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If this thread turns into a USPMT 2.0, we will not hesitate to shut it down. Do not even bother posting if all you're going to do is shit on the Democratic candidates while adding nothing of value.
Rules:
- Don't post meaningless one-liners.
- Don't turn this into a X doesn't stand a chance against Trump debate.
- Sources MUST have a supporting comment that summarizes the source beforehand.
- Do NOT turn this thread into a Republicans vs. Democrats shit-storm.
This thread will be heavily moderated. Expect the same kind of strictness as the USPMT. |
On March 18 2020 13:46 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On March 18 2020 13:27 GreenHorizons wrote:On March 18 2020 13:05 Mohdoo wrote:
After this primary, no matter what, we can say young people will never vote. It's as simple as that. Bernie after 3 years of trump is truly the best case scenario. Pack it up folks, we're fucking useless.
GG I'm going to choose to take an alternative read that they've rejected electoral politics and are just waiting for the middle aged folks to stop threatening to call the cops on them for doing something about it. I'm more inclined to think we're completely fucking useless, but to each their own. Regardless, Bernie will likely drop soon. This wasn't a loss, this was a blowout. And with Corona stealing the show, no one even cares. People saw Biden was gonna win and stopped paying attention when Corona got spicy. Bernie doesn't even have an audience at this point. I still hope Bernie is president of course but I'm tuning out now. It's been real.
tbf if I (as a young first time voter) saw Bernie won Iowa and Democrats just said "nah you don't get to win even though everyone can see the math says you do" I'd think voting was a joke too.
EDIT: Going to be a lot of people very angry about our incompetent government killing their parents, grand parents, etc... by way of their negligent response to corona virus. Hopefully they don't believe voting for Biden is still acceptable after that (and seeing his mental state).
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I think there are tons of systematic reasons that make voting difficult for young people, and while I wouldnt say the US is designed to depress the youth vote, I would say that our system has had some fingers on the scale to depress minority community turn out, which is likely to be poorer, which coincides with young people who have two jobs and dont have potentially 7 hours to spare on a week day to vote. Where as older people would have more stable employment, with opportunities to take time off to vote, etc.
Americans also seem to just love playing the team game. I dont actually think enough people give two shits what politicians are, or do, or say so long as their color wins the game.
In any case, the US' population and election system fucking sucks and it deserves what it gets.
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On March 18 2020 08:06 Danglars wrote:
Win-win. Yes, I’m partly ignoring the “Trump is literally killing people/the environment” who will hate the next four years worse. Overall, win-win.
Biden loses, and a progressive candidate wipes the floor of the other Dem candidates in 2024.
Yes this is a possibility. The crisis has a big socio-economic impact on the long term,keeping 2024 in mind.
Demographics will also be effected to some extend.
1-In absolute terms the richer part of the population is loosing more then the bottom end of the population,who simply do not have as much to lose (in absolute terms).
This specially goes for the people between the top 10% bracket and the top 40% bracket.
But despite the (semi) rich and middle class loosing more in absolute terms,inequality overall will rise in relative terms. (for example,a part of middle class could drop to a lower class and the lower class itself will also drop to a lower level). At least as far as i can judge it right now.
Inequality can be very big before people change their voting patern,specially if the lower end of the population still has a pretty reasonable life, but it does have some limit. This is a factor which could push the population towards the left.
2-There is also another factor or possibility,which is that in times of economic hardship and crisis solidarity in society can actually decrease instead of increase,(this despite the fact that we are all in this together).
This could lead to a very unpredictable outcome where the voters can move towards the extremes on both ends of the spectrum even more,as history has shown.
Then there is the option of biden winning,a sort of middle of the road outcome. Trying to more or less keep the political and socio-economical status quo,possibly preventing a further polarization of society.
The extremes on both ends of the spectrum might see this as an opportunity for their side. (See 2),but such a scenario does come with considerable risk because of its unpredictable outcome and the extremes in the positions they represent. Possibly leading to a very polarized and less stable society in the long run.
Considering the above,Biden winning doesnt seem like the worst outcome from almost any perspective.
About the young voters:i think after all this is over they will participate in the voting process much more then they do now. It has become clear to them how important it is.
The above is all speculation,some random thoughts. A lot will depend on how this crisis plays out in the next 1-2 years and that is virtually impossible to predict right now. The range of possible outcomes is very big.
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On March 18 2020 20:36 pmh wrote:Show nested quote +On March 18 2020 08:06 Danglars wrote:
Win-win. Yes, I’m partly ignoring the “Trump is literally killing people/the environment” who will hate the next four years worse. Overall, win-win. Biden loses, and a progressive candidate wipes the floor of the other Dem candidates in 2024. Yes this is a possibility. The crisis has a big socio-economic impact on the long term,keeping 2024 in mind. Demographics will also be effected to some extend. 1-In absolute terms the richer part of the population is loosing more then the bottom end of the population,who simply do not have as much to lose (in absolute terms). This specially goes for the people between the top 10% bracket and the top 40% bracket. But despite the (semi) rich and middle class loosing more in absolute terms,inequality overall will rise in relative terms. (for example,a part of middle class could drop to a lower class and the lower class itself will also drop to a lower level). At least as far as i can judge it right now. Inequality can be very big before people change their voting patern,specially if the lower end of the population still has a pretty reasonable life, but it does have some limit. This is a factor which could push the population towards the left. 2-There is also another factor or possibility,which is that in times of economic hardship solidarity in society can actually decrease instead of increase,(this despite the fact that we are all in this together). This could lead to a very unpredictable outcome where the voters can move towards the extremes on both ends of the spectrum even more,as history has shown. Then there is the option of biden winning,a sort of middle of the road outcome. Trying to more or less keep the political and socio-economical status quo,possibly preventing a further polarization of society. The extremes on both ends of the spectrum might see this as an opportunity for their side. (See 2),but such a scenario does come with considerable risk because of its unpredictable outcome and the extremes in the positions they represent. Possibly leading to an very polarized and a less stable society in the long run. Considering the above, Biden winning doesnt seem like the worst outcome from almost any perspective.
Except the one where we simply can't do enough about climate change because we squandered our last chance with Biden and society as we know it collapses altogether in ~40 years.
Might not even take that long for a virus like CV (or worse) and famine/drought to overlap in a way that brings about that collapse even sooner.
EDIT: I think Biden plans on picking Gretchen Whitmer as his VP btw
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Given that Sanders losing to 2016 Clinton hasn't led to Sanders beating 2020 Biden, I'm skeptical that Sanders losing to 2020 Biden will lead to a progressive necessarily beating the 2024 Democratic moderate candidate (it probably won't be Sanders vs. Biden again... they'll both be too old). If Sanders came around 20 years later, when the majority of his progressive base were older (and fewer people still cared about the taboo label of "socialism"), I think he'd win the nomination and even the presidency. But he was ahead of his time, and I don't know of a natural successor to his progressive movement, because nobody's been in the game as long as him or has the support he does. Rather than the Democratic moderate candidate losing the 2024 primary (or even the 2028 primary) to a true progressive, I think what'll happen is that the Democratic establishment's views will continue to be pulled to the left in an effort to slowly accommodate progressivism. The Overton window will continue to shift leftwards; we just don't know how long it will take for us to catch up with the other first-world countries. We already saw that start to happen over the past 4 years, with moderate liberals slowly supporting universal healthcare and living wages, which were not seriously part of the discussion until Sanders and other progressives started pushing for them. Assuming our country and world manage to bounce back from our short-term global pandemic of covid-19 and our long-term global pandemic of the climate crisis, I suspect Bernie Sanders will go down in history as an unsung hero.
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Are there any exit polls/demographic breakdowns of the last 3 primaries?
The media seems to be trying as hard as they can to just sort of sweep what just happened under the rug and move on from the illegitimate primaries that just happened.
So I haven't been able to find any of the burning questions I had going into it, like who is voting during a pandemic, what the hell are they doing voting, and what is the demographic breakdown. It feels like young people stayed home while boomers lack self preservation and went out in droves, but I have no idea because no one apparently has any data.
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On March 18 2020 21:53 Logo wrote:
Are there any exit polls/demographic breakdowns of the last 3 primaries?
The media seems to be trying as hard as they can to just sort of sweep what just happened under the rug and move on from the illegitimate primaries that just happened.
So I haven't been able to find any of the burning questions I had going into it, like who is voting during a pandemic, what the hell are they doing voting, and what is the demographic breakdown. It feels like young people stayed home while boomers lack self preservation and went out in droves, but I have no idea because no one apparently has any data.
The exit polls are even less likely to be informative or meaningful now than ever before (the average person is 100% not going to talk with a stranger for an extended period of time). There are some phone exit polls from yesterday, though, that are in line with all the other ones suggesting late deciders are going to Biden IIRC and the Hispanic edge for Sanders was as expected not present in Florida. Something like 25% of people are voting are by mail in some states, as well, so both are less useful than ever.
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On March 18 2020 21:58 TheTenthDoc wrote:Show nested quote +On March 18 2020 21:53 Logo wrote:
Are there any exit polls/demographic breakdowns of the last 3 primaries?
The media seems to be trying as hard as they can to just sort of sweep what just happened under the rug and move on from the illegitimate primaries that just happened.
So I haven't been able to find any of the burning questions I had going into it, like who is voting during a pandemic, what the hell are they doing voting, and what is the demographic breakdown. It feels like young people stayed home while boomers lack self preservation and went out in droves, but I have no idea because no one apparently has any data. The exit polls are even less likely to be informative or meaningful now than ever before (the average person is 100% not going to talk with a stranger for an extended period of time). There are some phone exit polls from yesterday, though, that are in line with all the other ones suggesting late deciders are going to Biden IIRC. Something like 25% of people are voting are by mail in some states, as well, so both are less useful than ever.
Sure, but I'd still like to see what limited data we do have. I saw age and race breakdowns in terms of who voted for who here and there but 0 complete breakdowns of things like what % of voters were in each age group.
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Northern Ireland26225 Posts
On March 18 2020 21:53 Logo wrote:
Are there any exit polls/demographic breakdowns of the last 3 primaries?
The media seems to be trying as hard as they can to just sort of sweep what just happened under the rug and move on from the illegitimate primaries that just happened.
So I haven't been able to find any of the burning questions I had going into it, like who is voting during a pandemic, what the hell are they doing voting, and what is the demographic breakdown. It feels like young people stayed home while boomers lack self preservation and went out in droves, but I have no idea because no one apparently has any data.
It would be intriguing to know all these things. All sorts of factors I guess, as well as momentum factoring in. I know I felt super deflated after Super Tuesday.
I’m sure there’s plenty of academic literature on why the youth don’t vote as it’s continually been buggering us. I’ll see if I can dig me some up but no doubt a ton is paywalled.
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On March 18 2020 22:03 Wombat_NI wrote:Show nested quote +On March 18 2020 21:53 Logo wrote:
Are there any exit polls/demographic breakdowns of the last 3 primaries?
The media seems to be trying as hard as they can to just sort of sweep what just happened under the rug and move on from the illegitimate primaries that just happened.
So I haven't been able to find any of the burning questions I had going into it, like who is voting during a pandemic, what the hell are they doing voting, and what is the demographic breakdown. It feels like young people stayed home while boomers lack self preservation and went out in droves, but I have no idea because no one apparently has any data. It would be intriguing to know all these things. All sorts of factors I guess, as well as momentum factoring in. I know I felt super deflated after Super Tuesday. I’m sure there’s plenty of academic literature on why the youth don’t vote as it’s continually been buggering us. I’ll see if I can dig me some up but no doubt a ton is paywalled.
In the general the young people make up a larger share of the dem voters than they do in the primary, though that seems lost on discussion about primaries. Basically you have a similar overall age breakdown, but the older groups in the general lean more Republican. So like yeah 16% of voters are 18-29, but 60% of them vote dem whereas you have like 27% 65+ voters, but only 45% of them vote dem.
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On March 18 2020 22:21 Logo wrote:Show nested quote +On March 18 2020 22:03 Wombat_NI wrote:On March 18 2020 21:53 Logo wrote:
Are there any exit polls/demographic breakdowns of the last 3 primaries?
The media seems to be trying as hard as they can to just sort of sweep what just happened under the rug and move on from the illegitimate primaries that just happened.
So I haven't been able to find any of the burning questions I had going into it, like who is voting during a pandemic, what the hell are they doing voting, and what is the demographic breakdown. It feels like young people stayed home while boomers lack self preservation and went out in droves, but I have no idea because no one apparently has any data. It would be intriguing to know all these things. All sorts of factors I guess, as well as momentum factoring in. I know I felt super deflated after Super Tuesday. I’m sure there’s plenty of academic literature on why the youth don’t vote as it’s continually been buggering us. I’ll see if I can dig me some up but no doubt a ton is paywalled. In the general the young people make up a larger share of the dem voters than they do in the primary, though that seems lost on discussion about primaries. Basically you have a similar overall age breakdown, but the older groups in the general lean more Republican. So like yeah 16% of voters are 18-29, but 60% of them vote dem whereas you have like 27% 65+ voters, but only 45% of them vote dem.
The important part of Obama's coalition was massive youth turnout and it is often overlooked by mainstream pundits and Biden supporters.
So selecting Biden on the premise that young people don't vote is basically conceding the election before it starts.
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Northern Ireland26225 Posts
On March 18 2020 22:21 Logo wrote:Show nested quote +On March 18 2020 22:03 Wombat_NI wrote:On March 18 2020 21:53 Logo wrote:
Are there any exit polls/demographic breakdowns of the last 3 primaries?
The media seems to be trying as hard as they can to just sort of sweep what just happened under the rug and move on from the illegitimate primaries that just happened.
So I haven't been able to find any of the burning questions I had going into it, like who is voting during a pandemic, what the hell are they doing voting, and what is the demographic breakdown. It feels like young people stayed home while boomers lack self preservation and went out in droves, but I have no idea because no one apparently has any data. It would be intriguing to know all these things. All sorts of factors I guess, as well as momentum factoring in. I know I felt super deflated after Super Tuesday. I’m sure there’s plenty of academic literature on why the youth don’t vote as it’s continually been buggering us. I’ll see if I can dig me some up but no doubt a ton is paywalled. In the general the young people make up a larger share of the dem voters than they do in the primary, though that seems lost on discussion about primaries. Basically you have a similar overall age breakdown, but the older groups in the general lean more Republican. So like yeah 16% of voters are 18-29, but 60% of them vote dem whereas you have like 27% 65+ voters, but only 45% of them vote dem.
Well that would make sense, I’ve occasionally wondered but never actually looked up how one actually becomes a registered Dem/Republican now you mention it. I assume it’s a pretty easy thing to do and slightly different from being say, a member of the Labour Party over here?
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On March 18 2020 22:38 Wombat_NI wrote:Show nested quote +On March 18 2020 22:21 Logo wrote:On March 18 2020 22:03 Wombat_NI wrote:On March 18 2020 21:53 Logo wrote:
Are there any exit polls/demographic breakdowns of the last 3 primaries?
The media seems to be trying as hard as they can to just sort of sweep what just happened under the rug and move on from the illegitimate primaries that just happened.
So I haven't been able to find any of the burning questions I had going into it, like who is voting during a pandemic, what the hell are they doing voting, and what is the demographic breakdown. It feels like young people stayed home while boomers lack self preservation and went out in droves, but I have no idea because no one apparently has any data. It would be intriguing to know all these things. All sorts of factors I guess, as well as momentum factoring in. I know I felt super deflated after Super Tuesday. I’m sure there’s plenty of academic literature on why the youth don’t vote as it’s continually been buggering us. I’ll see if I can dig me some up but no doubt a ton is paywalled. In the general the young people make up a larger share of the dem voters than they do in the primary, though that seems lost on discussion about primaries. Basically you have a similar overall age breakdown, but the older groups in the general lean more Republican. So like yeah 16% of voters are 18-29, but 60% of them vote dem whereas you have like 27% 65+ voters, but only 45% of them vote dem. Well that would make sense, I’ve occasionally wondered but never actually looked up how one actually becomes a registered Dem/Republican now you mention it. I assume it’s a pretty easy thing to do and slightly different from being say, a member of the Labour Party over here?
You can choose a party when you register to vote or register as an independent. Some states require party affiliation to vote in a primary or you can tell them which primary ballet you want in others as an independent.
On March 18 2020 22:25 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +On March 18 2020 22:21 Logo wrote:On March 18 2020 22:03 Wombat_NI wrote:On March 18 2020 21:53 Logo wrote:
Are there any exit polls/demographic breakdowns of the last 3 primaries?
The media seems to be trying as hard as they can to just sort of sweep what just happened under the rug and move on from the illegitimate primaries that just happened.
So I haven't been able to find any of the burning questions I had going into it, like who is voting during a pandemic, what the hell are they doing voting, and what is the demographic breakdown. It feels like young people stayed home while boomers lack self preservation and went out in droves, but I have no idea because no one apparently has any data. It would be intriguing to know all these things. All sorts of factors I guess, as well as momentum factoring in. I know I felt super deflated after Super Tuesday. I’m sure there’s plenty of academic literature on why the youth don’t vote as it’s continually been buggering us. I’ll see if I can dig me some up but no doubt a ton is paywalled. In the general the young people make up a larger share of the dem voters than they do in the primary, though that seems lost on discussion about primaries. Basically you have a similar overall age breakdown, but the older groups in the general lean more Republican. So like yeah 16% of voters are 18-29, but 60% of them vote dem whereas you have like 27% 65+ voters, but only 45% of them vote dem. The important part of Obama's coalition was massive youth turnout and it is often overlooked by mainstream pundits and Biden supporters. So selecting Biden on the premise that young people don't vote is basically conceding the election before it starts.
As opposed to Bernie's campaign manifesto to drive youth turnout. That has clearly not been a winning strategy.
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On March 18 2020 23:03 Blitzkrieg0 wrote:Show nested quote +On March 18 2020 22:38 Wombat_NI wrote:On March 18 2020 22:21 Logo wrote:On March 18 2020 22:03 Wombat_NI wrote:On March 18 2020 21:53 Logo wrote:
Are there any exit polls/demographic breakdowns of the last 3 primaries?
The media seems to be trying as hard as they can to just sort of sweep what just happened under the rug and move on from the illegitimate primaries that just happened.
So I haven't been able to find any of the burning questions I had going into it, like who is voting during a pandemic, what the hell are they doing voting, and what is the demographic breakdown. It feels like young people stayed home while boomers lack self preservation and went out in droves, but I have no idea because no one apparently has any data. It would be intriguing to know all these things. All sorts of factors I guess, as well as momentum factoring in. I know I felt super deflated after Super Tuesday. I’m sure there’s plenty of academic literature on why the youth don’t vote as it’s continually been buggering us. I’ll see if I can dig me some up but no doubt a ton is paywalled. In the general the young people make up a larger share of the dem voters than they do in the primary, though that seems lost on discussion about primaries. Basically you have a similar overall age breakdown, but the older groups in the general lean more Republican. So like yeah 16% of voters are 18-29, but 60% of them vote dem whereas you have like 27% 65+ voters, but only 45% of them vote dem. Well that would make sense, I’ve occasionally wondered but never actually looked up how one actually becomes a registered Dem/Republican now you mention it. I assume it’s a pretty easy thing to do and slightly different from being say, a member of the Labour Party over here? You can choose a party when you register to vote or register as an independent. Some states require party affiliation to vote in a primary or you can tell them which primary ballet you want in others as an independent. Show nested quote +On March 18 2020 22:25 GreenHorizons wrote:On March 18 2020 22:21 Logo wrote:On March 18 2020 22:03 Wombat_NI wrote:On March 18 2020 21:53 Logo wrote:
Are there any exit polls/demographic breakdowns of the last 3 primaries?
The media seems to be trying as hard as they can to just sort of sweep what just happened under the rug and move on from the illegitimate primaries that just happened.
So I haven't been able to find any of the burning questions I had going into it, like who is voting during a pandemic, what the hell are they doing voting, and what is the demographic breakdown. It feels like young people stayed home while boomers lack self preservation and went out in droves, but I have no idea because no one apparently has any data. It would be intriguing to know all these things. All sorts of factors I guess, as well as momentum factoring in. I know I felt super deflated after Super Tuesday. I’m sure there’s plenty of academic literature on why the youth don’t vote as it’s continually been buggering us. I’ll see if I can dig me some up but no doubt a ton is paywalled. In the general the young people make up a larger share of the dem voters than they do in the primary, though that seems lost on discussion about primaries. Basically you have a similar overall age breakdown, but the older groups in the general lean more Republican. So like yeah 16% of voters are 18-29, but 60% of them vote dem whereas you have like 27% 65+ voters, but only 45% of them vote dem. The important part of Obama's coalition was massive youth turnout and it is often overlooked by mainstream pundits and Biden supporters. So selecting Biden on the premise that young people don't vote is basically conceding the election before it starts. As opposed to Bernie's campaign manifesto to drive youth turnout. That has clearly not been a winning strategy.
As was mentioned, elderly turnout is good enough to get Biden the nom, but doesn't help him in a general since they favor Republicans and Biden's got record low youth support and basically no campaign/volunteers to GOTV.
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On March 18 2020 23:13 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +On March 18 2020 23:03 Blitzkrieg0 wrote:On March 18 2020 22:38 Wombat_NI wrote:On March 18 2020 22:21 Logo wrote:On March 18 2020 22:03 Wombat_NI wrote:On March 18 2020 21:53 Logo wrote:
Are there any exit polls/demographic breakdowns of the last 3 primaries?
The media seems to be trying as hard as they can to just sort of sweep what just happened under the rug and move on from the illegitimate primaries that just happened.
So I haven't been able to find any of the burning questions I had going into it, like who is voting during a pandemic, what the hell are they doing voting, and what is the demographic breakdown. It feels like young people stayed home while boomers lack self preservation and went out in droves, but I have no idea because no one apparently has any data. It would be intriguing to know all these things. All sorts of factors I guess, as well as momentum factoring in. I know I felt super deflated after Super Tuesday. I’m sure there’s plenty of academic literature on why the youth don’t vote as it’s continually been buggering us. I’ll see if I can dig me some up but no doubt a ton is paywalled. In the general the young people make up a larger share of the dem voters than they do in the primary, though that seems lost on discussion about primaries. Basically you have a similar overall age breakdown, but the older groups in the general lean more Republican. So like yeah 16% of voters are 18-29, but 60% of them vote dem whereas you have like 27% 65+ voters, but only 45% of them vote dem. Well that would make sense, I’ve occasionally wondered but never actually looked up how one actually becomes a registered Dem/Republican now you mention it. I assume it’s a pretty easy thing to do and slightly different from being say, a member of the Labour Party over here? You can choose a party when you register to vote or register as an independent. Some states require party affiliation to vote in a primary or you can tell them which primary ballet you want in others as an independent. On March 18 2020 22:25 GreenHorizons wrote:On March 18 2020 22:21 Logo wrote:On March 18 2020 22:03 Wombat_NI wrote:On March 18 2020 21:53 Logo wrote:
Are there any exit polls/demographic breakdowns of the last 3 primaries?
The media seems to be trying as hard as they can to just sort of sweep what just happened under the rug and move on from the illegitimate primaries that just happened.
So I haven't been able to find any of the burning questions I had going into it, like who is voting during a pandemic, what the hell are they doing voting, and what is the demographic breakdown. It feels like young people stayed home while boomers lack self preservation and went out in droves, but I have no idea because no one apparently has any data. It would be intriguing to know all these things. All sorts of factors I guess, as well as momentum factoring in. I know I felt super deflated after Super Tuesday. I’m sure there’s plenty of academic literature on why the youth don’t vote as it’s continually been buggering us. I’ll see if I can dig me some up but no doubt a ton is paywalled. In the general the young people make up a larger share of the dem voters than they do in the primary, though that seems lost on discussion about primaries. Basically you have a similar overall age breakdown, but the older groups in the general lean more Republican. So like yeah 16% of voters are 18-29, but 60% of them vote dem whereas you have like 27% 65+ voters, but only 45% of them vote dem. The important part of Obama's coalition was massive youth turnout and it is often overlooked by mainstream pundits and Biden supporters. So selecting Biden on the premise that young people don't vote is basically conceding the election before it starts. As opposed to Bernie's campaign manifesto to drive youth turnout. That has clearly not been a winning strategy. As was mentioned, elderly turnout is good enough to get Biden the nom, but doesn't help him in a general since they favor Republicans and Biden's got record low youth support and basically no campaign/volunteers to GOTV.
So youth won't turn out to get Bernie the nomination so the DNC should just give him the nomination anyway and they'll turnout to vote out Trump? You're losing me here.
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On March 18 2020 23:22 Blitzkrieg0 wrote:Show nested quote +On March 18 2020 23:13 GreenHorizons wrote:On March 18 2020 23:03 Blitzkrieg0 wrote:On March 18 2020 22:38 Wombat_NI wrote:On March 18 2020 22:21 Logo wrote:On March 18 2020 22:03 Wombat_NI wrote:On March 18 2020 21:53 Logo wrote:
Are there any exit polls/demographic breakdowns of the last 3 primaries?
The media seems to be trying as hard as they can to just sort of sweep what just happened under the rug and move on from the illegitimate primaries that just happened.
So I haven't been able to find any of the burning questions I had going into it, like who is voting during a pandemic, what the hell are they doing voting, and what is the demographic breakdown. It feels like young people stayed home while boomers lack self preservation and went out in droves, but I have no idea because no one apparently has any data. It would be intriguing to know all these things. All sorts of factors I guess, as well as momentum factoring in. I know I felt super deflated after Super Tuesday. I’m sure there’s plenty of academic literature on why the youth don’t vote as it’s continually been buggering us. I’ll see if I can dig me some up but no doubt a ton is paywalled. In the general the young people make up a larger share of the dem voters than they do in the primary, though that seems lost on discussion about primaries. Basically you have a similar overall age breakdown, but the older groups in the general lean more Republican. So like yeah 16% of voters are 18-29, but 60% of them vote dem whereas you have like 27% 65+ voters, but only 45% of them vote dem. Well that would make sense, I’ve occasionally wondered but never actually looked up how one actually becomes a registered Dem/Republican now you mention it. I assume it’s a pretty easy thing to do and slightly different from being say, a member of the Labour Party over here? You can choose a party when you register to vote or register as an independent. Some states require party affiliation to vote in a primary or you can tell them which primary ballet you want in others as an independent. On March 18 2020 22:25 GreenHorizons wrote:On March 18 2020 22:21 Logo wrote:On March 18 2020 22:03 Wombat_NI wrote:On March 18 2020 21:53 Logo wrote:
Are there any exit polls/demographic breakdowns of the last 3 primaries?
The media seems to be trying as hard as they can to just sort of sweep what just happened under the rug and move on from the illegitimate primaries that just happened.
So I haven't been able to find any of the burning questions I had going into it, like who is voting during a pandemic, what the hell are they doing voting, and what is the demographic breakdown. It feels like young people stayed home while boomers lack self preservation and went out in droves, but I have no idea because no one apparently has any data. It would be intriguing to know all these things. All sorts of factors I guess, as well as momentum factoring in. I know I felt super deflated after Super Tuesday. I’m sure there’s plenty of academic literature on why the youth don’t vote as it’s continually been buggering us. I’ll see if I can dig me some up but no doubt a ton is paywalled. In the general the young people make up a larger share of the dem voters than they do in the primary, though that seems lost on discussion about primaries. Basically you have a similar overall age breakdown, but the older groups in the general lean more Republican. So like yeah 16% of voters are 18-29, but 60% of them vote dem whereas you have like 27% 65+ voters, but only 45% of them vote dem. The important part of Obama's coalition was massive youth turnout and it is often overlooked by mainstream pundits and Biden supporters. So selecting Biden on the premise that young people don't vote is basically conceding the election before it starts. As opposed to Bernie's campaign manifesto to drive youth turnout. That has clearly not been a winning strategy. As was mentioned, elderly turnout is good enough to get Biden the nom, but doesn't help him in a general since they favor Republicans and Biden's got record low youth support and basically no campaign/volunteers to GOTV. So youth won't turn out to get Bernie the nomination so the DNC should just give him the nomination anyway and they'll turnout to vote out Trump? You're losing me here.
No, what I am saying is that the DNC manufacturing consent for Biden and making backroom deals to get him out in front for the nomination was done to stop Bernie from getting the nomination and is a move they did knowing full well he will likely fall flat on his face because young people won't show up.
They would rather lose with Biden than win with Bernie.
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On March 18 2020 23:22 Blitzkrieg0 wrote:Show nested quote +On March 18 2020 23:13 GreenHorizons wrote:On March 18 2020 23:03 Blitzkrieg0 wrote:On March 18 2020 22:38 Wombat_NI wrote:On March 18 2020 22:21 Logo wrote:On March 18 2020 22:03 Wombat_NI wrote:On March 18 2020 21:53 Logo wrote:
Are there any exit polls/demographic breakdowns of the last 3 primaries?
The media seems to be trying as hard as they can to just sort of sweep what just happened under the rug and move on from the illegitimate primaries that just happened.
So I haven't been able to find any of the burning questions I had going into it, like who is voting during a pandemic, what the hell are they doing voting, and what is the demographic breakdown. It feels like young people stayed home while boomers lack self preservation and went out in droves, but I have no idea because no one apparently has any data. It would be intriguing to know all these things. All sorts of factors I guess, as well as momentum factoring in. I know I felt super deflated after Super Tuesday. I’m sure there’s plenty of academic literature on why the youth don’t vote as it’s continually been buggering us. I’ll see if I can dig me some up but no doubt a ton is paywalled. In the general the young people make up a larger share of the dem voters than they do in the primary, though that seems lost on discussion about primaries. Basically you have a similar overall age breakdown, but the older groups in the general lean more Republican. So like yeah 16% of voters are 18-29, but 60% of them vote dem whereas you have like 27% 65+ voters, but only 45% of them vote dem. Well that would make sense, I’ve occasionally wondered but never actually looked up how one actually becomes a registered Dem/Republican now you mention it. I assume it’s a pretty easy thing to do and slightly different from being say, a member of the Labour Party over here? You can choose a party when you register to vote or register as an independent. Some states require party affiliation to vote in a primary or you can tell them which primary ballet you want in others as an independent. On March 18 2020 22:25 GreenHorizons wrote:On March 18 2020 22:21 Logo wrote:On March 18 2020 22:03 Wombat_NI wrote:On March 18 2020 21:53 Logo wrote:
Are there any exit polls/demographic breakdowns of the last 3 primaries?
The media seems to be trying as hard as they can to just sort of sweep what just happened under the rug and move on from the illegitimate primaries that just happened.
So I haven't been able to find any of the burning questions I had going into it, like who is voting during a pandemic, what the hell are they doing voting, and what is the demographic breakdown. It feels like young people stayed home while boomers lack self preservation and went out in droves, but I have no idea because no one apparently has any data. It would be intriguing to know all these things. All sorts of factors I guess, as well as momentum factoring in. I know I felt super deflated after Super Tuesday. I’m sure there’s plenty of academic literature on why the youth don’t vote as it’s continually been buggering us. I’ll see if I can dig me some up but no doubt a ton is paywalled. In the general the young people make up a larger share of the dem voters than they do in the primary, though that seems lost on discussion about primaries. Basically you have a similar overall age breakdown, but the older groups in the general lean more Republican. So like yeah 16% of voters are 18-29, but 60% of them vote dem whereas you have like 27% 65+ voters, but only 45% of them vote dem. The important part of Obama's coalition was massive youth turnout and it is often overlooked by mainstream pundits and Biden supporters. So selecting Biden on the premise that young people don't vote is basically conceding the election before it starts. As opposed to Bernie's campaign manifesto to drive youth turnout. That has clearly not been a winning strategy. As was mentioned, elderly turnout is good enough to get Biden the nom, but doesn't help him in a general since they favor Republicans and Biden's got record low youth support and basically no campaign/volunteers to GOTV. So youth won't turn out to get Bernie the nomination so the DNC should just give him the nomination anyway and they'll turnout to vote out Trump? You're losing me here.
They represent a larger share of general electorate voters than Dem primary voters because young people typically don't pay attention to primaries in general. Prior to Obama sub 10% was typical. So the "youth don't turn out" is largely misguided and reductive imo.
You need large youth turnout again to beat Trump and Democrats are choosing the worst option to fill that need. It is a clear recipe for failure.
On March 18 2020 23:31 Logo wrote:Show nested quote +On March 18 2020 23:22 Blitzkrieg0 wrote:On March 18 2020 23:13 GreenHorizons wrote:On March 18 2020 23:03 Blitzkrieg0 wrote:On March 18 2020 22:38 Wombat_NI wrote:On March 18 2020 22:21 Logo wrote:On March 18 2020 22:03 Wombat_NI wrote:On March 18 2020 21:53 Logo wrote:
Are there any exit polls/demographic breakdowns of the last 3 primaries?
The media seems to be trying as hard as they can to just sort of sweep what just happened under the rug and move on from the illegitimate primaries that just happened.
So I haven't been able to find any of the burning questions I had going into it, like who is voting during a pandemic, what the hell are they doing voting, and what is the demographic breakdown. It feels like young people stayed home while boomers lack self preservation and went out in droves, but I have no idea because no one apparently has any data. It would be intriguing to know all these things. All sorts of factors I guess, as well as momentum factoring in. I know I felt super deflated after Super Tuesday. I’m sure there’s plenty of academic literature on why the youth don’t vote as it’s continually been buggering us. I’ll see if I can dig me some up but no doubt a ton is paywalled. In the general the young people make up a larger share of the dem voters than they do in the primary, though that seems lost on discussion about primaries. Basically you have a similar overall age breakdown, but the older groups in the general lean more Republican. So like yeah 16% of voters are 18-29, but 60% of them vote dem whereas you have like 27% 65+ voters, but only 45% of them vote dem. Well that would make sense, I’ve occasionally wondered but never actually looked up how one actually becomes a registered Dem/Republican now you mention it. I assume it’s a pretty easy thing to do and slightly different from being say, a member of the Labour Party over here? You can choose a party when you register to vote or register as an independent. Some states require party affiliation to vote in a primary or you can tell them which primary ballet you want in others as an independent. On March 18 2020 22:25 GreenHorizons wrote:On March 18 2020 22:21 Logo wrote:On March 18 2020 22:03 Wombat_NI wrote:On March 18 2020 21:53 Logo wrote:
Are there any exit polls/demographic breakdowns of the last 3 primaries?
The media seems to be trying as hard as they can to just sort of sweep what just happened under the rug and move on from the illegitimate primaries that just happened.
So I haven't been able to find any of the burning questions I had going into it, like who is voting during a pandemic, what the hell are they doing voting, and what is the demographic breakdown. It feels like young people stayed home while boomers lack self preservation and went out in droves, but I have no idea because no one apparently has any data. It would be intriguing to know all these things. All sorts of factors I guess, as well as momentum factoring in. I know I felt super deflated after Super Tuesday. I’m sure there’s plenty of academic literature on why the youth don’t vote as it’s continually been buggering us. I’ll see if I can dig me some up but no doubt a ton is paywalled. In the general the young people make up a larger share of the dem voters than they do in the primary, though that seems lost on discussion about primaries. Basically you have a similar overall age breakdown, but the older groups in the general lean more Republican. So like yeah 16% of voters are 18-29, but 60% of them vote dem whereas you have like 27% 65+ voters, but only 45% of them vote dem. The important part of Obama's coalition was massive youth turnout and it is often overlooked by mainstream pundits and Biden supporters. So selecting Biden on the premise that young people don't vote is basically conceding the election before it starts. As opposed to Bernie's campaign manifesto to drive youth turnout. That has clearly not been a winning strategy. As was mentioned, elderly turnout is good enough to get Biden the nom, but doesn't help him in a general since they favor Republicans and Biden's got record low youth support and basically no campaign/volunteers to GOTV. So youth won't turn out to get Bernie the nomination so the DNC should just give him the nomination anyway and they'll turnout to vote out Trump? You're losing me here. No, what I am saying is that the DNC manufacturing consent for Biden and making backroom deals to get him out in front for the nomination was done to stop Bernie from getting the nomination and is a move they did knowing full well he will likely fall flat on his face because young people won't show up. They would rather lose with Biden than win with Bernie.
confirmed by Democrats lame corona packages getting outflanked on the left by Trump and Republicans imo.
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On March 18 2020 23:13 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +On March 18 2020 23:03 Blitzkrieg0 wrote:On March 18 2020 22:38 Wombat_NI wrote:On March 18 2020 22:21 Logo wrote:On March 18 2020 22:03 Wombat_NI wrote:On March 18 2020 21:53 Logo wrote:
Are there any exit polls/demographic breakdowns of the last 3 primaries?
The media seems to be trying as hard as they can to just sort of sweep what just happened under the rug and move on from the illegitimate primaries that just happened.
So I haven't been able to find any of the burning questions I had going into it, like who is voting during a pandemic, what the hell are they doing voting, and what is the demographic breakdown. It feels like young people stayed home while boomers lack self preservation and went out in droves, but I have no idea because no one apparently has any data. It would be intriguing to know all these things. All sorts of factors I guess, as well as momentum factoring in. I know I felt super deflated after Super Tuesday. I’m sure there’s plenty of academic literature on why the youth don’t vote as it’s continually been buggering us. I’ll see if I can dig me some up but no doubt a ton is paywalled. In the general the young people make up a larger share of the dem voters than they do in the primary, though that seems lost on discussion about primaries. Basically you have a similar overall age breakdown, but the older groups in the general lean more Republican. So like yeah 16% of voters are 18-29, but 60% of them vote dem whereas you have like 27% 65+ voters, but only 45% of them vote dem. Well that would make sense, I’ve occasionally wondered but never actually looked up how one actually becomes a registered Dem/Republican now you mention it. I assume it’s a pretty easy thing to do and slightly different from being say, a member of the Labour Party over here? You can choose a party when you register to vote or register as an independent. Some states require party affiliation to vote in a primary or you can tell them which primary ballet you want in others as an independent. On March 18 2020 22:25 GreenHorizons wrote:On March 18 2020 22:21 Logo wrote:On March 18 2020 22:03 Wombat_NI wrote:On March 18 2020 21:53 Logo wrote:
Are there any exit polls/demographic breakdowns of the last 3 primaries?
The media seems to be trying as hard as they can to just sort of sweep what just happened under the rug and move on from the illegitimate primaries that just happened.
So I haven't been able to find any of the burning questions I had going into it, like who is voting during a pandemic, what the hell are they doing voting, and what is the demographic breakdown. It feels like young people stayed home while boomers lack self preservation and went out in droves, but I have no idea because no one apparently has any data. It would be intriguing to know all these things. All sorts of factors I guess, as well as momentum factoring in. I know I felt super deflated after Super Tuesday. I’m sure there’s plenty of academic literature on why the youth don’t vote as it’s continually been buggering us. I’ll see if I can dig me some up but no doubt a ton is paywalled. In the general the young people make up a larger share of the dem voters than they do in the primary, though that seems lost on discussion about primaries. Basically you have a similar overall age breakdown, but the older groups in the general lean more Republican. So like yeah 16% of voters are 18-29, but 60% of them vote dem whereas you have like 27% 65+ voters, but only 45% of them vote dem. The important part of Obama's coalition was massive youth turnout and it is often overlooked by mainstream pundits and Biden supporters. So selecting Biden on the premise that young people don't vote is basically conceding the election before it starts. As opposed to Bernie's campaign manifesto to drive youth turnout. That has clearly not been a winning strategy. As was mentioned, elderly turnout is good enough to get Biden the nom, but doesn't help him in a general since they favor Republicans and Biden's got record low youth support and basically no campaign/volunteers to GOTV.
I mean, would you rather bank on something that worked 12 years ago and then failed every time since, including during the current primary season? Or something that worked 2 years ago? Biden's support among the demographics that resulted in a Democratic house in 2018 (i.e. suburban women and disillusioned Republicans) stomps Sanders' into the ground. Especially among suburban women.
As much as I've heard "those disillusioned Trump voters support Bernie in the Rust Belt," that just doesn't seem to be reality in actual observed data. To at least some degree (and for some valid reasons) those people really fucking hated Clinton.
Holding untestable positions ("the youth would turn out more in the general for Sanders if he won") is tremendously dangerous. Especially when you use them as justification for future decisions and use them to rule out all evidence to the contrary.
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On March 18 2020 23:34 TheTenthDoc wrote:I mean, would you rather bank on something that worked 12 years ago and then failed every time since, including during the current primary season? Or something that worked 2 years ago? Biden's support among the demographics that resulted in a Democratic house in 2018 (i.e. suburban women and disillusioned Republicans) stomps Sanders' into the ground. Especially among suburban women.
So your planned strategy is to run against the least popular president in modern history every time and start from an incredible deficit compared to the popular vote for a result of basically a draw (lose senate, gain house)?
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On March 18 2020 23:34 TheTenthDoc wrote:Show nested quote +On March 18 2020 23:13 GreenHorizons wrote:On March 18 2020 23:03 Blitzkrieg0 wrote:On March 18 2020 22:38 Wombat_NI wrote:On March 18 2020 22:21 Logo wrote:On March 18 2020 22:03 Wombat_NI wrote:On March 18 2020 21:53 Logo wrote:
Are there any exit polls/demographic breakdowns of the last 3 primaries?
The media seems to be trying as hard as they can to just sort of sweep what just happened under the rug and move on from the illegitimate primaries that just happened.
So I haven't been able to find any of the burning questions I had going into it, like who is voting during a pandemic, what the hell are they doing voting, and what is the demographic breakdown. It feels like young people stayed home while boomers lack self preservation and went out in droves, but I have no idea because no one apparently has any data. It would be intriguing to know all these things. All sorts of factors I guess, as well as momentum factoring in. I know I felt super deflated after Super Tuesday. I’m sure there’s plenty of academic literature on why the youth don’t vote as it’s continually been buggering us. I’ll see if I can dig me some up but no doubt a ton is paywalled. In the general the young people make up a larger share of the dem voters than they do in the primary, though that seems lost on discussion about primaries. Basically you have a similar overall age breakdown, but the older groups in the general lean more Republican. So like yeah 16% of voters are 18-29, but 60% of them vote dem whereas you have like 27% 65+ voters, but only 45% of them vote dem. Well that would make sense, I’ve occasionally wondered but never actually looked up how one actually becomes a registered Dem/Republican now you mention it. I assume it’s a pretty easy thing to do and slightly different from being say, a member of the Labour Party over here? You can choose a party when you register to vote or register as an independent. Some states require party affiliation to vote in a primary or you can tell them which primary ballet you want in others as an independent. On March 18 2020 22:25 GreenHorizons wrote:On March 18 2020 22:21 Logo wrote:On March 18 2020 22:03 Wombat_NI wrote:On March 18 2020 21:53 Logo wrote:
Are there any exit polls/demographic breakdowns of the last 3 primaries?
The media seems to be trying as hard as they can to just sort of sweep what just happened under the rug and move on from the illegitimate primaries that just happened.
So I haven't been able to find any of the burning questions I had going into it, like who is voting during a pandemic, what the hell are they doing voting, and what is the demographic breakdown. It feels like young people stayed home while boomers lack self preservation and went out in droves, but I have no idea because no one apparently has any data. It would be intriguing to know all these things. All sorts of factors I guess, as well as momentum factoring in. I know I felt super deflated after Super Tuesday. I’m sure there’s plenty of academic literature on why the youth don’t vote as it’s continually been buggering us. I’ll see if I can dig me some up but no doubt a ton is paywalled. In the general the young people make up a larger share of the dem voters than they do in the primary, though that seems lost on discussion about primaries. Basically you have a similar overall age breakdown, but the older groups in the general lean more Republican. So like yeah 16% of voters are 18-29, but 60% of them vote dem whereas you have like 27% 65+ voters, but only 45% of them vote dem. The important part of Obama's coalition was massive youth turnout and it is often overlooked by mainstream pundits and Biden supporters. So selecting Biden on the premise that young people don't vote is basically conceding the election before it starts. As opposed to Bernie's campaign manifesto to drive youth turnout. That has clearly not been a winning strategy. As was mentioned, elderly turnout is good enough to get Biden the nom, but doesn't help him in a general since they favor Republicans and Biden's got record low youth support and basically no campaign/volunteers to GOTV. I mean, would you rather bank on something that worked 12 years ago and then failed every time since, including during the current primary season? Or something that worked 2 years ago? Biden's support among the demographics that resulted in a Democratic house in 2018 (i.e. suburban women and disillusioned Republicans) stomps Sanders' into the ground. Especially among suburban women. As much as I've heard "those disillusioned Trump voters support Bernie in the Rust Belt," that just doesn't seem to be reality. Holding untestable positions ("the youth would turn out more in the general for Sanders if he won") is tremendously dangerous. Especially when you use them as justification for future decisions and use them to rule out all evidence to the contrary.
Yes (granting your description), because Biden is unacceptable.
The creepy groping, the racism, and the cognitive decline should be disqualifying on their own but combine them with the awful and woefully inadequate policy prescriptions and that should be the end of it.
I'd go a step farther than dpb and say that besides Bernie being an unsung hero by future generations, Biden supporters will go down as this generations segregationists and robber barons. Future generations won't parse between Trump and Biden supporters because they'll eventually end up (more formally) on the same side of the fight in front of us as a nation/world.
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EPT
