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On September 30 2015 23:54 Buckyman wrote:
Counterpoint on the estate tax: Family businesses are one of the drivers of economic growth. An estate tax also manifests an extraordinary and highly volatile tax for family businesses that doesn't affect their publicly traded competitors.
As someone who family owns the type of business, the estate tax will have zero effect on it. The natural course of incorporating for tax and liability reasons solves this issue.
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Jeb is still the favorite due to his money family ties and conections. He has Florida and Texas locked down and can go after the Hispanic vote like his brother did to win his elections.
He's not the frontrunner but as long as his favorables doesn't get too bad he's still the betting man's candidate to win both his nomination and the presidency. At least this far out.
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Cayman Islands24199 Posts
in terms of wealth and aristocracy, i think the major concentrating mechanisms are not touched by estate tax. investment in education, social networking etc.
passive income can certainly be cut but it probably does not explain intergenerational outcomes in general, at least at the below 100 million range.
the really big fish like say waltons or koch should be rekt but i think they pose a problem rhat is most significant when you also have outsized power of fortunes in politics.
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On October 01 2015 01:08 Sermokala wrote:
Jeb is still the favorite due to his money family ties and conections. He has Florida and Texas locked down and can go after the Hispanic vote like his brother did to win his elections.
He's not the frontrunner but as long as his favorables doesn't get too bad he's still the betting man's candidate to win both his nomination and the presidency. At least this far out.
Don't talk what you don't know. Jeb does not have the hispanic vote, Florida won't vote for Jeb. How do I know this? I'm from Florida and I'm hispanic and everyone I know either young or old, will never vote for Jeb.
Also, personal opinion, but the way the Republicans are handling PP is ridiculous. The way these men interrupted continously the PP President about women's issues that they themselves don't even understand and choose to just ignore it is just infuriating.
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On October 01 2015 01:26 ShoCkeyy wrote:Show nested quote +On October 01 2015 01:08 Sermokala wrote:
Jeb is still the favorite due to his money family ties and conections. He has Florida and Texas locked down and can go after the Hispanic vote like his brother did to win his elections.
He's not the frontrunner but as long as his favorables doesn't get too bad he's still the betting man's candidate to win both his nomination and the presidency. At least this far out. Don't talk what you don't know. Jeb does not have the hispanic vote, Florida won't vote for Jeb. How do I know this? I'm from Florida and I'm hispanic and everyone I know either young or old, will never vote for Jeb.
But that's because you're too busy voting for Trump, right?
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On October 01 2015 01:29 Jormundr wrote:Show nested quote +On October 01 2015 01:26 ShoCkeyy wrote:On October 01 2015 01:08 Sermokala wrote:
Jeb is still the favorite due to his money family ties and conections. He has Florida and Texas locked down and can go after the Hispanic vote like his brother did to win his elections.
He's not the frontrunner but as long as his favorables doesn't get too bad he's still the betting man's candidate to win both his nomination and the presidency. At least this far out. Don't talk what you don't know. Jeb does not have the hispanic vote, Florida won't vote for Jeb. How do I know this? I'm from Florida and I'm hispanic and everyone I know either young or old, will never vote for Jeb. But that's because you're too busy voting for Trump, right?
Not one republican will get a hispanic vote, so it's either going to Hillary or Bernie. All my friends in FL, ranging from Central FL to South FL are voting for Bernie and/or Hillary.
Let's just put it this way, friends who aren't even into Politics have all chosen to vote for Bernie just cause he seems like the better pick out of everyone. If you live in FL, you would know what the republicans have done to this place. The income disparity is out of control in FL. Either you're extremely broke all the time and/or poor or you're super rich. The republican government here has obviously put it's weight behind the rich and left everyone else out.
My grandmother has had basically all her government help taken away. She's 82 years old and only receives $120 a month from the government. She's worked non stop until she was 70 years old and her social security is almost non existent. She's paid her taxes since she's started working, now the government and the state of FL are leaving her to die. Younger hispanic generations aren't stupid and won't let it continue to happen.
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On October 01 2015 01:34 ShoCkeyy wrote:Show nested quote +On October 01 2015 01:29 Jormundr wrote:On October 01 2015 01:26 ShoCkeyy wrote:On October 01 2015 01:08 Sermokala wrote:
Jeb is still the favorite due to his money family ties and conections. He has Florida and Texas locked down and can go after the Hispanic vote like his brother did to win his elections.
He's not the frontrunner but as long as his favorables doesn't get too bad he's still the betting man's candidate to win both his nomination and the presidency. At least this far out. Don't talk what you don't know. Jeb does not have the hispanic vote, Florida won't vote for Jeb. How do I know this? I'm from Florida and I'm hispanic and everyone I know either young or old, will never vote for Jeb. But that's because you're too busy voting for Trump, right? Not one republican will get a hispanic vote, so it's either going to Hillary or Bernie. All my friends in FL, ranging from Central FL to South FL are voting for Bernie and/or Hillary.
But Trump told me "The Hispanics" love him. In those exact words. Why would he stuff like say that if "The Blacks" and "The Hispanics" didn't love him?
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Jeb has an Hispanic wife, speaks spanish, and isnt for kicking brown people out. Not to mention his brother was able to leverage the Hispanic vote pretty well and that led to his presidency.
Hillary is being eaten alive by the email scandal and is being forced to tack left to fend off Bernie if she can even do that. Bernie for all of his pros can't seem to stop saying the word socialism which is terrible for Midwestern Reagan democrats.
Jeb doesn't need a plurality of Hispanic votes but if he can get the 30s to 40s on them he has a lot of battleground control Romney and McCain didnt.
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Isn't Jeb polling behind Rubio in Florida right now?
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On October 01 2015 02:01 ticklishmusic wrote:
Isn't Jeb polling behind Rubio in Florida right now?
Yes, as of last week. He isn't doing well anywhere. Not that it matters because we are still in the clown show. The primaries forever from now.
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All Trump has to do is come out a little bit behind in delegates after Super Tuesday (not let anyone Cruz/Jeb outright win Texas), same thing on March 15th (not let Jeb/Rubio outright win FL), and then go and collect NY/CA/NJ delegates in May & June and win. If Trump is tied or winning on Super Tuesday, it's ggwp for everyone else as they hope for a Secretary position in his cabinet, or a VP nod.
Two polls were released yesterday, and Trump is winning both GA and NC primaries.
RNC wants this over and done with on March 15th. Trump is the only one with the money to drag it out to June.
Nobody (either Republican or Democrat) wants to spend any primary money north of Virginia (save NH) or on the West Coast. It's too expensive.
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just maybe... maybe.. the hispanic swingvoters remember how it was when bush II had office and how that went?
I mean... Bush II had his father which was an "ok" president if you were into these policies, but Bush II was, towards the end of his presidency, basically a clear failure in everyone books? Thats not exactly advertising for getting another bush?
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United States43720 Posts
On October 01 2015 01:12 oneofthem wrote:
in terms of wealth and aristocracy, i think the major concentrating mechanisms are not touched by estate tax. investment in education, social networking etc.
passive income can certainly be cut but it probably does not explain intergenerational outcomes in general, at least at the below 100 million range.
the really big fish like say waltons or koch should be rekt but i think they pose a problem rhat is most significant when you also have outsized power of fortunes in politics.
If I leave a child 100m and they invest it then roughly 40 years later they'll be leaving their children a combined 1.5b, inflation adjusted (so 15x the purchasing power of the original inheritance). Bootstraps can't beat compound interest on those numbers, especially when income is taxed at a higher rate than LTCG. The passive yield on just one million dollars is above the median national income. I absolutely believe that it's easily possible for someone who works hard to get a fairly quick million, hell, personally I think I could probably do 10m plus without too much difficulty if I put the years in, but I could never compete with someone who was born with 10m and just had compound interest on their side.
Intergenerational wealth transfer combined with compound interest is the antithesis of the American dream.
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Or in short.
Inheritance/Estate-Tax is one of the most important things in a democracy. Else your just create, over the span of 2-3 generations, a money based monarchy.
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On October 01 2015 02:14 Velr wrote:
Or in short.
Inheritance/Estate-Tax is one of the most important things in a democracy. Else your just create, over the span of 2-3 generations, a money based monarchy.
And on a long enough time line, that money gets redistributed through other means that are far less clean.
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United States43720 Posts
Incidentally Trump's personal fortune is about what it would have been if he'd just taken his inheritance, thrown it in index funds and spent the last few decades doing absolutely nothing. He is literally a textbook example of the problem, a talentless man with a rich father who has the arrogance to look down on people who struggle to put food on the table each day or people who were tortured in the defence of the country.
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Cayman Islands24199 Posts
On October 01 2015 02:12 KwarK wrote:Show nested quote +On October 01 2015 01:12 oneofthem wrote:
in terms of wealth and aristocracy, i think the major concentrating mechanisms are not touched by estate tax. investment in education, social networking etc.
passive income can certainly be cut but it probably does not explain intergenerational outcomes in general, at least at the below 100 million range.
the really big fish like say waltons or koch should be rekt but i think they pose a problem rhat is most significant when you also have outsized power of fortunes in politics.
If I leave a child 100m and they invest it then roughly 40 years later they'll be leaving their children a combined 1.5b, inflation adjusted (so 15x the purchasing power of the original inheritance). Bootstraps can't beat compound interest on those numbers, especially when income is taxed at a higher rate than LTCG. The passive yield on just one million dollars is above the median national income. I absolutely believe that it's easily possible for someone who works hard to get a fairly quick million, hell, personally I think I could probably do 10m plus without too much difficulty if I put the years in, but I could never compete with someone who was born with 10m and just had compound interest on their side. Intergenerational wealth transfer combined with compound interest is the antithesis of the American dream. i agree about passive income needing a nerf. but your compound interest graph is understating the difficulty of maintaining a perpetual pile of gold across multiple generations. i do think it should be a goal to make such income harder to maintain. more inflation perhaps
in less certain times events in the world have destroyed fortunes, or the kids have fucked it up or became too numerous to get all that much.
i can see a situation where the riskfree rate of return is high and the kids have some advisors to employ to great effect. that leaves the state and other kids as the possible destroyers of the gold pile.
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On October 01 2015 01:54 Sermokala wrote:
Jeb has an Hispanic wife, speaks spanish, and isnt for kicking brown people out. Not to mention his brother was able to leverage the Hispanic vote pretty well and that led to his presidency.
Hillary is being eaten alive by the email scandal and is being forced to tack left to fend off Bernie if she can even do that. Bernie for all of his pros can't seem to stop saying the word socialism which is terrible for Midwestern Reagan democrats.
Jeb doesn't need a plurality of Hispanic votes but if he can get the 30s to 40s on them he has a lot of battleground control Romney and McCain didnt.
Hillary isn't getting eaten alive by the email scandal, "socialist" isn't hurting Sanders in the way the right wants it to, and there is absolutely zero indication that any of the Republican candidates can do well with the black or Hispanic votes. If Jeb somehow gets out of his rut and turns a lot of things around then anything is possible, but based on all current polling information, you're grasping at straws.
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On October 01 2015 02:39 oneofthem wrote:Show nested quote +On October 01 2015 02:12 KwarK wrote:On October 01 2015 01:12 oneofthem wrote:
in terms of wealth and aristocracy, i think the major concentrating mechanisms are not touched by estate tax. investment in education, social networking etc.
passive income can certainly be cut but it probably does not explain intergenerational outcomes in general, at least at the below 100 million range.
the really big fish like say waltons or koch should be rekt but i think they pose a problem rhat is most significant when you also have outsized power of fortunes in politics.
If I leave a child 100m and they invest it then roughly 40 years later they'll be leaving their children a combined 1.5b, inflation adjusted (so 15x the purchasing power of the original inheritance). Bootstraps can't beat compound interest on those numbers, especially when income is taxed at a higher rate than LTCG. The passive yield on just one million dollars is above the median national income. I absolutely believe that it's easily possible for someone who works hard to get a fairly quick million, hell, personally I think I could probably do 10m plus without too much difficulty if I put the years in, but I could never compete with someone who was born with 10m and just had compound interest on their side. Intergenerational wealth transfer combined with compound interest is the antithesis of the American dream. i agree about passive income needing a nerf. but your compound interest graph is understating the difficulty of maintaining a perpetual pile of gold across multiple generations. i do think it should be a goal to make such income harder to maintain.
Buy a fond that is bound to the Dow Jones... WIN
thats ALL you have to do as long as you are not riding the apocalypse and the us will go down in flames.
If you have enough capital, you don't need to do shit, you don't even need to invest "smart". You can just invest into the whole market in "GENERAL" and you will come even.
Thats the whole issue.
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On October 01 2015 02:42 Stratos_speAr wrote:Show nested quote +On October 01 2015 01:54 Sermokala wrote:
Jeb has an Hispanic wife, speaks spanish, and isnt for kicking brown people out. Not to mention his brother was able to leverage the Hispanic vote pretty well and that led to his presidency.
Hillary is being eaten alive by the email scandal and is being forced to tack left to fend off Bernie if she can even do that. Bernie for all of his pros can't seem to stop saying the word socialism which is terrible for Midwestern Reagan democrats.
Jeb doesn't need a plurality of Hispanic votes but if he can get the 30s to 40s on them he has a lot of battleground control Romney and McCain didnt. Hillary isn't getting eaten alive by the email scandal, "socialist" isn't hurting Sanders in the way the right wants it to, and there is absolutely zero indication that any of the Republican candidates can do well with the black or Hispanic votes. If Jeb somehow gets out of his rut and turns a lot of things around then anything is possible, but based on all current polling information, you're grasping at straws.
Hillary is stuck in a loop news cycle that she keeps feeding that's tanking her poll numbers and opens the door to sanders. I have no idea what you think the term socialist means in common parlance but in America it's not a good thing. Jeb hasn't made any large moves and he's just hovering around the top of the polls. If anything being a frontrunner is bad until primary season rolls around and things start mattering. I don't know what poll numbers your looking at but if you are going to argue by them at least provide something that supports it.
The last bush was able to get the Hispanic vote to some degree that's proof enough that he can get more then that when he has many advantages for it above his possible opponents. The black vote hasn't been considered in play by anyone so I don't get why people keep talking about it.
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EPT
