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US Politics Mega-thread - Page 3469

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Read the rules in the OP before posting, please.

In order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a re-read to refresh your memory! The vast majority of you are contributing in a healthy way, keep it up!

NOTE: When providing a source, explain why you feel it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion if it's not obvious.
Also take note that unsubstantiated tweets/posts meant only to rekindle old arguments can result in a mod action.
GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States24499 Posts
March 27 2016 00:53 GMT
#69361
On March 27 2016 09:49 PassiveAce wrote:
If Sanders becomes a serious threat to Clinton then superdelegates will shift. We might see a few after this


Probably won't be many switches but shifts from undecided to Bernie for sure before NY.
"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
On_Slaught
Profile Joined August 2008
United States12190 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-03-27 00:55:50
March 27 2016 00:53 GMT
#69362
Because Obama was killing it with the popular vote and they wanted to go with the "will of the people." Either way they knew they would be making history with who they put up (a woman or a black man).

This time, Sanders has nothing in his favor. He is losing the popular vote, he isn't a "historic" candidate, he hasn't always had a positive history with the Dems (Obama wasn't in politics long enough to ruffle many feathers), and many Dems certainly (we've heard reports about this with many) don't like the odds of putting up a Socialist in an election. This SHOULD be an easy general election to win. One of the few buzzwords that could sink the Dems against weak candidates like Trump/Cruz, in many peoples minds, would be someone as divisive as a "socialist."

Even if Sanders is beating Trump/Cruz in the polls now, every terrorist attack that happens between now and Nov, which will likely be a few, and that gap closes significantly.
DarkPlasmaBall
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States46677 Posts
March 27 2016 00:54 GMT
#69363
On March 27 2016 09:49 PassiveAce wrote:
If Sanders becomes a serious threat to Clinton then superdelegates will shift. We might see a few after this


Do you really think the superdelegates will shift? Their very existence is to align with establishment candidates so that the actual average voter doesn't influence the primary too heavily. They switched from Hillary to Obama last election, but Obama and Hillary were both establishment candidates. The DNC would much prefer Hillary (Obama's third term) over Bernie, who's been making waves against the establishment.
"There is nothing more satisfying than looking at a crowd of people and helping them get what I love." ~Day[9] Daily #100
GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States24499 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-03-27 00:58:36
March 27 2016 00:55 GMT
#69364
On March 27 2016 09:53 On_Slaught wrote:
Because Obama was killing it with the popular vote and they wanted to go with the "will of the people." Either way they knew they would be making history with who they put up (a woman or a black man).

This time, Sanders has nothing in his favor. He is losing the popular vote, he isn't a "historic" candidate, he hasn't always had a positive history with the Dems (Obama wasn't in politics long enough to ruffle many feathers), and many Dems certainly (we've heard reports about this with many) don't like the odds of putting up a Socialist in an election. This SHOULD be an easy general election to win. One of the few buzzwords that could sink the Dems against weak candidates like Trump/Cruz,, in many peoples minds, would be someone as divisive as a "socialist."


He'd be the first non-Christian or first Jewish president whichever seems more significant to you. If they gave Sanders half as much time as Trump it would be more than enough to put that phobia to bed.

On March 27 2016 09:54 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 27 2016 09:49 PassiveAce wrote:
If Sanders becomes a serious threat to Clinton then superdelegates will shift. We might see a few after this


Do you really think the superdelegates will shift? Their very existence is to align with establishment candidates so that the actual average voter doesn't influence the primary too heavily. They switched from Hillary to Obama last election, but Obama and Hillary were both establishment candidates. The DNC would much prefer Hillary (Obama's third term) over Bernie, who's been making waves against the establishment.


Some of them are elected officials who want to keep their jobs. If you're in WA and you just saw Hillary get blown-out 80-20 in your hometown you might reconsider your vote regardless of how the pledged delegates end up at the convention.
"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
PassiveAce
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States18076 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-03-27 01:09:45
March 27 2016 01:02 GMT
#69365
On March 27 2016 09:54 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 27 2016 09:49 PassiveAce wrote:
If Sanders becomes a serious threat to Clinton then superdelegates will shift. We might see a few after this


Do you really think the superdelegates will shift? Their very existence is to align with establishment candidates so that the actual average voter doesn't influence the primary too heavily. They switched from Hillary to Obama last election, but Obama and Hillary were both establishment candidates. The DNC would much prefer Hillary (Obama's third term) over Bernie, who's been making waves against the establishment.

These delegates arnt just robots that are commanded around by the DNC. Theyr actual people with thoughts and opinions who can vote as they choose. many of them were pledged to hillary before anyone knew bernie would be in the race.

I doubt we'l see the mass defection we saw in '08. partly because i dont think bernie will be able to seriously threaten hillary.

I have no doubt that Sanders not being a part of the 'establishment,' (not sure you can use that word for the dems because they are so tremendously disorganized), will cost him superdelegates. i just dont think its the only factor.
Call me Marge Simpson cuz I love you homie
Blitzkrieg0
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States13132 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-03-27 01:45:53
March 27 2016 01:07 GMT
#69366
On March 27 2016 09:28 Klowney wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 27 2016 09:10 ticklishmusic wrote:
On March 27 2016 08:58 LegalLord wrote:
On March 27 2016 08:43 GoTuNk! wrote:
On March 27 2016 08:40 Souma wrote:
All this talk about hands getting me sad.

... my hands are smaller than most women's.

I can only reach one octave (+ one key if I try really hard). :|


Def wear big shoes when you go out. So is there a race again or bernie is still dead as was assumed a few pages back? If he takes the lead, do superdelegate begin to change?

Bernie wasn't really out based on previous results but he has, at best, a 20% chance of the nomination,
Superdelegates will probably stick to Hillary until the convention, at which point they will probably support the winner. They have their own careers to worry about, and even if they support Sanders he is not exactly a favorite of the party itself.


From Tuesday + today's results, Sanders has managed to get to approximately where he was before Florida, North Carolina, Missouri, Illinois and Ohio voted. That is to say, he is still very much behind.

It's moronic to say superdelegates are sticking with Hillary at this point because of career concerns. They stick with her because of loyalty. She's done a huge amount for them on the individual level personally and politically, in addition to her contributions to the Democratic party and arguably the US. She's had their back for 20+ years. Bernie hasn't. It's really that simple.


Why didn't they stick with her vs Obama if it's about loyalty?


Because it is loyalty to the party. I don't think Sanders is really an independent, but he certainly isn't part of the democratic party either. What you should be asking is candidate X supporting other down ballot candidates?
I'll always be your shadow and veil your eyes from states of ain soph aur.
DarkPlasmaBall
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States46677 Posts
March 27 2016 01:09 GMT
#69367
On March 27 2016 10:02 PassiveAce wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 27 2016 09:54 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:
On March 27 2016 09:49 PassiveAce wrote:
If Sanders becomes a serious threat to Clinton then superdelegates will shift. We might see a few after this


Do you really think the superdelegates will shift? Their very existence is to align with establishment candidates so that the actual average voter doesn't influence the primary too heavily. They switched from Hillary to Obama last election, but Obama and Hillary were both establishment candidates. The DNC would much prefer Hillary (Obama's third term) over Bernie, who's been making waves against the establishment.

These delegates arnt just robots that are commanded around by the DNC. Theyr actual people with thoughts and opinions who can vote as they choose. many of them were pledged to hillary before anyone knew bernie would be in the race.

I doubt we'l see the mass defection we saw in '08. partly because i dont think bernie will be able to seriously threaten hillary.


Technically, yes. But over half (435/715) of the superdelegates are part of the DNC: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Democratic_Party_superdelegates,_2016
Not to mention that the remaining groups of superdelegates are currently allocated as following:
[image loading]
"There is nothing more satisfying than looking at a crowd of people and helping them get what I love." ~Day[9] Daily #100
PassiveAce
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States18076 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-03-27 01:12:10
March 27 2016 01:11 GMT
#69368
Democrats arnt famous for their adherence to party doctrine

again: i have no doubt that sanders not playing with the DNC will cost him supers. i just dont think its the overwhelming factor
Call me Marge Simpson cuz I love you homie
ticklishmusic
Profile Blog Joined August 2011
United States15977 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-03-27 01:15:32
March 27 2016 01:14 GMT
#69369
You left out the bottom half, which shows Clinton has 10/20 distinguished party leaders, 16/21 governors, 39/46 senators, 166/193 reps BUT only 239/435 DNC members. So if anything, members of the DNC are the group least committed to her.

Sanders doesn't get superdelegates because he's done nothing for them on the individual level or the party level and they don't owe him diddly squat.
(╯°□°)╯︵ ┻━┻
Souma
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
2nd Worst City in CA8938 Posts
March 27 2016 01:16 GMT
#69370
Hope you're not justifying the superdelegate system just to back your candidate.
Writer
PassiveAce
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States18076 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-03-27 01:17:57
March 27 2016 01:17 GMT
#69371
the superdelegate system is what stops people like trump from getting the nomination.
if republicans had a significant number of superdelegates then he wouldnt be an issue.

its actually pretty nice to have.
Call me Marge Simpson cuz I love you homie
ticklishmusic
Profile Blog Joined August 2011
United States15977 Posts
March 27 2016 01:18 GMT
#69372
I'd rather not get George McGovern'd again.
(╯°□°)╯︵ ┻━┻
Souma
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
2nd Worst City in CA8938 Posts
March 27 2016 01:21 GMT
#69373
On March 27 2016 10:17 PassiveAce wrote:
the superdelegate system is what stops people like trump from getting the nomination.
if republicans had a significant number of superdelegates then he wouldnt be an issue.

its actually pretty nice to have.

Not being a bad party stops people like Trump from getting the nomination.

Address the cause maybe?
Writer
Souma
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
2nd Worst City in CA8938 Posts
March 27 2016 01:23 GMT
#69374
On March 27 2016 10:18 ticklishmusic wrote:
I'd rather not get George McGovern'd again.

"I just want my way! Who cares about democracy!"
Writer
PassiveAce
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States18076 Posts
March 27 2016 01:24 GMT
#69375
I'd rather focus on practical solutions.

Convincing millions of people that their voting for bigoted moronoc policies is not really possible
Call me Marge Simpson cuz I love you homie
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
March 27 2016 01:25 GMT
#69376
Defense Secretary Ash Carter used his personal email account for government business for nearly a year until December 2015, when news reports revealed the practice, newly released documents reveal.

The issue has been to the fore in Washington due to Hillary Clinton’s use of a private server while secretary of state during Barack Obama’s first term.

Stoked by Republicans in Congress and on the campaign trail, the issue of the propriety or otherwise of such practices has dogged Clinton’s run for the Democratic presidential nomination.

Late on Friday, in response to Freedom of Information Act requests by the Associated Press and other news organizations, the Pentagon released 1,336 pages of Carter’s emails.

None contained classified information, and most pertained to routine business such as scheduling and logistics.

In a 21 November email using his personal account, for example, Carter wrote: “My work email isn’t working on my iPhone. If you need me this weekend please email me here and cc my work address too.”

The Pentagon has long banned the use of personal email for official business. Carter’s use of his personal email account, starting when he took office in February 2015, was especially remarkable given the burst of public criticism that followed disclosures in March about Clinton.


Source
"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
Souma
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
2nd Worst City in CA8938 Posts
March 27 2016 01:25 GMT
#69377
The impracticality you speak of doesn't exist. Stop making shit up.

I don't think you quite understand the implications of this Trump run.
Writer
ticklishmusic
Profile Blog Joined August 2011
United States15977 Posts
March 27 2016 01:25 GMT
#69378
On March 27 2016 10:23 Souma wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 27 2016 10:18 ticklishmusic wrote:
I'd rather not get George McGovern'd again.

"I just want my way! Who cares about democracy!"



Clinton is likely gonna win without superdelegates.

Bernie's newest strategy is to try and peel 'em off along with some weird shit about trying to get pledged delegates to swap to him somehow. I wouldn't throw stones from that glass house.
(╯°□°)╯︵ ┻━┻
Souma
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
2nd Worst City in CA8938 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-03-27 01:28:30
March 27 2016 01:27 GMT
#69379
On March 27 2016 10:25 ticklishmusic wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 27 2016 10:23 Souma wrote:
On March 27 2016 10:18 ticklishmusic wrote:
I'd rather not get George McGovern'd again.

"I just want my way! Who cares about democracy!"



Clinton is likely gonna win without superdelegates.

Bernie's newest strategy is to try and peel 'em off along with some weird shit about trying to get pledged delegates to swap to him somehow. I wouldn't throw stones from that glass house.

What's that? Still not denying that the superdelegate system is totally crapping on Democracy?
Writer
Souma
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
2nd Worst City in CA8938 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-03-27 01:27:28
March 27 2016 01:27 GMT
#69380
dp.
Writer
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