EPTUS Politics Mega-thread - Page 6000
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Read the rules in the OP before posting, please. In order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a re-read to refresh your memory! The vast majority of you are contributing in a healthy way, keep it up! NOTE: When providing a source, explain why you feel it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion if it's not obvious. Also take note that unsubstantiated tweets/posts meant only to rekindle old arguments can result in a mod action. | ||
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plasmidghost
Belgium16168 Posts
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plasmidghost
Belgium16168 Posts
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Adreme
United States5574 Posts
On November 09 2016 09:30 plasmidghost wrote: Virginia should tip in favor of Clinton when the big cities report in, right? Yes. Virgina is not in play. If you want to get a good feel of how the presidential race is going look at the senate numbers. For example Rubio being up 8 in flordia when he will probably win by 4-5 means that the Trump portions of the state are mostly reporting. Obviously CNN has it broken down much better (or whatever you are watching) but this is a rough way to do it. | ||
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Clonester
Germany2808 Posts
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TheTenthDoc
United States9561 Posts
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LegalLord
United Kingdom13775 Posts
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Probe1
United States17920 Posts
On November 09 2016 08:58 Nevuk wrote: I've lived there almost all my life, and my mother is from Eastern KY. It's a very hard place to pin down. Like all states the cities are heavily democratic, though Lexington to a lesser degree than Louisville. Lexington is basically where you want to go if you're religious but still gay (very high gay population, but extremely religious). It's conservative, not red. Basically there are still "blue-dog" democrats here, even though they've died out almost everywhere else. It's why Bill Clinton won it pretty easily be tossing some conservative talking points and seeming southern in the 90s. Eastern KY is so hard to get a handle on for most people because it's like traveling back in time about 90 years. Like, cable etc. isn't available for many of the most rural and mountainous areas, so there's no acceleration of ideology due to Fox News. Even talk radio is hard to get in the eastern parts of the state, so it is mostly just seeping through from conversations. Basically : the western part is insanely red, the central part is mildly blue, the eastern part is confused (leans red nationally, blue locally). KY is fiscally liberal but hates admitting it. They're very much in favor of subsidies for horse farming, farmers, and coal miners. I see. I do not want to argue against your lifetime of experience when I've just been a visitor. | ||
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Sermokala
United States13754 Posts
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riotjune
United States3392 Posts
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LegalLord
United Kingdom13775 Posts
On November 09 2016 09:31 TheTenthDoc wrote: Keep this in mind as you watch Florida flip back and forth: *even if* Clinton loses Florida, it being roughly even is about where the polls/538's model put her going into today. While demographics obviously shift across the country, even a narrow win there is a sign for a rough path for Trump. State-by-state results are not independent. If Hillary loses Florida it suggests that reality skews Trump relative to polls. | ||
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Grettin
42381 Posts
On November 09 2016 09:32 riotjune wrote: can i get drunk yet Yes. | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On November 09 2016 09:30 plasmidghost wrote: Virginia should tip in favor of Clinton when the big cities report in, right? think so too: ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/D1hRV8O.png) the circles is what's left and how much that accoutns for | ||
KwarK
United States42022 Posts
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Luolis
Finland7090 Posts
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Jockmcplop
United Kingdom9353 Posts
On November 09 2016 09:32 riotjune wrote: can i get drunk yet Yes. I recommend you stay drunk until about 2020. | ||
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Howie_Dewitt
United States1416 Posts
On November 09 2016 09:32 riotjune wrote: can i get drunk yet drink a shot for every 20 ec points in favor of the other candidate | ||
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LegalLord
United Kingdom13775 Posts
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Probe1
United States17920 Posts
On November 09 2016 09:32 Sermokala wrote: Happy US election day everyone. Heyoo User was warned for this post | ||
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TheTenthDoc
United States9561 Posts
On November 09 2016 09:32 LegalLord wrote: State-by-state results are not independent. If Hillary loses Florida it suggests that reality skews Trump relative to polls. Yes, but if she loses narrowly it is unlikely it skews Trump enough to win him the election. | ||
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ZigguratOfUr
Iraq16955 Posts
On November 09 2016 09:32 LegalLord wrote: State-by-state results are not independent. If Hillary loses Florida it suggests that reality skews Trump relative to polls. According to 538 a Florida win for Clinton means a 93% chance of victory. A Florida win for Trump means a 59% chance of victory for him. | ||
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