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Read the rules in the OP before posting, please.In order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a re-read to refresh your memory! The vast majority of you are contributing in a healthy way, keep it up! NOTE: When providing a source, explain why you feel it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion if it's not obvious. Also take note that unsubstantiated tweets/posts meant only to rekindle old arguments can result in a mod action. |
On December 06 2016 03:05 zlefin wrote:xdaunt -> to me, it seems very rude of you to insist that so many don't even give trump an ounce of fairness; plenty have given him at least that much fairness imho. Oh, the irony....
On December 06 2016 03:05 zlefin wrote: Interesting to hear it claimed that the whole thing was intentional; or at least parts of it were.
Still not entirely convinced of that.
Trump campaigned on being more confrontational with China, he put it into the GOP platform, he appointed advisers that are pro-Taiwan, his staff say that the call was intentional, and the Taiwanese staff confirm that it was intentional, yet you still question whether it was intentional.
Yep, this is why I keep insisting that so many people don't give Trump an ounce of fairness. Y'all give me ample evidence that you're not.
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On December 06 2016 03:17 Leporello wrote: I gave Trump a chance. It lasted about 24 hours, though. Appointing a climate-change denier to lead the EPA was basically the first thing Trump did. "Drain the swamp!" Brought to you by Exxon-Mobil. This should make you feel better:
Former vice president Al Gore and Donald Trump met Monday to talk about climate change.
"I had a lengthy and very productive session with the president-elect. It was a sincere search for areas of common ground," Gore told reporters after the meeting at Trump Tower.
"I had a meeting beforehand with Ivanka Trump. The bulk of the time was with the president-elect, Donald Trump. I found it an extremely interesting conversation, and to be continued, and i'm just going to leave it at that," Gore continued. He had been scheduled to just meet with Trump's daughter and earlier in the morning Trump spokesman Jason Miller said Trump had no plans to meet with Gore.
The meeting came the same day The Guardian published an interview with Gore where he said that the threat of climate change is too pressing for people to “despair” over Trump’s election.
“My message would be that despair is just another form of denial. There is no time to despair. We don’t have time to lick our wounds, to hope for a different election outcome,” Gore wrote. “We have to win this struggle and we will win it; the only question is how fast we win. But more damaged is baked into the climate system every day, so it’s a race against time.”
Gore, the 2000 Democratic presidential nominee, was a recipient of the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize for his efforts in raising awareness of the dangers of climate change.
Trump has previously said that climate change is a hoax invented by the Chinese and vowed to cancel the Paris climate deal. After being elected president, though, he signaled at least some openness to modifying his views.
In a meeting with The New York Times last month, Trump said there is “some connectivity” related to humans and climate change.
Asked if he’d pull out of the Paris Climate deal, the president-elect said, “I’m going to take a look at it."
Politico recently reported that Ivanka Trump planned to focus on climate change during her father's presidency.
Source.
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United Kingdom13775 Posts
That said, I'm not sure I agree with the wisdom of an anti-China policy. It seems like more of the same short-sighted war games that the US has been fond of in recent times.
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On December 06 2016 03:19 LegalLord wrote: That said, I'm not sure I agree with the wisdom of an anti-China policy. It seems like more of the same short-sighted war games that the US has been fond of in recent times. Anti-China policy doesn't necessarily mean war with China. Frankly, Trump's trade war rhetoric is far less dangerous than Obama's brinkmanship in the South China Sea.
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On December 06 2016 03:19 xDaunt wrote:Show nested quote +On December 06 2016 03:17 Leporello wrote: I gave Trump a chance. It lasted about 24 hours, though. Appointing a climate-change denier to lead the EPA was basically the first thing Trump did. "Drain the swamp!" Brought to you by Exxon-Mobil. This should make you feel better: Show nested quote +Former vice president Al Gore and Donald Trump met Monday to talk about climate change.
"I had a lengthy and very productive session with the president-elect. It was a sincere search for areas of common ground," Gore told reporters after the meeting at Trump Tower.
"I had a meeting beforehand with Ivanka Trump. The bulk of the time was with the president-elect, Donald Trump. I found it an extremely interesting conversation, and to be continued, and i'm just going to leave it at that," Gore continued. He had been scheduled to just meet with Trump's daughter and earlier in the morning Trump spokesman Jason Miller said Trump had no plans to meet with Gore.
The meeting came the same day The Guardian published an interview with Gore where he said that the threat of climate change is too pressing for people to “despair” over Trump’s election.
“My message would be that despair is just another form of denial. There is no time to despair. We don’t have time to lick our wounds, to hope for a different election outcome,” Gore wrote. “We have to win this struggle and we will win it; the only question is how fast we win. But more damaged is baked into the climate system every day, so it’s a race against time.”
Gore, the 2000 Democratic presidential nominee, was a recipient of the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize for his efforts in raising awareness of the dangers of climate change.
Trump has previously said that climate change is a hoax invented by the Chinese and vowed to cancel the Paris climate deal. After being elected president, though, he signaled at least some openness to modifying his views.
In a meeting with The New York Times last month, Trump said there is “some connectivity” related to humans and climate change.
Asked if he’d pull out of the Paris Climate deal, the president-elect said, “I’m going to take a look at it."
Politico recently reported that Ivanka Trump planned to focus on climate change during her father's presidency. Source. Those are pretty words. Announcing a climate denier as head of the EPA is an action.
One speaks louder then the other.
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On December 06 2016 03:17 xDaunt wrote:Show nested quote +On December 06 2016 03:05 zlefin wrote:xdaunt -> to me, it seems very rude of you to insist that so many don't even give trump an ounce of fairness; plenty have given him at least that much fairness imho. Oh, the irony.... Show nested quote +On December 06 2016 03:05 zlefin wrote: Interesting to hear it claimed that the whole thing was intentional; or at least parts of it were.
Still not entirely convinced of that. Trump campaigned on being more confrontational with China, he put it into the GOP platform, he appointed advisers that are pro-Taiwan, his staff say that the call was intentional, and the Taiwanese staff confirm that it was intentional, yet you still question whether it was intentional. Yep, this is why I keep insisting that so many people don't give Trump an ounce of fairness. Y'all give me ample evidence that you're not. you are a liar. ample evidence has been given that Trump has been given an ounce of fairness; not a full pound of fairness sure; but an ounce? yes.
I'm not entirely convinced; mostly convinced, but not entirely convinced.
I'm still reserving final judgment on this to see how it pans out in the future; and if that provides more info on how truly intentional this was; and whether it was properly thought-out.
it's also ironic given how you give only an ounce of fairness to obama (and iirc hillary); and no more.
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On December 06 2016 03:23 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On December 06 2016 03:19 xDaunt wrote:On December 06 2016 03:17 Leporello wrote: I gave Trump a chance. It lasted about 24 hours, though. Appointing a climate-change denier to lead the EPA was basically the first thing Trump did. "Drain the swamp!" Brought to you by Exxon-Mobil. This should make you feel better: Former vice president Al Gore and Donald Trump met Monday to talk about climate change.
"I had a lengthy and very productive session with the president-elect. It was a sincere search for areas of common ground," Gore told reporters after the meeting at Trump Tower.
"I had a meeting beforehand with Ivanka Trump. The bulk of the time was with the president-elect, Donald Trump. I found it an extremely interesting conversation, and to be continued, and i'm just going to leave it at that," Gore continued. He had been scheduled to just meet with Trump's daughter and earlier in the morning Trump spokesman Jason Miller said Trump had no plans to meet with Gore.
The meeting came the same day The Guardian published an interview with Gore where he said that the threat of climate change is too pressing for people to “despair” over Trump’s election.
“My message would be that despair is just another form of denial. There is no time to despair. We don’t have time to lick our wounds, to hope for a different election outcome,” Gore wrote. “We have to win this struggle and we will win it; the only question is how fast we win. But more damaged is baked into the climate system every day, so it’s a race against time.”
Gore, the 2000 Democratic presidential nominee, was a recipient of the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize for his efforts in raising awareness of the dangers of climate change.
Trump has previously said that climate change is a hoax invented by the Chinese and vowed to cancel the Paris climate deal. After being elected president, though, he signaled at least some openness to modifying his views.
In a meeting with The New York Times last month, Trump said there is “some connectivity” related to humans and climate change.
Asked if he’d pull out of the Paris Climate deal, the president-elect said, “I’m going to take a look at it."
Politico recently reported that Ivanka Trump planned to focus on climate change during her father's presidency. Source. Those are pretty words. Announcing a climate denier as head of the EPA is an action. One speaks louder then the other. Sure, but like everything else with regards to Trump, the best approach right now is to wait and see what he actually does beyond the appointments. He may not be the harbinger of climate doom that y'all on the left think he is.
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United Kingdom13775 Posts
On December 06 2016 03:21 xDaunt wrote:Show nested quote +On December 06 2016 03:19 LegalLord wrote: That said, I'm not sure I agree with the wisdom of an anti-China policy. It seems like more of the same short-sighted war games that the US has been fond of in recent times. Anti-China policy doesn't necessarily mean war with China. Frankly, Trump's trade war rhetoric is far less dangerous than Obama's brinkmanship in the South China Sea. It might end up coinciding with a hard landing scenario in China which would be a double hit. I'm not sure how China would cope; it might restructure well, it might hit a wall like Japan and stagnate.
I don't think an anti-China strategy is a great long-term bet though.
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On December 06 2016 03:30 LegalLord wrote:Show nested quote +On December 06 2016 03:21 xDaunt wrote:On December 06 2016 03:19 LegalLord wrote: That said, I'm not sure I agree with the wisdom of an anti-China policy. It seems like more of the same short-sighted war games that the US has been fond of in recent times. Anti-China policy doesn't necessarily mean war with China. Frankly, Trump's trade war rhetoric is far less dangerous than Obama's brinkmanship in the South China Sea. It might end up coinciding with a hard landing scenario in China which would be a double hit. I'm not sure how China would cope; it might restructure well, it might hit a wall like Japan and stagnate.
True, but it's not our job to subsidize China. If they can't prop up their own economy without cheating on international trade, then fuck em. I think Trump understands China's dependence on its huge trade surplus with the US, and consequently understands the leverage that he has in the relationship. And I also think that he wants to test China a bit to better understand how far he can push the Chinese. This process is long overdue.
I don't think an anti-China strategy is a great long-term bet though.
Why not? They very clearly have an adversarial view towards the US as a competitor on the international stage. It is folly for us to ignore that fact.
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United Kingdom13775 Posts
What do you expect China to do if it feels that the US works in opposition to its interests?
Nothing that would be worth the false hope of stopping the rise of real challenges to US influence in the world, that's for sure.
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On December 06 2016 03:41 LegalLord wrote: What do you expect China to do if it feels that the US works in opposition to its interests?
Nothing that would be worth the false hope of stopping the rise of real challenges to US influence in the world, that's for sure.
Why do you think that we currently don't? Of course we work in opposition to their interests. The only one that we don't work against is the most important one: the trade imbalance.
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Being adversaries in one context does not mean flip the whole table over. It feels like you are ignoring the fact that we have a very mutually beneficial relationship with China. The idea of "enemies in some ways" is super common and doesn't warrant some kinda trade war.
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On December 06 2016 03:30 LegalLord wrote:Show nested quote +On December 06 2016 03:21 xDaunt wrote:On December 06 2016 03:19 LegalLord wrote: That said, I'm not sure I agree with the wisdom of an anti-China policy. It seems like more of the same short-sighted war games that the US has been fond of in recent times. Anti-China policy doesn't necessarily mean war with China. Frankly, Trump's trade war rhetoric is far less dangerous than Obama's brinkmanship in the South China Sea. It might end up coinciding with a hard landing scenario in China which would be a double hit. I'm not sure how China would cope; it might restructure well, it might hit a wall like Japan and stagnate. I don't think an anti-China strategy is a great long-term bet though.
Could an anti-China push start resulting in more meddling and destabilizing of regimes that are favorable to China (say in Africa) as part of such a confrontational strategy?
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On December 06 2016 03:48 Logo wrote:Show nested quote +On December 06 2016 03:30 LegalLord wrote:On December 06 2016 03:21 xDaunt wrote:On December 06 2016 03:19 LegalLord wrote: That said, I'm not sure I agree with the wisdom of an anti-China policy. It seems like more of the same short-sighted war games that the US has been fond of in recent times. Anti-China policy doesn't necessarily mean war with China. Frankly, Trump's trade war rhetoric is far less dangerous than Obama's brinkmanship in the South China Sea. It might end up coinciding with a hard landing scenario in China which would be a double hit. I'm not sure how China would cope; it might restructure well, it might hit a wall like Japan and stagnate. I don't think an anti-China strategy is a great long-term bet though. Could an anti-China push start resulting in more meddling and destabilizing of regimes that are favorable to China (say in Africa) as part of such a confrontational strategy? It can and given general US tendencies, probably ultimately will. South China Sea stuff is also a matter to worry about.
Whether or not it will be beneficial is another matter.
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On December 06 2016 03:50 LegalLord wrote:Show nested quote +On December 06 2016 03:48 Logo wrote:On December 06 2016 03:30 LegalLord wrote:On December 06 2016 03:21 xDaunt wrote:On December 06 2016 03:19 LegalLord wrote: That said, I'm not sure I agree with the wisdom of an anti-China policy. It seems like more of the same short-sighted war games that the US has been fond of in recent times. Anti-China policy doesn't necessarily mean war with China. Frankly, Trump's trade war rhetoric is far less dangerous than Obama's brinkmanship in the South China Sea. It might end up coinciding with a hard landing scenario in China which would be a double hit. I'm not sure how China would cope; it might restructure well, it might hit a wall like Japan and stagnate. I don't think an anti-China strategy is a great long-term bet though. Could an anti-China push start resulting in more meddling and destabilizing of regimes that are favorable to China (say in Africa) as part of such a confrontational strategy? It can and given general US tendencies, probably ultimately will. South China Sea stuff is also a matter to worry about. Whether or not it will be beneficial is another matter.
Has that style of diplomacy/war/whatever you want to call it ever been beneficial in the long term? It always seems like, at best, a way to make a short term game in exchange for a long term loss.
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On December 06 2016 03:55 Logo wrote:Show nested quote +On December 06 2016 03:50 LegalLord wrote:On December 06 2016 03:48 Logo wrote:On December 06 2016 03:30 LegalLord wrote:On December 06 2016 03:21 xDaunt wrote:On December 06 2016 03:19 LegalLord wrote: That said, I'm not sure I agree with the wisdom of an anti-China policy. It seems like more of the same short-sighted war games that the US has been fond of in recent times. Anti-China policy doesn't necessarily mean war with China. Frankly, Trump's trade war rhetoric is far less dangerous than Obama's brinkmanship in the South China Sea. It might end up coinciding with a hard landing scenario in China which would be a double hit. I'm not sure how China would cope; it might restructure well, it might hit a wall like Japan and stagnate. I don't think an anti-China strategy is a great long-term bet though. Could an anti-China push start resulting in more meddling and destabilizing of regimes that are favorable to China (say in Africa) as part of such a confrontational strategy? It can and given general US tendencies, probably ultimately will. South China Sea stuff is also a matter to worry about. Whether or not it will be beneficial is another matter. Has that style of diplomacy/war/whatever you want to call it ever been beneficial in the long term? It always seems like, at best, a way to make a short term game in exchange for a long term loss. Welcome to US foreign policy. Where you overthrow a foreign government first, think about the consequences of your actions later.
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On December 06 2016 02:16 xDaunt wrote:Show nested quote +On December 04 2016 14:04 Slaughter wrote: The Chinese probably aren't really that offended, they know Trump is a know nothing. Just gives them an excuse to lodge a complaint.
I'm also kinda confused as to where this confidence in Trump's savy in FP comes from to consciously pull off such a thing that XDaunt attributes to him. Sure enough.... Show nested quote +Donald Trump’s protocol-breaking telephone call with Taiwan’s leader was an intentionally provocative move that establishes the incoming president as a break with the past, according to interviews with people involved in the planning.
The historic communication — the first between leaders of the United States and Taiwan since 1979 — was the product of months of quiet preparations and deliberations among Trump’s advisers about a new strategy for engagement with Taiwan that began even before he became the Republican presidential nominee, according to people involved in or briefed on the talks.
The call also reflects the views of hard-line advisers urging Trump to take a tough opening line with China, said others familiar with the months of discussion about Taiwan and China.
....
Several leading members of Trump’s transition team are considered hawkish on China and friendly toward Taiwan, including incoming chief of staff Reince Priebus.
Indeed, advisers explicitly warned last month that relations with China were in for a shake-up.
In an article for Foreign Policy magazine titled “Donald Trump’s Peace Through Strength Vision for the Asia-Pacific,” Peter Navarro and Alexander Gray described Taiwan as a “beacon of democracy in Asia” and complained that its treatment by the Obama administration was “egregious.”
The article, flagged to China experts as a significant policy blueprint, described Taiwan as “the most militarily vulnerable U.S. partner anywhere in the world” and called for a comprehensive arms deal to help it defend itself against China.
Friday’s phone call does not necessarily mean that will happen, but it does look like the first sign of a recalibration by a future Trump administration, experts say.
It was planned weeks ahead by staffers and Taiwan specialists on both sides, according to people familiar with the plans.
Immediately after Trump won the Nov. 8 election, his staffers compiled a list of foreign leaders with whom to arrange calls. “Very early on, Taiwan was on that list,” said Stephen Yates, a national security official during the presidency of George W. Bush and an expert on China and Taiwan. “Once the call was scheduled, I was told that there was a briefing for President-elect Trump. They knew that there would be reaction and potential blowback.”
Alex Huang, a spokesman for Tsai, told the Reuters news agency, “Of course both sides agreed ahead of time before making contact.”
....
At the Republican National Convention in July, Trump’s allies inserted a little-noticed phrase into the party’s platform reaffirming support for six key assurances to Taiwan made by President Ronald Reagan in 1982 — a priority for the Taiwan government. Also written into the 2016 platform was tougher language about China than had been in the party’s platform in its previous iteration four years ago.
“We salute the people of Taiwan, with whom we share the values of democracy, human rights, a free market economy, and the rule of law,” the platform said, adding that the current documents governing U.S.-Taiwan relations should stand but adding, “China’s behavior has negated the optimistic language of our last platform concerning our future relations with China.”
Yates, who helped write that portion of the platform, said Trump made clear at the time that he wanted to recalibrate relationships around the world and that the U.S. posture toward China was “a personal priority.” Source. None of this is a surprise to anyone who has been paying attention to what Trump has been saying since he began his campaign. All it takes is listening to what he says with an ounce of fairness. His campaign was staunchly tough on China, and he's actually doing what he campaigned on. Shocking, I know. Obama campaigned on "Hope and Change," and certainly failed to deliver the "Change." We're about to see what a real "Change" president looks like -- for better or for worse.
So basically you are saying it's Trump's behind the scenes guys who just so happen to be hard liners on China. Considering that Trump tried to walk it back with his follow up tweets that really doesn't inspire confidence as much as it inspires me to think that he is indeed a no knowing on FP and will robotically do whathe he is told then even mess that up with his Twitter account.
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On December 06 2016 03:56 Slaughter wrote:Show nested quote +On December 06 2016 02:16 xDaunt wrote:On December 04 2016 14:04 Slaughter wrote: The Chinese probably aren't really that offended, they know Trump is a know nothing. Just gives them an excuse to lodge a complaint.
I'm also kinda confused as to where this confidence in Trump's savy in FP comes from to consciously pull off such a thing that XDaunt attributes to him. Sure enough.... Donald Trump’s protocol-breaking telephone call with Taiwan’s leader was an intentionally provocative move that establishes the incoming president as a break with the past, according to interviews with people involved in the planning.
The historic communication — the first between leaders of the United States and Taiwan since 1979 — was the product of months of quiet preparations and deliberations among Trump’s advisers about a new strategy for engagement with Taiwan that began even before he became the Republican presidential nominee, according to people involved in or briefed on the talks.
The call also reflects the views of hard-line advisers urging Trump to take a tough opening line with China, said others familiar with the months of discussion about Taiwan and China.
....
Several leading members of Trump’s transition team are considered hawkish on China and friendly toward Taiwan, including incoming chief of staff Reince Priebus.
Indeed, advisers explicitly warned last month that relations with China were in for a shake-up.
In an article for Foreign Policy magazine titled “Donald Trump’s Peace Through Strength Vision for the Asia-Pacific,” Peter Navarro and Alexander Gray described Taiwan as a “beacon of democracy in Asia” and complained that its treatment by the Obama administration was “egregious.”
The article, flagged to China experts as a significant policy blueprint, described Taiwan as “the most militarily vulnerable U.S. partner anywhere in the world” and called for a comprehensive arms deal to help it defend itself against China.
Friday’s phone call does not necessarily mean that will happen, but it does look like the first sign of a recalibration by a future Trump administration, experts say.
It was planned weeks ahead by staffers and Taiwan specialists on both sides, according to people familiar with the plans.
Immediately after Trump won the Nov. 8 election, his staffers compiled a list of foreign leaders with whom to arrange calls. “Very early on, Taiwan was on that list,” said Stephen Yates, a national security official during the presidency of George W. Bush and an expert on China and Taiwan. “Once the call was scheduled, I was told that there was a briefing for President-elect Trump. They knew that there would be reaction and potential blowback.”
Alex Huang, a spokesman for Tsai, told the Reuters news agency, “Of course both sides agreed ahead of time before making contact.”
....
At the Republican National Convention in July, Trump’s allies inserted a little-noticed phrase into the party’s platform reaffirming support for six key assurances to Taiwan made by President Ronald Reagan in 1982 — a priority for the Taiwan government. Also written into the 2016 platform was tougher language about China than had been in the party’s platform in its previous iteration four years ago.
“We salute the people of Taiwan, with whom we share the values of democracy, human rights, a free market economy, and the rule of law,” the platform said, adding that the current documents governing U.S.-Taiwan relations should stand but adding, “China’s behavior has negated the optimistic language of our last platform concerning our future relations with China.”
Yates, who helped write that portion of the platform, said Trump made clear at the time that he wanted to recalibrate relationships around the world and that the U.S. posture toward China was “a personal priority.” Source. None of this is a surprise to anyone who has been paying attention to what Trump has been saying since he began his campaign. All it takes is listening to what he says with an ounce of fairness. His campaign was staunchly tough on China, and he's actually doing what he campaigned on. Shocking, I know. Obama campaigned on "Hope and Change," and certainly failed to deliver the "Change." We're about to see what a real "Change" president looks like -- for better or for worse. So basically you are saying it's Trump's behind the scenes guys who just so happen to be hard liners on China. Considering that Trump tried to walk it back with his follow up tweets that really doesn't inspire confidence as much as it inspires me to think that he is indeed a no knowing on FP and will robotically do whathe he is told then even mess that up with his Twitter account. How the fuck did you come up with this? Do you even read my posts before responding to them?
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On December 06 2016 03:41 LegalLord wrote: What do you expect China to do if it feels that the US works in opposition to its interests?
Nothing that would be worth the false hope of stopping the rise of real challenges to US influence in the world, that's for sure. If China really wants to fuck with the US, they have a stranglehold on rare earth minerals. And a trade war is not going to be fun if 97% of the rare earth market is suddenly closed to the US. Because guess what is used in pretty much all modern high tech industry...
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On December 06 2016 04:34 Acrofales wrote:Show nested quote +On December 06 2016 03:41 LegalLord wrote: What do you expect China to do if it feels that the US works in opposition to its interests?
Nothing that would be worth the false hope of stopping the rise of real challenges to US influence in the world, that's for sure. If China really wants to fuck with the US, they have a stranglehold on rare earth minerals. And a trade war is not going to be fun if 97% of the rare earth market is suddenly closed to the US. Because guess what is used in pretty much all modern high tech industry... China's interests in their rare earth metals industry are no doubt leveraged against other market areas where China has less leeway, so its not exactly accurate to say that they have a "stranglehold" on something they can't freely manipulate. This is partly why single nation fear mongering in the area of economic diplomacy, such as "OMG CHINA" or "OMG RUSSIA," is fairly toothless. Globalization chokes out economic advantage long before a nation can actually utilize it in a deliberate manner, and mutual dependency is far less easily manipulated.
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