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Biden wins, and Dems can just ignore Trump tweeting inanities and watch confused speeches instead of deeply irritating speeches. His VP has a good shot at 2024, and that VP could be a very attractive candidate to progressives (this part TBD)
Biden loses, and a progressive candidate wipes the floor of the other Dem candidates in 2024. Write your own ticket. The young Dem voter overwhelmingly goes for Bernie’s brand of politics. The current crop with another 4 years of age follows the trend of increased turnout. The party, having lost with Clinton and Biden against a very beatable candidate, will be debilitated.
Win-win. Yes, I’m partly ignoring the “Trump is literally killing people/the environment” who will hate the next four years worse. Overall, win-win.
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Given the races left and proportional earning of delegates the gapnis far to big for just narrowing the lead
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On March 18 2020 08:31 semantics wrote:Given the races left and proportional earning of delegates the gapnis far to big for just narrowing the lead
Without anything really happening in the last week or so, I'd be a little skeptical of why the two polls are so far apart.
Anyways, the math is such that Biden before tonight needed 50.7% of remaining delegates to end with a majority of delegates.
After tonight he could lose every single remaining contest (by relatively narrow margins) and still finish with a majority of delegates. That's not to mention a handful of other upcoming states like Georgia (whenever the hell we actually hold the primary), Louisiana, Pennsylvania where he's also heavily favored which further reduce the % he needs in other contests.
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Well, Florida is looking like it will be a pretty nasty delegate beating as anticipated. I am curious to see if this will have any impact on the posts I see elsewhere with "only X% of the delegates have been allocated so far, he totally still has a chance" and "less than half the states have voted." At this point I think he needs something like a 65/35 share in the rest of the contests? Assuming Arizona/Illinois pan out as expected. The perils of having a reasonable proportional delegate system...
At this point I wonder if he will even get a plurality in any of the remaining states. That would really hurt-as is he is likely to go into the convention with fewer delegates than he did in 2016, but with much more pulling of the platform left during the race so that is probably worthwhile. But I can't help but think he risks the remaining contests being seen as a refutation of his policies...which they really aren't, I think.
Really mainly wondering at this point whether Sanders and Biden will consider diverting campaign funds to assist with the pandemic. Spending (at least direct campaign spending) certainly hasn't done jack all for either candidate in the contests thus far.
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Leverage is important from a negotiation perspective obviously, but I don't think staying in necessarily allows for more leverage. Getting walloped all the way to the finish line doesn't exactly feel like a position of strength.
There's also something to be said for the optics and goodwill earned of conceding now, which appears more graceful and also allows the Democratic party & friends to turn towards November.
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2 months of lockdown and maybe Democrats won't be willing to intentionally nominate a candidate that will ensure we will still not have an adequate healthcare system for the next Corona Virus.
Bernie should stay in
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Basically every country in the throes of coronavirus offers a form of universal coverage (some are even actually single payer) and every single has had their healthcare system pushed to the limit. Except Taiwan (because Taiwan numbah one) and Singapore.
Not to mention that there are public health implications of continuing the primaries. Obviously people will vote no matter what and it's their right, but continuing this puts more people at risk than otherwise.
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On March 18 2020 10:16 ticklishmusic wrote:
Basically every country in the throes of coronavirus offers a form of universal coverage (some are even actually single payer) and every single has had their healthcare system pushed to the limit. Except Taiwan (because Taiwan numbah one) and Singapore.
Not to mention that there are public health implications of continuing the primaries. Obviously people will vote no matter what and it's their right, but continuing this puts more people at risk than otherwise.
They should definitely be delayed, and should have been today instead of used to solidify Biden's claim imo. But our lack of healthcare and basic worker rights has unquestionably exacerbated our situation.
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After this primary, no matter what, we can say young people will never vote. It's as simple as that. Bernie after 3 years of trump is truly the best case scenario. Pack it up folks, we're fucking useless.
GG
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United Kingdom13775 Posts
On March 18 2020 13:05 Mohdoo wrote:
After this primary, no matter what, we can say young people will never vote. It's as simple as that. Bernie after 3 years of trump is truly the best case scenario. Pack it up folks, we're fucking useless.
GG
It's definitely really unfortunate, but even by around New Hampshire it seemed to be clearly the case. Older folks always come out to vote, but younger people... just don't. It seems to be clear who tends to get their way time after time.
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On March 18 2020 13:05 Mohdoo wrote:
After this primary, no matter what, we can say young people will never vote. It's as simple as that. Bernie after 3 years of trump is truly the best case scenario. Pack it up folks, we're fucking useless.
GG
I'm going to choose to take an alternative read that they've rejected electoral politics and are just waiting for the middle aged folks to stop threatening to call the cops on them for doing something about it.
Let's see how people feel as the precariousness of their middle-class security sets in amid this pandemic and maybe the inadequacy of Biden and his politics will set in, then again been waiting for that to happen with Trump supporters for years so I'm not holding my breath.
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On March 18 2020 13:27 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +On March 18 2020 13:05 Mohdoo wrote:
After this primary, no matter what, we can say young people will never vote. It's as simple as that. Bernie after 3 years of trump is truly the best case scenario. Pack it up folks, we're fucking useless.
GG I'm going to choose to take an alternative read that they've rejected electoral politics and are just waiting for the middle aged folks to stop threatening to call the cops on them for doing something about it.
I'm more inclined to think we're completely fucking useless, but to each their own. Regardless, Bernie will likely drop soon. This wasn't a loss, this was a blowout. And with Corona stealing the show, no one even cares. People saw Biden was gonna win and stopped paying attention when Corona got spicy. Bernie doesn't even have an audience at this point.
I still hope Bernie is president of course but I'm tuning out now. It's been real.
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United Kingdom13775 Posts
It's hard to know how parties are going to realign in the near future. The way I see it, there's about three possibilities:
1. Biden is going to be as tone-deaf as Hillary and choose an absolutely awful running mate a la Kaine who will appeal to nobody, and leave the Sanders base feeling completely screwed over again. Could lead to a loss if they learned so little.
2. Biden picks someone so-so, and gets lukewarm support from both moderates and progressives who want to get rid of Trump. The incompetence of this current administration finally has reared its ugly head, so if Biden hasn't completely lost it he should win. Party largely shifts to the right; might open up the possibility of a Republican approach that hopscotches over them and tries to win over a more leftist base?
3. Biden incorporates some meaningful left-leaning stuff into his campaign; if so, Senator Bernie Sanders is probably going to be a very important part of that future.
Once Trump is out of the picture, people are going to have to see that Biden is no prize either. He'll be the same sort of status quo conservative that Obama was with a fraction of the charisma, which leaves plenty of room for some new populist movement to take form. Preferably one that rejects the sort of corporatism that is ubiquitous within our society, because it does seem that whether or not people want to vote for Bernie, a very wide swath of the population is starting to realize that he is far more right than anyone gave him credit for.
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I truly think Kaine was only possible from someone as blind and arrogant as Clinton. She was a uniquely terrible pile of garbage as a candidate.
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The interesting stat about these primary results seems to be that Biden keeps winning with barely any money or ads, and that voter mobilisation if anything seems to help him, not Sanders. Young voters don't appear to be turning out for Sanders which in my opinion puts a pretty big nail into the sort of rhetoric about a left-leaning populist candidate. The progressives in the US simply appear to be a rather small group of people with a well-defined ceiling.
Also, another point against populism is that Trump, in contrast to conventional wisdom, was perceived by voters to be less consistently conservative than Clinton was perceived to be liberal, he actually was significantly less likely to be considered conservative in polls than the last few Republican presidents. (IIRC something like 40% to 60% respectively).
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On March 18 2020 14:40 Nyxisto wrote:
The interesting stat about these primary results seems to be that Biden keeps winning with barely any money or ads, and that voter mobilisation if anything seems to help him, not Sanders.
This is a completely misleading stat because the media is 100% behind Biden. It is free support that won't show up in any of this
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On March 17 2020 06:14 xM(Z wrote:
it's Clinton. he's waiting for Bernie to concede before announcing her; else, he might screw himself out of a win.
If it was Clinton, whole election thrown in an instant... The right would come out in droves to vote against her... and a substantial amount of moderates might do the same again despite all the fuckery and idiocy the country has been through.
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On March 18 2020 14:00 LegalLord wrote:
It's hard to know how parties are going to realign in the near future. The way I see it, there's about three possibilities:
1. Biden is going to be as tone-deaf as Hillary and choose an absolutely awful running mate a la Kaine who will appeal to nobody, and leave the Sanders base feeling completely screwed over again. Could lead to a loss if they learned so little.
2. Biden picks someone so-so, and gets lukewarm support from both moderates and progressives who want to get rid of Trump. The incompetence of this current administration finally has reared its ugly head, so if Biden hasn't completely lost it he should win. Party largely shifts to the right; might open up the possibility of a Republican approach that hopscotches over them and tries to win over a more leftist base?
3. Biden incorporates some meaningful left-leaning stuff into his campaign; if so, Senator Bernie Sanders is probably going to be a very important part of that future.
Once Trump is out of the picture, people are going to have to see that Biden is no prize either. He'll be the same sort of status quo conservative that Obama was with a fraction of the charisma, which leaves plenty of room for some new populist movement to take form. Preferably one that rejects the sort of corporatism that is ubiquitous within our society, because it does seem that whether or not people want to vote for Bernie, a very wide swath of the population is starting to realize that he is far more right than anyone gave him credit for. I don't see how Republicans can leapfrog the Democrats if they keep moving right when the Republicans themselves have been consistently pulled further and further right by their own voters.
That's why we have Trump, because a plurality of Republican voters wanted someone more openly far right then the GOP was looking to offer them.
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EPT
