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US Politics Mega-thread - Page 3433

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Read the rules in the OP before posting, please.

In order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a re-read to refresh your memory! The vast majority of you are contributing in a healthy way, keep it up!

NOTE: When providing a source, explain why you feel it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion if it's not obvious.
Also take note that unsubstantiated tweets/posts meant only to rekindle old arguments can result in a mod action.
Deleted User 137586
Profile Joined January 2011
7859 Posts
March 23 2016 03:11 GMT
#68641
The good news for Sanders is that the media never reports delegate counts (that's for Nerds like Nate and us) so Sanders is nearly guaranteed to get headlines like: "Sanders wins two states to Clinton's one".
Cry 'havoc' and let slip the dogs of war
GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States23221 Posts
March 23 2016 03:14 GMT
#68642
Marco Rubio with 47,000 votes so far in AZ, whoops.
"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
The_Templar
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
your Country52797 Posts
March 23 2016 03:14 GMT
#68643
On March 23 2016 12:11 Ghanburighan wrote:
The good news for Sanders is that the media never reports delegate counts (that's for Nerds like Nate and us) so Sanders is nearly guaranteed to get headlines like: "Sanders wins two states to Clinton's one".

"Clinton wins critical state of Arizona, concedes Idaho and Utah"
Moderatorshe/her
TL+ Member
TheTenthDoc
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States9561 Posts
March 23 2016 03:14 GMT
#68644
Man. Cruz must hate Rubio at this point, he's cost him so many states and now he may continue to do so after dropping out.
jcarlsoniv
Profile Blog Joined January 2010
United States27922 Posts
March 23 2016 03:16 GMT
#68645
On March 23 2016 12:09 The_Templar wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 23 2016 12:08 GreenHorizons wrote:
On March 23 2016 12:06 The_Templar wrote:
On March 23 2016 11:28 GreenHorizons wrote:
What does Bernie have to do tonight for Hillary supporters to consider tonight a win for Bernie and a loss for Hillary?

I'll say a net +30 delegates. Things get pretty desperate if he draws even or only gets a small positive overall in these three states.


He picked up a couple (and a half) in the Dems abroad primary so can I shrink that to +28?

EDIT: Pretty sure that's the early vote and that's a better break than we would expect.

Definitely not indicative of the overall result. They would have called it for Clinton already.


Wolf almost jumped with glee when he read it though.
Soniv ||| Soniv#1962 ||| @jcarlsoniv ||| The Big Golem ||| Join the Glorious Evolution. What's your favorite aminal, a bear? ||| Joe "Don't call me Daniel" "Soniv" "Daniel" Carlsberg LXIX ||| Paging Dr. John Shadow
Deleted User 137586
Profile Joined January 2011
7859 Posts
March 23 2016 03:19 GMT
#68646
AP called Arizona for Trump.

Thanks Zombie-Rubio.
Cry 'havoc' and let slip the dogs of war
Slaughter
Profile Blog Joined November 2003
United States20254 Posts
March 23 2016 03:20 GMT
#68647
AP also called Arizona for Clinton.
Never Knows Best.
GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States23221 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-03-23 03:22:31
March 23 2016 03:20 GMT
#68648
On March 23 2016 12:19 Ghanburighan wrote:
AP called Arizona for Trump.

Thanks Zombie-Rubio.


Well you could add Rubio to Cruz and he still loses.

I don't think they are using accurate estimates for turnout in calculating the percentages though.

There are still people in line to vote in AZ
"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
TheTenthDoc
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States9561 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-03-23 03:25:47
March 23 2016 03:24 GMT
#68649
On March 23 2016 12:20 GreenHorizons wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 23 2016 12:19 Ghanburighan wrote:
AP called Arizona for Trump.

Thanks Zombie-Rubio.


Well you could add Rubio to Cruz and he still loses.

I don't think they are using accurate estimates for turnout in calculating the percentages though.

There are still people in line to vote in AZ


Yeah, you could add Rubio to Cruz and Trump would still win in early votes, but in (I think?) every single primary thus far Trump has done worse in day-of votes than early votes. Rubio's and other zombie candidates are a big part of why they're calling I think.
The_Templar
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
your Country52797 Posts
March 23 2016 03:24 GMT
#68650
Has a state ever been called one way or another only for it to flip?

Looks like Sanders will gain slowly but eventually lose by 5-10 at least.
Moderatorshe/her
TL+ Member
On_Slaught
Profile Joined August 2008
United States12190 Posts
March 23 2016 03:24 GMT
#68651
Welp, the AP sure called the AZ primaries quickly.
zf
Profile Joined April 2011
231 Posts
March 23 2016 03:26 GMT
#68652
On March 23 2016 12:24 The_Templar wrote:
Has a state ever been called one way or another only for it to flip?

Looks like Sanders will gain slowly but eventually lose by 5-10 at least.


Famously, Florida in '00.
TheTenthDoc
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States9561 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-03-23 03:27:29
March 23 2016 03:26 GMT
#68653
Calling a winner-take-all primary when people are still in line seems pretty damn stupid though if you want to get actual vote #s, and my impression was there are still people in line.
GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States23221 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-03-23 03:33:20
March 23 2016 03:27 GMT
#68654
On March 23 2016 12:24 The_Templar wrote:
Has a state ever been called one way or another only for it to flip?

Looks like Sanders will gain slowly but eventually lose by 5-10 at least.


It's happened several times. Also where sometimes the delegate estimate is wrong and the winners of the popular vote and delegates don't match

On March 23 2016 12:26 TheTenthDoc wrote:
Calling a winner-take-all primary when people are still in line seems pretty damn stupid though if you want to get actual vote #s, and my impression was there are still people in line.



Yeah really. They legally couldn't do it during the actual election but because it's a party thing, they try to wait till they "close".



There's no way they have counted 87% of the Phoenix vote
"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
jcarlsoniv
Profile Blog Joined January 2010
United States27922 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-03-23 03:37:33
March 23 2016 03:34 GMT
#68655
Looking over the Guardian map, there's a lot (almost all) of precincts that haven't reported. Will be interesting to see how that works out.

edit - oh wait, I thought Coconino county had all reported, something must be up with the site
Soniv ||| Soniv#1962 ||| @jcarlsoniv ||| The Big Golem ||| Join the Glorious Evolution. What's your favorite aminal, a bear? ||| Joe "Don't call me Daniel" "Soniv" "Daniel" Carlsberg LXIX ||| Paging Dr. John Shadow
GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States23221 Posts
March 23 2016 03:39 GMT
#68656
On March 23 2016 12:34 jcarlsoniv wrote:
Looking over the Guardian map, there's a lot (almost all) of precincts that haven't reported. Will be interesting to see how that works out.

edit - oh wait, I thought Coconino county had all reported, something must be up with the site



Something is up with everything, there's no way they have been counting votes the whole time people have been voting and if they have that's extra stupid because people needed to vote more than they needed them counted tonight.
"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
TheTenthDoc
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States9561 Posts
March 23 2016 03:40 GMT
#68657
Wow the 538 people seem to actually read the muck in their Facebook feed. That or Harry Enten and I have similar thought processes about the merits of calling primaries.
jcarlsoniv
Profile Blog Joined January 2010
United States27922 Posts
March 23 2016 03:42 GMT
#68658
On March 23 2016 12:40 TheTenthDoc wrote:
Wow the 538 people seem to actually read the muck in their Facebook feed. That or Harry Enten and I have similar thought processes about the merits of calling primaries.


I was about to mention his comment as well, and I wholeheartedly agree.

On March 23 2016 12:39 GreenHorizons wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 23 2016 12:34 jcarlsoniv wrote:
Looking over the Guardian map, there's a lot (almost all) of precincts that haven't reported. Will be interesting to see how that works out.

edit - oh wait, I thought Coconino county had all reported, something must be up with the site



Something is up with everything, there's no way they have been counting votes the whole time people have been voting and if they have that's extra stupid because people needed to vote more than they needed them counted tonight.


Well, it would be reasonable that they have counted early votes at this point, no? Calling it based on those early votes while people are still in line to vote isn't really ok.
Soniv ||| Soniv#1962 ||| @jcarlsoniv ||| The Big Golem ||| Join the Glorious Evolution. What's your favorite aminal, a bear? ||| Joe "Don't call me Daniel" "Soniv" "Daniel" Carlsberg LXIX ||| Paging Dr. John Shadow
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
March 23 2016 03:44 GMT
#68659
"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States23221 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-03-23 03:45:31
March 23 2016 03:45 GMT
#68660
On March 23 2016 12:42 jcarlsoniv wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 23 2016 12:40 TheTenthDoc wrote:
Wow the 538 people seem to actually read the muck in their Facebook feed. That or Harry Enten and I have similar thought processes about the merits of calling primaries.


I was about to mention his comment as well, and I wholeheartedly agree.

Show nested quote +
On March 23 2016 12:39 GreenHorizons wrote:
On March 23 2016 12:34 jcarlsoniv wrote:
Looking over the Guardian map, there's a lot (almost all) of precincts that haven't reported. Will be interesting to see how that works out.

edit - oh wait, I thought Coconino county had all reported, something must be up with the site



Something is up with everything, there's no way they have been counting votes the whole time people have been voting and if they have that's extra stupid because people needed to vote more than they needed them counted tonight.


Well, it would be reasonable that they have counted early votes at this point, no? Calling it based on those early votes while people are still in line to vote isn't really ok.


I just mean the percentages of turnout don't make sense. People are still voting in Phoenix so I have to presume none of the votes cast there today have been counted yet. They don't count while people are still waiting to vote as far as I understand. They can't spare the volunteers.
"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
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