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Read the rules in the OP before posting, please.

In order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a re-read to refresh your memory! The vast majority of you are contributing in a healthy way, keep it up!

NOTE: When providing a source, explain why you feel it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion if it's not obvious.
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Deleted User 137586
Profile Joined January 2011
7859 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-04-06 01:29:39
April 06 2016 01:23 GMT
#71121
Travis, you're showing your age again

Edit: topical: + Show Spoiler +
[image loading]
Cry 'havoc' and let slip the dogs of war
TheTenthDoc
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States9561 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-04-06 01:27:05
April 06 2016 01:26 GMT
#71122
I think we'll be seeing comfortable Sanders and Cruz wins tonight. There might be some sweating over if Trump secures 1-4 districts worth of delegates however. I could always be wrong but this doesn't seem like a likely super polling miss.

Any ammunition Cruz can load in his rifle to show Trump's delegate lead is due to plurality preference and wonky delegate math is pretty crucial. At least Cruz has stopped advertising that if I donate money to him he'll sign and send me a rifle.
On_Slaught
Profile Joined August 2008
United States12190 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-04-06 01:32:17
April 06 2016 01:29 GMT
#71123
Well, I'd at least expect Sanders to have a better grasp over the issues he's spent the last 25 years making a fuss about.

The fact he doesn't even know if his objectives are doable is part of the problem. The inherent lack of pragmatism in the Sanders campaign will be a huge blow to progressive/socialist supporters should be be the nominee/president.

A socialist president = 4 years of nothing happening. You think Obama got fucked by the Repubs a bunch? LOL
Deleted User 3420
Profile Blog Joined May 2003
24492 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-04-06 01:32:44
April 06 2016 01:32 GMT
#71124
On April 06 2016 10:29 On_Slaught wrote:
Well, I'd at least expect Sanders to have a better grasp over the issues he's spent the last 25 years making a fuss about.

The fact he doesn't even know if his objectives are doable is part of the problem. The inherent lack of pragmatism in the Sanders campaign will be a huge blow to progressive/socialist supporters should be be the nominee/president.


Anything is doable.. I think Sanders knows that. But I am pretty sure step 1 of his plan right now is *actually get elected*.
The_Templar
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
your Country52797 Posts
April 06 2016 01:32 GMT
#71125
Wisconsin looks OK for Sanders so far, could be better though.
Moderatorshe/her
TL+ Member
Plansix
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States60190 Posts
April 06 2016 01:33 GMT
#71126
On April 06 2016 10:20 travis wrote:
Are you guys fucking kidding me with that Sanders interview? The interviewer was an asshole. What, is Bernie Sanders supposed to literally fucking know everything? Do you think any of the other candidates could continually give answers to those questions? There is no way they could, because you have to be an absolute expert on these topics. Which is why the president HIRES A STAFF OF EXPERTS. I mean, it's not like he's busy or anything. But sure, he should know policy and law inside out regarding every major change he proposes. Why would he do that? Seriously, can someone explain why he should spend all of his time (that he doesn't have) studying the details of these laws so that he can recite them in interviews?


The reality is, Bernie Sanders is the only candidate who won't bullshit and will just say "I don't know" or "I don't know that yet". Just because he isn't able to recite the details of every major change he proposes doesn't mean they aren't possible. WTF, honestly. That's infuriating.



What is with this "we need to know exactly how he's going to do everything he says he wants to do" shit? What is the point of it? What if it's not even possible *at this moment*? Does that change his campaign? No, that doesn't change his campaign at all, because something not being possible right now does not mean it won't be possible in the future.

Like, I understand if you don't agree with his policies or whatever. But critically think rather than being purposely shitty. He doesn't need to be able to recite the details of how everything is possible right now, even if that was feasible. He is proposing huge changes. But people know that, and they attack it because they are trying to be shitty and tear him down.

As much as I think people are over playing how much Sanders "failed", I was surprised he couldn't name a single specific crime or fraud committed by banks in 2007.
I have the Honor to be your Obedient Servant, P.6
TL+ Member
On_Slaught
Profile Joined August 2008
United States12190 Posts
April 06 2016 01:36 GMT
#71127
Looks like Sanders is on pace to meet his 538 benchmark of 16pts. Dunno about which districts are in though.
Deleted User 137586
Profile Joined January 2011
7859 Posts
April 06 2016 01:39 GMT
#71128


That means Trump has secured 3 delegates, can get another 9.
Cry 'havoc' and let slip the dogs of war
Deleted User 137586
Profile Joined January 2011
7859 Posts
April 06 2016 01:40 GMT
#71129
On April 06 2016 10:36 On_Slaught wrote:
Looks like Sanders is on pace to meet his 538 benchmark of 16pts. Dunno about which districts are in though.


The Upshot seems to have the best data. Way too preliminary still.
Cry 'havoc' and let slip the dogs of war
Deleted User 3420
Profile Blog Joined May 2003
24492 Posts
April 06 2016 01:43 GMT
#71130
On April 06 2016 10:33 Plansix wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 06 2016 10:20 travis wrote:
Are you guys fucking kidding me with that Sanders interview? The interviewer was an asshole. What, is Bernie Sanders supposed to literally fucking know everything? Do you think any of the other candidates could continually give answers to those questions? There is no way they could, because you have to be an absolute expert on these topics. Which is why the president HIRES A STAFF OF EXPERTS. I mean, it's not like he's busy or anything. But sure, he should know policy and law inside out regarding every major change he proposes. Why would he do that? Seriously, can someone explain why he should spend all of his time (that he doesn't have) studying the details of these laws so that he can recite them in interviews?


The reality is, Bernie Sanders is the only candidate who won't bullshit and will just say "I don't know" or "I don't know that yet". Just because he isn't able to recite the details of every major change he proposes doesn't mean they aren't possible. WTF, honestly. That's infuriating.



What is with this "we need to know exactly how he's going to do everything he says he wants to do" shit? What is the point of it? What if it's not even possible *at this moment*? Does that change his campaign? No, that doesn't change his campaign at all, because something not being possible right now does not mean it won't be possible in the future.

Like, I understand if you don't agree with his policies or whatever. But critically think rather than being purposely shitty. He doesn't need to be able to recite the details of how everything is possible right now, even if that was feasible. He is proposing huge changes. But people know that, and they attack it because they are trying to be shitty and tear him down.

As much as I think people are over playing how much Sanders "failed", I was surprised he couldn't name a single specific crime or fraud committed by banks in 2007.


That doesn't really matter to me. It might matter if I thought he was running against people who had reasonable moral views and aren't corrupt. But I don't think that is the case so the other details don't even really matter much. I don't want to vote for people who aren't motivated primarily by serving the general good. And unfortunately, that doesn't appear to be too many people.
TheTenthDoc
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States9561 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-04-06 01:49:02
April 06 2016 01:44 GMT
#71131
On April 06 2016 10:39 Ghanburighan wrote:
https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/717526804018257920

That means Trump has secured 3 delegates, can get another 9.


Wasserman has taken it upon himself to be the herald of Trump on 538. He's basically the Silver Surfer at this point. I would err on Trump only winning 1/2 more of those districts, which is still hugely off his delegate pace.

On the Dem side, Sanders making this double digits is reaaaaally good for him. This is one of his favorable open primary shots he has left, so it's good he's making it count.

Edit: If he's making it count that is...
CannonsNCarriers
Profile Joined April 2010
United States638 Posts
April 06 2016 01:46 GMT
#71132
On April 06 2016 10:32 travis wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 06 2016 10:29 On_Slaught wrote:
Well, I'd at least expect Sanders to have a better grasp over the issues he's spent the last 25 years making a fuss about.

The fact he doesn't even know if his objectives are doable is part of the problem. The inherent lack of pragmatism in the Sanders campaign will be a huge blow to progressive/socialist supporters should be be the nominee/president.


Anything is doable.. I think Sanders knows that. But I am pretty sure step 1 of his plan right now is *actually get elected*.


And clear answers on Wall Street crime, means to break up the big banks, Israel/Palestine, and drone warfare aren't necessary to *actually get elected* right? #FeelTheBurn rallies and memes will have to do.
Dun tuch my cheezbrgr
Acrofales
Profile Joined August 2010
Spain18253 Posts
April 06 2016 01:46 GMT
#71133
On April 06 2016 10:36 On_Slaught wrote:
Looks like Sanders is on pace to meet his 538 benchmark of 16pts. Dunno about which districts are in though.

I dunno. Looks more like 10-12 points, but it is probably too early to say much more than that he will win the state.
Naracs_Duc
Profile Joined August 2015
746 Posts
April 06 2016 01:47 GMT
#71134
On April 06 2016 10:43 travis wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 06 2016 10:33 Plansix wrote:
On April 06 2016 10:20 travis wrote:
Are you guys fucking kidding me with that Sanders interview? The interviewer was an asshole. What, is Bernie Sanders supposed to literally fucking know everything? Do you think any of the other candidates could continually give answers to those questions? There is no way they could, because you have to be an absolute expert on these topics. Which is why the president HIRES A STAFF OF EXPERTS. I mean, it's not like he's busy or anything. But sure, he should know policy and law inside out regarding every major change he proposes. Why would he do that? Seriously, can someone explain why he should spend all of his time (that he doesn't have) studying the details of these laws so that he can recite them in interviews?


The reality is, Bernie Sanders is the only candidate who won't bullshit and will just say "I don't know" or "I don't know that yet". Just because he isn't able to recite the details of every major change he proposes doesn't mean they aren't possible. WTF, honestly. That's infuriating.



What is with this "we need to know exactly how he's going to do everything he says he wants to do" shit? What is the point of it? What if it's not even possible *at this moment*? Does that change his campaign? No, that doesn't change his campaign at all, because something not being possible right now does not mean it won't be possible in the future.

Like, I understand if you don't agree with his policies or whatever. But critically think rather than being purposely shitty. He doesn't need to be able to recite the details of how everything is possible right now, even if that was feasible. He is proposing huge changes. But people know that, and they attack it because they are trying to be shitty and tear him down.

As much as I think people are over playing how much Sanders "failed", I was surprised he couldn't name a single specific crime or fraud committed by banks in 2007.


That doesn't really matter to me. It might matter if I thought he was running against people who had reasonable moral views and aren't corrupt. But I don't think that is the case so the other details don't even really matter much. I don't want to vote for people who aren't motivated primarily by serving the general good. And unfortunately, that doesn't appear to be too many people.


Sanders couldn't even tell them if what the current laws says or what he plans to do with all the people working in the banks he's breaking up. Not counting the fact that he doesn't even want to address that the financial crisis he keeps pointing at was done by small banks, not big ones--the big ones were the ones who suffered from the financial crisis. He doesn't even talk about the fact that they've already repaid the bailout.

For the most part, Bernie has no idea what he is talking about both in an abstract sense or a literal sense. The only other candidate that speaks in such platitudes in this race is Trump. His platform literally is for you to trust him because he yells louder than the other girl.
oneofthem
Profile Blog Joined November 2005
Cayman Islands24199 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-04-06 01:50:28
April 06 2016 01:47 GMT
#71135
it's not like we didn't know about sanders' policy expertise before.

look at this bill he put up.

https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/114/s1206/text

it would cause a financial crisis in literally 1 second

here's an earlier version that is somehow shorter

https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/113/s685/text
https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/111/s2746/text
We have fed the heart on fantasies, the heart's grown brutal from the fare, more substance in our enmities than in our love
Deleted User 137586
Profile Joined January 2011
7859 Posts
April 06 2016 01:49 GMT
#71136
Travis, if you want someone who is motivated primarily by serving the general good, you might want to check out Trump.

In the WaPo transcript he said in answer to what prompted him to run:


I just felt there were so many things going wrong with the country. In particular, because I’m a very natural person when it comes to business, I assume — I mean, I’ve done really well, and I do have an instinct for that — and I felt that we were doing some of the worst trade deals ever. And then you look at what’s going on in Iran with the beginning of negotiations of that disastrous deal. You know, look, it could’ve been a much better deal, Bob. They could’ve walked a couple of times. They could’ve doubled the sanctions for a couple of days and gotten the prisoners out early. They could’ve done so many things. To give the $150 billion back was terrible. So it was a terrible deal. It was a terrible negotiation. It was negotiated by people that are poor negotiators against great negotiators. Persians being great negotiators, okay? It’s one of those things. You might be Persian. But the Iranians, frankly, are great negotiators. The deal was a disaster. But I would see so many things. And it would make me angry.

BW: What made you angriest?

DT: I would say in my case, more than anything else, the stupidity of the trade deals that we have with China, with Japan, with Mexico, with other . . . . Because that’s something that I see. And I didn’t know that it would hit such a chord, because it’s hit a chord with a lot of . . . .

BW: So when did you tell somebody in your family or your circle, "I’ve decided to run." Other words, I’ve pulled the switch.

DT: Well, I would tell my family about it all the time. Don is one of my sons, and doing a really good job. He’s involved very much in this job. . . . Don and my family, I would talk about it a lot. I would say, "I can’t believe they’re doing it." And another thing would happen. I own a big part of the Bank of America building in San Francisco [and] 1290 Avenue of the Americas. I got it from China. Meaning Chinese people had it. It was a big thing. It was a war, it was actually a war.

BW: Did anyone recommend no? Did your wife, or did your son?

DT: Oh. Yeah.

BW: Did anyone say, "Dad, Donald, don’t do it?"

DT: I think my wife would much have preferred that I didn’t do it. She’s a very private person. She was a very, very successful — very, very successful model. She made a tremendous amount of money and had great success and dealt at the . . . .

BW: What’d she say?

DT: She was, she said, we have such a great life. "Why do you want to do this?" She was . . . .

BW: And what’d you say?

DT: I said, "I sort of have to do it, I think. I really have to do it." Because it’s something I’d be — I could do such a great job. I really wanted to give something back. I don’t want to act overly generous, but I really wanted to give something back.

Source
Cry 'havoc' and let slip the dogs of war
Nyxisto
Profile Joined August 2010
Germany6287 Posts
April 06 2016 01:53 GMT
#71137
Because we all know if Trump says something then it must be true lol

What are the chances of the candidate being decided at the convention after tonight?
Deleted User 137586
Profile Joined January 2011
7859 Posts
April 06 2016 01:58 GMT
#71138
Looks like at 28% there's only one outlier estimate left on the Upshot model and it's converging. (I can't even find it on their map any more) Sanders is highly likely to get 56%. Just shy of the target of winning by 16 points. Good for him.
Cry 'havoc' and let slip the dogs of war
TheTenthDoc
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States9561 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-04-06 02:00:11
April 06 2016 01:59 GMT
#71139
On April 06 2016 10:53 Nyxisto wrote:
Because we all know if Trump says something then it must be true lol

What are the chances of the candidate being decided at the convention after tonight?


I would say the chance of no Republican candidate having a majority with pledged delegates is crossing the 50% Rubicon. Maybe even 60%.

Trump might be able to finagle some uncommitted people over to his side though if he is smart enough to figure out how the political process actually works.
CannonsNCarriers
Profile Joined April 2010
United States638 Posts
April 06 2016 01:59 GMT
#71140
On April 06 2016 10:53 Nyxisto wrote:
Because we all know if Trump says something then it must be true lol

What are the chances of the candidate being decided at the convention after tonight?


For the Democrats, ZERO. Hillary will still be 230 delegates in the lead after tonight and CA/NJ/NY elections are coming up. They will blow out her lead. Bernie can compete in white midwest states, hippie enclaves, and caucuses where Bernster energy counts for more than minority voting; but big diverse states are his downfall.
Dun tuch my cheezbrgr
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