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Read the rules in the OP before posting, please.

In order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a re-read to refresh your memory! The vast majority of you are contributing in a healthy way, keep it up!

NOTE: When providing a source, explain why you feel it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion if it's not obvious.
Also take note that unsubstantiated tweets/posts meant only to rekindle old arguments can result in a mod action.
Plansix
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States60190 Posts
March 01 2017 15:40 GMT
#140001
On March 02 2017 00:18 farvacola wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 02 2017 00:16 mikedebo wrote:
On March 01 2017 23:56 xDaunt wrote:
On March 01 2017 23:00 Nebuchad wrote:
On March 01 2017 22:43 Liquid`Drone wrote:
On March 01 2017 19:06 Nebuchad wrote:
On March 01 2017 14:57 Nyxisto wrote:
isn't exactly working out for Corbyn is it. The base can love you to death but you don't win an election by winning over your base. There's no need to over adjust really. Dems lost by 70k votes in three states this time, if < 0.1% of the population would have changed their minds you wouldn't have that discussion. Not to mention that three consecutive party wins in the US are very rare.

I think people are a little quick to see relations where none are, not everything is a policy issue.


They didn't just barely lose, they barely lost to Donald Trump. I don't really think you're dishonest when you say stuff like this but really how do you not see that "barely losing" isn't the same thing when you lose to a decent candidate or when you lose to someone who has perhaps the most blatantly shitty program I've ever seen (down to "I'm going to fight against income inequality by taxing the rich less"), is already hated by a significant number of his own population and ridiculed by an even more significant number, and can barely put coherent sentences together?

We can also pretend that this election is the only thing that happened and that the democrats haven't lost a zillion seats with their strategy since 2009 but that's not really productive either now is it.

Also are we really going to go to Corbyn every time now just because Dershowitz mentioned him in the middle of his propaganda piece?


The republicans lost much harder to the same person. The fact is that for all of Trump's blatantly obvious flaws, we have to accept that he also has some (less obvious) qualities that resonate strongly with a significant amount of Americans. I mean, I definitely want democrats to push harder leftward, I definitely agree that Trump is a disaster, but I don't think he's as easy of an opponent to defeat as some people like to pretend. The whole, never argue with an idiot because he'll drag you down to his level and beat you with experience holds some truth, and in a presidential campaign, you have no choice but to argue with him. Hillary being the democrat choice made the case of bringing her down much easier because a couple decades of smearing makes stuff stick, but I think no matter the candidate chosen, the person opposing Trump would have seen their favorability numbers tank during the election period - media fragmentation was a thing before the election as well.


It's not a huge surprise to me that Donald Trump would beat the other republicans, given that on republican subjects he's basically saying the same general things with less filters (bonus, because "political correctness" is baaaad -_-) and when he departs it's on things that they appreciate more than what the other republicans have to say. Republicans should certainly fear someone like that because they're not in a very honest business in the first place so a better salesman is a real threat. The other side actually has sane policies on their side. An advantage in facts coupled with an advantage in fighting a ridiculous manchild with hateful rhetoric, that's not material for a close race, and we're doing a disservice to America when we pretend it should have been expected to be one just because they did happen to lose it.


what democrats commonly overlook is that their message is not resonating with the voting public at large -- particularly anywhere outside of larger, urban areas.


Interestingly, 4/5ths of the US population lives in what appears to be defined as "urban areas", and this number is growing. This is a global problem that most of the world appears to be sitting on their hands about -- Canada is in a similar situation. When we define voting boundaries by geography and basically never update those lines despite massive change in population distribution, I think we have a bit of a representation problem.

Anyhow, this obviously isn't directly pertinent to the immediate issues you're describing, and you did specify _large_ urban areas, but it is something I find interesting to think about.

It's important to note that if Trump's budget is any indication, federal policy these next four years will only further shrink the size of rural demographics, particularly as medical migration becomes more and more important between states that fund their healthcare systems and those that don't.

Are there studies of medical migration out there one should read?
I have the Honor to be your Obedient Servant, P.6
TL+ Member
mikedebo
Profile Joined December 2010
Canada4341 Posts
March 01 2017 15:41 GMT
#140002
On March 02 2017 00:34 Gorsameth wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 02 2017 00:16 mikedebo wrote:
On March 01 2017 23:56 xDaunt wrote:
On March 01 2017 23:00 Nebuchad wrote:
On March 01 2017 22:43 Liquid`Drone wrote:
On March 01 2017 19:06 Nebuchad wrote:
On March 01 2017 14:57 Nyxisto wrote:
isn't exactly working out for Corbyn is it. The base can love you to death but you don't win an election by winning over your base. There's no need to over adjust really. Dems lost by 70k votes in three states this time, if < 0.1% of the population would have changed their minds you wouldn't have that discussion. Not to mention that three consecutive party wins in the US are very rare.

I think people are a little quick to see relations where none are, not everything is a policy issue.


They didn't just barely lose, they barely lost to Donald Trump. I don't really think you're dishonest when you say stuff like this but really how do you not see that "barely losing" isn't the same thing when you lose to a decent candidate or when you lose to someone who has perhaps the most blatantly shitty program I've ever seen (down to "I'm going to fight against income inequality by taxing the rich less"), is already hated by a significant number of his own population and ridiculed by an even more significant number, and can barely put coherent sentences together?

We can also pretend that this election is the only thing that happened and that the democrats haven't lost a zillion seats with their strategy since 2009 but that's not really productive either now is it.

Also are we really going to go to Corbyn every time now just because Dershowitz mentioned him in the middle of his propaganda piece?


The republicans lost much harder to the same person. The fact is that for all of Trump's blatantly obvious flaws, we have to accept that he also has some (less obvious) qualities that resonate strongly with a significant amount of Americans. I mean, I definitely want democrats to push harder leftward, I definitely agree that Trump is a disaster, but I don't think he's as easy of an opponent to defeat as some people like to pretend. The whole, never argue with an idiot because he'll drag you down to his level and beat you with experience holds some truth, and in a presidential campaign, you have no choice but to argue with him. Hillary being the democrat choice made the case of bringing her down much easier because a couple decades of smearing makes stuff stick, but I think no matter the candidate chosen, the person opposing Trump would have seen their favorability numbers tank during the election period - media fragmentation was a thing before the election as well.


It's not a huge surprise to me that Donald Trump would beat the other republicans, given that on republican subjects he's basically saying the same general things with less filters (bonus, because "political correctness" is baaaad -_-) and when he departs it's on things that they appreciate more than what the other republicans have to say. Republicans should certainly fear someone like that because they're not in a very honest business in the first place so a better salesman is a real threat. The other side actually has sane policies on their side. An advantage in facts coupled with an advantage in fighting a ridiculous manchild with hateful rhetoric, that's not material for a close race, and we're doing a disservice to America when we pretend it should have been expected to be one just because they did happen to lose it.


what democrats commonly overlook is that their message is not resonating with the voting public at large -- particularly anywhere outside of larger, urban areas.


Interestingly, 4/5ths of the US population lives in what appears to be defined as "urban areas", and this number is growing. This is a global problem that most of the world appears to be sitting on their hands about -- Canada is in a similar situation. When we define voting boundaries by geography and basically never update those lines despite massive change in population distribution, I think we have a bit of a representation problem.

Anyhow, this obviously isn't directly pertinent to the immediate issues you're describing, and you did specify _large_ urban areas, but it is something I find interesting to think about.

I wouldn't call it so much 'sitting on their hands' as it being a very complicated problem involving effects that have been in general very positive for everyone's standard of living (globalization/automation) but detrimental to a group (low skilled labor).

The problem is that there is no visible solution to the problem, not that people don't care about those effected.
The only real solution I know of it Basic Income and it still has major issues in financing (requiring a global restructuring of how we tax production) and social pressure (I don't want to pay for something sitting on their ass all day).

If someone can come up with a good solution there is a Nobel Prize in it for sure.


Totally agree with you, but I was specifically referring to the problem of electoral systems adapting to population shifts.
I NEED A PHOTOSYNTHESIS! ||| 'airtoss' is an anagram of 'artosis' ||| SANGHOOOOOO ||| "No Korea? No problem. I have internet." -- Stardust
Nebuchad
Profile Blog Joined December 2012
Switzerland12475 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-03-01 15:46:52
March 01 2017 15:44 GMT
#140003
On March 01 2017 23:56 xDaunt wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 01 2017 23:00 Nebuchad wrote:
On March 01 2017 22:43 Liquid`Drone wrote:
On March 01 2017 19:06 Nebuchad wrote:
On March 01 2017 14:57 Nyxisto wrote:
isn't exactly working out for Corbyn is it. The base can love you to death but you don't win an election by winning over your base. There's no need to over adjust really. Dems lost by 70k votes in three states this time, if < 0.1% of the population would have changed their minds you wouldn't have that discussion. Not to mention that three consecutive party wins in the US are very rare.

I think people are a little quick to see relations where none are, not everything is a policy issue.


They didn't just barely lose, they barely lost to Donald Trump. I don't really think you're dishonest when you say stuff like this but really how do you not see that "barely losing" isn't the same thing when you lose to a decent candidate or when you lose to someone who has perhaps the most blatantly shitty program I've ever seen (down to "I'm going to fight against income inequality by taxing the rich less"), is already hated by a significant number of his own population and ridiculed by an even more significant number, and can barely put coherent sentences together?

We can also pretend that this election is the only thing that happened and that the democrats haven't lost a zillion seats with their strategy since 2009 but that's not really productive either now is it.

Also are we really going to go to Corbyn every time now just because Dershowitz mentioned him in the middle of his propaganda piece?


The republicans lost much harder to the same person. The fact is that for all of Trump's blatantly obvious flaws, we have to accept that he also has some (less obvious) qualities that resonate strongly with a significant amount of Americans. I mean, I definitely want democrats to push harder leftward, I definitely agree that Trump is a disaster, but I don't think he's as easy of an opponent to defeat as some people like to pretend. The whole, never argue with an idiot because he'll drag you down to his level and beat you with experience holds some truth, and in a presidential campaign, you have no choice but to argue with him. Hillary being the democrat choice made the case of bringing her down much easier because a couple decades of smearing makes stuff stick, but I think no matter the candidate chosen, the person opposing Trump would have seen their favorability numbers tank during the election period - media fragmentation was a thing before the election as well.


It's not a huge surprise to me that Donald Trump would beat the other republicans, given that on republican subjects he's basically saying the same general things with less filters (bonus, because "political correctness" is baaaad -_-) and when he departs it's on things that they appreciate more than what the other republicans have to say. Republicans should certainly fear someone like that because they're not in a very honest business in the first place so a better salesman is a real threat. The other side actually has sane policies on their side. An advantage in facts coupled with an advantage in fighting a ridiculous manchild with hateful rhetoric, that's not material for a close race, and we're doing a disservice to America when we pretend it should have been expected to be one just because they did happen to lose it.

This is precisely the kind of misplaced elitist thinking that has led the democrats to become the weakest American political party in 90 years. For all of the talk about how bad of a candidate Hillary was (and she was bad), what democrats commonly overlook is that their message is not resonating with the voting public at large -- particularly anywhere outside of larger, urban areas. There very much was a "referendum on the Obama era" element to this election that democrats really don't want to talk about because of the implications for many elements of the democrat platform. I don't think that it's too bold to suggest that chalking up a rejection of the democrat platform to the idiocy of the American voting public is the wrong answer.


Will you take part of the responsibility for simply assuming that because I believe the republican platform is wrong and/or dishonest, a lot, on a lot of subjects, it must be because I think I'm better than them, and not simply because I've studied it and come to that conclusion naturally?
No will to live, no wish to die
farvacola
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
United States18866 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-03-01 15:48:31
March 01 2017 15:48 GMT
#140004
On March 02 2017 00:40 Plansix wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 02 2017 00:18 farvacola wrote:
On March 02 2017 00:16 mikedebo wrote:
On March 01 2017 23:56 xDaunt wrote:
On March 01 2017 23:00 Nebuchad wrote:
On March 01 2017 22:43 Liquid`Drone wrote:
On March 01 2017 19:06 Nebuchad wrote:
On March 01 2017 14:57 Nyxisto wrote:
isn't exactly working out for Corbyn is it. The base can love you to death but you don't win an election by winning over your base. There's no need to over adjust really. Dems lost by 70k votes in three states this time, if < 0.1% of the population would have changed their minds you wouldn't have that discussion. Not to mention that three consecutive party wins in the US are very rare.

I think people are a little quick to see relations where none are, not everything is a policy issue.


They didn't just barely lose, they barely lost to Donald Trump. I don't really think you're dishonest when you say stuff like this but really how do you not see that "barely losing" isn't the same thing when you lose to a decent candidate or when you lose to someone who has perhaps the most blatantly shitty program I've ever seen (down to "I'm going to fight against income inequality by taxing the rich less"), is already hated by a significant number of his own population and ridiculed by an even more significant number, and can barely put coherent sentences together?

We can also pretend that this election is the only thing that happened and that the democrats haven't lost a zillion seats with their strategy since 2009 but that's not really productive either now is it.

Also are we really going to go to Corbyn every time now just because Dershowitz mentioned him in the middle of his propaganda piece?


The republicans lost much harder to the same person. The fact is that for all of Trump's blatantly obvious flaws, we have to accept that he also has some (less obvious) qualities that resonate strongly with a significant amount of Americans. I mean, I definitely want democrats to push harder leftward, I definitely agree that Trump is a disaster, but I don't think he's as easy of an opponent to defeat as some people like to pretend. The whole, never argue with an idiot because he'll drag you down to his level and beat you with experience holds some truth, and in a presidential campaign, you have no choice but to argue with him. Hillary being the democrat choice made the case of bringing her down much easier because a couple decades of smearing makes stuff stick, but I think no matter the candidate chosen, the person opposing Trump would have seen their favorability numbers tank during the election period - media fragmentation was a thing before the election as well.


It's not a huge surprise to me that Donald Trump would beat the other republicans, given that on republican subjects he's basically saying the same general things with less filters (bonus, because "political correctness" is baaaad -_-) and when he departs it's on things that they appreciate more than what the other republicans have to say. Republicans should certainly fear someone like that because they're not in a very honest business in the first place so a better salesman is a real threat. The other side actually has sane policies on their side. An advantage in facts coupled with an advantage in fighting a ridiculous manchild with hateful rhetoric, that's not material for a close race, and we're doing a disservice to America when we pretend it should have been expected to be one just because they did happen to lose it.


what democrats commonly overlook is that their message is not resonating with the voting public at large -- particularly anywhere outside of larger, urban areas.


Interestingly, 4/5ths of the US population lives in what appears to be defined as "urban areas", and this number is growing. This is a global problem that most of the world appears to be sitting on their hands about -- Canada is in a similar situation. When we define voting boundaries by geography and basically never update those lines despite massive change in population distribution, I think we have a bit of a representation problem.

Anyhow, this obviously isn't directly pertinent to the immediate issues you're describing, and you did specify _large_ urban areas, but it is something I find interesting to think about.

It's important to note that if Trump's budget is any indication, federal policy these next four years will only further shrink the size of rural demographics, particularly as medical migration becomes more and more important between states that fund their healthcare systems and those that don't.

Are there studies of medical migration out there one should read?
I actually just had a talk with my health law professor on the topic, and outside a few references in newer textbooks that touch the heightened health system differentiation allowed by the Supreme Court's ruling against the Medicaid expansion and according migration between states among those interested in particular kinds of health systems, there is very little data on it. The biggest shock, one could guess, is going to come when we start hitting those years in which the mortality rate of baby boomers spikes upwards, many of which are the last practitioners of traditional local limits on migration.
"when the Dead Kennedys found out they had skinhead fans, they literally wrote a song titled 'Nazi Punks Fuck Off'"
Doodsmack
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States7224 Posts
March 01 2017 15:49 GMT
#140005
UFOs are visiting at all-time highs, according to new statistics, which say that sightings are most common in the U.S.

The findings are based on data crunched by Sam Monfort, a doctoral student in Human Factors and Applied Cognition at George Mason University. Monfort wrote up his findings in a blog update that used information from the National UFO Reporting Center (NUFORC), an organization that documents UFO sightings.


Fox News Science
Acrofales
Profile Joined August 2010
Spain18365 Posts
March 01 2017 15:50 GMT
#140006
On March 02 2017 00:16 mikedebo wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 01 2017 23:56 xDaunt wrote:
On March 01 2017 23:00 Nebuchad wrote:
On March 01 2017 22:43 Liquid`Drone wrote:
On March 01 2017 19:06 Nebuchad wrote:
On March 01 2017 14:57 Nyxisto wrote:
isn't exactly working out for Corbyn is it. The base can love you to death but you don't win an election by winning over your base. There's no need to over adjust really. Dems lost by 70k votes in three states this time, if < 0.1% of the population would have changed their minds you wouldn't have that discussion. Not to mention that three consecutive party wins in the US are very rare.

I think people are a little quick to see relations where none are, not everything is a policy issue.


They didn't just barely lose, they barely lost to Donald Trump. I don't really think you're dishonest when you say stuff like this but really how do you not see that "barely losing" isn't the same thing when you lose to a decent candidate or when you lose to someone who has perhaps the most blatantly shitty program I've ever seen (down to "I'm going to fight against income inequality by taxing the rich less"), is already hated by a significant number of his own population and ridiculed by an even more significant number, and can barely put coherent sentences together?

We can also pretend that this election is the only thing that happened and that the democrats haven't lost a zillion seats with their strategy since 2009 but that's not really productive either now is it.

Also are we really going to go to Corbyn every time now just because Dershowitz mentioned him in the middle of his propaganda piece?


The republicans lost much harder to the same person. The fact is that for all of Trump's blatantly obvious flaws, we have to accept that he also has some (less obvious) qualities that resonate strongly with a significant amount of Americans. I mean, I definitely want democrats to push harder leftward, I definitely agree that Trump is a disaster, but I don't think he's as easy of an opponent to defeat as some people like to pretend. The whole, never argue with an idiot because he'll drag you down to his level and beat you with experience holds some truth, and in a presidential campaign, you have no choice but to argue with him. Hillary being the democrat choice made the case of bringing her down much easier because a couple decades of smearing makes stuff stick, but I think no matter the candidate chosen, the person opposing Trump would have seen their favorability numbers tank during the election period - media fragmentation was a thing before the election as well.


It's not a huge surprise to me that Donald Trump would beat the other republicans, given that on republican subjects he's basically saying the same general things with less filters (bonus, because "political correctness" is baaaad -_-) and when he departs it's on things that they appreciate more than what the other republicans have to say. Republicans should certainly fear someone like that because they're not in a very honest business in the first place so a better salesman is a real threat. The other side actually has sane policies on their side. An advantage in facts coupled with an advantage in fighting a ridiculous manchild with hateful rhetoric, that's not material for a close race, and we're doing a disservice to America when we pretend it should have been expected to be one just because they did happen to lose it.


what democrats commonly overlook is that their message is not resonating with the voting public at large -- particularly anywhere outside of larger, urban areas.


Interestingly, 4/5ths of the US population lives in what appears to be defined as "urban areas", and this number is growing. This is a global problem that most of the world appears to be sitting on their hands about -- Canada is in a similar situation. When we define voting boundaries by geography and basically never update those lines despite massive change in population distribution, I think we have a bit of a representation problem.

Anyhow, this obviously isn't directly pertinent to the immediate issues you're describing, and you did specify _large_ urban areas, but it is something I find interesting to think about.

You call it a problem, but is it? Leaving larger areas uninhabited can be a huge boon for nature. Of course, in reality what happens is that all those "uninhabited" areas are actually megafarms.
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
March 01 2017 15:56 GMT
#140007
A top House Republican is joining a chorus of GOP complaints over President Donald Trump's plan to dramatically cut funding for the State Department and other agencies in order to boost military spending — showing just how hard it will be for the White House to implement its dramatic new budget proposal.

Rep. Rodney Frelinghuysen (R-N.J.), chairman of the House Appropriations Committee, wants Trump to look at changes to popular entitlement programs like Medicare and Medicaid instead of slashing funding for the federal agencies.

Frelinghuysen is meeting with new OMB Director Mick Mulvaney — a former House colleague — on Thursday to deliver his message.

The White House has floated a plan to steer an additional $54 billion to the Pentagon in 2018, while cutting funding for the State Department, EPA and other agencies. The plan is already running into serious trouble on Capitol Hill.

Trump has said repeatedly that he won't cut Social Security or Medicare, but he would have to make huge reductions in other federal agencies to fund his Pentagon buildup without busting the budget. Democrats have blasted such a move, and Hill Republicans are already signaling their opposition as well.

"I think foreign aid is pretty important myself, so I'd like to see what the president has to say," Frelinghuysen told reporters on Tuesday, hours before Trump was scheduled to address a joint session of Congress. "There are some pretty important programs that keep America open for business and that are vital to our national security. I think it would be good to look at entitlement programs. Those are the real cost drivers."

Frelinghuysen added: "I'd like, obviously, my other congressional colleagues to take a look at those entitlement programs. Social Security is different than others, because its not a traditional entitlement."

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell also balked at the proposed cuts to State Department and foreign aid at a press briefing Tuesday.

The Kentucky Republican told reporters the Senate would "probably not" pass legislation cutting more than one-third of the State Department's budget, as Trump reportedly wants. Officials there have warned those cuts would require dramatic restructuring and staffing cuts across the board.

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) delivered a more blunt take in an interview with MSNBC on Tuesday: "It's dead on arrival. It's not going to happen. It would be a disaster.”

Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) criticized the plan as well, saying on Twitter, "Foreign aid is not charity. We must make sure it is well spent, but it is less than 1% of budget & critical to our national security.”


Source
"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
Mysticesper
Profile Joined January 2011
United States1183 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-03-01 15:57:20
March 01 2017 15:56 GMT
#140008
I wonder how they really define urban... Wyoming and Montana are more urban than some states east of the Mississippi and that baffles me.
Plansix
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States60190 Posts
March 01 2017 15:58 GMT
#140009
On March 02 2017 00:48 farvacola wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 02 2017 00:40 Plansix wrote:
On March 02 2017 00:18 farvacola wrote:
On March 02 2017 00:16 mikedebo wrote:
On March 01 2017 23:56 xDaunt wrote:
On March 01 2017 23:00 Nebuchad wrote:
On March 01 2017 22:43 Liquid`Drone wrote:
On March 01 2017 19:06 Nebuchad wrote:
On March 01 2017 14:57 Nyxisto wrote:
isn't exactly working out for Corbyn is it. The base can love you to death but you don't win an election by winning over your base. There's no need to over adjust really. Dems lost by 70k votes in three states this time, if < 0.1% of the population would have changed their minds you wouldn't have that discussion. Not to mention that three consecutive party wins in the US are very rare.

I think people are a little quick to see relations where none are, not everything is a policy issue.


They didn't just barely lose, they barely lost to Donald Trump. I don't really think you're dishonest when you say stuff like this but really how do you not see that "barely losing" isn't the same thing when you lose to a decent candidate or when you lose to someone who has perhaps the most blatantly shitty program I've ever seen (down to "I'm going to fight against income inequality by taxing the rich less"), is already hated by a significant number of his own population and ridiculed by an even more significant number, and can barely put coherent sentences together?

We can also pretend that this election is the only thing that happened and that the democrats haven't lost a zillion seats with their strategy since 2009 but that's not really productive either now is it.

Also are we really going to go to Corbyn every time now just because Dershowitz mentioned him in the middle of his propaganda piece?


The republicans lost much harder to the same person. The fact is that for all of Trump's blatantly obvious flaws, we have to accept that he also has some (less obvious) qualities that resonate strongly with a significant amount of Americans. I mean, I definitely want democrats to push harder leftward, I definitely agree that Trump is a disaster, but I don't think he's as easy of an opponent to defeat as some people like to pretend. The whole, never argue with an idiot because he'll drag you down to his level and beat you with experience holds some truth, and in a presidential campaign, you have no choice but to argue with him. Hillary being the democrat choice made the case of bringing her down much easier because a couple decades of smearing makes stuff stick, but I think no matter the candidate chosen, the person opposing Trump would have seen their favorability numbers tank during the election period - media fragmentation was a thing before the election as well.


It's not a huge surprise to me that Donald Trump would beat the other republicans, given that on republican subjects he's basically saying the same general things with less filters (bonus, because "political correctness" is baaaad -_-) and when he departs it's on things that they appreciate more than what the other republicans have to say. Republicans should certainly fear someone like that because they're not in a very honest business in the first place so a better salesman is a real threat. The other side actually has sane policies on their side. An advantage in facts coupled with an advantage in fighting a ridiculous manchild with hateful rhetoric, that's not material for a close race, and we're doing a disservice to America when we pretend it should have been expected to be one just because they did happen to lose it.


what democrats commonly overlook is that their message is not resonating with the voting public at large -- particularly anywhere outside of larger, urban areas.


Interestingly, 4/5ths of the US population lives in what appears to be defined as "urban areas", and this number is growing. This is a global problem that most of the world appears to be sitting on their hands about -- Canada is in a similar situation. When we define voting boundaries by geography and basically never update those lines despite massive change in population distribution, I think we have a bit of a representation problem.

Anyhow, this obviously isn't directly pertinent to the immediate issues you're describing, and you did specify _large_ urban areas, but it is something I find interesting to think about.

It's important to note that if Trump's budget is any indication, federal policy these next four years will only further shrink the size of rural demographics, particularly as medical migration becomes more and more important between states that fund their healthcare systems and those that don't.

Are there studies of medical migration out there one should read?
I actually just had a talk with my health law professor on the topic, and outside a few references in newer textbooks that touch the heightened health system differentiation allowed by the Supreme Court's ruling against the Medicaid expansion and according migration between states among those interested in particular kinds of health systems, there is very little data on it. The biggest shock, one could guess, is going to come when we start hitting those years in which the mortality rate of baby boomers spikes upwards, many of which are the last practitioners of traditional local limits on migration.

I ask because we just had a discussion about that with friends who moved to rural New York. They used to live Eastern MA, where healthcare is plentiful. But they are having a hard time finding a doctor for their two kids in NY that is within driving distance. They are sort of freaking out about it.

My home town used to have one doctor that lived about 20 minutes away, but he closed shop. So the surrounding 5 towns have no doctors within 45 minutes. Hospital is about the same distance, but the only way I would willingly check into that place is if I was unconscious. The modern hospital is about an hour away.

If it is that bad in states like NY and MA, I can’t even dream of what it is like in the more rural states.
I have the Honor to be your Obedient Servant, P.6
TL+ Member
farvacola
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
United States18866 Posts
March 01 2017 16:01 GMT
#140010
On March 02 2017 00:56 Mysticesper wrote:
I wonder how they really define urban... Wyoming and Montana are more urban than some states east of the Mississippi and that baffles me.

Think about it in terms of infrastructure and it starts to make a bit more sense; while western states are usually pretty conservative at the state level, they have a far more healthy attitude towards the funding of services than the state governments of the Deep South or Kansas, for example. Accordingly, I'd bet that measures of how "urban" a state are take that discrepancy into account.
"when the Dead Kennedys found out they had skinhead fans, they literally wrote a song titled 'Nazi Punks Fuck Off'"
KwarK
Profile Blog Joined July 2006
United States44190 Posts
March 01 2017 16:30 GMT
#140011
On March 01 2017 23:56 xDaunt wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 01 2017 23:00 Nebuchad wrote:
On March 01 2017 22:43 Liquid`Drone wrote:
On March 01 2017 19:06 Nebuchad wrote:
On March 01 2017 14:57 Nyxisto wrote:
isn't exactly working out for Corbyn is it. The base can love you to death but you don't win an election by winning over your base. There's no need to over adjust really. Dems lost by 70k votes in three states this time, if < 0.1% of the population would have changed their minds you wouldn't have that discussion. Not to mention that three consecutive party wins in the US are very rare.

I think people are a little quick to see relations where none are, not everything is a policy issue.


They didn't just barely lose, they barely lost to Donald Trump. I don't really think you're dishonest when you say stuff like this but really how do you not see that "barely losing" isn't the same thing when you lose to a decent candidate or when you lose to someone who has perhaps the most blatantly shitty program I've ever seen (down to "I'm going to fight against income inequality by taxing the rich less"), is already hated by a significant number of his own population and ridiculed by an even more significant number, and can barely put coherent sentences together?

We can also pretend that this election is the only thing that happened and that the democrats haven't lost a zillion seats with their strategy since 2009 but that's not really productive either now is it.

Also are we really going to go to Corbyn every time now just because Dershowitz mentioned him in the middle of his propaganda piece?


The republicans lost much harder to the same person. The fact is that for all of Trump's blatantly obvious flaws, we have to accept that he also has some (less obvious) qualities that resonate strongly with a significant amount of Americans. I mean, I definitely want democrats to push harder leftward, I definitely agree that Trump is a disaster, but I don't think he's as easy of an opponent to defeat as some people like to pretend. The whole, never argue with an idiot because he'll drag you down to his level and beat you with experience holds some truth, and in a presidential campaign, you have no choice but to argue with him. Hillary being the democrat choice made the case of bringing her down much easier because a couple decades of smearing makes stuff stick, but I think no matter the candidate chosen, the person opposing Trump would have seen their favorability numbers tank during the election period - media fragmentation was a thing before the election as well.


It's not a huge surprise to me that Donald Trump would beat the other republicans, given that on republican subjects he's basically saying the same general things with less filters (bonus, because "political correctness" is baaaad -_-) and when he departs it's on things that they appreciate more than what the other republicans have to say. Republicans should certainly fear someone like that because they're not in a very honest business in the first place so a better salesman is a real threat. The other side actually has sane policies on their side. An advantage in facts coupled with an advantage in fighting a ridiculous manchild with hateful rhetoric, that's not material for a close race, and we're doing a disservice to America when we pretend it should have been expected to be one just because they did happen to lose it.

This is precisely the kind of misplaced elitist thinking that has led the democrats to become the weakest American political party in 90 years. For all of the talk about how bad of a candidate Hillary was (and she was bad), what democrats commonly overlook is that their message is not resonating with the voting public at large -- particularly anywhere outside of larger, urban areas. There very much was a "referendum on the Obama era" element to this election that democrats really don't want to talk about because of the implications for many elements of the democrat platform. I don't think that it's too bold to suggest that chalking up a rejection of the democrat platform to the idiocy of the American voting public is the wrong answer.

Message not resonating with the voting public at large.

3 million more votes.

Alternate reality hard at work here. I guess the public at large just wanted Hillary less, right? How else can you explain them mostly voting for her?
ModeratorThe angels have the phone box
On_Slaught
Profile Joined August 2008
United States12190 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-03-01 16:32:52
March 01 2017 16:32 GMT
#140012
On March 02 2017 00:08 Plansix wrote:
The elitism of democrats is an overreliance on what they believe is rational arguments and talking down to anyone who appeals to emotions. That feelings are invalid and someone’s fear of immigration or refugees born of ignorance. There is some truth to that, but they are never going to change minds that way. Its like the fear of GMOs. You are never going go convince people they are safe by saying they don’t understand the science.

I would also say it is chicken shit leadership that is unwilling to appeal to trust and faith in them. That is a big part of Trump’s appeal. He says “Trust me, I will save you” and the voters want that. Democrats don’t want to tap into that because they see it as manipulative, which is not an invalid view. But it is also a core part of real leadership. Trusting someone to do what is in your best interest does require faith.


I agree 100%. It's very similar to the problem with debating religion. Faith is an emotional decision not an intellectual one. So trying to defeat its with rational arguments simply does not work.

The problem with politics is that a significant portion of the voting bloc are idiots that do not rely upon rational thought when making political decisions and instead rely upon emotions fed to them from their insular media choices or social group, which many times are unfounded. I'm confident that changing demographics will prove better for the Democrats but they definitely need to appeal more to emotions for the time being.

Newt Gingrich was definitely correct when he said that facts tend to favor liberals. That doesn't mean complete reliance upon them will get them what they want.
Plansix
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States60190 Posts
March 01 2017 16:44 GMT
#140013
On March 02 2017 01:32 On_Slaught wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 02 2017 00:08 Plansix wrote:
The elitism of democrats is an overreliance on what they believe is rational arguments and talking down to anyone who appeals to emotions. That feelings are invalid and someone’s fear of immigration or refugees born of ignorance. There is some truth to that, but they are never going to change minds that way. Its like the fear of GMOs. You are never going go convince people they are safe by saying they don’t understand the science.

I would also say it is chicken shit leadership that is unwilling to appeal to trust and faith in them. That is a big part of Trump’s appeal. He says “Trust me, I will save you” and the voters want that. Democrats don’t want to tap into that because they see it as manipulative, which is not an invalid view. But it is also a core part of real leadership. Trusting someone to do what is in your best interest does require faith.


I agree 100%. It's very similar to the problem with debating religion. Faith is an emotional decision not an intellectual one. So trying to defeat its with rational arguments simply does not work.

The problem with politics is that a significant portion of the voting bloc are idiots that do not rely upon rational thought when making political decisions and instead rely upon emotions fed to them from their insular media choices or social group, which many times are unfounded. I'm confident that changing demographics will prove better for the Democrats but they definitely need to appeal more to emotions for the time being.

Newt Gingrich was definitely correct when he said that facts tend to favor liberals. That doesn't mean complete reliance upon them will get them what they want.

As someone who grew up surrounded by those “idiots”, it is best to avoid using that language. Even with friendly audiences like myself. That attitude is what doomed democrats this time around and will continue to be a problem as long as people use it. I can say a lot of things about the GOP, but they avoid calling their supporters stupid at all costs.
I have the Honor to be your Obedient Servant, P.6
TL+ Member
ticklishmusic
Profile Blog Joined August 2011
United States15977 Posts
March 01 2017 16:45 GMT
#140014
On March 01 2017 14:49 GreenHorizons wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 01 2017 14:19 ticklishmusic wrote:
medicare for all, like universal basic income and many over social programs, is very popular until people realize the level of taxation needed. i guess there's the leftist version of magic math where you tax the corporations and rich, do a little adjusting for "efficiencies" and all of a sudden the numbers add up. devil's in the details, though people don't seem to appreciate that.


Just call it an "insurance premium" then, if they prefer to pay that instead.

Pitch it as treatment for the opioid epidemic in those rural places and explain it will be mostly California and New York paying for it.

Just stop being so awful at recognizing that the base is moving left and understand Democrats aren't going to win Republicans without losing ~70% of the next generation of Democrats.


maybe stop being so awful at recognizing that you live in the leftiest of left parts of the country.

marketing doesnt change the base numbers behind things.

On March 01 2017 17:30 KwarK wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 01 2017 14:19 ticklishmusic wrote:
medicare for all, like universal basic income and many over social programs, is very popular until people realize the level of taxation needed. i guess there's the leftist version of magic math where you tax the corporations and rich, do a little adjusting for "efficiencies" and all of a sudden the numbers add up. devil's in the details, though people don't seem to appreciate that.

Not really, take a look at your 1095-C sometime. The employed population are already paying an absolute fortune for healthcare. Medicare for all wouldn't be an additional tax on top of that.


doesn't work, still on parent's insurance

the issue with medicare for all is that incremental coverage of the population gets more and more expensive. payment isn't the only issue here, it's also availability. the biggest example is rural care - there simply isn't good healthcare infrastructure available because there is no incentive for providers - doctors, hospitals, whatever, to go there. a build out is gonna be expensive.
(╯°□°)╯︵ ┻━┻
On_Slaught
Profile Joined August 2008
United States12190 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-03-01 16:52:16
March 01 2017 16:51 GMT
#140015
On March 02 2017 01:44 Plansix wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 02 2017 01:32 On_Slaught wrote:
On March 02 2017 00:08 Plansix wrote:
The elitism of democrats is an overreliance on what they believe is rational arguments and talking down to anyone who appeals to emotions. That feelings are invalid and someone’s fear of immigration or refugees born of ignorance. There is some truth to that, but they are never going to change minds that way. Its like the fear of GMOs. You are never going go convince people they are safe by saying they don’t understand the science.

I would also say it is chicken shit leadership that is unwilling to appeal to trust and faith in them. That is a big part of Trump’s appeal. He says “Trust me, I will save you” and the voters want that. Democrats don’t want to tap into that because they see it as manipulative, which is not an invalid view. But it is also a core part of real leadership. Trusting someone to do what is in your best interest does require faith.


I agree 100%. It's very similar to the problem with debating religion. Faith is an emotional decision not an intellectual one. So trying to defeat its with rational arguments simply does not work.

The problem with politics is that a significant portion of the voting bloc are idiots that do not rely upon rational thought when making political decisions and instead rely upon emotions fed to them from their insular media choices or social group, which many times are unfounded. I'm confident that changing demographics will prove better for the Democrats but they definitely need to appeal more to emotions for the time being.

Newt Gingrich was definitely correct when he said that facts tend to favor liberals. That doesn't mean complete reliance upon them will get them what they want.

As someone who grew up surrounded by those “idiots”, it is best to avoid using that language. Even with friendly audiences like myself. That attitude is what doomed democrats this time around and will continue to be a problem as long as people use it. I can say a lot of things about the GOP, but they avoid calling their supporters stupid at all costs.


Oh I am well aware of this. I used that word to make a point, but it is not a word I would use on everyday conversation no matter how true it is. The second you call somebody stupid they stop listening and there is no chance of convincing them. Ofc there is a fair number of people so entrenched you can never convince them. They are a lost cause.
farvacola
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
United States18866 Posts
March 01 2017 16:52 GMT
#140016
Incremental coverage increases are only more expensive in the short term, particularly when they come alongside access to comprehensive coverage a la Parts A, B, and D. The gateway to a collective, systemic emphasis on preventative care is always going to be expensive, but the benefits down the line are almost certainly worth the cost (i.e. reduced check-up avoidance, faster environmental hazard detection, and a lot of others I can't think of at the moment).
"when the Dead Kennedys found out they had skinhead fans, they literally wrote a song titled 'Nazi Punks Fuck Off'"
Gorsameth
Profile Joined April 2010
Netherlands22459 Posts
March 01 2017 17:05 GMT
#140017
If insurance companies are required to provide coverage at low costs their willingness to spend on preventive care will naturally rise, because it increases their own profits by reducing costs in the long run (long term preventive care is still cheaper then waiting for someone to end up in the ER).
It ignores such insignificant forces as time, entropy, and death
Mysticesper
Profile Joined January 2011
United States1183 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-03-01 17:12:47
March 01 2017 17:09 GMT
#140018
On March 02 2017 01:01 farvacola wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 02 2017 00:56 Mysticesper wrote:
I wonder how they really define urban... Wyoming and Montana are more urban than some states east of the Mississippi and that baffles me.

Think about it in terms of infrastructure and it starts to make a bit more sense; while western states are usually pretty conservative at the state level, they have a far more healthy attitude towards the funding of services than the state governments of the Deep South or Kansas, for example. Accordingly, I'd bet that measures of how "urban" a state are take that discrepancy into account.

Yeah. The infrastructure out here is actually quite good, despite the rural nature of it all. I feel like I had better internet in Wyoming / Montana than people had in the "deep south" / midwest states (though it took till like 2008 or so to get DSL to our house). I just didn't understand it growing up. The wikipedia article mentions the definition changed in 1990 and such, but I couldn't see a reference or link as to what that definition was.
Acrofales
Profile Joined August 2010
Spain18365 Posts
March 01 2017 17:19 GMT
#140019
On March 02 2017 01:01 farvacola wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 02 2017 00:56 Mysticesper wrote:
I wonder how they really define urban... Wyoming and Montana are more urban than some states east of the Mississippi and that baffles me.

Think about it in terms of infrastructure and it starts to make a bit more sense; while western states are usually pretty conservative at the state level, they have a far more healthy attitude towards the funding of services than the state governments of the Deep South or Kansas, for example. Accordingly, I'd bet that measures of how "urban" a state are take that discrepancy into account.

That doesn't seem to stroke with what I usually hear as a definition for urbanization. Urbanization is that more people live in the larger cities. Wyoming being sparsely populated is all very well, but that says nothing about the distribution between living in largish towns, and those living in the countryside. That is what is measured in urbanization.

Of course, where you put the cut-off point between an urban environment and a rural town is going to make a large difference in your statistics. Given that Cheyenne has about 55,000 inhabitants and is the largest city in Wyoming, I think there may be some wiggle room there.

http://www.icip.iastate.edu/tables/population/urban-pct-states states "the urban definition included all population in urbanized areas and urban clusters (each with their own population size and density thresholds)."

Where they get that definition from is vague, and what density thresholds they use as well. But I'm not a demographer, so perhaps there is a well-known standard procedure for this. In any case, the measure of urbanization should have nothing to do with state funding of services.
farvacola
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
United States18866 Posts
March 01 2017 17:22 GMT
#140020
I'm not quite arguing that it's a one to one relationship, rather that a better funded state infrastructure tends to encourage urbanization to the extent that it may explain why Western, seemingly less densely populated states still rate as more urbanized than their Deep South relatives.
"when the Dead Kennedys found out they had skinhead fans, they literally wrote a song titled 'Nazi Punks Fuck Off'"
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