|
Read the rules in the OP before posting, please.In order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a re-read to refresh your memory! The vast majority of you are contributing in a healthy way, keep it up! NOTE: When providing a source, explain why you feel it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion if it's not obvious. Also take note that unsubstantiated tweets/posts meant only to rekindle old arguments can result in a mod action. |
On January 27 2017 08:56 xDaunt wrote:Show nested quote +On January 27 2017 08:11 On_Slaught wrote:On January 27 2017 08:00 xDaunt wrote:On January 27 2017 07:47 On_Slaught wrote:On January 27 2017 07:10 xDaunt wrote:On January 27 2017 07:08 Nyxisto wrote:
xDaunt you seem to be forgetting that the goods flowing into America from Mexico are also being consumed, you don't dump them into the river, so obviously punishing Mexico on the export side punishes American consumers on the import side. The US is free to start trade-wars left and right of course, but is that going to make Trump's core audience happy who actually relies on the stuff? I'm not forgetting anything. Of course trade wars have bilateral adverse effects, just as real wars do. But it's very clear which country has the superior firepower. Trump is smart to use it to the US's advantage. Smart? Risking damage to our economy just so somebody else funds Trump's vanity project? I think you're forgetting just how stupid and petty the basis of this argument is. For Mexico, it's an issue of national dignity. For Trump, considering the wall is to our benefit, not Mexicos, it's a matter of his ego that we don't just pay for it ourselves. You think that justifies damaging relationships and threatening a trade war? I'm not interesting in pointless moralizing. Here are the basic facts: 1) Mexico runs a huge trade surplus with the US 2) Mexico benefits hugely from illegal immigration to the US (which is why the government actively encourages it, despite its brazen hypocrisy when it comes to its own southern border) 3) The US has huge leverage over Mexico given 1 and 2 I really don't give a flying fucking about Mexican feelings. If anything, and as a good American, you should start thinking about the above from the perspective of an American. Mexico is abusing our good will. And it is time that Mexico even out the ledger. You're looking at this from a purely economic perspective and completely ignoring the pragmatics of politics. Do you really think there will be no consequences to bullying nations we're supposed to be allies with? Why wouldn't we look at the economics? Money is almost always the most important consideration. Money translates directly into strength, wealth, and power. And it's not like we're talking small numbers. We're talking tens of a billions of dollars annually. Trillions over a generation. I find it very hard to believe that there are many considerations that warrant the economic bending over that Mexico is giving us. Again, start thinking like an American and thinking about American interests. And take a good hard look at the current world order. Who exactly is going to punish us for balancing the ledger with Mexico? We are in a world populated by greedy assholes. They will continue to operate in their own selfish best interests. It's time that the US do the same. Show nested quote +This also ignores the the fact that the wall will not stop illegal immigration. Coupled with the fact that making Mexico's economy suffer will only increase the drive of people to make it into the u.s, and basically you're doing a lot of damage for little change. I beg to differ, but we can ignore this for now. Show nested quote +You also jeopardize NAFTA renegotiations. If you want more fair dealings with Mexico then sort that shit out in renegotiating NAFTA. But to try and "even the ledger" over something as divisive as the wall is counterproductive and only results and people not wanting to cooperate.
Like zlefin said above if your goal is to even things out then this is the exact wrong approach to do. This is hilarious. The only person who ever was interested in renegotiating NAFTA (unless you want to count Bernie) is Trump. Sorry, but, in a complete vacuum, I'm inclined to believe that he actually has a clue about how to pursue his own stated objective and that the opposition doesn't. Democrats are clueless on this matter because it's not their objective. But hey, feel free to offer an alternative idea for to stop Mexico from bending us over.
I'd say Trump himself?
Let's say he proposes that 35% import tax on mexican cars, on german cars, on european cars and on japanese cars and whatever he has planned with "China ripping the US off on trade" (not an actual quote but we know it's something along those lines for him, right?) as he mentioned and let's assume everyone involved will do something like that in response to the US. I don't think anyone would put a tax on US cars since they're not really that much of a thing outside of the US so just picture something else.
You're essentitally doing to yourself what we're doing to other countries to punish them when we don't like them (or what they're doing). Sure not as extreme as you're not going to straight up ban import/export but it's going to have an effect both ways. That's like saying Russia is doing swell right now because all those sanctions on them promote local jobs and I'm sure it does to some degree. I'm just not sure anyone actually wants that despite all that oO
|
I don't think the xDauntian "America strong! America fight everyone! Everyone must give America what America wants! Even if it is a ridiculous waste of money like a random wall! America strong!" - policy is very reasonable in the long run. You might be able to force some concessions out of some people in the short run (At best, i don't even think you will get that much of that done), but in the long run, having everyone around you hate you will eventually backfire.
|
On January 27 2017 09:02 ShoCkeyy wrote:
I don't get it, he talks about investing in our infrastructure, but then wants to go ahead and spend billions on an unnecessary wall...
are you looking for an explanation? I get the feeling you're not, hard to tell though. not that I have much of one to proffer at any rate.
|
On January 27 2017 09:05 Simberto wrote:
I don't think the xDauntian "America strong! America fight everyone! Everyone must give America what America wants! Even if it is a ridiculous waste of money like a random wall! America strong!" - policy is very reasonable in the long run. You might be able to force some concessions out of some people in the short run (At best, i don't even think you will get that much of that done), but in the long run, having everyone around you hate you will eventually backfire.
I'm not going to give away the secret end game but it does involve leading by example. Until then we have staunch trade alliances with UK,India and Canada with a military alliance to Russia. You should be more concerned with how is germany is going to deal with the end of globalism and find ways we can all work together diplomatically.
|
all this trade talk made me look up trade balance issues to get a better sense of things.
currently reading this article which seems well-written and useful, haven't finished yet, and ofc can't make a highly reliable vetting judgment, just that it seems reasonable so far:
https://www.cato.org/publications/congressional-testimony/americas-misunderstood-trade-deficit
edit: finished the article.
while I can't say for sure whether it's right or not, it certainly presents a case well and is a good read.
|
|
|
well technically but then the tariff has no effect, because the point of a tariff is to increase the price
|
Cayman Islands24199 Posts
On January 27 2017 09:21 plasmidghost wrote:
Is it possible for Trump to freeze prices on Mexican-sourced products and then impose the tariff?
uh if the trump nominated justices let this one slide, it would just drive out importers from the market and thus you get no avocados instead of more expensive avocados
|
Estonia4505 Posts
On January 27 2017 09:19 Noidberg wrote:Show nested quote +On January 27 2017 09:05 Simberto wrote:
I don't think the xDauntian "America strong! America fight everyone! Everyone must give America what America wants! Even if it is a ridiculous waste of money like a random wall! America strong!" - policy is very reasonable in the long run. You might be able to force some concessions out of some people in the short run (At best, i don't even think you will get that much of that done), but in the long run, having everyone around you hate you will eventually backfire. I'm not going to give away the secret end game but it does involve leading by example. Until then we have staunch trade alliances with UK,India and Canada with a military alliance to Russia. You should be more concerned with how is germany is going to deal with the end of globalism and find ways we can all work together diplomatically.
Working together diplomatically is literally what's being thrown under the bus at the moment. As for the secret end game - there is no alternative to globalism. It's either globalism or extinction. Today's troubles will seem like nothing if Trump and the neonationalists are not opposed.
|
|
|
On January 27 2017 09:32 oneofthem wrote:Show nested quote +On January 27 2017 09:21 plasmidghost wrote:
Is it possible for Trump to freeze prices on Mexican-sourced products and then impose the tariff? uh if the trump nominated justices let this one slide, it would just drive out importers from the market and thus you get no avocados instead of more expensive avocados
I can't imagine the man who poses in front of taco bowls would be stupid enough to get rid of avocados
|
Cayman Islands24199 Posts
On January 27 2017 09:53 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On January 27 2017 09:32 oneofthem wrote:On January 27 2017 09:21 plasmidghost wrote:
Is it possible for Trump to freeze prices on Mexican-sourced products and then impose the tariff? uh if the trump nominated justices let this one slide, it would just drive out importers from the market and thus you get no avocados instead of more expensive avocados I can't imagine the man who poses in front of taco bowls would be stupid enough to get rid of avocados
we might get some free trade hipsters. it's an interesting proposition that i could get behind
|
On January 27 2017 09:32 mustaju wrote:Show nested quote +On January 27 2017 09:19 Noidberg wrote:On January 27 2017 09:05 Simberto wrote:
I don't think the xDauntian "America strong! America fight everyone! Everyone must give America what America wants! Even if it is a ridiculous waste of money like a random wall! America strong!" - policy is very reasonable in the long run. You might be able to force some concessions out of some people in the short run (At best, i don't even think you will get that much of that done), but in the long run, having everyone around you hate you will eventually backfire. I'm not going to give away the secret end game but it does involve leading by example. Until then we have staunch trade alliances with UK,India and Canada with a military alliance to Russia. You should be more concerned with how is germany is going to deal with the end of globalism and find ways we can all work together diplomatically. Working together diplomatically is literally what's being thrown under the bus at the moment. As for the secret end game - there is no alternative to globalism. It's either globalism or extinction. Today's troubles will seem like nothing if Trump and the neonationalists are not opposed.
It was the mexican president who refused to come to the table diplomatically. Working together on immigration, gangs, drugs, human trafficking and trade needs to be done now or society will cease to function as automation increases. Illegal immigrants draw wealth out of countries, increases the wealth inequality of a society, drains resources out of the federal government as illegals do not pay taxes.I hear Trump plans to give amnesty to dreamers but understand the old ways of crony capitalism using illegal workers(slaves) is coming to an end. Same should be said about prisoners working for 12 cents an hour, it all needs to end!
Now i know the problems in mexico are attributed to the united states(CIA) using them as a narco state for drugs and human trafficking. But trump is reversing that as the alternative is anarchy and the death of both USA and mexico. So you bet your ass we are going to try and save this planet again like we did at WW2 with UK/USA and Russia at the helm even if we have to take you all kicking and screaming.
As for germany leading the EU to disaster i dont know what to do about them. Inviting mass migrants has been nothing but trouble and will only get worse as time goes on.
|
What if it was never about the wall and he's just using any old excuse to start trade wars? The reason someone might conclude this is as we know if you go back over 30 years of Trump's political heckling, it's only ever about trade and there wasn't a wall until he ran in 2015 among a GOP inching towards amnesty.
|
On January 27 2017 10:02 oBlade wrote:
What if it was never about the wall and he's just using any old excuse to start trade wars? The reason someone might conclude this is as we know if you go back over 30 years of Trump's political heckling, it's only ever about trade and there wasn't a wall until he ran in 2015 among a GOP inching towards amnesty.
There's also a reason there wasn't a birth certificate until he originally intended to run in 2011/2012.
|
On January 27 2017 10:14 Doodsmack wrote:Show nested quote +On January 27 2017 10:02 oBlade wrote:
What if it was never about the wall and he's just using any old excuse to start trade wars? The reason someone might conclude this is as we know if you go back over 30 years of Trump's political heckling, it's only ever about trade and there wasn't a wall until he ran in 2015 among a GOP inching towards amnesty. There's also a reason there wasn't a birth certificate until he originally intended to run in 2011/2012.
Yes, attention, or why don't you tell us what you might believe the reason is when you make your post about something you're bringing up?
|
Estonia4505 Posts
On January 27 2017 09:59 Noidberg wrote:Show nested quote +On January 27 2017 09:32 mustaju wrote:On January 27 2017 09:19 Noidberg wrote:On January 27 2017 09:05 Simberto wrote:
I don't think the xDauntian "America strong! America fight everyone! Everyone must give America what America wants! Even if it is a ridiculous waste of money like a random wall! America strong!" - policy is very reasonable in the long run. You might be able to force some concessions out of some people in the short run (At best, i don't even think you will get that much of that done), but in the long run, having everyone around you hate you will eventually backfire. I'm not going to give away the secret end game but it does involve leading by example. Until then we have staunch trade alliances with UK,India and Canada with a military alliance to Russia. You should be more concerned with how is germany is going to deal with the end of globalism and find ways we can all work together diplomatically. Working together diplomatically is literally what's being thrown under the bus at the moment. As for the secret end game - there is no alternative to globalism. It's either globalism or extinction. Today's troubles will seem like nothing if Trump and the neonationalists are not opposed. It was the mexican president who refused to come to the table diplomatically. Working together on immigration, gangs, drugs, human trafficking and trade needs to be done now or society will cease to function as automation increases. Illegal immigrants draw wealth out of countries, increases the wealth inequality of a society, drains resources out of the federal government as illegals do not pay taxes.I hear Trump plans to give amnesty to dreamers but understand the old ways of crony capitalism using illegal workers(slaves) is coming to an end. Same should be said about prisoners working for 12 cents an hour, it all needs to end! Now i know the problems in mexico are attributed to the united states(CIA) using them as a narco state for drugs and human trafficking. But trump is reversing that as the alternative is anarchy and the death of both USA and mexico. So you bet your ass we are going to try and save this planet again like we did at WW2 with UK/USA and Russia at the helm even if we have to take you all kicking and screaming. As for germany leading the EU to disaster i dont know what to do about them. Inviting mass migrants has been nothing but trouble and will only get worse as time goes on.
I don't mean to diminish the problems any of the topics you are addressing in regards to gangs, drugs, human trafficking, or immigration, but Trump is literally making every single one of these problems (except for gangs, maybe?) worse in the short term. First off, by bullying allies, less progress will be made. Already, CIA officials are worrying whether their allies will keep sharing information with them under a Trump administration who is friendly with Russia. This increases problems in human trafficking and drug trade. Not to mention that drug trade is only made worse by the irrational war on drugs, not better, and Trump is showing no signs of understanding the issue beyond the flawed narrative that the wall will somehow keep stuff out, when it's currently catapulted over or shipped by self-made submarines. No progress will be made in decreasing a drug epidemic if drug addiction is treated like a moral failing instead of a disease.
More harsh methods being used and advocated by the police will lead to more social unrest, and thus, to more resistance against the police.
Neo-nationalism gives absolutely no answers as to restructuring the domestic economy, and Trump has proposed tax cuts on the rich, with his cabinet of bankers specifically. May has floated the idea of a neo-thatcherian tax haven. Hardly decreasing the social inequality the way Sweden does, which is a heavily integrated and globally involved country. They are also not solving automation by decreasing taxes on the factories that heavily invest in automation like Carrier does.
Your claim that illegal immigrants lead to a decrease in wealth is highly contested, and the claim that illegals do not pay taxes, also appears to be false. The unrest against immigration comes from a weakening middle class (bad, but solvable through far less radical methods) and (in my opinion) from an inability to see a non-simplified bigger picture in a long term time frame. I have not seen anyone on the right talk about how greater global stability is highly profitable for the global economy, and how immigration, while decreasing social cohesion, serves as a vent for instability in a more volatile region. Accepting refugees is in everyone's self interest as long as the receiver country can adequately support them. Admittedly, my perception of ability to support seems to be widely divergent from the general public's gauging of the matter, but taking in refugees is something we should be proud of.
Trump is already undermining the institutions that provide global stability. if there will be anarchy, it will be because of Trump and Russia, most likely, not in spite of them. If you want to see stability Russian style, take a look at Chechnya or the DNR with their roaming gangs of warlords and massive black markets. The UN and NATO also serve as pressure reduction, because they can be blamed when stuff goes bad instead of member countries. This makes a reduction of UN funding extremely dangerous.
If you want to help Europe, don't undermine it's stability or the EU. Don't drag them "kicking and screaming". Engage them and promote them. Trump is doing the opposite.
EDIT: Oh, and diplomatic protests have been made for far less grievous slights. Putting the blame on the victim of bullying is of course not new to this thread, but I think you are misrepresenting the situation. Would you want your president spend money you don't have on something that's a useless vanity project as well as a international humiliation? Save the planet by not seeing your allies as your enemies.
|
On January 27 2017 09:59 Noidberg wrote:Show nested quote +On January 27 2017 09:32 mustaju wrote:On January 27 2017 09:19 Noidberg wrote:On January 27 2017 09:05 Simberto wrote:
I don't think the xDauntian "America strong! America fight everyone! Everyone must give America what America wants! Even if it is a ridiculous waste of money like a random wall! America strong!" - policy is very reasonable in the long run. You might be able to force some concessions out of some people in the short run (At best, i don't even think you will get that much of that done), but in the long run, having everyone around you hate you will eventually backfire. I'm not going to give away the secret end game but it does involve leading by example. Until then we have staunch trade alliances with UK,India and Canada with a military alliance to Russia. You should be more concerned with how is germany is going to deal with the end of globalism and find ways we can all work together diplomatically. Working together diplomatically is literally what's being thrown under the bus at the moment. As for the secret end game - there is no alternative to globalism. It's either globalism or extinction. Today's troubles will seem like nothing if Trump and the neonationalists are not opposed. It was the mexican president who refused to come to the table diplomatically.
He doesn´t have much of a choice, that wall is an insult to mexico. There simply is no way that they can even talk while a topic might be actually paying for it even IF it somehow was in mexicos interests.
On January 27 2017 09:59 Noidberg wrote:
Working together on immigration, gangs, drugs, human trafficking and trade needs to be done now or society will cease to function as automation increases. Illegal immigrants draw wealth out of countries, increases the wealth inequality of a society, drains resources out of the federal government as illegals do not pay taxes.I hear Trump plans to give amnesty to dreamers but understand the old ways of crony capitalism using illegal workers(slaves) is coming to an end. Same should be said about prisoners working for 12 cents an hour, it all needs to end!
I´m actually predicting that prisoners will be the ones to actually build that wall but feel free to feel smug if that doesn´t happen.
On January 27 2017 09:59 Noidberg wrote:
Now i know the problems in mexico are attributed to the united states(CIA) using them as a narco state for drugs and human trafficking. But trump is reversing that as the alternative is anarchy and the death of both USA and mexico. So you bet your ass we are going to try and save this planet again like we did at WW2 with UK/USA and Russia at the helm even if we have to take you all kicking and screaming.
Outside of Trump liking the kind of "democracy" Putin has in Russia there don´t seem too much overlap between the interests of US, UK and Russia. Also even in the "good old days" of WW2 the end of the war fluidly transitioned straight into the Cold War.
On January 27 2017 09:59 Noidberg wrote:
As for germany leading the EU to disaster i dont know what to do about them. Inviting mass migrants has been nothing but trouble and will only get worse as time goes on.
Thats a flat out imagination. The immigration situation has been extragated ridicilously for anti-immigration political capital.
|
On January 27 2017 09:59 Noidberg wrote:Show nested quote +On January 27 2017 09:32 mustaju wrote:On January 27 2017 09:19 Noidberg wrote:On January 27 2017 09:05 Simberto wrote:
I don't think the xDauntian "America strong! America fight everyone! Everyone must give America what America wants! Even if it is a ridiculous waste of money like a random wall! America strong!" - policy is very reasonable in the long run. You might be able to force some concessions out of some people in the short run (At best, i don't even think you will get that much of that done), but in the long run, having everyone around you hate you will eventually backfire. I'm not going to give away the secret end game but it does involve leading by example. Until then we have staunch trade alliances with UK,India and Canada with a military alliance to Russia. You should be more concerned with how is germany is going to deal with the end of globalism and find ways we can all work together diplomatically. Working together diplomatically is literally what's being thrown under the bus at the moment. As for the secret end game - there is no alternative to globalism. It's either globalism or extinction. Today's troubles will seem like nothing if Trump and the neonationalists are not opposed. ...trump is reversing that as the alternative is anarchy and the death of both USA and mexico. So you bet your ass we are going to try and save this planet again like we did at WW2 with UK/USA and Russia at the helm even if we have to take you all kicking and screaming.
Don't you see how ridiculous you sound? "The death of both US and mexico." That doesn't even make sense, Mexico's
projected to be a top 5 economy, the US isn't going anywhere. The wall is completely unnecessary and ineffective. It will basically be a monument to American stupidity.
"Like we did during* WW2." So you mean make the planet great again by invading Europe? I also don't get why you're so pro-Russia. Putin's gonna save the world with Trump at his side? Where do you get these ideas?
|
Here is the Canadian perspective on Trump's assault on Mexico:
Canada will focus on preserving its U.S. trade ties during talks to renegotiate NAFTA and may not be able to help Mexico avoid being targeted by the Trump administration, Canadian government sources say.
"We love our Mexican friends. But our national interests come first and the friendship comes second," a source said on the sidelines of a cabinet retreat in Calgary, Alberta.
"The two are not mutually exclusive," the source added.
The comments are some of the starkest yet by Canadian officials, who are increasingly convinced Mexico will suffer the most damage from changes to the North American Free Trade Agreement.
U.S. President Donald Trump on Sunday said he planned talks soon to begin renegotiating NAFTA, under which Canada and Mexico send most of their exports to the United States.
The Canadian sources stress Ottawa has not taken any final decision on how to approach the NAFTA talks, since Trump's opening stance is largely unknown.
The government dismisses the idea that Canada will formally abandon Mexico. Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland said on Tuesday that Canada supported NAFTA as a trilateral agreement and noted that Trudeau had talked to Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto over the weekend.
That said, the government sources note Mexico and Canada would appear to have little in common. Trump is unhappy about the large U.S. deficit with Mexico and has promised to punish firms with manufacturing bases there.
"Our negotiating positions are totally different. Mexico is being hung out of an skyscraper window by its feet," said a second government source.
"Mexico is in a terrible, terrible position. We are not," said another Canadian person involved on the trade file.
Officials familiar with diplomatic contacts between Mexico and Canada say there has been no talk of creating a joint front against the United States over NAFTA on the grounds that such a move would raise tensions and be counterproductive.
Bilateral trade is critical for Canada, which sends 75 percent of its exports to the United States. Statistics Canada data for 2015 show two-way trade in goods with the United States totaled C$760 billion ($580 billion) compared to just C$26 billion with Mexico.
Canada has a "very special status" and is unlikely to be hit hard by changes to NAFTA, the head of a business advisory council to Trump said on Monday.
Derek Burney, a former Canadian ambassador to Washington, told CTV News on Monday that Canada should distance itself from Mexico on NAFTA.
"We have security agreements, both continental and multi-lateral -- Mexico does not. Mexico has a huge border problem with the United States in terms of immigration and drugs -- Canada does not," he said.
Source.
So does anyone really still doubt that Trump is doing the right thing for the US by going after Mexico so hard? I'm not seeing much to support the endless apologism of some Americans for Mexico.
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
