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Read the rules in the OP before posting, please.

In order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a re-read to refresh your memory! The vast majority of you are contributing in a healthy way, keep it up!

NOTE: When providing a source, explain why you feel it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion if it's not obvious.
Also take note that unsubstantiated tweets/posts meant only to rekindle old arguments can result in a mod action.
KwarK
Profile Blog Joined July 2006
United States42975 Posts
October 24 2016 18:50 GMT
#115041
In the North of England they set up economic development zones with tax breaks and grants for companies that built plants in old coal areas etc. It can be done if the political will is there. Not that it was done well, there were still a lot of problems, but there is a template for a transition from heavy industry.
ModeratorThe angels have the phone box
Mohdoo
Profile Joined August 2007
United States15714 Posts
October 24 2016 18:55 GMT
#115042
On October 25 2016 03:50 KwarK wrote:
In the North of England they set up economic development zones with tax breaks and grants for companies that built plants in old coal areas etc. It can be done if the political will is there. Not that it was done well, there were still a lot of problems, but there is a template for a transition from heavy industry.


I recall the US using old timber and mining towns as places for big development, like universities. Artificially giving a depressed area some new, big reason to exist has its place for sure.
Liquid`Drone
Profile Joined September 2002
Norway28689 Posts
October 24 2016 18:55 GMT
#115043
On October 25 2016 01:37 ticklishmusic wrote:
it just boggles my mind that campaigns would lie to themselves w/r/t to polls either internal or external - especially internal or that others would consider it something they would do. a campaign should be making its decisions based on polling data like "oh we're within x points in this area, maybe we could put 200k in ads and overallocate calls to them for a couple weeks to see if we can flip it". deliberately deceiving themselves makes it impossible to do any sort of proper targeting. there is no incentive for it, except for a short term ability to stick your head in the sand.

the romney campaign tried unskewing the polls and they were wrong. however, their mistrust was based on some actual analysis. the trump campaign just... makes stuff up.


Any campaign lying to themselves internally makes no sense whatsoever. Trump campaign lying externally makes a whole lot of sense. Firstly because people are more likely to vote if they think they're voting for the winner, second because winning is specifically a big part of Trump's pitch.
Moderator
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
October 24 2016 19:21 GMT
#115044
Jill Harth, the first woman to publicly accuse Donald Trump of sexual misconduct, has threatened to countersue the Republican nominee for president, if he carries out the promise to sue his accusers he outlined in Gettysburg on Saturday.

“If he sues me, I know that truth is an absolute defense, and I will countersue for the emotional hurt and lost income his attacks have caused me,” Harth said in a statement on Monday afternoon.

Harth, who settled a 1997 sexual harassment lawsuit against Trump, initially stayed quiet as the businessman’s run for the White House gathered speed this year. She was inspired to speak to the Guardian in July, after Trump said she and other women were liars, when their stories were shared as part of a New York Times investigation.

“I’m not going to get an apology from him,” Harth told the Guardian. “But he really should have been taught, if you don’t have anything nice to say don’t say anything, OK? Don’t call me a liar.”

On Saturday in Gettysburg, Trump opened what was billed as a major policy address by saying he would sue all the women who have accused him of inappropriate sexual conduct. He has denied all such allegations.

His accusers, he said, had told “fabricated stories” that were part of a massive conspiracy perpetrated against him by Hillary Clinton’s campaign and the media.

“Every woman lied when they came forward to hurt my campaign, total fabrication,” he said, speaking hours before an 11th accuser, Jessica Drake, came forward at a press event in Los Angeles.

Trump also said “the events never happened” and added: “All of these liars will be sued after the election is over.”

Trump has threatened to sue over allegations of sexual misbehavior, most recently the New York Times. The Times general counsel replied in a letter earlier this month, explaining the paper would not retract its report.

“Nothing in our article has had the slightest effect on the reputation that Mr Trump, through his own words and actions, has already created for himself,” wrote Times general counsel David McCraw.

Trump’s wife threatened to sue People magazine for publishing the story of an alleged assault of its writer Natasha Stoynoff, an allegation that Donald Trump has denied.


Source
"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
plasmidghost
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
Belgium16168 Posts
October 24 2016 19:21 GMT
#115045
Off to vote in a few minutes, shame I live in Texas and it's gonna most likely go Trump so whomever I vote for doesn't matter unless I vote for Johnson to try to get the Libertarians federal funding
Yugoslavia will always live on in my heart
Nevuk
Profile Blog Joined March 2009
United States16280 Posts
October 24 2016 19:26 GMT
#115046
On October 25 2016 04:21 plasmidghost wrote:
Off to vote in a few minutes, shame I live in Texas and it's gonna most likely go Trump so whomever I vote for doesn't matter unless I vote for Johnson to try to get the Libertarians federal funding

Trump isn't up very much in the polls in Texas
oneofthem
Profile Blog Joined November 2005
Cayman Islands24199 Posts
October 24 2016 19:28 GMT
#115047
On October 25 2016 03:02 LegalLord wrote:
Rebuilding a new economy that is more robust for the future is much, much harder than dragging your feet on an old system and pretending the "clean coal" unicorn exists. You have to find a lot of investment, get people to accept that they will lose their jobs and possibly get worse ones, and in the case of coal, you also have to put a lot of effort into actually closing the mines (a mine that is neither operational nor properly sealed is going to be an environmental catastrophe shortly). Tough stuff and it always takes one eternity to make the transition.

you sound like hillary there.

We have fed the heart on fantasies, the heart's grown brutal from the fare, more substance in our enmities than in our love
TheTenthDoc
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States9561 Posts
October 24 2016 19:28 GMT
#115048
On October 25 2016 04:21 plasmidghost wrote:
Off to vote in a few minutes, shame I live in Texas and it's gonna most likely go Trump so whomever I vote for doesn't matter unless I vote for Johnson to try to get the Libertarians federal funding


There's a not-insignificant change it flips. Right now it's hovering around 4-7 points Trump favored if you believe the state polls (with some outliers either way) so if a bombshell drops it could flip. Just like Florida/NC are still flippable towards Trump is something crazy happens.
Blisse
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Canada3710 Posts
October 24 2016 19:30 GMT
#115049
re: conspiracy theory things, there's also a massive problem in that every single person really doesn't like being wrong.

Your brain is wired to make decisions and it can't function if it's doubting itself all the time. So instead it tries to warp reality to make itself seem right, which is where you get logical fallacies, where you get stuff like moving the goal posts, where you see yourself making excuses that have no basis in reality. It takes concentrated effort to realize these are wrong, and it's a lot harder to get concentrated effort because the Internet let's you connect with all these other people who perpetuate your own views. You often need a very humanizing event to shatter the illusion because the brain will just take whatever contrary statistics or figures or authoritive statements and warp them into something consistent with its views, whereas humanizing events are so completely inconsistent that it makes the mind rethink itself.

It's all really cool pseudoscience because it's so hard to quantify this.

There's also a definite problem with the move to largely ads revenue media where the incentive for outlets is to drive in consistent viewership, which is easier to do by leaning articles harder in one direction or the other, opinion articles, clickbait titles, promoting more popular candidates, etc, etc. The articles themselves may be neutral in tone but the presentation definitely is open to bias.
There is no one like you in the universe.
Logo
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United States7542 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-10-24 19:33:37
October 24 2016 19:32 GMT
#115050
What are people's opinions on https://kotlikoff2016.com/ ? (Yes I found him via 538 and sorry if he was already brought up today).

I'm not quite sure what to make of his tax proposal, it sounds simultaneously plausibly good and totally out there.

But considering my state has a <1% chance to go against Hillary I was sort of interested in voting 3rd party. But then Johnson and Stein are pretty ridiculous and are only less bad than Trump because they're not modern day sewer goblins.

But a 3rd party vote for a somewhat reasonable dude in a state that's already Hillary's seems somewhat appealing. Then again I want Trump to get crushed in the popular vote so there's no ambiguity or complaining about the results so Idk.
Logo
KwarK
Profile Blog Joined July 2006
United States42975 Posts
October 24 2016 19:35 GMT
#115051
On October 25 2016 04:26 Nevuk wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 25 2016 04:21 plasmidghost wrote:
Off to vote in a few minutes, shame I live in Texas and it's gonna most likely go Trump so whomever I vote for doesn't matter unless I vote for Johnson to try to get the Libertarians federal funding

Trump isn't up very much in the polls in Texas

Texas isn't in play and if Texas were in play then it certainly wouldn't be the decider, there's no world in which Texas is close but Hillary hasn't already won. Let him vote Libertarian, it's a smart play tactically in Texas.
ModeratorThe angels have the phone box
Thieving Magpie
Profile Blog Joined December 2012
United States6752 Posts
October 24 2016 19:38 GMT
#115052
On October 25 2016 03:02 LegalLord wrote:
Rebuilding a new economy that is more robust for the future is much, much harder than dragging your feet on an old system and pretending the "clean coal" unicorn exists. You have to find a lot of investment, get people to accept that they will lose their jobs and possibly get worse ones, and in the case of coal, you also have to put a lot of effort into actually closing the mines (a mine that is neither operational nor properly sealed is going to be an environmental catastrophe shortly). Tough stuff and it always takes one eternity to make the transition.


Its a bit too simplistic to say it like that, although it gets about as close as most politicians will ever want to admit to the problem.

Imagine a population in a region's current economy. That population breaks down into simple to grok groups.

W People Working in a Primary Industry (Example, Coal)
X People Training to be in that Industry (Example, Coal)
Y People Working in supporting that Industry (Restaurants and services for coal workers)
Z People Working/Training for a non-Primary Industry

When W + X are bigger than Y + Z, the population will NEVER negotiate. And the reason is because too many of the non-coal industries feel dependent on the coal industry.

Telling them to reduce W + X is not going to happen because telling people they should give up on all the work and sacrifices they've been making for the past 10-20 years will always meet resistance--which is why you get their resistance to any and all regulation, all trade deals, and anything that would effect energy prices.

Increasing the value of Z + Y is the better option, but doing so is hard because its an expenditure issue. How much money will need to be spent to convince a new industry (google for example) to go to coal country?

You can say "education, education solves all!" because where would they go? Get someone a CS degree who lives in coal country and he'll take the first flight to SF/NY/Seattle at a moments notice.

How about convincing tech companies to move to coal country? Suddenly its mass tax cuts to corporations, revenue for coal country tanks, taxes gets stacked on the middle class as programs get cut and you end up with the issues coal country has today.

Gamers know the solution to issues like this, the game state has stalled out and needs to be reset. Get the gunk out of the board and start from scratch. Except this is real life and telling people that are 5-10 years from retiring that they need to either start from scratch or be homeless is not always going to get you the highest of praise.
Hark, what baseball through yonder window breaks?
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United Kingdom13775 Posts
October 24 2016 19:39 GMT
#115053
On October 25 2016 04:28 oneofthem wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 25 2016 03:02 LegalLord wrote:
Rebuilding a new economy that is more robust for the future is much, much harder than dragging your feet on an old system and pretending the "clean coal" unicorn exists. You have to find a lot of investment, get people to accept that they will lose their jobs and possibly get worse ones, and in the case of coal, you also have to put a lot of effort into actually closing the mines (a mine that is neither operational nor properly sealed is going to be an environmental catastrophe shortly). Tough stuff and it always takes one eternity to make the transition.

you sound like hillary there.


Let's just be real, half the people who aren't voting for me are just fags and no one cares about them.
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
plasmidghost
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
Belgium16168 Posts
October 24 2016 19:39 GMT
#115054
On October 25 2016 04:35 KwarK wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 25 2016 04:26 Nevuk wrote:
On October 25 2016 04:21 plasmidghost wrote:
Off to vote in a few minutes, shame I live in Texas and it's gonna most likely go Trump so whomever I vote for doesn't matter unless I vote for Johnson to try to get the Libertarians federal funding

Trump isn't up very much in the polls in Texas

Texas isn't in play and if Texas were in play then it certainly wouldn't be the decider, there's no world in which Texas is close but Hillary hasn't already won. Let him vote Libertarian, it's a smart play tactically in Texas.

I like the libertarian approach to government but the problem is that their economic policies would cause massive abuse of the working class by corporations. However, if a third voice starts to rise in the country, I think it will be a net positive for the future, even if I disagree with it
Yugoslavia will always live on in my heart
zlefin
Profile Blog Joined October 2012
United States7689 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-10-24 19:42:17
October 24 2016 19:41 GMT
#115055
logo ->
never heard of him; I don't see a tax proposal in text form; and I don't wanna watch the video to see what's in it.
If he seems somewhat reasonable it might be because he hasn't had that much scrutiny, or like, none at all. It's easy to look good when noone's going after you.
If you can link to the text of some of his proposals I'll take a look.
Great read: http://shorensteincenter.org/news-coverage-2016-general-election/ great book on democracy: http://press.princeton.edu/titles/10671.html zlefin is grumpier due to long term illness. Ignoring some users.
Logo
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United States7542 Posts
October 24 2016 19:43 GMT
#115056
On October 25 2016 04:39 plasmidghost wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 25 2016 04:35 KwarK wrote:
On October 25 2016 04:26 Nevuk wrote:
On October 25 2016 04:21 plasmidghost wrote:
Off to vote in a few minutes, shame I live in Texas and it's gonna most likely go Trump so whomever I vote for doesn't matter unless I vote for Johnson to try to get the Libertarians federal funding

Trump isn't up very much in the polls in Texas

Texas isn't in play and if Texas were in play then it certainly wouldn't be the decider, there's no world in which Texas is close but Hillary hasn't already won. Let him vote Libertarian, it's a smart play tactically in Texas.

I like the libertarian approach to government but the problem is that their economic policies would cause massive abuse of the working class by corporations. However, if a third voice starts to rise in the country, I think it will be a net positive for the future, even if I disagree with it


I abhor a lot of the Libertarian views, especially after reading certain Johnson policy positions (like saying that the international market forces will responsible regular fish stocks), but I would still say that substituting Libertarian party for the Republican party would be a net benefit. I'd really prefer a world where the main party differences are about fiscal conservatism/free markets vs regulation & social/future investments over one where we have to endless vote based on one party creating laws that are anti minorities, gay, and trans people.
Logo
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
October 24 2016 19:47 GMT
#115057
BURLINGTON, Vt. — Sen. Bernie Sanders, a loyal soldier for Hillary Clinton since he conceded the Democratic presidential nomination in July, plans to push liberal legislation with like-minded senators with or without Clinton’s support if she is elected — and to aggressively oppose appointments that do not pass muster with the party’s left wing.

In an interview, Sanders said he and other senators have started plotting legislation that would achieve many of the proposals that fueled his insurgent run for president, including a $15 federal minimum wage, tuition-free public college, an end to “mass incarceration” and aggressive steps to fight climate change.

The senators, Sanders said, also plan to push for the breakup of “too big to fail” banks and to pressure Clinton to appoint liberals to key Cabinet positions, including Treasury secretary. Sanders said he would not stay silent if Clinton nominated the “same old, same old Wall Street guys” to regulatory positions that are important in enacting and overseeing the financial reforms he supports.

“I will be vigorously in opposition, and I will make that very clear,” Sanders said.

Sanders’s comments signal that, if she wins the presidency Nov. 8, Clinton may have to contend not only with Republicans who oppose her agenda but also with liberals in her own party who were not excited by her campaign and have long feared that she plans to govern as a centrist.

It remains to be seen how much sway Sanders will have in January, but he is in line to take over the chairmanship of one of the Senate’s major committees if Democrats regain control of the chamber. Aides to some of the senators he said are working with him suggested that less of a coordinated effort is underway.

The proposals Sanders plans to push are contained within the Democratic Party’s 51-page platform, a document that he and his allies were instrumental in drafting in the run-up to the party’s convention in Philadelphia in July. Although in the past the party platform has often been quickly forgotten, Sanders’s role in shaping it was key to his decision to support Clinton, and he has long planned to pressure her to follow through with action in the White House.

Progressive groups have questioned whether Clinton will fully embrace such initiatives as president and where they might fall on her priority list, particularly as she faces a divided Congress and makes outreach to Republicans a focus of her campaign. Clinton did not embrace some of the policies contained in the party platform as a candidate in the primary cycle, but she has since signaled her support.

Sanders said he considers it his job “to demand that the Democratic Party implement that platform.”

The iconoclastic senator from Vermont, whose long-shot presidential campaign turned him into a national celebrity, shared his plans Friday during a candid and lengthy interview in his home town.

In recent weeks, Sanders has stumped for Clinton, traveling the country to rally skeptical progressives and others around her bid to defeat Republican nominee Donald Trump. But during the conversation in his office here, it became clear that Sanders is ready to reassert himself within the Democratic Party.


Source
"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
Sermokala
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United States13990 Posts
October 24 2016 19:48 GMT
#115058


I thought this was a great video to watch to understand why republicans and democrats act the way they do and the fundamental way power works in human societies and hasn't changed fundamentally for a long time.
A wise man will say that he knows nothing. We're gona party like its 2752 Hail Dark Brandon
Logo
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United States7542 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-10-24 19:49:38
October 24 2016 19:48 GMT
#115059
On October 25 2016 04:41 zlefin wrote:
logo ->
never heard of him; I don't see a tax proposal in text form; and I don't wanna watch the video to see what's in it.
If he seems somewhat reasonable it might be because he hasn't had that much scrutiny, or like, none at all. It's easy to look good when noone's going after you.
If you can link to the text of some of his proposals I'll take a look.


https://kotlikoff2016.com/fixing-taxes/

The general gist that piqued my interest is he wants to start accounting generational costs (as inaccurate as those estimates tend to be).

Here's a bit about it from the 538 article:


The animating principle behind Kotlikoff’s campaign is simple: Today’s Americans are running up a huge bill — both literal and figurative — and leaving the next generation to pay it. On fiscal policy, Kotlikoff thinks that official government budget estimates vastly understate the future cost of Social Security, Medicare and other programs. On foreign relations, Kotlikoff argues that by letting North Korea develop nuclear weapons, the U.S. is leaving a far less secure world for future generations. And on climate change, Kotlikoff believes not only that the U.S. is failing to take the threat seriously, but also that many well-intentioned policies are making the problem worse.

“We’re not disclosing honestly the burdens that we’re leaving for our kids,” Kotlikoff said. “I don’t think we can just leave our kids at risk.”

Kotlikoff is known among economists for what is called “generational accounting,” which is the idea that the government should evaluate policies based on how they will affect spending and revenue far into the future — much further than the 10-year budget window that is standard now. For example, the government has promised to pay Social Security benefits for Americans working today; paying those benefits will fall to the next generation of Americans, yet that obligation doesn’t show up on the government’s balance sheet. Kotlikoff estimates that if we account for the full cost of all the government’s long-term obligations, projected out into the distant future, the true “fiscal gap” between what we owe and what we collect in tax revenue is about $200 trillion, more than 15 times the official national debt.


Source: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/meet-the-economist-running-for-president/

Anyways I don't know enough about tax policies to evaluate them well, but the guiding principals sounded good at least.

@StealthBlue I'm pretty excited about that. Like Hillary presidency seems pretty hoo-hum, but one where she has to bend to the will of Bernie/Warren and their supporters suddenly gets a lot more interesting.
Logo
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United Kingdom13775 Posts
October 24 2016 19:49 GMT
#115060
You know, we all thought that debate #3 was brutally and utterly one-sided. The polls seem to suggest that their net effect was pretty much nil. Maybe Trump hit his floor already.

Then again, we all basically said the election would be decided by debate #1, and it seems that that is pretty much the case. After the first debate Trump never really recovered.
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
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