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On January 13 2015 08:45 coverpunch wrote:Show nested quote +On January 13 2015 08:33 Introvert wrote: They're both losers and I don't like either, so I haven't thought about any race between the two. We'll see how the primaries look by the time California's rolls around. I won't waste my time unless I have no other options.
Not that my vote would matter. If memory serves CA Republicans go moderate most of the time anyway. Don't worry, in the big race all of California's delegates are going for the Democrats. I've heard some rumblings about Jerry Brown making a run for the Democratic nomination and that's a much more interesting conversation IMO. He'll never be president because he's a classic tax and spend liberal, but you don't get to be governor of California twice in two separate decades because you can't play the game.
Oh, I know that in the end my vote won't matter too much. I was responding to a request for thoughts on Bush vs Romney.
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On January 13 2015 10:05 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +On January 13 2015 09:21 Yoav wrote: Ben Carson will have a moment before imploding, if he wants. I suppose being some sort of a quasi-Creationist isn't considered imploding for conservatives? It's kind of hard to comprehend exactly what he was saying. Maybe Intro wants to take a whack at what he means? https://soundcloud.com/rightwingwatch/carson-evolution-is-a-myth
On my phone, will be brief.
I think he's being intentionally vague but to me it sounds like he's basically saying
A) God could have made the earth "old" and
B) that he doesn't accept a purely Godless evolutionary adaptation scheme.
But I think more than anything he's trying to say God plays a role without really outlining how or where.
Sounds like he's being somewhat noncommittal in the details.
Final note, I really don't think this is the issue that you make it out to be. Other things are more important, both overall and with regards to Carson.
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Cayman Islands24199 Posts
On January 13 2015 09:59 JonnyBNoHo wrote:Show nested quote +On January 13 2015 08:51 oneofthem wrote: depreciation rate did not rise in the 1970's because of more computers. the rise in capital investment started in the 1960's. there's a lapse between when you buy the machine and its depreciation, but the depreciation rule was changed in the 70's to allow for faster depreciation schedule instead of straight linear depreciation. from 70's on life cycle of capital equipment etc has become shorter, due to technological competition, but it was not the only effect. more depreciation was a kind of tax shield.
even so, profit share started to rise in the 1970's, and this is not depreciation related. it's just a more competitive and energized management approach which disrupted the comfortable truce between labor and capital in the 50's and 60's. The tech factor comes from the CBO: Show nested quote +Consumption of fixed capital has grown as a share of GDI since the mid-1970s, largely as a result of the shift in investment spending toward assets with shorter service lives (especially computers, communications equipment, and software) and thus higher rates of depreciation. Link Maybe it's wrong, but I'd like to see evidence. I assume the rule change you're referring to is MACRS and the like? I don't think that's a factor here since MACRS only applies to taxes. Not sure about your comments on profit share either since profit share was higher in the 50's and 60's, the the rise didn't start until the early 80's and then more significantly in the 90's. it's not wrong, but i dont think it is the only factor.
the depreciation rule change in the 70's was mainly the ADR System, and MACRS was a further modification of this system. it basically allowed accelerated depreciation relative to the old straightline method. http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/tax-policy/tax-analysis/Documents/ota64.pdf
the profit trend is something like this. http://i.imgur.com/I1V3Sm3.jpg
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On January 13 2015 11:41 oneofthem wrote:Show nested quote +On January 13 2015 09:59 JonnyBNoHo wrote:On January 13 2015 08:51 oneofthem wrote: depreciation rate did not rise in the 1970's because of more computers. the rise in capital investment started in the 1960's. there's a lapse between when you buy the machine and its depreciation, but the depreciation rule was changed in the 70's to allow for faster depreciation schedule instead of straight linear depreciation. from 70's on life cycle of capital equipment etc has become shorter, due to technological competition, but it was not the only effect. more depreciation was a kind of tax shield.
even so, profit share started to rise in the 1970's, and this is not depreciation related. it's just a more competitive and energized management approach which disrupted the comfortable truce between labor and capital in the 50's and 60's. The tech factor comes from the CBO: Consumption of fixed capital has grown as a share of GDI since the mid-1970s, largely as a result of the shift in investment spending toward assets with shorter service lives (especially computers, communications equipment, and software) and thus higher rates of depreciation. Link Maybe it's wrong, but I'd like to see evidence. I assume the rule change you're referring to is MACRS and the like? I don't think that's a factor here since MACRS only applies to taxes. Not sure about your comments on profit share either since profit share was higher in the 50's and 60's, the the rise didn't start until the early 80's and then more significantly in the 90's. it's not wrong, but i dont think it is the only factor. the depreciation rule change in the 70's was mainly the ADR System, and MACRS was a further modification of this system. it basically allowed accelerated depreciation relative to the old straightline method. http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/tax-policy/tax-analysis/Documents/ota64.pdfthe profit trend is something like this. http://i.imgur.com/I1V3Sm3.jpg Fair enough. I can't say off hand that a rise in investment didn't happen or that it didn't contribute so I'm fine assuming that to be correct.
I am familiar with MACRS, but while the figure I cited uses tax return data, they adjust it to get closer to historical depreciation. Footnote 23: Consumption of fixed capital differs from the value of depreciation reported on tax returns. The NIPAs include a “capital consumption adjustment” to account for the difference.
Your profit trend chart is a bit wonky since one line is share of total (labor), and the other isn't (profit). You can see profit as a share of total in the graph I previously posted.
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Cayman Islands24199 Posts
i just googled corporate profit trendline im sure there are better graphs from the fed etc.
the rise in investment occurred in the 60's. the standard account of the 70's was that inflation made capital more expensive and there was not much capital investment, but this picture has been challenged and overturned by more recent research.
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What organizers are calling the largest-ever strike by U.S. mental health care workers began Monday in California, when 2,600 employees of the hospital chain Kaiser Permanente walked off the job. The strikers, all affiliated with the National Union of Healthcare Workers (NUHW), accuse Kaiser Permanente of failing to keep its mental health services adequately staffed.
Many regions of the country are running low on mental health care workers, but NUHW says Kaiser Permanente's failure to recruit more staff for its mental health services is directly endangering patients.
NUHW employees have been attempting to negotiate a contract with Kaiser for more than four years. And this is not their first strike against the company. But it will be the first NUHW work stoppage to last a whole week — a clear escalation in the ongoing labor dispute.
In addition to the 2,600 mental health clinicians on strike, NUHW said that 700 other members would refuse to go to work this week. They will return to work the following Monday. In the meantime, California media have reported that Kaiser locations will remain open to provide emergency services, while non-urgent appointments will be rescheduled.
Mental health professionals are in short supply nationwide. In 2013, 91 million U.S. adults lived in regions of the country experiencing a shortage of mental health care providers, according to the Department of Health and Human Services. Philip Muskin, a professor of psychiatry at Columbia University's medical school, said the shortage is likely to "only get worse."
"There aren't enough psychiatrists," he said. "That's not true everywhere — there are enough psychiatrists in Manhattan — but there are many areas that are terrible underserved."
NUHW President Sal Rosselli said the point of the strike is “to focus attention on critical patient care for mental health care patients” — particularly on the problem of inadequate staffing, which the union says presents a direct threat to the mental health of Kaiser patients.
Source
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On January 13 2015 08:33 Introvert wrote: They're both losers and I don't like either, so I haven't thought about any race between the two. We'll see how the primaries look by the time California's rolls around. I won't waste my time unless I have no other options.
Not that my vote would matter. If memory serves CA Republicans go moderate most of the time anyway. Heaven help us if either of those two wins the primary.
On January 13 2015 08:21 {CC}StealthBlue wrote: Both. Romney would be a third time loser, and as for Bush the conservatives have never liked powerful families let alone political dynasties. Not to mention say Bush wins the Primaries and during the acceptance speech and the balloons start falling, who joins him on stage which members of the family? Particularly such a dismal dynasty, from a Reagan-wannabe of "Read my lips" fame, to Bush's big government spending, there's been little to like. Romney's previous campaign was run like a loser, frankly only seeing animated when he attacked his primary opponents and for around 20 seconds in a debate. Romney also deserves censure for endorsing every RINO candidate against the conservative challenger in the midterm primaries.
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California Attorney General Kamala Harris (D) will announce her intention to run for California's open Senate seat on Tuesday, the Los Angeles Times and BuzzFeed report.
Harris, who has first elected to her post in 2010, has been widely expected to run for the seat currently occupied by Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer. Boxer announced her intention to retire last week. It is the first time California has had an open Senate seat since 1992.
A Harris spokesperson did not immediately return The Huffington Post's request for comment.
Earlier Monday, California Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) said he would not seek the seat. Newsom hinted to the Los Angeles Times that he would support Harris if she chose to run, but denied that he and Harris had struck a deal in which he would back her Senate bid if she supported his gubernatorial aspirations.
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On January 13 2015 14:34 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:Show nested quote +California Attorney General Kamala Harris (D) will announce her intention to run for California's open Senate seat on Tuesday, the Los Angeles Times and BuzzFeed report.
Harris, who has first elected to her post in 2010, has been widely expected to run for the seat currently occupied by Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer. Boxer announced her intention to retire last week. It is the first time California has had an open Senate seat since 1992.
A Harris spokesperson did not immediately return The Huffington Post's request for comment.
Earlier Monday, California Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) said he would not seek the seat. Newsom hinted to the Los Angeles Times that he would support Harris if she chose to run, but denied that he and Harris had struck a deal in which he would back her Senate bid if she supported his gubernatorial aspirations. Source Huh, lots of intrigue in California politics recently. This seems very well orchestrated to move all the good Democratic soldiers up the chain and position everyone nicely for 2016. Newsom for governor, Harris for Senate, Boxer probably lining up behind Clinton or whoever the Democratic candidate is, and Brown probably taking a run and/or retiring soon.
Feels very much like the upper echelons of Baltimore from the Wire in the last couple seasons. Republicans are such a joke in CA that they apparently don't factor into any of this.
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On January 13 2015 17:01 coverpunch wrote:Show nested quote +On January 13 2015 14:34 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:California Attorney General Kamala Harris (D) will announce her intention to run for California's open Senate seat on Tuesday, the Los Angeles Times and BuzzFeed report.
Harris, who has first elected to her post in 2010, has been widely expected to run for the seat currently occupied by Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer. Boxer announced her intention to retire last week. It is the first time California has had an open Senate seat since 1992.
A Harris spokesperson did not immediately return The Huffington Post's request for comment.
Earlier Monday, California Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) said he would not seek the seat. Newsom hinted to the Los Angeles Times that he would support Harris if she chose to run, but denied that he and Harris had struck a deal in which he would back her Senate bid if she supported his gubernatorial aspirations. Source Huh, lots of intrigue in California politics recently. This seems very well orchestrated to move all the good Democratic soldiers up the chain and position everyone nicely for 2016. Newsom for governor, Harris for Senate, Boxer probably lining up behind Clinton or whoever the Democratic candidate is, and Brown probably taking a run and/or retiring soon. Feels very much like the upper echelons of Baltimore from the Wire in the last couple seasons. Republicans are such a joke in CA that they apparently don't factor into any of this.
Brown is now term limited- the only reason he got to be Gov. again after his run in the 70s was because he served before the term limit amendment was passed. I don't think he will run for anything else, he doesn't seem all there as it is right now.
About the position movement- that's how it always works, you read the stories and you watch the predictable people move up the chain. None of what is being rumored is at all surprising.
My memory could be faulty, but the only reasons the Democrats didn't have a super-majority before the election was because so many of the Democratic legislators had to resign over criminal activity, lol. Then came the election, and they couldn't get it back. Small victories.
Even then, so many districts are close, and the Republicans could easily have had 4 more seats in Congress, and I think a similar number at the state level. A couple districts could have swung the other way if a few more resources were spent there.
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At this point looks pretty definite that Romney is running. Thoughts on if he can get the nomination, and if he can, can he get elected?
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On January 13 2015 22:22 LimpingGoat wrote: At this point looks pretty definite that Romney is running. Thoughts on if he can get the nomination, and if he can, can he get elected?
Well I guess the rumor is he is going to run to the right of Bush. If he just goes hard right he could eat up enough of the conservative support to give Bush the easy in. Presumably he'd get some sweetheart deal that netted him a lot of money/power/prestige.
If Romney runs basically where he was last campaign he eats into moderates and gives Conservatives a chance, if they can pick someone to rally around (the fact that they don't have a hard top 3 is a sign they will be far too late). If he runs a little harder right than last year and liberals up later in the nomination process, he could somehow end up being the nominee again (by being the more conservative of the two remaining) and conservatives will have no one to blame but themselves for getting Romney again.
Right now Romney goes to the highest bidder and Bush has deep pockets and cargo pants. So my bet is Bush running Romney as a conservative blocker. He'll talk Mitt into going full blown "Cantalope calves" and no one will buy it really, but it will force whatever conservative has a chance, to match his crazy.
I imagine Romney coming out and endorsing some mass deportation immigration law. Or something equally divisive where reasonable and/or moderate Republicans side with Bush's "principled position" and the conservative hope has to either endorse mass deportation or be seen as being more liberal than Mitt Romney.
Immigration makes the most sense as Romney showed there aren't enough right leaning white people for them to pick a president themselves. So Repulicans need some more of either the black, brown, and/or independent vote. Seeing as how they put "David Duke without the baggage" in leadership they kissed off the black vote. Wedging a mass deportation policy discussion into the discourse would pretty much force any hard conservative candidate to disqualify themselves from a national election. Which would force Republicans into yet another "electable" nominee despite conservatives best efforts.
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On January 13 2015 23:53 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +On January 13 2015 22:22 LimpingGoat wrote: At this point looks pretty definite that Romney is running. Thoughts on if he can get the nomination, and if he can, can he get elected? Well I guess the rumor is he is going to run to the right of Bush. If he just goes hard right he could eat up enough of the conservative support to give Bush the easy in. Presumably he'd get some sweetheart deal that netted him a lot of money/power/prestige. If Romney runs basically where he was last campaign he eats into moderates and gives Conservatives a chance, if they can pick someone to rally around (the fact that they don't have a hard top 3 is a sign they will be far too late). If he runs a little harder right than last year and liberals up later in the nomination process, he could somehow end up being the nominee again (by being the more conservative of the two remaining) and conservatives will have no one to blame but themselves for getting Romney again. Right now Romney goes to the highest bidder and Bush has deep pockets and cargo pants. So my bet is Bush running Romney as a conservative blocker. He'll talk Mitt into going full blown "Cantalope calves" and no one will buy it really, but it will force whatever conservative has a chance, to match his crazy. I imagine Romney coming out and endorsing some mass deportation immigration law. Or something equally divisive where reasonable and/or moderate Republicans side with Bush's "principled position" and the conservative hope has to either endorse mass deportation or be seen as being more liberal than Mitt Romney. Immigration makes the most sense as Romney showed there aren't enough right leaning white people for them to pick a president themselves. So Repulicans need some more of either the black, brown, and/or independent vote. Seeing as how they put "David Duke without the baggage" in leadership they kissed off the black vote. Wedging a mass deportation policy discussion into the discourse would pretty much force any hard conservative candidate to disqualify themselves from a national election. Which would force Republicans into yet another "electable" nominee despite conservatives best efforts.
I think that is a bit far fetched.
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Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) plans to introduce an amendment to the Keystone XL pipeline bill that would force Republican senators to go on the record about whether they think climate change is real and manmade, the New York Times reported Monday.
Sanders already floated the resolution last week when the Keystone legislation was in the Energy Committee, where it was tabled. The resolution's language states that "climate change is real; climate change is caused by human activities; climate change has already caused devastating problems in the United States and around the world."
The resolution concludes by saying that "it is imperative that the United States transform its energy system away from fossil fuels and toward energy efficiency and sustainable energy." Sanders's office told TPM that the language could still be revised before the amendment is filed on the floor.
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) has promised an "open amendment process" in the new Congress, which would suggest that the Sanders resolution might actually get a vote.
Source
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I'd probably say my bet goes to Rand Paul getting the nomination. Either that or someone who's relatively unknown compared to the others. I don't see Jeb Bush, Romney, Christie, or Scott Walker getting the nomination. And those names seem to be the big names right now, and all of them have big marks on their history that I think moderates would be averse to.
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On January 14 2015 02:45 dabom88 wrote: I'd probably say my bet goes to Rand Paul getting the nomination. Either that or someone who's relatively unknown compared to the others. I don't see Jeb Bush, Romney, Christie, or Scott Brown getting the nomination. And those names seem to be the big names right now, and all of them have big marks on their history that I think moderates would be averse to. Scott Walker is probably the guy that I'll support. He basically has the credentials of Christie without the baggage. If he fails, then I'll probably back Rand Paul just to increase libertarian influence within the republican party.
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Sounds like an easy way to get another vote, making it closer to being veto/filibuster proof.
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Walker would have to answer for his economic policies and if it wasn't for the soon to be bankrupt state of Kansas his sate would be the policy to avoid.
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On January 14 2015 03:11 {CC}StealthBlue wrote: Walker would have to answer for his economic policies and if it wasn't for the soon to be bankrupt state of Kansas his sate would be the policy to avoid. He fixed a far worse problem five years ago. We'll see what he can do this time around.
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