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US Politics Mega-thread - Page 3768

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Read the rules in the OP before posting, please.

In order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a re-read to refresh your memory! The vast majority of you are contributing in a healthy way, keep it up!

NOTE: When providing a source, explain why you feel it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion if it's not obvious.
Also take note that unsubstantiated tweets/posts meant only to rekindle old arguments can result in a mod action.
oneofthem
Profile Blog Joined November 2005
Cayman Islands24199 Posts
May 08 2016 03:22 GMT
#75341
i find it hilarious how obama has to deal with the likes of sanders and trump at the twilight of his term. it's like, so pomo
We have fed the heart on fantasies, the heart's grown brutal from the fare, more substance in our enmities than in our love
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United Kingdom13775 Posts
May 08 2016 03:28 GMT
#75342
I dunno, I could see this turning into a "best case scenario" for the Dems if everything goes at least decently well. If Sanders makes a deal with the DNC and Trump derails the Republican Congressional elections then everything could go great. Would be a great end to his presidency.
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
oneofthem
Profile Blog Joined November 2005
Cayman Islands24199 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-05-08 04:13:44
May 08 2016 03:32 GMT
#75343
obama is this hyper-rationalist guy who really believes in the power of reason and first order engagement with the content of ideas. bernie and trump are optics and identity driven and intentionally or unintentionally, appeal to the irrational and emotional.

it's not even about party balance etc but the future of democracy. with increasing complexity and alienation of the governing experts vs people equipped by internets etc to have a lot of informationally closed groups.
We have fed the heart on fantasies, the heart's grown brutal from the fare, more substance in our enmities than in our love
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
May 08 2016 03:47 GMT
#75344
"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
ticklishmusic
Profile Blog Joined August 2011
United States15977 Posts
May 08 2016 03:56 GMT
#75345
On May 08 2016 10:48 Mohdoo wrote:
The GOP is like a better version of the civil war super hero movie. Bob Dole vs Bush is pretty hype.


idk that was one of the better marvel movies
(╯°□°)╯︵ ┻━┻
Nyxisto
Profile Joined August 2010
Germany6287 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-05-08 04:10:07
May 08 2016 04:09 GMT
#75346
On May 08 2016 12:32 oneofthem wrote:
obama is this hyper-rationalist guy who really believes in the power of reason and first order engagement with the content of ideas. bernie and trump are optics and identity driven and intentionally or unintentionally, appeals to the irrational and emotional.

it's not even about party balance etc but the future of democracy. with increasing complexity and alienation of the governing experts vs people equipped by internets etc to have a lot of informationally closed groups.


yes the whole "we just need to throw the information out" idea kind of didn't work. The internet seems to be pretty abysmal at making people smarter, which raises the question how democracy is supposed to work at all if no form of discourse actually works
TMagpie
Profile Joined June 2015
265 Posts
May 08 2016 04:23 GMT
#75347
On May 08 2016 13:09 Nyxisto wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 08 2016 12:32 oneofthem wrote:
obama is this hyper-rationalist guy who really believes in the power of reason and first order engagement with the content of ideas. bernie and trump are optics and identity driven and intentionally or unintentionally, appeals to the irrational and emotional.

it's not even about party balance etc but the future of democracy. with increasing complexity and alienation of the governing experts vs people equipped by internets etc to have a lot of informationally closed groups.


yes the whole "we just need to throw the information out" idea kind of didn't work. The internet seems to be pretty abysmal at making people smarter, which raises the question how democracy is supposed to work at all if no form of discourse actually works


There's a reason early democracy was an "educated only" club
OtherWorld
Profile Blog Joined October 2013
France17333 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-05-08 06:23:39
May 08 2016 06:23 GMT
#75348
On May 08 2016 13:09 Nyxisto wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 08 2016 12:32 oneofthem wrote:
obama is this hyper-rationalist guy who really believes in the power of reason and first order engagement with the content of ideas. bernie and trump are optics and identity driven and intentionally or unintentionally, appeals to the irrational and emotional.

it's not even about party balance etc but the future of democracy. with increasing complexity and alienation of the governing experts vs people equipped by internets etc to have a lot of informationally closed groups.


yes the whole "we just need to throw the information out" idea kind of didn't work. The internet seems to be pretty abysmal at making people smarter, which raises the question how democracy is supposed to work at all if no form of discourse actually works

I heard there's a wonderful invention called school. It's supposed to educate children based on government-approved values, and feed them with (most of the time) correct and factual information, so that they become respectful and rational citizens instead of dickheads.
Sadly, that invention is working about as well as democracy right now ):
Used Sigs - New Sigs - Cheap Sigs - Buy the Best Cheap Sig near You at www.cheapsigforsale.com
GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States23209 Posts
May 08 2016 07:01 GMT
#75349
Part of the negativity voters feel toward Clinton and Trump probably has something to do with growing political polarization in our country. But polarization doesn’t explain everything. If Trump and Clinton’s strongly unfavorable ratings were simply a byproduct of polarized politics, you’d expect them to have high “strongly favorable” ratings too. They don’t. You can see this in their net strong favorability ratings (the “strongly favorable” rating minus the “strongly unfavorable” rating):

[image loading]


No major party nominee before Clinton or Trump had a double-digit net negative “strong favorability” rating. Clinton’s would be the lowest ever, except for Trump.

In previous cycles, the nominees of each party almost always had a strongly favorable and unfavorable rating within 10 percentage points of each other. The only exception was Michael Dukakis in 1988; only 19 percent of Americans felt strongly about Dukakis, either favorably or unfavorably. Over 50 percent of Americans give Clinton and Trump either a “strongly favorable” or “strongly unfavorable” rating, and most of that feeling is negative.


Article
"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
RenSC2
Profile Blog Joined August 2011
United States1057 Posts
May 08 2016 07:34 GMT
#75350
On May 08 2016 16:01 GreenHorizons wrote:
Show nested quote +
Part of the negativity voters feel toward Clinton and Trump probably has something to do with growing political polarization in our country. But polarization doesn’t explain everything. If Trump and Clinton’s strongly unfavorable ratings were simply a byproduct of polarized politics, you’d expect them to have high “strongly favorable” ratings too. They don’t. You can see this in their net strong favorability ratings (the “strongly favorable” rating minus the “strongly unfavorable” rating):

[image loading]


No major party nominee before Clinton or Trump had a double-digit net negative “strong favorability” rating. Clinton’s would be the lowest ever, except for Trump.

In previous cycles, the nominees of each party almost always had a strongly favorable and unfavorable rating within 10 percentage points of each other. The only exception was Michael Dukakis in 1988; only 19 percent of Americans felt strongly about Dukakis, either favorably or unfavorably. Over 50 percent of Americans give Clinton and Trump either a “strongly favorable” or “strongly unfavorable” rating, and most of that feeling is negative.


Article

The high water mark is Dukakis. How'd that work out? Favorable vs unfavorable might not be the greatest measure of future success.

I would say that polarization is part of what we see, but the main culprit is something new due to social media. I'd call it the hyper repeated information cycle. In the past, each party would throw as much crap as possible at the other party's candidate and they'd spend a lot of money for just a tiny bit of exposure through traditional media. Candidates under attack could defend and counter the mainstream attacks.

However, in today's social media environment, anyone can attack for free daily and often the attacks no longer even originate from opposite parties. If Trump says something dubious about Mexicans, it gets played on mainstream media, but then it also gets turned into memes and played over and over again through social media until everyone has heard it.

Then add on that the positive things that someone does are not repeated anywhere near as much as the negative things. So whoever is the front-runner is going to be constantly bombarded to the point that a candidate can't respond and the vast majority of it will be negative.

It's nearly impossible to not have an opinion on Trump with his name constantly being thrown in your face. You're either part of the relatively small group that likes him and can personally overlook/defend his indiscretions or you dislike him. There's no more "he's okay" or "I don't know". The same is true for Clinton.

What you end up with is that any front-runner is going to be viewed negatively overall in modern presidential elections. I don't think any major candidate will escape that fate in the foreseeable future. If Sanders ever took the lead, the relatively small group of vocal supporters would be drowned out by the masses of anti-Sanders memes that would get repeated ad nauseam and his favorability rating would tank.
Playing better than standard requires deviation. This divergence usually results in sub-standard play.
WhiteDog
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
France8650 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-05-08 10:42:44
May 08 2016 10:42 GMT
#75351
On May 08 2016 16:01 GreenHorizons wrote:
Show nested quote +
Part of the negativity voters feel toward Clinton and Trump probably has something to do with growing political polarization in our country. But polarization doesn’t explain everything. If Trump and Clinton’s strongly unfavorable ratings were simply a byproduct of polarized politics, you’d expect them to have high “strongly favorable” ratings too. They don’t. You can see this in their net strong favorability ratings (the “strongly favorable” rating minus the “strongly unfavorable” rating):

[image loading]


No major party nominee before Clinton or Trump had a double-digit net negative “strong favorability” rating. Clinton’s would be the lowest ever, except for Trump.

In previous cycles, the nominees of each party almost always had a strongly favorable and unfavorable rating within 10 percentage points of each other. The only exception was Michael Dukakis in 1988; only 19 percent of Americans felt strongly about Dukakis, either favorably or unfavorably. Over 50 percent of Americans give Clinton and Trump either a “strongly favorable” or “strongly unfavorable” rating, and most of that feeling is negative.


Article

This kind of situation is actually really bad, because whoever will be elected, he or she will have unsufficient legitimacy and will be have trouble doing anything due to oppsition in the congress / by the civil society.
"every time WhiteDog overuses the word "seriously" in a comment I can make an observation on his fragile emotional state." MoltkeWarding
Mohdoo
Profile Joined August 2007
United States15677 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-05-08 15:12:50
May 08 2016 15:08 GMT
#75352
On May 08 2016 19:42 WhiteDog wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 08 2016 16:01 GreenHorizons wrote:
Part of the negativity voters feel toward Clinton and Trump probably has something to do with growing political polarization in our country. But polarization doesn’t explain everything. If Trump and Clinton’s strongly unfavorable ratings were simply a byproduct of polarized politics, you’d expect them to have high “strongly favorable” ratings too. They don’t. You can see this in their net strong favorability ratings (the “strongly favorable” rating minus the “strongly unfavorable” rating):

[image loading]


No major party nominee before Clinton or Trump had a double-digit net negative “strong favorability” rating. Clinton’s would be the lowest ever, except for Trump.

In previous cycles, the nominees of each party almost always had a strongly favorable and unfavorable rating within 10 percentage points of each other. The only exception was Michael Dukakis in 1988; only 19 percent of Americans felt strongly about Dukakis, either favorably or unfavorably. Over 50 percent of Americans give Clinton and Trump either a “strongly favorable” or “strongly unfavorable” rating, and most of that feeling is negative.


Article

This kind of situation is actually really bad, because whoever will be elected, he or she will have unsufficient legitimacy and will be have trouble doing anything due to oppsition in the congress / by the civil society.


I think the democratic party is smart enough to see this massive opportunity right in front of them. Bernie support in the democratic party would be insane. I think they will realize they have so much to lose and so much to gain and will find a good way to bring a lot of Sanders' supporters into the party. Not all, perhaps not even most, but a huge chunk.
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
May 08 2016 15:17 GMT
#75353
WASHINGTON (AP) — The United States will endorse a tougher tone with Israel in an upcoming international report that takes the Jewish state to task over settlements, demolitions and property seizures on land the Palestinians claim for a future state, diplomats told The Associated Press.

The U.S. and its fellow Mideast mediators also will chastise Palestinian leaders for failing to rein in anti-Israeli violence. But the diplomats involved in drafting the document said its primary focus will be a surge of construction in Jewish housing in the West Bank and east Jerusalem.

The U.S. approval of the harsh language marks a subtle shift. Washington has traditionally tempered statements by the so-called "Quartet" of mediators with careful diplomatic language, but the diplomats said the U.S. in this case will align itself closer to the positions of the European Union, Russia and the United Nations, who emphasize Israel's role in the Mideast impasse.

The report's release is sure to infuriate Israel, where officials are already bracing for expected criticism. And on the other side, although the mediators will endorse some long-standing Palestinian complaints, the Palestinians are likely to complain the report does not go far enough.

Diplomats acknowledge the report, which could come out in late May or June, will be largely symbolic, requiring no action. It could be unveiled at the U.N. and possibly sent to the Security Council for an endorsement, according to the diplomats, who included three U.S. officials. They all demanded anonymity because they weren't authorized to discuss the unfinished work publicly.

The diplomats said the report is intended to highlight obstacles to a two-state peace agreement — the stated goal of both Israeli and Palestinian leaders — and offer recommendations for restarting negotiations in a process that is stalled.

The Palestinians don't want talks as long as settlement construction continues; the Israelis say they're open to negotiations, but have shown little interest in making any meaningful concessions.


Source
"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
kwizach
Profile Joined June 2011
3658 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-05-08 15:44:01
May 08 2016 15:43 GMT
#75354
On May 08 2016 19:42 WhiteDog wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 08 2016 16:01 GreenHorizons wrote:
Part of the negativity voters feel toward Clinton and Trump probably has something to do with growing political polarization in our country. But polarization doesn’t explain everything. If Trump and Clinton’s strongly unfavorable ratings were simply a byproduct of polarized politics, you’d expect them to have high “strongly favorable” ratings too. They don’t. You can see this in their net strong favorability ratings (the “strongly favorable” rating minus the “strongly unfavorable” rating):

[image loading]


No major party nominee before Clinton or Trump had a double-digit net negative “strong favorability” rating. Clinton’s would be the lowest ever, except for Trump.

In previous cycles, the nominees of each party almost always had a strongly favorable and unfavorable rating within 10 percentage points of each other. The only exception was Michael Dukakis in 1988; only 19 percent of Americans felt strongly about Dukakis, either favorably or unfavorably. Over 50 percent of Americans give Clinton and Trump either a “strongly favorable” or “strongly unfavorable” rating, and most of that feeling is negative.


Article

This kind of situation is actually really bad, because whoever will be elected, he or she will have unsufficient legitimacy and will be have trouble doing anything due to oppsition in the congress / by the civil society.

Obama was elected with an incredibly high favorability rating, and that didn't stop Republicans from stonewalling him from the start and winning back the House in the 2010 elections. These ratings are fluid, and if Sanders finally stops attacking her dishonestly, makes a deal with her and starts campaigning for her after June 7, you'll see them go up progressively (they would probably already be substantially higher if he hadn't been doing the GOP's job for them for a few months). This election is actually a great occasion for Republicans to realize they need to progressively stop with their obstructionism on various issues, since it has led them to Trump being the nominee of their party.

Also: this is too good. Yes Palin, please fan the flames while Trump tries to achieve some form of unity
Sarah Palin says Paul Ryan will soon be ‘Cantored’

Sarah Palin said in a television interview broadcast Sunday that she will support Speaker Paul Ryan's primary challenger, and she compared Ryan to former House majority leader Eric Cantor (Va.), who was stunningly defeated in a 2014 primary.

"I think Paul Ryan is soon to be 'Cantored,'" Palin said on CNN's "State of the Union." Cantor lost his primary to now-Rep. Dave Brat.

Palin, a former Alaska governor and 2008 GOP vice presidential nominee, backs Donald Trump for president. Ryan said this week that he is not ready to support Trump — even though he is the presumptive GOP nominee. Trump and Ryan are slated to meet this week.

"His political career is over but for a miracle, because he has so disrespected the will of the people ... and for him to already come out and say who he will not support was not a wise decision of his," Palin added of Ryan.

Source
"Oedipus ruined a great sex life by asking too many questions." -- Stephen Colbert
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United Kingdom13775 Posts
May 08 2016 15:50 GMT
#75355
Honestly, if Bernie weren't doing the R's job for them then they would be doing the job themselves. I'm not sure how much of a difference there would really be between the two.
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
OuchyDathurts
Profile Joined September 2010
United States4588 Posts
May 08 2016 16:01 GMT
#75356
On May 09 2016 00:43 kwizach wrote:


Also: this is too good. Yes Palin, please fan the flames while Trump tries to achieve some form of unity
Show nested quote +
Sarah Palin says Paul Ryan will soon be ‘Cantored’

Sarah Palin said in a television interview broadcast Sunday that she will support Speaker Paul Ryan's primary challenger, and she compared Ryan to former House majority leader Eric Cantor (Va.), who was stunningly defeated in a 2014 primary.

"I think Paul Ryan is soon to be 'Cantored,'" Palin said on CNN's "State of the Union." Cantor lost his primary to now-Rep. Dave Brat.

Palin, a former Alaska governor and 2008 GOP vice presidential nominee, backs Donald Trump for president. Ryan said this week that he is not ready to support Trump — even though he is the presumptive GOP nominee. Trump and Ryan are slated to meet this week.

"His political career is over but for a miracle, because he has so disrespected the will of the people ... and for him to already come out and say who he will not support was not a wise decision of his," Palin added of Ryan.

Source


Wasn't that a bit of a foregone conclusion anyway? It was a job they couldn't give away, no one wanted to touch it. Someone had to take it even though it was a poison pill so Paul Ryan ended up taking one for the team.
LiquidDota Staff
kwizach
Profile Joined June 2011
3658 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-05-08 16:24:45
May 08 2016 16:09 GMT
#75357
On May 09 2016 01:01 OuchyDathurts wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 09 2016 00:43 kwizach wrote:


Also: this is too good. Yes Palin, please fan the flames while Trump tries to achieve some form of unity
Sarah Palin says Paul Ryan will soon be ‘Cantored’

Sarah Palin said in a television interview broadcast Sunday that she will support Speaker Paul Ryan's primary challenger, and she compared Ryan to former House majority leader Eric Cantor (Va.), who was stunningly defeated in a 2014 primary.

"I think Paul Ryan is soon to be 'Cantored,'" Palin said on CNN's "State of the Union." Cantor lost his primary to now-Rep. Dave Brat.

Palin, a former Alaska governor and 2008 GOP vice presidential nominee, backs Donald Trump for president. Ryan said this week that he is not ready to support Trump — even though he is the presumptive GOP nominee. Trump and Ryan are slated to meet this week.

"His political career is over but for a miracle, because he has so disrespected the will of the people ... and for him to already come out and say who he will not support was not a wise decision of his," Palin added of Ryan.

Source


Wasn't that a bit of a foregone conclusion anyway? It was a job they couldn't give away, no one wanted to touch it. Someone had to take it even though it was a poison pill so Paul Ryan ended up taking one for the team.

What? Palin is saying that Ryan should get beaten by someone in the GOP primary for his seat in the House, just like Eric Cantor was two years ago.

On May 09 2016 00:50 LegalLord wrote:
Honestly, if Bernie weren't doing the R's job for them then they would be doing the job themselves. I'm not sure how much of a difference there would really be between the two.

It's a significant difference with regards to which kind of audience is receptive to the attacks.

edit:

Donald Trump Won’t Rule Out Effort to Remove Paul Ryan as Convention Chairman

Donald J. Trump said he would not rule out an effort to remove Representative Paul D. Ryan as chairman of the Republican National Convention if he did not endorse Mr. Trump’s candidacy.

Mr. Trump stopped short of calling for Mr. Ryan, the speaker of the House, to step down from his convention role. But in an interview that aired Sunday on NBC’s “Meet the Press,” Mr. Trump said there could be consequences in the event that Mr. Ryan continued withholding his support.

“I will give you a very solid answer, if that happens, about one minute after that happens, O.K.?” Mr. Trump said. “There’s no reason to give it right now, but I’ll be very quick with the answer.”

Mr. Trump has shown little interest over the last few days in placating his critics inside the party, including Mr. Ryan. Mr. Ryan, a representative from Wisconsin, said on Thursday that he was not ready to endorse Mr. Trump, citing reservations about his political style and policy agenda. The two men are scheduled to meet privately in Washington next week.

But on “Meet the Press,” Mr. Trump struck a dismissive tone toward Mr. Ryan and responded with outright hostility to other Republican critics who have refused to back his campaign.

Source

+ Show Spoiler [Good...] +
[image loading]
"Oedipus ruined a great sex life by asking too many questions." -- Stephen Colbert
oneofthem
Profile Blog Joined November 2005
Cayman Islands24199 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-05-08 17:11:26
May 08 2016 17:03 GMT
#75358
On May 09 2016 00:08 Mohdoo wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 08 2016 19:42 WhiteDog wrote:
On May 08 2016 16:01 GreenHorizons wrote:
Part of the negativity voters feel toward Clinton and Trump probably has something to do with growing political polarization in our country. But polarization doesn’t explain everything. If Trump and Clinton’s strongly unfavorable ratings were simply a byproduct of polarized politics, you’d expect them to have high “strongly favorable” ratings too. They don’t. You can see this in their net strong favorability ratings (the “strongly favorable” rating minus the “strongly unfavorable” rating):

[image loading]


No major party nominee before Clinton or Trump had a double-digit net negative “strong favorability” rating. Clinton’s would be the lowest ever, except for Trump.

In previous cycles, the nominees of each party almost always had a strongly favorable and unfavorable rating within 10 percentage points of each other. The only exception was Michael Dukakis in 1988; only 19 percent of Americans felt strongly about Dukakis, either favorably or unfavorably. Over 50 percent of Americans give Clinton and Trump either a “strongly favorable” or “strongly unfavorable” rating, and most of that feeling is negative.


Article

This kind of situation is actually really bad, because whoever will be elected, he or she will have unsufficient legitimacy and will be have trouble doing anything due to oppsition in the congress / by the civil society.


I think the democratic party is smart enough to see this massive opportunity right in front of them. Bernie support in the democratic party would be insane. I think they will realize they have so much to lose and so much to gain and will find a good way to bring a lot of Sanders' supporters into the party. Not all, perhaps not even most, but a huge chunk.

the same group of people would already be future dems without sanders. he's only creating a tea party situation with a lot of paranoia, conspiracy, antagonism and a lot of dumb.

obama's critique

http://m.dailykos.com/story/2016/5/7/1524279/-Obama-s-Critique-of-Sanders
We have fed the heart on fantasies, the heart's grown brutal from the fare, more substance in our enmities than in our love
zlefin
Profile Blog Joined October 2012
United States7689 Posts
May 08 2016 17:16 GMT
#75359
We should restrict voting to only people who watch CSPAN! That sounds like a fair system to me :D
That'll make sure people know what they're voting on.

also re: education, I'd favor more education in formal argumentation, and understanding some of the fallacies; so that people can reason better if they want to. Often such simply isn't covered until college, and even then only in certain fields.
Great read: http://shorensteincenter.org/news-coverage-2016-general-election/ great book on democracy: http://press.princeton.edu/titles/10671.html zlefin is grumpier due to long term illness. Ignoring some users.
oBlade
Profile Blog Joined December 2008
United States5571 Posts
May 08 2016 17:22 GMT
#75360
On May 08 2016 12:32 oneofthem wrote:
obama is this hyper-rationalist guy who really believes in the power of reason and first order engagement with the content of ideas. bernie and trump are optics and identity driven and intentionally or unintentionally, appeal to the irrational and emotional.

it's not even about party balance etc but the future of democracy. with increasing complexity and alienation of the governing experts vs people equipped by internets etc to have a lot of informationally closed groups.

That may be the style he gives off, but he's not some special philosopher-king. He gets that image by speaking slowly and taking liberal pauses, a trait Ted Cruz and many others share. But he also cries on TV about gun control. And beyond the surface, he sees himself as historic. He's probably high on the narcissism scale.
"I read it. You know how to read, you ignorant fuck?" - Andy Dufresne
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