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Iraq & Syrian Civil Wars - Page 55

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Please guys, stay on topic.

This thread is about the situation in Iraq and Syria.
FallDownMarigold
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
United States3710 Posts
June 13 2013 20:53 GMT
#1081
NYT update 6/13/13: "Syria has used chemical weapons against rebels, US and European officials conclude."

Not seeing any further info yet
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
June 13 2013 20:54 GMT
#1082
And it begins... I'll wait to see what France and the UK do first as they are the most gung ho to fight Assad it seems.
"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
June 13 2013 21:16 GMT
#1083
WASHINGTON — American and European intelligence analysts now believe that President Bashar al-Assad’s troops have used chemical weapons against rebel forces in the civil war in Syria, an assessment that will put added pressure on a deeply divided Obama administration to develop a response to a provocation that the president himself has declared a “red line.”

According to an internal memorandum circulating inside the government on Thursday, the “intelligence community assesses that the Assad regime has used chemical weapons on a small scale against the opposition multiple times in the last year.” President Obama said in April that the United States had physiological evidence that the nerve gas sarin had been used in Syria, but lacked proof of who used it and under what circumstances. He now believes that the proof is definitive, according to American officials.

But a flurry of high-level meetings in Washington this week only underscored the splits within the Obama administration about what actions to take to quell the fighting, which has claimed more than 90,000 people. The meetings were hastily arranged after Mr. Assad’s troops — joined by fighters from the militant group Hezbollah — claimed the strategic city of Qusayr and raised fears in Washington that large parts of the rebellion could be on the verge of collapse.


Source
"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
ImFromPortugal
Profile Joined April 2010
Portugal1368 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-06-13 21:52:15
June 13 2013 21:52 GMT
#1084
UPDATES

US military plan for arming Syrian rebels also calls for limited no-fly zone - @WSJ

Syria has used chemical weapons against rebels, US and European officials conclude - @nytimes

Sen. John McCain, on Senate floor, urges no-fly zone over Syria, US military aid - @cspan live video

'(Assad) is winning and the slaughter continues,' says @SenJohnMcCain. 'We can change this equation on the battlefield' - @cspan live video

White House: Up to 150 people have been killed by chemical weapons in Syria - @AP, @Reuters

White House: Will share information on Syrian chemical weapons with international partners, UN; will consult with Congress in coming weeks - @Reuters

White House says it will provide more assistance to Syrian opposition on political and military side in coming weeks - @Reuters

WH/NSC's Ben Rhodes: US still sees negotiated 'political settlement' in Syria as the 'preferable outcome' - @markknoller
Yes im
acker
Profile Joined September 2010
United States2958 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-06-13 22:26:03
June 13 2013 22:21 GMT
#1085
I'm tempted to say "here we go again", but it might be for real this time. Maybe. Possibly.

That said, if there's going to be armed intervention or weapons smuggling or whatnot, I hope we can turn the majority of it over to Western Europe.

Off-topic: been looking through LiveLeak...the Syria videos are a strange combination of horrifying, fascinating, and funny.
xDaunt
Profile Joined March 2010
United States17988 Posts
June 13 2013 22:46 GMT
#1086
I hope that whatever "military support" that Obama is planning to give the rebels is minimal. Let the Europeans and Arabs deal with the mess in Syria. That's their backyard. Besides, I highly doubt that whoever replaces Assad is going to be better than Assad as far as US interests are concerned.
EngrishTeacher
Profile Blog Joined March 2012
Canada1109 Posts
June 13 2013 23:22 GMT
#1087
Can we PLEASE get a reliable confirmation from a third party regarding the usage of chemical weapons? "The U.S. concluded" just isn't nearly good enough for me anymore.

I honestly thought the American people would be more wise to the tame and care more after Iraq.
Zaros
Profile Blog Joined September 2010
United Kingdom3692 Posts
June 13 2013 23:33 GMT
#1088
If they wanted to back the rebels they should have done it 2 or more years ago before AQ got involved properly, if they fully back the rebels now its just going to install an islamist government, probably best to get turkey to invade northern syria, set up a no fly zone and a humanitarian zone in northern syria and let AQ and Assad fight it out while we protect the civilians.
Dapper_Cad
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
United Kingdom964 Posts
June 13 2013 23:49 GMT
#1089
Dear industrial military complex. Publish the evidence then we'll talk again.
But he is never making short-term prediction, everyone of his prediction are based on fundenmentals, but he doesn't exactly know when it will happen... So using these kind of narrowed "who-is-right" empirical analysis makes little sense.
Thor.Rush
Profile Joined April 2011
Sweden702 Posts
June 13 2013 23:53 GMT
#1090
So they are basicallly implying that they will be willing to arm al qaeda sympathizers. Seems to me that they don't care whether or not the country will go into further chaos and eventually be run by who knows, as long as Assad falls which will weaken the iranians and hezbollah. That's just my guess on their intentions.
| SaSe | Naniwa |Stephano | LucifroN | Mvp | MarineKing | ByuN | Polt | MC | Parting |
Romantic
Profile Joined January 2010
United States1844 Posts
June 14 2013 00:14 GMT
#1091
No coincidence that the Syrian government makes gains and stands firm after a couple years, then suddenly they are accused of using chemical weapons last year. Just an excuse to begin attacking Syria or providing weapons to the rebels and Sunni jihadists.

Assad turned out to be much stronger and have much more public and foreign support than they had bargained for. It is clear letting the Syrians and Arabs/Iranians fight it out themselves won't lead to a regime loss, so the US government is going to begin hitting Assad in hopes it pushes the two sides to negotiate. I don't think they are gunning for an outright rebel victory unless they are complete idiots.

Not sure how anyone expects this to play out when their is no coherent opposition to Assad to even negotiate with.
DannyJ
Profile Joined March 2010
United States5110 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-06-14 01:55:20
June 14 2013 01:29 GMT
#1092
On June 14 2013 08:22 EngrishTeacher wrote:
Can we PLEASE get a reliable confirmation from a third party regarding the usage of chemical weapons? "The U.S. concluded" just isn't nearly good enough for me anymore.

I honestly thought the American people would be more wise to the tame and care more after Iraq.


The UK and France have been claiming they have evidence for the use of chemical weapons for a while now. They have also been more vocal about arming the rebels. The US has been pretty tame on the entire Syrian issue, comparatively, in regards to making claims.

Not to mention the UN is very involved in all of this.

Too bad any action from here will probably just make a total mess messier...
Koorb
Profile Joined March 2011
France266 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-06-14 02:40:37
June 14 2013 02:36 GMT
#1093
On June 14 2013 07:21 acker wrote:
That said, if there's going to be armed intervention or weapons smuggling or whatnot, I hope we can turn the majority of it over to Western Europe.


Don't hold your breathe. European nations have neither the will nor the capacity to achieve any kind of armed intervention by themselves at the moment. France and the UK are experienced in such matters, but they lack the firepower to deal with it (the only active aircraft carrier of the union, the Charles de Gaulle, is currently docked for maintenance, and both French and UK's military have been undergoing massive defense cuts during the last decade). Germany is not interested in taking a strong stance on this issue (since it doesn't impact on their external trade, and the German military doesn't have a true force projection capability anyway). Spain and Italy are completely exhausted by austerity (the Spanish navy was even forced to decommission its flagship the Príncipe de Asturias in February). Every other country in the union can hardly do anything outside of their own borders by themselves.

Hell, don't forget that, just a few months ago, only 3 European nations out of 27 responded to Mali's plea for help despite overwhelming consensus among them that an intervention was direly needed there, and despite the enemy being not anywhere near as tough as is the Syrian army backed by the Hezbollah right now.

As to weapons smuggling, despite all the verbal bravado from Hollande and Cameron (and now Obama), nobody wants to see a massive influx of weaponry ending up in the hands of the Al-Nosra front and of Al-Qaeda in Iraq, especially when many jihadist with European passports are reported to be in their ranks.

On June 14 2013 08:22 EngrishTeacher wrote:
Can we PLEASE get a reliable confirmation from a third party regarding the usage of chemical weapons? "The U.S. concluded" just isn't nearly good enough for me anymore.

I honestly thought the American people would be more wise to the tame and care more after Iraq.


For what it's worth, the newspaper Le Monde (largest French newspaper, which strongly opposed the US invasion of Iraq in 2003) has blood samples tainted with sarin that was gathered by their reporters on the Syrian battlefied, although they can't tell for sure if it was the governement or the rebels who used the gas.

On June 14 2013 10:29 DannyJ wrote:
Too bad any action from here will probably just make a total mess messier...


Indeed. Flying to the rescue of what is now mostly a sunni/salafist holy war against alaouites and shias is a recipe for disaster.
Liquipedia
Sub40APM
Profile Joined August 2010
6336 Posts
June 14 2013 03:57 GMT
#1094
Its not true until the US secretary of state testifies to this, not just some faceless NYT leak. I demand to see something like this:


hypercube
Profile Joined April 2010
Hungary2735 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-06-14 06:27:52
June 14 2013 06:25 GMT
#1095
French and British citizens need to reign in their governments before they do something stupid. They (or I guess I could say we) tried to destabilize Assad's government. It looked good at first but now it seems to be running out of steam. An intervention will just prolong the conflict with no assurances after Assad's gone. Unless the EU is willing to make commitments similar to what they did in Bosnia this could only end badly.
"Sending people in rockets to other planets is a waste of money better spent on sending rockets into people on this planet."
-Archangel-
Profile Joined May 2010
Croatia7457 Posts
June 14 2013 06:52 GMT
#1096
Last I heard Syria is backed by Russia, and I don't think Russia is going to allow outside military involvement.
deichkind
Profile Joined September 2010
Sweden347 Posts
June 14 2013 07:27 GMT
#1097
On June 14 2013 15:52 -Archangel- wrote:
Last I heard Syria is backed by Russia, and I don't think Russia is going to allow outside military involvement.



Here is the most important part in this story. Russia. Its really to bad people aint getting this. Uk, France, US, none of them cares about Syria relly. They dont give a shit about the people dying. This is a power play against Russia, like during the cold war. If they cared they wouldve supported rebels from the begining or provide substantial humantarian aid but they didnt do the first and are not doing the second.

There is no scenario in which this was had a positive outcome. Its too late.

No weapons and more aid to refugees is whats needed and it would prove that they accually care about the people like claim. Too bad thats not going to happen.

DrCooper
Profile Joined August 2010
Germany261 Posts
June 14 2013 08:42 GMT
#1098
On June 14 2013 07:46 xDaunt wrote:
I hope that whatever "military support" that Obama is planning to give the rebels is minimal. Let the Europeans and Arabs deal with the mess in Syria. That's their backyard. Besides, I highly doubt that whoever replaces Assad is going to be better than Assad as far as US interests are concerned.

Sadly, Europe alone does not have the means to do it. All countries in Europe including the UK in total spends less on military than the US. Additonally most countries in Europe won't participate (like Germany).
Deleted User 137586
Profile Joined January 2011
7859 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-06-14 08:49:53
June 14 2013 08:47 GMT
#1099
If we go for speculation, as seems to be the case, I'd say it's Hezbollah and Iran sending troops to help Assad that tipped the scales. Too bad Obama wants to do as little as possible so he went the Afghanistan route: let's give them weapons, and hope for the best. Which makes for the best possible way to create well-armed radicalized groups that have no positive attachment to the US.

Of course, Rasmussen immediately shouted high and low that NATO thinks Syria is in breach of Int. law (source: his twitter), so France and Britain might become more proactive.

P.S. @deichkind: I have no idea how you think this is a power-play against Russia. Russia is poking its nose in the issue because it's worried about the trend of international intervention against rulers that mistreat their people (i.e., Putin is worried someone might take a closer look at his own practices) and it's a good way to make a bit of cash on arms sales, but otherwise the issue has very little to do with Russia.
Cry 'havoc' and let slip the dogs of war
Dapper_Cad
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
United Kingdom964 Posts
June 14 2013 09:31 GMT
#1100
On June 14 2013 09:14 Romantic wrote:
Assad turned out to be much stronger and have much more public and foreign support than they had bargained for. It is clear letting the Syrians and Arabs/Iranians fight it out themselves won't lead to a regime loss, so the US government is going to begin hitting Assad in hopes it pushes the two sides to negotiate. I don't think they are gunning for an outright rebel victory unless they are complete idiots.


A U.S. precondition to negotiation is the removal of the Assad regime. Assad has been willing to negotiate for some time now but given that precondition it's unlikely to happen until he has effectively lost.

On June 14 2013 11:36 Koorb wrote:
As to weapons smuggling, despite all the verbal bravado from Hollande and Cameron (and now Obama), nobody wants to see a massive influx of weaponry ending up in the hands of the Al-Nosra front and of Al-Qaeda in Iraq, especially when many jihadist with European passports are reported to be in their ranks.


Nobody except other radical Sunni dictatorships in the region. Like Saudi Arabia and Qatar who have been arming the rebels with western blessings since the start of the conflict.

On June 14 2013 17:47 Ghanburighan wrote:
P.S. @deichkind: I have no idea how you think this is a power-play against Russia. Russia is poking its nose in the issue because it's worried about the trend of international intervention against rulers that mistreat their people (i.e., Putin is worried someone might take a closer look at his own practices) and it's a good way to make a bit of cash on arms sales, but otherwise the issue has very little to do with Russia.


So we're all about freedom, democracy and Syrian self determination and Russia is about selling guns. Really?

On June 14 2013 11:36 Koorb wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 14 2013 08:22 EngrishTeacher wrote:
Can we PLEASE get a reliable confirmation from a third party regarding the usage of chemical weapons? "The U.S. concluded" just isn't nearly good enough for me anymore.

I honestly thought the American people would be more wise to the tame and care more after Iraq.


For what it's worth, the newspaper Le Monde (largest French newspaper, which strongly opposed the US invasion of Iraq in 2003) has blood samples tainted with sarin that was gathered by their reporters on the Syrian battlefied, although they can't tell for sure if it was the governement or the rebels who used the gas.


I have to say, for me at least, that's kind of important.

We can be fairly sure that chemical weapons were used, the science is there from what I've read. Then the science took a trip through U.S. / U.K. spook land and came out as "Definitely the guy we don't like did it". Call me a cynic but I'd really like to see how they came to that conclusion.
But he is never making short-term prediction, everyone of his prediction are based on fundenmentals, but he doesn't exactly know when it will happen... So using these kind of narrowed "who-is-right" empirical analysis makes little sense.
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