EPTI definitely TL;DR'ed you
Apologies. I was hungover and your post was really long and I didn't like it's tone so I attacked it. I feel ashamed.I'll give a valid response, that takes into account your entire post in a sec.
Ukraine Crisis - Page 448
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Mc
332 Posts
I definitely TL;DR'ed you Apologies. I was hungover and your post was really long and I didn't like it's tone so I attacked it. I feel ashamed.I'll give a valid response, that takes into account your entire post in a sec. | ||
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nunez
Norway4003 Posts
kerry was lying in syria and he's lying now. he's a clown, but de-escalation is key. the ball is in ukraine's court (both west and east) not russias however, but it's unclear how much slack russia is giving maidan wrt use of violence against anti-maidan... ukraine needs to start unfucking this situation themselves without use of violence. | ||
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Gorsameth
Netherlands22598 Posts
On April 25 2014 23:06 nunez wrote: @bobli kerry was lying in syria and he's lying now. he's a clown, but de-escalation is key. the ball is in ukraine's court (both west and east) not russias however, but it's unclear how much slack russia is giving maidan wrt use of violence against anti-maidan... ukraine needs to start unfucking this situation themselves without use of violence. When the accord was reached the Ukraine government stopped there operations. Russia did not withdraw its forces from the border and the seperatists did not surrender the buildings they had taken. How is the ball in Ukraine's court here? The other sides of the agreement did not follow through so the government had to resume there actions against the separatists. | ||
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nunez
Norway4003 Posts
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Gorsameth
Netherlands22598 Posts
On April 25 2014 23:15 nunez wrote: the anti-maidan protestors are doing exactly what the maidan were doing in this respect. uncle sam and big bear is not gonna kiss it right for maidan / anti-maidan, they have to sort it out themselves. which is why Russia keeps threatening to invade if the government uses violence against armed separatists right? | ||
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Dangermousecatdog
United Kingdom7084 Posts
On April 25 2014 23:15 nunez wrote: the anti-maidan protestors are doing exactly what the maidan were doing in this respect. uncle sam and big bear is not gonna kiss it right for maidan / anti-maidan, they have to sort it out themselves and so the ball is in kievs court if they consider themselves a legitimate govt. I wasn't aware that euromaiden protesters went around capturing, torturing to death and murdering local politicians and journalists in areas where they had gained control over. Would you care to elaborate? | ||
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nunez
Norway4003 Posts
@several small animals did you catch the phrase 'in that respect'? a deal was brokered that stated armed protestors vacate govt buildings, subsequent refusal and govt attemption to violently disperse said protestors... this should ring a maidan-bell for you. i'd be wary of taking news eminating from kiev at face value, criminals should be treated accordingly, but de-escalation, reconciliation and a functioning democracy is needed for that to happen. | ||
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Dangermousecatdog
United Kingdom7084 Posts
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Deleted User 137586
7859 Posts
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Mc
332 Posts
So I did TL:DR you a bit but I disagree w/ some of your points and I believe you that your reasoning is faulty. I agree with you that Russia doesn't care about the rebels - the rebels are a means to an end (destabilizing/punishing Ukraine). I agree that Russia has no direct control over the rebels. I agree that what a lot of Western media is implying (Kerry especially) is stating assumptions as fact and is exaggerating. However, I disagree with you on what Russia can do to defuse the conflict. You multiple times stated that Russia can't really do much about it Short of stepping in and telling them to shut up (assuming they wanted to), I don't think there's a whole lot Russia can do about this situation. But then, Russia can't step in without this being an invasion lol. However, you can't "defuse" a situation you don't control. Short of crushing the insurgents themselves, they're doing what they can on their end of the bargain, I think Russia is sending a very clear message to the insurgents by not helping them that Russia is not supporting the insurgency in Ukraine As I stated Russia could 1.)Remove troops from the border 2.) Putin tells the rebels to disarm 3.) Putin tells the world that he won't invade E. Ukraine 4.) Russian parliament removes Putin's right to intervene to protect Russian speakers. All four of these things are giving the rebels a feeling of purpose and protection. Clearly it would weaken the rebel's position if they knew that Russia wouldn't intervene. Would this solve the crisis? Probably not by itself, but it'd definitely be a huge step in the right direction. I don't know the exact wording of the Geneva agreement, but I think they agreed they'd all try to defuse the situation. Russia clearly isn't trying to defuse it. The fact that Russia "is not supporting the insurgency" (by giving arms) does not mean that it's "sending a very clear message". First off, the rebels are really well armed already and I think have more arms than people who know how to use them at this point. Second off, Russia has explicitly 'supported' the rebels by massing troops and telling the world that they will intervene if Ukraine sends in the military. So the rebels still feel they have Russia's support, but they're just not 100% sure of it. Regardless of the situation, Russian's refusal of help is even more significant an action than what you listed. Some words thrown the insurgents' way is minuscule a point in comparison. I think the fact that the Russians aren't following our style and arming these insurgents to the teeth is doing a lot more than I or anyone expected of them. Yes, Russia is also not bombing Kiev. Good job Russia, you are really 'helping'. Yes that's great that Russia isn't giving them arms directly (maybe not giving them arms at all). But it's still doing things to make sure this unrest happens. We both agree that Russia wants this unrest to continue. I believe that Russia took purposeful action to help provoke it (threats to invade, troop build ups). I also believe that it wouldn't be surprising if Russia were doing more. We can say Russians are masters of espionage, but something on this scale and considering the insurgents are a bunch of buffoons who yell about anything that happens, this would have had a lot of proof by now. It's pretty difficult to hide. But, unfortunately, we have no proof, as you say. I never said that Russia is literally orchestrating this. Russia doesn't have to do a lot or anything on a large scale to help the rebels because there is legitimate support for the rebels in E. Ukraine. However Russia could do little *extra things* like secretly giving them some weapons, or sabotage of Ukrainian troops, or killing this guy or that guy, or having a few FSB officers come in and help an attack on a radio tower, etc, are all in the realm of reasonable things to consider. I *am not* saying these things happened, just that similar actions could have and given Russia's behaviour in Crimea and elsewhere it *wouldn't be surprising*. Furthermore, Russia would only do these extra things to make sure the rebels are solid enough to provide resistance, but to limit the chance of Russia being caught. So maybe the troop buildup on the Ukrainian border for a month, plus the threats of invasion were enough support to embolden the radicals in E. Ukraine to rise up. Maybe Russia didn't even need to do any 'extra work'. However, given how much 'suggestions' I have seen of more direct Russian involvement, and given that this didn't seem like a very natural uprising (from the middle of March till April 7th things were relatively quiet, then suddenly all hell breaks loose and in less then a week dozens of buildings are taken over), I would say it's very probable that Russia did do some more direct meddling in the uprising. | ||
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nunez
Norway4003 Posts
On April 25 2014 23:34 Dangermousecatdog wrote: What is there not to understand? It's a short and succinct statement and question. Or are you being deliberately obtuse? you posted as i was replying to gorsameth. i edited my post now. | ||
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radiatoren
Denmark1907 Posts
On April 25 2014 23:33 nunez wrote: @gorsameth i don't understand, can you clarify your point? @several small animals did you catch the phrase 'in that respect'? a deal was brokered that stated armed protestors vacate govt buildings, subsequent refusal and govt attemption to violently disperse said protestors... this should ring a maidan-bell for you. i'd be wary of taking news eminating from kiev at face value, criminals should be treated accordingly, but de-escalation, reconciliation and a functioning democracy is needed for that to happen. I think he means the more recent comments from Churkin, Shoigu and Lavrov/Putin | ||
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Deleted User 137586
7859 Posts
*** Regarding the idea that Russia doesn't control the separatists, I'm sorry, but you don't get to lie about involvement, annex a region, and then reveal that those were troops after all, and then, a few weeks later, claim that you have no involvement while similar actions occur. Even if Russia is entirely innocent (which it is not, as it's supporting the rebels using diplomatic means and by threatening with an invasion), the international community must assume that Russia is guilty because otherwise they can repeat the Crimea scenario every single time. | ||
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nunez
Norway4003 Posts
yes, i got that part. russia is not going to de-escalate their conflict for them, that's half my point. that a violent response to the anti-maidan will exacerbate conflict, and a too violent response would be criminal seems like good advice though... | ||
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Deleted User 137586
7859 Posts
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Mc
332 Posts
On April 26 2014 00:12 nunez wrote: @radi yes, i got that part. russia is not going to de-escalate their conflict for them, that's half my point. that a violent response to the anti-maidan will exacerbate conflict, and a too violent response would be criminal seems like good advice though... Yes that is good advice, however it seems ironic given other Russian actions. Do you think that Russian massing troops on Ukraine's border for a month and threatening to invade Ukraine is exacerbating the conflict? The ball is in Russia's court too, but Russia is pretending it isn't. | ||
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m4ini
4215 Posts
On April 26 2014 00:12 nunez wrote: @radi yes, i got that part. russia is not going to de-escalate their conflict for them, that's half my point. that a violent response to the anti-maidan will exacerbate conflict, and a too violent response would be criminal seems like good advice though... Could you briefly explain how a proper de-escalation would look like? Since, if one side is commited to escalate a conflict and is not willing to have "peace", there's no way to de-escalate a conflict. | ||
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radiatoren
Denmark1907 Posts
On April 26 2014 00:12 nunez wrote: @radi yes, i got that part. russia is not going to de-escalate their conflict for them, that's half my point. that a violent response to the anti-maidan will exacerbate conflict, and a too violent response would be criminal seems like good advice though... As sound as the "advice" is, it carries an inherent threat. Where I see the problem is Russia verbally supporting the anti-maidans militaristic occupation and organisation in particularly Slavyansk. As you can see by the murders and torture of a politician and some journalists, there is an inherrent problem of the occupiers not sufficiently protecting "minority - or even majority - opinions". You see the problem? | ||
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Derez
Netherlands6068 Posts
The Russian foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, appears to have offered a deal to resolve the crisis in eastern Ukraine, suggesting that if the country's government clears out the nationalist protest camp in Kiev, then pro-Moscow separatists will lay down their arms. Source | ||
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nunez
Norway4003 Posts
step one: round up any non-ukrainian pointing their finger on 'one side' up, back tie them, put them in a bag. step two: wait. | ||
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