Are there better stats on maps available than what TL tracks? Someone may be able to narrow this down further with map versions in mind and I'm not going into tremendous depth here, I'll admit.

As always, when Flash plays, he inflates the win rates of maps. What if we cut his matches out of the stats. And beyond Snow, did any Protoss play well in the ASL? Bisu got the group of death, and Tulbo, well, yeah.

With what we got, if you're looking at these with statistics in mind <10% either way is well within the margin for error. Though I agree, anything close to 60% in any matchup indicates a possible favoritism. Are we considering 2-4% either way a bias towards a certain race? I don't. That seems rife with problems.

If you go back and look at the previous two seasons, 19 and 20, Pole Star, for example Terrans had a 0 and 16.7 percent win rate against Zergies. And if you go back to 19 and look at TvZ on a map like Death Valley (68% T) , Terrans didn't win a single game on it. Terrans pulled out an 83% win rate against Z on Octagon this season despite an overall (182 games tracked) 54% win rate. Roaring Currents is such a good example from last season about this too, did anyone who lost (Bisu, for example) play well on their ASL matches?

You get to a point, I think, that you have to look at the individual matches and when you do these statistics alone just don't hold up. It's exactly like the supposed gender pay gap in the US, when you start controlling for the various variables, it almost entirely disappears.

FlaShFTW

United States10463 Posts

2 hours ago

#962

On June 05 2026 09:45 Xenixx wrote:
Are there better stats on maps available than what TL tracks? Someone may be able to narrow this down further with map versions in mind and I'm not going into tremendous depth here, I'll admit.

As always, when Flash plays, he inflates the win rates of maps. What if we cut his matches out of the stats. And beyond Snow, did any Protoss play well in the ASL? Bisu got the group of death, and Tulbo, well, yeah.

With what we got, if you're looking at these with statistics in mind <10% either way is well within the margin for error. Though I agree, anything close to 60% in any matchup indicates a possible favoritism. Are we considering 2-4% either way a bias towards a certain race? I don't. That seems rife with problems.

If you go back and look at the previous two seasons, 19 and 20, Pole Star, for example Terrans had a 0 and 16.7 percent win rate against Zergies. And if you go back to 19 and look at TvZ on a map like Death Valley (68% T) , Terrans didn't win a single game on it. Terrans pulled out an 83% win rate against Z on Octagon this season despite an overall (182 games tracked) 54% win rate. Roaring Currents is such a good example from last season about this too, did anyone who lost (Bisu, for example) play well on their ASL matches?

You get to a point, I think, that you have to look at the individual matches and when you do these statistics alone just don't hold up. It's exactly like the supposed gender pay gap in the US, when you start controlling for the various variables, it almost entirely disappears.

ELOBoard is the defacto map tracker as the people on there track all the sponmatches, ASL, proleague, etc. It's extremely well kept and keeps very good stats.

Also, because FlaSh doesn't even play that much online like sponmatches or proleague, these stats aren't going to be influenced heavily by removing him. He's not like an online monster that's crushing everyone, so if you wanted to remove FlaSh's stats, you'd have to think about removing Soulkey and Snow's stats for their respective races too, as Snow is known for being an online beast.

10% either way is a massive swing. 55-45 is a very strong map for the favored side. To keep things balanced, the most optimal maps try to keep it within 53-47 or 52-48. Maps like Radeon succeed here, and plenty of 2p and 3p maps which keep it in line for every single matchup.

You're looking at extremely small sample sizes based on individual tournaments, which we cannot derive any meaningful data from. Pole Star on ELOBoard has a TZ winrate of 862-601 or 58.9% Terran favored. Why would I use a few games from an isolated tournament compared to 1500 games played? This reasoning doesn't make any sense.

Look at the sample size. It's massive for the most played maps. Of course new maps like Octagon and Attitude will have lower sample sizes, but we've established a pattern as well of consistent trends with rotational symmetry 4p maps. It's all there mate. But there's no reason to be "controlling for the various variables" because all the variables work both ways. Better Terrans play weaker Zergs, and better Zergs play weaker Terrans. If you're going to try to argue against tens of thousands of games and a historical pattern since these stats have been getting tracked, you're going to need to put up a better argument than wasting people's time saying you need to look at every single individual game lol. But sure, be my guest, make it a little side project for you.

Biff The Understudy

France8093 Posts

0 seconds

#963

On June 05 2026 04:43 FlaShFTW wrote:

Show nested quote +

Are Zergs winning because they are the best in the world, or are players the best in the world because they are Zergs?

I mean it’s a hard question, but it seems to me that, say, the top zergs like Soulkey, Soma, Effort, Jaedong, would all be favored in a bo7 against Light, who is an absolute tvz monster at that point. I am not sure that “imbalanced” map pool has solved that at all.

I might absolutely be wrong, I have a childish bias for terrans so I’m happy to be proven wrong.