+ Show Spoiler +
Also I'm going to assume people suggesting or implying war with Russia are joking. lol
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Deleted User 183001
2939 Posts
March 07 2014 06:34 GMT
#4621
+ Show Spoiler + Also I'm going to assume people suggesting or implying war with Russia are joking. lol | ||
Sub40APM
6336 Posts
March 07 2014 06:40 GMT
#4622
On March 07 2014 15:32 {CC}StealthBlue wrote: Is it just me or has Germany shown itself to be really a pushover. I mean Poland and Lithuania have protested and done more in support of Ukraine than the supposed strongman of Europe. Well on one hand, Germany doesnt have to fear Russian invasion whereas if you are Lithuania -- despite being in EU and NATO -- you can imagine getting Crimeaed. "Local self defense groups" popping up while Russia's race based foreign policy kicks up in high gear. Sure, its hard to imagine Putin tangling with NATO/EU in such an outright matter, since the Ukraine situation was rather unique, but then again who would have expected Putin trying to annex Crimea away from Ukraine before February? On the other hand, its a good cop/bad cop type situation. The English/Americans and the Eastern European-ex-victims of the Soviets can be relied upon to do the bad cop stuff and Merkel can be the 'reasonable' adult. And on the third hand, unless they turn their nuclear reactors back on or find a bunch of gas under Saxony what are they going to do, grind down their economy for some poor country? Just as they've just won the mastery over Europe? http://en.ria.ru/world/20140307/188153844/Crimean-Tatar-Minority-to-Boycott-Secession-Vote.html The semi-formal government of the Crimean Tatars said Thursday that the ethnic minority will boycott the secession referendum set by the Ukrainian region’s pro-Russian authorities. The majlis requests an armed UN peacekeeping force be deployed in the Crimean peninsula, Chubarov said. | ||
zatic
Zurich15300 Posts
March 07 2014 06:56 GMT
#4623
On March 07 2014 15:32 {CC}StealthBlue wrote: Is it just me or has Germany shown itself to be really a pushover. I mean Poland and Lithuania have protested and done more in support of Ukraine than the supposed strongman of Europe. Welcome to Merkel administration foreign policy Actually so far I am more content with how they handled it than most international issues in recent years. Compared to the Libya disaster Germany still looks quite solid. | ||
Sub40APM
6336 Posts
March 07 2014 07:05 GMT
#4624
On March 07 2014 15:56 zatic wrote: Show nested quote + On March 07 2014 15:32 {CC}StealthBlue wrote: Is it just me or has Germany shown itself to be really a pushover. I mean Poland and Lithuania have protested and done more in support of Ukraine than the supposed strongman of Europe. Welcome to Merkel administration foreign policy Actually so far I am more content with how they handled it than most international issues in recent years. Compared to the Libya disaster Germany still looks quite solid. was Schroeder any better? | ||
SilentchiLL
Germany1405 Posts
March 07 2014 07:26 GMT
#4625
On March 07 2014 16:05 Sub40APM wrote: Show nested quote + On March 07 2014 15:56 zatic wrote: On March 07 2014 15:32 {CC}StealthBlue wrote: Is it just me or has Germany shown itself to be really a pushover. I mean Poland and Lithuania have protested and done more in support of Ukraine than the supposed strongman of Europe. Welcome to Merkel administration foreign policy Actually so far I am more content with how they handled it than most international issues in recent years. Compared to the Libya disaster Germany still looks quite solid. was Schroeder any better? Schröder flipped Bush off when he wanted to pull us into the Iraq war, so I still like him more in that regard. On March 07 2014 15:32 {CC}StealthBlue wrote: Is it just me or has Germany shown itself to be really a pushover. I mean Poland and Lithuania have protested and done more in support of Ukraine than the supposed strongman of Europe. It's just you, she tried to be the middle-(wo)man in the situation and to calm it down with talks before starting to threaten people, you could see it as a relic from the time when West Germany had to deal with East Germany, once we stopped clashing heads every time and focussed on common projects and goals, East Germany was slowly nudged closer to the West and cooperation between the 2 states became a lot easier. It was called the "New Eastern Politicy", started in the 70s under the political motto "Wandel durch Annäherung", which is usually translated as "change through rapprochement" I think and it worked pretty well. I don't blame her for trying to talk to Putin before threatening him and therefore helping him to unite his country under him, it's always easier not to be divided when you can point to other countries threatening your own. EDIT: On March 07 2014 15:40 Sub40APM wrote: And on the third hand, unless they turn their nuclear reactors back on or find a bunch of gas under Saxony what are they going to do, grind down their economy for some poor country? Just as they've just won the mastery over Europe? I think that's really not that important here for different reasons, we import Gas from Norway as well, and there's also this http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/03/ukraine-crisis-gas-europe-idUSL6N0M01VY20140303 Plus, getting/buying energy from other countries really isn't a new concept here | ||
Liman
Serbia681 Posts
March 07 2014 08:15 GMT
#4626
On March 07 2014 15:34 JudicatorHammurabi wrote: Good video providing some historical background in regards to Crimea and Ukraine, discussing events from the Crimean War to USSR to the Orange Revolution to the current Russia - EU/US tug-of-war. See spoiler. + Show Spoiler + https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A2nklduvThs Also I'm going to assume people suggesting or implying war with Russia are joking. lol That video is not that good when guy admits he made many mistakes in making it lol Hes even too lazy to remake it and do it right. And its colored by propaganda. | ||
Sub40APM
6336 Posts
March 07 2014 08:19 GMT
#4627
http://www.pravda.ru/news/world/07-03-2014/1197627-separatizm-0/ Запад забирает территорию, чтобы создать зону нестабильности, отсекающую Россию, в случае Украины, от прямых стратегических контактов с Европой. Чтобы не дать России и Европе объединить свои усилия, экономический и стратегический потенциал и создать субъект, который мог бы быть противовесом американской гегемонии. The West is taking away territory, in order to create a zone of instability, that will cut off, in case of Ukraine, with direct strategic contacts with Europe. So that Russia and Europe cannot unit their forces, to unite their economic and strategic potential to create an object that could stand against American hegemony. Россия, в свою очередь, пытается отстоять эти территории. Косово отстоять не удалось, Югославию мы сдали в силу слабости и неготовности встать за свои интересы. Мы сдали Восточную Европу, постсоветское пространство. Но на Украине Россия остановилась в своем отступлении и решила закрепить линию фронта для того, чтобы перейти в стратегическое контрнаступление. Russia in turn is trying to keep these territories. To keep Kosovo proved impossible, in Yugoslavia we surrendered to weakness and unwillingness to stand up to our interests. We surrendered Eastern Europe after the Soviet Union. But in Ukraine, Russia stopped its retreat and decided to fortify the front line in order to began a strategic counter attack. В случае же, если Украина окажется под влияние Запада, она превратится просто в территорию хаоса, взаимной резни и абсолютной тотальной нищеты, как-то, что мы наблюдаем в других государствах, доставшихся Западу после крушения СССР. In case if Ukraine happens to fall under the influence of the West, she will turn simply into a territory of chaos, mutual massacre and absolutely total poverty, just like we have seen in other governments that fell to the West after the collapse of the USSR. [my editorial: You hear that Baltic bros, you are a territory of chaos and mutual massacre] Как теперь регулировать мировой порядок? Что заменит Хельсинкский акт о "нерушимости границ, невмешательстве во внутренние дела государств"? How can we now maintain world order? What will replace Helsinki agreement on "non violation of borders, non interference in foreign affairs"? (I think they mean this? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Helsinki_Accords) — Данные акты были подписаны в эпоху, когда Россия имела серьезный геополитический вес. После этого картина мира значительно изменилась. СССР перестал существовать, соответственно, все соглашения, которые были подписаны в этот период, потеряли свое значение. The underlying act was signed at the time when Russia had a serious geopolitical weight. After that, the picture of the world changed. USSR ceased to exist, therefore all of its agreements lost their value Потеряли особенно в тех государствах, которые так же перестали существовать и превратились в зону противостояния великой войны континентов между Евразией и Атлантикой. They especially lost their value in those governments that also ceased to exist and turned into the zone of resistance of the great war of continents between Eurasia and Atlantic. Here is a story on the Crimean delegation that arrived today in Moscow: http://izvestia.ru/news/567114 Kрымские парламентарии проведут встречи с руководством Госдумы и Совета Федерации, на которых обсудят порядок проведения референдума о статусе Республики Крым, готовность к нему местных властей, а также предложение о переносе столицы Крыма в Севастополь. Как заявили «Известиям» российские парламентарии, крымчанам будет оказана любая помощь, которая потребуется от России. The Crimean delegation will have meetings with leadership of both houses of Russian legislature, during which there will be discussions on the order of the execution of the referendum on the status of the Republic of Crimea, preparation of this by local authorities and a suggestion to transfer the capital to Sevastopol. As it was announced by the Russian parliament, the Crimeans will receive any help that they will need from Russia. Кроме того, Верховный совет Крыма обратился к Владимиру Путину и обеим палатам российского парламента с предложением начать процедуру вхождения Крыма в состав России в качестве нового субъекта. Besides this, the high council of Crimea turned to V. Putin and both houses of Russian parliament with request to begin the process of joining crime to the Russian federation as a new subject — Нет времени ждать. Новая киевская власть применяет репрессивные меры ко всем, кто не согласен с ее решениями. Например, на оппонирующих ей активистов в Харькове, Донецке возбуждаются уголовные дела, а в отношении Крыма звучат предложения от радикально настроенных атаманов навести там порядок, — пояснил «Известиям» народный депутат Украины Олег Царев. There is no time to wait, declared national deputy of Ukraine Oleg Zarev, the new powers in Kiev are expanding repression against all who dont agree with it. For example, against opposition forces in Kharkiv, Donetsk they are passing criminal cases, and in relation to Crimea there are suggestion from 'radical oriented ataman (ataman is the Russian word for leader of cossacks) to 'create there order' (so the whole sentence basically means radical fascists want to invade crimea and restore order by killing Russians). Барак Обама нагнетает истерию, играет мускулами для того, чтобы выиграть для себя как можно больше преференций в переговорном процессе. Не думаю, что США на самом деле рискнут применять военную силу с учетом того, что возможностей для маневра у этого крейсера немного, а в случае обострения ситуации уйти назад он не сможет, так как ему сложно будет конкурировать с огневой мощью Черноморского флота России, — отметил сенатор Игорь Морозов. Barrack Obama is raising hysterics and playing with his muscles in order to secure as much as possible preference in the negotiation process, noted Senator Igor Morozov. I dont think the USA in reality will risk to deploy military forces [referring to the war ship entering the black sea] because this cruiser has little possibility for maneuver and in an event of an exchange of fire it will not manage to escape because it will be difficult to compete with the firepower of the mighty Russian Black Fleet finally, the more business oriented paper raises issues of the cost of occupying Crimea for Russia. http://www.kommersant.ru/doc/2425287 Правительство РФ не выглядит готовым к интеграции Крыма. Официальных мнений и оценок не существует, эксперты позволяют предположить, что Крым потребует от бюджета минимум $3 млрд в год дополнительных расходов. Причем первые транши будут необходимы в оперативном режиме — чтобы избежать оттока населения, чей уровень жизни на первом этапе неизбежно упадет. The leadership of the Russian Federation does not look prepared to the integration of Crimea. Official opinion and calculation does not exist, experts predict provisionally that Crimea will require a minimum of 3 billion a year of extra expenditure. And the first tranche of this spending will need to come almost immediately in order to prevent a rapid fall in living standards | ||
ticklishmusic
United States15977 Posts
March 07 2014 08:20 GMT
#4628
On March 07 2014 17:15 Liman wrote: Show nested quote + On March 07 2014 15:34 JudicatorHammurabi wrote: Good video providing some historical background in regards to Crimea and Ukraine, discussing events from the Crimean War to USSR to the Orange Revolution to the current Russia - EU/US tug-of-war. See spoiler. + Show Spoiler + https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A2nklduvThs Also I'm going to assume people suggesting or implying war with Russia are joking. lol That video is not that good when guy admits he made many mistakes in making it lol Hes even too lazy to remake it and do it right. And its colored by propaganda. I'm guessing you've never heard of John Green. Please wow us with your expertise of eastern european politics since he's clearly unable to do so. | ||
semantics
10040 Posts
March 07 2014 08:30 GMT
#4629
On March 07 2014 12:21 SilentchiLL wrote: Show nested quote + On March 07 2014 12:04 darkness wrote: Also what bothers me is that, as I've expected, China may team up with Russia and that could be one deadly co-operation. China would never go to war with anybody over such a trivial russian interest like that. Economically China has way more connections with the west than with Russia, they may agree with Putin and back him up in a lot of things, but China wouldn't go to war with the west for him. People misunderstand China's history with siding with Russia as to mean actual ideological agreement in how to operate internationally. China just rather have conflict than homogeneity in the international community as that could lead to international affairs concentrated to what China is doing in the south pacific. China in large part acts to be left alone. They certainly do not want to be involved in open conflict. | ||
Cheerio
Ukraine3178 Posts
March 07 2014 08:30 GMT
#4630
On March 07 2014 09:54 Dracover wrote: Show nested quote + On March 07 2014 08:58 Cheerio wrote: On March 07 2014 08:43 Saumure wrote: Was not really specified who said what. But it doesn't really matter, because if Russia and the Russian billionaires sell, China could not afford not to sell... (edit: hypothetically ofc, I don't want to get in any trouble here) I don't really see why would USA be scared of that. A bond is basically somebody's debt. If your current debt holder decides to sell it (clearly at a discount) to somebody else, why would you freak out? It probably hurts the seller more than anyone else, and clearly I can't imagine a worse debt holder for USA than Russia. And for China the smart thing to do would be not sell, but buy the debt Russia is selling. Unless they know something about WW3 coming or USA going bancrupt, but in that case they should be selling debt already. I'm no expert but my normal mans understanding is there will be too much liquidity and create chaos in finance markets. e.g. If all your investment banks of the world bought all the bonds Russia and China, where will the money come from? At the moment the funds will be invested in shares, property and various other investment types. If they wanted to buy these bonds they will have to sell their investment in shares and property etc to be able to buy these bonds which essentially will drive down all the prices in other financial areas. Also I don't think you will even need to sell at a huge loss. E.g. if USD100 bond at the moment generates a return of 5% and a $100 investment in property generates a return of 9% where 4% represents the additional risk investing in property vs investing in bonds. All you have to do is sell the bond at $99 and an investor will say that will give me a 5% premium where the risk is 4%. etc and to do have the $99 they will sell their property which will drive down property prices. no, there would be not too much liquidity, there would be too little. Currently Russia holds bonds and the market has the liquidity. It always has. I've read recently that there is again too much cheap money and they are driving prices up at the stock markets, driving too much, so taking that liquidity is actually good for the markets. Now if Russia comes in that will soak up the liquidity from the market and send it Russia's way. Even if the markets have to sell assets to buy discounted bonds (we are talking some major discount now, not 1%, more like 5% or more), do we have any information about the size of the bonds Russia holds to suggest it is even remotely big enough to shake the financial markets? And even if THAT happens, US and EU can take measures to increase the liquidity on the markets. I really don't see why anyone should be scared. P.S. And one more thing. Contrary to the situation with shares, you don't need to sell bonds when their price goes down, unless you are worried the issuer will default (which is the usual reason for them to become cheaper). In a situation like this you actually want to buy the underpirced bonds. | ||
Cheerio
Ukraine3178 Posts
March 07 2014 08:31 GMT
#4631
Bulgarian journalists attacked in Crimea. The main goal was to take away almost all of their equipment, including smartphones. http://news.liga.net/video/politics/997059-v_simferopole_lyudi_v_kamuflyazhe_napali_na_zhurnalistov_iz_bolgarii.htm | ||
Deleted User 183001
2939 Posts
March 07 2014 08:38 GMT
#4632
On March 07 2014 17:15 Liman wrote: Show nested quote + On March 07 2014 15:34 JudicatorHammurabi wrote: Good video providing some historical background in regards to Crimea and Ukraine, discussing events from the Crimean War to USSR to the Orange Revolution to the current Russia - EU/US tug-of-war. See spoiler. + Show Spoiler + https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A2nklduvThs Also I'm going to assume people suggesting or implying war with Russia are joking. lol That video is not that good when guy admits he made many mistakes in making it lol Hes even too lazy to remake it and do it right. And its colored by propaganda. The only mistake he made was mixing up "eastern" and "western". Also, there is no logical reason to remake a video for such a tiny thing. Annotations cover it properly. Also, at the beginning, his statement that he may have left things out or appeared to understate something was a disclaimer because there's always assholes on YouTube who will be like "omg you forgot this one completely insignificant and irrelevant fact, you're so bad". This is why such disclaimers exist, because smartasses abound, especially on the Internet. hehe On March 07 2014 17:31 Cheerio wrote: Bulgarian journalists attacked in Crimea. The main goal was to take away almost all of their equipment, including smartphones. Who is doing the attacking? Obviously there are security issues in Crimea for things like this to happen. | ||
Feartheguru
Canada1334 Posts
March 07 2014 08:45 GMT
#4633
On March 07 2014 09:03 Jaaaaasper wrote: Show nested quote + On March 07 2014 08:56 m4ini wrote: Or they could just kick out putin and blame the whole thing on him. Most likely by far the best solution, but also the most unlikely to happen. Yeah as long as theres 140% turn out in voting districts he might lose, hes a autocrat. Yeah, and as long as you say stuff like this you show you have no understanding of Russia and are just circlejerking. Whether you like him or not, his popularity in Russia is undeniable. | ||
Cheerio
Ukraine3178 Posts
March 07 2014 08:46 GMT
#4634
On March 07 2014 17:38 JudicatorHammurabi wrote: Show nested quote + On March 07 2014 17:31 Cheerio wrote: Bulgarian journalists attacked in Crimea. The main goal was to take away almost all of their equipment, including smartphones. Who is doing the attacking? Obviously there are security issues in Crimea for things like this to happen. Are you asking to be spoonfed information? | ||
Sub40APM
6336 Posts
March 07 2014 09:04 GMT
#4635
On March 07 2014 17:38 JudicatorHammurabi wrote: Show nested quote + On March 07 2014 17:31 Cheerio wrote: Bulgarian journalists attacked in Crimea. The main goal was to take away almost all of their equipment, including smartphones. Who is doing the attacking? Obviously there are security issues in Crimea for things like this to happen. probably the same people who attacked the UN envoy and blocked the OSCE delegation they have the same outfits and everything. | ||
Sub40APM
6336 Posts
March 07 2014 09:10 GMT
#4636
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Deleted User 183001
2939 Posts
March 07 2014 09:15 GMT
#4637
On March 07 2014 17:46 Cheerio wrote: Show nested quote + On March 07 2014 17:38 JudicatorHammurabi wrote: On March 07 2014 17:31 Cheerio wrote: Bulgarian journalists attacked in Crimea. The main goal was to take away almost all of their equipment, including smartphones. Who is doing the attacking? Obviously there are security issues in Crimea for things like this to happen. Are you asking to be spoonfed information? I'm sorry, but I don't know a specific Slavic language spoken by 40-50 million people to be able to read the video description and comments (assuming the information answering my was there). All that was stated was Bulgarian reporters were attacked. All the video showed were people (presumably the Bulgarian reporters) being attacked. Who did the attacking? It certainly wasn't Russian soldiers, or else there would be a huge uproar. As stated in my previous comment, there's security issues, to say nothing else. Thank you Sub40APM for your reply. On March 07 2014 17:45 Feartheguru wrote: Show nested quote + On March 07 2014 09:03 Jaaaaasper wrote: On March 07 2014 08:56 m4ini wrote: Or they could just kick out putin and blame the whole thing on him. Most likely by far the best solution, but also the most unlikely to happen. Yeah as long as theres 140% turn out in voting districts he might lose, hes a autocrat. Yeah, and as long as you say stuff like this you show you have no understanding of Russia and are just circlejerking. Whether you like him or not, his popularity in Russia is undeniable. Hahaha. I hate to even remotely sound like I'm supporting the Russian political system, but if I recall correctly (and please correct me), that 140% thing was a typo by a local news station in some area that all the trolls on the Internet caught and spread misinformation about. But this type circlejerking is the foundation of nationalism, whether it be America, Russia, or anywhere, so things like this (and comments like the one to which you are replying) are to be expected. Comments implying things like war with Russia or that everyone in Russia hates Putin are also absurd. I don't like Putin, but every other political party in Russia is bad and people over there are generally fond of him and the accomplishments of the United Russia party. | ||
Deleted User 137586
7859 Posts
March 07 2014 09:17 GMT
#4638
P.S. I was wondering what happened to the Mistral sale by France. Apparently nothing, which might explain why France has been very careful about reacting to this crisis. | ||
Sub40APM
6336 Posts
March 07 2014 09:22 GMT
#4639
On March 07 2014 18:17 Ghanburighan wrote: Here's a handy crowdsourced collection of links to articles which claim to have evidence that the occupying troops are Russian. P.S. I was wondering what happened to the Mistral sale by France. Apparently nothing, which might explain why France has been very careful about reacting to this crisis. The City doesnt want to lose its spot as the pre-eminent money laundering site for Russians and the French dont want to lose their military export contracts. Nothing new. Unless the Russians do some more provocations the next step will be the 'referendum' day when we get 80% for joining Russia, 20% for joining Russia and telling America to go fuck itself. The peaceful 'local self defense groups' will then instantly be 'integrated in the Russian army' and now deal with the Ukrainian 'occupants' on 'sovereign Russian territory' | ||
Deleted User 137586
7859 Posts
March 07 2014 09:26 GMT
#4640
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