On November 01 2017 13:58 Miragee wrote: I think Letmelose has a good point. "Sponsored matches are indeed important, but are not indicative of what will happen in the ASL.": This sums it up nicely. I think the notion that the ASL has the highest chance that peak performance happens is not true at all. It very much depends on the player. Some thrive under these conditions others perform way better under different conditions, be it team leagues, spon matches or whatever. The ASL actually provides the highest chance for interesting prepared builds (from Ro8 onwards) and a peak of who performance better under pressure.
Larva is a great example of someone who has learned how to bring his online skillset to the asl and such.
Who here agrees with the above list word for word, if you consider results from sponsored matches to match the overall form of players of today?
For example, SnOw is a protoss-versus-terran specialist, and played his most prized match-up in over 55% of his sponsored matches. Within his particular domain, he is a top notch player, but unfortunately you cannot pick and choose which match-ups you are going to play when you compete in the ASL.
There is only one streamer has had the upper hand versus Flash over the past six months, and that's Rain (head-to-head record of 27-25). However, just because he has a good read on Flash doesn't mean he is guaranteed to do well versus other players. ASL is not a testing ground for who can defeat Flash.
It is the same with Bisu. People sponsor more protoss-versus-zerg match-ups for Bisu, because they want to see him at his best.
Sponsored matches are somewhat like ProLeague matches of old. Players can often cherry pick their opponents of choice and map of preference. It is not the same as being put into a competitive environment where everything outside of your innate gaming ability and preparation is outside your control. You cannot ask for a rematch after you lost an elimination series in the ASL, just like you can ask your viewers for another sponsored match to "even" out the score. You cannot pick and choose your opponents, and dodge certain players if you are not "feeling" up to par.
ASL is important not because of the prize pool or the prestige, but because it forces players to perform no matter what the situation. You are called upon to perform at the highest level on that day, versus whichever opponent the tournament has arranged for you, on map pools that are totally outside of your control. The only thing a player can do is be at his best, not when he feels like it under comfortable circumstances, but with the hands he is dealt with. It is a test of mettle no amount of sponsored match success can replace.
Just my two cents on the matter.
I agree that spon matches are not indicative. As in, they CANNOT predict anything.
However, I disagree dismissing them entirely, because any sampling (the more recent the better), is relevant. And spon matches are the closest we get because there is something on the line (balloons = money).
So yes, spons 100% CANNOT predict future performance, but they are a good measure of the likelihood a player might perform against another.
On November 01 2017 10:57 Broodwar4lyf wrote: I don't hate on Rapid for trying his best and I appreciate the effort he put in even if he's not a real BW player but his commentating was just embarrassing and chose the korean stream instead. Where was artosis and tasteless?
Agreed. It's the semi's, at least have a commentator who knows anything about the game. Good effort, but impossible task.
He had no clue how to analyze a battle or general strategies. But mostly, he's talking about irrelevant stuff at the wrong times.
Even if this attack was desperate from Bisu, this just happened too often...
Also after watching games casted by Artosis and Tasteless lately, I feel like they're drawing away some of the potential tension from the game using the same mistake of not paying attention at certain times (mostly due to that either of them have started derailing some conversation into a funny/nostalgic joke or something which they can't stop telling no matter what happens). There is a time and a place for everything and it's important to not be talking about random irrelevant stuff (albeit funny) if something important is happening in the game. They have to either get better at deciding when is a good time to derail a conversation or be able to instantly shut down the conversation as something important is happening or both.
On October 31 2017 03:09 RWLabs wrote: Who are we kidding, Flash will probably win. I predict 3:1.
My heart says Bisu though.
I hate being right.
I really hope Hero pulls some kind of a miracle and beats Flash, because I'm really sick of Flash winning everything.
Yeah, it feels like repeat of 2010/2011. Flash got so good at his race that it was boring. I got tired of watching his games and just hoped he would lose so I could watch the VOD... I don't think Flash is as good now as he was back then. He makes a lot of mistakes he just didn't back then. However, the dominance is quite similar or maybe even bigger. There is no Jaedong that could challenge him. No Fantasy. Bisu would probably need a coach, as I stated in my last post. I don't know, without coaches in the scene people seem to be even more nervous and make a lot more uncharacteristic mistakes when playing Flash. I'm not saying Flash wouldn't be the best player out there but I think he wouldn't look as dominant as he does atm. Considering what he was able to do in 2010/2011, he certainly looks beatable today. Just not by the players and their currents levels in the scene right now.
Thats the question, do the players really need coaches for them and game to advance further because it just doesnt happen what happen is actually the opposite. I find it kinda surprising how so much people here think and figure out things to improve and change while most of the actual players competing playing dont change their play much over time.
On November 01 2017 09:18 RowdierBob wrote: People didn't really think Bisu was a chance to win this? When did Bisu last beat Flash in a meaningful game?
WL and PL finals?
when were those?
Flash lost to Bisu on Aztec in the finals for Shinhan Winners League 2011, after Bisu used his excellent zealot micro-management and multi-tasking to secure a lead which he capitalized on later.
Flash again lost to Bisu on Neo Chain Reaction in the finals for SK Planet ProLeague S1, after Bisu used his excellent zealot micro-management and multi-tasking to secure a lead which he capitalized on later. The head coach of KT Rolster personally approached Flash before the game, and said that the strategically smart thing to do was to send Stats (who had a 3-0 head-to-head record versus Bisu), but since everyone wanted a Bisu versus Flash ace match to decide the ProLeague championship, the head coach asked Flash if he would be okay with being sent out on a difficult map for the terran race. Flash would accept the challenge, and it indeed was a fitting match to conclude the last ever properly scheduled Brood War ProLeague, but ultimately fell short in the end.
Both these situations had Flash playing on a heavily protoss favoured map, and due to SK Telecom T1's plethora of counter measures versus Flash (BeSt, FanTaSy, and Bisu), Flash had an information disadvantage coming into these games. All three players from SK Telecom T1 had a superior win rate versus Flash when they were playing for their team, than when they were playing Flash outside the context of playing for SK Telecom T1.
Bisu had his fair share of triumphs versus Flash, even after his ascension to godlike status, but when these players had nobody else to prepare for but one another, it was often Flash that came out ahead. There's a reason why Flash has a lower career ace match win rate than all three ace cards from SK Telecom T1 (Bisu, FanTaSy, and BeSt). Almost every team had a plan coming in versus KT Rolster, and sometimes prepared weeks in advance for Flash should the matches reach game five, while the same simply could not be done for SK Telecom T1 due to their deeper ace card pool.
I believe the most recent triumph Bisu had over Flash in terms of an individual league setting, whilst both were playing professionally was in the quarter-finals for WCG Korea 2009, where Bisu pulled out what I personally think was one of the most insane execution of dragoon micro-management in history, to stop Flash's timing in the deciding third match.
He went 3-4 vs. Flash in sponmatches this month. The chance was there.
Oh please, you still talk about that result? Didnt you see what happened on stage, if Flash is serious he will 3-0 Bisu everytime on stage. Bisu dont have the nerves to withstand Flash, he was super scared and tilted making so many mistakes and desorienting moves. I told you cannot compare online and offline performance. During kespa Bisu won flash in Bo1 in proleagues, Bisu was best in proleague. For comparison Jangbi lost to flash in proleague two times bo1 but won in the OSL same year. Jangbi and Stork the only protoss players who dont tilt when play Flash on stage, but Jangbi is gone and Stork not in good shape.
PS Its another thing that hurt the scene after blizzard interference. Nerves have to do alot with that, its completely different to be having teammates and coaches helping and giving you courage on and off stage, its a different story really. Not only players wouldve been better, but also new good players shouldve rised from the continious practice at teamhouses. Thanks Blizzard for destroying professional Broodwar! Even if release updated version of bw for the rest of eternity you cant fix what youve broken.
On October 31 2017 03:09 RWLabs wrote: Who are we kidding, Flash will probably win. I predict 3:1.
My heart says Bisu though.
I hate being right.
I really hope Hero pulls some kind of a miracle and beats Flash, because I'm really sick of Flash winning everything.
Yeah, it feels like repeat of 2010/2011. Flash got so good at his race that it was boring. I got tired of watching his games and just hoped he would lose so I could watch the VOD... I don't think Flash is as good now as he was back then. He makes a lot of mistakes he just didn't back then. However, the dominance is quite similar or maybe even bigger. There is no Jaedong that could challenge him. No Fantasy. Bisu would probably need a coach, as I stated in my last post. I don't know, without coaches in the scene people seem to be even more nervous and make a lot more uncharacteristic mistakes when playing Flash. I'm not saying Flash wouldn't be the best player out there but I think he wouldn't look as dominant as he does atm. Considering what he was able to do in 2010/2011, he certainly looks beatable today. Just not by the players and their currents levels in the scene right now.
Thats the question, do the players really need coaches for them and game to advance further because it just doesnt happen what happen is actually the opposite. I find it kinda surprising how so much people here think and figure out things to improve and change while most of the actual players competing playing dont change their play much over time.
On November 01 2017 09:18 RowdierBob wrote: People didn't really think Bisu was a chance to win this? When did Bisu last beat Flash in a meaningful game?
WL and PL finals?
when were those?
Flash lost to Bisu on Aztec in the finals for Shinhan Winners League 2011, after Bisu used his excellent zealot micro-management and multi-tasking to secure a lead which he capitalized on later.
Flash again lost to Bisu on Neo Chain Reaction in the finals for SK Planet ProLeague S1, after Bisu used his excellent zealot micro-management and multi-tasking to secure a lead which he capitalized on later. The head coach of KT Rolster personally approached Flash before the game, and said that the strategically smart thing to do was to send Stats (who had a 3-0 head-to-head record versus Bisu), but since everyone wanted a Bisu versus Flash ace match to decide the ProLeague championship, the head coach asked Flash if he would be okay with being sent out on a difficult map for the terran race. Flash would accept the challenge, and it indeed was a fitting match to conclude the last ever properly scheduled Brood War ProLeague, but ultimately fell short in the end.
Both these situations had Flash playing on a heavily protoss favoured map, and due to SK Telecom T1's plethora of counter measures versus Flash (BeSt, FanTaSy, and Bisu), Flash had an information disadvantage coming into these games. All three players from SK Telecom T1 had a superior win rate versus Flash when they were playing for their team, than when they were playing Flash outside the context of playing for SK Telecom T1.
Bisu had his fair share of triumphs versus Flash, even after his ascension to godlike status, but when these players had nobody else to prepare for but one another, it was often Flash that came out ahead. There's a reason why Flash has a lower career ace match win rate than all three ace cards from SK Telecom T1 (Bisu, FanTaSy, and BeSt). Almost every team had a plan coming in versus KT Rolster, and sometimes prepared weeks in advance for Flash should the matches reach game five, while the same simply could not be done for SK Telecom T1 due to their deeper ace card pool.
I believe the most recent triumph Bisu had over Flash in terms of an individual league setting, whilst both were playing professionally was in the quarter-finals for WCG Korea 2009, where Bisu pulled out what I personally think was one of the most insane execution of dragoon micro-management in history, to stop Flash's timing in the deciding third match.
He went 3-4 vs. Flash in sponmatches this month. The chance was there.
Oh please, you still talk about that result? Didnt you see what happened on stage, if Flash is serious he will 3-0 Bisu everytime on stage. Bisu dont have the nerves to withstand Flash, he was super scared and tilted making so many mistakes and desorienting moves. I told you cannot compare online and offline performance. During kespa Bisu won flash in Bo1 in proleagues, Bisu was best in proleague. For comparison Jangbi lost to flash in proleague two times bo1 but won in the OSL same year. Jangbi and Stork the only players who dont tilt when play Flash on stage, but Jangbi is gone and Stork not in good shape.
On November 01 2017 13:58 Miragee wrote: I think Letmelose has a good point. "Sponsored matches are indeed important, but are not indicative of what will happen in the ASL.": This sums it up nicely. I think the notion that the ASL has the highest chance that peak performance happens is not true at all. It very much depends on the player. Some thrive under these conditions others perform way better under different conditions, be it team leagues, spon matches or whatever. The ASL actually provides the highest chance for interesting prepared builds (from Ro8 onwards) and a peak of who performance better under pressure.
Since team leagues are important offline matches (assuming pro league and the like) then they are part of the same category that ASL belongs to. Sponsored matches however belong to an entirely different category as they are online, played during a stream, and happen far more often.
It is probably more accurate to say that peak preparation happens at offline major events and peak performance is correlated with peak preparation (of course someone might randomly play the game of their life at any given time despite the actual level of preparation beforehand). Again, the psychological aspect of this could actually make some players play less than their best, especially when considering that a massive titan such as Flash is bringing his peak preparation.
Sorry I just don't imagine anywhere near the level of preparation that goes into offline events to be present in sponsored matches. And therefore, I consider the performance analysis of such matches to be far less significant.
On November 01 2017 13:05 usopsama wrote: Are the salty bisu fanboys really trying to make the argument that sponmatches are comparable or higher than the ASL? I don't even.
where was that said? The point was that sponmatches are extremely important because they are one of the ways the players can actually make a living. Not everyone gets a gazillion balloons like Flash does after all so you need to secure other sources. During the KeSPA era, you still got a salary if you performed well in PL even if you failed to qualify in MSL/OSL etc... but that's not the case here.
I do sort of wonder if sponmatches are gonna pave the way for a new variety of eSport in a world without leagues or salaries.
On November 01 2017 13:05 usopsama wrote: Are the salty bisu fanboys really trying to make the argument that sponmatches are comparable or higher than the ASL? I don't even.
where was that said? The point was that sponmatches are extremely important because they are one of the ways the players can actually make a living. Not everyone gets a gazillion balloons like Flash does after all so you need to secure other sources. During the KeSPA era, you still got a salary if you performed well in PL even if you failed to qualify in MSL/OSL etc... but that's not the case here.
I do sort of wonder if sponmatches are gonna pave the way for a new variety of eSport in a world without leagues or salaries.
lol that's a great perspective, it could be, especially if no one sponsors a game like bw in the future but enough people are streaming and watching it
I think it's also probably more sustainable long-term than the parent company throwing money at it. Without KeSPA doing any BW stuff and no guarantee of ASL continuing, it's still a means for players (old boys, specifically) to make a living off their skill/fame.
After that entertaining game 3, I was okay with Flash beating Bisu in this series. He earned it.
As for all the Flash fanboys saying that Flash was showboating and not taking Bisu seriously that game he went bio, they are wrong. You don't showboat when money is on the line. It was the best strategy in that scenario.
Game 3 really made the series worth watching for me.
Game 1 seemed like a usual Terran timing win.
Game 2 was funny in how epic Flash's wall-ins were. Was almost a pimpest play.
On November 02 2017 01:26 Alpha-NP- wrote: As for all the Flash fanboys saying that Flash was showboating and not taking Bisu seriously that game he went bio, they are wrong. You don't showboat when money is on the line. It was the best strategy in that scenario.
He was at 3 saturated bases already and scanned it early. Was bio really THE best choice?
Mass turrets and goliaths seems like a safer route? Or is carriers really good against gols on that map?
On November 02 2017 01:26 Alpha-NP- wrote: As for all the Flash fanboys saying that Flash was showboating and not taking Bisu seriously that game he went bio, they are wrong. You don't showboat when money is on the line. It was the best strategy in that scenario.
He was at 3 saturated bases already and scanned it early. Was bio really THE best choice?
Mass turrets and goliaths seems like a safer route? Or is carriers really good against gols on that map?
He was not saturated on 3 base, he barely could afford to produce off 8 rax and 1 factory, which you can afford with 2 saturated bases. You can see when Flash had to build turrets for the first 2 carriers he couldn't afford to build marines for a while. It was an all-in timing that didn't quite work but was a good idea.
I think Flash was already in trouble when Bisu went for super fast carriers and Flash for a third CC. He has to build so many turrets until goliath production would kick in. Even with his mass rax build, he didn't have any sizeable army ready when the first carriers arrived even though he cut scvs.
Factories cost twice as much as Barracks and he has to produce scvs and turrets to get his economy going. So he would probably only be able to afford like 4 facs worth of production while growing his economy and building turrets. Meanwhile the carrier fleet just gets bigger and bigger and Bisu can expand freely while putting serious pressure on. Maybe Flash could have won it but with the carrier fleet being on Flash's side of map the entire game I find that rather unlikely.
if you consider the stopping power of a barracks producing marines compared to a factory producing goliaths... plus the mining time lost for needing extra barracks (+7 rax instead of +2-3 fact) and he had ~400+ idle gas... i just don't see it as an optimized timing that he felt gave him the best chance of success, and i don't believe he would have even considered it had he not had a 2 game (or at the very least a 1 game) cushion
Anyone know if Flash practiced this bio-switch to answer 12nex->carrier before on that map? It seems like after he scanned it so early, he should know that Bisu is going to attack with the first 2 carriers and scout his barracks and therefor making reavers. I'm not sure how that could really work...
At the same time, any timing attack was impossible due to Flash's greed.
I think it was entertaining to watch, but in all honesty I believe that, given that Flash was on fire and Bisu was a bit off, Flash would have had better chances just playing mech. If anyone can pull it off, he can. With such greedy build he could probably get economy to hold off 2 carriers for a while and maybe even 4 and then his eco would be up and running.
Specifically Bisu and Rain have been giving Flash trouble with carriers on Crossing Field (50% winrate), so I guess that made him want to switch things up and surprise Bisu a bit.
On November 02 2017 04:24 Cryoc wrote: He was not saturated on 3 base, he barely could afford to produce off 8 rax and 1 factory, which you can afford with 2 saturated bases. You can see when Flash had to build turrets for the first 2 carriers he couldn't afford to build marines for a while. It was an all-in timing that didn't quite work but was a good idea.
I think Flash was already in trouble when Bisu went for super fast carriers and Flash for a third CC. He has to build so many turrets until goliath production would kick in. Even with his mass rax build, he didn't have any sizeable army ready when the first carriers arrived even though he cut scvs.
Factories cost twice as much as Barracks and he has to produce scvs and turrets to get his economy going. So he would probably only be able to afford like 4 facs worth of production while growing his economy and building turrets. Meanwhile the carrier fleet just gets bigger and bigger and Bisu can expand freely while putting serious pressure on. Maybe Flash could have won it but with the carrier fleet being on Flash's side of map the entire game I find that rather unlikely.
Right, calling it saturated is an exaggeration. But he had 3 bases up and running with SCVs mining on all locations.
And yeah, it was a good idea, but to me it felt like a high risk high reward kind of thing. If he pulled it off he would've won right then and there. If he didn't he would lose.
If he went turrets and goliaths he would've survived for quite some time, but he would've given the advantage to Bisu and would've had to play from behind and I haven't seen enough carrier games on that map to see how it plays out, but I am sure Flash has and obviously he didn't wanna do that.
But, if they were 2-2 and this was game 5, I still think he would've gone the safer route and tried to win from behind instead of trying to win with a bio timing.
Also, I don't think he expected Bisu to attack with his first 2 carriers quite so fast and scout the barracks so soon. If Flash got 1 round of production out of them before Bisu saw them it would've played out very differently.
EPT
