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US Politics Mega-thread - Page 9472

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Read the rules in the OP before posting, please.

In order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a re-read to refresh your memory! The vast majority of you are contributing in a healthy way, keep it up!

NOTE: When providing a source, explain why you feel it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion if it's not obvious.
Also take note that unsubstantiated tweets/posts meant only to rekindle old arguments can result in a mod action.
Nevuk
Profile Blog Joined March 2009
United States16280 Posts
December 09 2017 00:45 GMT
#189421
An expert has concluded that Roy Moore inscribed a message in the yearbook of a woman who says he sexually assaulted her when she was 16, according to the accuser's lawyer.

Moore for weeks has denied that the 1977 message was his handwriting and said he doesn't remember the woman, Beverly Young Nelson. But in a news conference Friday in Atlanta, attorney Gloria Allred said handwriting expert Arthur T. Anthony compared the yearbook signature to others by Moore in the years since and determined he wrote the decades-old entry.

“To a sweeter, more beautiful girl I could not say Merry Christmas. Christmas 1977. Love, Roy Moore, D.A.” reads the yearbook.

Below it is written a date, "12-22-1977," and "Olde Hickory House," the restaurant where Young worked. Moore supporters used discrepancies in the handwriting between those notes and the message to bring the entry into question, but Young said she wrote the notes herself to remember when and where a man she respected wrote the message.Young said she has been subjected to threats and is living "behind triple-locked doors" since going public with her accusation last month.

"Since I spoke about my experience with Roy Moore when I was only 16 years old, I have been the target of threats and lies," she said. "A talk radio host said that I should be put in the town square and stoned and he said he wanted to be the first to throw the largest stone at me. Someone even sent me a photo of a casket, which I took as a threat."

Moore has frequently and loudly denied the accusations from Young and other women, and while his poll numbers bounced back from an initial hit, the stories are making Tuesday's election much closer than expected for the conservative Republican.
www.wcvb.com


She did also offer to let the senate confirm it, but wants to avoid handing it over to Moore's lawyers.
Doodsmack
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States7224 Posts
December 09 2017 00:53 GMT
#189422
This coming from Trump's own team:

Trump brought forth an impactful new era Mideast policy with the announcement, and the commander in chief's remarks immediately sparked a wave of backlash throughout the Mideast and Europe among Muslim and secular world leaders alike. This backlash came as some White House advisers are reportedly questioning the president's understanding of what a new position on Jerusalem means in global context.

According to a new Washington Post report, White House advisers and Trump insiders believe the decision dismissed the pressing need for an Israel-Palestine peace deal and was instead rooted in the president's desire to please donors and make good on campaign promises.

...

"It’s insane. We’re all resistant,” another Trump confidant reportedly told the Post. "He doesn’t realize what all he could trigger by doing this."

The new report also reveals that several advisers believe Trump appeared focused on "seeming pro-Israel," and "making a deal" as opposed to weighing the overall pros and cons of the decision.


www.yahoo.com

We of course already could assume that Trump is not aware of the pros and cons of this decision, but it is important to keep in mind his lack of knowledge. It is not always mitigated by the people around him.
Gahlo
Profile Joined February 2010
United States35142 Posts
December 09 2017 01:00 GMT
#189423
Because I haven't seen it around, in the proposed tax bill non-tangible bonuses, for example: a gift card, won't be allowed to be given to employees.
TheTenthDoc
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States9561 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-12-09 01:02:32
December 09 2017 01:00 GMT
#189424
On December 09 2017 09:45 Nevuk wrote:
Show nested quote +
An expert has concluded that Roy Moore inscribed a message in the yearbook of a woman who says he sexually assaulted her when she was 16, according to the accuser's lawyer.

Moore for weeks has denied that the 1977 message was his handwriting and said he doesn't remember the woman, Beverly Young Nelson. But in a news conference Friday in Atlanta, attorney Gloria Allred said handwriting expert Arthur T. Anthony compared the yearbook signature to others by Moore in the years since and determined he wrote the decades-old entry.

“To a sweeter, more beautiful girl I could not say Merry Christmas. Christmas 1977. Love, Roy Moore, D.A.” reads the yearbook.

Below it is written a date, "12-22-1977," and "Olde Hickory House," the restaurant where Young worked. Moore supporters used discrepancies in the handwriting between those notes and the message to bring the entry into question, but Young said she wrote the notes herself to remember when and where a man she respected wrote the message.Young said she has been subjected to threats and is living "behind triple-locked doors" since going public with her accusation last month.

"Since I spoke about my experience with Roy Moore when I was only 16 years old, I have been the target of threats and lies," she said. "A talk radio host said that I should be put in the town square and stoned and he said he wanted to be the first to throw the largest stone at me. Someone even sent me a photo of a casket, which I took as a threat."

Moore has frequently and loudly denied the accusations from Young and other women, and while his poll numbers bounced back from an initial hit, the stories are making Tuesday's election much closer than expected for the conservative Republican.
www.wcvb.com


She did also offer to let the senate confirm it, but wants to avoid handing it over to Moore's lawyers.


Handwriting analysis is for the most part gibberish from what I understand. But anything to get this back into folk's minds before the Tuesday election is fine with me.
Nevuk
Profile Blog Joined March 2009
United States16280 Posts
December 09 2017 01:33 GMT
#189425
Former Fox News anchor Juliet Huddy said President Donald Trump tried to kiss her in an elevator around the time he married First Lady Melania.

Huddy, who allegedly received a settlement after she made a complaint against disgraced anchor Bill O’Reilly, described how the mogul leaned in to kiss her after he took her to lunch at Trump Tower in 2005.

The TV newswoman, who now hosts a radio show on WABC Radio, revealed on “Mornin!!! with Bill Schulz” on compoundmedia.com, that she had rebuffed the now-president in the Trump Tower elevator. And Trump later appeared on her Fox News chat show, and joked to the audience, “I hit on her but she blew me off.”

Huddy said of Trump, “He took me for lunch at Trump Tower, just us two. He said goodbye to me in an elevator while his security guy was there, rather than kiss me on the cheek he leaned in to kiss me on the lips. I wasn’t offended, I was kind of like, ‘Oh my god’.” She said she want to meet a friend and Trump then invited them both back to see “The Apprentice” set, “And everything was copacetic after that.”

But she added, “I was surprised that he went for the lips. But I didn’t feel threatened … he took me out to lunch to talk about maybe me doing something with ‘The Apprentice.’ He used to watch ‘Fox & Friends,’ the show I was hosting on the weekend. Whatever, everything was fine. It was a weird moment. He never tried anything after that, and I was never alone with him.”

But she said Trump later joked about his clumsy pass at her when appearing on her Fox News morning talk show a few years later. Huddy explained, “Trump was a guest and he came on stage, He said, to the audience and producers, not on camera, ‘I tried hitting on her but she blew me off.’ He was laughing. At the time I was not offended by it, I thought he was a single man and leaned in for a kiss… maybe he thought, ‘She’s been out to lunch with me and maybe she is interested.’


“Now I have matured I think I would say, ‘Woah, no’, but at the time I was younger and I was a little shocked. I thought maybe he didn’t mean to do it, but I was kind of making excuses. The elevator incident and the lunch was 2005 or 2006,” she added. Trump married Melania in January 2005

Huddy made the comment after discussing Trump’s slurs, said by the White House to be caused by dry mouth. When asked by fellow guest, writer Samantha Judge, “Do you remember his lips being dry?” Huddy responded, “I don’t remember. No.'”

She continued talking about Trump’s reaction to the allegations against Bill O’Reilly, “I’ve seen him [Trump] many times over the years and he’s always been nice….When all the stuff came out about Bill O’Reilly, Donald Trump was one of the people who said, ‘I don’t believe this happened and I don’t believe he did it’… I was actually very disappointed in Trump, I thought, ‘You know what, f–k you.’ He [Trump] has met me a bunch of times and he knows I am not [a liar]”

pagesix.com
Sadist
Profile Blog Joined October 2002
United States7225 Posts
December 09 2017 01:37 GMT
#189426
On December 09 2017 08:53 Plansix wrote:


Newt is a peice of shit. And just think, he jump started this current era of "family values" republicans back in 1995.



Wheres a debillitating stroke when you need one?

Newt is scum.
How do you go from where you are to where you want to be? I think you have to have an enthusiasm for life. You have to have a dream, a goal and you have to be willing to work for it. Jim Valvano
brian
Profile Blog Joined August 2004
United States9617 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-12-09 03:32:00
December 09 2017 02:04 GMT
#189427
On December 09 2017 09:21 mozoku wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 09 2017 09:14 brian wrote:
On December 09 2017 09:12 mozoku wrote:
On December 09 2017 08:28 brian wrote:
if you ask any statistician for any significant results and he concludes an affirmative answer, it is nonsense. the famous line of all statistics papers is such that they will never definitively state something is significant and instead say ‘well it looks funny but there’s no conclusive evidence.’

so this rings rather hollow.

Excludos is correct, but I want to add that you're fighting a massively uphill battle if you want to argue the biggest problem with statistics in 2017 is too much caution about results.

i’d make no such claim. but if your argument rests on ‘ask any statistician and you’ll hear that they can make no such conclusion’ than you have a bad argument.

See my edit. I fundamentally disagree with you here. The statistician, if they're doing their job appropriately, won't be talking in terms of significance but in terms of uncertainty.

disagree away but i could use your argument against literally anything and it would mean as much.

i did see your edit, and had responded to it as well. the only thing i’ll give you is the layman not understanding the applicable distribution(whatever it might be. i assume the model of extreme values doesn’t quite cut it, but i digress) but the layman isn’t the statistician, and the result doesn’t change regardless.

this is a favorite of XD, where you come back saying something akin to ‘i haven’t said anything incorrect,’ which is true. but it’s because you really haven’t said anything.

source: finite erdös number, in statistics.
Doodsmack
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States7224 Posts
December 09 2017 02:23 GMT
#189428
Large crowds of worshippers across the Muslim world staged anti-U.S. marches Friday, some stomping on posters of Donald Trump or burning American flags in the largest outpouring of anger yet at the U.S. president's recognition of bitterly contested Jerusalem as Israel's capital.

In the holy city itself, prayers at Islam's third-holiest site dispersed largely without incident, but Palestinians clashed with Israeli troops in several dozen West Bank hotspots and on the border with the Gaza Strip.

Israeli warplanes struck Hamas military targets in the Gaza Strip Friday in response to a rocket fired from the zone that Israel's military said was intercepted by its Iron Dome missile-defense system.

The Palestinian health ministry said at least 15 people were injured in Friday's air strikes.

Earlier, a 30-year-old Gaza man was killed by Israeli gunfire, the first death of a protester since Trump's dramatic midweek announcement. Two Palestinians were seriously wounded, health officials said.


www.yahoo.com
Plansix
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States60190 Posts
December 09 2017 02:36 GMT
#189429
Nice. Trumps move was met with Israel bombing Gaza. All becaus protesters threw in effect fire bombs and rolled flaming tires a protestors.

America first.
I have the Honor to be your Obedient Servant, P.6
TL+ Member
Nevuk
Profile Blog Joined March 2009
United States16280 Posts
December 09 2017 03:01 GMT
#189430
I don't think they're going to be able to reconcile the house and senate versions of the tax bill. They're very different and both houses barely passed it.
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
December 09 2017 03:38 GMT
#189431
Evidence #1,081...

"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
Danglars
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States12133 Posts
December 09 2017 03:41 GMT
#189432
On December 09 2017 09:03 Gahlo wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 09 2017 09:00 Danglars wrote:
On December 09 2017 07:49 MyTHicaL wrote:
On December 09 2017 06:37 Danglars wrote:


Yep but no one else in the international community believes that. The three most popular relligions all hold claim to that area. Doing this is not fulfilling campaign promesses, it is however, a very facilitating reason to unite all arab countries against the US. GL if the Saudis, Turks, Persians ever get together...

If we can agree on four presidents from current day and past all agreeing publicly that Jerusalem is the capital of Israel, then we're getting somewhere.

Secondly, I don't see any reason to deny the narrow case: Trump promised to move the US embassy to Jerusalem, Trump did start the process of moving the US embassy to Jerusalem. I think it's an important point in treating all presidents fairly and not in a partisan manner to admit the basic fact.

Trump isn't the only Republican in that group. Trying to hide behind other people being partisan doesn't work here.

You know what's funny? I said a very narrow case that's absolutely applicable here, and all you can do is rattle off the political affiliations represented in this video. Listen: When you're done naming off Republicans and Democrats when I didn't mention any political sides, maybe you can read it again and give credit where credit is due. Otherwise, you're just another person that can't see past the word Trump.

On December 09 2017 09:07 zlefin wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 09 2017 09:00 Danglars wrote:
On December 09 2017 07:49 MyTHicaL wrote:
On December 09 2017 06:37 Danglars wrote:
https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/939006911629869056


Yep but no one else in the international community believes that. The three most popular relligions all hold claim to that area. Doing this is not fulfilling campaign promesses, it is however, a very facilitating reason to unite all arab countries against the US. GL if the Saudis, Turks, Persians ever get together...

If we can agree on four presidents from current day and past all agreeing publicly that Jerusalem is the capital of Israel, then we're getting somewhere.

Secondly, I don't see any reason to deny the narrow case: Trump promised to move the US embassy to Jerusalem, Trump did start the process of moving the US embassy to Jerusalem. I think it's an important point in treating all presidents fairly and not in a partisan manner to admit the basic fact.

I can agree it's fulfilling a campaign promise. i'ts of course still a dumb promise (like most of his were), and a dumb move.

Yes, thank you. Some days I think everybody's lost their damn mind.
Great armies come from happy zealots, and happy zealots come from California!
TL+ Member
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United Kingdom13775 Posts
December 09 2017 03:42 GMT
#189433
Ain't going to declare Jerusalem the capital of Israel without breaking a few eggs. Israel rightly responding to terrorism with a minor show of force is a reasonable consequence of it all.
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
ShoCkeyy
Profile Blog Joined July 2008
7815 Posts
December 09 2017 03:47 GMT
#189434
On December 09 2017 12:38 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
Evidence #1,081...

https://twitter.com/Bencjacobs/status/939290842111664128


I wonder when some one will say they're "Jesus", and perform "miracles".
Life?
Karis Vas Ryaar
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
United States4396 Posts
December 09 2017 03:51 GMT
#189435



"I'm not agreeing with a lot of Virus's decisions but they are working" Tasteless. Ipl4 Losers Bracket Virus 2-1 Maru
Nevuk
Profile Blog Joined March 2009
United States16280 Posts
December 09 2017 04:00 GMT
#189436
Paul Manafort left track changes on when writing that op ed he claimed he didn't touch
mozoku
Profile Joined September 2012
United States708 Posts
December 09 2017 04:28 GMT
#189437
On December 09 2017 11:04 brian wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 09 2017 09:21 mozoku wrote:
On December 09 2017 09:14 brian wrote:
On December 09 2017 09:12 mozoku wrote:
On December 09 2017 08:28 brian wrote:
if you ask any statistician for any significant results and he concludes an affirmative answer, it is nonsense. the famous line of all statistics papers is such that they will never definitively state something is significant and instead say ‘well it looks funny but there’s no conclusive evidence.’

so this rings rather hollow.

Excludos is correct, but I want to add that you're fighting a massively uphill battle if you want to argue the biggest problem with statistics in 2017 is too much caution about results.

i’d make no such claim. but if your argument rests on ‘ask any statistician and you’ll hear that they can make no such conclusion’ than you have a bad argument.

See my edit. I fundamentally disagree with you here. The statistician, if they're doing their job appropriately, won't be talking in terms of significance but in terms of uncertainty.

disagree away but i could use your argument against literally anything and it would mean as much.

i did see your edit, and had responded to it as well. the only thing i’ll give you is the layman not understanding the applicable distribution(whatever it might be. i assume the model of extreme values doesn’t quite cut it, but i digress) but the layman isn’t the statistician, and the result doesn’t change regardless.

There is no "applicable distribution" that a statistician pulls out his ass that magically becomes useful. If you don't have any data (as in this case), you don't have a statistical problem. You're in the realm of making up scenarios of unverifiable assumptions, which isn't statistics in any meaningful sense of the word.

In order to make any sense of the problem, you need to know (or estimate) the distribution of costs (however you define it) given America ignoring Islamic terrorism (i.e. so you can weigh it against the costs that occurred in the real world). We have one version of history, and the War on Terror happened in it. Good luck figuring that one out.

Your argument is essentially "I don't have a fucking idea how it can be done, but statisticians say stuff is uncertain a lot so when this one says it here well I don't trust him." That's hardly a convincing one brother. The fact that something is often said is independent of the fact whether it's true in this case. You're trying to make a leap from "statisticians are cautious about conclusions" to "there's no data and the statistician tells you there's no statistics to even do, but statisticians never give me straight answers anyway so I'm justified in ignoring both common sense and the statistician. Except I don't have the common sense on this topic to even know whether the problem is remotely possible."

I get the feeling you guys are making nonsensical appeals to Bayesian statistics without having any clue how Bayesian statistics works.

I'll acknowledge my arguments have been sort of a mess, but it's sort of hard to argue a negative when the opposition side has no constructive argument of its own.
Aquanim
Profile Joined November 2012
Australia2849 Posts
December 09 2017 04:32 GMT
#189438
On December 09 2017 13:28 mozoku wrote:...
In order to make any sense of the problem, you need to know (or estimate) the distribution of costs (however you define it) given America ignoring Islamic terrorism (i.e. so you can weigh it against the costs that occurred in the real world). We have one version of history, and the War on Terror happened in it. Good luck figuring that one out.
...

I'm not going to express an opinion on the rest of this argument, but I think you've drawn a false dichotomy here between "America ignoring Islamic terrorism" and "the War on Terror that actually happened". I think less extreme options existed.
Liquid`Jinro
Profile Blog Joined September 2002
Sweden33719 Posts
December 09 2017 04:40 GMT
#189439
On December 09 2017 06:00 Danglars wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 09 2017 05:39 Nevuk wrote:
Goddamn



More shameful mistakes.

I'm with everybody that there might be something underneath it all. I want investigations to expose or clear people of wrongdoing.

What media outlets have been doing is provide fodder for a #FakeNews narrative by shoddy confirmation and rush-to-press bias. More careful attention to detail is clearly warranted, particularly when it rests on who knew what when. Suspicious timing is going to be viewed with far less credibility from here on out.

Just gotta consider ourselves lucky the Project Veritas buffoons went for the Post and not CNN.
Moderatortell the guy that interplanatar interaction is pivotal to terrans variety of optionitudals in the pre-midgame preperatories as well as the protosstinal deterriggation of elite zergling strikes - Stimey n | Formerly FrozenArbiter
brian
Profile Blog Joined August 2004
United States9617 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-12-09 04:47:04
December 09 2017 04:41 GMT
#189440
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