Merkel is doing the only thing she can do. Some banks are already making bet on how Greece, Spain, Portugal and Italy will leave the euro zone, the "effect" being more or less 10% unemployment and a reduction of GPD from 5 to 10% for the first year.
I doubt some of the numbers though, it's way biased considering a country like Ireland is doing quite good recently (considering the situation they were in 3 years ago).
I'm astonished at how the germans media are so pro merkel. Just read some line out of the spiegel online: "Yes for now, Merkel knows the dealing isn't done", "Merkel tactical victory, Smart concession for a seasoned negotiator". What the... It's interesting to put that in comparaison to Krugman's or Aglietta's view on the situation, who says Merkel policy is "suicidal".
On July 02 2012 05:55 WhiteDog wrote: Merkel is doing the only thing she can do. Some banks are already making bet on how Greece, Spain, Portugal and Italy will leave the euro zone, the "effect" being more or less 10% unemployment and a reduction of GPD from 5 to 10% for the first year.
I doubt some of the numbers though, it's way biased considering a country like Ireland is doing quite good recently (considering the situation they were in 3 years ago).
I'm astonished at how the germans media are so pro merkel. Just read some line out of the spiegel online: "Yes for now, Merkel knows the dealing isn't done", "Merkel tactical victory, Smart concession for a seasoned negotiator". What the... It's interesting to put that in comparaison to Krugman's or Aglietta's view on the situation, who says Merkel policy is "suicidal".
So? The gdp has to shrink to account for the decade long debt induced growth. They arent making bets. They are looking at the situation and come to the only logical conclusion. The Euro wont survive. The economies tied together with the euro are way to different to ever make it work. Sure we can keep throwing money at the problems and make it last 1 or 2 years with the hope of inflating all the debt away (won't work), but the hit will be even worse after that. Schäuble and Merkel dont have anything up their sleeve. They just think this will lead to a political union and they are willing to trash our economy for their dream. Our leaders are breaking german laws and european laws every day. Merkel may be the worst chancellor we ever had. She changes her position almost weekly and basically lied from day one. We won't take these oligarchic decision from the european union much longer.
Yes. Merkel is definitely the worst German Chancellor ever. I cant think of anyone worse than her, breaking laws, instituting debilitating economic reforms, threatening neighbors and smaller countries into an ever tighter political organization...Merkel...the worst!
I'm astonished at how the germans media are so pro merkel. Just read some line out of the spiegel online: "Yes for now, Merkel knows the dealing isn't done", "Merkel tactical victory, Smart concession for a seasoned negotiator". What the... It's interesting to put that in comparaison to Krugman's or Aglietta's view on the situation, who says Merkel policy is "suicidal".
That's because Krugman, Aglietta and the German media are all defending beliefs that are the core of their identities, beliefs they hold with near-religious fervor. A big part of the German identity as the German and world media has created it is to spend wisely, save, not take risks, Krugman is a slave to the spending half of Keynesian economics, and Aglietta is still angry that the USSR isn't around anymore. They all believe their beliefs are indicative of their superior intelligence and moral character, so naturally they're going to be as strong as they can in their advocacy.
Yes. Merkel is definitely the worst German Chancellor ever. I cant think of anyone worse than her, breaking laws, instituting debilitating economic reforms, threatening neighbors and smaller countries into an ever tighter political organization...Merkel...the worst!
I think you are confusing germany with the third reich. I didnt not say she was the worst chancellor since the weimar republic did I?
"This seems to be the position Greece is in right now. Other European countries are giving or loaning Greece money to cover its deficit on the condition that Greece cut back on its welfare. But the citizens of Greece regard that welfare as a right and are rioting in the streets in protest. Several other European countries evidently are approaching the same crisis. The United States is not yet in crisis, but it has a one and a half trillion-dollar deficit (the government is borrowing 40¢ for every dollar it spends), a difference that cannot be sustained over time any more than Greece’s could be sustained."
Merkel is probably the biggest problem for the EURO, since she is saying "over my dead body" about a redistribution of finance in the EURO-zone.
Using these money on "growth" is probably like pieing the pants to keep warm and pretty irresponsible.
The real problem, however, is the amazing fact that both sides are sticking their heads in the sand to avoid having to take a stance on the real issue of financial heterogenity of the EURO-zone.
From what I understand, the meeting was 100 % side-stepping the real issues. If someone is loosing, it is the EURO-zone in particular and the EU in general. It is not specific countries or politicians loosing some poker analoguous game.
On July 02 2012 05:25 Yuljan wrote: Good Game Germany. Our politicians are selling us out...
What exactly was she supposed to do? Veto everything and accept that the Euro (and the EU to some extent) breaks apart? That would probably be even worse in the short run. Frankly there is no easy solution. We've tried austerity, and it doesn't seem to be working. Maybe the new program will actually help (and yes I sound hopelessly naive here, I know) but so far no one seems to propose a better solution.
If the Euro fails, it's only a matter of time until the EU falls apart as well.
Without the EU, how long do you suppose will it take until the next European war?
Before the EU, there was barely any peaceful time in Europe. And third world countries like Romania and Serbia are certainly not going to forget that the EU basically treats them like Europe's toilet.
The solution is the strict removal of undesirable behaviour in general.
The EURO won't be broken up, it will just stay in its malformed state. The Turkish immigration flood didn't work either, but they won't go away, too. The EURO is basically the same. Doesn't fit in but will stay nevertheless.
In the long run the Euro will break up, regardless of political reforms or whatever. The label Euro might still be existent in 50 years, but the currency will either be worth much less than today or it won't be around anymore at all.
On July 02 2012 23:49 kafkaesque wrote: This annoys me so much...
If the Euro fails, it's only a matter of time until the EU falls apart as well.
Without the EU, how long do you suppose will it take until the next European war?
Before the EU, there was barely any peaceful time in Europe. And third world countries like Romania and Serbia are certainly not going to forget that the EU basically treats them like Europe's toilet.
Lol, manner bro. Romania ain't no 3rd world country.
On June 30 2012 20:35 Gaga wrote: if that's the case, your advice would be to create a zombie bank without any worth fully dependend of the money from the government ? (and ultimately people's taxes who had nothing to do with it ?)
while the owners (ultimately who is responsible) get a free ride ?
yeah ....
if the goverment should give someone money its the "savers" after the bank did go bankrupt.
Can't have savers without lenders or we are talking about a seriously imbalanced core business model for the bank.
If you let the stocks go down in flames, the owners will also take huge private financial losses for their roles because of all the options and stock-package-bonuses they get as part of their salary. The "bailouts" in the US, did infact tank the stocks and therefore hurt the bosses on their economy. Some of the bad economic decisions were however bought out by the government and that is the true bail. The banks did survive, but at a high cost for investors and therefore also bosses.
Without having all dimensions in the equation you end up with some misnomer like free market good, regulated market bad. With all dimensions in play none of these are good and you can only hope to limit the bad effects of free market and regulated market, by mixing them.
What is worth to discuss is what constitutes and how to enact. "Crime and Punishment" and it will ultimately be what will determine the risk-willingness of the market.
The only pain is that the real problem of huge worldwide dept will never be solved without painful deleveraging.
Politicians don't want that to happen because it would mean a depression. So they take on even more debt on the shoulders of the last few that are atill able to borrow more and push the problem in the future while making it bigger.
On July 02 2012 05:55 WhiteDog wrote: Merkel is doing the only thing she can do. Some banks are already making bet on how Greece, Spain, Portugal and Italy will leave the euro zone, the "effect" being more or less 10% unemployment and a reduction of GPD from 5 to 10% for the first year.
I doubt some of the numbers though, it's way biased considering a country like Ireland is doing quite good recently (considering the situation they were in 3 years ago).
I'm astonished at how the germans media are so pro merkel. Just read some line out of the spiegel online: "Yes for now, Merkel knows the dealing isn't done", "Merkel tactical victory, Smart concession for a seasoned negotiator". What the... It's interesting to put that in comparaison to Krugman's or Aglietta's view on the situation, who says Merkel policy is "suicidal".
So? The gdp has to shrink to account for the decade long debt induced growth. They arent making bets. They are looking at the situation and come to the only logical conclusion. The Euro wont survive. The economies tied together with the euro are way to different to ever make it work. Sure we can keep throwing money at the problems and make it last 1 or 2 years with the hope of inflating all the debt away (won't work), but the hit will be even worse after that. Schäuble and Merkel dont have anything up their sleeve. They just think this will lead to a political union and they are willing to trash our economy for their dream. Our leaders are breaking german laws and european laws every day. Merkel may be the worst chancellor we ever had. She changes her position almost weekly and basically lied from day one. We won't take these oligarchic decision from the european union much longer.
I suppose it's too hard for you to understand why they are making bet. I will try to explain to you : they are betting on who is going to get out of the euro, italy, spain, portugal, greece, all of them ? They also all only consider the only way to face the debt is through huge unemployment or devaluation, which is stupid.
Inflation would be a good start to lower debts, sadly Germany freak out everytime people talk about inflation because they instantly remember Weimar's hyperinflation.
On July 02 2012 05:55 WhiteDog wrote: Merkel is doing the only thing she can do. Some banks are already making bet on how Greece, Spain, Portugal and Italy will leave the euro zone, the "effect" being more or less 10% unemployment and a reduction of GPD from 5 to 10% for the first year.
I doubt some of the numbers though, it's way biased considering a country like Ireland is doing quite good recently (considering the situation they were in 3 years ago).
I'm astonished at how the germans media are so pro merkel. Just read some line out of the spiegel online: "Yes for now, Merkel knows the dealing isn't done", "Merkel tactical victory, Smart concession for a seasoned negotiator". What the... It's interesting to put that in comparaison to Krugman's or Aglietta's view on the situation, who says Merkel policy is "suicidal".
So? The gdp has to shrink to account for the decade long debt induced growth. They arent making bets. They are looking at the situation and come to the only logical conclusion. The Euro wont survive. The economies tied together with the euro are way to different to ever make it work. Sure we can keep throwing money at the problems and make it last 1 or 2 years with the hope of inflating all the debt away (won't work), but the hit will be even worse after that. Schäuble and Merkel dont have anything up their sleeve. They just think this will lead to a political union and they are willing to trash our economy for their dream. Our leaders are breaking german laws and european laws every day. Merkel may be the worst chancellor we ever had. She changes her position almost weekly and basically lied from day one. We won't take these oligarchic decision from the european union much longer.
I suppose it's too hard for you to understand why they are making bet. I will try to explain to you : they are betting on who is going to get out of the euro, italy, spain, portugal, greece, all of them ? They also all only consider the only way to face the debt is through huge unemployment or devaluation, which is stupid.
Inflation would be a good start to lower debts, sadly Germany freak out everytime people talk about inflation because they instantly remember Weimar's hyperinflation.
That is the only way.Yes they will all leave the euro in the end and france will most likely drop out of the euro too. I give you guys 1-2 years max before your bond yields start climbing. But no use arguing with french socialsts. I am really grateful the french showed us how to ruin your country in a decade. Thank you for the lesson!
On July 02 2012 05:55 WhiteDog wrote: Merkel is doing the only thing she can do. Some banks are already making bet on how Greece, Spain, Portugal and Italy will leave the euro zone, the "effect" being more or less 10% unemployment and a reduction of GPD from 5 to 10% for the first year.
I doubt some of the numbers though, it's way biased considering a country like Ireland is doing quite good recently (considering the situation they were in 3 years ago).
I'm astonished at how the germans media are so pro merkel. Just read some line out of the spiegel online: "Yes for now, Merkel knows the dealing isn't done", "Merkel tactical victory, Smart concession for a seasoned negotiator". What the... It's interesting to put that in comparaison to Krugman's or Aglietta's view on the situation, who says Merkel policy is "suicidal".
So? The gdp has to shrink to account for the decade long debt induced growth. They arent making bets. They are looking at the situation and come to the only logical conclusion. The Euro wont survive. The economies tied together with the euro are way to different to ever make it work. Sure we can keep throwing money at the problems and make it last 1 or 2 years with the hope of inflating all the debt away (won't work), but the hit will be even worse after that. Schäuble and Merkel dont have anything up their sleeve. They just think this will lead to a political union and they are willing to trash our economy for their dream. Our leaders are breaking german laws and european laws every day. Merkel may be the worst chancellor we ever had. She changes her position almost weekly and basically lied from day one. We won't take these oligarchic decision from the european union much longer.
I suppose it's too hard for you to understand why they are making bet. I will try to explain to you : they are betting on who is going to get out of the euro, italy, spain, portugal, greece, all of them ? They also all only consider the only way to face the debt is through huge unemployment or devaluation, which is stupid.
Inflation would be a good start to lower debts, sadly Germany freak out everytime people talk about inflation because they instantly remember Weimar's hyperinflation.
If EU increases inflation, it devalues pension funds of all European taxpayers ( everybody who paid into national social safety funds). Don't you know, or don't you care?
On July 02 2012 23:49 kafkaesque wrote: This annoys me so much...
If the Euro fails, it's only a matter of time until the EU falls apart as well.
Without the EU, how long do you suppose will it take until the next European war?
Before the EU, there was barely any peaceful time in Europe. And third world countries like Romania and Serbia are certainly not going to forget that the EU basically treats them like Europe's toilet.
You mean before nuclear weapons. There won't be any war solely because of that.
On July 02 2012 05:55 WhiteDog wrote: Merkel is doing the only thing she can do. Some banks are already making bet on how Greece, Spain, Portugal and Italy will leave the euro zone, the "effect" being more or less 10% unemployment and a reduction of GPD from 5 to 10% for the first year.
I doubt some of the numbers though, it's way biased considering a country like Ireland is doing quite good recently (considering the situation they were in 3 years ago).
I'm astonished at how the germans media are so pro merkel. Just read some line out of the spiegel online: "Yes for now, Merkel knows the dealing isn't done", "Merkel tactical victory, Smart concession for a seasoned negotiator". What the... It's interesting to put that in comparaison to Krugman's or Aglietta's view on the situation, who says Merkel policy is "suicidal".
So? The gdp has to shrink to account for the decade long debt induced growth. They arent making bets. They are looking at the situation and come to the only logical conclusion. The Euro wont survive. The economies tied together with the euro are way to different to ever make it work. Sure we can keep throwing money at the problems and make it last 1 or 2 years with the hope of inflating all the debt away (won't work), but the hit will be even worse after that. Schäuble and Merkel dont have anything up their sleeve. They just think this will lead to a political union and they are willing to trash our economy for their dream. Our leaders are breaking german laws and european laws every day. Merkel may be the worst chancellor we ever had. She changes her position almost weekly and basically lied from day one. We won't take these oligarchic decision from the european union much longer.
I suppose it's too hard for you to understand why they are making bet. I will try to explain to you : they are betting on who is going to get out of the euro, italy, spain, portugal, greece, all of them ? They also all only consider the only way to face the debt is through huge unemployment or devaluation, which is stupid.
Inflation would be a good start to lower debts, sadly Germany freak out everytime people talk about inflation because they instantly remember Weimar's hyperinflation.
If EU increases inflation, it devalues pension funds of all European taxpayers ( everybody who paid into national social safety funds). Don't you know, or don't you care?
It also devalues the debt (by a lot more, because the debt even in germany is way higher than the pension funds) so I don't know, why not using 1% of what you will get by devaluating the debt through inflation to furnish the pension funds or something ?
On July 02 2012 05:55 WhiteDog wrote: Merkel is doing the only thing she can do. Some banks are already making bet on how Greece, Spain, Portugal and Italy will leave the euro zone, the "effect" being more or less 10% unemployment and a reduction of GPD from 5 to 10% for the first year.
I doubt some of the numbers though, it's way biased considering a country like Ireland is doing quite good recently (considering the situation they were in 3 years ago).
I'm astonished at how the germans media are so pro merkel. Just read some line out of the spiegel online: "Yes for now, Merkel knows the dealing isn't done", "Merkel tactical victory, Smart concession for a seasoned negotiator". What the... It's interesting to put that in comparaison to Krugman's or Aglietta's view on the situation, who says Merkel policy is "suicidal".
So? The gdp has to shrink to account for the decade long debt induced growth. They arent making bets. They are looking at the situation and come to the only logical conclusion. The Euro wont survive. The economies tied together with the euro are way to different to ever make it work. Sure we can keep throwing money at the problems and make it last 1 or 2 years with the hope of inflating all the debt away (won't work), but the hit will be even worse after that. Schäuble and Merkel dont have anything up their sleeve. They just think this will lead to a political union and they are willing to trash our economy for their dream. Our leaders are breaking german laws and european laws every day. Merkel may be the worst chancellor we ever had. She changes her position almost weekly and basically lied from day one. We won't take these oligarchic decision from the european union much longer.
I suppose it's too hard for you to understand why they are making bet. I will try to explain to you : they are betting on who is going to get out of the euro, italy, spain, portugal, greece, all of them ? They also all only consider the only way to face the debt is through huge unemployment or devaluation, which is stupid.
Inflation would be a good start to lower debts, sadly Germany freak out everytime people talk about inflation because they instantly remember Weimar's hyperinflation.
That is the only way.Yes they will all leave the euro in the end and france will most likely drop out of the euro too. I give you guys 1-2 years max before your bond yields start climbing. But no use arguing with french socialsts. I am really grateful the french showed us how to ruin your country in a decade. Thank you for the lesson!
No thats not true, safings are alot higher then the debt still. At least in the netherlands they are, and i asume in germany as well. If inflation is an atractive solution depends on who is in debt and who has the safings..
Inflation is realy not a way to solve annything though and this should be easy to understand.
EPT![[image loading]](http://cdn1.spiegel.de/images/image-368108-galleryV9-tixv.jpg)
