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if trump wanted to trim the trade deficit he wouldn't have undertaken actions to increase it like that fake tax cut earlier (admittely that was more republicans than him).
I rather doubt trump properly understands how the trade deficit even works; his rhetoric certainly doesn't evince such understanding.
People aren't objecting to the goal of reducing the trade deficit; they're objecting because the proposals/actions are unproductive.
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I find it strange that creating manufacturing jobs is still a central political focus in a country at full employment.
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On March 07 2018 21:23 Dan HH wrote:
I find it strange that creating manufacturing jobs is still a central political focus in a country at full employment.
it's because it's not full employment everywhere; there's still some areas/sectors with quite high unemployment; and/or where they're employed but in jobs far worse than what they used to have.
an dof course just cuz it's a political focus doesn't mean they'll actually accomplish much there; it simply means they can get people to vote for them by pretending to care about it. it's more about selling a narrative than about actual constructive actions.
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On March 07 2018 21:26 zlefin wrote:Show nested quote +On March 07 2018 21:23 Dan HH wrote:
I find it strange that creating manufacturing jobs is still a central political focus in a country at full employment. it's because it's not full employment everywhere; there's still some areas/sectors with quite high unemployment; and/or where they're employed but in jobs far worse than what they used to have. an dof course just cuz it's a political focus doesn't mean they'll actually accomplish much there; it simply means they can get people to vote for them by pretending to care about it. it's more about selling a narrative than about actual constructive actions.
https://www.bls.gov/web/laus/laumstrk.htm
Looks like only Alaska isn't within the margin. There is some wiggle room for a few other states but not enough to begin to justify such drastic measures as tariffs, which end up as inflation that affects all consumers.
On March 07 2018 21:28 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
That and livable wages.
Why would it be expected of manufacturing jobs to pay better than service jobs? Doesn't seem intuitive
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On March 07 2018 22:05 Dan HH wrote:Show nested quote +On March 07 2018 21:26 zlefin wrote:On March 07 2018 21:23 Dan HH wrote:
I find it strange that creating manufacturing jobs is still a central political focus in a country at full employment. it's because it's not full employment everywhere; there's still some areas/sectors with quite high unemployment; and/or where they're employed but in jobs far worse than what they used to have. an dof course just cuz it's a political focus doesn't mean they'll actually accomplish much there; it simply means they can get people to vote for them by pretending to care about it. it's more about selling a narrative than about actual constructive actions. https://www.bls.gov/web/laus/laumstrk.htmLooks like only Alaska isn't within the margin. There is some wiggle room for a few other states but not enough to begin to justify such drastic measures as tariffs, which end up as inflation that affects all consumers. Why would it be expected of manufacturing jobs to pay better than service jobs? Doesn't seem intuitive
They expect them to pay better because they used to.
GM had factories in towns employing 40,000 people. These jobs did not require a college degree and could make near the equivalent of 100k/yr with overytime.
Those jobs still exist but now the plant would employee less than 8000 people due to improved efficiency and automation.
I agree with your premise that a non skilled labor job is similar to a service job but theres a whole group of people who dont.
Im not keen on the 100k/yr stuff for those jobs but they should at least be paying a liveable wage.
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Wages have also stagnated for a while now. At least 10 years. Even though we are at low unemployment, a lot of people simply left the work force because costs to much to work and pay for day care or go off disability.
https://www.npr.org/2017/08/03/541220868/why-america-s-wages-are-barely-rising
On March 07 2018 20:48 Nebuchad wrote:
How do we feel about Beto O'Rourke's chances? I don't like that Ted Cruz ran basically unopposed and still got more votes in his primary than the democrats, but I don't know how much it matters.
Shoutout to the 5 people in Reagan County voting in the democratic primary btw.
The math for him is really hard because there are simply more Republicans state wide than democrats. 1.5 million Republicans voted yesterday. 1 million Democrats. That is a massive increase in Democrats, but it will take a lot for him to pull ahead of Cruz.
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On March 07 2018 22:05 Dan HH wrote:Show nested quote +On March 07 2018 21:26 zlefin wrote:On March 07 2018 21:23 Dan HH wrote:
I find it strange that creating manufacturing jobs is still a central political focus in a country at full employment. it's because it's not full employment everywhere; there's still some areas/sectors with quite high unemployment; and/or where they're employed but in jobs far worse than what they used to have. an dof course just cuz it's a political focus doesn't mean they'll actually accomplish much there; it simply means they can get people to vote for them by pretending to care about it. it's more about selling a narrative than about actual constructive actions. https://www.bls.gov/web/laus/laumstrk.htmLooks like only Alaska isn't within the margin. There is some wiggle room for a few other states but not enough to begin to justify such drastic measures as tariffs, which end up as inflation that affects all consumers. Why would it be expected of manufacturing jobs to pay better than service jobs? Doesn't seem intuitive
I agree that tariffs are stupid and counterproductive;
And that it's more about a narrative than an actuality (much like people often think crime is getting worse even when it's not).
i'm just providing some noste to explain why they think what they think and what they're seeing.
that said - there are a few points of note:
there's quite a lot of people out there who used to have $25/hour manufacturing jobs, and now they have $12/hour low end service jobs; they're still employed, but the loss in wages stings for them. this can affect entire communities at times; as there's a number of small towns wherein one factory/industry was the major employer, and if that shuts down the whole place goes bad, and most people can't afford and/or don' twant to move to where there are jobs.
if you look at the county-level maps rather than state level there's clearly quite a few areas which have some problems. I'm sure if you could go even finer grain than that you'd find a number of areas with major problems.
the labor force participation rate was down for a long time, and still is some; which makes the unemployed rate look better. i.e. unemployed measures people who don't have work and are looking for work. It doesn't measure people who are of working age and would work, but have given up looking because they haven't found anything in years.
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On March 07 2018 20:48 Nebuchad wrote:
How do we feel about Beto O'Rourke's chances? I don't like that Ted Cruz ran basically unopposed and still got more votes in his primary than the democrats, but I don't know how much it matters.
Shoutout to the 5 people in Reagan County voting in the democratic primary btw.
I'll eat a sock if he wins.
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On March 07 2018 23:58 ticklishmusic wrote:Show nested quote +On March 07 2018 20:48 Nebuchad wrote:
How do we feel about Beto O'Rourke's chances? I don't like that Ted Cruz ran basically unopposed and still got more votes in his primary than the democrats, but I don't know how much it matters.
Shoutout to the 5 people in Reagan County voting in the democratic primary btw. I'll eat a sock if he wins.
That's not very smart statistically =)
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I thought Carter page already started cooperating with Mueller? Am I missing something?
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On March 08 2018 01:12 Mohdoo wrote:I thought Carter page already started cooperating with Mueller? Am I missing something?
Just assume that Page is bad at email, responded to reporters and making good life choices.
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On March 08 2018 01:01 Nebuchad wrote:Show nested quote +On March 07 2018 23:58 ticklishmusic wrote:On March 07 2018 20:48 Nebuchad wrote:
How do we feel about Beto O'Rourke's chances? I don't like that Ted Cruz ran basically unopposed and still got more votes in his primary than the democrats, but I don't know how much it matters.
Shoutout to the 5 people in Reagan County voting in the democratic primary btw. I'll eat a sock if he wins. That's not very smart statistically =)
I know, but it's a bet I'm willing to make. The sheer size of Texas makes it very, very difficult for Dems to compete for state wide office. In my mind, Ted Cruz only loses if some sort of Black Swan event occurs, and I don't think it will.
Maybe in 6, 12 years this is a fight Dems could really take. Right now even with elevated turnout, etc. I don't think so.
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On March 08 2018 01:28 ticklishmusic wrote:Show nested quote +On March 08 2018 01:01 Nebuchad wrote:On March 07 2018 23:58 ticklishmusic wrote:On March 07 2018 20:48 Nebuchad wrote:
How do we feel about Beto O'Rourke's chances? I don't like that Ted Cruz ran basically unopposed and still got more votes in his primary than the democrats, but I don't know how much it matters.
Shoutout to the 5 people in Reagan County voting in the democratic primary btw. I'll eat a sock if he wins. That's not very smart statistically =) I know, but it's a bet I'm willing to make. The sheer size of Texas makes it very, very difficult for Dems to compete for state wide office. In my mind, Ted Cruz only loses if some sort of Black Swan event occurs, and I don't think it will. Maybe in 6, 12 years this is a fight Dems could really take. Right now even with elevated turnout, etc. I don't think so.
You're safe in this bet. Even with high turnout dems are still had lower turnout by 20 points
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On March 08 2018 01:13 Plansix wrote:Show nested quote +On March 08 2018 01:12 Mohdoo wrote:I thought Carter page already started cooperating with Mueller? Am I missing something? Just assume that Page is bad at email, responded to reporters and making good life choices.
I think this is in keeping with Page's past behavior in the news.
On March 08 2018 01:28 ticklishmusic wrote:Show nested quote +On March 08 2018 01:01 Nebuchad wrote:On March 07 2018 23:58 ticklishmusic wrote:On March 07 2018 20:48 Nebuchad wrote:
How do we feel about Beto O'Rourke's chances? I don't like that Ted Cruz ran basically unopposed and still got more votes in his primary than the democrats, but I don't know how much it matters.
Shoutout to the 5 people in Reagan County voting in the democratic primary btw. I'll eat a sock if he wins. That's not very smart statistically =) I know, but it's a bet I'm willing to make. The sheer size of Texas makes it very, very difficult for Dems to compete for state wide office. In my mind, Ted Cruz only loses if some sort of Black Swan event occurs, and I don't think it will. Maybe in 6, 12 years this is a fight Dems could really take. Right now even with elevated turnout, etc. I don't think so.
Texas will respond well to all the talk in DC about banning semi-auto rifles and blaming the NRA instead of the Sheriff's office for the tragedy. Texas will turn from more years of immigration or a Moore-style scandal, but not before.
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That doesn’t make ever house seat in Texas safe, but does make unseating Cruz a pretty hard ask. But making him work for it is a good thing.
edit: It should be noted that Trump's immigration policies and wall are unpopular in Texas and most of the boarder states. They are far more in touch with the realities of the board and our Mexican neighbors than most Republicans from northern states.
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If someone represented a somewhat risk of unseating a democrat in Oregon, there would be an unbelievably high turnout to keep that from ever happening. Oregonians strongly identify as a deep blue state. Even for people who don't normally vote, the idea of a republican representing us in the senate would make a lot of people vomit. I imagine the same is true in Texas. Lots of people who would sooner die than allow a democrat to represent Texas. Even of Beto makes a big splash and encourages democrat turnout, republicans would be scared into rallying the troops.
Some people may hate Cruz, but a lot of people legitimately believe democrats have evil intentions.
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On March 08 2018 02:40 Mohdoo wrote:
If someone represented a somewhat risk of unseating a democrat in Oregon, there would be an unbelievably high turnout to keep that from ever happening. Oregonians strongly identify as a deep blue state. Even for people who don't normally vote, the idea of a republican representing us in the senate would make a lot of people vomit. I imagine the same is true in Texas. Lots of people who would sooner die than allow a democrat to represent Texas. Even of Beto makes a big splash and encourages democrat turnout, republicans would be scared into rallying the troops.
Some people may hate Cruz, but a lot of people legitimately believe democrats have evil intentions.
From what I gather a lot of people legitimately believe republicans have evil intentions as well.
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On March 08 2018 02:53 Sermokala wrote:Show nested quote +On March 08 2018 02:40 Mohdoo wrote:
If someone represented a somewhat risk of unseating a democrat in Oregon, there would be an unbelievably high turnout to keep that from ever happening. Oregonians strongly identify as a deep blue state. Even for people who don't normally vote, the idea of a republican representing us in the senate would make a lot of people vomit. I imagine the same is true in Texas. Lots of people who would sooner die than allow a democrat to represent Texas. Even of Beto makes a big splash and encourages democrat turnout, republicans would be scared into rallying the troops.
Some people may hate Cruz, but a lot of people legitimately believe democrats have evil intentions. From what I gather a lot of people legitimately believe republicans have evil intentions as well.
Yes, but *those* people live in Oregon 
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EPT
