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The election is more than a year away. There is no way to know who is going to win because there's too many variables.
I still think Perry could have a chance in the general but he needs to get it together and handle himself better in debates. That folksy southern charm can really go a long way with moderates, but it can also backfire if he reminds them of Bush. But I don't think most of the stuff being thrown at him so far would cripple him in the general, as long as this hunting camp thing goes away quietly like right the fuck now.
Romney has a solid chance of course, and so would Paul or Huntsman. Santorum is a serious lost cause and he always was. He just scowls all the time and plays the iconic neo-con on a stage full of people trying to rebuke that image. He can't debate...anybody...in a coherent way, and especially looks like an idiot when he attacks Ron Paul. He couldn't even debate that high school girl in that video many pages back. Bachmann is obviously done.
Gingrich has a lot of baggage and he kind of gives off that good ole boy establishment feeling but he is from the 90s and they balanced the budget so /shrug? Herman Cain gives some delightful sound bytes but also some pretty bad ones. With a sharper magnifying glass I don't know how well he will hold up, but like I said it's a year away.
People are still pining for Christie or Palin to jump in, for some reason.
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On October 03 2011 04:22 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
Well Rick Perry will pretty much be out of the race if the media picks up the name of his hunting camp, and I'm sure they will as Herman Cain just attacked him for it.
You'd think, but supposedly this will take the wind out of Cain's sails:
N-WordheadGate: Conservatives Are Outraged... at Herman Cain
![[image loading]](http://pixel.nymag.com/imgs/daily/intel/2011/10/03/03_southerncrosscainperrytweet.o.jpg/a_560x280.jpg)
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On October 04 2011 06:41 jon arbuckle wrote:Show nested quote +On October 03 2011 04:22 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
Well Rick Perry will pretty much be out of the race if the media picks up the name of his hunting camp, and I'm sure they will as Herman Cain just attacked him for it. You'd think, but supposedly this will take the wind out of Cain's sails: N-WordheadGate: Conservatives Are Outraged... at Herman Cain
Wow. I'm a conservative person but this reaction by "conservatives" is pretty dumb. If anyone running for public office used to go to a camp called "Niggerhead" then they've got some explaining to do. Perry's claim that he found the name offensive and he painted over it seems like a good explanation, although some anonymous people have a different version.
To criticize a black person like Cain for being offended by this is just straight up stupid.
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United States7483 Posts
On October 04 2011 02:09 xDaunt wrote:Show nested quote +On October 04 2011 02:05 Iskusstvo wrote:
Even from an outsider's point of view, all of the candidates look deeply unappealing. I think I would like Bachmann or Paul to win the primaries, just since they're almost totally unelectable. 2016 is going to be a far more important election, just because it will truly determine whether this ridiculous strain of partisanism will die off or get stronger and make the system actually ungovernable. Actually, 2012 will likely be the most important election in generations. Whoever wins is likely going to get the credit for reversing the decline of the American economy (presuming that there is a recovery), and that person's party will get FDR-like coattails to walk on for many elections to come.
Assuming of course that the winner doesn't eff it up even worse.
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On October 04 2011 06:54 ziggurat wrote:Show nested quote +On October 04 2011 06:41 jon arbuckle wrote:On October 03 2011 04:22 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
Well Rick Perry will pretty much be out of the race if the media picks up the name of his hunting camp, and I'm sure they will as Herman Cain just attacked him for it. You'd think, but supposedly this will take the wind out of Cain's sails: N-WordheadGate: Conservatives Are Outraged... at Herman Cain Wow. I'm a conservative person but this reaction by "conservatives" is pretty dumb. If anyone running for public office used to go to a camp called "Niggerhead" then they've got some explaining to do. Perry's claim that he found the name offensive and he painted over it seems like a good explanation, although some anonymous people have a different version. To criticize a black person like Cain for being offended by this is just straight up stupid.
Presumably you're Canadian-brand Conservative. Very different from US-brand Conservative.
Cain backtracked.
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/10/03/cain-im-not-playing-the-race-card-with-perry/?iref=allsearch
It's moments like this in the political process that makes me wonder why we're always so surprised we end up with candidates who don't represent our true values.
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I think its funny to see the people in here thinking that Obama doesn't have a chance in 2012. Yes, Obama is pretty unpopular right now but the Republicans have squandered their advantage on things like the debt limit and handling of taxes on the rich (hint: majority of americans want increased taxes on the uber wealthy) amongst other things. A lot of liberals are dissatisfied with Obama because they view his policies as centrist, almost conservative and thats driving his approval ratings down but these same liberals would NEVER vote for anyone with an R next to their name. Obama is arguably better at campaigning than at governing as well, he managed to come out of nowhere and beat Hillary and he has a huge war chest ready to fight whoever comes up next year.
Looking at the GOP contenders, the only ones I think would give Obama a run for his money are Romney and Huntsman. Huntsman would never win the nomination but if he did he would attract a lot of disaffected Obama voters who would otherwise not vote for the GOP. Romney could be dangerous for Obama but its very reminiscent of McCain, a so called RINO who has to shed his previous ideologies to hang with the crew. Its very telling that the current race is to find "anybody but Romney".
As for the other candidates..
Perry-Given his performance this last month, I'd say he's a no go.
Cain-Not winning nomination, black.
Bachmann - Crazy, too crazy even for the GOP. Would get demolished in the general.
Paul - Not really a Republican candidate, can't see him winning the nomination. Would get destroyed in the general as time and time again, Paul has his devoted voters and nobody else.
Santorum/gingrich/the rest - Nope.
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There's a new WashPo/ABC poll out today:
Romney: 25%
Perry: 17%
Cain: 17%
Gingrich: 9%
Paul: 9%
Bachman: 7%
Santorum: 2%
Huntsman: 1%
For those wondering, the next debate is on October 11.
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Barack Obama says we aren't better off than we were four years ago.
In other news, a "Barry Soetero" has joined the Republican National Committee as a messaging consultant.
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Republicans are obviously going to bite their tongue and elect Romney. Then they are going to chose some amazingly lame VP, as both sides always do. Then in the end Romney is going to struggle defending the fact that he did obamacare before Obama, is a Mormon, and isnt the incumbent. The demise of Obama is greatly exaggerated. After all, Romney is a guy whos been around and has already had his ass kicked by John McCain...
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On October 05 2011 05:20 DannyJ wrote:
Republicans are obviously going to bite their tongue and elect Romney. Then they are going to chose some amazingly lame VP, as both sides always do. Then in the end Romney is going to struggle defending the fact that he did obamacare before Obama, is a Mormon, and isnt the incumbent. The demise of Obama is greatly exaggerated. After all, Romney is a guy whos been around and has already had his ass kicked by John McCain...
I think you're underestimating the perfect storm of bullshit that Obama is going to be dealing with next year. Not only is he dealing with the bad economy, which, by all signs, is going to get worse, but his administration is also going to be balls deep into the Solyndra and "Fast and Furious" scandals that keep getting worse. Regarding the latter, I'm not sure that Eric Holder is going to last until the end of the year given the new evidence that has come out this week.
Let's not forget that democrats are basically losing everywhere right now (like NY09) and they have done nothing to stop the bleeding that began in 2009 (when republicans took the NJ and VA governorships).
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On October 05 2011 05:09 DeepElemBlues wrote:
Barack Obama says we aren't better off than we were four years ago.
In other news, a "Barry Soetero" has joined the Republican National Committee as a messaging consultant.
You might as well quote it in context.
STEPHANOPOULOS: There are so many people who simply don't think they're better off than they were four years ago. How do you convince them that they are?
OBAMA: Well, I don't think they're better off than they were four years ago. They're not better off than they were before Lehman collapsed, before the financial crisis, before this extraordinary recession that we're going through.
I think that what we've seen is that we've been able to make steady progress to stabilize the economy, but the unemployment rate is still way too high. And that's why it's so critical for us to make sure that we are taking every action we can take to put people back to work.
He's saying the recession that started before his administration is the cause, not his presidency (but that doesn't make a good soundbite for the republicans looking for the nomination... Obama hasn't been president for 4 years yet either...)
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On October 05 2011 05:09 DeepElemBlues wrote:
Barack Obama says we aren't better off than we were four years ago.
In other news, a "Barry Soetero" has joined the Republican National Committee as a messaging consultant.
Yeah, Obama's reelection line is going to be "I did everything I could to keep the country afloat, we'd be in a worse position now had I not been elected, and those republicans keep obstructing me from fixing the country. Just look at how they have refused to pass my jobs bill."
Nevermind that Obama won't even negotiate with republicans on the jobs bill, and it's senate democrats who are refusing to bring it up for a vote....
http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/obama-campaign-says-gop-blocking-jobs-bill-after-reid-blocks-jobs-bill_595022.html
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No one in America gives a shit about Solyndra and "fast and furious", in fact id wager 90% have no idea exactly what those are, although i agree if the economy does get way worse Obama could be cooked.
It's like Reverend Wright or William Ayers or ACORN. Certain people think its a big deal, but in the end no one really cares.
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On October 05 2011 05:44 DannyJ wrote:
No one in America gives a shit about Solyndra and "fast and furious", in fact id wager 90% have no idea exactly what those are, although i agree if the economy does get way worse Obama could be cooked.
It's like Reverend Wright or William Ayers or ACORN. Certain people think its a big deal, but in the end no one really does.
I generally agree with you. However, the difference with Solyndra and "Fast and Furious" is that outlets other than Fox News/talk radio are reporting on these stories. There's going to be a lot more national exposure this time around than there was with the Rev. Wright, Bill Ayers, or ACORN stories.
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On October 05 2011 05:41 xDaunt wrote:Show nested quote +On October 05 2011 05:09 DeepElemBlues wrote:
Barack Obama says we aren't better off than we were four years ago.
In other news, a "Barry Soetero" has joined the Republican National Committee as a messaging consultant. Yeah, Obama's reelection line is going to be "I did everything I could to keep the country afloat, we'd be in a worse position now had I not been elected, and those republicans keep obstructing me from fixing the country. Just look at how they have refused to pass my jobs bill." Nevermind that Obama won't even negotiate with republicans on the jobs bill, and it's senate democrats who are refusing to bring it up for a vote.... http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/obama-campaign-says-gop-blocking-jobs-bill-after-reid-blocks-jobs-bill_595022.html
If I'm reading that right, McConnel's action of asking for a unanimous vote, by lumping it in with some Chinese currency legislation, put Reid in the position of having to block it if they ever want to get it passed. Political posturing at its finest.
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On October 05 2011 05:49 Bibdy wrote:Show nested quote +On October 05 2011 05:41 xDaunt wrote:On October 05 2011 05:09 DeepElemBlues wrote:
Barack Obama says we aren't better off than we were four years ago.
In other news, a "Barry Soetero" has joined the Republican National Committee as a messaging consultant. Yeah, Obama's reelection line is going to be "I did everything I could to keep the country afloat, we'd be in a worse position now had I not been elected, and those republicans keep obstructing me from fixing the country. Just look at how they have refused to pass my jobs bill." Nevermind that Obama won't even negotiate with republicans on the jobs bill, and it's senate democrats who are refusing to bring it up for a vote.... http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/obama-campaign-says-gop-blocking-jobs-bill-after-reid-blocks-jobs-bill_595022.html If I'm reading that right, McConnel's action of asking for a unanimous vote, by lumping it in with some Chinese currency legislation, put Reid in the position of having to block it if they ever want to get it passed. Political posturing at its finest.
Ah, you're correct. Good catch.
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On October 04 2011 06:41 jon arbuckle wrote:Show nested quote +On October 03 2011 04:22 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
Well Rick Perry will pretty much be out of the race if the media picks up the name of his hunting camp, and I'm sure they will as Herman Cain just attacked him for it. You'd think, but supposedly this will take the wind out of Cain's sails: N-WordheadGate: Conservatives Are Outraged... at Herman Cain
WOW
The one time I think Herman Cain says something that isn't insane he catches all sorts of flak for it.
Not that it really matters, he will never get the nomination anyway.
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Yup. Solyndra sure is a big deal. The government lent $500 million to a company that went out of business. All these darn incentives and subsidies for alternative energy, that's destroying the economy, right? Right? Meanwhile:
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/04/business/04bptax.html
Oil companies are rolling on the floor laughing.
And the fast and furious business was dumb as all hell, but it's no Iran-Contra. I'm ambivalent about Holder's fate, I wanted him to prosecute bankers 
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There's a difference between Congress passing laws that subsidize an entire industry and the president subsidizing one company who apparently is a major donor of his -- particularly where there are ample warning signs that the company is in big financial trouble and makes for an incredibly poor investment.
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On October 05 2011 06:50 xDaunt wrote:
There's a difference between Congress passing laws that subsidize an entire industry and the president subsidizing one company who apparently is a major donor of his -- particularly where there are ample warning signs that the company is in big financial trouble and makes for an incredibly poor investment.
Those are kind of outrageous claims. It was the DoE that provided the actual funding at the end of the day, and the link to George Kaiser is weak at best. The problem is they doubled-down on an already bad gamble, thinking the best solution to Solyndra's existing financial problems (thus improve the chances of taxpayers getting their loan back) would be to throw more money at them.
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EPT
