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Read the rules in the OP before posting, please.

In order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a re-read to refresh your memory! The vast majority of you are contributing in a healthy way, keep it up!

NOTE: When providing a source, explain why you feel it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion if it's not obvious.
Also take note that unsubstantiated tweets/posts meant only to rekindle old arguments can result in a mod action.
Plansix
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States60190 Posts
Last Edited: 2015-10-21 16:34:08
October 21 2015 16:33 GMT
#48481
On October 22 2015 01:25 Mohdoo wrote:
If Iraq ends up receiving assistance from Russia, Obama has officially failed in his Middle Eastern policy.


Considering the political structure in Iraq that will make that decision was put in place by Bush, I am going to continue to blame him over the guy tasks with dealing with that disaster. Once the Bush administration put an elected government in place, our ability to directly influence the direction of the country is limited. They of course, never considered the idea that the elected government might do really stupid things in the coming years. But that sort of forward thinking wasn’t the hallmark of the Bush administration.
I have the Honor to be your Obedient Servant, P.6
TL+ Member
Mohdoo
Profile Joined August 2007
United States15736 Posts
October 21 2015 16:45 GMT
#48482
On October 22 2015 01:33 Plansix wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 22 2015 01:25 Mohdoo wrote:
If Iraq ends up receiving assistance from Russia, Obama has officially failed in his Middle Eastern policy.


Considering the political structure in Iraq that will make that decision was put in place by Bush, I am going to continue to blame him over the guy tasks with dealing with that disaster. Once the Bush administration put an elected government in place, our ability to directly influence the direction of the country is limited. They of course, never considered the idea that the elected government might do really stupid things in the coming years. But that sort of forward thinking wasn’t the hallmark of the Bush administration.


Bush created a terrible situation. Obama was getting things going a good direction, then let politics pull us out of Iraq. Now, if Russia ends up securing both Iraq and Syria, Iraq complete disaster and we become 100x more reliant on Israel than previously. I think it is fair to blame Obama for how he treats the disaster. Every president will inherit disasters. I am still a strong Obama supporter, but there's no way to say that Russian relations with Iraq would be clearly our fault.
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
October 21 2015 16:47 GMT
#48483
A few weeks before the last great international climate conference—2009, in Copenhagen—the e-mail accounts of a few climate scientists were hacked and reviewed for incriminating evidence suggesting that global warming was a charade. Eight separate investigations later concluded that there was literally nothing to “Climategate,” save a few sentences taken completely out of context—but by that time, endless, breathless media accounts about the “scandal” had damaged the prospects for any progress at the conference.

 Now, on the eve of the next global gathering in Paris this December, there’s a new scandal. But this one doesn’t come from an anonymous hacker taking a few sentences out of context. This one comes from months of careful reporting by two separate teams, one at the Pulitzer Prize–winning website Inside Climate News, and other at the Los Angeles Times (with an assist from the Columbia Journalism School). Following separate lines of evidence and document trails, they’ve reached the same bombshell conclusion: ExxonMobil, the world’s largest and most powerful oil company, knew everything there was to know about climate change by the mid-1980s, and then spent the next few decades systematically funding climate denial and lying about the state of the science.

This scandal—traveling under the hashtag #exxonknew—is just beginning to build. The Inside Climate News series of six pieces is set to conclude this week and be published as a book, but the LA Times apparently has far more reporting waiting to be released. Already members of Congress—Ted Lieu and Mark DeSaulnier of California—and presidential candidates Martin O’Malley and Bernie Sanders have called on the Department of Justice to investigate, comparing it to the predations of the tobacco industry.

Should the DOJ muster its courage to go after this most profitable and connected of companies, the roadmap is already well laid out by the two investigations.

 ICN has demonstrated that as early as the late 1970s, Exxon scientists were briefing top executives that climate change was real, dangerous, and caused by their product. By the early 1980s, their own climate models were predicting—with great accuracy—the track the global temperature has taken ever since.

 The LA Times reporting is at least as important. It demonstrated that Exxon clearly believed their own climate models and used them to guide their efforts in the newly melting Arctic, where as their senior researcher said “warming will clearly affect sea ice, icebergs, permafrost and sea levels.” (Indeed, he added, climate change “can only help lower exploration and development costs,” thus making their bids for Arctic lease rights more profitable).


Source
"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
Plansix
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States60190 Posts
Last Edited: 2015-10-21 16:54:47
October 21 2015 16:50 GMT
#48484
On October 22 2015 01:45 Mohdoo wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 22 2015 01:33 Plansix wrote:
On October 22 2015 01:25 Mohdoo wrote:
If Iraq ends up receiving assistance from Russia, Obama has officially failed in his Middle Eastern policy.


Considering the political structure in Iraq that will make that decision was put in place by Bush, I am going to continue to blame him over the guy tasks with dealing with that disaster. Once the Bush administration put an elected government in place, our ability to directly influence the direction of the country is limited. They of course, never considered the idea that the elected government might do really stupid things in the coming years. But that sort of forward thinking wasn’t the hallmark of the Bush administration.


Bush created a terrible situation. Obama was getting things going a good direction, then let politics pull us out of Iraq. Now, if Russia ends up securing both Iraq and Syria, Iraq complete disaster and we become 100x more reliant on Israel than previously. I think it is fair to blame Obama for how he treats the disaster. Every president will inherit disasters. I am still a strong Obama supporter, but there's no way to say that Russian relations with Iraq would be clearly our fault.

I would argue we are seeing the limits of foreign influence democracy in gridlock can have when faced off against a defacto dictatorship. People forget that the Republicans voted to prevent Obama from using airstrikes in Syria. The large section Republicans are more interested spiting Obama than they are with stopping the rise of Russian power. It has nothing to do with the good of the US,its all about screwing over Obama and preventing him from accomplishing anything. And the world knows this, so Russia just does whatever it wants, knowing the US can't respond.

ticklishmusic: That is what happens when you let a country that has been under dictatorship for decades elect people. There is no one qualified to lead because the dictatorship has spent the last decade killing them. The fact that everyone thought it was a good idea just shows how idiotic we were during the Iraq war.
I have the Honor to be your Obedient Servant, P.6
TL+ Member
ticklishmusic
Profile Blog Joined August 2011
United States15977 Posts
October 21 2015 16:50 GMT
#48485
Russia isn't going to secure Iraq or Syria, they can sustain a short flashy bomb campaign but an extended deployment isn't something Russia can afford either politically or financially. They're broke as shit, and jingoism is a lot cheaper than nationbuilding. Putin knows his image will be shattered once soldiers start coming back in caskets, so he's not going to do it.

Iraq is a mess, the last prime minister was a borderline racist and marginalized a huge swathe of the population (not to mention he kicked out thwe U.S. for political points). The distrust that's built up has severely stunted the ability to build an effective governing coalition, let alone a coordinated military response to ISIS. And we let him do it.
(╯°□°)╯︵ ┻━┻
Mohdoo
Profile Joined August 2007
United States15736 Posts
October 21 2015 16:52 GMT
#48486
On October 22 2015 01:50 ticklishmusic wrote:
Russia isn't going to secure Iraq or Syria, they can sustain a short flashy bomb campaign but an extended deployment isn't something Russia can afford either politically or financially. They're broke as shit, and jingoism is a lot cheaper than nationbuilding. Putin knows his image will be shattered once soldiers start coming back in caskets, so he's not going to do it.

Iraq is a mess, the last prime minister was a borderline racist and marginalized a huge swathe of the population (not to mention he kicked out thwe U.S. for political points). The distrust that's built up has severely stunted the ability to build an effective governing coalition, let alone a coordinated military response to ISIS. And we let him do it.


So then what do you think Russia's goal is? Do you think that Putin is trying to do something that he will be unsuccessful in doing? Or do you not agree that his intention is to bring Iraq under his influence?
farvacola
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
United States18846 Posts
October 21 2015 16:58 GMT
#48487
Putin's goal is to flex. He wants folks to mire his gains, obviously.
"when the Dead Kennedys found out they had skinhead fans, they literally wrote a song titled 'Nazi Punks Fuck Off'"
ticklishmusic
Profile Blog Joined August 2011
United States15977 Posts
Last Edited: 2015-10-21 17:07:19
October 21 2015 17:00 GMT
#48488
I don't think Russia has a coherent foreign policy plan, period. The goal is to increase Russia's sphere of influence, but I don't see how current initiatives (if you want to call them that) lead to a successful endgame. Look at the Ukraine conflict: Russia strongarmed Ukraine into giving up Crimea (good), but it seems like they haven't thought this through. Now Russia's getting sanctioned up the whazoo, and they've got a bunch of materiel and manpower tied up there. Putin's painted himself into a corner.

Honestly, I think the U.S. should declare a crisis or something then "deploy air support for the legitimate government of Ukraine" and "launch tactical strikes against insurgents" (aka the Russian soldiers) and watch Putin fume because he's publicly disavowed any involvement.

Syria might be a more clearcut "win" situation, but Russia's gonna need more than a few 2x4's to keep Assad propped up.
(╯°□°)╯︵ ┻━┻
RCMDVA
Profile Joined July 2011
United States708 Posts
October 21 2015 17:03 GMT
#48489
Russia's goal is for Team Alawite to win and prevent any pipeline from Saudi Arabia, or Qatar/UAE or anywhere else from reaching Turkey and gutting the prices they charge Europe for natural gas.

And to keep a warm water port. That's it.

If that mean being friends with Team Iran and Team Hezbollah, then that's fine with them.
Gorsameth
Profile Joined April 2010
Netherlands22078 Posts
Last Edited: 2015-10-21 17:35:23
October 21 2015 17:15 GMT
#48490
On October 22 2015 01:45 Mohdoo wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 22 2015 01:33 Plansix wrote:
On October 22 2015 01:25 Mohdoo wrote:
If Iraq ends up receiving assistance from Russia, Obama has officially failed in his Middle Eastern policy.


Considering the political structure in Iraq that will make that decision was put in place by Bush, I am going to continue to blame him over the guy tasks with dealing with that disaster. Once the Bush administration put an elected government in place, our ability to directly influence the direction of the country is limited. They of course, never considered the idea that the elected government might do really stupid things in the coming years. But that sort of forward thinking wasn’t the hallmark of the Bush administration.


Bush created a terrible situation. Obama was getting things going a good direction, then let politics pull us out of Iraq. Now, if Russia ends up securing both Iraq and Syria, Iraq complete disaster and we become 100x more reliant on Israel than previously. I think it is fair to blame Obama for how he treats the disaster. Every president will inherit disasters. I am still a strong Obama supporter, but there's no way to say that Russian relations with Iraq would be clearly our fault.

The plans to pull out of Iraq were drafted by Bush and the Iraqi government refused further American assistance and asked the soldiers to leave. The blame for America not staying longer lies with Iraq not the US, neither Obama, nor Bush.

Furthermore the American public is war weary, it doesn't want another set of boots on the ground so that options is out.
More airstrikes could be helpful and wanted but someone else said the Republicans voted against that? I'm not sure on the details so I cant comment on that option.

Russia is moving in to keep the region in the current unstable state and to show the world they exist. Putin has been power tripping for years now trying to return Russia to its USSR former glory. The guys time is running out and he is becoming more and more open in his power plays. In the end the conflicts in Ukraine and Syria will just end up draining Russia's coffers at the expense of domestic improvement.
It ignores such insignificant forces as time, entropy, and death
DarkPlasmaBall
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States45252 Posts
October 21 2015 17:32 GMT
#48491
Biden confirmed that's he's officially not running for president. Biden running may have taken a good chunk of Hillary's supporters- thus making things easier for Bernie Sanders- but I think Bernie still has a chance anyway.
"There is nothing more satisfying than looking at a crowd of people and helping them get what I love." ~Day[9] Daily #100
JinDesu
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States3990 Posts
October 21 2015 17:46 GMT
#48492
I think it's pretty respectable of him that he is choosing not to run for president.
Yargh
xDaunt
Profile Joined March 2010
United States17988 Posts
October 21 2015 17:47 GMT
#48493
On October 22 2015 02:03 RCMDVA wrote:
Russia's goal is for Team Alawite to win and prevent any pipeline from Saudi Arabia, or Qatar/UAE or anywhere else from reaching Turkey and gutting the prices they charge Europe for natural gas.

And to keep a warm water port. That's it.

If that mean being friends with Team Iran and Team Hezbollah, then that's fine with them.

All of this. Plus, I think that many people overlook the perverse incentives of war for many of these countries in the Middle East. Disruptions to oil supply create an upward pressure on oil prices, which benefits all of the oil producing states.
Slaughter
Profile Blog Joined November 2003
United States20254 Posts
October 21 2015 17:50 GMT
#48494
Why do we care if Russia wants to do what we have been doing? Who cares? Let them take the reigns and we can stop draining our effort and money into that region. Have fun with the clusterfuck Russia. We will take our Israeli ally (strongest military in the region) and laugh while we focus on our domestic issues.
Never Knows Best.
Gorsameth
Profile Joined April 2010
Netherlands22078 Posts
October 21 2015 17:54 GMT
#48495
On October 22 2015 02:50 Slaughter wrote:
Why do we care if Russia wants to do what we have been doing? Who cares? Let them take the reigns and we can stop draining our effort and money into that region. Have fun with the clusterfuck Russia. We will take our Israeli ally (strongest military in the region) and laugh while we focus on our domestic issues.

Because a decent number of people are still stuck in the cold war and think that its Russia vs America and that them winning means your losing.


It ignores such insignificant forces as time, entropy, and death
Plansix
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States60190 Posts
October 21 2015 17:56 GMT
#48496
Russia also has this habit of supporting dictatorships that are actively hostile towards the US and allow of terrorist to exist and operate in their countries.
I have the Honor to be your Obedient Servant, P.6
TL+ Member
ticklishmusic
Profile Blog Joined August 2011
United States15977 Posts
October 21 2015 17:58 GMT
#48497
Iran's Supreme Leader Approves Nuclear Deal

He uses a lot of the old Great Satan rhetoric, but IMO it's more sticking to form than anything. He doesn't make any demands that materially affect the deal.
(╯°□°)╯︵ ┻━┻
KwarK
Profile Blog Joined July 2006
United States43542 Posts
October 21 2015 18:00 GMT
#48498
Er, if my history serves USSR actively tried to stamp out the mujahideen terrorists in Afghanistan and the US who funded them and encouraged them to operate. Which history are you looking at?
ModeratorThe angels have the phone box
Gorsameth
Profile Joined April 2010
Netherlands22078 Posts
October 21 2015 18:02 GMT
#48499
On October 22 2015 02:56 Plansix wrote:
Russia also has this habit of supporting dictatorships that are actively hostile towards the US and allow of terrorist to exist and operate in their countries.

You mean like America did throughout the Middle East during the Cold War?
I mean, its not like America trained the Taliban to fight Russia right? That would be silly.
It ignores such insignificant forces as time, entropy, and death
Plansix
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States60190 Posts
Last Edited: 2015-10-21 18:08:34
October 21 2015 18:08 GMT
#48500
On October 22 2015 03:02 Gorsameth wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 22 2015 02:56 Plansix wrote:
Russia also has this habit of supporting dictatorships that are actively hostile towards the US and allow of terrorist to exist and operate in their countries.

You mean like America did throughout the Middle East during the Cold War?
I mean, its not like America trained the Taliban to fight Russia right? That would be silly.

I never said we were any better. I actively point out that the majority of the problems in the middle east and the rise of Islamic violent fundamentalism is a direct result of the US fucking around in the region. But it is also a result of Russia fucking around in the region. Neither country has the moral high ground. But acting like Russia gaining influence in over Iraq would help the US isn't accurate.
I have the Honor to be your Obedient Servant, P.6
TL+ Member
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