US Politics Mega-thread - Page 3012
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Read the rules in the OP before posting, please. In order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a re-read to refresh your memory! The vast majority of you are contributing in a healthy way, keep it up! NOTE: When providing a source, explain why you feel it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion if it's not obvious. Also take note that unsubstantiated tweets/posts meant only to rekindle old arguments can result in a mod action. | ||
TheFish7
United States2824 Posts
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On February 24 2016 15:38 TheFish7 wrote: We can make the assumption that this election isn't about left v right, rather it's about establishment v anti-establishment. In that scenario Bernie is the anti-establishment guy with the better chance in the general election. do you really see conservative people voting for Bernie in the general elections because he's not establishment if (and only if) the Republicans end up with Rubio? Or the other way around, do you see liberals voting for Cruz or Trump if the Democrats end up with Hillary? I doubt it. And the swings voters will just pick whoever is less crazy so being in the middle really helps there. | ||
GreenHorizons
United States22733 Posts
On February 24 2016 15:46 Toadesstern wrote: do you really see conservative people voting for Bernie in the general elections because he's not establishment if (and only if) the Republicans end up with Rubio? Or the other way around, do you see liberals voting for Cruz or Trump if the Democrats end up with Hillary? I doubt it. And the swings voters will just pick whoever is less crazy so being in the middle really helps there. There's already lots of Republicans that support Bernie. They are anti-establishment and anti-crazy. They don't agree with Bernie on a lot but they want nothing to do with the Republican candidates. Like was said, if someone isn't sure on Trump, Bernie is a much better alternative than Hillary. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
That being said, I'm some random guy from Germany so it's really just my perception from reading online and nothing else. | ||
acker
United States2958 Posts
On February 24 2016 16:12 GreenHorizons wrote: There's already lots of Republicans that support Bernie. They are anti-establishment and anti-crazy. They don't agree with Bernie on a lot but they want nothing to do with the Republican candidates. Like was said, if someone isn't sure on Trump, Bernie is a much better alternative than Hillary. Less than a quarter of the Republican base would vote for a socialist under any circumstances. Less than half of the Republican base would vote for an atheist. This is before any policy whatsoever is considered by a voter. And Sanders happens to be an atheist-socialist. During primaries, parties prioritize attacking stronger opposing candidates over weaker ones to improve their chances for the general election. There's nothing new here. | ||
GreenHorizons
United States22733 Posts
On February 24 2016 16:15 Toadesstern wrote: well, if you listen to the guys that are more on the right side on here I get the impression that Bernie, to them, is as crazy as Trump/Cruz is to everyone else. Aside from being genuine and honest which is certainly a plus. That being said, I'm some random guy from Germany so it's really just my perception from reading online and nothing else. That's fair interpretation. We're more talking about Reagan democrats that have been hanging out in the republican party for as long as they could stomach. Young Republicans too, ones that care more about the social stuff than they do the economic, and religious folks who have an interpretation closer to Kasich than Cruz, one that prioritizes how we treat the least among us over stuff like railing against gay marriage (even if they are personally against it). On February 24 2016 16:23 acker wrote: Less than a quarter of the Republican base would vote for a socialist under any circumstances. Less than half of the Republican base would vote for an atheist. This is before any policy whatsoever is considered by a voter. And Sanders happens to be an atheist-socialist. During primaries, parties prioritize attacking stronger opposing candidates over weaker ones to improve their chances for the general election. There's nothing new here. Well technically he's Jewish, which the Republicans love. They say they wouldn't vote for a socialist, but they would vote for socialist policies (Keep your government hands out of my medicare!) But ~25% who may listen isn't a bad starting point considering Hillary's would be ~0% Of course that isn't really accounting for only ~28% of the country identifying as Republican so getting Republican votes doesn't really matter for a Democrat. And the whole part about the difference between socialism in those respondents head and what Bernie is actually proposing. Bernie may have a struggle to appeal outside of the party but Hillary's struggle would be so much harder especially since she's had to go so far left on identity politics just to stay competitive. It's not like Hillary is going to be pandering to black folks in the general. | ||
darthfoley
United States8001 Posts
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acker
United States2958 Posts
On February 24 2016 16:29 darthfoley wrote: Sanders performs very well with independents, who are crucial to the general election. Indies want nothing to do with Clinton Sanders is the only candidate who has a positive reputation with independents as of now (+3). Clinton is down -8. Trump is down -25. However, Sanders has not spent any time being criticized by the opposing party (The Drudge Report hasn't publicized his honeymoon in Russia and The National Review hasn't raked over his support of the Sandinistas). This means that his current approval rating is his ceiling. The same is not true for either Clinton or Trump; both candidates have spent over a year under intense scrutiny. Their current approval rates are a floor. The fact that Clinton's current approval rating is still higher than that of her main Republican challengers (barring Rubio) is a rather large problem for the Republican Party. Unless Rubio manages to lock up the nomination somehow. On February 24 2016 16:27 GreenHorizons wrote: That's fair interpretation. We're more talking about Reagan democrats that have been hanging out in the republican party for as long as they could stomach. Young Republicans too, ones that care more about the social stuff than they do the economic, and religious folks who have an interpretation closer to Kasich than Cruz, one that prioritizes how we treat the least among us over stuff like railing against gay marriage (even if they are personally against it). 1: Reaganite Republicans were purged from the party years ago. David Frum, Ben Bernanke, Bruce Bartlett, and co. left the party and haven't looked back since 2012 or so. 2: Young Republicans don't vote (young people don't vote in general). When they do vote, they vote for the Libertarian Party. This is still good for Democrats due to vote splitting. It's not the same as voting Democrat, though. | ||
zeo
Serbia6268 Posts
![]() There is a county in Nevada where Cruz and Rubio have single digit votes. | ||
acker
United States2958 Posts
On February 24 2016 16:27 GreenHorizons wrote: Well technically he's Jewish, which the Republicans love. They say they wouldn't vote for a socialist, but they would vote for socialist policies (Keep your government hands out of my medicare!) He's ethnically Jewish. That's not the same thing as following Judaism. Nobody has ever accused political parties of consistency, given that political parties are actually an assembly of heterogeneous interest groups rather than the philosophical flag-bearers they pretend to be. He identifies as a socialist, therefore he's dead to Republicans forever. On February 24 2016 16:27 GreenHorizons wrote: But ~25% who may listen isn't a bad starting point considering Hillary's would be ~0% You're conflating self-identification with self-identification+policies+media coverage. Hillary is actually a 91% as a starting point. Sanders is somewhere between a 12.5-25% as a starting point. On February 24 2016 16:27 GreenHorizons wrote: Of course that isn't really accounting for only ~28% of the country identifying as Republican so getting Republican votes doesn't really matter for a Democrat. And the whole part about the difference between socialism in those respondents head and what Bernie is actually proposing. Bernie may have a struggle to appeal outside of the party but Hillary's struggle would be so much harder especially since she's had to go so far left on identity politics just to stay competitive. It's not like Hillary is going to be pandering to black folks in the general. 28% of the country identifies as Republican because a lot of independents are actually embarrassed former Republicans who happen to vote Republican anyways or entirely abstain from voting (people like David Frum). This is one of the reasons why Romney got destroyed last election; his internal polling conflated actual independents with former Republicans. | ||
GreenHorizons
United States22733 Posts
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kwizach
3658 Posts
On February 24 2016 16:32 acker wrote: Sanders is the only candidate who has a positive reputation with independents as of now (+3). Clinton is down -8. Trump is down -25. However, Sanders has not spent any time being criticized by the opposing party (The Drudge Report hasn't publicized his honeymoon in Russia and The National Review hasn't raked over his support of the Sandinistas). This means that his current approval rating is his ceiling. The same is not true for either Clinton or Trump; both candidates have spent over a year under intense scrutiny. Their current approval rates are a floor. The fact that Clinton's current approval rating is still higher than that of her main Republican challengers (barring Rubio) is a rather large problem for the Republican Party. Unless Rubio manages to lock up the nomination somehow. Yes, this should be obvious to pretty much everyone looking at facts honestly. The Republicans are praying for Sanders to be the Democratic nominee, because they know how devastating their propaganda will be against him. It's pretty much their only hope at recapturing the White House at this point. Also, anyone who seriously believes that Hillary is incompetent with regards to foreign policy and that Trump would be more capable than her simply does not know what they're talking about. | ||
GreenHorizons
United States22733 Posts
Might as well make the presidency a reality show while we're at it. It will flow nicely into Kanye/Kim2020. | ||
oneofthem
Cayman Islands24199 Posts
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On_Slaught
United States12190 Posts
Foreign policy is something Presidents have a huge impact on. When Trump says he knows more than experts, he sounds more like a caesar than president. Say what you want about Hillary, but Trump is dangerous. | ||
zeo
Serbia6268 Posts
On February 24 2016 22:12 On_Slaught wrote: In what bizzaro world will trump be good at foreign policy? Setting back ties with Mexico\SA decades? Starting an economic war with China? Building relations with Arab nations by banning Muslims and putting cameras in mosques? Establishing US moral authority by bringing back torture methods "worse than waterboarding?" Going off on any world leader with the audacity to speak ill of him because of his comically thin skin? He has already switched his stance in Putin multiple times. By committing war crimes, like those he has suggested in the ME? By tearing up an Iran deal hundreds of real experts and military generals have approved as good, or at least a step in the right direction? Foreign policy is something Presidents have a huge impact on. Say what you want about Hillary, but Trump is dangerous. How can anyone mess up foreign policy more than our favorite Nobel Peace Prize laureate and his trusty sidekick Secretary Benghazi? Who else could have destroyed half of North Africa, destroyed the Middle East and brought US-Russia relations back 30 years while at the same time continuing the downward spiral and alienation of Americas European allies. Muslims must love him for all the hard work he has done the past 8 years, only Trump could ruin that glowing image among Muslims. Why just yesterday, he even said he was going to close Guantanamo Bay, sure he said he would close it down within a year every year since 2008 but he won't let us down this time... right guys? We should give him another Nobel Piece Prize, he only bombed 7 countries. Booo Trump for saying the US should not have meddled in the Middle East and should try to work together with other nuclear powers instead of waging proxy wars, practically Hitler. | ||
TheTenthDoc
United States9561 Posts
On February 24 2016 22:36 zeo wrote: How can anyone mess up foreign policy more than our favorite Nobel Peace Prize laureate and his trusty sidekick Secretary Benghazi? Who else could have destroyed half of North Africa, destroyed the Middle East and brought US-Russia relations back 30 years while at the same time continuing the downward spiral and alienation of Americas European allies. Muslims must love him for all the hard work he has done the past 8 years, only Trump could ruin that glowing image among Muslims. Why just yesterday, he even said he was going to close Guantanamo Bay, sure he said he would close it down within a year every year since 2008 but he won't let us down this time... right guys? We should give him another Nobel Piece Prize, he only bombed 7 countries. Booo Trump for saying the US should not have meddled in the Middle East, practically Hitler. I'd say Bush did a pretty good job at destroying the Middle East, alienating European allies, letting Africa go to hell, and doing nothing to Russia besides looking into Putin's soul, so your rhetorical questions fall kind of flat here. | ||
zeo
Serbia6268 Posts
On February 24 2016 22:41 TheTenthDoc wrote: I'd say Bush did a pretty good job at destroying the Middle East, alienating European allies, letting Africa go to hell, and doing nothing to Russia besides looking into Putin's soul, so your rhetorical questions fall kind of flat here. When Bush left the only countries with active hostilities/insurgencies were Iraq, Afganistan and Yemen. I'm sure its much better over there now after 8 years. Maybe we can blame the catastrophe that was the Arab Spring on Bush too? | ||
thePunGun
598 Posts
to which he responded: "Trump cares about american money. I care about the american people." I'm neither a Bernie nor a Trump fan, in fact I don't trust any politician at this point...but I like the fact that he wants to grab these pharmaceutical aholes and insurances by the balls. To qoute a minor SC2 icon: "Hell it's about time!!" | ||
Acrofales
Spain17852 Posts
On February 24 2016 22:46 zeo wrote: When Bush left the only countries with active hostilities/insurgencies were Iraq, Afganistan and Yemen. I'm sure its much better over there now after 8 years. Maybe we can blame the catastrophe that was the Arab Spring on Bush too? Everything bad that happened in the world for the last 7 years is Obama's fault. Everything good that happened in the world for the last 7 years was despite Obama's meddling. | ||
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