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Read the rules in the OP before posting, please.

In order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a re-read to refresh your memory! The vast majority of you are contributing in a healthy way, keep it up!

NOTE: When providing a source, explain why you feel it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion if it's not obvious.
Also take note that unsubstantiated tweets/posts meant only to rekindle old arguments can result in a mod action.
Acrofales
Profile Joined August 2010
Spain18134 Posts
January 20 2017 07:59 GMT
#131941
On January 20 2017 09:38 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
So this is who bought the downed US Stealth plane that crashed during the Serbian conflict, only took them almost 20 years to reverse engineer it... Only country that should worry about this is Russia.

Show nested quote +
The Sharp Sword UAV (unmanned aerial vehicle), China's stealthy attack drone, just won second place in the National Science and Technology Advancement Prizes. Considering the secrecy surrounding stealth drones to come out of China—there are relatively few photos of the Sharp Sword available, particularly as opposed to, say, the J-20 fighter—the Sharp Sword's victory is pretty noteworthy. The drone, known as "Lijian" in Mandarin Chinese, is being paraded as a huge win for Chinese aviation technology. And it is.

The Sharp Sword is the first non-NATO stealthy unmanned combat aerial vehicle (UCAV). Built by Aviation Industry Corporation of China, with much of the work done by the Hongdu Aviation Industry Group, the Sharp Sword first flew in November 2013. Looking a bit like a mini-B-2 flying wing bomber, the UCAV has two internal bomb bays and a likely payload of about 4,400 pounds. Its engine is a non-afterburning WS-13 turbofan engine, with serpentine inlet to hide the engine from enemy radars (the first Sharp Sword does not use a stealthy nozzle due to its technology demonstrator status). It has a length of about 33 feet, and a wingspan of about 46 feet.

Other similar foreign systems include the American X-47B, the British Taranis, and the French Neuron. Stealthy UCAVs have a number of advantages over their manned counterparts: they can fit the same internal payload onto a smaller airframe, and have much longer ranges, in addition to the typical advantages of unmanned aerial vehicles, like longer flight times.

Reporting from the Chinese Internet suggests that a second, even stealthier Sharp Sword began flying last year (with a stealthy engine). If flight testing with the prototypes goes as well as the initial flight tests did with the first airframe, the Sharp Sword could enter service as early as 2019-2020.

Initially, it's believed that the Sharp Sword will be used for reconnaissance in areas with dense air defense networks, as well as tailing foreign warships. As the Chinese develops a familiarity with the Sharp Sword, it could be used for combat operations as a "first through the door" weapon against highly defended, high-value targets, as well as an aerial tanker for other drones and carrier aircraft (akin to plans for the U.S. MQ-25). There is even the possibility of carrier version for China's planned next generation of catapult equipped aircraft carriers.

Eventually, advances in distributed systems and artificial intelligence could help the Sharp Sword be a robotic wingman to manned aircraft in an unmanned/manned operational concept. It could even take on autonomous missions of its own.


Source


I don't know enough about that incident, but don't you think China is capable of coming up with their own stealth tech?
mustaju
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
Estonia4504 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-01-20 10:07:33
January 20 2017 09:17 GMT
#131942
On January 20 2017 13:58 LegalLord wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 20 2017 13:06 Karis Vas Ryaar wrote:
Also I'm not sure I like the whole let Russia take Estonia thing. I mean I get the reasoning but then Russia will just take another country, and so on and so on (possibly all the way to Poland). I don't know what the proper response would be but there needs to be something substantial.

I think the point is, "don't start a nuclear war over Estonia," not that you should just let it happen.

In any case, it's probably a moot point - Russia doesn't really want Estonia all that much. They might be willing to fuck with it for the political equivalent of funsies but ain't no one want to administrate that shit and pay for its upkeep. It's not Crimea by a longshot.

I am so glad you understand what that maniac is thinking, even as his incursions and opportunism have shown people like you consistently wrong. What is the point of Eastern Ukraine upkeep? Maintaining Abkhazia and South-Ossetia? What is the strategic importance of these places? And what makes people want to pay for Crimea in your opinion that could not equivalently be applied to the justification of being an empire again? Paying upkeep for a million people to destroy NATO and gloat over the remains of American credibility sounds like a pretty sweet deal to some people. Especially if you can do away with the troublesome ones. You show yourself as remarkably short sighted here, it's astounding, not to say disturbing

Transactionalism is not just morally bankrupt but also highly unstable. Why would anyone want to make deals with someone who throws their allies under a bus and has been proven to be a serial liar? Trust is something that does not carry a price tag, and it pains me that so many people do not seem to take that into account.
WriterBrows somewhat high. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ndFysO2JunE
Acrofales
Profile Joined August 2010
Spain18134 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-01-20 09:34:47
January 20 2017 09:33 GMT
#131943
Did I just read that Trump wants to emulate all the great leaders like Stalin, Franco and Castro with huge military parades to show off the size of his pen... errr, army. Colour me surprised.
Biff The Understudy
Profile Blog Joined February 2008
France7922 Posts
January 20 2017 11:06 GMT
#131944
On January 20 2017 18:33 Acrofales wrote:
Did I just read that Trump wants to emulate all the great leaders like Stalin, Franco and Castro with huge military parades to show off the size of his pen... errr, army. Colour me surprised.

We do this shit in France every year. Usually we invite some african dictators to watch with the president. It's a national disgrace.
The fellow who is out to burn things up is the counterpart of the fool who thinks he can save the world. The world needs neither to be burned up nor to be saved. The world is, we are. Transients, if we buck it; here to stay if we accept it. ~H.Miller
OtherWorld
Profile Blog Joined October 2013
France17333 Posts
January 20 2017 11:28 GMT
#131945
On January 20 2017 20:06 Biff The Understudy wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 20 2017 18:33 Acrofales wrote:
Did I just read that Trump wants to emulate all the great leaders like Stalin, Franco and Castro with huge military parades to show off the size of his pen... errr, army. Colour me surprised.

We do this shit in France every year. Usually we invite some african dictators to watch with the president. It's a national disgrace.

Yeah, and it's particularly surprising in a country that's usually so shy of showing open nationalism. I'm actually surprised huge military parades are not a common thing in the USA already.
Used Sigs - New Sigs - Cheap Sigs - Buy the Best Cheap Sig near You at www.cheapsigforsale.com
DarkPlasmaBall
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States45106 Posts
January 20 2017 11:59 GMT
#131946
On January 20 2017 09:05 xDaunt wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 20 2017 07:46 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:
On January 20 2017 05:11 xDaunt wrote:
On January 20 2017 04:57 crms wrote:
On January 20 2017 04:27 LegalLord wrote:
On January 20 2017 04:09 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:
On January 20 2017 03:54 Nevuk wrote:
On January 20 2017 03:52 crms wrote:
What are the chances of trumps appointments being confirmed? So far all the hearings seem to have been mostly disasters. There is absolutely noway Devos could be confirmed, right?

They're at about 100%. The only way Devos won't be confirmed is if her name is withdrawn, as she's a major GOP donor.


Agreed, sadly. Senate confirms these nominees with a simple majority, and the Republicans have a majority of the seats. A few Republicans (3 or so?) would have to flip their vote, which probably won't happen.

I expect Rubio, McCain, and Graham to huff and puff about Russia, realize Tillerson isn't really a Russian shill, and get on board, a few Democrats to huff and puff about Sessions but fail to convince any Republicans to break rank, while all the others pass without any fanfare.

That's such a sad state of affairs. Some of these appointments, politics aside, are wildly unfit. :/

Why is it a sad state of affairs? Despite all of the nonsense to the contrary from his political opponents, Trump had some very clear policy planks to his campaign and his nominations are in furtherance of those polices. What was it that Obama said? Something along the lines of "Elections have consequences"? To his credit (and I wasn't sure that he'd do this), Trump actually appears to be following through on his campaign promises. Let's see where it goes.


Out of curiosity, do you think Betsy DeVos is qualified to be Secretary of Education? (And did you watch her hearing/ hear her answers?) Because I hear responses like "She was nominated because she agrees with Trump" and that may be true, but that's very different than her being qualified.

I haven't looked at her record in detail or watched the confirmation hearing, but given her extensive history of working with education-related nonprofits at the state and national level, she probably is qualified.


Unfortunately, simply giving money to promote certain beliefs doesn't automatically imply qualification. Giving money to businesses that are promoting school choice or charter schools, which is what she does, doesn't mean she understands education or schools. During her hearing, she was afforded the opportunity to demonstrate even the most basic knowledge of American schools, American education, and popular educational arguments, and she failed miserably. It's not even that she made arguments that I disagreed with; it's that she had no idea what any kind of argument on any side of the issues would even look like. She dodged every question (except for the one where she admitted that Trump bragged about sexually assaulting women). For example, she wasn't able to give any sort of answer about guns in school (except that they could stop a grizzly bear), nor could she say anything meaningful about the very popular Proficiency vs. Growth student assessment controversy. When it came to topics like assault or students with disabilities, all she did is state she was concerned, but couldn't elaborate or answer direct questions.

She has absolutely no experience as an educator, educational supervisor, or public school related anything (neither she nor her children ever even attended one). She has never had to learn about financial aid or student loans or grants, and showed a dearth of understanding in all of these issues, be it K-12 or college related. She's just a born-rich businesswoman who agrees with Trump on some things. On the other hand, our current Secretary of Education, John King Jr., has a Master's and Doctorate of Education and was an actual teacher and the New York State Education Commissioner, among many other education-related accomplishments.

Betsy DeVos is definitely unqualified.
"There is nothing more satisfying than looking at a crowd of people and helping them get what I love." ~Day[9] Daily #100
farvacola
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
United States18839 Posts
January 20 2017 13:18 GMT
#131947
There's also her lobbying track record here in Michigan. The article is exhaustive, so please read beyond what's posted here.

In Detroit, parents of school-age children have plenty of choices, thanks to the nation’s largest urban network of charter schools.

What remains in short supply is quality.

In Brightmoor, the only high school left is Detroit Community Schools, a charter boasting more than a decade of abysmal test scores and, until recently, a superintendent who earned $130,000 a year despite a dearth of educational experience or credentials.

On the west side, another charter school, Hope Academy, has been serving the community around Grand River and Livernois for 20 years. Its test scores have been among the lowest in the state throughout those two decades; in 2013 the school ranked in the first percentile, the absolute bottom for academic performance. Two years later, its charter was renewed.

Or if you live downtown, you could try Woodward Academy, a charter that has limped along near the bottom of school achievement since 1998, while its operator has been allowed to expand into other communities.

For students enrolled in schools of choice — that is, schools in nearby districts who have opened their doors to children who live outside district boundaries — it’s not much better. Kids who depend on Detroit’s problematic public transit are too far away from the state’s top-performing school districts — and most of those districts don’t participate in the schools of choice program, anyway.

This deeply dysfunctional educational landscape — where failure is rewarded with opportunities for expansion and “choice” means the opposite for tens of thousands of children — is no accident. It was created by an ideological lobby that has zealously championed free-market education reform for decades, with little regard for the outcome.

And at the center of that lobby is Betsy DeVos, the west Michigan advocate whose family has contributed millions of dollars to the cause of school choice and unregulated charter expansion throughout Michigan.

Unqualified

President-elect Donald Trump has made a number of controversial cabinet nominations already. But none seems more inappropriate, or more contrary to reason, than his choice of DeVos to lead the Department of Education.

DeVos isn’t an educator, or an education leader. She’s not an expert in pedagogy or curriculum or school governance. In fact, she has no relevant credentials or experience for a job setting standards and guiding dollars for the nation’s public schools.

She is, in essence, a lobbyist — someone who has used her extraordinary wealth to influence the conversation about education reform, and to bend that conversation to her ideological convictions despite the dearth of evidence supporting them...

...Supporters call Betsy DeVos an "advocate" who cares for children. And she may be that.

But the policy expression of that concern has been one-sided, and as much about establishing an industry as it is about kids.

The DeVoses have helped private interests commandeer public money that was intended to fulfill the state's mandate to provide compulsory education. The family started the Great Lakes Education Project, whose political action committee does the most prolific and aggressive lobbying for charter schools.

Betsy DeVos and other family members have given more than $2 million to the PAC since 2001. GLEP has spent that money essentially buying policy outcomes that have helped Michigan's charter industry grow while shielding it from accountability.

This summer, the DeVos family contributed $1.45 million over two months — an astounding average of $25,000 a day — to Michigan GOP lawmakers and the state party after the Republican-led Legislature derailed a bipartisan provision that would have provided more charter school oversight in Detroit.

GLEP also pushed hard — and successfully — to lift the cap on charter schools a few years ago, even though Michigan already had among the highest number of charters in the nation despite statistics suggesting charters weren't substantively outperforming traditional public schools.

And in 2000, the DeVos extended family spent $5.6 million on an unsuccessful campaign to amend Michigan's constitution to allow school vouchers — the only choice tool not currently in play in Michigan.

Even if Betsy DeVos ceased her substantial contributions to pro-school choice lawmakers, or to GLEP’s PAC, what credibility would she have in a policy job that requires her to be an advocate for all schools? Would her family divest from the PAC if she were Secretary of Education? Rein in campaign spending? And even if it did, how could she credibly distance herself from her history as a lobbyist?


Link
"when the Dead Kennedys found out they had skinhead fans, they literally wrote a song titled 'Nazi Punks Fuck Off'"
zatic
Profile Blog Joined September 2007
Zurich15355 Posts
January 20 2017 13:38 GMT
#131948
On January 20 2017 18:33 Acrofales wrote:
Did I just read that Trump wants to emulate all the great leaders like Stalin, Franco and Castro with huge military parades to show off the size of his pen... errr, army. Colour me surprised.

Nothing better for a documentary 50 years from now than a shot of Trump saluting tanks rolling down Pennsylvenia Avenue next week.
ModeratorI know Teamliquid is known as a massive building
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United States13779 Posts
January 20 2017 14:53 GMT
#131949
On January 20 2017 18:17 mustaju wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 20 2017 13:58 LegalLord wrote:
On January 20 2017 13:06 Karis Vas Ryaar wrote:
Also I'm not sure I like the whole let Russia take Estonia thing. I mean I get the reasoning but then Russia will just take another country, and so on and so on (possibly all the way to Poland). I don't know what the proper response would be but there needs to be something substantial.

I think the point is, "don't start a nuclear war over Estonia," not that you should just let it happen.

In any case, it's probably a moot point - Russia doesn't really want Estonia all that much. They might be willing to fuck with it for the political equivalent of funsies but ain't no one want to administrate that shit and pay for its upkeep. It's not Crimea by a longshot.

I am so glad you understand what that maniac is thinking, even as his incursions and opportunism have shown people like you consistently wrong. What is the point of Eastern Ukraine upkeep? Maintaining Abkhazia and South-Ossetia? What is the strategic importance of these places? And what makes people want to pay for Crimea in your opinion that could not equivalently be applied to the justification of being an empire again? Paying upkeep for a million people to destroy NATO and gloat over the remains of American credibility sounds like a pretty sweet deal to some people. Especially if you can do away with the troublesome ones. You show yourself as remarkably short sighted here, it's astounding, not to say disturbing

Transactionalism is not just morally bankrupt but also highly unstable. Why would anyone want to make deals with someone who throws their allies under a bus and has been proven to be a serial liar? Trust is something that does not carry a price tag, and it pains me that so many people do not seem to take that into account.

I could answer every single one of your objections here, but I can't say that it would be very productive to do so, given that you seem to have an emotional statement of your unyielding disdain for all things Russian rather than any logical perspective on what actually happened.

Starting with "that maniac" isn't a great way to have any productive discourse on the matter and you know it.
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United States13779 Posts
January 20 2017 15:01 GMT
#131950
On January 20 2017 22:38 zatic wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 20 2017 18:33 Acrofales wrote:
Did I just read that Trump wants to emulate all the great leaders like Stalin, Franco and Castro with huge military parades to show off the size of his pen... errr, army. Colour me surprised.

Nothing better for a documentary 50 years from now than a shot of Trump saluting tanks rolling down Pennsylvenia Avenue next week.

The symbolic value of such a parade highly depends on the country and how it's done. In the US, given its historical position as a nation of rebels, it would send the wrong message. "Look at how mighty our military force is" just doesn't have the same effect that it would in certain other countries that do it. Besides, US is more about airplanes and boats than it is about tanks and ground troops.

Though as precedent, I would cite Theodore Roosevelt parading the Great White Fleet around the world to demonstrate how mighty America's naval penis was.
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
mustaju
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
Estonia4504 Posts
January 20 2017 15:09 GMT
#131951
On January 20 2017 23:53 LegalLord wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 20 2017 18:17 mustaju wrote:
On January 20 2017 13:58 LegalLord wrote:
On January 20 2017 13:06 Karis Vas Ryaar wrote:
Also I'm not sure I like the whole let Russia take Estonia thing. I mean I get the reasoning but then Russia will just take another country, and so on and so on (possibly all the way to Poland). I don't know what the proper response would be but there needs to be something substantial.

I think the point is, "don't start a nuclear war over Estonia," not that you should just let it happen.

In any case, it's probably a moot point - Russia doesn't really want Estonia all that much. They might be willing to fuck with it for the political equivalent of funsies but ain't no one want to administrate that shit and pay for its upkeep. It's not Crimea by a longshot.

I am so glad you understand what that maniac is thinking, even as his incursions and opportunism have shown people like you consistently wrong. What is the point of Eastern Ukraine upkeep? Maintaining Abkhazia and South-Ossetia? What is the strategic importance of these places? And what makes people want to pay for Crimea in your opinion that could not equivalently be applied to the justification of being an empire again? Paying upkeep for a million people to destroy NATO and gloat over the remains of American credibility sounds like a pretty sweet deal to some people. Especially if you can do away with the troublesome ones. You show yourself as remarkably short sighted here, it's astounding, not to say disturbing

Transactionalism is not just morally bankrupt but also highly unstable. Why would anyone want to make deals with someone who throws their allies under a bus and has been proven to be a serial liar? Trust is something that does not carry a price tag, and it pains me that so many people do not seem to take that into account.

I could answer every single one of your objections here, but I can't say that it would be very productive to do so, given that you seem to have an emotional statement of your unyielding disdain for all things Russian rather than any logical perspective on what actually happened.

Starting with "that maniac" isn't a great way to have any productive discourse on the matter and you know it.

Stop acting like you have a moral high ground after calling my country "shit". This is a rather serious issue, and you keep acting as if it was a simple trade transaction. Outrage is a completely appropriate reaction to your flippancy.
WriterBrows somewhat high. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ndFysO2JunE
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United States13779 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-01-20 15:38:32
January 20 2017 15:35 GMT
#131952
On January 21 2017 00:09 mustaju wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 20 2017 23:53 LegalLord wrote:
On January 20 2017 18:17 mustaju wrote:
On January 20 2017 13:58 LegalLord wrote:
On January 20 2017 13:06 Karis Vas Ryaar wrote:
Also I'm not sure I like the whole let Russia take Estonia thing. I mean I get the reasoning but then Russia will just take another country, and so on and so on (possibly all the way to Poland). I don't know what the proper response would be but there needs to be something substantial.

I think the point is, "don't start a nuclear war over Estonia," not that you should just let it happen.

In any case, it's probably a moot point - Russia doesn't really want Estonia all that much. They might be willing to fuck with it for the political equivalent of funsies but ain't no one want to administrate that shit and pay for its upkeep. It's not Crimea by a longshot.

I am so glad you understand what that maniac is thinking, even as his incursions and opportunism have shown people like you consistently wrong. What is the point of Eastern Ukraine upkeep? Maintaining Abkhazia and South-Ossetia? What is the strategic importance of these places? And what makes people want to pay for Crimea in your opinion that could not equivalently be applied to the justification of being an empire again? Paying upkeep for a million people to destroy NATO and gloat over the remains of American credibility sounds like a pretty sweet deal to some people. Especially if you can do away with the troublesome ones. You show yourself as remarkably short sighted here, it's astounding, not to say disturbing

Transactionalism is not just morally bankrupt but also highly unstable. Why would anyone want to make deals with someone who throws their allies under a bus and has been proven to be a serial liar? Trust is something that does not carry a price tag, and it pains me that so many people do not seem to take that into account.

I could answer every single one of your objections here, but I can't say that it would be very productive to do so, given that you seem to have an emotional statement of your unyielding disdain for all things Russian rather than any logical perspective on what actually happened.

Starting with "that maniac" isn't a great way to have any productive discourse on the matter and you know it.

Stop acting like you have a moral high ground after calling my country "shit". This is a rather serious issue, and you keep acting as if it was a simple trade transaction. Outrage is a completely appropriate reaction to your flippancy.

Oh, I see. Let me just explain the expression to you then, since I assume this is a matter of not understanding an English-language expression (I would say it's a fair assumption that English isn't your first language).

The expression as I used it - "no one wants to administrate that shit and pay for its upkeep" - roughly means, "no one really wants to go through the trouble of having to deal with the costs of administration and upkeep" rather than, "no one wants to administrate that shitty ass country" which is what I'm guessing you thought I was saying. In this context, "that shit" doesn't refer to the country but to the situation of having to administrate the country.
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
Krikkitone
Profile Joined April 2009
United States1451 Posts
January 20 2017 15:45 GMT
#131953
On January 21 2017 00:09 mustaju wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 20 2017 23:53 LegalLord wrote:
On January 20 2017 18:17 mustaju wrote:
On January 20 2017 13:58 LegalLord wrote:
On January 20 2017 13:06 Karis Vas Ryaar wrote:
Also I'm not sure I like the whole let Russia take Estonia thing. I mean I get the reasoning but then Russia will just take another country, and so on and so on (possibly all the way to Poland). I don't know what the proper response would be but there needs to be something substantial.

I think the point is, "don't start a nuclear war over Estonia," not that you should just let it happen.

In any case, it's probably a moot point - Russia doesn't really want Estonia all that much. They might be willing to fuck with it for the political equivalent of funsies but ain't no one want to administrate that shit and pay for its upkeep. It's not Crimea by a longshot.

I am so glad you understand what that maniac is thinking, even as his incursions and opportunism have shown people like you consistently wrong. What is the point of Eastern Ukraine upkeep? Maintaining Abkhazia and South-Ossetia? What is the strategic importance of these places? And what makes people want to pay for Crimea in your opinion that could not equivalently be applied to the justification of being an empire again? Paying upkeep for a million people to destroy NATO and gloat over the remains of American credibility sounds like a pretty sweet deal to some people. Especially if you can do away with the troublesome ones. You show yourself as remarkably short sighted here, it's astounding, not to say disturbing

Transactionalism is not just morally bankrupt but also highly unstable. Why would anyone want to make deals with someone who throws their allies under a bus and has been proven to be a serial liar? Trust is something that does not carry a price tag, and it pains me that so many people do not seem to take that into account.

I could answer every single one of your objections here, but I can't say that it would be very productive to do so, given that you seem to have an emotional statement of your unyielding disdain for all things Russian rather than any logical perspective on what actually happened.

Starting with "that maniac" isn't a great way to have any productive discourse on the matter and you know it.

Stop acting like you have a moral high ground after calling my country "shit". This is a rather serious issue, and you keep acting as if it was a simple trade transaction. Outrage is a completely appropriate reaction to your flippancy.


I think the idea of the new world order is that
-America (and other nuclear powers) won't work to interfere with a nuclear power (see Iraq and Libya v. N. Korea)
-America won't defend a country against another nuclear power (see Ukraine, South China Sea)

ergo.. all countries that wish to remain sovereign need to be nuclear. (see Ukraine) If Estonia wishes to defend itself from Russia it need to withdraw from the Non Proliferation Treaty like N. Korea, and get a dozen nukes.
(once enough other countries like Japan, Saudi Arabia, S. Korea, Iran, Egypt, Poland, Ukraine, start withdrawing it won't be a outcast club)

I don't particularly like this idea, but honestly since the 50s nuclear weapons=national sovereignty, lack of them means you are a vassal state.
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United States13779 Posts
January 20 2017 15:47 GMT
#131954
Any country that tries to get nukes now will be an international pariah. If there is one thing that all the nuclear powers in the world agree on, it's that no one else can be allowed to have nuclear weapons.
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
Mohdoo
Profile Joined August 2007
United States15725 Posts
January 20 2017 15:50 GMT
#131955
On January 21 2017 00:45 Krikkitone wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 21 2017 00:09 mustaju wrote:
On January 20 2017 23:53 LegalLord wrote:
On January 20 2017 18:17 mustaju wrote:
On January 20 2017 13:58 LegalLord wrote:
On January 20 2017 13:06 Karis Vas Ryaar wrote:
Also I'm not sure I like the whole let Russia take Estonia thing. I mean I get the reasoning but then Russia will just take another country, and so on and so on (possibly all the way to Poland). I don't know what the proper response would be but there needs to be something substantial.

I think the point is, "don't start a nuclear war over Estonia," not that you should just let it happen.

In any case, it's probably a moot point - Russia doesn't really want Estonia all that much. They might be willing to fuck with it for the political equivalent of funsies but ain't no one want to administrate that shit and pay for its upkeep. It's not Crimea by a longshot.

I am so glad you understand what that maniac is thinking, even as his incursions and opportunism have shown people like you consistently wrong. What is the point of Eastern Ukraine upkeep? Maintaining Abkhazia and South-Ossetia? What is the strategic importance of these places? And what makes people want to pay for Crimea in your opinion that could not equivalently be applied to the justification of being an empire again? Paying upkeep for a million people to destroy NATO and gloat over the remains of American credibility sounds like a pretty sweet deal to some people. Especially if you can do away with the troublesome ones. You show yourself as remarkably short sighted here, it's astounding, not to say disturbing

Transactionalism is not just morally bankrupt but also highly unstable. Why would anyone want to make deals with someone who throws their allies under a bus and has been proven to be a serial liar? Trust is something that does not carry a price tag, and it pains me that so many people do not seem to take that into account.

I could answer every single one of your objections here, but I can't say that it would be very productive to do so, given that you seem to have an emotional statement of your unyielding disdain for all things Russian rather than any logical perspective on what actually happened.

Starting with "that maniac" isn't a great way to have any productive discourse on the matter and you know it.

Stop acting like you have a moral high ground after calling my country "shit". This is a rather serious issue, and you keep acting as if it was a simple trade transaction. Outrage is a completely appropriate reaction to your flippancy.


I think the idea of the new world order is that
-America (and other nuclear powers) won't work to interfere with a nuclear power (see Iraq and Libya v. N. Korea)
-America won't defend a country against another nuclear power (see Ukraine, South China Sea)


They would defend "actual" Europe. If Putin tried to snatch Finland and Sweden, the US would intervene. But at the end of the day, Russia really just doesn't have any reasonable cost:benefit prospects regarding taking over other countries right now.

Even going back to the Estonia example, Russia would face some serious economic consequences of taking over Estonia. Estonia would need to have some really, really big advantages to justify not only the responses from other countries (sanctions and other stuff), but also the resistance and money associated with keeping Estonia.

The way I see it is: The countries easiest for Russia to take are not worth it. The countries most beneficial for Russia to take are extremely well connected and/or powerful on their own. I really can't imagine a situation that would make a direct military takeover a net benefit to Russia.
mustaju
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
Estonia4504 Posts
January 20 2017 15:57 GMT
#131956
On January 21 2017 00:35 LegalLord wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 21 2017 00:09 mustaju wrote:
On January 20 2017 23:53 LegalLord wrote:
On January 20 2017 18:17 mustaju wrote:
On January 20 2017 13:58 LegalLord wrote:
On January 20 2017 13:06 Karis Vas Ryaar wrote:
Also I'm not sure I like the whole let Russia take Estonia thing. I mean I get the reasoning but then Russia will just take another country, and so on and so on (possibly all the way to Poland). I don't know what the proper response would be but there needs to be something substantial.

I think the point is, "don't start a nuclear war over Estonia," not that you should just let it happen.

In any case, it's probably a moot point - Russia doesn't really want Estonia all that much. They might be willing to fuck with it for the political equivalent of funsies but ain't no one want to administrate that shit and pay for its upkeep. It's not Crimea by a longshot.

I am so glad you understand what that maniac is thinking, even as his incursions and opportunism have shown people like you consistently wrong. What is the point of Eastern Ukraine upkeep? Maintaining Abkhazia and South-Ossetia? What is the strategic importance of these places? And what makes people want to pay for Crimea in your opinion that could not equivalently be applied to the justification of being an empire again? Paying upkeep for a million people to destroy NATO and gloat over the remains of American credibility sounds like a pretty sweet deal to some people. Especially if you can do away with the troublesome ones. You show yourself as remarkably short sighted here, it's astounding, not to say disturbing

Transactionalism is not just morally bankrupt but also highly unstable. Why would anyone want to make deals with someone who throws their allies under a bus and has been proven to be a serial liar? Trust is something that does not carry a price tag, and it pains me that so many people do not seem to take that into account.

I could answer every single one of your objections here, but I can't say that it would be very productive to do so, given that you seem to have an emotional statement of your unyielding disdain for all things Russian rather than any logical perspective on what actually happened.

Starting with "that maniac" isn't a great way to have any productive discourse on the matter and you know it.

Stop acting like you have a moral high ground after calling my country "shit". This is a rather serious issue, and you keep acting as if it was a simple trade transaction. Outrage is a completely appropriate reaction to your flippancy.

Oh, I see. Let me just explain the expression to you then, since I assume this is a matter of not understanding an English-language expression (I would say it's a fair assumption that English isn't your first language).

The expression as I used it - "no one wants to administrate that shit and pay for its upkeep" - roughly means, "no one really wants to go through the trouble of having to deal with the costs of administration and upkeep" rather than, "no one wants to administrate that shitty ass country" which is what I'm guessing you thought I was saying. In this context, "that shit" doesn't refer to the country but to the situation of having to administrate the country.

People said roughly similar things before WW1 and in the interbellum period, for context. Given how much money they have spent maintaining their current holdings, and the potential gain, the argument is not exactly bereft of logical deduction, as you want to make it seem. Being an international pariah is irrelevant to them, and given that whoever comes after Trump might reinstate the former system, I would not exclude the possibility as casually as you do.
WriterBrows somewhat high. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ndFysO2JunE
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United States13779 Posts
January 20 2017 15:58 GMT
#131957
Even if Russia were to take all of East Europe successfully without any retaliation, that would be little more than an expensive addition to its payroll.

I'd draw the analogy of Mexico: the US wouldn't bother to annex Mexico even though it probably could, because it's just more trouble than it's worth. But it would be pretty pissed if foreign nations came and set up anti-American alliances in Mexico.
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
mustaju
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
Estonia4504 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-01-20 16:15:43
January 20 2017 16:13 GMT
#131958
On January 21 2017 00:58 LegalLord wrote:
Even if Russia were to take all of East Europe successfully without any retaliation, that would be little more than an expensive addition to its payroll.

I'd draw the analogy of Mexico: the US wouldn't bother to annex Mexico even though it probably could, because it's just more trouble than it's worth. But it would be pretty pissed if foreign nations came and set up anti-American alliances in Mexico.

With the exception that they did it not once but several times. And the exception that in that analogy, Mexico, after being liberated, would ask foreign countries to help defending itself. Suddenly quite a different picture. But understandable, given the presumption that you have no academic background in studying the region. This leap of logic is quite common, especially in, funnily enough, Russia, and far less anywhere else!

NATO happens to be big deal. Not exactly just an "expensive addition."

@Mohdoo:
They would defend "actual" Europe. If Putin tried to snatch Finland and Sweden, the US would intervene. But at the end of the day, Russia really just doesn't have any reasonable cost:benefit prospects regarding taking over other countries right now.

Arguable. Finland is not in NATO. Neither is Sweden. Annexing them is easier, defence agreements wise, than NATO memebers like Estonia.
WriterBrows somewhat high. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ndFysO2JunE
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United States13779 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-01-20 16:47:30
January 20 2017 16:18 GMT
#131959
On January 21 2017 00:57 mustaju wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 21 2017 00:35 LegalLord wrote:
On January 21 2017 00:09 mustaju wrote:
On January 20 2017 23:53 LegalLord wrote:
On January 20 2017 18:17 mustaju wrote:
On January 20 2017 13:58 LegalLord wrote:
On January 20 2017 13:06 Karis Vas Ryaar wrote:
Also I'm not sure I like the whole let Russia take Estonia thing. I mean I get the reasoning but then Russia will just take another country, and so on and so on (possibly all the way to Poland). I don't know what the proper response would be but there needs to be something substantial.

I think the point is, "don't start a nuclear war over Estonia," not that you should just let it happen.

In any case, it's probably a moot point - Russia doesn't really want Estonia all that much. They might be willing to fuck with it for the political equivalent of funsies but ain't no one want to administrate that shit and pay for its upkeep. It's not Crimea by a longshot.

I am so glad you understand what that maniac is thinking, even as his incursions and opportunism have shown people like you consistently wrong. What is the point of Eastern Ukraine upkeep? Maintaining Abkhazia and South-Ossetia? What is the strategic importance of these places? And what makes people want to pay for Crimea in your opinion that could not equivalently be applied to the justification of being an empire again? Paying upkeep for a million people to destroy NATO and gloat over the remains of American credibility sounds like a pretty sweet deal to some people. Especially if you can do away with the troublesome ones. You show yourself as remarkably short sighted here, it's astounding, not to say disturbing

Transactionalism is not just morally bankrupt but also highly unstable. Why would anyone want to make deals with someone who throws their allies under a bus and has been proven to be a serial liar? Trust is something that does not carry a price tag, and it pains me that so many people do not seem to take that into account.

I could answer every single one of your objections here, but I can't say that it would be very productive to do so, given that you seem to have an emotional statement of your unyielding disdain for all things Russian rather than any logical perspective on what actually happened.

Starting with "that maniac" isn't a great way to have any productive discourse on the matter and you know it.

Stop acting like you have a moral high ground after calling my country "shit". This is a rather serious issue, and you keep acting as if it was a simple trade transaction. Outrage is a completely appropriate reaction to your flippancy.

Oh, I see. Let me just explain the expression to you then, since I assume this is a matter of not understanding an English-language expression (I would say it's a fair assumption that English isn't your first language).

The expression as I used it - "no one wants to administrate that shit and pay for its upkeep" - roughly means, "no one really wants to go through the trouble of having to deal with the costs of administration and upkeep" rather than, "no one wants to administrate that shitty ass country" which is what I'm guessing you thought I was saying. In this context, "that shit" doesn't refer to the country but to the situation of having to administrate the country.

People said roughly similar things before WW1 and in the interbellum period, for context. Given how much money they have spent maintaining their current holdings, and the potential gain, the argument is not exactly bereft of logical deduction, as you want to make it seem. Being an international pariah is irrelevant to them, and given that whoever comes after Trump might reinstate the former system, I would not exclude the possibility as casually as you do.

The real issue, though, is that in a lot of ways Russia has shifted its focus towards Asia more so than towards Europe. If Obama's administration had an "Asia pivot" in the works then Russia had the same idea. Europe is the place of "old money" and the one with the closest proximity to the currently developed European Russia. But look at which nations Russia has been fostering deeper ties with lately - Syria, Iran, China, Turkey, India, Pakistan, Japan, the Caucasus, and Central Asia. There's a lot more development to be done in East/Central Siberia than in European Russia, which is already quite developed.

Crimea was a strategic interest; wars have been fought over that peninsula so this is nothing new. From a naval perspective it's an extremely important island, worth the costs of developing it. Most other possible territories, not so much. Most of East Europe is a neighbor more so than an opportunity.

Economically, the "potential gain" is kind of moot - Ukraine, for example, is a basket case the magnitude of Greece but the size of Italy, and even the EU is loathe to truly take that upon itself in the way that full membership would entail. Yes, there are, "rebuild the USSR" imperialists remaining, but they're mostly a minority, because the consensus is mostly that as long as there aren't hostile troops on Russia's border, those nations really don't belong within some form of Russian empire.

On January 21 2017 01:13 mustaju wrote:
With the exception that they did it not once but several times.

So did most of Europe. Until recently Europe was a collection of imperial powers that kept taking shit they wanted.

On January 21 2017 01:13 mustaju wrote:
And the exception that in that analogy, Mexico, after being liberated, would ask foreign countries to help defending itself. Suddenly quite a different picture.

Not really, because the question is about how the US/Russia would react rather than how Mexico/EE would react. Though if we want, we could talk about that too, because "East Europe" isn't just one nation.

On January 21 2017 01:13 mustaju wrote:
But understandable, given the presumption that you have no academic background in studying the region. This leap of logic is quite common, especially in, funnily enough, Russia, and far less anywhere else!

NATO happens to be big deal. Not exactly just an "expensive addition."

I can see this is kind of personal for you, in a way that clouds your judgment and makes this discussion quite difficult to have in any productive manner.

I have read a fair bit of academic work, including from the Baltic folks, on the matter. To say that I disagree with their interpretation of events would be an understatement.
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
Doodsmack
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States7224 Posts
January 20 2017 16:35 GMT
#131960
On January 21 2017 00:47 LegalLord wrote:
Any country that tries to get nukes now will be an international pariah. If there is one thing that all the nuclear powers in the world agree on, it's that no one else can be allowed to have nuclear weapons.


There's an interesting quote from president trump.
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