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Read the rules in the OP before posting, please.

In order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a re-read to refresh your memory! The vast majority of you are contributing in a healthy way, keep it up!

NOTE: When providing a source, explain why you feel it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion if it's not obvious.
Also take note that unsubstantiated tweets/posts meant only to rekindle old arguments can result in a mod action.
Falling
Profile Blog Joined June 2009
Canada11349 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-10-27 01:23:38
October 27 2016 01:23 GMT
#115561
On October 27 2016 07:54 Barrin wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 27 2016 07:41 TheYango wrote:
On October 27 2016 07:38 LegalLord wrote:
On October 27 2016 07:31 Aquanim wrote:
Does the one word "socialist" sink Sanders in your country for the general?

Let me put it this way: "socialist" is to the US as "racist" is to Europe.

The stigma behind the word "socialism" is one of the major tools the Republican party uses to continue getting people to vote against policy that's against their own interest. The stigma against "socialism" and "communism" results in people being irrationally afraid of changes that would benefit them the most.

Aint that the truth.

It's particularly silly when you consider that the very same people being fooled by the stigma also tend to be the people who believe in Jesus' teachings. Correct me if I'm wrong, but if Jesus were alive today he'd be all about socialism.

I think you'd find his teachings largely apolitical- obey whoever it is that is in authority, unless they forbid you from preaching the gospel or force you to deny Christ. The particular political system one finds oneself under is irrelevant to the work of Christ.
Moderator"In Trump We Trust," says the Golden Goat of Mars Lago. Have faith and believe! Trump moves in mysterious ways. Like the wind he blows where he pleases...
zlefin
Profile Blog Joined October 2012
United States7689 Posts
October 27 2016 01:26 GMT
#115562
On October 27 2016 10:18 biology]major wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 27 2016 09:50 KwarK wrote:
On October 27 2016 09:19 biology]major wrote:
On October 27 2016 09:00 zlefin wrote:
On October 27 2016 08:59 On_Slaught wrote:
On October 27 2016 08:49 zlefin wrote:
On October 27 2016 08:46 On_Slaught wrote:
On October 27 2016 08:29 zlefin wrote:
On October 27 2016 08:22 biology]major wrote:
The electoral map for trump is so brutal, it's unreal. Even if the national poll has trump leading or tied, the electoral nightmare persists.

how is that?
iirc electoral map favors republicans if the vote numbers are equal due to more low population states being republican.
but i haven't really looked at the details in awhile.


Electoral map was massively in Clintons favor coming into this race. Trump just made it harder by virtue of him running the worst campaign in history.

was the electoral map favorable for clinton even assuming equal total vote numbers? my impression is that he was talking about equal total popular vote numbers.


How would you even measure this? Vote distribution is what matters and equal votes tells you nothing about it. So how would we know it favors Trump?

that's beside the point, I was responding to someone and was working through the issue.


I just saw some guy explaining path to 270 on CNN and even if he got Florida, NC, PA, Ohio, Iowa, Utah, NV and some others he is still short. Mission impossible

I've been saying this for a long time. His paths to victory are either all 6 competitive states + NH or 4/5 of the competitive states and PA. Trump knows this, there was an article a few weeks ago explaining that he'd pulled his resources from all but PA, FL, OH and NC, all of which are must win for him if he wants to pursue that route. And PA isn't even remotely competitive.

He's incredibly fucked.

edit: this is his most probable path to victory
+ Show Spoiler +
On October 05 2016 23:36 KwarK wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 05 2016 22:08 Incognoto wrote:
Whoever gets Ohio wins the election. This is a known fact.

If Hillary gets Ohio she wins. But if Trump gets Ohio and doesn't also get Florida and North Carolina Hillary wins.

[image loading]


As I said yesterday, there are five key swing states, Florida(29), Ohio(18), North Carolina(15), Nevada(6) and Iowa(6).
If he loses Florida it doesn't matter if he wins the other four. Even with New Hampshire and Michigan flipping and Massachusetts split evenly he still loses without Florida. If we assume Michigan and New Hampshire won't flip Trump needs to go 5/5 on the above states. Assuming Pennsylvania stays a Hillary stronghold that is.

and it's not probable

+ Show Spoiler [another electoral college math post] +
On October 13 2016 23:58 KwarK wrote:
So, on a politics note, Trump is pulling out of all states but North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida.

Here's the problem with that. The last three polls in Pennsylvania put Trump 9 points behind, 10 points behind and 11 points behind. 538 put his chances of winning Pennsylvania at this point outside of the margin of error. Polling is an inaccurate science but it wouldn't just take inaccurate polling at this point, it'd take a completely unexpected outside factor. Incidentally Clinton is outspending Trump in Pennsylvania 20:1.

I wrote previously about how if we assume that he doesn't win Pennsylvania, an assumption I'm sticking with, he needs to win all the red states and Iowa, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio and Florida. He's currently losing hard in Nevada (and added Arizona to the list, despite it previously being pretty solidly red).

This is essentially an allin bet on Pennsylvania from what I can see. If he flips it that's 20 electoral college votes. If he loses all three of the competitive states he's no longer ahead in, Iowa, Nevada and now Arizona, that's 21 electoral college votes.

+ Show Spoiler [electoral math] +

Texas - 38 - Total so far 38
Georgia - 16 - 54
Indiana - 11 - 65
Tennessee - 11 - 76
Missouri - 10 - 86
South Carolina - 9 - 95
Alabama - 9 - 104
Kentucky - 8 - 112
Louisiana - 8 - 120
Oklahoma - 7 - 127
Arkansas - 6 - 133
Utah - 6 - 139
Kansas - 6 - 145
Mississippi - 6 - 151
West Virginia - 5 - 156
Nebraska - 5 - 161
Idaho - 4 - 165
Montana - 3 - 168
Wyoming - 3 - 171
North Dakota - 3 - 174
South Dakota - 3 - 177
Alaska - 3 - 180

That means he has to get 90 more from the following pool

Florida - 29
Pennsylvania - 20
Ohio - 18
North Carolina - 15
Arizona - 11
Nevada - 6
Iowa - 6
Maine - 1 (1 competitive electoral college vote)

Even if he wins Pennsylvania, which he won't, it doesn't matter unless the other swing states he's no longer campaigning in win themselves.
+ Show Spoiler [best case scenario for Trump, 6/6 comp…] +
http://www.270towin.com/maps/W3Krg


Conclusion in case anyone didn't bother to read. If we give Trump all 6 of the competitive states he wants, even though he's behind in all 6 of them today, and we give him the Maine vote, he'll get 266 electoral college votes. To win at this point he'd also have to flip a Clinton safe state, like New Hampshire.
Trump needs to win 7 out of 6 competitive races to win the Presidency.


yeah well no one reads your well thought out posts kwark, I'm gonna instead trust #CNN. But really though he is fucked and it's a sad moment in our country's history. In 4 years the Clinton tentacles will have spread all across our government and bill will be banging some other intern(s).


there's been a lot of far worse moments in our country's history, and it's better than trump winning.
I'll have to call that good enough.
Great read: http://shorensteincenter.org/news-coverage-2016-general-election/ great book on democracy: http://press.princeton.edu/titles/10671.html zlefin is grumpier due to long term illness. Ignoring some users.
iPlaY.NettleS
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
Australia4329 Posts
October 27 2016 01:29 GMT
#115563
Obamas half brother calls on Obama to pardon Assange.
Good luck with that.
https://mobile.twitter.com/ObamaMalik/status/791169481171202048
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e7PvoI6gvQs
KwarK
Profile Blog Joined July 2006
United States42646 Posts
October 27 2016 01:30 GMT
#115564
On October 27 2016 10:18 biology]major wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 27 2016 09:50 KwarK wrote:
On October 27 2016 09:19 biology]major wrote:
On October 27 2016 09:00 zlefin wrote:
On October 27 2016 08:59 On_Slaught wrote:
On October 27 2016 08:49 zlefin wrote:
On October 27 2016 08:46 On_Slaught wrote:
On October 27 2016 08:29 zlefin wrote:
On October 27 2016 08:22 biology]major wrote:
The electoral map for trump is so brutal, it's unreal. Even if the national poll has trump leading or tied, the electoral nightmare persists.

how is that?
iirc electoral map favors republicans if the vote numbers are equal due to more low population states being republican.
but i haven't really looked at the details in awhile.


Electoral map was massively in Clintons favor coming into this race. Trump just made it harder by virtue of him running the worst campaign in history.

was the electoral map favorable for clinton even assuming equal total vote numbers? my impression is that he was talking about equal total popular vote numbers.


How would you even measure this? Vote distribution is what matters and equal votes tells you nothing about it. So how would we know it favors Trump?

that's beside the point, I was responding to someone and was working through the issue.


I just saw some guy explaining path to 270 on CNN and even if he got Florida, NC, PA, Ohio, Iowa, Utah, NV and some others he is still short. Mission impossible

I've been saying this for a long time. His paths to victory are either all 6 competitive states + NH or 4/5 of the competitive states and PA. Trump knows this, there was an article a few weeks ago explaining that he'd pulled his resources from all but PA, FL, OH and NC, all of which are must win for him if he wants to pursue that route. And PA isn't even remotely competitive.

He's incredibly fucked.

edit: this is his most probable path to victory
+ Show Spoiler +
On October 05 2016 23:36 KwarK wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 05 2016 22:08 Incognoto wrote:
Whoever gets Ohio wins the election. This is a known fact.

If Hillary gets Ohio she wins. But if Trump gets Ohio and doesn't also get Florida and North Carolina Hillary wins.

[image loading]


As I said yesterday, there are five key swing states, Florida(29), Ohio(18), North Carolina(15), Nevada(6) and Iowa(6).
If he loses Florida it doesn't matter if he wins the other four. Even with New Hampshire and Michigan flipping and Massachusetts split evenly he still loses without Florida. If we assume Michigan and New Hampshire won't flip Trump needs to go 5/5 on the above states. Assuming Pennsylvania stays a Hillary stronghold that is.

and it's not probable

+ Show Spoiler [another electoral college math post] +
On October 13 2016 23:58 KwarK wrote:
So, on a politics note, Trump is pulling out of all states but North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida.

Here's the problem with that. The last three polls in Pennsylvania put Trump 9 points behind, 10 points behind and 11 points behind. 538 put his chances of winning Pennsylvania at this point outside of the margin of error. Polling is an inaccurate science but it wouldn't just take inaccurate polling at this point, it'd take a completely unexpected outside factor. Incidentally Clinton is outspending Trump in Pennsylvania 20:1.

I wrote previously about how if we assume that he doesn't win Pennsylvania, an assumption I'm sticking with, he needs to win all the red states and Iowa, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio and Florida. He's currently losing hard in Nevada (and added Arizona to the list, despite it previously being pretty solidly red).

This is essentially an allin bet on Pennsylvania from what I can see. If he flips it that's 20 electoral college votes. If he loses all three of the competitive states he's no longer ahead in, Iowa, Nevada and now Arizona, that's 21 electoral college votes.

+ Show Spoiler [electoral math] +

Texas - 38 - Total so far 38
Georgia - 16 - 54
Indiana - 11 - 65
Tennessee - 11 - 76
Missouri - 10 - 86
South Carolina - 9 - 95
Alabama - 9 - 104
Kentucky - 8 - 112
Louisiana - 8 - 120
Oklahoma - 7 - 127
Arkansas - 6 - 133
Utah - 6 - 139
Kansas - 6 - 145
Mississippi - 6 - 151
West Virginia - 5 - 156
Nebraska - 5 - 161
Idaho - 4 - 165
Montana - 3 - 168
Wyoming - 3 - 171
North Dakota - 3 - 174
South Dakota - 3 - 177
Alaska - 3 - 180

That means he has to get 90 more from the following pool

Florida - 29
Pennsylvania - 20
Ohio - 18
North Carolina - 15
Arizona - 11
Nevada - 6
Iowa - 6
Maine - 1 (1 competitive electoral college vote)

Even if he wins Pennsylvania, which he won't, it doesn't matter unless the other swing states he's no longer campaigning in win themselves.
+ Show Spoiler [best case scenario for Trump, 6/6 comp…] +
http://www.270towin.com/maps/W3Krg


Conclusion in case anyone didn't bother to read. If we give Trump all 6 of the competitive states he wants, even though he's behind in all 6 of them today, and we give him the Maine vote, he'll get 266 electoral college votes. To win at this point he'd also have to flip a Clinton safe state, like New Hampshire.
Trump needs to win 7 out of 6 competitive races to win the Presidency.


yeah well no one reads your well thought out posts kwark, I'm gonna instead trust #CNN. But really though he is fucked and it's a sad moment in our country's history. In 4 years the Clinton tentacles will have spread all across our government and bill will be banging some other intern(s).

Maths doesn't depend on trust, unfortunately for Trump. It just is.
ModeratorThe angels have the phone box
zlefin
Profile Blog Joined October 2012
United States7689 Posts
October 27 2016 01:34 GMT
#115565
On October 27 2016 10:29 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:
Obamas half brother calls on Obama to pardon Assange.
Good luck with that.
https://mobile.twitter.com/ObamaMalik/status/791169481171202048

agreed it seems very unlikely.
I see no reason for Obama to use the lame duck pardons on the likes of Assange.
Great read: http://shorensteincenter.org/news-coverage-2016-general-election/ great book on democracy: http://press.princeton.edu/titles/10671.html zlefin is grumpier due to long term illness. Ignoring some users.
Nevuk
Profile Blog Joined March 2009
United States16280 Posts
October 27 2016 01:37 GMT
#115566
What is Assange even charged with that Obama could pardon? Did he mean Snowden?
zlefin
Profile Blog Joined October 2012
United States7689 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-10-27 01:39:50
October 27 2016 01:39 GMT
#115567
On October 27 2016 10:37 Nevuk wrote:
What is Assange even charged with that Obama could pardon? Did he mean Snowden?

iirc Assange hasn't been formally charged with anything yet (and may never be); though I think it's possible to pardon people for stuff they haven't been charged with yet.
Great read: http://shorensteincenter.org/news-coverage-2016-general-election/ great book on democracy: http://press.princeton.edu/titles/10671.html zlefin is grumpier due to long term illness. Ignoring some users.
mahrgell
Profile Blog Joined December 2009
Germany3943 Posts
October 27 2016 01:42 GMT
#115568
On October 27 2016 10:39 zlefin wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 27 2016 10:37 Nevuk wrote:
What is Assange even charged with that Obama could pardon? Did he mean Snowden?

iirc Assange hasn't been formally charged with anything yet (and may never be); though I think it's possible to pardon people for stuff they haven't been charged with yet.

It depends, but yes, in the US you can be pardoned before any charges are up. Famous example is Nixon.

Other countries allow pardons only after charges have been brought up, or only after trial has finished.
Plansix
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States60190 Posts
October 27 2016 01:42 GMT
#115569
On October 27 2016 10:39 zlefin wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 27 2016 10:37 Nevuk wrote:
What is Assange even charged with that Obama could pardon? Did he mean Snowden?

iirc Assange hasn't been formally charged with anything yet (and may never be); though I think it's possible to pardon people for stuff they haven't been charged with yet.

Ford did it for Nixon, but it was pretty questionable. It is hard to legally justify pardoning someone for something they have not been convicted for. Or charged with.
I have the Honor to be your Obedient Servant, P.6
TL+ Member
Nevuk
Profile Blog Joined March 2009
United States16280 Posts
October 27 2016 01:46 GMT
#115570
On October 27 2016 10:39 zlefin wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 27 2016 10:37 Nevuk wrote:
What is Assange even charged with that Obama could pardon? Did he mean Snowden?

iirc Assange hasn't been formally charged with anything yet (and may never be); though I think it's possible to pardon people for stuff they haven't been charged with yet.

Isn't he facing rape charges in Sweden and that's why he's been hiding out in the ecuadorian embassy?
Blitzkrieg0
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States13132 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-10-27 01:48:06
October 27 2016 01:47 GMT
#115571
On October 27 2016 10:46 Nevuk wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 27 2016 10:39 zlefin wrote:
On October 27 2016 10:37 Nevuk wrote:
What is Assange even charged with that Obama could pardon? Did he mean Snowden?

iirc Assange hasn't been formally charged with anything yet (and may never be); though I think it's possible to pardon people for stuff they haven't been charged with yet.

Isn't he facing rape charges in Sweden and that's why he's been hiding out in the ecuadorian embassy?


Didn't the statute of limitations expire on his sexual assault charge already? But all of this seems irrelevant cause how would Obama pardon him...
I'll always be your shadow and veil your eyes from states of ain soph aur.
PhoenixVoid
Profile Blog Joined December 2011
Canada32740 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-10-27 01:49:41
October 27 2016 01:48 GMT
#115572
On October 27 2016 10:46 Nevuk wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 27 2016 10:39 zlefin wrote:
On October 27 2016 10:37 Nevuk wrote:
What is Assange even charged with that Obama could pardon? Did he mean Snowden?

iirc Assange hasn't been formally charged with anything yet (and may never be); though I think it's possible to pardon people for stuff they haven't been charged with yet.

Isn't he facing rape charges in Sweden and that's why he's been hiding out in the ecuadorian embassy?

I think they were looking to question him based on accusations and not formally charge him. The statute of limitations on the case has passed but an investigation in some capacity is still undergoing. But I don't see how Obama could pardon an Australian national holed up in the UK in the Ecuadorian embassy facing alleged charges from Sweden in the first place.
I'm afraid of demented knife-wielding escaped lunatic libertarian zombie mutants
zlefin
Profile Blog Joined October 2012
United States7689 Posts
October 27 2016 01:50 GMT
#115573
On October 27 2016 10:46 Nevuk wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 27 2016 10:39 zlefin wrote:
On October 27 2016 10:37 Nevuk wrote:
What is Assange even charged with that Obama could pardon? Did he mean Snowden?

iirc Assange hasn't been formally charged with anything yet (and may never be); though I think it's possible to pardon people for stuff they haven't been charged with yet.

Isn't he facing rape charges in Sweden and that's why he's been hiding out in the ecuadorian embassy?

he's facing 4 such charges in sweden; iirc 3 of them have expired to statute of limitations, one has not.
part of his claim is that he doesn't want to be extradited to sweden for fear that sweden will extradite him to america.

personally, I don't like someone running for statute of limitation purposes. I prefer to stop the countdown on that if a person has fled. or at least slow it down.
Great read: http://shorensteincenter.org/news-coverage-2016-general-election/ great book on democracy: http://press.princeton.edu/titles/10671.html zlefin is grumpier due to long term illness. Ignoring some users.
Buckyman
Profile Joined May 2014
1364 Posts
October 27 2016 01:51 GMT
#115574
On October 27 2016 07:54 Barrin wrote:
It's particularly silly when you consider that the very same people being fooled by the stigma also tend to be the people who believe in Jesus' teachings. Correct me if I'm wrong, but if Jesus were alive today he'd be all about socialism.

Claiming that "if Jesus were alive today, he'd say X" is extremely disrespectful unless X is something he was actually recorded as saying.
zlefin
Profile Blog Joined October 2012
United States7689 Posts
October 27 2016 01:53 GMT
#115575
On October 27 2016 10:51 Buckyman wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 27 2016 07:54 Barrin wrote:
It's particularly silly when you consider that the very same people being fooled by the stigma also tend to be the people who believe in Jesus' teachings. Correct me if I'm wrong, but if Jesus were alive today he'd be all about socialism.

Claiming that "if Jesus were alive today, he'd say X" is extremely disrespectful unless X is something he was actually recorded as saying.

while it is a bit off, a lot of the stuff Jesus is reputed to have said is very socialist. (since his words weren't actually directly recorded by anyone)
Great read: http://shorensteincenter.org/news-coverage-2016-general-election/ great book on democracy: http://press.princeton.edu/titles/10671.html zlefin is grumpier due to long term illness. Ignoring some users.
Yoav
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1874 Posts
October 27 2016 01:59 GMT
#115576
On October 27 2016 10:23 Falling wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 27 2016 07:54 Barrin wrote:
On October 27 2016 07:41 TheYango wrote:
On October 27 2016 07:38 LegalLord wrote:
On October 27 2016 07:31 Aquanim wrote:
Does the one word "socialist" sink Sanders in your country for the general?

Let me put it this way: "socialist" is to the US as "racist" is to Europe.

The stigma behind the word "socialism" is one of the major tools the Republican party uses to continue getting people to vote against policy that's against their own interest. The stigma against "socialism" and "communism" results in people being irrationally afraid of changes that would benefit them the most.

Aint that the truth.

It's particularly silly when you consider that the very same people being fooled by the stigma also tend to be the people who believe in Jesus' teachings. Correct me if I'm wrong, but if Jesus were alive today he'd be all about socialism.

I think you'd find his teachings largely apolitical- obey whoever it is that is in authority, unless they forbid you from preaching the gospel or force you to deny Christ. The particular political system one finds oneself under is irrelevant to the work of Christ.


I'll agree that they're largely apolitical in terms of our partisan politics, except where such politics infringes upon decency. For instance, Jesus says we need to care for the poor. That allows for both right and left wing ideas about how to best help the poor. What it does not allow for is the Ayn Randian view of "fuck the poor, they deserve poverty."

Jesus was also in favor of protest against political injustice, and opposed the corrupt political order of his day. He by no means advocated unthinking obedience to authorities. He recommended paying taxes, which was as far as he went that way. Remember: he wasn't executed for saying we should love each other... it was his prophetic threat against the injustices toward the poor committed by the Roman-mandated Jerusalem power structure.
Buckyman
Profile Joined May 2014
1364 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-10-27 02:03:25
October 27 2016 02:03 GMT
#115577
On October 27 2016 10:59 Yoav wrote:
Remember: he wasn't executed for saying we should love each other... it was his prophetic threat against the injustices toward the poor committed by the Roman-mandated Jerusalem power structure.


Well, that and publicly calling two of the major parties hypocrites.
PhoenixVoid
Profile Blog Joined December 2011
Canada32740 Posts
October 27 2016 02:09 GMT
#115578
On this Jesus topic, I find Supply-Side Jesus a somewhat relevant comic to search up.
I'm afraid of demented knife-wielding escaped lunatic libertarian zombie mutants
Buckyman
Profile Joined May 2014
1364 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-10-27 02:13:39
October 27 2016 02:13 GMT
#115579
Yes, that does look extremely disrespectful.
Plansix
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States60190 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-10-27 02:30:29
October 27 2016 02:30 GMT
#115580
Ah, the most American, free market Jesus. Supply-Side Jesus because he is the most in demand and his version of salvation the best on the market.
I have the Honor to be your Obedient Servant, P.6
TL+ Member
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