NBA Offseason Thread 2009 - Page 22

Rockets still have options without Yao
Faced with the possibility of losing Yao, the Rockets could bounce back better than most
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By John Hollinger
ESPN.com
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Plan B.

It's something not enough NBA teams talk about, and maybe more of them should. Because in a league where the whims of injuries mean franchise players can be here today, gone tomorrow, vague concepts like "cap flexibility" and "luxury tax planning" can become hugely important overnight.

The Houston Rockets are perhaps the league's best example of this. Three years ago they had two All-Stars in Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming, but lost in the first round of the playoffs. Two years ago they lost Yao late in the season, still ripped off 22 straight wins, and nearly won the division before, again, losing in the first round of the playoffs.

This year, they lost McGrady at midyear, then lost Yao in the playoffs, and somehow split the final four games of the series against the world champion Lakers without both -- even though they had $25 million in salaries going up against L.A's $75 million.

The reason? By carefully managing their cap and luxury tax situation, they put themselves in position to always have a Plan B. By the end of last year, Houston had so many decent role players, fill-ins and one-year contracts on the roster that it could compete with the league's best even after losing McGrady, Yao and Dikembe Mutombo.

Aaron Brooks, Carl Landry, Luis Scola, Kyle Lowry, Von Wafer and Chuck Hayes were all rotation players for the Rockets last season -- and all of them were chosen 24th or later in their respective drafts and made less than $3.5 million last season. Hayes and Wafer weren't drafted at all, but Hayes started the last four games of the Laker series while Wafer scored double figures twice in the final three games.

By focusing not only on Plan A but also Plans B and C, the Rockets built in enough roster flexibility to compete anyway even with two maximum contract players sidelined.

And it's a good thing, because this year they may end up around Plan E before it's all said and done.

McGrady is already done for much of the coming season, if not all of it, after undergoing microfracture knee surgery in the offseason. And now comes word that Yao's recovery from a broken foot isn't going according to plan; Rockets team doctor Tom Clanton told the Houston Chronicle on Monday that "the injury has the potential for him missing this next season and could be career threatening."

Yao will have more tests and the Rockets are staying quiet until they know the results, but obviously this throws a huge monkey wrench into their plans for next season right as free agency opens up.

Re-signing free agent forward Ron Artest, for one example, makes a lot more sense if he can be paired with a healthy Yao and one or two other new pieces to make a run at a championship. But if keeping him means a potential dip into the luxury tax and the team isn't capable of winning the title, then it's pointless -- in fact, it's worse, as a multiyear deal for Artest would cut into their potential cap space in 2010.

That's the other part of the equation -- Yao's foot woes change the entire game as far as Houston's future. Up 'til now, the presumption was that Yao would opt out of his deal next summer, the Rockets would pony up the cash to re-sign him to another long-term deal, and that would be that.

Now?


Now a whole range of possibilities has opened up, both for good and bad. Yao presumably wouldn't opt out of a guaranteed $17 million if he played an injury-riddled season on one leg, which eliminates one variable from Houston's future plans.

But it adds others, in part because the Rockets have been so good at keeping Plan B options alive. Houston could have more than $20 million in cap space next year, potentially allowing an overnight rebuild; additionally, the Rockets have a copious lack of poisonous contracts aside from Yao and McGrady and multiple contributors at nearly every position, making them an extremely flexible trade partner.

Going forward, one option Houston could pursue is the Donnie Walsh approach, focusing on the star-studded 2010 free agent market. Doing so would mean essentially sitting out of this year's free-agent market, letting Artest go and offering only one-year deals or inexpensive multiyear deals to spare parts (retaining Wafer, also a free agent, might be more easily attained). While the Rockets have specialized in getting decent players on such deals, the odds of getting a true impact player out of this are stacked against them, and the result would most likely be a win total in the 30s or low 40s.

However, Houston's odds of hitting the free-agent jackpot are higher than most teams'. First, Yao would either be back on his feet in 2010-11 or offer a mammoth expiring contract that could be traded for more help; either way a prospective free agent wouldn't be joining an empty cupboard, especially with the multitudes of contributing role players I mentioned above.

Additionally, players love Houston. This always surprises people (like, um, me) given how many ordinary citizens can't wait to flee the place, but several NBA players spend their offseasons in Houston. Texas' lack of state income taxes is another inducement, as is, I would presume, the Yao halo regarding endorsement opportunities in the world's most populous country. Also, some suspect the Houston market may be especially alluring to players who hail from Texas, especially those who play in Canada for a losing team.

This approach offers the most abrupt exit from the Yao-McGrady nucleus, but it comes at a cost of essentially punting the 2009-10 season.

The other approach might be called "assume the best and plan for the worst." This would entail planning on Yao being available for at least part of the 2009-10 season and the Rockets making an honest go of contending once he's back. Presumably this would involve signing or trading for a quality big man to hold down the center spot while Yao is out and serve as a sixth man when he's returned.

It would also entail either re-signing Artest or acquiring an equivalent talent, and converting McGrady's $23 million whopper of an expiring contract into players who could provide some immediate help. The drawback, however, is that such moves would considerably cut into their space in the coveted 2010 market and might eliminate it entirely.

Finally, there's another factor to consider: The luxury tax. It's one thing to go over it when Yao is healthy and everyone is excited about taking the Lakers to seven games; it's another when $40 million of contracts might be on the sidelines and only about $35 million on the court. The Rockets would almost certainly go over if they re-signed Artest and Wafer, and would go far above it if they signed a veteran big man, making the option I outlined above as expensive to their present as it is to their future.

In fact, we may already have seen a window into the Rockets' thinking on draft day, when Houston already knew Yao's situation. The Rockets spent a midlevel exception's worth of owner Les Alexander's dough -- roughly $6 million -- acquiring three second-round picks that day. One wonders if this was in lieu of spending on the real midlevel exception, and if it signaled that the Donnie Walsh plan is more in vogue barring a jaw-dropping offer for McGrady.

Other evidence of this approach was left on the cutting room floor Thursday -- the Rockets were rumored to be involved in several offers involving McGrady, Shane Battier (owed more than $7 million in 2011), and the pursuit of assets like the second overall pick and Spanish point guard Ricky Rubio; we have no idea how much fire was behind that smoke since none of those deals were consummated, but it's worth noting.

As free agency opens this week, keeping an eye on Houston will clue you in to the Rockets' strategy. If they're wooing Artest and other coveted veteran wings (Anthony Parker, Shawn Marion, Josh Childress) and working the phones for a big man, then it's full-steam ahead with or without Yao.

And if not? Take it as a signal that they're getting prepped for the summer of 2010, with shopping McGrady likely the main personnel activity between now and then.

Either way, it's a tribute to their roster management of the past three years that they still have so many credible options going forward. The Rockets might be able to make the playoffs with two max contract players missing the entire season, and that would be amazing. Or they could emerge from next summer rebuilt overnight, which would be equally amazing.

That they can do either owes to the fact that they've always left the door open for a Plan B, and a Plan C, and so on. If Yao Ming's injury costs him the season or even beyond, that's a crushing blow. But it's one Houston has built itself to recover from relatively quickly. Few other franchises could say the same thing.