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US Politics Mega-thread - Page 9471

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Read the rules in the OP before posting, please.

In order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a re-read to refresh your memory! The vast majority of you are contributing in a healthy way, keep it up!

NOTE: When providing a source, explain why you feel it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion if it's not obvious.
Also take note that unsubstantiated tweets/posts meant only to rekindle old arguments can result in a mod action.
Jockmcplop
Profile Blog Joined February 2012
United Kingdom9632 Posts
December 08 2017 22:50 GMT
#189401
On December 09 2017 07:47 LegalLord wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 09 2017 07:33 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:

If there is any significance to this it is lost upon me. He spent his time under house arrest... writing!


They're trying to show that he violated a judge's order preventing him from trying his case in public.
RIP Meatloaf <3
GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States23211 Posts
December 08 2017 22:51 GMT
#189402
Not all shitty police end up killing people, some just fuck up over and over injuring and terrifying innocent people



a K-9 officer in 2012. He received 15 commendations during that time and was the subject of 12 complaints, of which six cases resulted in discipline.

The lawsuit says Schmidt’s dog bit another innocent person in August 2016, and “he received supervisory counseling on ‘leash handling and K-9 control at that time,’ ” according to the lawsuit.

In Schmidt’s one-day suspension in October in the Collins case, the Axtell wrote to the officer that he had allowed the dog “to go around a blind corner which you had neither visually checked nor announced a canine presence.”

“Your actions and failure to adequately control your canine partner will not be tolerated,” Axtell wrote to Schmidt. “Failure to follow department policy and training standards provided by the canine unit will result in further discipline, up to and including termination.”

Schmidt received two reprimands for preventable squad crashes in 1999, and a reprimand for not waiting with a vehicle that needed to be towed in 2002. He was issued a two-day suspension in 2006 after being in a crash while he was off duty — not in a squad — and pleading guilty to DUI.

Before the Collins case, Schmidt’s last discipline was in 2006 — it was a written reprimand after a complaint was lodged that police employees were drinking in a police station, and Schmidt admitted to consuming alcohol at least one time on city property.


Source
"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
KwarK
Profile Blog Joined July 2006
United States42631 Posts
December 08 2017 22:56 GMT
#189403
I love dogs but that one needs to be euthanized.

It's sad because doing that was the result of the training it was given, but that's how it goes. It's a defective piece of equipment and needs to be decommissioned.

Obviously throw dollars at the woman too.
ModeratorThe angels have the phone box
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United Kingdom13775 Posts
December 08 2017 23:03 GMT
#189404
On December 09 2017 07:50 Jockmcplop wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 09 2017 07:47 LegalLord wrote:
On December 09 2017 07:33 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
https://twitter.com/AP/status/939259689740718080

If there is any significance to this it is lost upon me. He spent his time under house arrest... writing!


They're trying to show that he violated a judge's order preventing him from trying his case in public.

Ah. Makes sense.
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
CorsairHero
Profile Joined December 2008
Canada9491 Posts
December 08 2017 23:08 GMT
#189405
In other news, the airlines need more help from the government.
The Trump administration has scrapped an Obama-era proposal requiring airlines and ticket agencies to disclose baggage fees as soon as passengers start the process of buying a ticket.

The Department of Transportation (DOT) posted a notice on the Federal Register this week that it is withdrawing the proposed rule, along with another plan to force air carriers to disclose how much revenue they make from charging other ancillary fees.

The administration, which has made easing regulatory burdens for businesses a top priority, said the rules would have “limited public benefit.”

Airlines are already required to disclose information about optional service fees on their websites. But consumer groups say it’s still difficult for passengers to compare airfare ticket prices, fees and associated rules, and have pushed for more transparency at the start of the process.

And while airlines are required to disclose to federal regulators how much money they make from baggage fees, they are not required to report how much they charge for “optional” services, such as carry-on bags, seat selection and priority boarding, which have grown in recent years.

The DOT’s effort to kill the pair of Obama-era proposals drew ire from Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.), who has been one of the leading voices in Congress pushing for airline consumer protections

“Unbelievable. Pulling the plug on rules that would ensure airlines are open and honest about bag fees and other charges is about as anti-consumer as it gets,” Blumenthal tweeted. “The Trump Admin’s reckless reversal is a gift for the airlines’ bottom line — and a slap in the face for travelers who deserve clarity when buying a ticket."

http://thehill.com/policy/transportation/363956-trump-admin-scraps-obama-era-proposal-requiring-airlines-to-disclose
© Current year.
Toadesstern
Profile Blog Joined October 2008
Germany16350 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-12-08 23:09:21
December 08 2017 23:08 GMT
#189406
On December 09 2017 07:56 KwarK wrote:
I love dogs but that one needs to be euthanized.

It's sad because doing that was the result of the training it was given, but that's how it goes. It's a defective piece of equipment and needs to be decommissioned.

Obviously throw dollars at the woman too.

yeah... I have a dog myself and I love him but watching that really left me with no other thought about it either...
All the more heartbreaking because it really isn't the dogs fault but if that's what he's like I don't think you can "retire" him and give him into some kind of care outside of the policeforce either to get him away from whoever turned him into that.
Those are still trained police officers who can't stop their dog from going around biting random people without letting go for a good while, with teeth in her arm.
<Elem> >toad in charge of judging lewdness <Elem> how bad can it be <Elem> also wew, that is actually p lewd.
buhhy
Profile Joined October 2009
United States1113 Posts
December 08 2017 23:09 GMT
#189407
On December 09 2017 07:51 GreenHorizons wrote:
Not all shitty police end up killing people, some just fuck up over and over injuring and terrifying innocent people

https://twitter.com/pdxlawgrrrl/status/939229911469899776

Show nested quote +
a K-9 officer in 2012. He received 15 commendations during that time and was the subject of 12 complaints, of which six cases resulted in discipline.

The lawsuit says Schmidt’s dog bit another innocent person in August 2016, and “he received supervisory counseling on ‘leash handling and K-9 control at that time,’ ” according to the lawsuit.

In Schmidt’s one-day suspension in October in the Collins case, the Axtell wrote to the officer that he had allowed the dog “to go around a blind corner which you had neither visually checked nor announced a canine presence.”

“Your actions and failure to adequately control your canine partner will not be tolerated,” Axtell wrote to Schmidt. “Failure to follow department policy and training standards provided by the canine unit will result in further discipline, up to and including termination.”

Schmidt received two reprimands for preventable squad crashes in 1999, and a reprimand for not waiting with a vehicle that needed to be towed in 2002. He was issued a two-day suspension in 2006 after being in a crash while he was off duty — not in a squad — and pleading guilty to DUI.

Before the Collins case, Schmidt’s last discipline was in 2006 — it was a written reprimand after a complaint was lodged that police employees were drinking in a police station, and Schmidt admitted to consuming alcohol at least one time on city property.


Source


I like how he crashed in a DUI and only got a 2-day suspension.
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
December 08 2017 23:19 GMT
#189408
Whoa.

A review by The New York Times of daily mortality data from Puerto Rico’s vital statistics bureau indicates a significantly higher death toll after the hurricane than the government there has acknowledged.

The Times’s analysis found that in the 42 days after Hurricane Maria made landfall on Sept. 20 as a Category 4 storm, 1,052 more people than usual died across the island. The analysis compared the number of deaths for each day in 2017 with the average of the number of deaths for the same days in 2015 and 2016.

Officially, just 62 people died as a result of the storm that ravaged the island with nearly 150-mile-an-hour winds, cutting off power to 3.4 million Puerto Ricans. The last four fatalities were added to the death toll on Dec. 2.

“Before the hurricane, I had an average of 82 deaths daily. That changes from Sept. 20 to 30th. Now I have an average of 118 deaths daily,” Wanda Llovet, the director of the Demographic Registry in Puerto Rico, said in a mid-November interview. Since then, she said on Thursday, both figures have increased by one.

Data for October are not yet complete, and the number of deaths recorded in that month is expected to rise. Record-keeping has been delayed because Puerto Rico’s power grid is operating at less than 70 percent of its capacity and swaths of the island still do not have power.

The deadliest day was Sept. 25, the day the governor of Puerto Rico, Ricardo A. Rosselló, warned that a looming humanitarian crisis could prompt a mass exodus from the island.

President Trump responded that night by taking to Twitter to say the island had to deal with its massive debt: “Food, water and medical are top priorities - and doing well. #FEMA.”

It was over 90 degrees, and power was out on most of the island, even in most hospitals. Bedridden people were having trouble getting medical treatment, and dialysis clinics were operating with generators and limiting treatment hours. People on respirators lacked electricity to power the machines.

On that day, 135 people died in Puerto Rico. By comparison, 75 people died on that day in 2016 and 60 died in 2015.

One local mayor went to the Federal Emergency Management Agency command post that day and shouted for help. Statistics show his city, Manatí, had among the highest mortality rates in September.

With communications down throughout the island and bodies piling up in hospital morgues, the government was still clinging to its early death count estimate of 16.

On Sept. 29, Héctor M. Pesquera, Puerto Rico’s public safety secretary, said in an interview that the death count would not swell by much.

“Will it go up? I am pretty sure it will go up,” he said. “It won’t double or triple. It’s not like an earthquake where you have a building and you don’t know whether there were 20 in the building or 300 in the building until you get all the rubble out.”

The day he said that, 127 people died, 57 more than the year before.

On Oct. 3, nearly two weeks after the storm, Mr. Trump visited the island and praised the low official death toll. He referred to the 1,833 deaths in 2005 during Hurricane Katrina as a “real catastrophe.”

“Sixteen people certified,” Mr. Trump said. “Sixteen people versus in the thousands. You can be very proud of all of your people and all of our people working together.”

By that visit, an additional 556 people had died in Puerto Rico compared with the same period over the two prior years.

The Times estimates that in the three weeks after the storm, the toll was 739 deaths. If all those additional deaths were to be counted as related to the hurricane, it would make Maria the sixth deadliest hurricane since 1851.

The method used to count official storm deaths varies by state and locality. In some parts of the United States, medical examiners include only direct deaths, such as those caused by drowning in floodwaters. In Puerto Rico, however, Mr. Pesquera said, the medical examiner includes deaths caused indirectly by storms, such as suicides. That is why the gap between the official death toll and the hundreds of additional deaths is so striking.

A study, which has not been peer-reviewed, by a Pennsylvania State University professor and an independent researcher estimated that the death toll could be 10 times higher than the government’s official count.

The Center for Investigative Journalism published its own estimate on Thursday, finding that nearly 1,000 more people than usual died in the months of September and October.

Records from Puerto Rico’s government show that some of the leading causes of death in September were diabetes and Alzheimer's disease, although the causes of death are still pending for 313 of the September deaths. The number of diabetes deaths was 24 percent higher than it was last year — and 39 percent higher than it was in 2015.

But the highest surge was in deaths from sepsis — a complication of severe infection — which jumped 50 percent over last year. That change is notable and could be explained by delayed medical treatment or poor conditions in homes and hospitals.

For weeks, Puerto Rico’s Department of Public Safety insisted that the surge was coincidental: Government officials believed hundreds of additional people had died of natural causes. But the news media continued to investigate — CNN surveyed half the island’s funeral homes to come up with an additional 499 deaths the funeral directors believed were related to the storm.

Under pressure, the government called for morticians and family members to come forward with more information, and it says its forensic science office is reviewing cases.

As more instances have come to light of deaths because of power failures at local hospitals, or oxygen tanks that ran out, the government has said that it is willing to revise the death count upward.

“What we said is, ‘Give us the information,’ ” the governor, Mr. Rosselló, told The Times.

Robert Anderson, chief of the mortality statistics branch of the National Center for Health Statistics, said Puerto Rico’s spike in deaths is statistically significant and unlikely to be the result of an unlucky fluke. Not even a bad flu season would make the mortality rate increase that much, he said.

“I think there’s fairly compelling evidence that that increase is probably due to the hurricane,” Mr. Anderson said. “That’s a lot.”

He said getting the number right was important.

“From the standpoint of prevention and preparedness, I think understanding the circumstances behind the deaths that occur is extremely important,” Mr. Anderson said. “If we have a lack of information, we can’t adequately prepare for the next disaster. We can’t put measures in place to prevent deaths occurring in the future.”


Source
"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States23211 Posts
December 08 2017 23:20 GMT
#189409
On December 09 2017 08:09 buhhy wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 09 2017 07:51 GreenHorizons wrote:
Not all shitty police end up killing people, some just fuck up over and over injuring and terrifying innocent people

https://twitter.com/pdxlawgrrrl/status/939229911469899776

a K-9 officer in 2012. He received 15 commendations during that time and was the subject of 12 complaints, of which six cases resulted in discipline.

The lawsuit says Schmidt’s dog bit another innocent person in August 2016, and “he received supervisory counseling on ‘leash handling and K-9 control at that time,’ ” according to the lawsuit.

In Schmidt’s one-day suspension in October in the Collins case, the Axtell wrote to the officer that he had allowed the dog “to go around a blind corner which you had neither visually checked nor announced a canine presence.”

“Your actions and failure to adequately control your canine partner will not be tolerated,” Axtell wrote to Schmidt. “Failure to follow department policy and training standards provided by the canine unit will result in further discipline, up to and including termination.”

Schmidt received two reprimands for preventable squad crashes in 1999, and a reprimand for not waiting with a vehicle that needed to be towed in 2002. He was issued a two-day suspension in 2006 after being in a crash while he was off duty — not in a squad — and pleading guilty to DUI.

Before the Collins case, Schmidt’s last discipline was in 2006 — it was a written reprimand after a complaint was lodged that police employees were drinking in a police station, and Schmidt admitted to consuming alcohol at least one time on city property.


Source


I like how he crashed in a DUI and only got a 2-day suspension.


That was after he admitted to getting drunk at the station (on a different occasion).

Love dogs too, and they didn't even give the dogs "off" command, but police have shot other people's dogs for far, far, far less.
"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
farvacola
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
United States18825 Posts
December 08 2017 23:20 GMT
#189410
Figuring out mortality rates in places hit by disaster can be quite tricky, particularly when we're talking an entire island.
"when the Dead Kennedys found out they had skinhead fans, they literally wrote a song titled 'Nazi Punks Fuck Off'"
brian
Profile Blog Joined August 2004
United States9617 Posts
December 08 2017 23:28 GMT
#189411
On December 09 2017 06:41 mozoku wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 09 2017 06:35 KwarK wrote:
On December 09 2017 06:20 mozoku wrote:
On December 09 2017 05:39 zlefin wrote:
On December 09 2017 05:31 mozoku wrote:
On December 09 2017 05:21 zlefin wrote:
On December 09 2017 05:15 mozoku wrote:
On December 09 2017 05:03 KwarK wrote:
On December 09 2017 05:01 mozoku wrote:
On December 09 2017 04:34 IgnE wrote:
[quote]

its in any case a surprising conclusion from a statistics expert, trained to tease systematic trends out of large datasets. "it's basically a rounding error (lets not compare it to other countries' rounding errors)"

if i saw this tape and the victim was a family member or close friend of mine i would want blood in return

Eh, I don't see any mistakes in what I said.

"Americans" can't really push for change when there's no centralized organisation that dictates police policy. If you live in NYC and this is a big issue for you, you can't do much to stop it from happening in Arizona. Consequently, the ability of the public to effect change here is limited. Hence why I emphasized that there are thousands of independently operated police departments. In places where this is ostensibly a recurring problem (e.g. Chicago), there are mostly already reform attempts in place.

I didn't ignore that the US seems to have higher police shooting fatality rates compared to other countries--hence why I pointed out what seems to me to be the most likely potential country-level culprit (gun policy).

My other implicit point was that at least 500-1000 people a year die from pretty much anything you can think of in a population of ~350M. At least in terms of number of lives saved, it's hard for me to conclude that this is the area where we can most move the needle. On the other hand, the public perception (and this political pressure/outrage) is going to be dramatically biased upwards relative to other issues because of the media attention and emotional power associated with the issue.

500-1000 people a year don't die from Islamic terrorist attacks in the US and yet that seems to be an issue.

This ignores the fact that, if you ignore the growth of Islamic terrorist groups, you increase your exposure of tail risks such as 9/11 (worse). There's also a deterrent aspect that needs to be considered.

Even given those factors though, I do honestly question sometimes whether the War on Terror can be justify its cost. My hunch is that terrorism's media exposure and emotional impacts may actually result in overreactions to terror, but I'm not knowledgeable enough (and the data likely doesn't exist) to estimate that with any certainty.

there's more than enough data to establish with complete certainty that the war on terror does not justify its cost. (at least that's true for several very reasonable ways of looking at the data using reasonable assumptions, and for other ways it still strongly trends toward not bein worthwhile)

I'm pretty skeptical here because the tail risks are essentially impossible to estimate with data. If NK sold a nuclear ICBM to ISIS and it hit Manhattan, the cost of the War on Terror is certainly justified.

When you start getting into estimating highly improbable and unprecedented stuff with unfathomable costs, "statistics" is more akin to guesswork than anything else.

You could maybe make the conclusion you're trying to make by playing with assumptions, but you certainly won't be doing it with data.

nothing can be estimated perfectly, that doesn't mean it can't be estimated pretty well.
also, that first paragraph is a garbage argument, and as a statistician you should know it; it's about expected value, not about the outcome that happens to occur.
just because unknown unknowns exist doesn't mean we can't come up with some fairly decent numbers.
and we most certainly can make it with data, it seems more like you're just being resistant to it because you don't like the conclusion that it was an obvious and avoidable mistake from an actuarial perspective. you're not always that reluctant to make conclusions about things.

Great, since that's such a trivial problem to you then please explain to me how you're going to calculate the average of a distribution without knowing what that distribution is. You're literally being bananas here dude, and are clearly totally ignorant about the challenges of estimating tail risk. Even a cursory Google search to Wikipedia would have told you how challenging it is estimate tail risk. And you're telling me what can do it in a time series context in a region of the space that is totally unexplored (e.g. the potential sale of a nuclear ICBM by a rogue state to terrorist group that's hypothetically been left alone for a decade and a half).

How do you even estimate the cost of such an attack? In economic terms, again, you have no data to estimate the impact of NYC being vaporized (I'm waiting for you to tell me you can compare it to Hiroshima lol). Even ignoring that, how much economic cost (in USD) do you put on each person killed in such an attack? How do you value an an American civilian's life vs a Middle East civilian's life? These are terribly subjective, opinions vary on them widely, and they're 100% necessary to make such an estimation. So even if "some guy" did an analysis, it would likely be totally useless conclusion to everyone but himself.

Like I said, you can make assumptions and try to guestimate how good they are but there's literally no data on a hypothetical situation like that. Let alone enough to estimate a long-run probability of it occurring. And that's one out of an infinite amount of potential unknown unknowns that could come up. You're terribly out of your depth here, and it's pretty obvious. The fact that a model can output a number doesn't that the number is at all useful.

Has it ever occurred to you that sometimes I (like everyone else) post more seriously and/or knowledgeably on a topic than others? If there was a reasonable certainty threshold require to post here, this thread wasn't exist. The nature of politics is that there isn't enough time in your life or even enough data to do a detailed analysis of every issue without huge uncertainty, but you still have to vote. Hence why a lot of it, even among intellectual circles, relies on intuition, heuristics, etc.

The risk of ISIS using a NK nuke to nuke NY is the same as the risk of NK nuking NY. Nobody thinks NK wouldn't get destroyed if they sold a nuke to ISIS. Hell, we destroyed Iraq and Saddam had nothing to do with Bin Laden.

You don't get any increased risk by adding ISIS into the equation.

The fact that your response is focused on one scenario assuming a present-day ISIS exactly illustrates my point. You and Zlefin don't know what you're doing.

If you ask anyone with the faintest competence in statistics to estimate (using data) whether the War on Terror is justified, you're going to be responded to with a long explanation similar to the one I just gave you and no answer.


if you ask any statistician for any significant results and he concludes an affirmative answer, it is nonsense. the famous line of all statistics papers is such that they will never definitively state something is significant and instead say ‘well it looks funny but there’s no conclusive evidence.’

so this rings rather hollow.
Excludos
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
Norway8067 Posts
December 08 2017 23:37 GMT
#189412
On December 09 2017 08:28 brian wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 09 2017 06:41 mozoku wrote:
On December 09 2017 06:35 KwarK wrote:
On December 09 2017 06:20 mozoku wrote:
On December 09 2017 05:39 zlefin wrote:
On December 09 2017 05:31 mozoku wrote:
On December 09 2017 05:21 zlefin wrote:
On December 09 2017 05:15 mozoku wrote:
On December 09 2017 05:03 KwarK wrote:
On December 09 2017 05:01 mozoku wrote:
[quote]
Eh, I don't see any mistakes in what I said.

"Americans" can't really push for change when there's no centralized organisation that dictates police policy. If you live in NYC and this is a big issue for you, you can't do much to stop it from happening in Arizona. Consequently, the ability of the public to effect change here is limited. Hence why I emphasized that there are thousands of independently operated police departments. In places where this is ostensibly a recurring problem (e.g. Chicago), there are mostly already reform attempts in place.

I didn't ignore that the US seems to have higher police shooting fatality rates compared to other countries--hence why I pointed out what seems to me to be the most likely potential country-level culprit (gun policy).

My other implicit point was that at least 500-1000 people a year die from pretty much anything you can think of in a population of ~350M. At least in terms of number of lives saved, it's hard for me to conclude that this is the area where we can most move the needle. On the other hand, the public perception (and this political pressure/outrage) is going to be dramatically biased upwards relative to other issues because of the media attention and emotional power associated with the issue.

500-1000 people a year don't die from Islamic terrorist attacks in the US and yet that seems to be an issue.

This ignores the fact that, if you ignore the growth of Islamic terrorist groups, you increase your exposure of tail risks such as 9/11 (worse). There's also a deterrent aspect that needs to be considered.

Even given those factors though, I do honestly question sometimes whether the War on Terror can be justify its cost. My hunch is that terrorism's media exposure and emotional impacts may actually result in overreactions to terror, but I'm not knowledgeable enough (and the data likely doesn't exist) to estimate that with any certainty.

there's more than enough data to establish with complete certainty that the war on terror does not justify its cost. (at least that's true for several very reasonable ways of looking at the data using reasonable assumptions, and for other ways it still strongly trends toward not bein worthwhile)

I'm pretty skeptical here because the tail risks are essentially impossible to estimate with data. If NK sold a nuclear ICBM to ISIS and it hit Manhattan, the cost of the War on Terror is certainly justified.

When you start getting into estimating highly improbable and unprecedented stuff with unfathomable costs, "statistics" is more akin to guesswork than anything else.

You could maybe make the conclusion you're trying to make by playing with assumptions, but you certainly won't be doing it with data.

nothing can be estimated perfectly, that doesn't mean it can't be estimated pretty well.
also, that first paragraph is a garbage argument, and as a statistician you should know it; it's about expected value, not about the outcome that happens to occur.
just because unknown unknowns exist doesn't mean we can't come up with some fairly decent numbers.
and we most certainly can make it with data, it seems more like you're just being resistant to it because you don't like the conclusion that it was an obvious and avoidable mistake from an actuarial perspective. you're not always that reluctant to make conclusions about things.

Great, since that's such a trivial problem to you then please explain to me how you're going to calculate the average of a distribution without knowing what that distribution is. You're literally being bananas here dude, and are clearly totally ignorant about the challenges of estimating tail risk. Even a cursory Google search to Wikipedia would have told you how challenging it is estimate tail risk. And you're telling me what can do it in a time series context in a region of the space that is totally unexplored (e.g. the potential sale of a nuclear ICBM by a rogue state to terrorist group that's hypothetically been left alone for a decade and a half).

How do you even estimate the cost of such an attack? In economic terms, again, you have no data to estimate the impact of NYC being vaporized (I'm waiting for you to tell me you can compare it to Hiroshima lol). Even ignoring that, how much economic cost (in USD) do you put on each person killed in such an attack? How do you value an an American civilian's life vs a Middle East civilian's life? These are terribly subjective, opinions vary on them widely, and they're 100% necessary to make such an estimation. So even if "some guy" did an analysis, it would likely be totally useless conclusion to everyone but himself.

Like I said, you can make assumptions and try to guestimate how good they are but there's literally no data on a hypothetical situation like that. Let alone enough to estimate a long-run probability of it occurring. And that's one out of an infinite amount of potential unknown unknowns that could come up. You're terribly out of your depth here, and it's pretty obvious. The fact that a model can output a number doesn't that the number is at all useful.

Has it ever occurred to you that sometimes I (like everyone else) post more seriously and/or knowledgeably on a topic than others? If there was a reasonable certainty threshold require to post here, this thread wasn't exist. The nature of politics is that there isn't enough time in your life or even enough data to do a detailed analysis of every issue without huge uncertainty, but you still have to vote. Hence why a lot of it, even among intellectual circles, relies on intuition, heuristics, etc.

The risk of ISIS using a NK nuke to nuke NY is the same as the risk of NK nuking NY. Nobody thinks NK wouldn't get destroyed if they sold a nuke to ISIS. Hell, we destroyed Iraq and Saddam had nothing to do with Bin Laden.

You don't get any increased risk by adding ISIS into the equation.

The fact that your response is focused on one scenario assuming a present-day ISIS exactly illustrates my point. You and Zlefin don't know what you're doing.

If you ask anyone with the faintest competence in statistics to estimate (using data) whether the War on Terror is justified, you're going to be responded to with a long explanation similar to the one I just gave you and no answer.


if you ask any statistician for any significant results and he concludes an affirmative answer, it is nonsense. the famous line of all statistics papers is such that they will never definitively state something is significant and instead say ‘well it looks funny but there’s no conclusive evidence.’

so this rings rather hollow.


And this would be why:

http://www.tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations
Plansix
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States60190 Posts
December 08 2017 23:53 GMT
#189413


Newt is a peice of shit. And just think, he jump started this current era of "family values" republicans back in 1995.
I have the Honor to be your Obedient Servant, P.6
TL+ Member
Danglars
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States12133 Posts
December 09 2017 00:00 GMT
#189414
On December 09 2017 07:49 MyTHicaL wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 09 2017 06:37 Danglars wrote:


Yep but no one else in the international community believes that. The three most popular relligions all hold claim to that area. Doing this is not fulfilling campaign promesses, it is however, a very facilitating reason to unite all arab countries against the US. GL if the Saudis, Turks, Persians ever get together...

If we can agree on four presidents from current day and past all agreeing publicly that Jerusalem is the capital of Israel, then we're getting somewhere.

Secondly, I don't see any reason to deny the narrow case: Trump promised to move the US embassy to Jerusalem, Trump did start the process of moving the US embassy to Jerusalem. I think it's an important point in treating all presidents fairly and not in a partisan manner to admit the basic fact.
Great armies come from happy zealots, and happy zealots come from California!
TL+ Member
Gahlo
Profile Joined February 2010
United States35142 Posts
December 09 2017 00:03 GMT
#189415
On December 09 2017 09:00 Danglars wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 09 2017 07:49 MyTHicaL wrote:
On December 09 2017 06:37 Danglars wrote:
https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/939006911629869056


Yep but no one else in the international community believes that. The three most popular relligions all hold claim to that area. Doing this is not fulfilling campaign promesses, it is however, a very facilitating reason to unite all arab countries against the US. GL if the Saudis, Turks, Persians ever get together...

If we can agree on four presidents from current day and past all agreeing publicly that Jerusalem is the capital of Israel, then we're getting somewhere.

Secondly, I don't see any reason to deny the narrow case: Trump promised to move the US embassy to Jerusalem, Trump did start the process of moving the US embassy to Jerusalem. I think it's an important point in treating all presidents fairly and not in a partisan manner to admit the basic fact.

Trump isn't the only Republican in that group. Trying to hide behind other people being partisan doesn't work here.
zlefin
Profile Blog Joined October 2012
United States7689 Posts
December 09 2017 00:07 GMT
#189416
On December 09 2017 09:00 Danglars wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 09 2017 07:49 MyTHicaL wrote:
On December 09 2017 06:37 Danglars wrote:
https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/939006911629869056


Yep but no one else in the international community believes that. The three most popular relligions all hold claim to that area. Doing this is not fulfilling campaign promesses, it is however, a very facilitating reason to unite all arab countries against the US. GL if the Saudis, Turks, Persians ever get together...

If we can agree on four presidents from current day and past all agreeing publicly that Jerusalem is the capital of Israel, then we're getting somewhere.

Secondly, I don't see any reason to deny the narrow case: Trump promised to move the US embassy to Jerusalem, Trump did start the process of moving the US embassy to Jerusalem. I think it's an important point in treating all presidents fairly and not in a partisan manner to admit the basic fact.

I can agree it's fulfilling a campaign promise. i'ts of course still a dumb promise (like most of his were), and a dumb move.
Great read: http://shorensteincenter.org/news-coverage-2016-general-election/ great book on democracy: http://press.princeton.edu/titles/10671.html zlefin is grumpier due to long term illness. Ignoring some users.
mozoku
Profile Joined September 2012
United States708 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-12-09 00:17:01
December 09 2017 00:12 GMT
#189417
On December 09 2017 08:28 brian wrote:
if you ask any statistician for any significant results and he concludes an affirmative answer, it is nonsense. the famous line of all statistics papers is such that they will never definitively state something is significant and instead say ‘well it looks funny but there’s no conclusive evidence.’

so this rings rather hollow.

Excludos is correct, but I want to add that you're fighting a massively uphill battle if you want to argue the biggest problem with statistics in 2017 is too much caution about results.

Also, nothing I've said has had anything to with significant results, as philosophically I fall into the camp that maintains "significance" is basically "uncertainty laundering" and the world would be better off without it in 99% of places it's used.
brian
Profile Blog Joined August 2004
United States9617 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-12-09 00:21:15
December 09 2017 00:14 GMT
#189418
On December 09 2017 09:12 mozoku wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 09 2017 08:28 brian wrote:
if you ask any statistician for any significant results and he concludes an affirmative answer, it is nonsense. the famous line of all statistics papers is such that they will never definitively state something is significant and instead say ‘well it looks funny but there’s no conclusive evidence.’

so this rings rather hollow.

Excludos is correct, but I want to add that you're fighting a massively uphill battle if you want to argue the biggest problem with statistics in 2017 is too much caution about results.

i’d make no such claim. but if your argument rests on ‘ask any statistician and you’ll hear that they can make no such conclusion’ then you have a bad argument.

i apologize in advance if i mistakenly singled out a post and missed the other. re-reading the chain i don’t think i’ve mischaracterized the response, you seem happy to claim uncertainty, if not in so many words. in spite of your edit.
Plansix
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States60190 Posts
December 09 2017 00:15 GMT
#189419
The US definitely gets nothing but increased risk from doing it too.
I have the Honor to be your Obedient Servant, P.6
TL+ Member
mozoku
Profile Joined September 2012
United States708 Posts
December 09 2017 00:21 GMT
#189420
On December 09 2017 09:14 brian wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 09 2017 09:12 mozoku wrote:
On December 09 2017 08:28 brian wrote:
if you ask any statistician for any significant results and he concludes an affirmative answer, it is nonsense. the famous line of all statistics papers is such that they will never definitively state something is significant and instead say ‘well it looks funny but there’s no conclusive evidence.’

so this rings rather hollow.

Excludos is correct, but I want to add that you're fighting a massively uphill battle if you want to argue the biggest problem with statistics in 2017 is too much caution about results.

i’d make no such claim. but if your argument rests on ‘ask any statistician and you’ll hear that they can make no such conclusion’ than you have a bad argument.

See my edit. I fundamentally disagree with you here. The statistician, if they're doing their job appropriately, won't be talking in terms of significance but in terms of uncertainty.
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