EPTNFL 2015 Season - Page 68
| Forum Index > Closed |
|
QuanticHawk
United States32132 Posts
| ||
|
giftdgecko
United States2126 Posts
btw, 2psi is not the correct amount to be saying they were under by, just ask chris mortenson | ||
|
Ghostcom
Denmark4783 Posts
To briefly restate the conclusion of my calculations here: If temperature alone was to be the explanation you have to assume that the refs waited 9+ minutes (and this is letting all possible doubt benefit the Pats) from measuring the last Pats ball until they measured the first Colts ball. Only then does the discrepancy in how much the air-preasure was reduced when comparing Colts and Pats balls make any sense. Considering the time constraint imposed by the length of the half-time break (as well as human nature), this is a ridiculous, if not downright impossible, assumption. In truth, what we can learn from this is that Brady (and the Pats) are probably guilty of systematically deflating their balls. The NFL once again screwed up in their investigation. We would all be better off if the organisation was competent - but that is less likely to happen than a Pats fan admitting to the existence of the deflating. EDIT: Note: I would actually really like if someone would redo my calculations. | ||
|
giftdgecko
United States2126 Posts
Measuring 4 balls and comparing them to 12, then ignoring that it falls within the gas law estimates for the correct gauge, combined with the fact that the PSI drop in one of the Patriots matches one of the Colts balls means there can't be a scientific conclusion and if anything it leans in the favor of nothing happening. There isn't a need to do napkin math because it has been done out, it's in the report and plenty of scientific people have done it. You don't want to go read it that's fine, but the AEI paper is where you can find the most thorough analysis. I don't feel like arguing over it with you because you've made your position clear from the beginning, and until the season is over and we (hopefully) see the results from the PSI measurements of this season, making a statement that something happened is asinine. But hey, I'm just a blind patriots fan with no napkin math to my name. | ||
|
Ghostcom
Denmark4783 Posts
Neither you, nor the AEI, have addressed the time constraint issue sufficiently. There are simply too many incontrollable assumptions which is why everyone from Wells to AEI is struggling to get a proper grip on the case. To parade that around as if that means science exonerates Brady is pretty ignorant. But let's end it here. Neither of us are going to convince the other - you'll always consider Brady innocent (don't pretend like you had made up your mind any less than me from the start) and I'll probably always be suspicious. | ||
NonY
8751 Posts
On August 07 2015 03:19 QuanticHawk wrote: yeah circumstantial and def not enough to suspend or do anything imo but come on, it's blatantly obvious that faults aside, the team was softening up the balls per brady's request. but that's legal... | ||
|
ragz_gt
9172 Posts
| ||
|
whatisthisasheep
624 Posts
| ||
Shellshock
United States97276 Posts
| ||
|
JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
| ||
|
whatisthisasheep
624 Posts
On August 08 2015 01:18 JimmiC wrote: He so lucky he's freaky good because otherwise he not only would be out of the league but he would be in jail. He might end up there anyways! He is just like Josh Gordon, young and being stupid. We all did dumb things when we were young and I dont hold it against them. If I had that talent and millions of dollars I would be doing the same thing. The NFL needs to give them a break. | ||
|
AgentW
United States7725 Posts
| ||
|
giftdgecko
United States2126 Posts
On August 07 2015 16:10 Ghostcom wrote: I did read the paper (in fact I've read or skimmed everything you linked I think) - the Nobel Laureate you linked at one point made the assumption that 9 minutes passed (although not explicitly). The AEI report says that ideally one would account for the precise time each ball was measured, as there was no timestamp for each measurement this would be impossible. What I show is that for temperature to be the explanation there would have to be a break between measuring the 2 sets of balls of 9+ minutes. The AEI even writes they seem to find such a break when doing their multiple regression, however they fail to consider that the half-time was only 12 minutes (which gives the refs 3 minutes to collect the balls, get off the field to their office, measure all the Pats balls and 4 of the Colts balls, and get back on to the field) and simply conclude that the waiting time (along with switched gauges) must be the explanation. And then we are completely ignoring the texts of 'the deflator', the detour on the way to the field, the 'I'm not going to ESPN - yet". Neither you, nor the AEI, have addressed the time constraint issue sufficiently. There are simply too many incontrollable assumptions which is why everyone from Wells to AEI is struggling to get a proper grip on the case. To parade that around as if that means science exonerates Brady is pretty ignorant. But let's end it here. Neither of us are going to convince the other - you'll always consider Brady innocent (don't pretend like you had made up your mind any less than me from the start) and I'll probably always be suspicious. In the beginning of this when Mort tweeted 2 PSI under, I apologized for my teams actions. So no my mind wasn't immediately made up that they did nothing wrong. The time frame, with the balls arriving out late, the fact that someone had to inform the officials of the procedure, a couple of league officials were down there deciding what to do, is enough for me to cover the time issue. I can think of a scenario on 9 minutes between balls being measured pretty easily. It supposedly takes an old man 60 seconds to let air out of 12. Again, this needs to be looked at after having proper controls as time is only one of the variables not looked at properly. The texts I ignore because reading my own texts with no context of the actual conversation that went on that day are ignorant. ex: I called my wife a bitch after she texted that she had to write someone up for being late to work; the conversation the night before was about how someone thought she was being too hard on her employees. That stuff doesn't show up. That's the context that is missing and can't be found and I find it wholly unfair to look at texts alone, especially from these two who are always making stupid jokes back and forth (case in point is still "Dorito Dink"). I've encouraged several people to look through their own texts from as far back as they can and most find an instance similar to this where the explanation is a joke or "oh it was part of an earlier conversation", perhaps you are different. Either way, Brady has nothing linking him to this even if something did happen and the Patriots are still hit with a heavy handed penalty that makes no sense. In other news, the Colts are asking people to bring their expired or unused prescription drugs to the stadium to be "disposed of". Irsay could not be reached for comment  | ||
|
QuanticHawk
United States32132 Posts
| ||
|
QuanticHawk
United States32132 Posts
This season is gonna blow. Thank god I'm going to curbstomp everyone in fantasy | ||
|
ZasZ.
United States2911 Posts
On August 08 2015 01:22 whatisthisasheep wrote: He is just like Josh Gordon, young and being stupid. We all did dumb things when we were young and I dont hold it against them. If I had that talent and millions of dollars I would be doing the same thing. The NFL needs to give them a break. This is like his fifth arrest in three years. I feel he's probably had enough breaks at this point, and commend the 49ers for trying to help him for as long as they did. Hopefully he can figure his shit out, but for now he's a fucking menace to society. | ||
|
JimmyJRaynor
Canada17486 Posts
"The Cowboys and the Indian" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/cowboys-and-indian-fivethirtyeight-films-signals/ | ||
|
On_Slaught
United States12190 Posts
| ||
|
xDaunt
United States17988 Posts
On August 08 2015 03:39 QuanticHawk wrote: niners will now apparently released said useless retard This season is gonna blow. Thank god I'm going to curbstomp everyone in fantasy Being a Niners fan this past year has been like getting kicked in the nuts repeatedly for 12 months. | ||
|
y0su
Finland7871 Posts
On August 08 2015 01:22 whatisthisasheep wrote: He is just like Josh Gordon, young and being stupid. We all did dumb things when we were young and I dont hold it against them. If I had that talent and millions of dollars I would be doing the same thing. The NFL needs to give them a break. He's got legal issues to deal with first... why should the NFL give a break to someone that makes them look bad? (I mean worse than they make themselves look) Also, I have zero patience for anyone who gets a DUI. There's no reason he isn't taking a cab to and from the club. | ||
| ||
