EPTJune 26th -- Diablo III Patch 1.0.3a – v.1.0.3. 10235 - P…
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Jasarn
Australia101 Posts
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gerd1022
United States58 Posts
On June 27 2012 01:08 serum321 wrote: There is your problem, you are just getting unlucky on rares. If you counted blues/whites it would be closer to the actual value. I disagree. 2000 of an item type should be enough to get a fairly accurate estimate of the drop rate, and if it is 8% ilvl 63, then he should have gotten ~160. (i ran the statistics, the standard deviation of ilvl63 items for 2000 total items is 12, so the 95% confidence interval is 160 +/- 24 items) The quality of the item shouldn't matter, if 100,000 white items dropped while he was farming those 2000 rares, then ~8000 of those should have been ilvl 63, which doesnt change the statistics for the rares. | ||
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kethers
United States719 Posts
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serum321
United States606 Posts
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FallDownMarigold
United States3710 Posts
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heishe
Germany2284 Posts
On June 27 2012 01:38 serum321 wrote: But the quality of the item does matter. It does not state rare droprate is 8% ilvl 63, it states item droprate is 8% ilvl 63. It wouldn't matter if it was a sample size of 10,000 rares because at no point are we discussing just rares. You guys obviously don't understand the math underlying this. If it's an 8% chance across all item types, then it must be 8% on all rares as well. | ||
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crms
United States11933 Posts
On June 27 2012 01:44 FallDownMarigold wrote: what was the old %chance to drop iLvl63's (white, blue, yellow, etc.) in A3 and in A4, respectively? it's probably listed somewhere but I didn't see it when i did a *brief* search blizzard never confirmed but it seemed to be ~20-25% based on various users data collection. | ||
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Rayeth
United States883 Posts
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Grantiere
United States129 Posts
On June 27 2012 01:54 heishe wrote: You guys obviously don't understand the math underlying this. If it's an 8% chance across all item types, then it must be 8% on all rares as well. Blizzard never stated that it was an 8% chance for all item qualities, just an 8% aggregate drop rate. It could be a 10% drop rate for whites, 4% for blues, and 2% for rares, and come out to a weighted 8% rate for all items. | ||
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fishjie
United States1519 Posts
On June 27 2012 01:25 Jasarn wrote: So... where did my auctions go post-patch? ditto my items are gone my bids are gone i hope this is just a temporary "hiccup" and not a massive blizzard trololol | ||
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Teddyman
Finland362 Posts
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heartlxp
United States1258 Posts
On June 27 2012 02:13 Grantiere wrote: Blizzard never stated that it was an 8% chance for all item qualities, just an 8% aggregate drop rate. It could be a 10% drop rate for whites, 4% for blues, and 2% for rares, and come out to a weighted 8% rate for all items. that would be retarded though, the #s they give would have no meaning if you don't give basic assumptions (even distribution across all item types). | ||
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Oldfool
Australia394 Posts
On June 27 2012 02:14 fishjie wrote: ditto my items are gone my bids are gone i hope this is just a temporary "hiccup" and not a massive blizzard trololol AH just went offline agian for me so they're probably fixing some more stuffs...hopefully | ||
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crajittok
27 Posts
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Juicyfruit
Canada5484 Posts
On June 27 2012 02:16 heartlxp wrote: that would be retarded though, the #s they give would have no meaning if you don't give basic assumptions (even distribution across all item types). Not to mention MF changes the ratio of white/blue/rare so it wouldn't even be a constant 8% if that were the case, unless the ilevel are somehow scaled to respond differently to MF values (ilevel 60 being more likely to be bumped up a rarity level by MF than ilevel63 etc..) but that just seems like a contrived system. | ||
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HardlyNever
United States1258 Posts
On June 27 2012 02:13 Grantiere wrote: Blizzard never stated that it was an 8% chance for all item qualities, just an 8% aggregate drop rate. It could be a 10% drop rate for whites, 4% for blues, and 2% for rares, and come out to a weighted 8% rate for all items. This is not how the loot works. It works by having a base item, which has a chance of being increased in quality (this chance can be increased by magic find), just like D2. They said it in the reddit AMAA: http://us.battle.net/d3/en/blog/6317360/6317360#magicfind | ||
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Two_DoWn
United States13684 Posts
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crms
United States11933 Posts
On June 27 2012 02:29 Two_DoWn wrote: I find it VERY hard to believe that act 3-4 had anywhere close to 20% chance to find lvl 63, let alone 25%. you also said you love the new loot system because you can farm act1. Something leads me to believe you were never very far into the endgame. 20-25% was very real and anyone who was consistantly and efficiently farming pre-patch acts 3/4 can tell you the same. | ||
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tmonet
United States172 Posts
On June 27 2012 02:29 Two_DoWn wrote: I find it VERY hard to believe that act 3-4 had anywhere close to 20% chance to find lvl 63, let alone 25%. there was a post from someone on this site claiming that in his experience farming inferno ponies the drops were ~50% level 60 req (to salvage into inferno mats). If this is accurate (and it's the only pre-1.03 post i've seen discussing drop rates [as opposed to a post-1.03 post discussing pre-1.03 drop rates; these are obviously colored with new information]) then a 20% drop rate would mean that over 1/3 of the ilvl 61+ drops were 63, which, frankly, makes no sense. Nobody has a statistically significant amount of pre-patch drop data anywhere, afaik. All we have is anecdotes that ony is deep breathing more, so the old drop rate must have been at LEAST 20%. Worse is the 'LOL U WERENT IN A3 SO YOU CANT DISMISS MY EVIDENCE AS ANECDOTAL' bullshit that everyone pulls. This is functionally identical to saying someone cannot challenge your claim that you turned into a spaceship and flew to mars because you weren't there. ed: for the record, I was farming a3/4/inferno ponies 1.03. | ||
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Parametric
Canada1261 Posts
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