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Read the rules in the OP before posting, please.In order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a re-read to refresh your memory! The vast majority of you are contributing in a healthy way, keep it up! NOTE: When providing a source, explain why you feel it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion if it's not obvious. Also take note that unsubstantiated tweets/posts meant only to rekindle old arguments can result in a mod action. |
Cayman Islands24199 Posts
On February 14 2017 02:53 a_flayer wrote:Show nested quote +On February 14 2017 02:49 oneofthem wrote:On February 14 2017 02:40 a_flayer wrote:On February 14 2017 02:35 xDaunt wrote:
The Ukraine isn't an American problem. We have basically zero strategic interest in what happens in the Ukraine beyond the containment of Russia, to the extent that matters. This is a European problem. To the extent that the Europeans care, they are the ones who should do something. The Americans did a nice job kickstarting it though. "Fuck the EU" - Victoria Nuland. The consequences of the American diplomatic push within the Ukraine where that quote came from are now being felt. She was complaining how the EU would be too slow to respond, and Ukraine had to do shit on their own. If the Ukraine had simply waited a year, then the "pro-Russian" president would have likely signed the treaty anyway - the same treaty that was delayed for economic reasons even after the rebellion. Then, after that, they could have had an ordinary election cycle and elected the corrupt government of their choosing as they have it now and maybe skipped out on this civil war business entirely. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corruption_Perceptions_Index#2016 - they are on the same level as Russia, haha. I suppose Putin is doing a better job of covering it up. And now the EU is supposed to solve this mess? No thanks. you do realize nuland was very correct in both the message and the wording. europeans who think they are representing some sort of standard of civilization have much to answer for. they could provide a lot of very meaningful support in economic and institutional terms. the issue of ukrainian corruption is real, and the main thing blocking a positive solution. a positive solution would be something like, ukraine limits or temporarily accepts territorial losses but focus on improving their economy, get eu market and investment, become prosperous. this would be a huge disaster for moscow Why push to overthrow the government in a democratic country where people can somewhat decently rely on the accuracy of ballots? That makes no sense and is only going to cause problems. They achieving nothing but division. objectively, being pro eu is better for the ukrainian people by far, assuming eu doesn't go full protectionist which is not reliable, but was an ok assumption 10 years ago.
if you are some guy who thinks any involvement by foreign organizations taint a democratic mass movement, then you are just wrong.
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Pro-forces? Trump has the best words.
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Avdiivka
It is unclear who initiated the heavy fighting near the "Industrial Zone" area (located in the eastern part of Avdiivka) on 29 January 2017, with both sides accusing each other of starting the battle. According to The New York Times a military objective was a military position on the edge of Avdiivka called Almaz-2 (in English: Diamond-2), which had been under separatist control.
Looks to me like Kiev pushed forward and the separatists fought back.
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In any case, I hardly expect a third phase of Ukraine warring. Just skirmishes. The government is tearing itself apart back in Kiev, with prominent pro-Western folks all at each others' throats.
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By the "separatists", you mean Russian Troops and maybe some separatists, right? Because that has been the top secret plan of Russia.
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The problem for the Ukraine is that the Ukranian government isn't exactly a purely sympathetic party at this point. They're rather chomping at the bit to go to war with the Separatists. This complicates matters politically for the EU.
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Cayman Islands24199 Posts
On February 14 2017 02:58 a_flayer wrote:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_AvdiivkaShow nested quote +It is unclear who initiated the heavy fighting near the "Industrial Zone" area (located in the eastern part of Avdiivka) on 29 January 2017, with both sides accusing each other of starting the battle. According to The New York Times a military objective was a military position on the edge of Avdiivka called Almaz-2 (in English: Diamond-2), which had been under separatist control. Looks to me like Kiev pushed forward and the separatists fought back.
your ability to not read the next sentence in your source is remarkable.
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On February 14 2017 02:43 Shield wrote:
Do you guys think Trump will reduce legal immigration?
Well if I was thinking about immigrating to the US and I had the option to wait 4-8 years until Trumps is gone I would wait. So yeah, he will reduce immigration by making the US more undesirable to be in.
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On February 14 2017 03:03 xDaunt wrote:
The problem for the Ukraine is that the Ukranian government isn't exactly a purely sympathetic party at this point. They're rather chomping at the bit to go to war with the Separatists. This complicates matters politically for the EU.
There is no military victory for the Ukrainian government. That possibility has come and gone. Diplomacy is the only option if they want the Eastern regions back.
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Cayman Islands24199 Posts
On February 14 2017 03:03 xDaunt wrote:
The problem for the Ukraine is that the Ukranian government isn't exactly a purely sympathetic party at this point. They're rather chomping at the bit to go to war with the Separatists. This complicates matters politically for the EU.
this was nuland's problem when she said fuck the eu. it was about composition of the transition government. she wanted more eu style neoliberals to draw from and who will implement the correct policies for ukraine to be on a path of growth.
clone natalie jaresko
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On February 14 2017 02:38 Logo wrote:Show nested quote +On February 14 2017 02:23 Gorsameth wrote:On February 14 2017 02:20 oneofthem wrote:
the bigger danger on the russia front is some sort of mix of signals between trump and the military. trump gives assurance that russia can do some stuff, military command thinks otherwise. we've got a hot one.
it's not really relevant for ukraine, but in places where the u.s. has actual presence. Well considering Trump is the head of the Military I think we all understand why Putin is happily continuing his attempt to reform the USSR. This is where the EU should step in but they don't have the spine for it. Especially when the US is unlikely to have our back if things go bad. Not that Russia is at all innocent or anything, but this seems a bit heavy handed. We shouldn't excuse Russia's actions or anything, but it's not like everything is their doing. How would the USA react if Mexico was on a path to join the USSR (or Cuba)? Historically the US's response to that sort of thing was not so virtuous. There's a lot to be concerned about with Russia, but I feel like a lot of Russia's actions get whitewashed (almost immediately) to make them seem aggressive without any provocation.
My reaction would be the same to a US covert invasion of Cuba if it sought to align itself with Russia.
Yes neither side is clean in this and there are plenty of recent example of US military overreach (Iraq) but that does not mean we have to be ok with Russia invading its neighbours.
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Cayman Islands24199 Posts
it's also very unfair to disregard the ukrainian people, and btw, russian people in all this. for ukraine and russia, integration and development with europe is just so obviously superior, especially for the youth.
we could have a somewhat corrupt but improving situation in ukraine/russia in one of the counterfactual worlds. i'd say the responsibility is 25/75 between west and russian politics on this version of the world.
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On February 14 2017 03:03 xDaunt wrote:
The problem for the Ukraine is that the Ukranian government isn't exactly a purely sympathetic party at this point. They're rather chomping at the bit to go to war with the Separatists. This complicates matters politically for the EU.
This thing has been going on for a couple of years. If NATO has just rolled up instantly early on with US support for the Ukraine early on, it would have stabilized matters. Russia would be a lot less willing to push the limit if he had the risk of truly engaging all of NATO. That is what happened with every show down in Berlin over the wall.
Much like Syria, all the fence sitting let things get to a point where there is no recovery that people can feel good about. Though feeling good about deal with foreign powers is a luxury we seem to expect with every treaty now a days.
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The iceberg wedge salads, dripping with blue cheese dressing, had just been served on the terrace of Mar-a-Lago Saturday when the call to President Donald Trump came in: North Korea had launched an intermediate-range ballistic missile, its first challenge to international rules since Trump was sworn in three weeks ago.
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As Mar-a-Lago's wealthy members looked on from their tables, and with a keyboard player crooning in the background, Trump and Abe's evening meal quickly morphed into a strategy session, the decision-making on full view to fellow diners, who described it in detail to CNN.
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Trump's National Security Adviser Michael Flynn and chief strategist Steve Bannon left their seats to huddle closer to Trump as documents were produced and phone calls were placed to officials in Washington and Tokyo.
The patio was lit only with candles and moonlight, so aides used the camera lights on their phones to help the stone-faced Trump and Abe read through the documents.
Even as a flurry of advisers and translators descended upon the table carrying papers and phones for their bosses to consult, dinner itself proceeded apace. Waiters cleared the wedge salads and brought along the main course as Trump and Abe continued consulting with aides.
CNN
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You can call it Russian interference all you like. Assad had been rightfully claiming for years that foreigners were interfering in the opposition to his government (which caused him to tighten the straps) but that didn't stop America from condemning him and continuing to support the rebels there. This is a very similar deal in that regard, except now the US supports the existing government rather than the rebels.
Kiev moved in on separatist controlled areas, probably breaking Minsk II in the process, and fighting erupted. Nobody is on the right side of the argument here, but claiming "foreign interference" is a bullshit argument coming from an American.
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Cayman Islands24199 Posts
there will be a degree of foreign interference in just about any political movement. blaming foreign interference ENTIRELY for popular movements is the oldest tactic of bad regimes.
as an observer you would need to use judgement and assess whether the reform would be good, whether there are legitimate grievances voiced by protests or movements.
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On February 14 2017 03:11 oneofthem wrote:
it's also very unfair to disregard the ukrainian people, and btw, russian people in all this. for ukraine and russia, integration and development with europe is just so obviously superior, especially for the youth.
we could have a somewhat corrupt but improving situation in ukraine/russia in one of the counterfactual worlds. i'd say the responsibility is 25/75 between west and russian politics on this version of the world.
They're about evenly split on Westward and Eastward seeking folks. West Ukraine and East Ukraine are different in that regard.
Ukraine is a weird and random juxtaposition of multiple cultures that don't belong together.
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Cayman Islands24199 Posts
On February 14 2017 03:18 LegalLord wrote:Show nested quote +On February 14 2017 03:11 oneofthem wrote:
it's also very unfair to disregard the ukrainian people, and btw, russian people in all this. for ukraine and russia, integration and development with europe is just so obviously superior, especially for the youth.
we could have a somewhat corrupt but improving situation in ukraine/russia in one of the counterfactual worlds. i'd say the responsibility is 25/75 between west and russian politics on this version of the world. They're about evenly split on Westward and Eastward seeking folks. West Ukraine and East Ukraine are different in that regard. Ukraine is a weird and random juxtaposition of multiple cultures that don't belong together.
the russian situation is actually very similar to trump in that failure of liberal orthodoxy policies in addressing real needs of the people opened the doors for authoritarian politics centered around group identities.
the abetting of developing world mass looting and kleptocracy by western financial elites is i think very responsible for all kinds of problems.
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On February 14 2017 03:03 oneofthem wrote:Show nested quote +On February 14 2017 02:58 a_flayer wrote:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_AvdiivkaIt is unclear who initiated the heavy fighting near the "Industrial Zone" area (located in the eastern part of Avdiivka) on 29 January 2017, with both sides accusing each other of starting the battle. According to The New York Times a military objective was a military position on the edge of Avdiivka called Almaz-2 (in English: Diamond-2), which had been under separatist control. Looks to me like Kiev pushed forward and the separatists fought back. your ability to not read the next sentence in your source is remarkable.
Why were Kiev troops in the region to be bombed and killed there when it was under separatist control to begin with? The way I'm reading it, they moved in on the area (probably breaking Minsk II), and then the bombing started (also breaking Minsk II) BECAUSE the Kiev troops had moved in on separatist-controlled territory.
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The US election had this giant hack on one of our major political parties. Also the constant export of terrorists does seem to be an effort to get more nationalistic candidates elected. I think we should all drop the pretense that we are not trying to influence the political decisions of other nations.
In the Ukrainian tanks rolled over the border, which is on its own level. And before it is raised, I understand that the US invaded Iraq based on lie. I am just not sure that translates into Russia getting an invasion for free on its minor power of choice.
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EPT
