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US Politics Mega-thread - Page 986

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Read the rules in the OP before posting, please.

In order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a re-read to refresh your memory! The vast majority of you are contributing in a healthy way, keep it up!

NOTE: When providing a source, explain why you feel it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion if it's not obvious.
Also take note that unsubstantiated tweets/posts meant only to rekindle old arguments can result in a mod action.
WhiteDog
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
France8650 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-04-10 06:52:20
April 10 2014 06:46 GMT
#19701
We should make some kind of pact for the future of this thread, like don't ever use the word incentive because everybody will know you're just a free marketist who don't know what he's talking about.
"every time WhiteDog overuses the word "seriously" in a comment I can make an observation on his fragile emotional state." MoltkeWarding
Danglars
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States12133 Posts
April 10 2014 06:54 GMT
#19702
Clearly, the free market supporters would have to extract another mighty concession from the controlled markets crowd. Maybe "inequality" or "social" followed by any number of words. All in the interests of furthering the discussion of course.
Great armies come from happy zealots, and happy zealots come from California!
TL+ Member
WhiteDog
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
France8650 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-04-10 07:06:33
April 10 2014 06:57 GMT
#19703
On April 10 2014 15:54 Danglars wrote:
Clearly, the free market supporters would have to extract another mighty concession from the controlled markets crowd. Maybe "inequality" or "social" followed by any number of words. All in the interests of furthering the discussion of course.

Because you know you can quantify inequality, I can give you various graph right now. And we can discuss around this empirical evidence.
Incentive on the other hand...


And yes, we can ban social, I hate that word that now rhyme with charity.
"every time WhiteDog overuses the word "seriously" in a comment I can make an observation on his fragile emotional state." MoltkeWarding
IgnE
Profile Joined November 2010
United States7681 Posts
April 10 2014 07:12 GMT
#19704
Social? Charity? Verity?
The unrealistic sound of these propositions is indicative, not of their utopian character, but of the strength of the forces which prevent their realization.
nunez
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
Norway4003 Posts
April 10 2014 10:28 GMT
#19705
social disparity?
conspired against by a confederacy of dunces.
oneofthem
Profile Blog Joined November 2005
Cayman Islands24199 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-04-10 13:29:08
April 10 2014 13:05 GMT
#19706
incentive is not that bad. it does exist. look at how it is used and what sort of simplifying rationalization is projected upon agents in your model.

from a philosophy perspective im of the position that human understanding of reasons is a distinct faculty of reasoning in itself. this is not to say they are entirely fictitious, but each 'perceiving' of a reason in others as well as any third person account of yourself involves invoking your own faculty of reasoning and then is projected into an agent. some sort of co-evolution mechanism of reasoning and "understanding others' reasons". thus we tend to have very natural and smooth conceptions of how society adn the world works that are made up of people with reasons in their heads, but the reality can be much more complicated.

various leftist 'visionary' projects suffer from thsi problem a great deal, where you imagine a world from the top down governed by reasons, but that kind of world only exists in imagination. of course, same applies to concepts like incentive. it's easy to conceive or be persuaded by a simplistic conception based on thsi sort of a 'rationalistic' model, but this suggestiveness is in itself a danger to us. it leads to acceptance of simplsitic models blindly. a simple motto on this issue may be, reasons are causes, but there is no guarantee of completeness of causes from one true reason based cause.

tldr is basically econ 101 'incentivezzz omg you are dumb' stuff is really bad. but you can surely consider incentives as a hugely important aspect of economic thinking


as an aside, neoclassical economics is the high fortress of rationalistic economics, built up from a series of 'what we think people do' and then mathematicized. usually this kind of 'science' would lead to catastrophically bad results. it's pretty primitive as far as scientific methodology goes. think of something like phlogiston theory or 'heat fluids' as an analogy in physics.
We have fed the heart on fantasies, the heart's grown brutal from the fare, more substance in our enmities than in our love
WhiteDog
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
France8650 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-04-10 14:06:03
April 10 2014 14:04 GMT
#19707
And ? I consider pure and perfect market as a hugely important aspect of economic thinking, but do I consider that I can apply in the real world everything that the theory tell me ?
You're talking about another matter entirely, and a pretty small matter actually (incentive by itself is POOR even from a pure theorical standpoint - like neoclassical economy by the way). Putting that aside, my problem with the word "incentive" is that using it as a justification for a practical matter is dumb, and most of time ideologically tainted.
"every time WhiteDog overuses the word "seriously" in a comment I can make an observation on his fragile emotional state." MoltkeWarding
RvB
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
Netherlands6223 Posts
April 10 2014 14:45 GMT
#19708
(Reuters) - The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell sharply last week to the lowest level in almost seven years, which could bolster views of an acceleration in job growth after a cold winter dampened hiring.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 32,000 to a seasonally adjusted 300,000 for the week ended April 5, the Labor Department said on Thursday. That was the lowest level since May 2007, before the start of the 2007-09 recession.

"It's collaborating with the other signals we have been seeing, which is the jobs market is slowly improving. Some of the drop is normalizing from this winter's depressive effect," said Ryan Sweet, a senior economist at Moody's Analytics in West Chester, Pennsylvania.

U.S. stock index futures trimmed losses after the claims data. The dollar pared losses against the yen, while U.S. Treasury debt prices gave up some gains.

Economists had forecast first-time applications for jobless benefits falling to 320,000 for the week ended April 5.

Layoffs are trending lower and hiring is regaining some momentum after being held back by unusually cold weather, snow and ice storms in December and January.

Job growth averaged about 195,000 per month in February and March, with the unemployment rate holding at near a five-year low of 6.7 percent over that period.

The four-week moving average for new claims, considered a better measure of underlying labor market conditions as it irons out week-to-week volatility, fell to 316,250 in the week ended April 5, down 4,750 from the previous week.

The claims report showed the number of people still receiving benefits after an initial week of aid fell 62,000 to 2.78 million in the week ended March 29. That was the lowest level since January 2008.

source

(Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve's drive to wean Wall Street off risky funding sources is expected to bring more financial pain to the biggest U.S. banks in the coming months, analysts warned on Wednesday.

They said bank regulators' release this week of tough new limits on debt funding is just a preview of other rules that may have even more bite.

The eight largest U.S. banks must boost their capital levels by an estimated total of $68 billion to meet new limits on debt that regulators approved on Tuesday, a move designed to reduce banks' reliance on the type of risky financing that fueled the 2007-2009 financial crisis.

Goldman Sachs (GS.N) and Morgan Stanley (MS.N) could be most affected since regulators proposed a framework that is tougher on businesses like the selling of credit derivatives to protect against corporate defaults, according to Steven Chubak, a banking analyst at Nomura Securities.

Executives at some of the biggest Wall Street banks said in interviews that they began planning for the rules when they were proposed last year, and they expect to be in full compliance before the regulations take effect in 2018.

But analysts paid special attention to comments from Federal Reserve Governor Daniel Tarullo, who said on Tuesday the tough rules should spur regulators to set more funding limits.

Those proposed reforms include a surcharge for the biggest global banks and possibly additional capital rules for banks that rely on risky, short-term funding.

Fed officials also want banks to hold much more long-term debt to make it easier for regulators to unwind failing banks in a crisis.

"I call them the four horsemen of the apocalypse," said Greg Lyons, who leads the financial institutions group at the law firm Debevoise & Plimpton, in reference to the leverage rules and the three other pending requirements.

Without insight into how tough these other rules will be, experts said it's hard to put a number on how much more capital banks will have to raise, or how banks may restructure their businesses to soften the blow.

"We've got all of these pieces but ... it's not clear we know where we're going overall, or what the world looks like when we get there," said Oliver Ireland, a partner with Morrison & Foerster in Washington.

source
Well for all the lobbying the banks do it's not paying off at the moment :D.
oneofthem
Profile Blog Joined November 2005
Cayman Islands24199 Posts
April 10 2014 15:52 GMT
#19709
whitedog i agree that incentive talk can overreach but it is still an important mechanism (because it does constitute a part of human behavior). what specific bad incentive based arguments do you have in mind?
We have fed the heart on fantasies, the heart's grown brutal from the fare, more substance in our enmities than in our love
TheFish7
Profile Blog Joined February 2012
United States2824 Posts
April 10 2014 17:20 GMT
#19710
On April 10 2014 23:45 RvB wrote:
Show nested quote +
(Reuters) - The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell sharply last week to the lowest level in almost seven years, which could bolster views of an acceleration in job growth after a cold winter dampened hiring.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 32,000 to a seasonally adjusted 300,000 for the week ended April 5, the Labor Department said on Thursday. That was the lowest level since May 2007, before the start of the 2007-09 recession.

"It's collaborating with the other signals we have been seeing, which is the jobs market is slowly improving. Some of the drop is normalizing from this winter's depressive effect," said Ryan Sweet, a senior economist at Moody's Analytics in West Chester, Pennsylvania.

U.S. stock index futures trimmed losses after the claims data. The dollar pared losses against the yen, while U.S. Treasury debt prices gave up some gains.

Economists had forecast first-time applications for jobless benefits falling to 320,000 for the week ended April 5.

Layoffs are trending lower and hiring is regaining some momentum after being held back by unusually cold weather, snow and ice storms in December and January.

Job growth averaged about 195,000 per month in February and March, with the unemployment rate holding at near a five-year low of 6.7 percent over that period.

The four-week moving average for new claims, considered a better measure of underlying labor market conditions as it irons out week-to-week volatility, fell to 316,250 in the week ended April 5, down 4,750 from the previous week.

The claims report showed the number of people still receiving benefits after an initial week of aid fell 62,000 to 2.78 million in the week ended March 29. That was the lowest level since January 2008.

source

Show nested quote +
(Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve's drive to wean Wall Street off risky funding sources is expected to bring more financial pain to the biggest U.S. banks in the coming months, analysts warned on Wednesday.

They said bank regulators' release this week of tough new limits on debt funding is just a preview of other rules that may have even more bite.

The eight largest U.S. banks must boost their capital levels by an estimated total of $68 billion to meet new limits on debt that regulators approved on Tuesday, a move designed to reduce banks' reliance on the type of risky financing that fueled the 2007-2009 financial crisis.

Goldman Sachs (GS.N) and Morgan Stanley (MS.N) could be most affected since regulators proposed a framework that is tougher on businesses like the selling of credit derivatives to protect against corporate defaults, according to Steven Chubak, a banking analyst at Nomura Securities.

Executives at some of the biggest Wall Street banks said in interviews that they began planning for the rules when they were proposed last year, and they expect to be in full compliance before the regulations take effect in 2018.

But analysts paid special attention to comments from Federal Reserve Governor Daniel Tarullo, who said on Tuesday the tough rules should spur regulators to set more funding limits.

Those proposed reforms include a surcharge for the biggest global banks and possibly additional capital rules for banks that rely on risky, short-term funding.

Fed officials also want banks to hold much more long-term debt to make it easier for regulators to unwind failing banks in a crisis.

"I call them the four horsemen of the apocalypse," said Greg Lyons, who leads the financial institutions group at the law firm Debevoise & Plimpton, in reference to the leverage rules and the three other pending requirements.

Without insight into how tough these other rules will be, experts said it's hard to put a number on how much more capital banks will have to raise, or how banks may restructure their businesses to soften the blow.

"We've got all of these pieces but ... it's not clear we know where we're going overall, or what the world looks like when we get there," said Oliver Ireland, a partner with Morrison & Foerster in Washington.

source
Well for all the lobbying the banks do it's not paying off at the moment :D.

Good!
+ Show Spoiler +
[image loading]
~ ~ <°)))><~ ~ ~
Nyxisto
Profile Joined August 2010
Germany6287 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-04-10 17:32:15
April 10 2014 17:30 GMT
#19711
On April 11 2014 00:52 oneofthem wrote:
whitedog i agree that incentive talk can overreach but it is still an important mechanism (because it does constitute a part of human behavior). what specific bad incentive based arguments do you have in mind?

If 'incentive to work' was anything but complete nonsense everyone in the so called 'welfare states' would be unemployed.The whole 'homo economicus' concept is so far off, it's ridiculous.
oneofthem
Profile Blog Joined November 2005
Cayman Islands24199 Posts
April 10 2014 18:34 GMT
#19712
it's not complete nonsense at all. if it was complete nonsense the glorious soviet union would be a paradise
We have fed the heart on fantasies, the heart's grown brutal from the fare, more substance in our enmities than in our love
GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States23255 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-04-10 19:38:56
April 10 2014 19:27 GMT
#19713
On April 11 2014 03:34 oneofthem wrote:
it's not complete nonsense at all. if it was complete nonsense the glorious soviet union would be a paradise


'Incentive' is hardly even on the radar when it comes to the perils of the Soviet Union. Outside of the eastern bloc I don't think there are many if any people advocating for another 'Soviet Union'. Using the Soviet example to dispel leftleaning ideas would be like using Rome to deride democracy.

I think it was you that had a good point about neoclassical economics. Economists talk about it like it was science, but it wouldn't even past muster in a middle school science class.

One of the first assumptions most economists make is dead wrong. Then they build most of their reasoning off of that easily disproved premise. Some of their models may closely resemble some real world situations but it's so far from science the comparison is laughable.

I've asked several economists about the 'rational' myth and the liberals admit that it's a ridiculous notion (but it's neccessary to most of the work in economics so they don't bother challenging the mythos. The conservative 'Smith' types still hold onto it like a newborn baby pretty much refusing to admit the prima facie fact that the assumption is wrong. They even undermine REAL scientific studies on human behavior in order to maintain their 'rational' myth. But perhaps that is just my experience. If there are other 'Smith' type economists that admit the 'rational' myth is ridiculous I just haven't met any.
"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
Sub40APM
Profile Joined August 2010
6336 Posts
April 10 2014 19:27 GMT
#19714
On April 11 2014 03:34 oneofthem wrote:
it's not complete nonsense at all. if it was complete nonsense the glorious soviet union would be a paradise

I think people confuse incentive to work with free market as a signaling device. Those two are different things.
farvacola
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
United States18829 Posts
April 10 2014 19:36 GMT
#19715
On April 11 2014 04:27 GreenHorizons wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 11 2014 03:34 oneofthem wrote:
it's not complete nonsense at all. if it was complete nonsense the glorious soviet union would be a paradise


One system being nonsense doesn't really have anything to do with the Soviet Union. I think it was you that had a good point about neoclassical economics. Economists talk about it like it was science, but it wouldn't even past muster in a middle school science class.

One of the first assumptions most economists make is dead wrong. Then they build most of their reasoning off of that easily disproved premise. Some of their models may closely resemble some real world situations but it's so far from science the comparison is laughable.

I've asked several economists and the liberals admit that it's a ridiculous notion. The conservative 'Smith' types still hold onto it like a newborn baby pretty much refusing to admit the prima facie fact that the assumption is wrong. They even undermine REAL scientific studies on human behavior in order to maintain their 'rational' myth.

"Conservative Smith types" is an oxymoron
"when the Dead Kennedys found out they had skinhead fans, they literally wrote a song titled 'Nazi Punks Fuck Off'"
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
April 10 2014 20:19 GMT
#19716
Less than two weeks after Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo abruptly shut down a commission he had formed to investigate political corruption in New York State, the United States attorney in Manhattan is sharply questioning the governor’s decision and is taking possession of all of the panel’s case files, according to letters sent to the commission’s members on April 3 and again on Wednesday afternoon.

The move by the United States attorney, Preet Bharara, amounted to an unusual rebuke of Mr. Cuomo, a former prosecutor himself, who swept into office four years ago promising to clean up what many have called a culture of corruption in Albany.

Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo, shown on March 20, announced the demise of his ethics commission on Saturday with little fanfare.Capitol Corruption Panel’s Demise Angers WatchdogsMARCH 31, 2014

Mr. Cuomo created the panel, the Commission to Investigate Public Corruption, in July, with great fanfare and a broad mandate to restore public trust in government. But watchdog groups raised concerns about the panel’s credibility after reports about interference by the governor’s office, which leaned on the commission to limit the scope of its investigations, influence which subpoenas it would issue, and in some cases, stop the commission from issuing subpoenas to groups with ties to Mr. Cuomo.

On March 29, Mr. Cuomo announced that as part of budget negotiations between his office and the Legislature, the panel, more commonly known as the Moreland Commission, was being disbanded.


Source
"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States23255 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-04-10 21:38:29
April 10 2014 20:28 GMT
#19717
On April 11 2014 05:19 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
Show nested quote +
Less than two weeks after Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo abruptly shut down a commission he had formed to investigate political corruption in New York State, the United States attorney in Manhattan is sharply questioning the governor’s decision and is taking possession of all of the panel’s case files, according to letters sent to the commission’s members on April 3 and again on Wednesday afternoon.

The move by the United States attorney, Preet Bharara, amounted to an unusual rebuke of Mr. Cuomo, a former prosecutor himself, who swept into office four years ago promising to clean up what many have called a culture of corruption in Albany.

Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo, shown on March 20, announced the demise of his ethics commission on Saturday with little fanfare.Capitol Corruption Panel’s Demise Angers WatchdogsMARCH 31, 2014

Mr. Cuomo created the panel, the Commission to Investigate Public Corruption, in July, with great fanfare and a broad mandate to restore public trust in government. But watchdog groups raised concerns about the panel’s credibility after reports about interference by the governor’s office, which leaned on the commission to limit the scope of its investigations, influence which subpoenas it would issue, and in some cases, stop the commission from issuing subpoenas to groups with ties to Mr. Cuomo.

On March 29, Mr. Cuomo announced that as part of budget negotiations between his office and the Legislature, the panel, more commonly known as the Moreland Commission, was being disbanded.


Source



Sounds like he found out the wrong thing about the wrong person (who knew something about him). It's not really a surprise when a teenager with a pocket full of drugs gets more prison time than anyone at HSBC who was laundering the drug lords cash.

We could get more financial criminals in prison with 2 weeks of stop and frisk on Wall street than all of the federal trials combined...

+ Show Spoiler +
The corruption level is over 9000!!!!
Guess it could go either way though depending on who looks like they have the upper hand in budget negotiations.
"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
April 11 2014 00:22 GMT
#19718
Kathleen Sebelius is resigning as secretary of Health and Human Services, Bloomberg News and The New York Times reported Thursday. Two senior administration officials confirmed the news to The Huffington Post.

Sebelius is expected to announce her resignation on Friday. According to the Times, President Barack Obama accepted her resignation earlier this week. Sebelius is resigning after five years of service in Obama's cabinet.

Obama will nominate Sylvia Mathews Burwell to replace Sebelius on Friday morning, the senior administration officials said. Burwell currently serves as director of the Office of Management and Budget.

The announcement comes just over a week after the first open enrollment period for Obama's signature health care law came to a close. Though the enrollment period faced a tumultuous rollout, more than 7 million Americans enrolled in health care coverage through the exchanges.


Source
"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
Nyxisto
Profile Joined August 2010
Germany6287 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-04-11 01:28:41
April 11 2014 00:28 GMT
#19719
On April 11 2014 03:34 oneofthem wrote:
it's not complete nonsense at all. if it was complete nonsense the glorious soviet union would be a paradise

Because the only difference between the Soviet Union and the West was the belief in a specific economic concept that even most Western countries have kind of abolished?
JonnyBNoHo
Profile Joined July 2011
United States6277 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-04-11 01:20:16
April 11 2014 01:04 GMT
#19720
On April 11 2014 04:27 GreenHorizons wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 11 2014 03:34 oneofthem wrote:
it's not complete nonsense at all. if it was complete nonsense the glorious soviet union would be a paradise


'Incentive' is hardly even on the radar when it comes to the perils of the Soviet Union. Outside of the eastern bloc I don't think there are many if any people advocating for another 'Soviet Union'. Using the Soviet example to dispel leftleaning ideas would be like using Rome to deride democracy.

I think it was you that had a good point about neoclassical economics. Economists talk about it like it was science, but it wouldn't even past muster in a middle school science class.

One of the first assumptions most economists make is dead wrong. Then they build most of their reasoning off of that easily disproved premise. Some of their models may closely resemble some real world situations but it's so far from science the comparison is laughable.

I've asked several economists about the 'rational' myth and the liberals admit that it's a ridiculous notion (but it's neccessary to most of the work in economics so they don't bother challenging the mythos. The conservative 'Smith' types still hold onto it like a newborn baby pretty much refusing to admit the prima facie fact that the assumption is wrong. They even undermine REAL scientific studies on human behavior in order to maintain their 'rational' myth. But perhaps that is just my experience. If there are other 'Smith' type economists that admit the 'rational' myth is ridiculous I just haven't met any.

Rationality isn't a myth, it just doesn't hold true always. There's a difference.

Edit: not really disagreeing with you, just reeling in your statement a bit.
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