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If this thread turns into a USPMT 2.0, we will not hesitate to shut it down. Do not even bother posting if all you're going to do is shit on the Democratic candidates while adding nothing of value.
Rules:
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This thread will be heavily moderated. Expect the same kind of strictness as the USPMT. |
Some Raw Data as most states are called:
Cumulative Popular voteBiden Sanders Bloomberg Warren Buttigieg
4,081,230 3,162,993 1,485,136 1,483,236 565,805 Biden +918,237
Best Sanders: California +199,747
Best Biden: Virginia +399,912
Bloombito, Warren, Gabbard always trailed
Cumulative Delegate Counts
Biden Sanders Buttigieg Warren Bloomberg Klobuchar Gabbard
384 301 26 21 12 7 1
1991 delegates to win
653 still to be awarded
States Won Super TuesdayBiden Bernie
AL AR MA MN NC OK TN VA CA CO UT VT
Maine too close to call.
Biden's biggest upsets were Minnesota and Maine. Biggest delta on polling predictions was Alabama, where Biden way overperformed.
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As Introvert pointed out, young voters did not rally as much as expected, which hurt Sanders especially.
In Alabama, only 7% of the voters were in the 17-29 range compared to 14% in 2016. Sanders won six of every 10 of those voters Tuesday compared to four of 10 in 2016.
In North Carolina, 13% of Tuesday’s electorate were young voters, compared to 16% four years ago. Of those, 57% went for Sanders in 2020 compared to 69% in 2016.
In South Carolina, young voters made up 11% of the electorate Tuesday compared to 15% in 2016. Sanders won 43% of those voters Tuesday compared to 54% four years ago.
In Tennessee, 11% of those voters showed up Tuesday versus 15% in 2016. Sanders did better among that group Tuesday winning 65% compared to 61% four years ago.
In Virginia, young voters comprised 13% of Tuesday’s vote compared to 16% in 2016. Sanders won 57% of those voters Tuesday compared to 69% four years ago.
For all the Sanders enthusiasm among those voters (especially on Reddit, Twitter and even this thread), it hasn't translated into tangible votes.
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Canada8991 Posts
On March 04 2020 15:26 Introvert wrote:
Since everyone seems to have the "bad for Bernie" part right (although tbf as more votes come in, at least in CA, it should get a little better), thought I'd quote the NYT elections guy making a point that worth watching:
There is certainly no "Revolution" using the youth nor does it appear that an old time Democrat like Biden excites people that have slowly drifted from the Democrat party. Biden did best among that sort, but he's not bringing them back. Think I posted an article in the other thread some months ago about how higher turnout in 2020 might not work to the D's advantage, and I think this is part of that puzzle. Pretty interesting.
There's a similar argument to be made about african american vote, which Biden is doing so well with and talking about how it would help him in a presidential election. The big majority of the african american vote is essentially worthless in a presidential election because of how it's split among the US, Florida and Ohio are the two competitive state with 10+% of Afro American, and the number are probably lower among eligible voter once you pull out all of those who have loss their vote for various insane US reasons. It's not actually that central an electorate. Having a 5% increase in turnout among african american US wise sound extraordinary but it doesn't actually help you that much, once you realize it's 5% of 10% of the population in Pennsylvania. Of course you would need to separate where those 5% come from in the US and the election frequently comes down to very slim margin so even half a point can give you a victory.
The latino vote is a bit of the same, they are essential in Florida and the dems need to have at least a decent turnout to keep Nevada and maybe even hope to flip Arizona but outside these 3 states it's essential dead vote.
So for all the talk about creating a movement among black and latino outside of the big one which is Florida where you have 30-40% of black and Hispanics having a higher turnout among minority voters doesn't really help you that much to win the white house. (A bunch more vote in Mississippi, California, New York and until proven wrong Texas doesn't mean shit) On the other side white suburban are pretty much key everywhere, so if these vote more and tend to vote for Trump it might be bad news.
I'm not saying it's not important, for all the talk about small working class rust belt town voters, Florida is still the most crucial state of any us election, just that it's sometime over emphasize.
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On March 04 2020 02:26 Geo.Rion wrote:Show nested quote +On March 04 2020 02:19 Nakajin wrote:
538 model now has Biden at...65% of winning a plurality, and I also now realize I was keeping track of an indicator that ment pretty much nothing.
I get the drop out but what kind of model can have a 50+ point variation in a day. it puts heavy emphasis on - recent results - recent polls - endorsements In the past couple of days a lot has changed in those regards, not that I'm saying it's an accurate prediction, but getting those endorsements in the past 24 hours is valued highly by the model. I wont be up to follow the vote, I will be waking up at around midnight CST, first thing im doing will be google democratic primary results Texas. Here s my prediction If the state is called for Bernie, he will be the nominee If it's called for Biden, then him If it's too close to call, than this thing will drag out for months yet. ofc then i will check the rest of the states as well, but i really think Texas is the best indicator right now
Hmm, looks like 538's model actually under-shot on Biden, and my Texas-compass doesnt seem to be working either.
i mean it's still too close to call, but the rest of the states look amazing for Biden, so it might not matter in the end who wins Texas (by small margins anyways).
If something major doesnt come around, like a complete debate-meltdown, Biden is the nominee.
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On March 04 2020 16:12 Nakajin wrote:Show nested quote +On March 04 2020 15:26 Introvert wrote:Since everyone seems to have the "bad for Bernie" part right (although tbf as more votes come in, at least in CA, it should get a little better), thought I'd quote the NYT elections guy making a point that worth watching: https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1235041760457478146There is certainly no "Revolution" using the youth nor does it appear that an old time Democrat like Biden excites people that have slowly drifted from the Democrat party. Biden did best among that sort, but he's not bringing them back. Think I posted an article in the other thread some months ago about how higher turnout in 2020 might not work to the D's advantage, and I think this is part of that puzzle. Pretty interesting. There's a similar argument to be made about african american vote, which Biden is doing so well with and talking about how it would help him in a presidential election. The big majority of the african american vote is essentially worthless in a presidential election because of how it's split among the US, Florida and Ohio are the two competitive state with 10+% of Afro American, and the number are probably lower among eligible voter once you pull out all of those who have loss their vote for various insane US reasons. It's not actually that central an electorate. Having a 5% increase in turnout among african american US wise sound extraordinary but it doesn't actually help you that much, once you realize it's 5% of 10% of the population in Pennsylvania. Of course you would need to separate where those 5% come from in the US and the election frequently comes down to very slim margin so even half a point can give you a victory. The latino vote is a bit of the same, they are essential in Florida and the dems need to have at least a decent turnout to keep Nevada and maybe even hope to flip Arizona but outside these 3 states it's essential dead vote. So for all the talk about creating a movement among black and latino outside of the big one which is Florida where you have 30-40% of black and Hispanics having a higher turnout among minority voters doesn't really help you that much to win the white house. (A bunch more vote in Mississippi, California, New York and until proven wrong Texas doesn't mean shit) On the other side white suburban are pretty much key everywhere, so if these vote more and tend to vote for Trump it might be bad news. I'm not saying it's not important, for all the talk about small working class rust belt town voters, Florida is still the most crucial state of any us election, just that it's sometime over emphasize.
There's a lot right about this, and again for Biden he's not even getting Clinton levels of enthusiasm, he's just kind of default among black voters. I'd have to go double check that I suppose, but last I read he's not driving turnout. Or, at the very least, Biden's support is more regional than Hillary's was. But this could be another sign to watch, Biden doing worse than Hillary among black and/or hispanic voters would be a disaster for him in places like PA, esp if rural whites stay GOP. Could be a battle for the burbs, although that's why I think Biden remains Trump's biggest threat. Still, I noticed his mental decline a long time ago... I just don't know how all those months in the spotlight on the campaign trail full time don't cause him to descend even further.
Someone I read joked that Biden won places like MN because he didn't campaign there and no one noticed he was incoherent, lol.
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On March 04 2020 13:41 LegalLord wrote:Show nested quote +On March 04 2020 13:27 Danglars wrote:
Trump is unpopular. Biden is a sympathetic fool. People here have restated a million times how willing they are to turn out and vote just to get Trump out of office. People here who represent a remarkably heavy Sanders bias mention over and over how they'll support the eventual nominee no matter what. I'm not willing to discount the mob angrily filling in the ballot for whatever Not-Trump is in top position. Not that I'm part of that "eventual nominee no matter what" group, but at this stage I'm about 50/50 on whether or not to vote Trump instead. Biden is definitely notionally closer to what I'd want policy-wise, but to vote for him would be to give the DNC the green light on business as usual. Was a difficult pill to swallow in 2016, only to watch it fail spectacularly when it came time to deliver results. To support it again in 2020 seems truly insane.
I get the upside. Clinton, then Biden? Buttigieg, Klobuchar dropping out and pledging support with 3+ others perfectly timed to build up Biden in the center lane. Warren sticking around in exact opposite fashion, playing spoiler to Sanders in at least two states. Even Bloomberg played spoiler in California with that massive ad blitz. I live in California, it was two to three ads at every sport game, to a total of $77.4 million dollars.
The downside everybody knows. Trump's grating tweets, the incompetence, the petulance, for four more years with the spotlight on him. All that and the DNC might STILL not get the memo.
At least Dem voters can take solace that it's less likely a candidate winning the smaller share of the popular vote goes on to clinch the nomination.
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On March 04 2020 14:54 GreenHorizons wrote:
People are waiting 5 hours to vote in Texas. Whole country should be ashamed, but no one cares
Elections are run at the local level. Blame those people waiting in line for not getting their local government to run decent elections.
I've never had to wait in line to vote in my life.
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Or we blame the people running the elections for doing a shit job of it
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Norway28918 Posts
On March 04 2020 11:57 Stratos_speAr wrote:
Minnesota called for Biden. He also might win Maine.
Uffda.
Haha wow I had no idea this was a phrase at all used by americans. Makes sense with Minnesota tho. 
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Norway28918 Posts
On March 04 2020 12:20 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +On March 04 2020 12:17 Nebuchad wrote:On March 04 2020 12:15 GreenHorizons wrote:On March 04 2020 12:06 Nebuchad wrote:
Yup, it's over. Congrats on (at least) 4 more years Trump I mean that's the feeling they want his supporters to have It worked, I have it. Let it radicalize you, or watch the world burn, they both have their appeal for myself tbh. The bootlicking from others is gross though, so keep not doing that.
Whats the appeal in watching the world burn again?
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On March 04 2020 17:18 Liquid`Drone wrote:Show nested quote +On March 04 2020 12:20 GreenHorizons wrote:On March 04 2020 12:17 Nebuchad wrote:On March 04 2020 12:15 GreenHorizons wrote:On March 04 2020 12:06 Nebuchad wrote:
Yup, it's over. Congrats on (at least) 4 more years Trump I mean that's the feeling they want his supporters to have It worked, I have it. Let it radicalize you, or watch the world burn, they both have their appeal for myself tbh. The bootlicking from others is gross though, so keep not doing that. Whats the appeal in watching the world burn again?
What's the appeal of anything.
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Northern Ireland27477 Posts
On March 04 2020 17:18 Liquid`Drone wrote:Show nested quote +On March 04 2020 12:20 GreenHorizons wrote:On March 04 2020 12:17 Nebuchad wrote:On March 04 2020 12:15 GreenHorizons wrote:On March 04 2020 12:06 Nebuchad wrote:
Yup, it's over. Congrats on (at least) 4 more years Trump I mean that's the feeling they want his supporters to have It worked, I have it. Let it radicalize you, or watch the world burn, they both have their appeal for myself tbh. The bootlicking from others is gross though, so keep not doing that. Whats the appeal in watching the world burn again?
The pretty colours?
I’m pretty annoyed/frustrated myself, although curious as to turnout via demographics. I have an inkling that youth turnout fucked Bernie here more in practical terms than any amount of other outside interference.
He out fundraised and outspent Biden, had a lot of grass roots on the ground volunteers and is continually hugely signal boosted by the internet, basically for free.
And still lost out here.
As another aside, I was aware he isn’t particularly popular amongst the black community but is there a particular reason Sanders does so badly there folks?
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On March 04 2020 17:50 Wombat_NI wrote:Show nested quote +On March 04 2020 17:18 Liquid`Drone wrote:On March 04 2020 12:20 GreenHorizons wrote:On March 04 2020 12:17 Nebuchad wrote:On March 04 2020 12:15 GreenHorizons wrote:On March 04 2020 12:06 Nebuchad wrote:
Yup, it's over. Congrats on (at least) 4 more years Trump I mean that's the feeling they want his supporters to have It worked, I have it. Let it radicalize you, or watch the world burn, they both have their appeal for myself tbh. The bootlicking from others is gross though, so keep not doing that. Whats the appeal in watching the world burn again? The pretty colours? I’m pretty annoyed/frustrated myself, although curious as to turnout via demographics. I have an inkling that youth turnout fucked Bernie here more in practical terms than any amount of other outside interference. He out fundraised and outspent Biden, had a lot of grass roots on the ground volunteers and is continually hugely signal boosted by the internet, basically for free. And still lost out here. As another aside, I was aware he isn’t particularly popular amongst the black community but is there a particular reason Sanders does so badly there folks?
Maybe endorsements work better in black communities? They trust their local party leaders more, and vote how they indicate?
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On March 04 2020 17:00 Sermokala wrote:Show nested quote +On March 04 2020 14:54 GreenHorizons wrote:
People are waiting 5 hours to vote in Texas. Whole country should be ashamed, but no one cares Elections are run at the local level. Blame those people waiting in line for not getting their local government to run decent elections. I've never had to wait in line to vote in my life.
Right? Can't imagine why they wouldn't vote out people suppressing their votes...Or why you have no experience with this issue.
On March 04 2020 17:18 Liquid`Drone wrote:Show nested quote +On March 04 2020 12:20 GreenHorizons wrote:On March 04 2020 12:17 Nebuchad wrote:On March 04 2020 12:15 GreenHorizons wrote:On March 04 2020 12:06 Nebuchad wrote:
Yup, it's over. Congrats on (at least) 4 more years Trump I mean that's the feeling they want his supporters to have It worked, I have it. Let it radicalize you, or watch the world burn, they both have their appeal for myself tbh. The bootlicking from others is gross though, so keep not doing that. Whats the appeal in watching the world burn again?
Less stressful when you just accept that human society is going to collapse because selfish and stubborn assholes have run it into the ground and you're just enjoying the ride down. My empathy still kicks in at some point though so I'm stuck with radicalization myself.
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If Biden wins this thing then the debates against Trump will be something else.
From what I've seen of Biden lately the guy can barely string two coherent sentences together.
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On March 04 2020 18:52 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:
If Biden wins this thing then the debates against Trump will be something else.
From what I've seen of Biden lately the guy can barely string two coherent sentences together.
They have that in common so it should just add to the heap of embarrassment the country is to humanity if folks don't wise up and make Bernie the nominee.
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Good video I guess.
+ Show Spoiler +
I'll get back in it at some point.
I will not be defending Biden tho, this is beyond my strength.
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On March 04 2020 19:00 Nebuchad wrote:Good video I guess. + Show Spoiler +https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rKOZPr9B7Fc I'll get back in it at some point. I will not be defending Biden tho, this is beyond my strength.
The guy straight up lied about getting arrested seeing Nelson Mandela, thought his wife was his sister, said he was running for Senate and wanted to appoint "The first African American woman to the Senate" and that's just like the last week.
I almost feel sorry for the people whose job will depend on selling the idea Biden is viable for the next few months when they can't lean on "Maybe he's senile and racist, but he's the only candidate not as senile and racist as Trump" as a campaign slogan.
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American politics are depressing.
Why can you not just have a reasonable election system which enables more than two parties? It is heartbreaking watching all these people who were enthusiastic about politics yesterday come to the conclusion that they will only be able decide between a senile neoliberal and a senile authortarian nationalist.
This is shit. You shouldn't be forced to decide to always vote for the slighly lesser of two evils. I am very happy that i am voting in german elections, where i can actually vote for what i believe in (It might not win, that is democracy, but at least i can vote for it), as opposed to that horrible choice that american voters have.
Fuck the american political system, the corrupt parties, the legal corruption, the money in politics, the backroom deals, the backstabbing and the constant sneaky bullshit. You people deserve better, and you have no chance to get to there.
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Warren asking for donations after getting 3rd in her own state.
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EPT
