[ASL4] Ro8 Soulkey vs hero
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BLinD-RawR
ALLEYCAT BLUES48991 Posts
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BLinD-RawR
ALLEYCAT BLUES48991 Posts
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EsportsJohn
United States4883 Posts
On October 17 2017 18:06 BLinD-RawR wrote: I'm at work so I need someone else to update the thread and post polls I'll do my best to update it in between games. | ||
soldier8
Russian Federation60 Posts
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[sc1f]eonzerg
Belgium6322 Posts
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sM.Zik
Canada2542 Posts
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yOngKIN
Korea (North)656 Posts
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sM.Zik
Canada2542 Posts
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r.Evo
Germany14054 Posts
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tanngard
Norway1321 Posts
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BigFan
TLADT24917 Posts
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Murchaldo
18 Posts
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Dangermousecatdog
United Kingdom7084 Posts
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PVJ
Hungary5051 Posts
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XiaoJoyce-
China2908 Posts
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EsportsJohn
United States4883 Posts
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PVJ
Hungary5051 Posts
On October 17 2017 19:15 yOngKIN wrote: Is ZvZ still coinflip? Not at all, I'd say. Check out the all Z Ro16 group from a few weeks back, it was quite entertaining and displayed good strats instead of flips. | ||
BigFan
TLADT24917 Posts
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PVJ
Hungary5051 Posts
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PVJ
Hungary5051 Posts
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GTR
51135 Posts
On October 17 2017 19:24 PVJ wrote: Wait, if Shine is streaming this from home does that mean that someone else is observing???????? probably 910 | ||
[sc1f]eonzerg
Belgium6322 Posts
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PVJ
Hungary5051 Posts
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[sc1f]eonzerg
Belgium6322 Posts
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PVJ
Hungary5051 Posts
We should've had a zerg TT__TT | ||
BigFan
TLADT24917 Posts
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BigFan
TLADT24917 Posts
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Dangermousecatdog
United Kingdom7084 Posts
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EsportsJohn
United States4883 Posts
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NeoFlash
21 Posts
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pinkbowtie1
23 Posts
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yOngKIN
Korea (North)656 Posts
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nwDanon
12 Posts
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NeoFlash
21 Posts
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ortseam
996 Posts
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Keniji
Netherlands2569 Posts
On October 17 2017 19:48 nwDanon wrote: WTF was that natural hatch first in ZvZ ? yea 12 hatch. Not really WTF, completely normal build. | ||
BigFan
TLADT24917 Posts
On October 17 2017 19:49 Keniji wrote: yea 12 hatch. Not really WTF, completely normal build. yep. SK should be more diligent with his scouting imo. | ||
nwDanon
12 Posts
On October 17 2017 19:49 Keniji wrote: yea 12 hatch. Not really WTF, completely normal build. on 2 player map vs Z? Okay | ||
EsportsJohn
United States4883 Posts
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Murchaldo
18 Posts
On October 17 2017 19:48 nwDanon wrote: WTF was that natural hatch first in ZvZ ? 12 Hatch is very normal. It's a pretty stable build a lot of the time. It leaves you advantaged against Overpool and 12 Pool, and there ARE options against 9-pool speed. I have seen many games where the 12 hatch player sees the lings coming, cancels the hatch, builds a sunken + macro hatch in their base, and then wins the game off increased larva production. I think the plan here was "I'll go 12 Hatch, and it's a 2-player map, so I'll be able to scout and cancel if he does a 9 pool (or earlier), but herO's ling pathing was unreal, and by the time Soulkey realized what he was up, his hatchery was already finished. | ||
EsportsJohn
United States4883 Posts
It's not uncommon on Crossing Field where rush distances are so long. Soulkey messed up his drone micro pretty badly, but hero also prepared really well for the map. On October 17 2017 19:44 pinkbowtie1 wrote: Whyd soulkey not take back expo? Also, this lol. | ||
BigFan
TLADT24917 Posts
On October 17 2017 19:52 Murchaldo wrote: 12 Hatch is very normal. It's a pretty stable build a lot of the time. It leaves you advantaged against Overpool and 12 Pool, and there ARE options against 9-pool speed. I have seen many games where the 12 hatch player sees the lings coming, cancels the hatch, builds a sunken + macro hatch in their base, and then wins the game off increased larva production. I think the plan here was "I'll go 12 Hatch, and it's a 2-player map, so I'll be able to scout and cancel if he does a 9 pool (or earlier), but herO's ling pathing was unreal, and by the time Soulkey realized what he was up, his hatchery was already finished. probably gonna be the new meta. Hide lings after 9 pooling your opponent and attack before they can cancel | ||
soldier8
Russian Federation60 Posts
On October 17 2017 19:21 PVJ wrote: Man, is hero going to make it to the finals only to lose against Flash 0-3????? yeaaahh ))) that's true bro go soulkey!!! | ||
chuDr3t4
Russian Federation483 Posts
On October 17 2017 19:21 PVJ wrote: Man, is hero going to make it to the finals only to lose against Flash 0-3????? Relax, hero will win finals 3-0 against Killer. | ||
soldier8
Russian Federation60 Posts
taking too much risks | ||
GTR
51135 Posts
How ya like my groove, Daggoth? WELL DONE. | ||
nwDanon
12 Posts
I hope SK will advance coz Hero has no chance in the finals imo. | ||
BigFan
TLADT24917 Posts
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ortseam
996 Posts
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r.Evo
Germany14054 Posts
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PVJ
Hungary5051 Posts
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yOngKIN
Korea (North)656 Posts
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ortseam
996 Posts
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PVJ
Hungary5051 Posts
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Murchaldo
18 Posts
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Pandemona
Charlie Sheens House51325 Posts
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PVJ
Hungary5051 Posts
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BigFan
TLADT24917 Posts
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superjoppe
Sweden3680 Posts
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Dangermousecatdog
United Kingdom7084 Posts
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chrisolo
Germany2604 Posts
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pinkbowtie1
23 Posts
looks like 12H>9p new meta guys /s | ||
Vuk_91
Serbia1690 Posts
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hasuprotoss
United States4611 Posts
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soldier8
Russian Federation60 Posts
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Murchaldo
18 Posts
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PVJ
Hungary5051 Posts
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NeoFlash
21 Posts
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iPlaY.NettleS
Australia4254 Posts
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EsportsJohn
United States4883 Posts
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soldier8
Russian Federation60 Posts
On October 17 2017 20:10 Vuk_91 wrote: I know that this was a ZvZ, but for me this is the best game of a tournament thus far. Amazing. totally true..... the weight of this game, that might be the last chance to stay on the tournament magnificent game!!! | ||
PVJ
Hungary5051 Posts
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Zealgoon
China182 Posts
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PVJ
Hungary5051 Posts
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pinkbowtie1
23 Posts
On October 17 2017 20:11 Zealgoon wrote: how the fuck did soulkey win that i have no clue, honestly s-god | ||
soldier8
Russian Federation60 Posts
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EsportsJohn
United States4883 Posts
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ppp87
Laos250 Posts
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ShloobeR
Korea (South)3802 Posts
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Mrwl
Sweden339 Posts
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soldier8
Russian Federation60 Posts
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PVJ
Hungary5051 Posts
On October 17 2017 20:14 ppp87 wrote: this song... so annoying Yes just wanted to say this. Hearing half the song play out didn't help its case either | ||
BigFan
TLADT24917 Posts
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PVJ
Hungary5051 Posts
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ortseam
996 Posts
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crowbar
Sweden21 Posts
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ShloobeR
Korea (South)3802 Posts
+100 gas | ||
PVJ
Hungary5051 Posts
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ortseam
996 Posts
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ShloobeR
Korea (South)3802 Posts
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GTR
51135 Posts
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superjoppe
Sweden3680 Posts
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BigFan
TLADT24917 Posts
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chrisolo
Germany2604 Posts
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Dangermousecatdog
United Kingdom7084 Posts
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duke91
Germany1458 Posts
User was warned for this post | ||
XiaoJoyce-
China2908 Posts
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PVJ
Hungary5051 Posts
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orvinreyes
577 Posts
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ortseam
996 Posts
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ppp87
Laos250 Posts
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Zealgoon
China182 Posts
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RowdierBob
Australia12660 Posts
Nothing against Hero but would've much rather seen SK advance from this side of the bracket. | ||
M2
Bulgaria4077 Posts
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Golgotha
Korea (South)8418 Posts
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RowdierBob
Australia12660 Posts
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PVJ
Hungary5051 Posts
Killer v Mind Ro4 incoming. | ||
BigFan
TLADT24917 Posts
Now, if Flash makes the finals, well, I don't think hero would be strong enough to win. Maybe take a game and at least put up some fight? He's certainly a great multitasker and makes great decisions (that canceled gas in game 5 for ex or that inbase hatch in game 4). His mutalisk micro is also up there imo from the bits I saw so as long as he dedicates himself to practice hard for the finals, I think they'll be a great watch. | ||
fLyiNgDroNe
Belgium3958 Posts
I think large part of the reason of JD's success was his being equally strong in mirrors and non-mirrors. Sad. I wanted Soulkey to keep rolling. If hero knocks out both SK and Larva, we all are going to enjoy 3-0 finals. | ||
EsportsJohn
United States4883 Posts
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chuDr3t4
Russian Federation483 Posts
On October 17 2017 20:33 M2 wrote: the magic of ZvZ, the only match up in broodwar based on at least 20-30% luck together with a skill set that almost does not transition into any other match up:-)) The only match up where having good or bad results does not tell almost anything about your overall broodwar skill This is so annoying to read, if ANY of that was true how could JD be able to have 81% ZvZ WR and push the Elo record at the peak of BW(2009)? Like seriously, if you don't understand the match up it doesn't mean it is luck based. | ||
Zealgoon
China182 Posts
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EsportsJohn
United States4883 Posts
On October 17 2017 20:29 PVJ wrote: Pfffffff............ I........... am......... surprised. hero is in the Ro4. Wouldn't have bet on this when the Ro24 started. He's actually overall been pretty good. I think we just underestimate him because he's not technically at the same level as Larva, effOrt, Soulkey, and Jaedong. His preparation today was unreal, from the 9overpool build on Gladiator to the brilliant 9pool pathing on Crossing Field. In the games that he won, he was playing from an obvious standpoint of preparation. Tbh, Soulkey couldn't do anything in G1 or G5. Hero's build was just straight up better in every respect, and I think that was reflected in Soulkey's attempts to all-in over and over. The onus was on him to do some damage and get ahead, but every time he tried, hero just had more stuff. EDIT: It's possible that the build hero used on Gladiator is the primary reason he won. Not trying to devalue his play or anything, but being well ahead of your opponent in an otherwise "even" game in 2 games is a huge advantage. It's theoretically possible that hero gets rekt if he goes for something more "standard" in Games 1 and 5. On October 17 2017 20:30 ortseam wrote: Well hero has actually been the most consistent zerg in ASL so far This. I didn't think hero was all that good, but when I looked back at his ASL record, he's been in the Ro8 3 times out of 4. I think it's a case of not living up to his "potential" that we touted back in the SSL era of Brood War. | ||
BigFan
TLADT24917 Posts
On October 17 2017 20:46 EsportsJohn wrote: He's actually overall been pretty good. I think we just underestimate him because he's not technically at the same level as Larva, effOrt, Soulkey, and Jaedong. His preparation today was unreal, from the 9overpool build on Gladiator to the brilliant 9pool pathing on Crossing Field. In the games that he won, he was playing from an obvious standpoint of preparation. Tbh, Soulkey couldn't do anything in G1 or G5. Hero's build was just straight up better in every respect, and I think that was reflected in Soulkey's attempts to all-in over and over. The onus was on him to do some damage and get ahead, but every time he tried, hero just had more stuff. This. I didn't think hero was all that good, but when I looked back at his ASL record, he's been in the Ro8 3 times out of 4. I think it's a case of not living up to his "potential" that we touted back in the SSL era of Brood War. hero actually lived up to his potential in SSL. He lost to Bisu in a close series in SSL9 after Bisu did a 2 gate opener on sniper ridge then got revenge in the last SSL by destroying Bisu. It was unreal. Bisu looked like a completely scrub losing his hts to hold lurkers and his army to mass hydras without doing a thing haha. Bisu partially saved face in VANT against EffOrt but he also lost 3-1 there XD Agree overall though, I think hero is being underestimated but he has been somewhat consistent and placing high enough in ASL so it's not that surprising. Still, I'd rather have seen him win a close ZvP match to at least show that his skills overall haven't declined compared to the continuous flood of ZvZ since the Ro16. | ||
mishimaBeef
Canada2259 Posts
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Uldridge
Belgium4253 Posts
He was consistently able to pump out more lings/mutas with sometimes less initial resources and played smarter. SK simply managed to take wins by having the presence of mind during the chaos. | ||
Golgotha
Korea (South)8418 Posts
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Burned Toast
Canada2040 Posts
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yOngKIN
Korea (North)656 Posts
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outscar
2788 Posts
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EsportsJohn
United States4883 Posts
On October 17 2017 23:30 yOngKIN wrote: What if we get a herO vs.Flash finals and herO defeats Flash to win the championship We won't. | ||
blade55555
United States17423 Posts
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_Animus_
Bulgaria1064 Posts
Whats wrong with these youngsters really? Rain and Soulkey having such good play turn into suicide fest. Since when having an eco advantage means u have to desperately do damage to opponent who is getting more and more behind just as the timer is ticking anyway? He got way faster natural and gas in game five, he scouted with ling and knew perfectly that hero have the muta advantage and he just throw his place in the semis with easy hand. Now we have same old guys in the semi finals. If Finals are Hero vs Flash it will be one ugly stomp for Hero. I didnt see Hero being better than soulkey today, he had no better control and notable lack of multitasking compared to soulkey. Soulkey just throw just as Rain throw everything. After my big hope for dethroning flash is gone, dont think there is anything interesting to see after Bisu is out because Flash will toyplay with both Hero/Larva. | ||
TaardadAiel
Bulgaria750 Posts
On October 17 2017 23:54 _Animus_ wrote: The best zerg just suicided himself. Gratz Flash is the new champion. Whats wrong with these youngsters really? Rain and Soulkey having such good play turn into suicide fest. Since when having an eco advantage means u have to desperately do damage to opponent who is getting more and more behind just as the timer is ticking anyway? He got way faster natural and gas in game five, he scouted with ling and knew perfectly that hero have the muta advantage and he just throw his place in the semis with easy hand. Now we have the boring stuff, same old guys in the semi finals. If Finals are Hero vs Flash it will be one ugly stomp for Hero. I didnt see Hero being better than soulkey today, he had no better control and notable lack of multitasking compared to soulkey. Soulkey just throw just as Rain throw everything. After my big hope for dethroning flash is gone, dont think there is anything interesting to see after Bisu is out because Flash will toyplay with both Hero/Larva. Is larva one of those same old guys? I don't think you can safely say hero's going to beat him too. And when is Bisu going to be out? | ||
soldier8
Russian Federation60 Posts
On October 17 2017 23:30 yOngKIN wrote: What if we get a herO vs.Flash finals and herO defeats Flash to win the championship noooo way.. i hope he could win, but not now | ||
Dazed.
Canada3301 Posts
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tanngard
Norway1321 Posts
On October 18 2017 01:21 Dazed. wrote: Never bought into soulkey. Played cheesy last season, his record on afreeca is good but only against weak players. Neither of them looked like they are in form to take down larva. Should be a pretty one sided semi final. Soulkey online matches since 1.8 vs Last 10:7 vs Mind 10:7 vs Flash 16:21 vs sSak 10:7 vs Light 6:4 vs Mini 13:1 vs Shuttle 8:5 vs Best 12: 9 vs Bisu 4:4 vs Snow 7:3 vs Rain 2:1 vs Sky 5:0 So where did you get the idea that he has only good record vs weak players? http://sponbbang.com/profile/?month1=2017-08&month2=2017-10&map_id=0&bj_id=17 | ||
ne4aJIb
Russian Federation3208 Posts
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LucasWoJ
United States936 Posts
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TaardadAiel
Bulgaria750 Posts
On October 18 2017 01:21 Dazed. wrote: Never bought into soulkey. Played cheesy last season, his record on afreeca is good but only against weak players. Neither of them looked like they are in form to take down larva. Should be a pretty one sided semi final. Are we talking about the same player? He's scary as hell in non-mirrors and ZvZ is way too intense for me to comprehend, but I don't think he's bad at it, either. And how is it exactly that he played cheesy last season? Ok, he pulled a 4pool in a bo5 vs FlaSh. This is more of a virtue than anything, though, the seemingly uncheesable flash. And he took him to five games, and the fifth one was a nailbiter. Top3 zerg atm, if you ask me. | ||
batsnacks
United States4466 Posts
On October 18 2017 00:10 TaardadAiel wrote: Is larva one of those same old guys? I don't think you can safely say hero's going to beat him too. And when is Bisu going to be out? bisu gonna lose to killer :O | ||
conTAgi0n
United States335 Posts
Oh well.. in any case I do think Larva looks better in ZvZ than both hero and Soulkey right now, so he is my pick to make it to the finals. I would have rather watched him face off against Soulkey next round for sure, but c'est la vie. | ||
[sc1f]eonzerg
Belgium6322 Posts
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ppp87
Laos250 Posts
On October 18 2017 04:04 conTAgi0n wrote: Damnit Soulkey, what made you think that was a good time to attack with your mutalisks there in that last game? You had the slower spire, faster second hatch, and you knew hero skipped ling speed, so why pick a fight over his natural so early? And after playing so smart in the previous game too... Oh well.. in any case I do think Larva looks better in ZvZ than both hero and Soulkey right now, so he is my pick to make it to the finals. I would have rather watched him face off against Soulkey next round for sure, but c'est la vie. Seriously, that's an incomprehensible move from Soulkey, I just dont understand how it's possible to do it at pro lvl... can someone explain this move please. | ||
starkiller123
United States4029 Posts
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conTAgi0n
United States335 Posts
On October 18 2017 04:10 [sc1f]eonzerg wrote: im amazed about u guys saying larva looking much better based in 2 games where he mass lings. I mean I hear what you're saying, in that we didn't see his ZvZ muta micro in that group, but you're still not giving Larva nearly enough credit. He didn't mass lings in either game or go for any kind of cheese; he outsmarted and outmicroed both of his opponents pretty handily, both of whom are themselves very strong ZvZers. In his game vs Shine, they both opened 9pool speed. Larva won multiple battles between equal ling counts, and consistently had his lings in better positions than Shine did. The fact that he smashed Shine so hard before mutas after identical openings and more or less equal ling production is impressive, especially since Shine's ling micro is not too shabby either. Against EffOrt, once again, both players went for identical 12 hatch openings*. Both players made about 2 control groups of zerglings before the first engagement. Larva straight up outsmarted EffOrt by building sunks at home and hiding half his lings out on the map for a backstab. Apparently believing that Larva was behind in lings, EffOrt sent all of his lings to attack. Larva not only managed to totally crush EffOrt with his backstab, but also lost practically no drones at home despite defending with only half his lings and a couple of sunks. I'll confess that I haven't been watching Larva's stream often enough or actively enough to know what his muta micro looks like in ZvZ. Unless there is some reason to believe his muta/scourge micro lags behind the rest of his game though, I don't see how you can watch those games and not think that Larva is looking really formidable in the matchup. Even if all he's got going for him is his decision-making and micro with lings, that might almost be enough if he can keep performing like that. * Technically, EffOrt went lair before ling speed and Larva went ling speed before lair, so the openings weren't exactly identical. Since ling speed was finished for both players before the first engage, EffOrt actually had a slight bo advantage at that point, since his muta/scourge would have started slightly sooner. | ||
Miragee
8292 Posts
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L_Master
United States7946 Posts
On October 17 2017 23:54 _Animus_ wrote: The best zerg just suicided himself, Flash must be really happy because he just became the new champion. Whats wrong with these youngsters really? Rain and Soulkey having such good play turn into suicide fest. Since when having an eco advantage means u have to desperately do damage to opponent who is getting more and more behind just as the timer is ticking anyway? He got way faster natural and gas in game five, he scouted with ling and knew perfectly that hero have the muta advantage and he just throw his place in the semis with easy hand. Now we have same old guys in the semi finals. If Finals are Hero vs Flash it will be one ugly stomp for Hero. I didnt see Hero being better than soulkey today, he had no better control and notable lack of multitasking compared to soulkey. Soulkey just throw just as Rain throw everything. After my big hope for dethroning flash is gone, dont think there is anything interesting to see after Bisu is out because Flash will toyplay with both Hero/Larva. We already talked about this in the other thread too Animus, Rain didn't throw anything, he just got outplayed. Soulkey is one of the best late mech players around. But so is Larva. Acting like Flash is more likely to "toyplay" with Larva than he is with SK is absolutely ridiculous. Neither player has a good chance, Flash is Flash when it comes down to it, but Larva, SK, and EffOrt are head and shoulders the best ZvTers playing right now. Moreover acting like Larva's ZvT is even remotely related to herO's ZvT is ridiculous. herO is, and has always been, a decent ZvZer and at times a brilliant ZvPer. His ZvT has always been mediocre. On October 18 2017 01:21 Dazed. wrote: Never bought into soulkey. Played cheesy last season, his record on afreeca is good but only against weak players. Neither of them looked like they are in form to take down larva. Should be a pretty one sided semi final. SK has always been good. Not sure what there is to buy into. He was one of the strongest zergs at the end of BW era (close to 60% WR) and was clearly the best late mech player around in 11'/12', trends he has continued in till today. SK in ZvP or early/mid ZvT was never particularly impressive or brilliant, but better than average. As far as I can tell the same holds true now. His area of brilliance has always been in lategame ZvT, and in that area he separated himself from his peers, and is still clearly incredibly strong there. I don't think he is the second coming of JD, but he is a top tier zerg with particularly excellent late mech ZvT. | ||
[sc1f]eonzerg
Belgium6322 Posts
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[sc1f]eonzerg
Belgium6322 Posts
On October 18 2017 05:21 conTAgi0n wrote: I mean I hear what you're saying, in that we didn't see his ZvZ muta micro in that group, but you're still not giving Larva nearly enough credit. He didn't mass lings in either game or go for any kind of cheese; he outsmarted and outmicroed both of his opponents pretty handily, both of whom are themselves very strong ZvZers. In his game vs Shine, they both opened 9pool speed. Larva won multiple battles between equal ling counts, and consistently had his lings in better positions than Shine did. The fact that he smashed Shine so hard before mutas after identical openings and more or less equal ling production is impressive, especially since Shine's ling micro is not too shabby either. Against EffOrt, once again, both players went for identical 12 hatch openings*. Both players made about 2 control groups of zerglings before the first engagement. Larva straight up outsmarted EffOrt by building sunks at home and hiding half his lings out on the map for a backstab. Apparently believing that Larva was behind in lings, EffOrt sent all of his lings to attack. Larva managed not only to totally crush EffOrt with his backstab, but lost practically no drones at home despite defending with only half his lings and a couple of sunks. I'll confess that I haven't been watching Larva's stream often enough or actively enough to know what his muta micro looks like in ZvZ. Unless there is some reason to believe his muta/scourge micro lags behind the rest of his game though, I don't see how you can watch those games and not think that Larva is looking really formidable in the matchup. Even if all he's got going for him is his decision-making and micro with lings, that might almost be enough if he can keep performing like that. * Technically, EffOrt went lair before ling speed and Larva went ling speed before lair, so the openings weren't exactly identical. Since ling speed was finished for both players before the first engage, EffOrt actually had a slight bo advantage at that point, since his muta/scourge would have started slightly sooner. larva played bo1 vs 2 different players in a two very specific situations, the first game was 9p vs 9p both made 6 lings,Larva hide his lings and counter attack,shine made 1 extra drone and loss 2 lings for free to that counter,this made him loss drones ,larva just made lings and defended well the attack at his main.Larva vs effort was mean to be more of the same,if effort didnt attack larva will attack him in some kind of all in attack,turns out effort decided to attack(i think overconfident,most of the games i see effort lossing is cuz he likes himself so much) 2 games 2 different players,good strat for a bo1 where it shows a player can make mass lings,didnt excell lings micro,he just had more.I was pretty sure hero will win vs soulkey,his zvz zvp are very very strong,he will win vs larva,larva zvz is weak. | ||
L_Master
United States7946 Posts
On October 18 2017 05:39 [sc1f]eonzerg wrote: rain vs larva game 4 was a big throw The biggest throw was game 2 where Larva decided to just go attack Rain's giant army with all his lurkers at Rain's defended third expansion. I can see calling game 4 a throw at the point where Larva's attack at Rain's three had failed and Rain had just wiped out mining at both of Larva's top bases. That said, I can understand why he did it. He had just gotten absolutely held at bay in the previous game against Larva's crazy defense, and I don't think was feeling comfortable at all taking it to the lategame. Combined with the damage that had been done I think he felt his attack could win it, and gave more to it than he should have. To me though, Game 4 doesn't really exemplify what I'd call a throw, which is basically doing something really stupid to take an even position to an auto loss, or to take a won position and let you're opponent back in or equal to you with one boneheaded move. Rain's attack was a mistake sure, but it took him from being just a little ahead to back to an even position. It wasn't like he was up 200 supply and 5 bases to 50 supply and one mining base and somehow lost. It was the swing of a moderate advantage to an even game. Larva's swing in G2 was much bigger than Rain's in game 4. | ||
[sc1f]eonzerg
Belgium6322 Posts
but i guess you are right in something,the game in gold rush really did hurt him to a point that he played that bad after. | ||
Jack_
Italy38 Posts
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FlaShFTW
United States9652 Posts
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L_Master
United States7946 Posts
On October 18 2017 07:14 FlaShFTW wrote: To everyone who's constantly moaning and complaining about a player upsetting another player because he wont have a chance against FlaSh in the finals: shut up. There is no "should have". There is only "happens". A player lost. Maybe he didn't have his A game that day. Maybe the other player was playing stellar that day. Who knows? But to comment that a player shouldn't have won because he's going to get owned further down the tourney, then why play at all? Why would hero even play this tournament knowing he has no chance against FlaSh? Why would 4/5ths of this field play if they knew they had no chance against FlaSh in a BOX down the line? That attitude is terrible, and it undermines the level of practice and skill that the players have had to develop to participate in this tournament. Shame on anyone who tries to belittle or put down players simply because they can't beat FlaSh in BoX. The bolded mindset is indeed obnoxious and terrible. I think only a few are actually complaining that way though. As a viewer, it's reasonable to be disappointed that a good player didn't bring his A game to a particular series, as it does reduce the chances of having an incredible finals series. Suprises happen, but I think most of us would agree that a FlaSh vs Bisu or a FlaSh vs EffOrt or a FlaSh vs Larva series have the potential to be much better series than a FlaSh vs herO or FlaSh vs Snow or FlaSh vs Shinee. | ||
RowdierBob
Australia12660 Posts
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SlayerS_BunkiE
Canada1702 Posts
And mind isn't a freebie for flash either. Would be a big upset but mind has a real shot. | ||
NoS-Craig
Australia3078 Posts
Congrats to Hero though, awesome for him to get a top 4 finish. | ||
conTAgi0n
United States335 Posts
On October 18 2017 05:44 [sc1f]eonzerg wrote: good strat for a bo1 where it shows a player can make mass lings,didnt excell lings micro,he just had more. This just isn't true though. In both games, the ling counts between both players were very similar. Using this video for time stamps: Larva vs Shine After identical openings, Shine gets to Larva's base first (because he ran his lings straight there through overlord vision rather than carefully skirting around like Larva did) at 19m27s. Shine has 6 lings in Larva's base to Larva's 4. During the course of the battle, Larva hatches 4 more lings while 4 reinforcing lings also arrive for Shine. By the end of that battle, Shine has lost all his attacking lings while Larva has 6 defenders left over. Larva suffers only one drone loss. Meanwhile, on Shine's side of the map, Larva's 6 attacking lings pick off 2 of Shine's reinforcements. I wouldn't call that luck, since Larva had full vision of Shine's reinforcement route, while being careful not to reveal his own lings to Shine. Thus despite making exactly the same number of lings, Shine has 2 lings instead of 4 to defend his base with, and loses several drones. They both did the same thing off the same build with the same number of lings - immediately move out to attack while reinforcing/defending with continued ling production. Larva came out way ahead because he played smarter (avoided ovie vision) and micro'd better (in the battle at his own base). Larva's next attack arrives at 20m45s. He busts a 4 ling concave at the top of the ramp with 6 lings, losing only 1 ling in the process while killing all 4 defenders. Larva moves 4 of his lings in to attack, disrupting mining until 4 lings hatch for Shine. Larva then dances his 4 around while waiting for reinforcements, losing 2 of them in the process. When Larva's reinforcements arrive at 21m24s, it's 6 lings against 6 in Shine's base. Even with a few drones taking shots at Larva's lings, Larva wins the battle with one zergling left over. At this point Shine is so far behind that he just GGs as Larva's next 2 lings arrive. That should show about as exhaustively as possible that the ling counts were almost identical. Every advantage that Larva got in that game, he earned through smarter/more careful play, and just straight up better micro. Larva vs EffOrt As mentioned before, identical 12 hatch openings. Both make 2 control groups of lings, but Larva positions his lings out on the map, out of EffOrt's vision and near enough to backstab. EffOrt on the other hand parks his lings in his natural. Larva's overlord at EffOrt's natural sees all of EffOrt's lings, but EffOrt doesn't have much info on Larva's ling count. Larva puts down a creep colony at his natural and begins morphing it to a sunken as soon as EffOrt's other overlord spots it at 53m30s. Seeing only a dozen lings and a morphing sunken, EffOrt immediately sends all his lings to attack, apparently under the impression that Larva is building the sunken colony to compensate for a significant ling deficit. At 53m44s, EffOrt attacks with 24 lings against Larva's 12 plus a sunken colony, while Larva attacks with 12 lings against basically no defenses whatsoever. I don't think it's necessary to catalog every larva expenditure after that. Larva's defense was obviously impressive, and EffOrt's base was obviously fucked at that point no matter what. On October 18 2017 05:44 [sc1f]eonzerg wrote: Larva vs effort was mean to be more of the same,if effort didnt attack larva will attack him in some kind of all in attack There is no reason to believe that Larva would have attacked if EffOrt didn't. He wasn't behind economically, so he was under no pressure to pick a fight with EffOrt. More likely, Larva would have kept his lings out on the map for map control and backstab potential. If it seemed to you like Larva had more lings than his opponents in those games, that is just testament to how much better he used them. After counting basically every ling in both games, I can assure you that he neither all-ined nor even had a greater ling count. In fact, it is rare to see ZvZs in which both players were so closely mirrored as in these two games. | ||
EsportsJohn
United States4883 Posts
On October 18 2017 05:01 ppp87 wrote: Seriously, that's an incomprehensible move from Soulkey, I just dont understand how it's possible to do it at pro lvl... can someone explain this move please. Honestly, Soulkey had a lot less information that we did. If we put ourselves in his shoes, it looks like a mirrored build (9pool vs 9pool) in which Soulkey managed to gain map control. Off the back of that map control, he got an earlier natural and what he thought might have been an extra drone or two. With the assumption that both builds were mirrored, there was definitely a chance to bust his opponent there and then just keep flooding scourge until his mutas won out, even with that extra 100 gas that hero saved by not going ling speed (which could have also gone into a fast carapace upgrade and given hero a stronger mid game advantage). The same sort of thing happened in G1 as well. I'm tending toward believing that Soulkey had no idea he was facing an overpool in both games. From his perspective, it would have looked like a mirrored build where he had the tech advantage and a clear timing window to attack. | ||
L_Master
United States7946 Posts
On October 18 2017 08:33 SlayerS_BunkiE wrote: I think if its against bisu, hero has as good a chance as soulkey. And bisu has a better chance against flash than most people wld like to admit. And mind isn't a freebie for flash either. Would be a big upset but mind has a real shot. Yep. I think in all honesty Bisu might have the best chance against Flash of anyone in this tournament. Certainly his chances are at a minimum at least as good as SK/EffOrt/Larva would have had. | ||
RWLabs
Korea (South)273 Posts
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BigFan
TLADT24917 Posts
On October 18 2017 11:44 RWLabs wrote: Is it Stockholm syndrome if I start enjoying ZvZs? nope, these games today were just really good especially game 4. | ||
De4ngus
United States6533 Posts
On October 18 2017 11:35 EsportsJohn wrote: Honestly, Soulkey had a lot less information that we did. If we put ourselves in his shoes, it looks like a mirrored build (9pool vs 9pool) in which Soulkey managed to gain map control. Off the back of that map control, he got an earlier natural and what he thought might have been an extra drone or two. With the assumption that both builds were mirrored, there was definitely a chance to bust his opponent there and then just keep flooding scourge until his mutas won out, even with that extra 100 gas that hero saved by not going ling speed (which could have also gone into a fast carapace upgrade and given hero a stronger mid game advantage). The same sort of thing happened in G1 as well. I'm tending toward believing that Soulkey had no idea he was facing an overpool in both games. From his perspective, it would have looked like a mirrored build where he had the tech advantage and a clear timing window to attack. In G1 Soulkey's lings ran into a half-done hatchery at Hero's nat, and in G3 the overlord saw all the initial lings spawn, so Soulkey knew what opening build he was against 100% in both of those games. | ||
EsportsJohn
United States4883 Posts
On October 18 2017 12:21 De4ngus wrote: In G1 Soulkey's lings ran into a half-done hatchery at Hero's nat, and in G3 the overlord saw all the initial lings spawn, so Soulkey knew what opening build he was against 100% in both of those games. Fair. I still have to believe there's a reason why he went all-in in both games. I don't think it had to do with him just going retarded for a second, I think he actually had a reason for doing it...just having trouble pinpointing what it is. | ||
De4ngus
United States6533 Posts
On October 18 2017 12:39 EsportsJohn wrote: Fair. I still have to believe there's a reason why he went all-in in both games. I don't think it had to do with him just going retarded for a second, I think he actually had a reason for doing it...just having trouble pinpointing what it is. Well he was at a BO disadvantage both times, which is difficult to come back from in ZvZ, so there's that lol. | ||
Golgotha
Korea (South)8418 Posts
On October 18 2017 07:14 FlaShFTW wrote: To everyone who's constantly moaning and complaining about a player upsetting another player because he wont have a chance against FlaSh in the finals: shut up. There is no "should have". There is only "happens". A player lost. Maybe he didn't have his A game that day. Maybe the other player was playing stellar that day. Who knows? But to comment that a player shouldn't have won because he's going to get owned further down the tourney, then why play at all? Why would hero even play this tournament knowing he has no chance against FlaSh? Why would 4/5ths of this field play if they knew they had no chance against FlaSh in a BOX down the line? That attitude is terrible, and it undermines the level of practice and skill that the players have had to develop to participate in this tournament. Shame on anyone who tries to belittle or put down players simply because they can't beat FlaSh in BoX. This actually made me a bit shamed. You are right, all we can do now is hope for close and good games! | ||
L_Master
United States7946 Posts
On October 18 2017 11:44 RWLabs wrote: Is it Stockholm syndrome if I start enjoying ZvZs? ZvZ is excellent. Always has been | ||
rackdude
United States882 Posts
On October 18 2017 07:43 L_Master wrote: The bolded mindset is indeed obnoxious and terrible. I think only a few are actually complaining that way though. As a viewer, it's reasonable to be disappointed that a good player didn't bring his A game to a particular series, as it does reduce the chances of having an incredible finals series. Suprises happen, but I think most of us would agree that a FlaSh vs Bisu or a FlaSh vs EffOrt or a FlaSh vs Larva series have the potential to be much better series than a FlaSh vs herO or FlaSh vs Snow or FlaSh vs Shinee. Except Flash vs Snow would be awesome. | ||
TaardadAiel
Bulgaria750 Posts
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_Animus_
Bulgaria1064 Posts
On October 18 2017 05:01 ppp87 wrote: Seriously, that's an incomprehensible move from Soulkey, I just dont understand how it's possible to do it at pro lvl... can someone explain this move please. Nerves On October 18 2017 11:35 EsportsJohn wrote: Honestly, Soulkey had a lot less information that we did. If we put ourselves in his shoes, it looks like a mirrored build (9pool vs 9pool) in which Soulkey managed to gain map control. Off the back of that map control, he got an earlier natural and what he thought might have been an extra drone or two. With the assumption that both builds were mirrored, there was definitely a chance to bust his opponent there and then just keep flooding scourge until his mutas won out, even with that extra 100 gas that hero saved by not going ling speed (which could have also gone into a fast carapace upgrade and given hero a stronger mid game advantage). The same sort of thing happened in G1 as well. I'm tending toward believing that Soulkey had no idea he was facing an overpool in both games. From his perspective, it would have looked like a mirrored build where he had the tech advantage and a clear timing window to attack. He had seen no speed for hero, then snuck a ling into hero main seeing the faster spire, i doubt he think hero will be having less muta than him, it was just a tilt move, similar to that throw in game 1. On October 18 2017 05:36 L_Master wrote: We already talked about this in the other thread too Animus, Rain didn't throw anything, he just got outplayed. Acting like Flash is more likely to "toyplay" with Larva than he is with SK is absolutely ridiculous. Neither player has a good chance, Flash is Flash when it comes down to it, but Larva, SK, and EffOrt are head and shoulders the best ZvTers playing right now. Moreover acting like Larva's ZvT is even remotely related to herO's ZvT is ridiculous. herO is, and has always been, a decent ZvZer and at times a brilliant ZvPer. His ZvT has always been mediocre. We seem to understand the term outplayed in different ways. For me its just Rain outplayed himself into favor of Larva. Having same number of bases against protoss and droping to almost half of his limit is something that i cannot agree a better player will do against his opponent. I hope to see Larva doing at least on the same level as Soulkey vs Flash in this tournament, until that happen il have my doubts about him. | ||
_Animus_
Bulgaria1064 Posts
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orvinreyes
577 Posts
Ro8 Larva vs Rain: 31 Games, 20W 11L = 64.5% Larva dominating victory (fulfilled) Hero vs Soulkey: 17 Games, 9W 8L = 52.9% Hero slight edge victory (fulfilled) Bisu vs killer: 16 Games, 14W 2L = 87.5% Bisu dominating victory - prediction Flash vs Mind: 14 Games, 11W 3L = 78.6% Flash dominating victory - prediction --- Ro4 hero vs Larva: 7 Games, 6W 1L = 85.7% Hero dominating victory - prediction Flash vs Bisu: 27 Games, 18W 9L = 66.7% Flash dominating victory - prediction --- Finals Flash vs hero: 60 Games, 49W 11L = 81.7% Flash dominating victory - prediction | ||
IntoTheStorm
116 Posts
On October 18 2017 19:19 orvinreyes wrote: At the rate things are going maybe it makes sense to predict outcomes using 6-month spon match statistics (5/17 to 10/17): No, it doesn't work like that, we can not reliably predict future events based on data from the past, the future doesn't work like that. This is like trying to predict how severe the next financial crisis will be. You just can't. You stress test the banks with crisis from the past but no, it still sucks for prediction. Because the future one will somehow always be stronger. It's the same in sports. This team wins 80% of games past so it will win in the finals. No, no, no. The team might win but it's not because of past victories, this is not a reliable point on which to base future predictions. Never has been, never will be. | ||
Skybrod
Russian Federation19 Posts
On October 18 2017 19:40 IntoTheStorm wrote: No, it doesn't work like that, we can not reliably predict future events based on data from the past, the future doesn't work like that. This is like trying to predict how severe the next financial crisis will be. You just can't. You stress test the banks with crisis from the past but no, it still sucks for prediction. Because the future one will somehow always be stronger. It's the same in sports. This team wins 80% of games past so it will win in the finals. No, no, no. The team might win but it's not because of past victories, this is not a reliable point on which to base future predictions. Never has been, never will be. Well, we can, to some degree, but the prediction does not work for a single match or even for a bo 5, as you correctly point out. We can estimate, given a large sample of games that, say, Bisu's true skill in PvZ in X%, and Flash's true skill in TvZ is Y%, but it doesn't of course mean that they win their next BO3 or BO5 3-1 or 3-2, because it's just too much variation. It means that in the long run they are most likely to have X% or Y% winrate in a particular matchup. Needless to say, the data sample cited above is way too small. Besides, ZvZ is probably much much harder to predict and needs probably x3 or x4 size of a sample to atleast start talking about estimating the players. Most probably, the data we have is sufficient only for determining how one particular player does in a certain matchup. We will most probably never be able to reliably evaluate player vs. player data, although if Larva sometime in the future amasses 1000 recorded games vs. Flash and 1000 vs. Bisu, maybe it will be possible then. | ||
IntoTheStorm
116 Posts
On October 18 2017 19:49 Skybrod wrote: although if Larva sometime in the future amasses 1000 recorded games vs. Flash and 1000 vs. Bisu, maybe it will be possible then. No, it would still not be possible, regardless of the sample size, 1000 or 10000 games vs a said player. You would only know that Larva has won like 40% of the past games vs Bisu.Or 50%, 60%, whatever. You can not predict the outcome of the next game based on that. It should be clear to everyone. There is randomness, there are other things that affect how a player plays a game, there is health, there is attitude at the time of the game, there is mentality - too many factors to reliably predict anything. And this is the beauty of all competition - it is unpredictable, rare events do happen and influence the outcome of competition. This unpredictability is what bookmakers make their money off of. For spectators like us, this quality of the games is amazing - to not know when the favorite will slip, this is what makes every sport (electronic of physical) attractive to me. This is why I watch muay thai matches - there is this dude, he is probably better but does it mean an auto win? No, the other guy is there to challenge and test him. He might connect with an elbow or a head kick, you never know. | ||
orvinreyes
577 Posts
On October 18 2017 20:12 IntoTheStorm wrote: No, it would still not be possible, regardless of the sample size, 1000 or 10000 games vs a said player. You would only know that Larva has won like 40% of the past games vs Bisu.Or 50%, 60%, whatever. You can not predict the outcome of the next game based on that. It should be clear to everyone. There is randomness, there are other things that affect how a player plays a game, there is health, there is attitude at the time of the game, there is mentality - too many factors to reliably predict anything. And this is the beauty of all competition - it is unpredictable, rare events do happen and influence the outcome of competition. This unpredictability is what bookmakers make their money off of. For spectators like us, this quality of the games is amazing - to not know when the favorite will slip, this is what makes every sport (electronic of physical) attractive to me. This is why I watch muay thai matches - there is this dude, he is probably better but does it mean an auto win? No, the other guy is there to challenge and test him. He might connect with an elbow or a head kick, you never know. Fully agree, correlation != causation. I played enough poker and bet on enough stocks and fx trades to know. Those are just my predictions for fun. Sorry if I shit on the sweet science of statistics. | ||
2Pacalypse-
Croatia9362 Posts
On October 18 2017 19:40 IntoTheStorm wrote: No, it doesn't work like that, we can not reliably predict future events based on data from the past, the future doesn't work like that. You've just described whole of science. Saying it doesn't work is quite funny. | ||
Skybrod
Russian Federation19 Posts
On October 18 2017 20:12 IntoTheStorm wrote: No, it would still not be possible, regardless of the sample size, 1000 or 10000 games vs a said player. You would only know that Larva has won like 40% of the past games vs Bisu.Or 50%, 60%, whatever. You can not predict the outcome of the next game based on that. It should be clear to everyone. There is randomness, there are other things that affect how a player plays a game, there is health, there is attitude at the time of the game, there is mentality - too many factors to reliably predict anything. And this is the beauty of all competition - it is unpredictable, rare events do happen and influence the outcome of competition. This unpredictability is what bookmakers make their money off of. For spectators like us, this quality of the games is amazing - to not know when the favorite will slip, this is what makes every sport (electronic of physical) attractive to me. This is why I watch muay thai matches - there is this dude, he is probably better but does it mean an auto win? No, the other guy is there to challenge and test him. He might connect with an elbow or a head kick, you never know. I did not claim that one could predict the outcome of the next game, I explicitly stated that it is not possible, I was talking about the estimate of a player's perfomance in the long run, given sufficiently large sample size. That's how projections in baseball nowadays work. They project a player's whole season (400-500 plate appearances), although baseball is probably better suited for analysis than BW matches. I would also disagree with you on your claim that prediction is not possible based on previous data. There's such thing as statistical learning which is applied to many spheres. E.g. if the size of tumor strongly correlates with the fact whether this tumor is malign or benign, we can make a sufficiently accurate prediction that if a person has a tumor of certain size, there's a good chance it will be malign/benign. Sorry for the offtop, just to illustrate the point. | ||
Djabanete
United States2783 Posts
His overlord-dodging on Crossing Field was awesome. | ||
DOgMeAt
Czech Republic135 Posts
On October 18 2017 20:45 2Pacalypse- wrote: You've just described whole of science. Saying it doesn't work is quite funny. User was warned for this post | ||
EsportsJohn
United States4883 Posts
On October 18 2017 19:40 IntoTheStorm wrote: No, it doesn't work like that, we can not reliably predict future events based on data from the past, the future doesn't work like that.5 Lolwut | ||
chuDr3t4
Russian Federation483 Posts
On October 18 2017 07:14 FlaShFTW wrote: To everyone who's constantly moaning and complaining about a player upsetting another player because he wont have a chance against FlaSh in the finals: shut up. There is no "should have". There is only "happens". A player lost. Maybe he didn't have his A game that day. Maybe the other player was playing stellar that day. Who knows? But to comment that a player shouldn't have won because he's going to get owned further down the tourney, then why play at all? Why would hero even play this tournament knowing he has no chance against FlaSh? Why would 4/5ths of this field play if they knew they had no chance against FlaSh in a BOX down the line? That attitude is terrible, and it undermines the level of practice and skill that the players have had to develop to participate in this tournament. Shame on anyone who tries to belittle or put down players simply because they can't beat FlaSh in BoX. amen | ||
Eywa-
Canada4876 Posts
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L_Master
United States7946 Posts
I'm not sure what he is trying to say either. If he is just saying that you can predict, as in know for certain the outcome, then yea that's certainly true but also incredibly obvious. I think that's what he is trying to say because in his quote below he says "this team wins 80% of games past so it WILL win the finals". Obviously, we can't use the word will, and I think that's all he is trying to say. If he is trying to say that you can't use data to predict the likelihood of a particular outcome...then he is just off the rails crazy. On October 18 2017 19:40 IntoTheStorm wrote: This team wins 80% of games past so it will win in the finals. No, no, no. The team might win but it's not because of past victories, this is not a reliable point on which to base future predictions. Never has been, never will be. No they won't win because of past victories. + Show Spoiler + Well, at least considering what we are talking about. Obviously past victories can improve a player by increasing confidence, offering opportunites to improve strategy, etc. but that's not what this discussion is about. On the other hand we absolutely can use past results to predict the chances of a particular outcome. If Flash beat's Bisu 65% of the time, you're right it doesn't mean Flash WILL beat Bisu this time in a single game, a Bo5, or even a Bo99. What it does mean is that Flash's odds of winning against Bisu in a Bo5 are about 77%. Interestingly, if you assume Flash's WR is an even 70% his odds of winning from Ro8 on out are about 60%. His chances of winning the tournament from the Ro16 are a little trickier because group stage is not a Bo5, but would likely be around 45%. | ||
TaardadAiel
Bulgaria750 Posts
On October 18 2017 21:36 Skybrod wrote: I did not claim that one could predict the outcome of the next game, I explicitly stated that it is not possible, I was talking about the estimate of a player's perfomance in the long run, given sufficiently large sample size. That's how projections in baseball nowadays work. They project a player's whole season (400-500 plate appearances), although baseball is probably better suited for analysis than BW matches. I would also disagree with you on your claim that prediction is not possible based on previous data. There's such thing as statistical learning which is applied to many spheres. E.g. if the size of tumor strongly correlates with the fact whether this tumor is malign or benign, we can make a sufficiently accurate prediction that if a person has a tumor of certain size, there's a good chance it will be malign/benign. Sorry for the offtop, just to illustrate the point. This discussion is way too philosophical, to be honest. Not a bad thing, but all points are valid logically and impossible to prove, since at a certain level EVERYTHING is unpredictable, including my own involvement with this thread. A roof tile may fall on my head when I leave home. I really hope not, though. EDIT: More seriously, though, statistics are of no practical use in this scenario. No progamer would go into the match unprepared because he has the better record against the opponent; I seriously doubt intimidation or complacency based on records is a factor for experienced players either. Besides betting with money on the line, there's no use for statistics for us fans. We can argue all we want and I for example will still have my chest pounding in every game Flash is playing from now on. In my job we use statistical models all the time, mostly for risk stratification. And, of course, no one ever goes to work resigned to a negative outcome just because his last 100 patients survived, so this one won't. | ||
Alejandrisha
United States6565 Posts
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L_Master
United States7946 Posts
On October 18 2017 20:12 IntoTheStorm wrote: No, it would still not be possible, regardless of the sample size, 1000 or 10000 games vs a said player. You would only know that Larva has won like 40% of the past games vs Bisu.Or 50%, 60%, whatever. You can not predict the outcome of the next game based on that. It should be clear to everyone. It is clear to everyone...that you can make predictions about what will happen. In fact, making a prediction is simply saying "I think Bisu will win". I can do that with no evidence at all. Pretty hollow predication, but I could make it. Again, if you mean know for certain who will win, obviously not. But no one in there right mind would ever think you could know for certain who was going to win based on past results. What you CAN do, is state the probability of certain results. As outlined before, if Flash wins 80% of his games versus hero, his odds of winning a Bo5 against him are about 94%. This is where a large sample size can help increase confidence in those odds. If Flash had just appeared and won 4-1 against Bisu we wouldn't know if he just had the most amazing day of his life or is that was fairly typical play. But if Flash has played against Bisu for 100k games, then we have a reasonably sampling of conditions taking into account good days/bad days that tells us in general how Flash performs against Bisu. It says if both players are on an average day, this is the likelihood of winning. As you have mentioned, there are good days and bad days; aka variation. If Flash is sick, he might lose; which we know is a possible outcome because Flash has a 23% chance of losing a Bo5 to Bisu if he wins 65% of their games. You even know this intrinsically as you stated: This is why I watch muay thai matches - there is this dude, he is probably better but does it mean an auto win? You understand this concept intrinsically. t's no different that saying that FlaSh is a better starcraft player than Artosis. If I asked you think is going to win if Flash played Artosis, you would obviously answer FlaSh; same as you would if I offered you $100k if you correctly guess the winner of a Bo5 between FlaSh and Artosis. The fact that you'd pick FlaSh means you think he is more likely to win. Well...why do you think that? Certainly you don't know anything about how ready Flash is to play right now or how his condition would be in two days, so you can't be making your decision based on that. What's left? Past results, performance, and gameplay. You've just used FlaSh's past starcraft to make a future decision about who is more likely to win and which player you should pick to optimize your chances to earn $100k. | ||
Skybrod
Russian Federation19 Posts
On October 19 2017 03:54 L_Master wrote: On the other hand we absolutely can use past results to predict the chances of a particular outcome. If Flash beat's Bisu 65% of the time, you're right it doesn't mean Flash WILL beat Bisu this time in a single game, a Bo5, or even a Bo99. What it does mean is that Flash's odds of winning against Bisu in a Bo5 are about 77%. Interestingly, if you assume Flash's WR is an even 70% his odds of winning from Ro8 on out are about 60%. His chances of winning the tournament from the Ro16 are a little trickier because group stage is not a Bo5, but would likely be around 45%. I guess what he is trying to say is that the outcome of a single game or a short series of games cannot be predicted accurately on the basis of the previous data, and that is true. | ||
L_Master
United States7946 Posts
On October 19 2017 03:55 TaardadAiel wrote: This discussion is way too philosophical, to be honest. Not a bad thing, but all points are valid logically and impossible to prove, since at a certain level EVERYTHING is unpredictable, including my own involvement with this thread. A roof tile may fall on my head when I leave home. I really hope not, though. This is actually a pretty argued topic. One strong belief is that at a certain level everything is completely predictable and determined. If you know all the initial conditions of the universe of all particles, and apply the laws of physics to them, there is only one way they can behave and thus one possible outcome. | ||
L_Master
United States7946 Posts
On October 19 2017 04:15 Skybrod wrote: I guess what he is trying to say is that the outcome of a single game or a short series of games cannot be predicted accurately on the basis of the previous data, and that is true. I think that would just be a matter of semantics and what you consider to be "accurate" then. If accuracy means perfect predictions, then definitely not. But if accuracy is some agreed upon value, then it's possible to be accurate. | ||
TaardadAiel
Bulgaria750 Posts
On October 19 2017 04:17 L_Master wrote: This is actually a pretty argued topic. One strong belief is that at a certain level everything is completely predictable and determined. If you know all the initial conditions of the universe of all particles, and apply the laws of physics to them, there is only one way they can behave and thus one possible outcome. That would be true if you had all the information, though. I meant it more practically. And regarding particle behavour, I've always thought Brownian motion is a stochastic process, implying random variables. But I'm no physicist or statistician or mathematician and this is getting really off-topic. | ||
Skybrod
Russian Federation19 Posts
On October 19 2017 04:18 L_Master wrote: I think that would just be a matter of semantics and what you consider to be "accurate" then. If accuracy means perfect predictions, then definitely not. But if accuracy is some agreed upon value, then it's possible to be accurate. What I mean is the same that you said: the result of flipping a coin 5 times in a row will fluctuate greatly from the expected result, even if this coin is "loaded" (like in Flash vs. Bisu probably). In other words, we should expect almost anything out of BO5, where Bisu and Flash play, but if they played another 1000 games, then we would expect Flash to be winning 55% of the time (or some other percentage). Correct me, if I am wrong, but that's how I understand these percentages (my knowledge in this area is quite limited). | ||
conTAgi0n
United States335 Posts
Speaking a little more practically, taking the W/L percentage across 6 months of spon matches is meaningful and worthwhile, but is unreliable as an approximation of win probability for upcoming Bo5 ASL matches. There are just way too many relevant factors that it doesn't account for. Some basic examples:
There are plenty of other factors you could come up with besides these as well. Point is, it's not merely a problem of sample sizes. This sort of data aggregation is just too coarse to serve as a surrogate for win probability in upcoming ASL matches. | ||
EsportsJohn
United States4883 Posts
What is going on with you guys? It's like the laws of physics have suddenly changed on TL. | ||
Eywa-
Canada4876 Posts
On October 19 2017 13:21 conTAgi0n wrote: [*]Aggregate match-by-match WL statistics may not accurately reflect a player's performance in series play. Some players are better than others at planning for a BoX format, and some players have BoX winrates higher than their individual match winrates. For example, in ASLs 1-3 from the Round of 8 on, Flash has won 18 out of 27 individual matches (67% winrate), but 6 out of 7 Bo5s (86% winrate). Well, statistically speaking, your BoX winrate should always be further from the 50% line than your actual win rate, the phenomenon you're describing can be easily calculated as seen below... With a 67% win rate, you should win 78% of Bo5 series (I would argue that 7 is a low sample size, therefore 8% is still an acceptable margin for error). WWL 1-0 67% WWL 2-0 45% 1-1 44% 0-2 11% WWL 3-0 30% 2-1 44% 1-2 22% 0-3 4% WWL 3-1 29% 2-2 29% 1-3 7% WWL 3-2 19% 2-3 10% Win ~78% Loss ~21% I'm not saying that there is no such thing as someone who is good at BoX, but the stats that you bring don't prove that Flash is good at BoX, it just shows that he's performing at roughly the same rate as his normal win rate in BoX matches. It's possible that some players under perform in a BoX, throwing off the stats slightly, but those are likely to be the exception, not the rule. | ||
conTAgi0n
United States335 Posts
On October 19 2017 13:39 EsportsJohn wrote: What world am I living in? Of course past statistics are useful for predicting the outcome of a match next week. People can and do successfully predict matches all the time. What is going on with you guys? It's like the laws of physics have suddenly changed on TL. Of course statistics are useful, but they are also frightfully easy to misuse. I'm sure you've heard the adage, "there are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics". You don't have to doubt the very concept of statistics to question the suitability of a simple 6 month WL ratio to serve as an estimate for outcomes of the upcoming matches. It's possible that a more fine-grained statistical analysis would be necessary for an acceptable level of reliability. On October 19 2017 14:04 Eywa- wrote: Well, statistically speaking, your BoX winrate should always be further from the 50% line than your actual win rate, the phenomenon you're describing can be easily calculated as seen below... With a 67% win rate, you should win 78% of Bo5 series (I would argue that 7 is a low sample size, therefore 8% is still an acceptable margin for error). WWL 1-0 67% WWL 2-0 45% 1-1 44% 0-2 11% WWL 3-0 30% 2-1 44% 1-2 22% 0-3 4% WWL 3-1 29% 2-2 29% 1-3 7% WWL 3-2 19% 2-3 10% Win ~78% Loss ~21% I'm not saying that there is no such thing as someone who is good at BoX, but the stats that you bring don't prove that Flash is good at BoX, it just shows that he's performing at roughly the same rate as his normal win rate in BoX matches. It's possible that some players under perform in a BoX, throwing off the stats slightly, but those are likely to be the exception, not the rule. Damn you're fast. Yeah, I realized I explained my point poorly, and after I did the math I realized that I also picked a bad example, so I updated my post accordingly. Looks like I wasn't fast enough though. The point I was trying to make was that outcomes of individual matches in a BoX are not necessarily independent, and so they can't necessarily be calculated as Bernoulli trials, as you have done here (since independence of outcomes of individual trials is a fundamental assumption for Bernoulli trials). | ||
Ej_
47656 Posts
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darktreb
United States3014 Posts
On October 18 2017 11:37 L_Master wrote: Yep. I think in all honesty Bisu might have the best chance against Flash of anyone in this tournament. Certainly his chances are at a minimum at least as good as SK/EffOrt/Larva would have had. Of course Bisu has the best chance against Flash of anyone left. I don't think it's even close. An elite Protoss will always have a better chance than Zerg or Terran players against Flash. It's like Shuttle once said, any good Protoss has a puncher's chance against Flash on any given day. And Bisu, while deservingly maligned for underperforming at times in individual leagues, is by far the best and most experienced player outside of Flash remaining. Bisu "seems" to struggle against Flash, but that's largely relative to the general expectation that the best Protoss shouldn't struggle against Terran, and relative to the high expectations people have for Bisu, one of the most accomplished and talented players of all time. So his chances against Flash become underrated. Whereas with like Soulkey or Larva, since it's ZvT not PvT, and since they aren't held to as high of expectations, they become slightly overrated when it comes to chances vs Flash due to having had some memorable performances against him in the past. Put another way, I would bet anything that if you forced him to be 100% honest, Flash would say he's more worried about facing Bisu than all the other remaining players put together. | ||
ajmbek
Italy459 Posts
On October 19 2017 18:51 Ej_ wrote: Probability is a lie, you can't prove that I won't flip heads next 10000 tosses! But I can what is the % that your coin is giving a fake result based on the results of thous 10.000 flips. | ||
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