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Read the rules in the OP before posting, please. In order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a re-read to refresh your memory! The vast majority of you are contributing in a healthy way, keep it up! NOTE: When providing a source, explain why you feel it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion if it's not obvious. Also take note that unsubstantiated tweets/posts meant only to rekindle old arguments can result in a mod action. | ||
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Nyxisto
Germany6287 Posts
On October 17 2016 13:36 Nevuk wrote: Kasich is pretty perfectly positioned on this front for 2020 Are they going to implement super delegates or something? Because if it's a pure plebiscite I think it's going to be some Trump like candidate again in 2020 | ||
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
On October 17 2016 13:36 Nevuk wrote: Kasich is pretty perfectly positioned on this front for 2020 Kasich can run on the "Trump spoiler" platform or talk about how good he was working for the Lehman Brothers. | ||
KwarK
United States43262 Posts
On October 17 2016 13:55 Nyxisto wrote: Are they going to implement super delegates or something? Because if it's a pure plebiscite I think it's going to be some Trump like candidate again in 2020 What if it was literally Trump again? :D | ||
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
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ChristianS
United States3257 Posts
On October 17 2016 13:42 Buckyman wrote: Last I saw, Gary Johnson was ahead of both Trump and Clinton with the under 25 crowd. But aggregators like 538 take that into account, and in fact, that would probably lend itself toward the polls favoring Clinton more, not less, since 3rd party supporters tend to move to main parties as the election gets closer. I think a lot of that has happened, actually, and Johnson support has dropped a lot in the last month or so (that's one of the reasons Clinton gained quite a bit after the first debate). | ||
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GGTeMpLaR
United States7226 Posts
His entire image is built up on 'winning' so if he doesn't beat Clinton he just looks like a loser fraud | ||
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
On October 17 2016 14:15 GGTeMpLaR wrote: I don't think Trump can run again in 2020 if he isn't already President. His entire image is built up on 'winning' so if he doesn't beat Clinton he just looks like a loser fraud Back when he was criticizing Romney for not winning, I thought, "man, this is going to backfire if you get slaughtered in the general election, which is the most probable result right now." | ||
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GGTeMpLaR
United States7226 Posts
On October 17 2016 14:17 LegalLord wrote: Back when he was criticizing Romney for not winning, I thought, "man, this is going to backfire if you get slaughtered in the general election, which is the most probable result right now." Exactly. He's all-in at this point. If it doesn't work there's no come-back | ||
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ChristianS
United States3257 Posts
On October 17 2016 14:15 GGTeMpLaR wrote: I don't think Trump can run again in 2020 if he isn't already President. His entire image is built up on 'winning' so if he doesn't beat Clinton he just looks like a loser fraud I tend to agree. There's something kind of clever in building your whole brand on "winning." People will want to undermine that narrative to beat you, but to undermine it they need to have already beaten you. I do think that it makes it so when he's losing in the polls he kind of doesn't have a leg to stand on. If the widespread reporting says "Trump is losing," then he doesn't seem like so much of a winner, which is part of why he has to do so much of what basically equates to a little kid shouting "YOU CHEATED!" when they're behind. But at least if he comes back in polls then people can think it was all some n-dimensional chess and he was actually winning the whole time. But most of the time when someone is the nominee and they lose, they can't get nominated again because everyone remembers them as that guy that lost. I think that effect will be greatly magnified for Trump, given that unlike someone like Romney, his whole thing was winning. | ||
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KwarK
United States43262 Posts
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Nevuk
United States16280 Posts
On October 17 2016 14:01 LegalLord wrote: Kasich can run on the "Trump spoiler" platform or talk about how good he was working for the Lehman Brothers. Isn't that a plus for the GOP? | ||
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oBlade
United States5770 Posts
On October 17 2016 13:55 Nyxisto wrote: Are they going to implement super delegates or something? Because if it's a pure plebiscite I think it's going to be some Trump like candidate again in 2020 It's possible, but probably not in 2020. What you have to understand is since the last time one party held the White House for more than two terms (Reagan->GHWB), there has been a latent understanding among the electorate that the government has no idea what it's doing and needs a severe overhaul. This is why Ross Perot had such wide appeal and after his failure so many people are still interested in pushing to elect an outsider and a billionaire and want to show it's possible. Trump is one of the only people in America who has both the business empire and the star power to barge in like this. Whether you never liked him, he's an American fixture. It's not just chance that he won the nomination, his candidacy isn't random; that is, he's not an unknown, he's always wanted to run and people knew that. A similar person would be Arnold, if he were constitutionally eligible, but in a sad twist of fate he can only be president of The Apprentice. Really, other than Trump, if you look at anyone who has speculated or considered running, there's nobody else coming up on the Republican bench who isn't a politician. There's some others like Bloomberg who could be (D) or especially go as an independent and fail, but Republicans, I'm not so sure. It would have to be some kind of Fiorina candidate who was actually good, it would be neat to try and brainstorm though. James Woods? Trump has tried to be basically every recent candidate at once, this will be a simplification but I think it has some truth: Reagan, the old guy from TV who can Make America Great Again; Obama, the change candidate; GWB, the guy with a funny way of talking; Perot, the billionaire; maybe Nixon, the scandalous asshole. He's no JFK, these are just some quirks I can't help but notice. I supremely doubt either candidate (or Sanders) can run again in 2020 except the incumbent (and whoever it is might face a party challenger too). Either challenging field will be wide. Republicans, because it was wide this season. Democrats, because they have nobody left, everyone has expired (Clinton, Kerry, Sanders, Biden, Gore). | ||
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Biff The Understudy
France7917 Posts
Read that article about white nationalist former leader Derek Black and thought about this discussion. Can't recommend it enough  | ||
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Danglars
United States12133 Posts
On October 17 2016 11:06 Liquid`Jinro wrote: Actually, I read the post you were replying to, I wanted to initially respond to that but you seemed to be in agreement with him on the part I disagreed with (that betting on an election is morally wrong) so I replied to you instead. I don't post in this thread much because I don't know enough about politics to contribute, but I've read this thread continuously for the past month or so, it moves incredibly fast, to the point that I often end up wanting to write something only to find that there's 3 new pages by the time I've finished reading/digesting what I wanted to reply to. I say this to point out that I try not to frivolously interject into ongoing discussions. One thing I will say is that opening my post the way I did was a bad choice, because it reads a lot more antagonistic than it should (probably a case of me letting my bias show through in terms of how I view the topic of gambling compared to the original post). The original version of that post actually opened with "I love" so you got the less passive aggressive version!!  I used to always have the chance to catch up,respond to three things, and follow my own discussion of interest, but now I'm having trouble even keeping up reading! Outside-of-livereport-debate hundreds and hundreds. It's like you're done composing and check the thread and not only is the topic done, but two more have been passed through and we're onto the fourth. | ||
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ChristianS
United States3257 Posts
On October 17 2016 14:27 KwarK wrote: Except we're talking about the RealityisRigged demographic. Trump won't be the loser who lost an unlosable year to them. He'll be the great leader who was clearly cheated by the electoral system which counts votes and not crowds. I think if he ran again in 2020 he'd probably be able to take the primary. Sure, half the Republican party and anyone not in the Republican party would be laughing at him. But the others, the deplorables, they'll stand by him until he tells them to stand down. I dunno. At the end of the day, he didn't say "I'm the best candidate, so I should win." He said "I know how to win, I'm going to win." Even if the game was rigged, if he was as good as he says he is, he should have either not promised to win, or gone ahead and won anyway. Even to the deplorables demographic, there are promises Trump has made that they care about, and breaking those promises will undermine their support. And winning this election was one of the biggest ones. | ||
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Biff The Understudy
France7917 Posts
On October 17 2016 14:36 oBlade wrote: It's possible, but probably not in 2020. What you have to understand is since the last time one party held the White House for more than two terms (Reagan->GHWB), there has been a latent understanding among the electorate that the government has no idea what it's doing and needs a severe overhaul. This is why Ross Perot had such wide appeal and after his failure so many people are still interested in pushing to elect an outsider and a billionaire and want to show it's possible. Trump is one of the only people in America who has both the business empire and the star power to barge in like this. Whether you never liked him, he's an American fixture. It's not just chance that he won the nomination, his candidacy isn't random; that is, he's not an unknown, he's always wanted to run and people knew that. A similar person would be Arnold, if he were constitutionally eligible, but in a sad twist of fate he can only be president of The Apprentice. Really, other than Trump, if you look at anyone who has speculated or considered running, there's nobody else coming up on the Republican bench who isn't a politician. There's some others like Bloomberg who could be (D) or especially go as an independent and fail, but Republicans, I'm not so sure. It would have to be some kind of Fiorina candidate who was actually good, it would be neat to try and brainstorm though. James Woods? Trump has tried to be basically every recent candidate at once, this will be a simplification but I think it has some truth: Reagan, the old guy from TV who can Make America Great Again; Obama, the change candidate; GWB, the guy with a funny way of talking; Perot, the billionaire; maybe Nixon, the scandalous asshole. He's no JFK, these are just some quirks I can't help but notice. I supremely doubt either candidate (or Sanders) can run again in 2020 except the incumbent (and whoever it is might face a party challenger too). Either challenging field will be wide. Republicans, because it was wide this season. Democrats, because they have nobody left, everyone has expired (Clinton, Kerry, Sanders, Biden, Gore). Dems are likely to have a bunch of new figures in 4 years, especially with the seats they will win in three weeks. Also remember that Obama went from being unknown into being one of the most charismatic and gifted president in modern era in only a couple of years. But anyway it will be Clinton in 2020 unless she loses which is possible but extremely unlikely. The Reps are fucked. The reps that are not total clowns will have to win primaries, and it looks like the base is completely out if touch with reality. I think one will need to pull the same conspirational crap, the same white resentment trick and the same serial lies than Trump to win the GOP primaries. No one knows how it will end but i don't see the gop winning a presidential election for at least a decade. The tea party and Trump have completely destroyed it. | ||
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oBlade
United States5770 Posts
On October 17 2016 14:45 Biff The Understudy wrote: Dems are likely to have a bunch of new figures in 4 years, especially with the seats they will win in three weeks. Also remember that Obama went from being unknown into being one of the most charismatic and gifted president in modern era in only a couple of years. Yes, a wide field, I said that. What's the point of Obama being unknown? He was a senator. All politicians are unknown until they run and people notice their faces on TV. If you're a complete outsider, so someone "Trumpian," you need mitigating factors, like being a magnate and celebrity. Not so if you're a politician. On October 17 2016 14:45 Biff The Understudy wrote: The Reps are fucked. The reps that are not total clowns will have to win primaries, and it looks like the base is completely out if touch with reality. I think one will need to pull the same conspirational crap, the same white resentment trick and the same serial lies than Trump to win the GOP primaries. GOP politicians don't need to do, well, whatever that for the sake of argument I won't dispute you think Trump did, to win. Somebody always wins. And in this case, this means a Republican who, as you say, isn't a total clown, like Mitt Romney or Ted Cruz or Mike Pence, someone that all the anti-Trump people who never have and never will even consider voting Republican anyway, can be happy with. | ||
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KwarK
United States43262 Posts
On October 17 2016 15:03 oBlade wrote: this means a Republican who isn't a total clown like Ted Cruz or Mike Pence I think it's not too early to start placing bets on the 2020 election. | ||
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oBlade
United States5770 Posts
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Orcasgt24
Canada3238 Posts
On October 17 2016 15:07 KwarK wrote: I think it's not too early to start placing bets on the 2020 election. Don't forget the 2020 election will have Lindsay Lohan and Kanye West running for the head of state! Maybe sooner because I can't picture a world where either Trump or Clinton manage to go the full term without getting impeached,arrested or overthrown. | ||
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