Iraq & Syrian Civil Wars - Page 384

On December 14 2016 05:17 Wrath wrote:


And neither ending the rebellion can no longer work under the current circumstances. This is not contest who cries more get the toy. If the people had a reason to take him down in 2011. Now they have a thousand reason to do so.

Now that Aleppo phase is over, this may be an opportunity to recalculate everything and reset the rebellion on a correct track under a specific leadership.

@xM(Z you are correct. Hamah 1982 also played a role in that. The father's rule and then his son was boiling up but people never had the courage to move. The Arab Spring started and this was a chance to get things moving.

On December 14 2016 05:23 RvB wrote:

With all the atrocities committed in his name Assad staying is hardly possible either. Even if he wins this war Syria is a ticking time bomb.

On December 14 2016 06:22 RvB wrote:

No shit. My point is that even if the civil war ends in an Assad victory the fractures in society and violence will stay as long as he's in power. Assad has too much blood on his hands.

On December 14 2016 07:16 Redox wrote:

And violence will stay if he disappears. The rifts between the different ethnicities / religions are now just way too big. This country is done.

On December 14 2016 05:17 Wrath wrote:


And neither ending the rebellion can no longer work under the current circumstances. This is not contest who cries more get the toy. If the people had a reason to take him down in 2011. Now they have a thousand reason to do so.

Now that Aleppo phase is over, this may be an opportunity to recalculate everything and reset the rebellion on a correct track under a specific leadership.

@xM(Z you are correct. Hamah 1982 also played a role in that. The father's rule and then his son was boiling up but people never had the courage to move. The Arab Spring started and this was a chance to get things moving.

On December 14 2016 18:08 xM(Z wrote:
- going again to the war, no one wants Assad to rule forever. US&co. want him dead(better safe than sorry) and russians want a transition period after which Assad will step down from power and will be replaced by some form of constitutional democracy.

Exclusive: Senior negotiator describes rejection of alleged proposal – since which time tens of thousands have been killed and millions displaced

Russia proposed more than three years ago that Syria’s president, Bashar al-Assad, could step down as part of a peace deal, according to a senior negotiator involved in back-channel discussions at the time.

Former Finnish president and Nobel peace prize laureate Martti Ahtisaari said western powers failed to seize on the proposal. Since it was made, in 2012, tens of thousands of people have been killed and millions uprooted, causing the world’s gravest refugee crisis since the second world war.

Ahtisaari held talks with envoys from the five permanent members of the UN security council in February 2012. He said that during those discussions, the Russian ambassador, Vitaly Churkin, laid out a three-point plan, which included a proposal for Assad to cede power at some point after peace talks had started between the regime and the opposition.

But he said that the US, Britain and France were so convinced that the Syrian dictator was about to fall, they ignored the proposal.

“It was an opportunity lost in 2012,” Ahtisaari said in an interview.

On December 14 2016 19:09 xM(Z wrote:
they don't care who rules Syria as long as it remains their ally. there were official offers for this: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/sep/15/west-ignored-russian-offer-in-2012-to-have-syrias-assad-step-aside admittedly things evolved and what was valid then might not be valid now(as far as Assad willingness goes) but it still remains true that russians do not care who rules Syria.

Mistura made the proposal for Assad to remain in office during a transitional period to the Saudi-backed HNC, during a meeting late on Friday.

"He proposed that President Assad would appoint three vice presidents that we choose, and that he would transfer his military and political prerogatives to them," an HNC source said.

"Effectively, Assad would stay in a ceremonial position. But we categorically rejected the proposal," the source added.

Syrian president Bashar al-Assad said he is ready to step aside if his "departure is the solution". Assad was speaking in an interview with Iran's Khabar TV.

The West has previously insisted that Assad should leave office as part of any solution to the Syrian civil war. In recent weeks though Western leaders have softened their stance, with British Prime Minister David Cameron claiming that that Assad could remain in office as part of a transitional government. However, Cameron described Assad as a "butcher" earlier today.

"I say once again that if my departure is part of the solution, I will never hesitate to do that," said Assad, adding though that "this is decided only by the people".

Faisal al-Yafai, a leading commentator from the United Arab Emirates, says Russia "played its cards in Syria very cleverly, but miscalculated in one aspect".

"They assumed that once the (Assad) regime felt secure, it would be more willing to negotiate. In fact, the opposite has happened”.

"There’s a limit to the pressure that Russia can exert on Assad. Assad absolutely will not go quietly -- and certainly not when there is no real alternative to him, even within the regime," says al-Yafai.

Robert Ford, the former U.S. ambassador to Syria and now a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington, agrees that Russia may not be able to compel Assad to go.

The secret police backbone of Assad’s rule remains intact, he says, and "Assad seems confident again, after his much more sober tone last summer. The Russians may have helped him too much, such that Assad can maintain control of key cities and roads for a long time".

Ford also drew attention to the competition over Syria between Russia and Iran, Assad’s two main allies. Moscow’s emphasis is on its traditional relations with the Syrian military establishment, while Tehran focusses on the militia network it built with Hezbollah to shore up the regime.

“Assad is plenty smart to know how to play one country off against the other. I am not even sure Russia would test its heavy pressure capacity against that of Iran in Damascus. The Russians know they might lose", Ford said.

- the context is Middle East arab states; you compare what Assad family did with what other arab rulers did. for you to compare Syria with what you now call modern Western states, is at least disingenuous if not totally delusional. in that context, Syria was the most modern and secular arab state(i'm including here human rights issues) and as far as Assad's killings go, Saudis killed more people in lawful public executions and they're a west friend and closest ally.