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What would happen if US pulls out of SK and Japan? - Page 4

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NotSupporting
Profile Joined February 2008
Sweden1998 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-06-25 18:46:30
June 25 2011 18:45 GMT
#61
For people discussing a potential war between SK and NK I would just like to add that there is a war RIGHT NOW, SK and NK are officially still at war, a peace agreement was never reached only an agreement of ceasefire. Also, people thinking NK has nothing to threaten with anyway - NK has nuclear weapons and Seoul is very close to the border, these two factors are enough to create a huge disaster in case of resumed fighting
semantics
Profile Blog Joined November 2009
10040 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-06-25 18:52:32
June 25 2011 18:49 GMT
#62
The US Asian commitments currently are mostly for show the US military in it's current form could not effectively defend Taiwan if china ever decided to invade the commitments between japan and sk are more easily kept just because we wouldn't have to deal with china in which we would not be able to stop an invasion long enough till the pacific fleet could make it's way there along with the repositioning of the Atlantic fleet. In reality the US has been for a long time a 2 ocean navy it's likely in the next 50 years that it will be an indian ocean and pacific navy cutting down far the Atlantic fleet.

Personally i've always thought of the US military as our most socialist program, we give people education, place to live, money and healthcare in tern they follow though with the US commitments which basically say the US is the world police and if anyone wants to fight one of our allies they will fight us. Although currently alot of the defense budget is operational costs keeping things fueled up and paying those risking their lives, cutting back on the japan and SK commitment isn't super large as most of the military cost is in our active wars.

Also all the ppl on nk vs sk, the US and china has a strong interest in keeping nk as is a little buffer zone. The US waters on the issue is always more murky just becuase more people voice their opinion about matters but the US stance is on continued stalemate with sk on nk.
DeepElemBlues
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
United States5079 Posts
June 25 2011 18:50 GMT
#63
NK would lose a war against SK in about a few weeks because the US and Japan would fall on NK from the sea like a ton of bricks.

Unfortunately NK has more than 10,000 artillery pieces and rocket launchers in range of Seoul, yeah they'd lose but they'd tear Seoul to pieces.
no place i'd rather be than the satellite of love
jello_biafra
Profile Blog Joined September 2004
United Kingdom6637 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-06-25 18:52:49
June 25 2011 18:52 GMT
#64
I don't think it would be wise for the US to pull out of these countries, China is without doubt investing a lot in upgrading its military, including navy and airforce with the aim of creating a force that can rival that of the US and the intention of projecting their power further afield, pulling out would be an open invitation to China to take over these countries and others at some point. People are mentioning that Japan's army size is limited because of post-WW2 limitations but their defence force has been steadily building itself up over the years and the US is turning a blind eye because of North Korea, China and the Taiwan situation, they need strong allies and their own military assets in the region to maintain peace and order.

Given that the US not only has bases in SK but also helps supply the SK army and has strong ties with Japan and SK and encouraged them to make a defence pact with each other too, I don't think they'll be leaving any time soon.
The road to hell is paved with good intentions | aka Probert[PaiN] @ iccup / godlikeparagon @ twitch | my BW stream: http://www.teamliquid.net/video/streams/jello_biafra
Jibba
Profile Blog Joined October 2007
United States22883 Posts
June 25 2011 18:52 GMT
#65
On June 26 2011 02:04 exog wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 26 2011 01:59 Azarkon wrote:
On June 26 2011 01:56 Feridan wrote:
The world economic system basically needs one superpower to keep the global sea trading lanes open - used to be the British Empire that filled that role, but after the world wars the US discovered that it had to take over. They can't allow a regional power to shut down the Straits of Malacca, Straits of Hormuz, the Panama or Suez canals etc, since they are so dependent on them - and so is the rest of the world. We need the US to maintain that role. If they go all isolationist on us, all hell will break loose between up-and-coming powers seeking to take over in their own spheres of influence: russia in the arctic, china, japan and indonesia in the yellow sea and straits of malacca, brazil in the atlantic and panama, and turkey in the middle east (bab-el-mandeb, suez, hormuz).


If keeping the global sea lanes open is beneficial to the world economy, wouldn't that suggest they'd be kept open with or without a superpower police, since it'd be in the interests of each country to do so?


Stop being rational and sensible, this is international politics, money, sex, murders and all that jazz. "Benefits", "truth" and "reason" has nothing to do with this. Those concepts are far to advanced for the stone-age thought process of "the strongest is right".

If there's no enforcement, then the rational thing to do is to try and control your own sphere of power, before you're disadvantaged against someone else. The economic paradigm still hasn't proven itself against neo-realism.
ModeratorNow I'm distant, dark in this anthrobeat
zalz
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
Netherlands3704 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-06-25 19:53:32
June 25 2011 19:47 GMT
#66
On June 26 2011 03:50 DeepElemBlues wrote:
NK would lose a war against SK in about a few weeks because the US and Japan would fall on NK from the sea like a ton of bricks.

Unfortunately NK has more than 10,000 artillery pieces and rocket launchers in range of Seoul, yeah they'd lose but they'd tear Seoul to pieces.


Japan is within nuclear missiles range of North-Korea and NK hates Japan with a passion that rivals the US.

When a war breaks out they will use their artillery to fire at SK and launch their nuclear missiles at Japanese cities. And there is no reliable way to stop those missiles.


They are currently estimated to have around 5 nukes. Even if we take into account that their missiles might not be very accurate, is it really that hard to hit a Japanese major city? They are rather large targets where a missile being off by a kilometer doesn't mean that much, it's still going to kill a lot of people.

don't think it would be wise for the US to pull out of these countries, China is without doubt investing a lot in upgrading its military, including navy and airforce with the aim of creating a force that can rival that of the US and the intention of projecting their power further afield, pulling out would be an open invitation to China to take over these countries and others at some point. People are mentioning that Japan's army size is limited because of post-WW2 limitations but their defence force has been steadily building itself up over the years and the US is turning a blind eye because of North Korea, China and the Taiwan situation, they need strong allies and their own military assets in the region to maintain peace and order.


At this point China's army couldn't hope to stand against the US for any serious ammount of time. Infact no country in the world could hope to fight the current US army.

Thanks to Hollywood the idea of the mobile modern army has become imprinted in people's minds as being the standard. The American army is insanely well funded compared to any other army in the world.


Even if the Chinese army was to rival the US in terms of funding (currently the US spends something like 20x as much) then the difference in strength would come from experience. The US has experience in several wars whilst China has experience in rolling over Tibet.

The US army is more seasoned and more funded. It will be decades before the Chinese army can be considered equall to the US.


It's not even just a matter of funding, you still got the problem of what to buy with the money. The US has a massive war machine that is constantly creating new and highly modern weaponry. China doesn't have a similar structure.

In terms for a military industrial complex China is like a country that has no roads and the US like a country that has roads, railroads, highways and a fully functional air communication structure.
rickybobby
Profile Joined October 2010
United States405 Posts
June 25 2011 19:54 GMT
#67
china is pumping so much money into its military if the US pulled out china might be tempted to flex its muscles and try to assert moar control of the region.
Tatari
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
United States1179 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-06-25 20:02:43
June 25 2011 20:02 GMT
#68
On June 26 2011 01:56 Klipsys wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 26 2011 01:45 DeepElemBlues wrote:
If the US ever left SK and Japan, both SK and Japan would start enlarging their navies and there would be a naval arms race between them and China. That would be the biggest political change from the US leaving, Japan returning to its status as a premier naval power in the Pacific.



What the....

You know that japan hasn't had a standing army since WW2, and it's a violation of UN resolutions if they re-militarize


Wait, what happened to the JSDF? It's a military force. :I
A fed jungler is no longer a jungler, but a terrorist.
hookyelyak
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Egypt184 Posts
June 25 2011 20:02 GMT
#69
wont happen
life.parting.mkp.hero.rain.
jello_biafra
Profile Blog Joined September 2004
United Kingdom6637 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-06-25 20:27:43
June 25 2011 20:19 GMT
#70
On June 26 2011 04:47 zalz wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 26 2011 03:50 DeepElemBlues wrote:
NK would lose a war against SK in about a few weeks because the US and Japan would fall on NK from the sea like a ton of bricks.

Unfortunately NK has more than 10,000 artillery pieces and rocket launchers in range of Seoul, yeah they'd lose but they'd tear Seoul to pieces.


Japan is within nuclear missiles range of North-Korea and NK hates Japan with a passion that rivals the US.

When a war breaks out they will use their artillery to fire at SK and launch their nuclear missiles at Japanese cities. And there is no reliable way to stop those missiles.


They are currently estimated to have around 5 nukes. Even if we take into account that their missiles might not be very accurate, is it really that hard to hit a Japanese major city? They are rather large targets where a missile being off by a kilometer doesn't mean that much, it's still going to kill a lot of people.

Show nested quote +
don't think it would be wise for the US to pull out of these countries, China is without doubt investing a lot in upgrading its military, including navy and airforce with the aim of creating a force that can rival that of the US and the intention of projecting their power further afield, pulling out would be an open invitation to China to take over these countries and others at some point. People are mentioning that Japan's army size is limited because of post-WW2 limitations but their defence force has been steadily building itself up over the years and the US is turning a blind eye because of North Korea, China and the Taiwan situation, they need strong allies and their own military assets in the region to maintain peace and order.


At this point China's army couldn't hope to stand against the US for any serious ammount of time. Infact no country in the world could hope to fight the current US army.

Thanks to Hollywood the idea of the mobile modern army has become imprinted in people's minds as being the standard. The American army is insanely well funded compared to any other army in the world.


Even if the Chinese army was to rival the US in terms of funding (currently the US spends something like 20x as much) then the difference in strength would come from experience. The US has experience in several wars whilst China has experience in rolling over Tibet.

The US army is more seasoned and more funded. It will be decades before the Chinese army can be considered equall to the US.


It's not even just a matter of funding, you still got the problem of what to buy with the money. The US has a massive war machine that is constantly creating new and highly modern weaponry. China doesn't have a similar structure.

In terms for a military industrial complex China is like a country that has no roads and the US like a country that has roads, railroads, highways and a fully functional air communication structure.

I realize that, there are only 3 countries on earth that are really capable of projecting force all around the globe, the US, the UK and France and only the US can do it on a really substantial scale.

This is the reason China is investing huge amounts of money and resources into developing new fighters, aircraft carriers and methods of destroying carriers.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-12154991
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-13761711

A couple links on it, this isn't just me fear mongering or some shit, it's a genuine concern of US government officials.
The road to hell is paved with good intentions | aka Probert[PaiN] @ iccup / godlikeparagon @ twitch | my BW stream: http://www.teamliquid.net/video/streams/jello_biafra
MERLIN.
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
Canada546 Posts
June 25 2011 20:22 GMT
#71
On June 26 2011 02:30 DeepElemBlues wrote:
Show nested quote +
This isn't 1930, there is no way an "arms race" would emerge in the present day. Also there are severe restrictions on the Japanese military because of WWII.


Ummm, this is why China is upgrading their navy and air force and to a slightly lesser degree their army, there is no arms race.

Show nested quote +
What the....

You know that japan hasn't had a standing army since WW2, and it's a violation of UN resolutions if they re-militarize


Wrong...

And to people who think that Japan would be violating some UN resolution if they were to "re-militarize," totally wrong. Only Japanese law (specifically their constitution) restricts their military. Their constitution says they are not allowed to have any offensive forces whatsoever. That's why their army and navy and air force have "Self-Defense" in the title, that's the only constitutional thing for them to do, they're allowed to have "self-defense forces."

Japan has already become more and more right-wing in its foreign policy especially toward North Korea, if the US left Tokyo and Seoul would both be terrified of Pyongyang and would greatly increase their forces as a result. Japan does not like and is very suspicious of NK especially because of the decades of NK kidnapping random Japanese off Japanese beaches to train NK spies on how to act Japanese.

Japan can change its constitution whenever it wants.

Show nested quote +
have you ever heard of the suez crisis?? The US allowed the situation you're describing as not happening to happen


Ummm... wrong.

England and France approached Israel and said we're going to attack Egypt you should help us because hurting Egypt will help you in the short and long run. Israel said okay. England and France went to Eisenhower and said you should come too and he said no, and we can't support you in doing it. Don't do it. England and France did it and the US did not support them and forced London and Paris to accept a cease-fire when the USSR threatened to get involved. In England especially what the US did was viewed as the death knell of the British empire and was not very well received by the Brits.


Well, since you decided to rip apart peoples statements lets get one thing clear,
Ummm, this is why China is upgrading their navy and air force

This "navy" you speak of is a joke, and anyone informed knows this. That new carrier they have upgraded from a soviet warship, not even built themselves is touted as a "peice of junk" by the American military and the Pentagon, the thought that this is even strikingly an issue for "arms" discussion is behond me.

There is no country carrying a navy as superior as the United States navy, and there will be no arms race in Navy terms, especially from China. There is no arms race, there is the United States, who since its revolution has had over 20 major wars, and many minor conflicts. The nation is bred for war, was made by a war, and will continue to thrive in that regard. So don't pretend that there is a military race of arms, in anyway shape or form, you'll be kidding yourself. That being said, I think the country is failing because of this, and in that regard will either use the military to enforce its survival or there will be some economic global change which will bail them out, because I think with 14 trillion in debt, you pass a limit where it is impossible to surpass the interest, I'm confident that happened a long time ago before they pass 10trillion, because it's just been exponentially declining.

Nothing like privatizing banks and getting rid of regulation to really put yourself in debt.
"A bullet to the head will solve your problems."
Madkipz
Profile Blog Joined February 2010
Norway1643 Posts
June 25 2011 20:24 GMT
#72
are those bases present there so that if they are attacked then the US can claim self defence and help against the invaders if such and such happens?

its not like countries build and maintain military bases for no reason at all.
"Mudkip"
Medrea
Profile Joined May 2011
10003 Posts
June 25 2011 20:25 GMT
#73
Current logic is that without US presence in South Korea, North Korea with its 4th largest standing army in the world will rush across the DMZ and capture Seoul, South Korea in no time at all. Which would compromise US and South Korea's interests for obvious reasons.

Japan lacks an army that is capable of striking beyond its borders, as is decreed in the post war constitution.
twitch.tv/medrea
DannyJ
Profile Joined March 2010
United States5110 Posts
June 25 2011 20:31 GMT
#74
Bases in SK and Japan certainly are going nowhere, for obvious reasons. Maybe in a perfect, sensible world they wouldn't be there, but in the real world you put a military presence where military and economic threats exist.
Dr_Jones
Profile Joined March 2011
Norway252 Posts
June 25 2011 20:33 GMT
#75
On June 26 2011 03:45 NotSupporting wrote:
For people discussing a potential war between SK and NK I would just like to add that there is a war RIGHT NOW, SK and NK are officially still at war, a peace agreement was never reached only an agreement of ceasefire. Also, people thinking NK has nothing to threaten with anyway - NK has nuclear weapons and Seoul is very close to the border, these two factors are enough to create a huge disaster in case of resumed fighting


North Korea has nuclear DEVICES, although there is no credible evidence they possess the means of delivery, or the stability a nuclear weapons attack would require. Stop confusing facts.
wubwubwubwubwubwubwubwubwubwubwubwub I love me some dubstep wubwubwubwubwubwubwubwubwubwubwubwub
Happykola
Profile Joined March 2010
United Kingdom62 Posts
June 25 2011 20:37 GMT
#76
i'm not sure if it's accurate that japan wants us troops to stay, afaik the most recent japanese prime minister ran heavily on getting the americans off okinawa.
Ars long, Vita brevis, Occasio praeceps, Experimentum periculosum, Iudicium difficile
Klogon
Profile Blog Joined November 2002
MURICA15980 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-06-25 20:44:05
June 25 2011 20:41 GMT
#77
Too many people underestimate the SK military. Look at this graph that shows military spending and notice that North Korea is not even on the list bc their spending is too small compared to the rest. This is what happens when your GDP is so tiny.

http://www.economist.com/blogs/dailychart/2011/06/military-spending

So SK spends 2.8% of GDP while NK spends 15%+ and SK still spends more. And generally in modern warfare, the more you spend the better your military capabilities are.
Skullflower
Profile Joined July 2010
United States3779 Posts
June 25 2011 20:51 GMT
#78
On June 26 2011 01:56 Klipsys wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 26 2011 01:45 DeepElemBlues wrote:
If the US ever left SK and Japan, both SK and Japan would start enlarging their navies and there would be a naval arms race between them and China. That would be the biggest political change from the US leaving, Japan returning to its status as a premier naval power in the Pacific.



What the....

You know that japan hasn't had a standing army since WW2, and it's a violation of UN resolutions if they re-militarize


They have an incredibly high-tech and well equipped army but it's only for defensive purposes. And now their main focus has moved from Russia to China.
The ruminations are mine, let the world be yours.
Gryffes
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United Kingdom763 Posts
June 25 2011 20:59 GMT
#79
Absolutely nothing, except for saving a lot of money.
www.youtube.com/gryffes - Random Gaming Videos.
Swagalisk
Profile Joined April 2011
United States7 Posts
June 25 2011 21:00 GMT
#80
Just as a note. We will never "pull out" of Japan or South Korea. It doesn't matter who the President at the time; our pressence there is needed. Simply us being near by to "dangerous" countries keeps them in check.

For example, lets say North Korea does attack countries in that region. We could launch an offensive from Japan or South Korea the same day. As apposed to having to fight for a foot hold in that region, which could take some time.
"The worst thing I can be is the same as everybody else. I hate that." Arnold Schwarzenegger
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