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On March 04 2020 01:11 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +On March 04 2020 01:06 NewSunshine wrote:On March 04 2020 00:59 Mohdoo wrote:On March 04 2020 00:53 NewSunshine wrote:
Simple, she still has a substantial base and genuine support. Pete and Amy really don't. It does not follow that she must necessarily be conspiring against Bernie. Biden looks to be laying claim to that distinction at the moment. We should just resume this discussion after today's results I don't know that I care to. I've attempted numerous times to unpack why you're dead set on going after Warren, and I've yet to hear anything that convinces me when there's been an entire field of candidates that have done what she has, and worse, and who have consistently edged her out in whatever war they're waging on Bernie. However this turns out, I'm fairly certain I'll know what your reaction will be, and above that I know I'm not changing your mind anytime soon. I'm ok leaving this here if you are. Warren is the only one running on ostensibly wanting to pursue similar policy to Bernie but is actively sabotaging any chance of that happening by continuing a irrefutably losing campaign.
Do centrist candidates with significant overlap earn similar scorn for fracturing the base in the other direction? Who's to decide this?
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On March 04 2020 01:14 NewSunshine wrote:Show nested quote +On March 04 2020 01:11 GreenHorizons wrote:On March 04 2020 01:06 NewSunshine wrote:On March 04 2020 00:59 Mohdoo wrote:On March 04 2020 00:53 NewSunshine wrote:
Simple, she still has a substantial base and genuine support. Pete and Amy really don't. It does not follow that she must necessarily be conspiring against Bernie. Biden looks to be laying claim to that distinction at the moment. We should just resume this discussion after today's results I don't know that I care to. I've attempted numerous times to unpack why you're dead set on going after Warren, and I've yet to hear anything that convinces me when there's been an entire field of candidates that have done what she has, and worse, and who have consistently edged her out in whatever war they're waging on Bernie. However this turns out, I'm fairly certain I'll know what your reaction will be, and above that I know I'm not changing your mind anytime soon. I'm ok leaving this here if you are. Warren is the only one running on ostensibly wanting to pursue similar policy to Bernie but is actively sabotaging any chance of that happening by continuing a irrefutably losing campaign. Do centrist candidates with significant overlap earn similar scorn for fracturing the base in the other direction? Who's to decide this?
I'm not sure what you're asking? But yeah centrists get it a lot worse than Warren, she still would have been a progressive hero if she endorsed when the centrists (none of them were supportable in Bernie supporters eyes really) did.
Still might be if she drops and endorses after ST.
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What she does down the line will matter if things don't change significantly. I will just finish for now by mentioning that this attitude that she should submit to Bernie, and her supporters need to tow the line, is very similar to a key complaint people had about Hillary: that it was her turn and Bernie supporters needed to get in line or else. I wouldn't discount the possibility that that very attitude is adding to support for Warren that would've otherwise gone to Bernie. Don't assume people are perfectly rational actors that will look past momentary hostility for supporting who you think is the wrong candidate.
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On March 04 2020 01:39 NewSunshine wrote:
What she does down the line will matter if things don't change significantly. I will just finish for now by mentioning that this attitude that she should submit to Bernie, and her supporters need to tow the line, is very similar to a key complaint people had about Hillary: that it was her turn and Bernie supporters needed to get in line or else. I wouldn't discount the possibility that that very attitude is adding to support for Warren that would've otherwise gone to Bernie. Don't assume people are perfectly rational actors that will look past momentary hostility for supporting who you think is the wrong candidate.
The key difference is that Hillary demands we tow the line and support a liberal and provides no good reason why that should happen, it's just her turn. Here we're asking a progressive to do what's best for progressives because otherwise there's a good chance a liberal wins instead. We have a reason why we ask that, and it's not supposed to be a stretch in terms of ideology: her staying in the race is making a worse outcome (according to her purported values) more likely. She isn't expected to want that, hence the disappointment.
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On March 04 2020 01:39 NewSunshine wrote:
What she does down the line will matter if things don't change significantly. I will just finish for now by mentioning that this attitude that she should submit to Bernie, and her supporters need to tow the line, is very similar to a key complaint people had about Hillary: that it was her turn and Bernie supporters needed to get in line or else. I wouldn't discount the possibility that that very attitude is adding to support for Warren that would've otherwise gone to Bernie. Don't assume people are perfectly rational actors that will look past momentary hostility for supporting who you think is the wrong candidate.
You can't compare Warren's electoral position now to Bernie's in 2016 or 2020 at this point with any sincerity. You're right that some people act irrationally against their political interests for shortsighted, selfish, and petty reasons. People make fun of Trump supporters like that regularly. Like I said before, I would hope Warren supporters are smarter/have more integrity than that.
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There's still a chance for things to develop. Pete and Amy dropped out, and I would not lump Warren in with them, especially not if fucking Bloomberg is still hanging around. I find the aggression at this point in time both frustrating and disappointing. I fully understand the basic dynamic at play, but it's other people's votes we're talking about. Getting angry with them for not doing what you would does you no favors.
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I'm never angry at voters, just a little disappointed in Warren. And "a little" because I had my doubts about her for a while, I imagine if I was a bigger fan of her on the progressive side I'd feel a lot worse about this strategy right now.
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On March 04 2020 01:39 NewSunshine wrote:
What she does down the line will matter if things don't change significantly. I will just finish for now by mentioning that this attitude that she should submit to Bernie, and her supporters need to tow the line, is very similar to a key complaint people had about Hillary: that it was her turn and Bernie supporters needed to get in line or else. I wouldn't discount the possibility that that very attitude is adding to support for Warren that would've otherwise gone to Bernie. Don't assume people are perfectly rational actors that will look past momentary hostility for supporting who you think is the wrong candidate.
For me what's disappointing about Warren is not that she's not dropping out, she can stay in as long as she pleases/ affords to.
What's disappointing is, that she s attacking Bernie time and time again, even though they were supposed to be on the same side.
Maybe he's attacking Biden too, i dont really know, I dont follow her that closely, but if she is, the media isnt running with those quotes or soundbites.
It's also disappointing and at the same time kinda impressive that after a quick series of phone calls, bickering rivals such as Pete and Amy come out and endorse Biden, together with Beto and all the rest.
I thought it was kindof an unspoken rule, that since they pledged to support whoever wins the nomination, they dont endorse anyone but the victor at the end.
I mean that's what i assumed, non of the bigger names I'm aware of endorsed anybody till now, like Beto could have sooner if he really felt like that, no? Candidates like Yang or Kamala Harris or Gillibrand took a bow and didnt endorse anyone, so I just kinda got this idea that it's not done.
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On March 04 2020 01:53 Nebuchad wrote:
I'm never angry at voters, just a little disappointed in Warren. And "a little" because I had my doubts about her for a while, I imagine if I was a bigger fan of her on the progressive side I'd feel a lot worse about this strategy right now.
Same, Mohdoo was ready to vote for her if Bernie and Warren's electoral success thus far was switched and he'd probably be going after Bernie for not dropping out (let's be real Sunshine* probably would too) if he was performing so poorly compared to candidates that had already dropped out and endorsed Biden (Beto being the only one that hadn't beat Warren)
EDIT: Just imagine the flack I would get saying Bernie should hang around if 2 people that had already beat him dropped out and endorsed the frontrunner
She lost to Pete in 4 straight contests including SC where he has ~3% support among Black voters.
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On March 04 2020 01:53 Nebuchad wrote:
I'm never angry at voters, just a little disappointed in Warren. And "a little" because I had my doubts for a while, I imagine if I was a bigger fan of her on the progressive side I'd feel a lot worse about this strategy right now.
A reasonable and fair take. Keep in mind I would love as well if Bernie won and secured the nomination. I would be exuberant to vote for him.
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Canada8990 Posts
538 model now has Biden at...65% of winning a plurality, and I also now realize I was keeping track of an indicator that ment pretty much nothing.
I get the drop out but what kind of model can have a 50+ point variation in a day.
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On March 04 2020 00:16 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On March 04 2020 00:13 NewSunshine wrote:On March 04 2020 00:05 Mohdoo wrote:On March 04 2020 00:00 Laurens wrote:On March 03 2020 23:18 Mohdoo wrote:
Warren going in on Bernie the night before super Tuesday. Warren apologists, please tell me why she would attack Bernie right now.
Reminder: Warren is 70. All of these concessions she is making (after being a big progressive ally of Bernie's for so long) for what? Imagine being 70 and being willing to betray values you previously espoused. It's just sad.
To me, this shows that she has 1 goal and she knows this is her last shot. So she may as well cash out all the good will she's built for this one last push for power. Shameful. What do you mean last shot? 78 appears to be the perfect age to try and be president, she should just go again in 2028. Absolutely no chance anyone gives even a 74 year old woman a fair shot I don't see why not. It isn't stopping the men by any means. That's why I said woman. Women are judged more harshly than men in terms of frailty. You know this, so it's weird you're making me recite it. Is it that you think the injustice of how women's frailty is judged in any way ... Sent beat me to it, but are they really in this day and age? Older women candidates? And I'm not talking about Clinton's fall and Merkel's jitters and (if he were a woman) Biden's having trouble getting out complete sentences. This smacks of misogyny-lite: I personally don't have a problem with an older woman running, but these sexist bigots over here in this country ... they're who's going to make that not happen. Boogeymen all the way down, in my opinion. It's like "women aren't as smart or as good of leaders as men" is all grown up, and mixed with a little discrimination based on age, and expressed in a more pandering way. Clinton was fine for the electorate and did well (despite her campaigning skills), and so would Warren if she focuses on becoming a better politician.
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On March 04 2020 02:19 Nakajin wrote:
538 model now has Biden at...65% of winning a plurality, and I also now realize I was keeping track of an indicator that ment pretty much nothing.
I get the drop out but what kind of model can have a 50+ point variation in a day.
it puts heavy emphasis on
- recent results
- recent polls
- endorsements
In the past couple of days a lot has changed in those regards, not that I'm saying it's an accurate prediction, but getting those endorsements in the past 24 hours is valued highly by the model.
I wont be up to follow the vote, I will be waking up at around midnight CST, first thing im doing will be google democratic primary results Texas.
Here s my prediction
If the state is called for Bernie, he will be the nominee
If it's called for Biden, then him
If it's too close to call, than this thing will drag out for months yet.
ofc then i will check the rest of the states as well, but i really think Texas is the best indicator right now
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Northern Ireland27220 Posts
On March 04 2020 01:49 NewSunshine wrote:
There's still a chance for things to develop. Pete and Amy dropped out, and I would not lump Warren in with them, especially not if fucking Bloomberg is still hanging around. I find the aggression at this point in time both frustrating and disappointing. I fully understand the basic dynamic at play, but it's other people's votes we're talking about. Getting angry with them for not doing what you would does you no favors.
I feel society could benefit from more righteous anger instead of milquetoast ‘everyone has their differing opinions’
Anyway I don’t think people are particularly irritated at Warren voters anyway, they’re irritated at Warren herself and quite rightly IMO.
As an aside I’m loathe to buy into the health speculation side of things usually but Biden really does seem to be slowing down a bit and lacking in energy. Why the DNC by and large think he’s so much more electable than Sanders is beyond me. 2008 Biden sure but now?
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Canada8990 Posts
On March 04 2020 02:28 Wombat_NI wrote:Show nested quote +On March 04 2020 01:49 NewSunshine wrote:
There's still a chance for things to develop. Pete and Amy dropped out, and I would not lump Warren in with them, especially not if fucking Bloomberg is still hanging around. I find the aggression at this point in time both frustrating and disappointing. I fully understand the basic dynamic at play, but it's other people's votes we're talking about. Getting angry with them for not doing what you would does you no favors. I feel society could benefit from more righteous anger instead of milquetoast ‘everyone has their differing opinions’ Anyway I don’t think people are particularly irritated at Warren voters anyway, they’re irritated at Warren herself and quite rightly IMO. As an aside I’m loathe to buy into the health speculation side of things usually but Biden really does seem to be slowing down a bit and lacking in energy. Why the DNC by and large think he’s so much more electable than Sanders is beyond me. 2008 Biden sure but now?
Same I was a Warren supporter at the start of this thing, I would have voted for her, but right now she seems to be fucking up for petty reason.
If Biden ends up the candidate she's gonna have nightmare about her decision to stay in for the rest of her life.
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Tbh it makes perfect sense for warren to attack sanders,he more or less is her direct competitor for the progressive vote. Its everyone on their own in the primary for as long as they are in.
Not a fan and dont trust her at all but you cant really blame her for what she is doing thus far. At least not from her perspective which might also have the long term (2024) in mind.
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On March 04 2020 02:45 pmh wrote:
Tbh it makes perfect sense for warren to attack sanders,he more or less is her direct competitor for the progressive vote. Its everyone on their own in the primary for as long as they are in.
Not a fan and dont trust her at all but you cant really blame her for what she is doing thus far. At least not from her perspective which might also have the long term (2024) in mind.
She's attacking Sanders with lies and a less progressive stance, how is that going to get her the progressive vote that she wants. Of course we can blame her for that, and of course we can blame her for calculating that a Trump win is better for her because she'll be in good position in 2024 if that's truly what she is doing.
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Northern Ireland27220 Posts
On March 04 2020 02:53 JimmiC wrote:Show nested quote +On March 04 2020 02:48 Nebuchad wrote:On March 04 2020 02:45 pmh wrote:
Tbh it makes perfect sense for warren to attack sanders,he more or less is her direct competitor for the progressive vote. Its everyone on their own in the primary for as long as they are in.
Not a fan and dont trust her at all but you cant really blame her for what she is doing thus far. At least not from her perspective which might also have the long term (2024) in mind. She's attacking Sanders with lies and a less progressive stance, how is that going to get her the progressive vote that she wants. Of course we can blame her for that, and of course we can blame her for calculating that a Trump win is better for her because she'll be in good position in 2024 if that's truly what she is doing. She is trying to present herself as a bridging candidate between Bernie and Biden because she knows she can't win the Hardcore support for either. Perhaps she is hoping that there is a stalemate between Bernie and Biden and that Bernie supporters will say "we can't live with Biden but we would go with Warren" and that "Biden supporters will say we can't live with Bernie but we could live with Warren". Or many many other options that don't involve her being some sort of evil pawn of the DNC and are in fact far more likely.
Who here is saying that Warren is part of some conspiracy or DNC plot?
The DNC will look to fuck Bernie if they can, unless he gets a crushing mandate which is looking rather unlikely.
Warren claims to be progressive but is putting her career above the advancement of said politics, possibly.
You’re responding to arguments people here aren’t actually making, to basically paraphrase the sole argument here it’s ‘you say you’re progresssive and care about these causes, let’s see your bona fides in action’
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EPT
