EPTUS Politics Mega-thread - Page 5832
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Read the rules in the OP before posting, please. In order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a re-read to refresh your memory! The vast majority of you are contributing in a healthy way, keep it up! NOTE: When providing a source, explain why you feel it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion if it's not obvious. Also take note that unsubstantiated tweets/posts meant only to rekindle old arguments can result in a mod action. | ||
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OuchyDathurts
United States4588 Posts
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Rebs
Pakistan10726 Posts
On November 01 2016 02:18 biology]major wrote: Where was this sane reasoning when O'keefe released his videos? "not gonna watch, that guy is a hack", not very different from my position, "not gonna read, too long, poster has personal motives and biases, not worth my time". Uhhh most people have watched all of O'Keefe's videos. Even the ones proven to be false. I dont recall ever suggesting I didnt bother to watch any of that shit. At the end of the day you have to consume garbage to reaffirm what garbage looks like. Also O'keefe is a proven liar that damaged peoples lives, or are you contending that the filth he made up is actually true ? Kwiz you just dont like because you feel hes biased. False equivalence galore. | ||
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Mohdoo
United States15743 Posts
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GoTuNk!
Chile4591 Posts
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Stratos_speAr
United States6959 Posts
On November 01 2016 02:31 GoTuNk! wrote: So the polls changed or something? A couple of pages ago some people here were saying the election was done for Hillary. Is that still true for them or that changed? Still pretty much true. Clinton isn't polling as well in Ohio, Iowa, or Arizona, but she can lose those states as well as a couple more and still win. She could even lose Florida and still win. Her lead was so massive that it's going to take quite a bit until it really isn't a safe lead. The only people saying otherwise are hopelessly delusional. | ||
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las91
United States5080 Posts
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oBlade
United States6611 Posts
On November 01 2016 02:36 las91 wrote: FiveThirtyEights prediction has moved from like an 86 - 14 to a 75 - 25, so it's definitely helped Trump but it's hard to say whether it'll matter electorally. I think most people's minds are already made up. That forecast will inch back up towards a coinflip by election day just like the cycle it goes through every previous time Trump has tanked. | ||
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Rebs
Pakistan10726 Posts
On November 01 2016 02:34 Stratos_speAr wrote: Still pretty much true. Clinton isn't polling as well in Ohio, Iowa, or Arizona, but she can lose those states as well as a couple more and still win. She could even lose Florida and still win. Her lead was so massive that it's going to take quite a bit until it really isn't a safe lead. The only people saying otherwise are hopelessly delusional. Isnt she killing it in early voting in Florida ? | ||
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
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Stratos_speAr
United States6959 Posts
On November 01 2016 02:36 las91 wrote: FiveThirtyEights prediction has moved from like an 86 - 14 to a 75 - 25, so it's definitely helped Trump but it's hard to say whether it'll matter electorally. I think most people's minds are already made up. There aren't any polls post-announcement, so we don't know the effect it's had. Isnt she killing it in early voting in Florida ? Pretty much all early voting has been in the Democrats' favor. Clinton could lose Ohio, Iowa, Arizona, Nevada, Florida, North Carolina, Maine, and Maine's 2nd District and still win, just to name all of the close-polling places. Trump still needs to pick up at least Colorado, New Hampshire, or Pennsylvania, and he's been polling horribly in each of those states without a single poll showing him ahead. Oh, and apparently a new poll came out recently showing Clinton ahead in Alaska. If she wins Alaska, she can lose New Hampshire. It just does not look good for Trump no matter what. | ||
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
On November 01 2016 02:31 GoTuNk! wrote: So the polls changed or something? A couple of pages ago some people here were saying the election was done for Hillary. Is that still true for them or that changed? Honestly it's just a return to equilibrium. People really don't like Hillary that much and it will show in the election results. Not that that means Trump will win but it's hard to have a blowout in favor of a candidate everyone hates. | ||
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Piledriver
United States1697 Posts
On November 01 2016 02:42 LegalLord wrote: Honestly it's just a return to equilibrium. People really don't like Hillary that much and it will show in the election results. Not that that means Trump will win but it's hard to have a blowout in favor of a candidate everyone hates. I think we are on track for a Brexit style upset. I have this horrible feeling in my gut that come election day, a lot of people are going to go into the booth and make the choice for anti establishment candidate just as a giant fuck you to the system, especially a lot of young people who don't want to be seen as openly supporting Trump, given his general unpopularity with millenials. I hope to God that this doesn't happen, but I wouldn't be surprised if it does. | ||
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TheYango
United States47024 Posts
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biology]major
United States2253 Posts
On November 01 2016 03:02 Piledriver wrote: I think we are on track for a Brexit style upset. I have this horrible feeling in my gut that come election day, a lot of people are going to go into the booth and make the choice for anti establishment candidate just as a giant fuck you to the system, especially a lot of young people who don't want to be seen as openly supporting Trump, given his general unpopularity with millenials. I hope to God that this doesn't happen, but I wouldn't be surprised if it does. That's exactly what's going to happen, this FBI investigation will provide the extra impetus needed. | ||
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ticklishmusic
United States15977 Posts
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
On November 01 2016 03:02 Piledriver wrote: I think we are on track for a Brexit style upset. I have this horrible feeling in my gut that come election day, a lot of people are going to go into the booth and make the choice for anti establishment candidate just as a giant fuck you to the system, especially a lot of young people who don't want to be seen as openly supporting Trump, given his general unpopularity with millenials. I hope to God that this doesn't happen, but I wouldn't be surprised if it does. Possibly. The "chances" of Remain (or, more accurately in a Bayesian probabilistic sense, the degree of belief) were something like 60-40 if you look at the polls, the fundamental scenario, and if you ignore that the betting averages were clearly overzealous in favor of Remain. Trump's "chances" are realistically something like 20-25%. I don't see a fundamental favorability for Trump that wouldn't be reflected in the polls, and the polls aren't very close. It's possible but less likely. | ||
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Gorsameth
Netherlands22664 Posts
For the election. Trump has to beat the polls in so many different states at the same time that it just becomes incredibly unlikely for them to be that wrong. He might 'beat' 1-2 polls and win unexpected states that way but to beat 7 sets of state polls back to back? I don't see it. | ||
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farvacola
United States18869 Posts
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
On November 01 2016 03:14 Gorsameth wrote: Remain was also 1 big national result. Its a lot easier to get polling wrong in that case by missing certain sections of the populations or by wrong sampling (since there was no precedent to balance again). For the election. Trump has to beat the polls in so many different states at the same time that it just becomes incredibly unlikely for them to be that wrong. He might 'beat' 1-2 polls and win unexpected states that way but to beat 7 sets of state polls back to back? I don't see it. Nate Silver noted that state averages aren't really independent and that, say, a national shift three percent in Trump's favor is likely to be mostly uniformly distributed among the population - including in all the swing states. The states mostly shift together. That said, I'm not seeing the fundamental reasons for thinking that the polls are biased against Trump, like I saw with Brexit and Leave. | ||
KwarK
United States44389 Posts
On November 01 2016 02:31 GoTuNk! wrote: So the polls changed or something? A couple of pages ago some people here were saying the election was done for Hillary. Is that still true for them or that changed? Situation unchanged. The previous situation was that there were 6 states in contention, FL, NC, OH, IA, AZ, NV and Donald needed to go 6/6 and also turn one of Hillary's "safe" states which wasn't even close to being in contention. Most of the drama of the election has been talking about how Hillary is winning FL, or NC, or OH, and so forth like it's a super close race, but it's really not. For a while Hillary was going 6/6 on top of her "already won this game ty" states. Now they're closer to 3:3, although Hillary still has FL and NC locked down. But the fundamental problem remains, unless Trump can turn one of Hillary's "safe" states, and it doesn't look remotely possible at the moment that he will, then the 6 states that could go either way don't even matter. Nobody wants to report on it being boring because that doesn't get pageviews but ultimately Trump is still fucked unless he can flip PA, NH, CO or another. | ||
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