• Log InLog In
  • Register
Liquid`
Team Liquid Liquipedia
EDT 11:48
CEST 17:48
KST 00:48
  • Home
  • Forum
  • Calendar
  • Streams
  • Liquipedia
  • Features
  • Store
  • EPT
  • TL+
  • StarCraft 2
  • Brood War
  • Smash
  • Heroes
  • Counter-Strike
  • Overwatch
  • Liquibet
  • Fantasy StarCraft
  • TLPD
  • StarCraft 2
  • Brood War
  • Blogs
Forum Sidebar
Events/Features
News
Featured News
Serral wins EWC 202543Tournament Spotlight: FEL Cracow 202510Power Rank - Esports World Cup 202580RSL Season 1 - Final Week9[ASL19] Finals Recap: Standing Tall15
Community News
Weekly Cups (Jul 28-Aug 3): herO doubles up6LiuLi Cup - August 2025 Tournaments3[BSL 2025] H2 - Team Wars, Weeklies & SB Ladder10EWC 2025 - Replay Pack4Google Play ASL (Season 20) Announced58
StarCraft 2
General
Weekly Cups (Jul 28-Aug 3): herO doubles up Clem Interview: "PvT is a bit insane right now" Serral wins EWC 2025 TL Team Map Contest #5: Presented by Monster Energy Would you prefer the game to be balanced around top-tier pro level or average pro level?
Tourneys
Global Tourney for College Students in September Sparkling Tuna Cup - Weekly Open Tournament WardiTV Mondays $5,000 WardiTV Summer Championship 2025 LiuLi Cup - August 2025 Tournaments
Strategy
Custom Maps
External Content
Mutation # 485 Death from Below Mutation # 484 Magnetic Pull Mutation #239 Bad Weather Mutation # 483 Kill Bot Wars
Brood War
General
BW General Discussion Help, I can't log into staredit.net How do the new Battle.net ranks translate? Which top zerg/toss will fail in qualifiers? Google Play ASL (Season 20) Announced
Tourneys
[CSLPRO] It's CSLAN Season! - Last Chance [Megathread] Daily Proleagues [ASL20] Online Qualifiers Day 2 Cosmonarchy Pro Showmatches
Strategy
Simple Questions, Simple Answers [G] Mineral Boosting Muta micro map competition Does 1 second matter in StarCraft?
Other Games
General Games
Stormgate/Frost Giant Megathread Nintendo Switch Thread Total Annihilation Server - TAForever Beyond All Reason [MMORPG] Tree of Savior (Successor of Ragnarok)
Dota 2
Official 'what is Dota anymore' discussion
League of Legends
Heroes of the Storm
Simple Questions, Simple Answers Heroes of the Storm 2.0
Hearthstone
Heroes of StarCraft mini-set
TL Mafia
TL Mafia Community Thread Vanilla Mini Mafia
Community
General
US Politics Mega-thread European Politico-economics QA Mega-thread Things Aren’t Peaceful in Palestine Bitcoin discussion thread 9/11 Anniversary
Fan Clubs
INnoVation Fan Club SKT1 Classic Fan Club!
Media & Entertainment
Movie Discussion! [Manga] One Piece Anime Discussion Thread [\m/] Heavy Metal Thread Korean Music Discussion
Sports
2024 - 2025 Football Thread Formula 1 Discussion TeamLiquid Health and Fitness Initiative For 2023
World Cup 2022
Tech Support
Gtx660 graphics card replacement Installation of Windows 10 suck at "just a moment" Computer Build, Upgrade & Buying Resource Thread
TL Community
TeamLiquid Team Shirt On Sale The Automated Ban List
Blogs
[Girl blog} My fema…
artosisisthebest
Sharpening the Filtration…
frozenclaw
ASL S20 English Commentary…
namkraft
The Link Between Fitness and…
TrAiDoS
momentary artworks from des…
tankgirl
from making sc maps to makin…
Husyelt
Customize Sidebar...

Website Feedback

Closed Threads



Active: 790 users

[ASL4] Ro8 Soulkey vs hero

Forum Index > Brood War Tournaments
Post a Reply
Normal
BLinD-RawR
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
ALLEYCAT BLUES50121 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-10-17 10:22:37
October 17 2017 09:05 GMT
#1

Afreeca Starleague Season 4


Tuesday, Oct 17 10:00am GMT (GMT+00:00)


(Wiki)Afreeca Starleague Season 4


Casters & Hosts


Tasteless | Artosis
EsportsJohn | FlashFTW


Streams


Korean Afreeca Stream
ENG Afreeca Stream
(Tastosis)

ENG2 Afreeca Stream
(EsportsJohn and FlashFTW)


Matchups and Maps



[image loading]      [image loading]
(Z)Soulkey              (Z)by.hero






Results


+ Show Spoiler [Full results] +

(Z)Soulkey<Gladiator>(Z)by.hero
(Z)Soulkey<Fighting Spirit>(Z)by.hero
(Z)Soulkey<Crossing Field>(Z)by.hero
(Z)Soulkey<Gold Rush>(Z)by.hero
(Z)Soulkey<Gladiator>(Z)by.hero



Recommended Games


+ Show Spoiler [Game 1] +
Poll: Recommend Game 1?

Yes (7)
 
39%

No (10)
 
56%

If you have time (1)
 
6%

18 total votes

Your vote: Recommend Game 1?

(Vote): Yes
(Vote): No
(Vote): If you have time


+ Show Spoiler [Game 2] +
Poll: Recommend Game 2?

Yes (15)
 
63%

No (1)
 
4%

If you have time (8)
 
33%

24 total votes

Your vote: Recommend Game 2?

(Vote): Yes
(Vote): No
(Vote): If you have time


+ Show Spoiler [Game 3] +
Poll: Recommend Game 3?

Yes (4)
 
29%

No (9)
 
64%

If you have time (1)
 
7%

14 total votes

Your vote: Recommend Game 3?

(Vote): Yes
(Vote): No
(Vote): If you have time


+ Show Spoiler [Game 4] +
Poll: Recommend Game 4?

Yes (54)
 
98%

No (0)
 
0%

If you have time (1)
 
2%

55 total votes

Your vote: Recommend Game 4?

(Vote): Yes
(Vote): No
(Vote): If you have time


+ Show Spoiler [Game 5] +
Poll: Recommend Game 5?

Yes (8)
 
44%

No (4)
 
22%

If you have time (6)
 
33%

18 total votes

Your vote: Recommend Game 5?

(Vote): Yes
(Vote): No
(Vote): If you have time





CSS: FO-nTTaX
Banner: v1

Brood War EICWoo Jung Ho, never forget.| Twitter: @BLinDRawR
TL+ Member
BLinD-RawR
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
ALLEYCAT BLUES50121 Posts
October 17 2017 09:06 GMT
#2
I'm at work so I need someone else to update the thread and post polls
Brood War EICWoo Jung Ho, never forget.| Twitter: @BLinDRawR
TL+ Member
EsportsJohn
Profile Blog Joined June 2012
United States4883 Posts
October 17 2017 09:27 GMT
#3
On October 17 2017 18:06 BLinD-RawR wrote:
I'm at work so I need someone else to update the thread and post polls


I'll do my best to update it in between games.
StrategyAllyssa Grey <3<3
soldier8
Profile Joined December 2011
Russian Federation60 Posts
October 17 2017 10:02 GMT
#4
soulkey wins today for sure
[sc1f]eonzerg
Profile Blog Joined February 2010
Belgium6592 Posts
October 17 2017 10:03 GMT
#5
hero 3-1
sM.Zik
Profile Joined June 2011
Canada2547 Posts
October 17 2017 10:08 GMT
#6
Hoping for Soulkey, but anything can happen in ZvZs!
Jaedong Fighting! | youtube.com/ZikGaming
yOngKIN
Profile Joined May 2012
Korea (North)656 Posts
October 17 2017 10:15 GMT
#7
Is ZvZ still coinflip?
sM.Zik
Profile Joined June 2011
Canada2547 Posts
October 17 2017 10:19 GMT
#8
herO ling
Jaedong Fighting! | youtube.com/ZikGaming
r.Evo
Profile Joined August 2006
Germany14080 Posts
October 17 2017 10:19 GMT
#9
Damn, that was smooth.
"We don't make mistakes here, we call it happy little accidents." ~Bob Ross
tanngard
Profile Joined April 2011
Norway1325 Posts
October 17 2017 10:19 GMT
#10
NOT LIKE THIS
BigFan
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
TLADT24920 Posts
October 17 2017 10:19 GMT
#11
tune in only to see Soulkey lose haha.
Former BW EiC"Watch Bakemonogatari or I will kill you." -Toad, April 18th, 2017
Murchaldo
Profile Joined August 2017
18 Posts
October 17 2017 10:20 GMT
#12
1 Ling sneaks into a base and kills 4 drones. What a rough way to lose.
Dangermousecatdog
Profile Joined December 2010
United Kingdom7084 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-10-17 10:20:46
October 17 2017 10:20 GMT
#13
That ling, 4 drone kills. What a great time to sneak in a ling.
PVJ
Profile Blog Joined July 2012
Hungary5221 Posts
October 17 2017 10:21 GMT
#14
Man, is hero going to make it to the finals only to lose against Flash 0-3?????
The heart's eternal vow
XiaoJoyce-
Profile Blog Joined December 2009
China2908 Posts
October 17 2017 10:21 GMT
#15
Oh I just come back!! So fast 1 game is over!!?
Pew! Pew! Chitty Chitty Bang Bang!
EsportsJohn
Profile Blog Joined June 2012
United States4883 Posts
October 17 2017 10:22 GMT
#16
Poll: Recommend Game 1?

Yes (7)
 
39%

No (10)
 
56%

If you have time (1)
 
6%

18 total votes

Your vote: Recommend Game 1?

(Vote): Yes
(Vote): No
(Vote): If you have time

StrategyAllyssa Grey <3<3
PVJ
Profile Blog Joined July 2012
Hungary5221 Posts
October 17 2017 10:22 GMT
#17
On October 17 2017 19:15 yOngKIN wrote:
Is ZvZ still coinflip?

Not at all, I'd say.

Check out the all Z Ro16 group from a few weeks back, it was quite entertaining and displayed good strats instead of flips.
The heart's eternal vow
BigFan
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
TLADT24920 Posts
October 17 2017 10:24 GMT
#18
Come on Soulkey, please! hero might be a boss in his own way but this is not the way for you to go out!
Former BW EiC"Watch Bakemonogatari or I will kill you." -Toad, April 18th, 2017
PVJ
Profile Blog Joined July 2012
Hungary5221 Posts
October 17 2017 10:24 GMT
#19
Wait, if Shine is streaming this from home does that mean that someone else is observing????????
The heart's eternal vow
PVJ
Profile Blog Joined July 2012
Hungary5221 Posts
October 17 2017 10:26 GMT
#20
I'm gonna run out of my question mark ratios by the end of this thread.
The heart's eternal vow
GTR
Profile Blog Joined September 2004
51453 Posts
October 17 2017 10:27 GMT
#21
On October 17 2017 19:24 PVJ wrote:
Wait, if Shine is streaming this from home does that mean that someone else is observing????????


probably (T)910
Commentator
[sc1f]eonzerg
Profile Blog Joined February 2010
Belgium6592 Posts
October 17 2017 10:27 GMT
#22
this is a 2-0 already
PVJ
Profile Blog Joined July 2012
Hungary5221 Posts
October 17 2017 10:28 GMT
#23
this brown color has to be banned
The heart's eternal vow
[sc1f]eonzerg
Profile Blog Joined February 2010
Belgium6592 Posts
October 17 2017 10:29 GMT
#24
maybe no :D
PVJ
Profile Blog Joined July 2012
Hungary5221 Posts
October 17 2017 10:30 GMT
#25
On October 17 2017 19:27 GTR wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 17 2017 19:24 PVJ wrote:
Wait, if Shine is streaming this from home does that mean that someone else is observing????????


probably (T)910

We should've had a zerg TT__TT
The heart's eternal vow
BigFan
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
TLADT24920 Posts
October 17 2017 10:31 GMT
#26
pretty cool zerglings from SK
Former BW EiC"Watch Bakemonogatari or I will kill you." -Toad, April 18th, 2017
BigFan
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
TLADT24920 Posts
October 17 2017 10:36 GMT
#27
wp by SK, great game.
Former BW EiC"Watch Bakemonogatari or I will kill you." -Toad, April 18th, 2017
Dangermousecatdog
Profile Joined December 2010
United Kingdom7084 Posts
October 17 2017 10:36 GMT
#28
Really nice scourge and muta micro from Soulkey.
EsportsJohn
Profile Blog Joined June 2012
United States4883 Posts
October 17 2017 10:37 GMT
#29
Poll: Recommend Game 2?

Yes (15)
 
63%

No (1)
 
4%

If you have time (8)
 
33%

24 total votes

Your vote: Recommend Game 2?

(Vote): Yes
(Vote): No
(Vote): If you have time

StrategyAllyssa Grey <3<3
NeoFlash
Profile Joined October 2016
21 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-10-17 10:40:38
October 17 2017 10:38 GMT
#30
These two are putting a great fight high level ZvZ is great sometimes
pinkbowtie1
Profile Joined September 2017
23 Posts
October 17 2017 10:44 GMT
#31
Whyd soulkey not take back expo?
yOngKIN
Profile Joined May 2012
Korea (North)656 Posts
October 17 2017 10:47 GMT
#32
Lol what if herO eliminates Soulkey
nwDanon
Profile Joined May 2017
12 Posts
October 17 2017 10:48 GMT
#33
WTF was that natural hatch first in ZvZ ?
NeoFlash
Profile Joined October 2016
21 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-10-17 10:49:09
October 17 2017 10:48 GMT
#34
That path by hero's zerlings avoiding SK overlords was sickkkkkk
ortseam
Profile Joined April 2015
996 Posts
October 17 2017 10:48 GMT
#35
Hard one for Soulkey
Keniji
Profile Blog Joined April 2008
Netherlands2569 Posts
October 17 2017 10:49 GMT
#36
On October 17 2017 19:48 nwDanon wrote:
WTF was that natural hatch first in ZvZ ?


yea 12 hatch. Not really WTF, completely normal build.
BigFan
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
TLADT24920 Posts
October 17 2017 10:49 GMT
#37
On October 17 2017 19:49 Keniji wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 17 2017 19:48 nwDanon wrote:
WTF was that natural hatch first in ZvZ ?


yea 12 hatch. Not really WTF, completely normal build.

yep. SK should be more diligent with his scouting imo.
Former BW EiC"Watch Bakemonogatari or I will kill you." -Toad, April 18th, 2017
nwDanon
Profile Joined May 2017
12 Posts
October 17 2017 10:50 GMT
#38
On October 17 2017 19:49 Keniji wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 17 2017 19:48 nwDanon wrote:
WTF was that natural hatch first in ZvZ ?


yea 12 hatch. Not really WTF, completely normal build.

on 2 player map vs Z? Okay
EsportsJohn
Profile Blog Joined June 2012
United States4883 Posts
October 17 2017 10:51 GMT
#39
Poll: Recommend Game 3?

Yes (4)
 
29%

No (9)
 
64%

If you have time (1)
 
7%

14 total votes

Your vote: Recommend Game 3?

(Vote): Yes
(Vote): No
(Vote): If you have time

StrategyAllyssa Grey <3<3
Murchaldo
Profile Joined August 2017
18 Posts
October 17 2017 10:52 GMT
#40
On October 17 2017 19:48 nwDanon wrote:
WTF was that natural hatch first in ZvZ ?


12 Hatch is very normal. It's a pretty stable build a lot of the time. It leaves you advantaged against Overpool and 12 Pool, and there ARE options against 9-pool speed. I have seen many games where the 12 hatch player sees the lings coming, cancels the hatch, builds a sunken + macro hatch in their base, and then wins the game off increased larva production.

I think the plan here was "I'll go 12 Hatch, and it's a 2-player map, so I'll be able to scout and cancel if he does a 9 pool (or earlier), but herO's ling pathing was unreal, and by the time Soulkey realized what he was up, his hatchery was already finished.
EsportsJohn
Profile Blog Joined June 2012
United States4883 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-10-17 10:53:11
October 17 2017 10:52 GMT
#41
On October 17 2017 19:50 nwDanon wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 17 2017 19:49 Keniji wrote:
On October 17 2017 19:48 nwDanon wrote:
WTF was that natural hatch first in ZvZ ?


yea 12 hatch. Not really WTF, completely normal build.

on 2 player map vs Z? Okay


It's not uncommon on Crossing Field where rush distances are so long. Soulkey messed up his drone micro pretty badly, but hero also prepared really well for the map.

On October 17 2017 19:44 pinkbowtie1 wrote:
Whyd soulkey not take back expo?


Also, this lol.
StrategyAllyssa Grey <3<3
BigFan
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
TLADT24920 Posts
October 17 2017 10:53 GMT
#42
On October 17 2017 19:52 Murchaldo wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 17 2017 19:48 nwDanon wrote:
WTF was that natural hatch first in ZvZ ?


12 Hatch is very normal. It's a pretty stable build a lot of the time. It leaves you advantaged against Overpool and 12 Pool, and there ARE options against 9-pool speed. I have seen many games where the 12 hatch player sees the lings coming, cancels the hatch, builds a sunken + macro hatch in their base, and then wins the game off increased larva production.

I think the plan here was "I'll go 12 Hatch, and it's a 2-player map, so I'll be able to scout and cancel if he does a 9 pool (or earlier), but herO's ling pathing was unreal, and by the time Soulkey realized what he was up, his hatchery was already finished.

probably gonna be the new meta. Hide lings after 9 pooling your opponent and attack before they can cancel
Former BW EiC"Watch Bakemonogatari or I will kill you." -Toad, April 18th, 2017
soldier8
Profile Joined December 2011
Russian Federation60 Posts
October 17 2017 10:53 GMT
#43
On October 17 2017 19:21 PVJ wrote:
Man, is hero going to make it to the finals only to lose against Flash 0-3?????

yeaaahh ))) that's true bro
go soulkey!!!
chuDr3t4
Profile Joined April 2010
Russian Federation484 Posts
October 17 2017 10:55 GMT
#44
On October 17 2017 19:21 PVJ wrote:
Man, is hero going to make it to the finals only to lose against Flash 0-3?????

Relax, hero will win finals 3-0 against Killer.
I live in Russia. I wear the fufaika, valenoks and the shapka-ushanka with the red star. I drink vodka straight from the samovar, and my riding bear plays on the balalaika.
soldier8
Profile Joined December 2011
Russian Federation60 Posts
October 17 2017 10:56 GMT
#45
is soulkey playing like jaedong?.....
taking too much risks
GTR
Profile Blog Joined September 2004
51453 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-10-17 10:59:21
October 17 2017 10:58 GMT
#46


How ya like my groove, Daggoth?
WELL DONE.
Commentator
nwDanon
Profile Joined May 2017
12 Posts
October 17 2017 10:59 GMT
#47
Thanks for the answers guys. I agree, but it seems not right to go for 12 hatch on the map where lings can chose paths like that and you basicly have no chance vs 9 pool speed because of this.
I hope SK will advance coz Hero has no chance in the finals imo.
BigFan
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
TLADT24920 Posts
October 17 2017 10:59 GMT
#48
come on SK, I believe!
Former BW EiC"Watch Bakemonogatari or I will kill you." -Toad, April 18th, 2017
ortseam
Profile Joined April 2015
996 Posts
October 17 2017 10:59 GMT
#49
lol another 9p vs 12 hatch
r.Evo
Profile Joined August 2006
Germany14080 Posts
October 17 2017 10:59 GMT
#50
11h 10p for SK this time.
"We don't make mistakes here, we call it happy little accidents." ~Bob Ross
PVJ
Profile Blog Joined July 2012
Hungary5221 Posts
October 17 2017 11:00 GMT
#51
Soulkey wants to make it work.
The heart's eternal vow
yOngKIN
Profile Joined May 2012
Korea (North)656 Posts
October 17 2017 11:00 GMT
#52
No no no
ortseam
Profile Joined April 2015
996 Posts
October 17 2017 11:02 GMT
#53
Think Soulkey saw the hatch
PVJ
Profile Blog Joined July 2012
Hungary5221 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-10-17 11:04:01
October 17 2017 11:03 GMT
#54
Soulkey didn't see the hatch I think.
The heart's eternal vow
Murchaldo
Profile Joined August 2017
18 Posts
October 17 2017 11:08 GMT
#55
I think Soulkey has enough Mutas to win this, but hero can keep sacrificing lings for Drones. This game is so bizarre.
Pandemona *
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Charlie Sheens House51485 Posts
October 17 2017 11:08 GMT
#56
Lol tune into this game of the series and just thinking jesus what a stressful situation Soulkey is playing under this game haha.
ModeratorTeam Liquid Football Thread Guru! - Chelsea FC ♥
PVJ
Profile Blog Joined July 2012
Hungary5221 Posts
October 17 2017 11:09 GMT
#57
This was actually really sick.
The heart's eternal vow
BigFan
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
TLADT24920 Posts
October 17 2017 11:09 GMT
#58
amazing, wp SK!
Former BW EiC"Watch Bakemonogatari or I will kill you." -Toad, April 18th, 2017
superjoppe
Profile Joined December 2004
Sweden3683 Posts
October 17 2017 11:09 GMT
#59
Really intense game 4!
Dangermousecatdog
Profile Joined December 2010
United Kingdom7084 Posts
October 17 2017 11:10 GMT
#60
Oh my god, what an intense game.
chrisolo
Profile Joined May 2009
Germany2606 Posts
October 17 2017 11:10 GMT
#61
wow game 4 was intense. GOGOGO SK
¯\_(ツ)_/¯ - aka cReAtiVee
pinkbowtie1
Profile Joined September 2017
23 Posts
October 17 2017 11:10 GMT
#62
how on earth....

looks like 12H>9p new meta guys /s
Vuk_91
Profile Joined September 2010
Serbia1690 Posts
October 17 2017 11:10 GMT
#63
I know that this was a ZvZ, but for me this is the best game of a tournament thus far. Amazing.
hasuprotoss
Profile Blog Joined March 2004
United States4612 Posts
October 17 2017 11:10 GMT
#64
Game 4 was really well played by Soulkey... Holy moly!
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/index.php?viewdays=0&show_part=5 <--- Articles Section on TL
soldier8
Profile Joined December 2011
Russian Federation60 Posts
October 17 2017 11:10 GMT
#65
wow... just wow game from soulkey,,, at the start i think "same mistake... same die"
Murchaldo
Profile Joined August 2017
18 Posts
October 17 2017 11:10 GMT
#66
That was such a sick ZvZ. GREAT decision making from Soulkey, hanging on by a thread for basically the entire game. From the drones holding the 9 pool until the time GG was called, Soulkey looked like he was going to lose any second.
PVJ
Profile Blog Joined July 2012
Hungary5221 Posts
October 17 2017 11:10 GMT
#67
It was literally breathtaking
The heart's eternal vow
NeoFlash
Profile Joined October 2016
21 Posts
October 17 2017 11:10 GMT
#68
What a hold by soulkey!! game 5
iPlaY.NettleS
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
Australia4333 Posts
October 17 2017 11:11 GMT
#69
Man that game 4 was a classic
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e7PvoI6gvQs
EsportsJohn
Profile Blog Joined June 2012
United States4883 Posts
October 17 2017 11:11 GMT
#70
Poll: Recommend Game 4?

Yes (54)
 
98%

No (0)
 
0%

If you have time (1)
 
2%

55 total votes

Your vote: Recommend Game 4?

(Vote): Yes
(Vote): No
(Vote): If you have time

StrategyAllyssa Grey <3<3
soldier8
Profile Joined December 2011
Russian Federation60 Posts
October 17 2017 11:11 GMT
#71
On October 17 2017 20:10 Vuk_91 wrote:
I know that this was a ZvZ, but for me this is the best game of a tournament thus far. Amazing.

totally true..... the weight of this game, that might be the last chance to stay on the tournament
magnificent game!!!
PVJ
Profile Blog Joined July 2012
Hungary5221 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-10-17 11:11:58
October 17 2017 11:11 GMT
#72
nvm
The heart's eternal vow
Zealgoon
Profile Joined January 2013
China187 Posts
October 17 2017 11:11 GMT
#73
how the fuck did soulkey win that
PVJ
Profile Blog Joined July 2012
Hungary5221 Posts
October 17 2017 11:13 GMT
#74
this needs like a 100 yes'
The heart's eternal vow
pinkbowtie1
Profile Joined September 2017
23 Posts
October 17 2017 11:13 GMT
#75
On October 17 2017 20:11 Zealgoon wrote:
how the fuck did soulkey win that


i have no clue, honestly s-god
soldier8
Profile Joined December 2011
Russian Federation60 Posts
October 17 2017 11:13 GMT
#76
put this game to the hall of fame
EsportsJohn
Profile Blog Joined June 2012
United States4883 Posts
October 17 2017 11:14 GMT
#77
That hold by Soulkey, from beginning to end, was unearthly.
StrategyAllyssa Grey <3<3
ppp87
Profile Joined May 2016
Laos250 Posts
October 17 2017 11:14 GMT
#78
this song... so annoying
ShloobeR
Profile Blog Joined April 2008
Korea (South)3809 Posts
October 17 2017 11:15 GMT
#79
if soulkey doesnt go through now i will be sad
: o )
Mrwl
Profile Blog Joined March 2009
Sweden339 Posts
October 17 2017 11:15 GMT
#80
hero 4 pool win incoming
BW heyo
soldier8
Profile Joined December 2011
Russian Federation60 Posts
October 17 2017 11:16 GMT
#81
yeah... SK is gonna take it!
PVJ
Profile Blog Joined July 2012
Hungary5221 Posts
October 17 2017 11:17 GMT
#82
On October 17 2017 20:14 ppp87 wrote:
this song... so annoying

Yes just wanted to say this. Hearing half the song play out didn't help its case either
The heart's eternal vow
BigFan
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
TLADT24920 Posts
October 17 2017 11:17 GMT
#83
Come on SK, please!
Former BW EiC"Watch Bakemonogatari or I will kill you." -Toad, April 18th, 2017
PVJ
Profile Blog Joined July 2012
Hungary5221 Posts
October 17 2017 11:19 GMT
#84
Gladiator is such a great map.
The heart's eternal vow
ortseam
Profile Joined April 2015
996 Posts
October 17 2017 11:20 GMT
#85
Overpool? Can't remember the last time this was used
crowbar
Profile Joined August 2009
Sweden21 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-10-17 11:22:03
October 17 2017 11:21 GMT
#86
wow, Tasteless actually sounded hurt lol. Artosis is a bully.
ShloobeR
Profile Blog Joined April 2008
Korea (South)3809 Posts
October 17 2017 11:22 GMT
#87
ohh hero went back to base and cancelled lingspeed
+100 gas
: o )
PVJ
Profile Blog Joined July 2012
Hungary5221 Posts
October 17 2017 11:23 GMT
#88
Kind of wish they go late-game just so this takes some more time.
The heart's eternal vow
ortseam
Profile Joined April 2015
996 Posts
October 17 2017 11:24 GMT
#89
SK hatchery much faster
ShloobeR
Profile Blog Joined April 2008
Korea (South)3809 Posts
October 17 2017 11:25 GMT
#90
Yeh SK was a muta behind that whole time in gas
: o )
GTR
Profile Blog Joined September 2004
51453 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-10-17 11:27:12
October 17 2017 11:25 GMT
#91
welp cross fingers larva doesn't fuck up against hero
Commentator
superjoppe
Profile Joined December 2004
Sweden3683 Posts
October 17 2017 11:27 GMT
#92
Happy for hero winning. Should make it easier for Larva to go to the finals. I'm hyped for Flash vs Larva
BigFan
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
TLADT24920 Posts
October 17 2017 11:27 GMT
#93
omg where are his drones? SK no
Former BW EiC"Watch Bakemonogatari or I will kill you." -Toad, April 18th, 2017
chrisolo
Profile Joined May 2009
Germany2606 Posts
October 17 2017 11:28 GMT
#94
¯\_(ツ)_/¯ - aka cReAtiVee
Dangermousecatdog
Profile Joined December 2010
United Kingdom7084 Posts
October 17 2017 11:28 GMT
#95
I guess Soulkey couldn't recover from that wierd muta attack he did. GG
duke91
Profile Joined April 2014
Germany1458 Posts
October 17 2017 11:29 GMT
#96
Soulkey Biblethump

User was warned for this post
( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)STYLE START SBENU( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)
XiaoJoyce-
Profile Blog Joined December 2009
China2908 Posts
October 17 2017 11:29 GMT
#97
I didnt know what happen. I just see Soulkey throw all his muta and lose everything in 1 second ...
Pew! Pew! Chitty Chitty Bang Bang!
PVJ
Profile Blog Joined July 2012
Hungary5221 Posts
October 17 2017 11:29 GMT
#98
Pfffffff............ I........... am......... surprised. hero is in the Ro4. Wouldn't have bet on this when the Ro24 started.
The heart's eternal vow
orvinreyes
Profile Joined June 2007
577 Posts
October 17 2017 11:30 GMT
#99
lol all my asl ro8 liquibets have been way off the mark so far
http://youtu.be/LfmrHTdXgK4
ortseam
Profile Joined April 2015
996 Posts
October 17 2017 11:30 GMT
#100
Well hero has actually been the most consistent zerg in ASL so far
ppp87
Profile Joined May 2016
Laos250 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-10-17 11:31:07
October 17 2017 11:30 GMT
#101
attacking first while knowing hero skipped speed ? why ?
Zealgoon
Profile Joined January 2013
China187 Posts
October 17 2017 11:30 GMT
#102
Uhhhhh. If Larva loses to hero as well... I'm gonna cry
RowdierBob
Profile Blog Joined May 2003
Australia13007 Posts
October 17 2017 11:33 GMT
#103
Bugger

Nothing against Hero but would've much rather seen SK advance from this side of the bracket.
"Terrans are pretty much space-Australians" - H
M2
Profile Joined December 2002
Bulgaria4116 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-10-17 11:33:56
October 17 2017 11:33 GMT
#104
the magic of ZvZ, the only match up in broodwar based on at least 20-30% luck together with a skill set that almost does not transition into any other match up:-)) The only match up where having good or bad results does not tell almost anything about your overall broodwar skill
Knife kitty, night kitty, put you on a slab. Stealthy kitty, hunter kitty, stab stab stab :-)
Golgotha
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
Korea (South)8418 Posts
October 17 2017 11:34 GMT
#105
lmao. this makes it so easy for bisu or flash. christ...
RowdierBob
Profile Blog Joined May 2003
Australia13007 Posts
October 17 2017 11:36 GMT
#106
I wouldn't bank on Bisu taking out Killer easily. But yeah, things got a little easier for whoever makes it out of the lower bracket (likely Flash or Bisu).
"Terrans are pretty much space-Australians" - H
PVJ
Profile Blog Joined July 2012
Hungary5221 Posts
October 17 2017 11:37 GMT
#107
Larva v hero
Killer v Mind

Ro4 incoming.
The heart's eternal vow
BigFan
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
TLADT24920 Posts
October 17 2017 11:37 GMT
#108
I think you guys should give hero more credit. I too wanted SK to advance but if Bisu advances from the other side, I'm sure we'll get one hell of a nice final if hero beats Larva. He was a ZvP specialist in the past for a reason and has beaten Bisu in the last SSL 3-0. Biggest thing is that he should practice hard for it, however, based off his last statement from the interview, looks like he practiced a ton of ZvZ so I wouldn't be surprised to see him practice a ton of ZvP.

Now, if Flash makes the finals, well, I don't think hero would be strong enough to win. Maybe take a game and at least put up some fight? He's certainly a great multitasker and makes great decisions (that canceled gas in game 5 for ex or that inbase hatch in game 4). His mutalisk micro is also up there imo from the bits I saw so as long as he dedicates himself to practice hard for the finals, I think they'll be a great watch.
Former BW EiC"Watch Bakemonogatari or I will kill you." -Toad, April 18th, 2017
fLyiNgDroNe
Profile Joined September 2005
Belgium4009 Posts
October 17 2017 11:39 GMT
#109
yeah that's what i hate the most in zvz. Its so different from other matchups, that you end up with either brilliant zergs having an average record in it, or with average zergs being extremely good zvz specialists. That fucks up the zergs overall results quite badly.
I think large part of the reason of JD's success was his being equally strong in mirrors and non-mirrors.
Sad. I wanted Soulkey to keep rolling. If hero knocks out both SK and Larva, we all are going to enjoy 3-0 finals.
Drone is a way of living
EsportsJohn
Profile Blog Joined June 2012
United States4883 Posts
October 17 2017 11:40 GMT
#110
Poll: Recommend Game 5?

Yes (8)
 
44%

No (4)
 
22%

If you have time (6)
 
33%

18 total votes

Your vote: Recommend Game 5?

(Vote): Yes
(Vote): No
(Vote): If you have time

StrategyAllyssa Grey <3<3
chuDr3t4
Profile Joined April 2010
Russian Federation484 Posts
October 17 2017 11:45 GMT
#111
On October 17 2017 20:33 M2 wrote:
the magic of ZvZ, the only match up in broodwar based on at least 20-30% luck together with a skill set that almost does not transition into any other match up:-)) The only match up where having good or bad results does not tell almost anything about your overall broodwar skill

This is so annoying to read, if ANY of that was true how could JD be able to have 81% ZvZ WR and push the Elo record at the peak of BW(2009)? Like seriously, if you don't understand the match up it doesn't mean it is luck based.
I live in Russia. I wear the fufaika, valenoks and the shapka-ushanka with the red star. I drink vodka straight from the samovar, and my riding bear plays on the balalaika.
Zealgoon
Profile Joined January 2013
China187 Posts
October 17 2017 11:45 GMT
#112
Yeah, well I suppose hero vs Bisu would be a decent finals, but I'm not terribly optimistic about Bisu's chance to make it past Flash and I'm not even going to watch hero v Flash in a Bo5.
EsportsJohn
Profile Blog Joined June 2012
United States4883 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-10-17 11:58:30
October 17 2017 11:46 GMT
#113
On October 17 2017 20:29 PVJ wrote:
Pfffffff............ I........... am......... surprised. hero is in the Ro4. Wouldn't have bet on this when the Ro24 started.


He's actually overall been pretty good. I think we just underestimate him because he's not technically at the same level as Larva, effOrt, Soulkey, and Jaedong. His preparation today was unreal, from the 9overpool build on Gladiator to the brilliant 9pool pathing on Crossing Field. In the games that he won, he was playing from an obvious standpoint of preparation.

Tbh, Soulkey couldn't do anything in G1 or G5. Hero's build was just straight up better in every respect, and I think that was reflected in Soulkey's attempts to all-in over and over. The onus was on him to do some damage and get ahead, but every time he tried, hero just had more stuff.

EDIT: It's possible that the build hero used on Gladiator is the primary reason he won. Not trying to devalue his play or anything, but being well ahead of your opponent in an otherwise "even" game in 2 games is a huge advantage. It's theoretically possible that hero gets rekt if he goes for something more "standard" in Games 1 and 5.

On October 17 2017 20:30 ortseam wrote:
Well hero has actually been the most consistent zerg in ASL so far


This. I didn't think hero was all that good, but when I looked back at his ASL record, he's been in the Ro8 3 times out of 4. I think it's a case of not living up to his "potential" that we touted back in the SSL era of Brood War.
StrategyAllyssa Grey <3<3
BigFan
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
TLADT24920 Posts
October 17 2017 11:57 GMT
#114
On October 17 2017 20:46 EsportsJohn wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 17 2017 20:29 PVJ wrote:
Pfffffff............ I........... am......... surprised. hero is in the Ro4. Wouldn't have bet on this when the Ro24 started.


He's actually overall been pretty good. I think we just underestimate him because he's not technically at the same level as Larva, effOrt, Soulkey, and Jaedong. His preparation today was unreal, from the 9overpool build on Gladiator to the brilliant 9pool pathing on Crossing Field. In the games that he won, he was playing from an obvious standpoint of preparation.

Tbh, Soulkey couldn't do anything in G1 or G5. Hero's build was just straight up better in every respect, and I think that was reflected in Soulkey's attempts to all-in over and over. The onus was on him to do some damage and get ahead, but every time he tried, hero just had more stuff.

Show nested quote +
On October 17 2017 20:30 ortseam wrote:
Well hero has actually been the most consistent zerg in ASL so far


This. I didn't think hero was all that good, but when I looked back at his ASL record, he's been in the Ro8 3 times out of 4. I think it's a case of not living up to his "potential" that we touted back in the SSL era of Brood War.

hero actually lived up to his potential in SSL. He lost to Bisu in a close series in SSL9 after Bisu did a 2 gate opener on sniper ridge then got revenge in the last SSL by destroying Bisu. It was unreal. Bisu looked like a completely scrub losing his hts to hold lurkers and his army to mass hydras without doing a thing haha. Bisu partially saved face in VANT against EffOrt but he also lost 3-1 there XD

Agree overall though, I think hero is being underestimated but he has been somewhat consistent and placing high enough in ASL so it's not that surprising. Still, I'd rather have seen him win a close ZvP match to at least show that his skills overall haven't declined compared to the continuous flood of ZvZ since the Ro16.
Former BW EiC"Watch Bakemonogatari or I will kill you." -Toad, April 18th, 2017
mishimaBeef
Profile Blog Joined January 2010
Canada2259 Posts
October 17 2017 12:12 GMT
#115
Confirmed 1 widescreen view user in semi finals?
Dare to live the life you have dreamed for yourself. Go forward and make your dreams come true. - Ralph Waldo Emerson
Uldridge
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
Belgium4778 Posts
October 17 2017 12:28 GMT
#116
For me, hero played the early game way better, with bo advantage in every single game. He simply lost because his mechanic/decisions were inferior post the bo stage.
He was consistently able to pump out more lings/mutas with sometimes less initial resources and played smarter.
SK simply managed to take wins by having the presence of mind during the chaos.
Taxes are for Terrans
Golgotha
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
Korea (South)8418 Posts
October 17 2017 12:59 GMT
#117
You guys are right, we should give hero credit. But sk had a better chance against flash... And we need all the help to beat god
Burned Toast *
Profile Blog Joined May 2007
Canada2040 Posts
October 17 2017 13:22 GMT
#118
Vods of today's games available in the Small Vod Thread.
TvT matchup is sometimes worse than jailtime
yOngKIN
Profile Joined May 2012
Korea (North)656 Posts
October 17 2017 14:30 GMT
#119
What if we get a herO vs.Flash finals and herO defeats Flash to win the championship
outscar
Profile Joined September 2014
2832 Posts
October 17 2017 14:41 GMT
#120
GJ by herO. He is way underrated while SK is way overhyped. Heros ZvP and ZvZ is all good, it was godlike during Sonic era, he just needs to learn survive vs. late mech vs. T.
sunbeams are never made like me...
EsportsJohn
Profile Blog Joined June 2012
United States4883 Posts
October 17 2017 14:42 GMT
#121
On October 17 2017 23:30 yOngKIN wrote:
What if we get a herO vs.Flash finals and herO defeats Flash to win the championship


We won't.
StrategyAllyssa Grey <3<3
blade55555
Profile Blog Joined March 2009
United States17423 Posts
October 17 2017 14:47 GMT
#122
Damn, no offense to Hero but he doesn't stand a chance if he makes it to the finals unless Killer somehow took out Bisu and Flash. Hope Larva beats him in the semi's or we know whoever wins the semi finals wins the tournament.
When I think of something else, something will go here
_Animus_
Profile Joined February 2011
Bulgaria1064 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-10-17 15:10:56
October 17 2017 14:54 GMT
#123
The best zerg just suicided himself, Flash must be really happy because he just became the new champion.
Whats wrong with these youngsters really? Rain and Soulkey having such good play turn into suicide fest. Since when having an eco advantage means u have to desperately do damage to opponent who is getting more and more behind just as the timer is ticking anyway? He got way faster natural and gas in game five, he scouted with ling and knew perfectly that hero have the muta advantage and he just throw his place in the semis with easy hand.
Now we have same old guys in the semi finals. If Finals are Hero vs Flash it will be one ugly stomp for Hero. I didnt see Hero being better than soulkey today, he had no better control and notable lack of multitasking compared to soulkey. Soulkey just throw just as Rain throw everything. After my big hope for dethroning flash is gone, dont think there is anything interesting to see after Bisu is out because Flash will toyplay with both Hero/Larva.
Luv ya BroodWar!
TaardadAiel
Profile Joined May 2017
Bulgaria750 Posts
October 17 2017 15:10 GMT
#124
On October 17 2017 23:54 _Animus_ wrote:
The best zerg just suicided himself.
Gratz Flash is the new champion.
Whats wrong with these youngsters really? Rain and Soulkey having such good play turn into suicide fest. Since when having an eco advantage means u have to desperately do damage to opponent who is getting more and more behind just as the timer is ticking anyway? He got way faster natural and gas in game five, he scouted with ling and knew perfectly that hero have the muta advantage and he just throw his place in the semis with easy hand.
Now we have the boring stuff, same old guys in the semi finals. If Finals are Hero vs Flash it will be one ugly stomp for Hero. I didnt see Hero being better than soulkey today, he had no better control and notable lack of multitasking compared to soulkey. Soulkey just throw just as Rain throw everything. After my big hope for dethroning flash is gone, dont think there is anything interesting to see after Bisu is out because Flash will toyplay with both Hero/Larva.


Is larva one of those same old guys? I don't think you can safely say hero's going to beat him too.

And when is Bisu going to be out?
WriterReV hwaiting!
soldier8
Profile Joined December 2011
Russian Federation60 Posts
October 17 2017 16:02 GMT
#125
On October 17 2017 23:30 yOngKIN wrote:
What if we get a herO vs.Flash finals and herO defeats Flash to win the championship

noooo way.. i hope he could win, but not now
Dazed.
Profile Blog Joined March 2008
Canada3301 Posts
October 17 2017 16:21 GMT
#126
Never bought into soulkey. Played cheesy last season, his record on afreeca is good but only against weak players. Neither of them looked like they are in form to take down larva. Should be a pretty one sided semi final.
Never say Die! ||| Fight you? No, I want to kill you.
tanngard
Profile Joined April 2011
Norway1325 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-10-17 16:42:44
October 17 2017 16:42 GMT
#127
On October 18 2017 01:21 Dazed. wrote:
Never bought into soulkey. Played cheesy last season, his record on afreeca is good but only against weak players. Neither of them looked like they are in form to take down larva. Should be a pretty one sided semi final.

Soulkey online matches since 1.8

vs Last 10:7
vs Mind 10:7
vs Flash 16:21
vs sSak 10:7
vs Light 6:4

vs Mini 13:1
vs Shuttle 8:5
vs Best 12: 9
vs Bisu 4:4
vs Snow 7:3
vs Rain 2:1
vs Sky 5:0

So where did you get the idea that he has only good record vs weak players?

http://sponbbang.com/profile/?month1=2017-08&month2=2017-10&map_id=0&bj_id=17
ne4aJIb
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
Russian Federation3209 Posts
October 17 2017 16:55 GMT
#128
Soulkey T_t
Bisu,Best,Stork,Jangbi and Flash, Fantasy, Leta, Light and Jaedong, Hydra, Zero, Soulkey assemble in ACE now!
LucasWoJ
Profile Blog Joined May 2007
United States936 Posts
October 17 2017 17:13 GMT
#129
I'm surprised SK didn't get 3-0d honestly. He's looked TERRIBLE zvz on stream lately. I had a strong feeling he would lose today. Ultimately, I don't think it changes who Flash/Bisu will meet in the finals, and even if it does, Hero is a lot stronger than people on here seem to think, and SK isn't nearly as good imo
"Of all the words of mice and men, the saddest are it could have been." - Kurt Vonnegut
TaardadAiel
Profile Joined May 2017
Bulgaria750 Posts
October 17 2017 17:13 GMT
#130
On October 18 2017 01:21 Dazed. wrote:
Never bought into soulkey. Played cheesy last season, his record on afreeca is good but only against weak players. Neither of them looked like they are in form to take down larva. Should be a pretty one sided semi final.


Are we talking about the same player? He's scary as hell in non-mirrors and ZvZ is way too intense for me to comprehend, but I don't think he's bad at it, either.

And how is it exactly that he played cheesy last season? Ok, he pulled a 4pool in a bo5 vs FlaSh. This is more of a virtue than anything, though, the seemingly uncheesable flash. And he took him to five games, and the fifth one was a nailbiter. Top3 zerg atm, if you ask me.
WriterReV hwaiting!
batsnacks
Profile Blog Joined April 2014
United States4466 Posts
October 17 2017 17:20 GMT
#131
On October 18 2017 00:10 TaardadAiel wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 17 2017 23:54 _Animus_ wrote:
The best zerg just suicided himself.
Gratz Flash is the new champion.
Whats wrong with these youngsters really? Rain and Soulkey having such good play turn into suicide fest. Since when having an eco advantage means u have to desperately do damage to opponent who is getting more and more behind just as the timer is ticking anyway? He got way faster natural and gas in game five, he scouted with ling and knew perfectly that hero have the muta advantage and he just throw his place in the semis with easy hand.
Now we have the boring stuff, same old guys in the semi finals. If Finals are Hero vs Flash it will be one ugly stomp for Hero. I didnt see Hero being better than soulkey today, he had no better control and notable lack of multitasking compared to soulkey. Soulkey just throw just as Rain throw everything. After my big hope for dethroning flash is gone, dont think there is anything interesting to see after Bisu is out because Flash will toyplay with both Hero/Larva.


Is larva one of those same old guys? I don't think you can safely say hero's going to beat him too.

And when is Bisu going to be out?

bisu gonna lose to killer :O
conTAgi0n
Profile Blog Joined November 2009
United States335 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-10-17 19:05:44
October 17 2017 19:04 GMT
#132
Damnit (Z)Soulkey, what made you think that was a good time to attack with your mutalisks there in that last game? You had the slower spire, faster second hatch, and you knew (Z)hero skipped ling speed, so why pick a fight over his natural so early? And after playing so smart in the previous game too...

Oh well.. in any case I do think (Z)Larva looks better in ZvZ than both (Z)hero and (Z)Soulkey right now, so he is my pick to make it to the finals. I would have rather watched him face off against (Z)Soulkey next round for sure, but c'est la vie.
[sc1f]eonzerg
Profile Blog Joined February 2010
Belgium6592 Posts
October 17 2017 19:10 GMT
#133
im amazed about u guys saying larva looking much better based in 2 games where he mass lings.
ppp87
Profile Joined May 2016
Laos250 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-10-17 20:05:07
October 17 2017 20:01 GMT
#134
On October 18 2017 04:04 conTAgi0n wrote:
Damnit (Z)Soulkey, what made you think that was a good time to attack with your mutalisks there in that last game? You had the slower spire, faster second hatch, and you knew (Z)hero skipped ling speed, so why pick a fight over his natural so early? And after playing so smart in the previous game too...

Oh well.. in any case I do think (Z)Larva looks better in ZvZ than both (Z)hero and (Z)Soulkey right now, so he is my pick to make it to the finals. I would have rather watched him face off against (Z)Soulkey next round for sure, but c'est la vie.


Seriously, that's an incomprehensible move from Soulkey, I just dont understand how it's possible to do it at pro lvl... can
someone explain this move please.
starkiller123
Profile Joined January 2016
United States4030 Posts
October 17 2017 20:19 GMT
#135
well there goes my interest in this season of asl
conTAgi0n
Profile Blog Joined November 2009
United States335 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-10-17 20:40:23
October 17 2017 20:21 GMT
#136
On October 18 2017 04:10 [sc1f]eonzerg wrote:
im amazed about u guys saying larva looking much better based in 2 games where he mass lings.

I mean I hear what you're saying, in that we didn't see his ZvZ muta micro in that group, but you're still not giving (Z)Larva nearly enough credit. He didn't mass lings in either game or go for any kind of cheese; he outsmarted and outmicroed both of his opponents pretty handily, both of whom are themselves very strong ZvZers.

In his game vs (Z)Shine, they both opened 9pool speed. (Z)Larva won multiple battles between equal ling counts, and consistently had his lings in better positions than (Z)Shine did. The fact that he smashed (Z)Shine so hard before mutas after identical openings and more or less equal ling production is impressive, especially since (Z)Shine's ling micro is not too shabby either.

Against (Z)EffOrt, once again, both players went for identical 12 hatch openings*. Both players made about 2 control groups of zerglings before the first engagement. (Z)Larva straight up outsmarted (Z)EffOrt by building sunks at home and hiding half his lings out on the map for a backstab. Apparently believing that (Z)Larva was behind in lings, (Z)EffOrt sent all of his lings to attack. (Z)Larva not only managed to totally crush (Z)EffOrt with his backstab, but also lost practically no drones at home despite defending with only half his lings and a couple of sunks.

I'll confess that I haven't been watching (Z)Larva's stream often enough or actively enough to know what his muta micro looks like in ZvZ. Unless there is some reason to believe his muta/scourge micro lags behind the rest of his game though, I don't see how you can watch those games and not think that (Z)Larva is looking really formidable in the matchup. Even if all he's got going for him is his decision-making and micro with lings, that might almost be enough if he can keep performing like that.

* Technically, (Z)EffOrt went lair before ling speed and (Z)Larva went ling speed before lair, so the openings weren't exactly identical. Since ling speed was finished for both players before the first engage, (Z)EffOrt actually had a slight bo advantage at that point, since his muta/scourge would have started slightly sooner.
Miragee
Profile Joined December 2009
8509 Posts
October 17 2017 20:28 GMT
#137
This is pretty terrible. Soulkey would have had a real chance against Flash in the finals, in case Flash wins his semi finals. Both hero and larva don't. : / All matches on the lower side of the bracket should be more exciting than upper semis and finals...
L_Master
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
United States8017 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-10-17 20:40:20
October 17 2017 20:36 GMT
#138
On October 17 2017 23:54 _Animus_ wrote:
The best zerg just suicided himself, Flash must be really happy because he just became the new champion.
Whats wrong with these youngsters really? Rain and Soulkey having such good play turn into suicide fest. Since when having an eco advantage means u have to desperately do damage to opponent who is getting more and more behind just as the timer is ticking anyway? He got way faster natural and gas in game five, he scouted with ling and knew perfectly that hero have the muta advantage and he just throw his place in the semis with easy hand.
Now we have same old guys in the semi finals. If Finals are Hero vs Flash it will be one ugly stomp for Hero. I didnt see Hero being better than soulkey today, he had no better control and notable lack of multitasking compared to soulkey. Soulkey just throw just as Rain throw everything. After my big hope for dethroning flash is gone, dont think there is anything interesting to see after Bisu is out because Flash will toyplay with both Hero/Larva.


We already talked about this in the other thread too Animus, Rain didn't throw anything, he just got outplayed.

Soulkey is one of the best late mech players around. But so is Larva.

Acting like Flash is more likely to "toyplay" with Larva than he is with SK is absolutely ridiculous. Neither player has a good chance, Flash is Flash when it comes down to it, but Larva, SK, and EffOrt are head and shoulders the best ZvTers playing right now. Moreover acting like Larva's ZvT is even remotely related to herO's ZvT is ridiculous. herO is, and has always been, a decent ZvZer and at times a brilliant ZvPer. His ZvT has always been mediocre.

On October 18 2017 01:21 Dazed. wrote:
Never bought into soulkey. Played cheesy last season, his record on afreeca is good but only against weak players. Neither of them looked like they are in form to take down larva. Should be a pretty one sided semi final.


SK has always been good. Not sure what there is to buy into. He was one of the strongest zergs at the end of BW era (close to 60% WR) and was clearly the best late mech player around in 11'/12', trends he has continued in till today. SK in ZvP or early/mid ZvT was never particularly impressive or brilliant, but better than average. As far as I can tell the same holds true now. His area of brilliance has always been in lategame ZvT, and in that area he separated himself from his peers, and is still clearly incredibly strong there.

I don't think he is the second coming of JD, but he is a top tier zerg with particularly excellent late mech ZvT.

EffOrt and Soulkey Hwaiting!
[sc1f]eonzerg
Profile Blog Joined February 2010
Belgium6592 Posts
October 17 2017 20:39 GMT
#139
rain vs larva game 4 was a big throw
[sc1f]eonzerg
Profile Blog Joined February 2010
Belgium6592 Posts
October 17 2017 20:44 GMT
#140
On October 18 2017 05:21 conTAgi0n wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 18 2017 04:10 [sc1f]eonzerg wrote:
im amazed about u guys saying larva looking much better based in 2 games where he mass lings.

I mean I hear what you're saying, in that we didn't see his ZvZ muta micro in that group, but you're still not giving (Z)Larva nearly enough credit. He didn't mass lings in either game or go for any kind of cheese; he outsmarted and outmicroed both of his opponents pretty handily, both of whom are themselves very strong ZvZers.

In his game vs (Z)Shine, they both opened 9pool speed. (Z)Larva won multiple battles between equal ling counts, and consistently had his lings in better positions than (Z)Shine did. The fact that he smashed (Z)Shine so hard before mutas after identical openings and more or less equal ling production is impressive, especially since (Z)Shine's ling micro is not too shabby either.

Against (Z)EffOrt, once again, both players went for identical 12 hatch openings*. Both players made about 2 control groups of zerglings before the first engagement. (Z)Larva straight up outsmarted (Z)EffOrt by building sunks at home and hiding half his lings out on the map for a backstab. Apparently believing that (Z)Larva was behind in lings, (Z)EffOrt sent all of his lings to attack. (Z)Larva managed not only to totally crush (Z)EffOrt with his backstab, but lost practically no drones at home despite defending with only half his lings and a couple of sunks.

I'll confess that I haven't been watching (Z)Larva's stream often enough or actively enough to know what his muta micro looks like in ZvZ. Unless there is some reason to believe his muta/scourge micro lags behind the rest of his game though, I don't see how you can watch those games and not think that (Z)Larva is looking really formidable in the matchup. Even if all he's got going for him is his decision-making and micro with lings, that might almost be enough if he can keep performing like that.

* Technically, (Z)EffOrt went lair before ling speed and (Z)Larva went ling speed before lair, so the openings weren't exactly identical. Since ling speed was finished for both players before the first engage, (Z)EffOrt actually had a slight bo advantage at that point, since his muta/scourge would have started slightly sooner.

larva played bo1 vs 2 different players in a two very specific situations, the first game was 9p vs 9p both made 6 lings,Larva hide his lings and counter attack,shine made 1 extra drone and loss 2 lings for free to that counter,this made him loss drones ,larva just made lings and defended well the attack at his main.Larva vs effort was mean to be more of the same,if effort didnt attack larva will attack him in some kind of all in attack,turns out effort decided to attack(i think overconfident,most of the games i see effort lossing is cuz he likes himself so much) 2 games 2 different players,good strat for a bo1 where it shows a player can make mass lings,didnt excell lings micro,he just had more.I was pretty sure hero will win vs soulkey,his zvz zvp are very very strong,he will win vs larva,larva zvz is weak.
L_Master
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
United States8017 Posts
October 17 2017 20:46 GMT
#141
On October 18 2017 05:39 [sc1f]eonzerg wrote:
rain vs larva game 4 was a big throw


The biggest throw was game 2 where Larva decided to just go attack Rain's giant army with all his lurkers at Rain's defended third expansion.

I can see calling game 4 a throw at the point where Larva's attack at Rain's three had failed and Rain had just wiped out mining at both of Larva's top bases. That said, I can understand why he did it. He had just gotten absolutely held at bay in the previous game against Larva's crazy defense, and I don't think was feeling comfortable at all taking it to the lategame. Combined with the damage that had been done I think he felt his attack could win it, and gave more to it than he should have.

To me though, Game 4 doesn't really exemplify what I'd call a throw, which is basically doing something really stupid to take an even position to an auto loss, or to take a won position and let you're opponent back in or equal to you with one boneheaded move. Rain's attack was a mistake sure, but it took him from being just a little ahead to back to an even position. It wasn't like he was up 200 supply and 5 bases to 50 supply and one mining base and somehow lost. It was the swing of a moderate advantage to an even game. Larva's swing in G2 was much bigger than Rain's in game 4.
EffOrt and Soulkey Hwaiting!
[sc1f]eonzerg
Profile Blog Joined February 2010
Belgium6592 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-10-17 20:57:48
October 17 2017 20:52 GMT
#142
u should rewatch the game,and if you did then watch it again,cant be that hard.

but i guess you are right in something,the game in gold rush really did hurt him to a point that he played that bad after.
Jack_
Profile Joined March 2011
Italy38 Posts
October 17 2017 21:29 GMT
#143
Game 4 was really good, I tought Soulkey was dead after he lost the sunken
FlaShFTW
Profile Blog Joined February 2010
United States10162 Posts
October 17 2017 22:14 GMT
#144
To everyone who's constantly moaning and complaining about a player upsetting another player because he wont have a chance against FlaSh in the finals: shut up. There is no "should have". There is only "happens". A player lost. Maybe he didn't have his A game that day. Maybe the other player was playing stellar that day. Who knows? But to comment that a player shouldn't have won because he's going to get owned further down the tourney, then why play at all? Why would hero even play this tournament knowing he has no chance against FlaSh? Why would 4/5ths of this field play if they knew they had no chance against FlaSh in a BOX down the line? That attitude is terrible, and it undermines the level of practice and skill that the players have had to develop to participate in this tournament. Shame on anyone who tries to belittle or put down players simply because they can't beat FlaSh in BoX.
Writer#1 KT and FlaSh Fanboy || Woo Jung Ho Never Forget || Teamliquid Political Decision Desk
TL+ Member
L_Master
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
United States8017 Posts
October 17 2017 22:43 GMT
#145
On October 18 2017 07:14 FlaShFTW wrote:
To everyone who's constantly moaning and complaining about a player upsetting another player because he wont have a chance against FlaSh in the finals: shut up. There is no "should have". There is only "happens". A player lost. Maybe he didn't have his A game that day. Maybe the other player was playing stellar that day. Who knows? But to comment that a player shouldn't have won because he's going to get owned further down the tourney, then why play at all? Why would hero even play this tournament knowing he has no chance against FlaSh? Why would 4/5ths of this field play if they knew they had no chance against FlaSh in a BOX down the line? That attitude is terrible, and it undermines the level of practice and skill that the players have had to develop to participate in this tournament. Shame on anyone who tries to belittle or put down players simply because they can't beat FlaSh in BoX.


The bolded mindset is indeed obnoxious and terrible.

I think only a few are actually complaining that way though. As a viewer, it's reasonable to be disappointed that a good player didn't bring his A game to a particular series, as it does reduce the chances of having an incredible finals series. Suprises happen, but I think most of us would agree that a FlaSh vs Bisu or a FlaSh vs EffOrt or a FlaSh vs Larva series have the potential to be much better series than a FlaSh vs herO or FlaSh vs Snow or FlaSh vs Shinee.
EffOrt and Soulkey Hwaiting!
RowdierBob
Profile Blog Joined May 2003
Australia13007 Posts
October 17 2017 22:52 GMT
#146
I don't think anyone begrudges Hero for winning, but personally I'd rather SK advanced as I would've liked to see him play in the final v Flash or Bisu (assuming one of those two make it).
"Terrans are pretty much space-Australians" - H
SlayerS_BunkiE
Profile Blog Joined May 2009
Canada1707 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-10-18 00:24:19
October 17 2017 23:33 GMT
#147
I think if its against bisu, hero has as good a chance as soulkey. And bisu has a better chance against flash than most people wld like to admit.
And mind isn't a freebie for flash either. Would be a big upset but mind has a real shot.
iloveby.SlayerS_BunkiE[Shield]
NoS-Craig
Profile Joined July 2011
Australia3116 Posts
October 18 2017 01:21 GMT
#148
Shame SoulKey lost but ZvZ is a crazy match up. Game 4 was ballsy as fuck, god damn going hatch first again and then holding on to win. Was sad to see him lose the series after such a great game in game 4.

Congrats to Hero though, awesome for him to get a top 4 finish.
Artosis loves Starcraft
conTAgi0n
Profile Blog Joined November 2009
United States335 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-10-18 03:41:52
October 18 2017 02:31 GMT
#149
On October 18 2017 05:44 [sc1f]eonzerg wrote:
good strat for a bo1 where it shows a player can make mass lings,didnt excell lings micro,he just had more.

This just isn't true though. In both games, the ling counts between both players were very similar.

Using this video for time stamps:



(Z)Larva vs (Z)Shine

After identical openings, Shine gets to Larva's base first (because he ran his lings straight there through overlord vision rather than carefully skirting around like Larva did) at 19m27s. Shine has 6 lings in Larva's base to Larva's 4. During the course of the battle, Larva hatches 4 more lings while 4 reinforcing lings also arrive for Shine. By the end of that battle, Shine has lost all his attacking lings while Larva has 6 defenders left over. Larva suffers only one drone loss.

Meanwhile, on Shine's side of the map, Larva's 6 attacking lings pick off 2 of Shine's reinforcements. I wouldn't call that luck, since Larva had full vision of Shine's reinforcement route, while being careful not to reveal his own lings to Shine. Thus despite making exactly the same number of lings, Shine has 2 lings instead of 4 to defend his base with, and loses several drones.

They both did the same thing off the same build with the same number of lings - immediately move out to attack while reinforcing/defending with continued ling production. Larva came out way ahead because he played smarter (avoided ovie vision) and micro'd better (in the battle at his own base).

Larva's next attack arrives at 20m45s. He busts a 4 ling concave at the top of the ramp with 6 lings, losing only 1 ling in the process while killing all 4 defenders. Larva moves 4 of his lings in to attack, disrupting mining until 4 lings hatch for Shine. Larva then dances his 4 around while waiting for reinforcements, losing 2 of them in the process. When Larva's reinforcements arrive at 21m24s, it's 6 lings against 6 in Shine's base. Even with a few drones taking shots at Larva's lings, Larva wins the battle with one zergling left over. At this point Shine is so far behind that he just GGs as Larva's next 2 lings arrive.

That should show about as exhaustively as possible that the ling counts were almost identical. Every advantage that Larva got in that game, he earned through smarter/more careful play, and just straight up better micro.


(Z)Larva vs (Z)EffOrt

As mentioned before, identical 12 hatch openings. Both make 2 control groups of lings, but Larva positions his lings out on the map, out of EffOrt's vision and near enough to backstab. EffOrt on the other hand parks his lings in his natural. Larva's overlord at EffOrt's natural sees all of EffOrt's lings, but EffOrt doesn't have much info on Larva's ling count.

Larva puts down a creep colony at his natural and begins morphing it to a sunken as soon as EffOrt's other overlord spots it at 53m30s. Seeing only a dozen lings and a morphing sunken, EffOrt immediately sends all his lings to attack, apparently under the impression that Larva is building the sunken colony to compensate for a significant ling deficit.

At 53m44s, EffOrt attacks with 24 lings against Larva's 12 plus a sunken colony, while Larva attacks with 12 lings against basically no defenses whatsoever. I don't think it's necessary to catalog every larva expenditure after that. Larva's defense was obviously impressive, and EffOrt's base was obviously fucked at that point no matter what.

On October 18 2017 05:44 [sc1f]eonzerg wrote:
Larva vs effort was mean to be more of the same,if effort didnt attack larva will attack him in some kind of all in attack

There is no reason to believe that Larva would have attacked if EffOrt didn't. He wasn't behind economically, so he was under no pressure to pick a fight with EffOrt. More likely, Larva would have kept his lings out on the map for map control and backstab potential.

If it seemed to you like Larva had more lings than his opponents in those games, that is just testament to how much better he used them. After counting basically every ling in both games, I can assure you that he neither all-ined nor even had a greater ling count. In fact, it is rare to see ZvZs in which both players were so closely mirrored as in these two games.
EsportsJohn
Profile Blog Joined June 2012
United States4883 Posts
October 18 2017 02:35 GMT
#150
On October 18 2017 05:01 ppp87 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 18 2017 04:04 conTAgi0n wrote:
Damnit (Z)Soulkey, what made you think that was a good time to attack with your mutalisks there in that last game? You had the slower spire, faster second hatch, and you knew (Z)hero skipped ling speed, so why pick a fight over his natural so early? And after playing so smart in the previous game too...

Oh well.. in any case I do think (Z)Larva looks better in ZvZ than both (Z)hero and (Z)Soulkey right now, so he is my pick to make it to the finals. I would have rather watched him face off against (Z)Soulkey next round for sure, but c'est la vie.


Seriously, that's an incomprehensible move from Soulkey, I just dont understand how it's possible to do it at pro lvl... can
someone explain this move please.


Honestly, Soulkey had a lot less information that we did. If we put ourselves in his shoes, it looks like a mirrored build (9pool vs 9pool) in which Soulkey managed to gain map control. Off the back of that map control, he got an earlier natural and what he thought might have been an extra drone or two. With the assumption that both builds were mirrored, there was definitely a chance to bust his opponent there and then just keep flooding scourge until his mutas won out, even with that extra 100 gas that hero saved by not going ling speed (which could have also gone into a fast carapace upgrade and given hero a stronger mid game advantage).

The same sort of thing happened in G1 as well. I'm tending toward believing that Soulkey had no idea he was facing an overpool in both games. From his perspective, it would have looked like a mirrored build where he had the tech advantage and a clear timing window to attack.
StrategyAllyssa Grey <3<3
L_Master
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
United States8017 Posts
October 18 2017 02:37 GMT
#151
On October 18 2017 08:33 SlayerS_BunkiE wrote:
I think if its against bisu, hero has as good a chance as soulkey. And bisu has a better chance against flash than most people wld like to admit.
And mind isn't a freebie for flash either. Would be a big upset but mind has a real shot.


Yep. I think in all honesty Bisu might have the best chance against Flash of anyone in this tournament. Certainly his chances are at a minimum at least as good as SK/EffOrt/Larva would have had.
EffOrt and Soulkey Hwaiting!
RWLabs
Profile Joined March 2017
Korea (South)273 Posts
October 18 2017 02:44 GMT
#152
Is it Stockholm syndrome if I start enjoying ZvZs?
Aldaris was the good guy of Brood War.
BigFan
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
TLADT24920 Posts
October 18 2017 03:04 GMT
#153
Well done contagion. Larva dominated those two ZvZs through wits and micro. Should be obvious to anyone who watched the games.

On October 18 2017 11:44 RWLabs wrote:
Is it Stockholm syndrome if I start enjoying ZvZs?

nope, these games today were just really good especially game 4.

Former BW EiC"Watch Bakemonogatari or I will kill you." -Toad, April 18th, 2017
De4ngus
Profile Blog Joined November 2008
United States6533 Posts
October 18 2017 03:21 GMT
#154
On October 18 2017 11:35 EsportsJohn wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 18 2017 05:01 ppp87 wrote:
On October 18 2017 04:04 conTAgi0n wrote:
Damnit (Z)Soulkey, what made you think that was a good time to attack with your mutalisks there in that last game? You had the slower spire, faster second hatch, and you knew (Z)hero skipped ling speed, so why pick a fight over his natural so early? And after playing so smart in the previous game too...

Oh well.. in any case I do think (Z)Larva looks better in ZvZ than both (Z)hero and (Z)Soulkey right now, so he is my pick to make it to the finals. I would have rather watched him face off against (Z)Soulkey next round for sure, but c'est la vie.


Seriously, that's an incomprehensible move from Soulkey, I just dont understand how it's possible to do it at pro lvl... can
someone explain this move please.


Honestly, Soulkey had a lot less information that we did. If we put ourselves in his shoes, it looks like a mirrored build (9pool vs 9pool) in which Soulkey managed to gain map control. Off the back of that map control, he got an earlier natural and what he thought might have been an extra drone or two. With the assumption that both builds were mirrored, there was definitely a chance to bust his opponent there and then just keep flooding scourge until his mutas won out, even with that extra 100 gas that hero saved by not going ling speed (which could have also gone into a fast carapace upgrade and given hero a stronger mid game advantage).

The same sort of thing happened in G1 as well. I'm tending toward believing that Soulkey had no idea he was facing an overpool in both games. From his perspective, it would have looked like a mirrored build where he had the tech advantage and a clear timing window to attack.

In G1 Soulkey's lings ran into a half-done hatchery at Hero's nat, and in G3 the overlord saw all the initial lings spawn, so Soulkey knew what opening build he was against 100% in both of those games.
GANDHISAUCE
EsportsJohn
Profile Blog Joined June 2012
United States4883 Posts
October 18 2017 03:39 GMT
#155
On October 18 2017 12:21 De4ngus wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 18 2017 11:35 EsportsJohn wrote:
On October 18 2017 05:01 ppp87 wrote:
On October 18 2017 04:04 conTAgi0n wrote:
Damnit (Z)Soulkey, what made you think that was a good time to attack with your mutalisks there in that last game? You had the slower spire, faster second hatch, and you knew (Z)hero skipped ling speed, so why pick a fight over his natural so early? And after playing so smart in the previous game too...

Oh well.. in any case I do think (Z)Larva looks better in ZvZ than both (Z)hero and (Z)Soulkey right now, so he is my pick to make it to the finals. I would have rather watched him face off against (Z)Soulkey next round for sure, but c'est la vie.


Seriously, that's an incomprehensible move from Soulkey, I just dont understand how it's possible to do it at pro lvl... can
someone explain this move please.


Honestly, Soulkey had a lot less information that we did. If we put ourselves in his shoes, it looks like a mirrored build (9pool vs 9pool) in which Soulkey managed to gain map control. Off the back of that map control, he got an earlier natural and what he thought might have been an extra drone or two. With the assumption that both builds were mirrored, there was definitely a chance to bust his opponent there and then just keep flooding scourge until his mutas won out, even with that extra 100 gas that hero saved by not going ling speed (which could have also gone into a fast carapace upgrade and given hero a stronger mid game advantage).

The same sort of thing happened in G1 as well. I'm tending toward believing that Soulkey had no idea he was facing an overpool in both games. From his perspective, it would have looked like a mirrored build where he had the tech advantage and a clear timing window to attack.

In G1 Soulkey's lings ran into a half-done hatchery at Hero's nat, and in G3 the overlord saw all the initial lings spawn, so Soulkey knew what opening build he was against 100% in both of those games.


Fair. I still have to believe there's a reason why he went all-in in both games. I don't think it had to do with him just going retarded for a second, I think he actually had a reason for doing it...just having trouble pinpointing what it is.
StrategyAllyssa Grey <3<3
De4ngus
Profile Blog Joined November 2008
United States6533 Posts
October 18 2017 03:54 GMT
#156
On October 18 2017 12:39 EsportsJohn wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 18 2017 12:21 De4ngus wrote:
On October 18 2017 11:35 EsportsJohn wrote:
On October 18 2017 05:01 ppp87 wrote:
On October 18 2017 04:04 conTAgi0n wrote:
Damnit (Z)Soulkey, what made you think that was a good time to attack with your mutalisks there in that last game? You had the slower spire, faster second hatch, and you knew (Z)hero skipped ling speed, so why pick a fight over his natural so early? And after playing so smart in the previous game too...

Oh well.. in any case I do think (Z)Larva looks better in ZvZ than both (Z)hero and (Z)Soulkey right now, so he is my pick to make it to the finals. I would have rather watched him face off against (Z)Soulkey next round for sure, but c'est la vie.


Seriously, that's an incomprehensible move from Soulkey, I just dont understand how it's possible to do it at pro lvl... can
someone explain this move please.


Honestly, Soulkey had a lot less information that we did. If we put ourselves in his shoes, it looks like a mirrored build (9pool vs 9pool) in which Soulkey managed to gain map control. Off the back of that map control, he got an earlier natural and what he thought might have been an extra drone or two. With the assumption that both builds were mirrored, there was definitely a chance to bust his opponent there and then just keep flooding scourge until his mutas won out, even with that extra 100 gas that hero saved by not going ling speed (which could have also gone into a fast carapace upgrade and given hero a stronger mid game advantage).

The same sort of thing happened in G1 as well. I'm tending toward believing that Soulkey had no idea he was facing an overpool in both games. From his perspective, it would have looked like a mirrored build where he had the tech advantage and a clear timing window to attack.

In G1 Soulkey's lings ran into a half-done hatchery at Hero's nat, and in G3 the overlord saw all the initial lings spawn, so Soulkey knew what opening build he was against 100% in both of those games.


Fair. I still have to believe there's a reason why he went all-in in both games. I don't think it had to do with him just going retarded for a second, I think he actually had a reason for doing it...just having trouble pinpointing what it is.

Well he was at a BO disadvantage both times, which is difficult to come back from in ZvZ, so there's that lol.
GANDHISAUCE
Golgotha
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
Korea (South)8418 Posts
October 18 2017 04:48 GMT
#157
On October 18 2017 07:14 FlaShFTW wrote:
To everyone who's constantly moaning and complaining about a player upsetting another player because he wont have a chance against FlaSh in the finals: shut up. There is no "should have". There is only "happens". A player lost. Maybe he didn't have his A game that day. Maybe the other player was playing stellar that day. Who knows? But to comment that a player shouldn't have won because he's going to get owned further down the tourney, then why play at all? Why would hero even play this tournament knowing he has no chance against FlaSh? Why would 4/5ths of this field play if they knew they had no chance against FlaSh in a BOX down the line? That attitude is terrible, and it undermines the level of practice and skill that the players have had to develop to participate in this tournament. Shame on anyone who tries to belittle or put down players simply because they can't beat FlaSh in BoX.


This actually made me a bit shamed. You are right, all we can do now is hope for close and good games!
L_Master
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
United States8017 Posts
October 18 2017 04:52 GMT
#158
On October 18 2017 11:44 RWLabs wrote:
Is it Stockholm syndrome if I start enjoying ZvZs?


ZvZ is excellent. Always has been
EffOrt and Soulkey Hwaiting!
rackdude
Profile Blog Joined January 2010
United States882 Posts
October 18 2017 05:21 GMT
#159
On October 18 2017 07:43 L_Master wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 18 2017 07:14 FlaShFTW wrote:
To everyone who's constantly moaning and complaining about a player upsetting another player because he wont have a chance against FlaSh in the finals: shut up. There is no "should have". There is only "happens". A player lost. Maybe he didn't have his A game that day. Maybe the other player was playing stellar that day. Who knows? But to comment that a player shouldn't have won because he's going to get owned further down the tourney, then why play at all? Why would hero even play this tournament knowing he has no chance against FlaSh? Why would 4/5ths of this field play if they knew they had no chance against FlaSh in a BOX down the line? That attitude is terrible, and it undermines the level of practice and skill that the players have had to develop to participate in this tournament. Shame on anyone who tries to belittle or put down players simply because they can't beat FlaSh in BoX.


The bolded mindset is indeed obnoxious and terrible.

I think only a few are actually complaining that way though. As a viewer, it's reasonable to be disappointed that a good player didn't bring his A game to a particular series, as it does reduce the chances of having an incredible finals series. Suprises happen, but I think most of us would agree that a FlaSh vs Bisu or a FlaSh vs EffOrt or a FlaSh vs Larva series have the potential to be much better series than a FlaSh vs herO or FlaSh vs Snow or FlaSh vs Shinee.


Except Flash vs Snow would be awesome.
Sweet.
TaardadAiel
Profile Joined May 2017
Bulgaria750 Posts
October 18 2017 08:27 GMT
#160
Am I the only one who was very, very impressed by the pathing and timing of HerO's lings in game 3 on CF? He knew for absolutely certain when and where SK would have ovies - and he was really precise with sight ranges, too - and took maximum advantage from that. Actually, why is this the meta on 2 player maps - not sending the overlord to the other guy's main? Especially on CF, where you have two ways out of the front yard natural? Nothing happens without reason on such high-level play, but I don't have a clue, really.
WriterReV hwaiting!
_Animus_
Profile Joined February 2011
Bulgaria1064 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-10-18 09:41:47
October 18 2017 08:33 GMT
#161
On October 18 2017 05:01 ppp87 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 18 2017 04:04 conTAgi0n wrote:
Damnit (Z)Soulkey, what made you think that was a good time to attack with your mutalisks there in that last game? You had the slower spire, faster second hatch, and you knew (Z)hero skipped ling speed, so why pick a fight over his natural so early? And after playing so smart in the previous game too...

Oh well.. in any case I do think (Z)Larva looks better in ZvZ than both (Z)hero and (Z)Soulkey right now, so he is my pick to make it to the finals. I would have rather watched him face off against (Z)Soulkey next round for sure, but c'est la vie.


Seriously, that's an incomprehensible move from Soulkey, I just dont understand how it's possible to do it at pro lvl... can
someone explain this move please.

Nerves
On October 18 2017 11:35 EsportsJohn wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 18 2017 05:01 ppp87 wrote:
On October 18 2017 04:04 conTAgi0n wrote:
Damnit (Z)Soulkey, what made you think that was a good time to attack with your mutalisks there in that last game? You had the slower spire, faster second hatch, and you knew (Z)hero skipped ling speed, so why pick a fight over his natural so early? And after playing so smart in the previous game too...

Oh well.. in any case I do think (Z)Larva looks better in ZvZ than both (Z)hero and (Z)Soulkey right now, so he is my pick to make it to the finals. I would have rather watched him face off against (Z)Soulkey next round for sure, but c'est la vie.


Seriously, that's an incomprehensible move from Soulkey, I just dont understand how it's possible to do it at pro lvl... can
someone explain this move please.


Honestly, Soulkey had a lot less information that we did. If we put ourselves in his shoes, it looks like a mirrored build (9pool vs 9pool) in which Soulkey managed to gain map control. Off the back of that map control, he got an earlier natural and what he thought might have been an extra drone or two. With the assumption that both builds were mirrored, there was definitely a chance to bust his opponent there and then just keep flooding scourge until his mutas won out, even with that extra 100 gas that hero saved by not going ling speed (which could have also gone into a fast carapace upgrade and given hero a stronger mid game advantage).

The same sort of thing happened in G1 as well. I'm tending toward believing that Soulkey had no idea he was facing an overpool in both games. From his perspective, it would have looked like a mirrored build where he had the tech advantage and a clear timing window to attack.

He had seen no speed for hero, then snuck a ling into hero main seeing the faster spire, i doubt he think hero will be having less muta than him, it was just a tilt move, similar to that throw in game 1.
On October 18 2017 05:36 L_Master wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 17 2017 23:54 _Animus_ wrote:
The best zerg just suicided himself, Flash must be really happy because he just became the new champion.
Whats wrong with these youngsters really? Rain and Soulkey having such good play turn into suicide fest. Since when having an eco advantage means u have to desperately do damage to opponent who is getting more and more behind just as the timer is ticking anyway? He got way faster natural and gas in game five, he scouted with ling and knew perfectly that hero have the muta advantage and he just throw his place in the semis with easy hand.
Now we have same old guys in the semi finals. If Finals are Hero vs Flash it will be one ugly stomp for Hero. I didnt see Hero being better than soulkey today, he had no better control and notable lack of multitasking compared to soulkey. Soulkey just throw just as Rain throw everything. After my big hope for dethroning flash is gone, dont think there is anything interesting to see after Bisu is out because Flash will toyplay with both Hero/Larva.


We already talked about this in the other thread too Animus, Rain didn't throw anything, he just got outplayed.


Acting like Flash is more likely to "toyplay" with Larva than he is with SK is absolutely ridiculous. Neither player has a good chance, Flash is Flash when it comes down to it, but Larva, SK, and EffOrt are head and shoulders the best ZvTers playing right now. Moreover acting like Larva's ZvT is even remotely related to herO's ZvT is ridiculous. herO is, and has always been, a decent ZvZer and at times a brilliant ZvPer. His ZvT has always been mediocre.




We seem to understand the term outplayed in different ways. For me its just Rain outplayed himself into favor of Larva. Having same number of bases against protoss and droping to almost half of his limit is something that i cannot agree a better player will do against his opponent.

I hope to see Larva doing at least on the same level as Soulkey vs Flash in this tournament, until that happen il have my doubts about him.
Luv ya BroodWar!
_Animus_
Profile Joined February 2011
Bulgaria1064 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-10-18 08:55:39
October 18 2017 08:55 GMT
#162
double post
Luv ya BroodWar!
orvinreyes
Profile Joined June 2007
577 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-10-18 10:23:32
October 18 2017 10:19 GMT
#163
At the rate things are going maybe it makes sense to predict outcomes using 6-month spon match statistics (5/17 to 10/17):

Ro8

Larva vs Rain: 31 Games, 20W 11L = 64.5%

Larva dominating victory (fulfilled)

Hero vs Soulkey: 17 Games, 9W 8L = 52.9%

Hero slight edge victory (fulfilled)

Bisu vs killer: 16 Games, 14W 2L = 87.5%

Bisu dominating victory - prediction

Flash vs Mind: 14 Games, 11W 3L = 78.6%

Flash dominating victory - prediction

---

Ro4

hero vs Larva: 7 Games, 6W 1L = 85.7%

Hero dominating victory - prediction

Flash vs Bisu: 27 Games, 18W 9L = 66.7%

Flash dominating victory - prediction

---

Finals

Flash vs hero: 60 Games, 49W 11L = 81.7%

Flash dominating victory - prediction

http://youtu.be/LfmrHTdXgK4
IntoTheStorm
Profile Blog Joined October 2016
116 Posts
October 18 2017 10:40 GMT
#164
On October 18 2017 19:19 orvinreyes wrote:
At the rate things are going maybe it makes sense to predict outcomes using 6-month spon match statistics (5/17 to 10/17):


No, it doesn't work like that, we can not reliably predict future events based on data from the past, the future doesn't work like that.
This is like trying to predict how severe the next financial crisis will be. You just can't. You stress test the banks with crisis from the past but no, it still sucks for prediction. Because the future one will somehow always be stronger.
It's the same in sports. This team wins 80% of games past so it will win in the finals. No, no, no. The team might win but it's not because of past victories, this is not a reliable point on which to base future predictions. Never has been, never will be.
Skybrod
Profile Joined January 2010
Russian Federation19 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-10-18 10:57:06
October 18 2017 10:49 GMT
#165
On October 18 2017 19:40 IntoTheStorm wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 18 2017 19:19 orvinreyes wrote:
At the rate things are going maybe it makes sense to predict outcomes using 6-month spon match statistics (5/17 to 10/17):


No, it doesn't work like that, we can not reliably predict future events based on data from the past, the future doesn't work like that.
This is like trying to predict how severe the next financial crisis will be. You just can't. You stress test the banks with crisis from the past but no, it still sucks for prediction. Because the future one will somehow always be stronger.
It's the same in sports. This team wins 80% of games past so it will win in the finals. No, no, no. The team might win but it's not because of past victories, this is not a reliable point on which to base future predictions. Never has been, never will be.


Well, we can, to some degree, but the prediction does not work for a single match or even for a bo 5, as you correctly point out. We can estimate, given a large sample of games that, say, Bisu's true skill in PvZ in X%, and Flash's true skill in TvZ is Y%, but it doesn't of course mean that they win their next BO3 or BO5 3-1 or 3-2, because it's just too much variation. It means that in the long run they are most likely to have X% or Y% winrate in a particular matchup.

Needless to say, the data sample cited above is way too small. Besides, ZvZ is probably much much harder to predict and needs probably x3 or x4 size of a sample to atleast start talking about estimating the players.

Most probably, the data we have is sufficient only for determining how one particular player does in a certain matchup. We will most probably never be able to reliably evaluate player vs. player data, although if Larva sometime in the future amasses 1000 recorded games vs. Flash and 1000 vs. Bisu, maybe it will be possible then.
IntoTheStorm
Profile Blog Joined October 2016
116 Posts
October 18 2017 11:12 GMT
#166
On October 18 2017 19:49 Skybrod wrote:
although if Larva sometime in the future amasses 1000 recorded games vs. Flash and 1000 vs. Bisu, maybe it will be possible then.


No, it would still not be possible, regardless of the sample size, 1000 or 10000 games vs a said player. You would only know that Larva has won like 40% of the past games vs Bisu.Or 50%, 60%, whatever. You can not predict the outcome of the next game based on that. It should be clear to everyone.
There is randomness, there are other things that affect how a player plays a game, there is health, there is attitude at the time of the game, there is mentality - too many factors to reliably predict anything. And this is the beauty of all competition - it is unpredictable, rare events do happen and influence the outcome of competition. This unpredictability is what bookmakers make their money off of.
For spectators like us, this quality of the games is amazing - to not know when the favorite will slip, this is what makes every sport (electronic of physical) attractive to me. This is why I watch muay thai matches - there is this dude, he is probably better but does it mean an auto win? No, the other guy is there to challenge and test him. He might connect with an elbow or a head kick, you never know.
orvinreyes
Profile Joined June 2007
577 Posts
October 18 2017 11:20 GMT
#167
On October 18 2017 20:12 IntoTheStorm wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 18 2017 19:49 Skybrod wrote:
although if Larva sometime in the future amasses 1000 recorded games vs. Flash and 1000 vs. Bisu, maybe it will be possible then.


No, it would still not be possible, regardless of the sample size, 1000 or 10000 games vs a said player. You would only know that Larva has won like 40% of the past games vs Bisu.Or 50%, 60%, whatever. You can not predict the outcome of the next game based on that. It should be clear to everyone.
There is randomness, there are other things that affect how a player plays a game, there is health, there is attitude at the time of the game, there is mentality - too many factors to reliably predict anything. And this is the beauty of all competition - it is unpredictable, rare events do happen and influence the outcome of competition. This unpredictability is what bookmakers make their money off of.
For spectators like us, this quality of the games is amazing - to not know when the favorite will slip, this is what makes every sport (electronic of physical) attractive to me. This is why I watch muay thai matches - there is this dude, he is probably better but does it mean an auto win? No, the other guy is there to challenge and test him. He might connect with an elbow or a head kick, you never know.


Fully agree, correlation != causation. I played enough poker and bet on enough stocks and fx trades to know. Those are just my predictions for fun. Sorry if I shit on the sweet science of statistics.
http://youtu.be/LfmrHTdXgK4
2Pacalypse-
Profile Joined October 2006
Croatia9505 Posts
October 18 2017 11:45 GMT
#168
On October 18 2017 19:40 IntoTheStorm wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 18 2017 19:19 orvinreyes wrote:
At the rate things are going maybe it makes sense to predict outcomes using 6-month spon match statistics (5/17 to 10/17):


No, it doesn't work like that, we can not reliably predict future events based on data from the past, the future doesn't work like that.

You've just described whole of science. Saying it doesn't work is quite funny.
Moderator"We're a community of geniuses because we've found how to extract 95% of the feeling of doing something amazing without actually doing anything." - Chill
Skybrod
Profile Joined January 2010
Russian Federation19 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-10-18 12:38:12
October 18 2017 12:36 GMT
#169
On October 18 2017 20:12 IntoTheStorm wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 18 2017 19:49 Skybrod wrote:
although if Larva sometime in the future amasses 1000 recorded games vs. Flash and 1000 vs. Bisu, maybe it will be possible then.


No, it would still not be possible, regardless of the sample size, 1000 or 10000 games vs a said player. You would only know that Larva has won like 40% of the past games vs Bisu.Or 50%, 60%, whatever. You can not predict the outcome of the next game based on that. It should be clear to everyone.
There is randomness, there are other things that affect how a player plays a game, there is health, there is attitude at the time of the game, there is mentality - too many factors to reliably predict anything. And this is the beauty of all competition - it is unpredictable, rare events do happen and influence the outcome of competition. This unpredictability is what bookmakers make their money off of.
For spectators like us, this quality of the games is amazing - to not know when the favorite will slip, this is what makes every sport (electronic of physical) attractive to me. This is why I watch muay thai matches - there is this dude, he is probably better but does it mean an auto win? No, the other guy is there to challenge and test him. He might connect with an elbow or a head kick, you never know.


I did not claim that one could predict the outcome of the next game, I explicitly stated that it is not possible, I was talking about the estimate of a player's perfomance in the long run, given sufficiently large sample size. That's how projections in baseball nowadays work. They project a player's whole season (400-500 plate appearances), although baseball is probably better suited for analysis than BW matches.

I would also disagree with you on your claim that prediction is not possible based on previous data. There's such thing as statistical learning which is applied to many spheres. E.g. if the size of tumor strongly correlates with the fact whether this tumor is malign or benign, we can make a sufficiently accurate prediction that if a person has a tumor of certain size, there's a good chance it will be malign/benign. Sorry for the offtop, just to illustrate the point.
Djabanete
Profile Blog Joined May 2008
United States2786 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-10-18 13:13:44
October 18 2017 13:13 GMT
#170
Good job Hero! I like Soulkey a lot and expect him to do very well in the future, but today Hero played better. Moreover, he played better in a tricky way, which is exactly what a champion must do.

His overlord-dodging on Crossing Field was awesome.
May the BeSt man win.
DOgMeAt
Profile Joined August 2005
Czech Republic142 Posts
October 18 2017 13:40 GMT
#171
On October 18 2017 20:45 2Pacalypse- wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 18 2017 19:40 IntoTheStorm wrote:
On October 18 2017 19:19 orvinreyes wrote:
At the rate things are going maybe it makes sense to predict outcomes using 6-month spon match statistics (5/17 to 10/17):


No, it doesn't work like that, we can not reliably predict future events based on data from the past, the future doesn't work like that.

You've just described whole of science. Saying it doesn't work is quite funny.

[image loading]

User was warned for this post
Ban Baal
EsportsJohn
Profile Blog Joined June 2012
United States4883 Posts
October 18 2017 14:05 GMT
#172
On October 18 2017 19:40 IntoTheStorm wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 18 2017 19:19 orvinreyes wrote:
At the rate things are going maybe it makes sense to predict outcomes using 6-month spon match statistics (5/17 to 10/17):


No, it doesn't work like that, we can not reliably predict future events based on data from the past, the future doesn't work like that.5


Lolwut
StrategyAllyssa Grey <3<3
chuDr3t4
Profile Joined April 2010
Russian Federation484 Posts
October 18 2017 14:05 GMT
#173
On October 18 2017 07:14 FlaShFTW wrote:
To everyone who's constantly moaning and complaining about a player upsetting another player because he wont have a chance against FlaSh in the finals: shut up. There is no "should have". There is only "happens". A player lost. Maybe he didn't have his A game that day. Maybe the other player was playing stellar that day. Who knows? But to comment that a player shouldn't have won because he's going to get owned further down the tourney, then why play at all? Why would hero even play this tournament knowing he has no chance against FlaSh? Why would 4/5ths of this field play if they knew they had no chance against FlaSh in a BOX down the line? That attitude is terrible, and it undermines the level of practice and skill that the players have had to develop to participate in this tournament. Shame on anyone who tries to belittle or put down players simply because they can't beat FlaSh in BoX.

amen
I live in Russia. I wear the fufaika, valenoks and the shapka-ushanka with the red star. I drink vodka straight from the samovar, and my riding bear plays on the balalaika.
Eywa-
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
Canada4876 Posts
October 18 2017 17:51 GMT
#174
I thought Soul key actually player really well, the 2-3 result is actually remarkable that every game he either had a scouting disadvantage with mirror builds or a build order disadvantage.
Being mannered is almost as important as winning. Almost...
L_Master
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
United States8017 Posts
October 18 2017 18:54 GMT
#175
On October 18 2017 23:05 EsportsJohn wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 18 2017 19:40 IntoTheStorm wrote:
On October 18 2017 19:19 orvinreyes wrote:
At the rate things are going maybe it makes sense to predict outcomes using 6-month spon match statistics (5/17 to 10/17):


No, it doesn't work like that, we can not reliably predict future events based on data from the past, the future doesn't work like that.5


Lolwut


I'm not sure what he is trying to say either. If he is just saying that you can predict, as in know for certain the outcome, then yea that's certainly true but also incredibly obvious. I think that's what he is trying to say because in his quote below he says "this team wins 80% of games past so it WILL win the finals".

Obviously, we can't use the word will, and I think that's all he is trying to say.

If he is trying to say that you can't use data to predict the likelihood of a particular outcome...then he is just off the rails crazy.

On October 18 2017 19:40 IntoTheStorm wrote:
This team wins 80% of games past so it will win in the finals. No, no, no. The team might win but it's not because of past victories, this is not a reliable point on which to base future predictions. Never has been, never will be.


No they won't win because of past victories. + Show Spoiler +
Well, at least considering what we are talking about. Obviously past victories can improve a player by increasing confidence, offering opportunites to improve strategy, etc. but that's not what this discussion is about.
In fairness, that's also incredibly obvious.

On the other hand we absolutely can use past results to predict the chances of a particular outcome. If Flash beat's Bisu 65% of the time, you're right it doesn't mean Flash WILL beat Bisu this time in a single game, a Bo5, or even a Bo99. What it does mean is that Flash's odds of winning against Bisu in a Bo5 are about 77%.

Interestingly, if you assume Flash's WR is an even 70% his odds of winning from Ro8 on out are about 60%. His chances of winning the tournament from the Ro16 are a little trickier because group stage is not a Bo5, but would likely be around 45%.

EffOrt and Soulkey Hwaiting!
TaardadAiel
Profile Joined May 2017
Bulgaria750 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-10-18 19:18:08
October 18 2017 18:55 GMT
#176
On October 18 2017 21:36 Skybrod wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 18 2017 20:12 IntoTheStorm wrote:
On October 18 2017 19:49 Skybrod wrote:
although if Larva sometime in the future amasses 1000 recorded games vs. Flash and 1000 vs. Bisu, maybe it will be possible then.


No, it would still not be possible, regardless of the sample size, 1000 or 10000 games vs a said player. You would only know that Larva has won like 40% of the past games vs Bisu.Or 50%, 60%, whatever. You can not predict the outcome of the next game based on that. It should be clear to everyone.
There is randomness, there are other things that affect how a player plays a game, there is health, there is attitude at the time of the game, there is mentality - too many factors to reliably predict anything. And this is the beauty of all competition - it is unpredictable, rare events do happen and influence the outcome of competition. This unpredictability is what bookmakers make their money off of.
For spectators like us, this quality of the games is amazing - to not know when the favorite will slip, this is what makes every sport (electronic of physical) attractive to me. This is why I watch muay thai matches - there is this dude, he is probably better but does it mean an auto win? No, the other guy is there to challenge and test him. He might connect with an elbow or a head kick, you never know.


I did not claim that one could predict the outcome of the next game, I explicitly stated that it is not possible, I was talking about the estimate of a player's perfomance in the long run, given sufficiently large sample size. That's how projections in baseball nowadays work. They project a player's whole season (400-500 plate appearances), although baseball is probably better suited for analysis than BW matches.

I would also disagree with you on your claim that prediction is not possible based on previous data. There's such thing as statistical learning which is applied to many spheres. E.g. if the size of tumor strongly correlates with the fact whether this tumor is malign or benign, we can make a sufficiently accurate prediction that if a person has a tumor of certain size, there's a good chance it will be malign/benign. Sorry for the offtop, just to illustrate the point.


This discussion is way too philosophical, to be honest. Not a bad thing, but all points are valid logically and impossible to prove, since at a certain level EVERYTHING is unpredictable, including my own involvement with this thread. A roof tile may fall on my head when I leave home. I really hope not, though.

EDIT: More seriously, though, statistics are of no practical use in this scenario. No progamer would go into the match unprepared because he has the better record against the opponent; I seriously doubt intimidation or complacency based on records is a factor for experienced players either. Besides betting with money on the line, there's no use for statistics for us fans. We can argue all we want and I for example will still have my chest pounding in every game Flash is playing from now on.

In my job we use statistical models all the time, mostly for risk stratification. And, of course, no one ever goes to work resigned to a negative outcome just because his last 100 patients survived, so this one won't.


WriterReV hwaiting!
Alejandrisha
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
United States6565 Posts
October 18 2017 19:00 GMT
#177
great series! zvz looks reeeally fricken hard O)_O
get rich or die mining
TL+ Member
L_Master
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
United States8017 Posts
October 18 2017 19:08 GMT
#178
On October 18 2017 20:12 IntoTheStorm wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 18 2017 19:49 Skybrod wrote:
although if Larva sometime in the future amasses 1000 recorded games vs. Flash and 1000 vs. Bisu, maybe it will be possible then.


No, it would still not be possible, regardless of the sample size, 1000 or 10000 games vs a said player. You would only know that Larva has won like 40% of the past games vs Bisu.Or 50%, 60%, whatever. You can not predict the outcome of the next game based on that. It should be clear to everyone.


It is clear to everyone...that you can make predictions about what will happen. In fact, making a prediction is simply saying "I think Bisu will win". I can do that with no evidence at all. Pretty hollow predication, but I could make it.

Again, if you mean know for certain who will win, obviously not. But no one in there right mind would ever think you could know for certain who was going to win based on past results.

What you CAN do, is state the probability of certain results. As outlined before, if Flash wins 80% of his games versus hero, his odds of winning a Bo5 against him are about 94%. This is where a large sample size can help increase confidence in those odds. If Flash had just appeared and won 4-1 against Bisu we wouldn't know if he just had the most amazing day of his life or is that was fairly typical play. But if Flash has played against Bisu for 100k games, then we have a reasonably sampling of conditions taking into account good days/bad days that tells us in general how Flash performs against Bisu. It says if both players are on an average day, this is the likelihood of winning.

As you have mentioned, there are good days and bad days; aka variation. If Flash is sick, he might lose; which we know is a possible outcome because Flash has a 23% chance of losing a Bo5 to Bisu if he wins 65% of their games.

You even know this intrinsically as you stated:

This is why I watch muay thai matches - there is this dude, he is probably better but does it mean an auto win?


You understand this concept intrinsically. t's no different that saying that FlaSh is a better starcraft player than Artosis. If I asked you think is going to win if Flash played Artosis, you would obviously answer FlaSh; same as you would if I offered you $100k if you correctly guess the winner of a Bo5 between FlaSh and Artosis.

The fact that you'd pick FlaSh means you think he is more likely to win. Well...why do you think that? Certainly you don't know anything about how ready Flash is to play right now or how his condition would be in two days, so you can't be making your decision based on that. What's left? Past results, performance, and gameplay. You've just used FlaSh's past starcraft to make a future decision about who is more likely to win and which player you should pick to optimize your chances to earn $100k.



EffOrt and Soulkey Hwaiting!
Skybrod
Profile Joined January 2010
Russian Federation19 Posts
October 18 2017 19:15 GMT
#179
On October 19 2017 03:54 L_Master wrote:

On the other hand we absolutely can use past results to predict the chances of a particular outcome. If Flash beat's Bisu 65% of the time, you're right it doesn't mean Flash WILL beat Bisu this time in a single game, a Bo5, or even a Bo99. What it does mean is that Flash's odds of winning against Bisu in a Bo5 are about 77%.

Interestingly, if you assume Flash's WR is an even 70% his odds of winning from Ro8 on out are about 60%. His chances of winning the tournament from the Ro16 are a little trickier because group stage is not a Bo5, but would likely be around 45%.



I guess what he is trying to say is that the outcome of a single game or a short series of games cannot be predicted accurately on the basis of the previous data, and that is true.
L_Master
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
United States8017 Posts
October 18 2017 19:17 GMT
#180
On October 19 2017 03:55 TaardadAiel wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 18 2017 21:36 Skybrod wrote:
On October 18 2017 20:12 IntoTheStorm wrote:
On October 18 2017 19:49 Skybrod wrote:
although if Larva sometime in the future amasses 1000 recorded games vs. Flash and 1000 vs. Bisu, maybe it will be possible then.


No, it would still not be possible, regardless of the sample size, 1000 or 10000 games vs a said player. You would only know that Larva has won like 40% of the past games vs Bisu.Or 50%, 60%, whatever. You can not predict the outcome of the next game based on that. It should be clear to everyone.
There is randomness, there are other things that affect how a player plays a game, there is health, there is attitude at the time of the game, there is mentality - too many factors to reliably predict anything. And this is the beauty of all competition - it is unpredictable, rare events do happen and influence the outcome of competition. This unpredictability is what bookmakers make their money off of.
For spectators like us, this quality of the games is amazing - to not know when the favorite will slip, this is what makes every sport (electronic of physical) attractive to me. This is why I watch muay thai matches - there is this dude, he is probably better but does it mean an auto win? No, the other guy is there to challenge and test him. He might connect with an elbow or a head kick, you never know.


I did not claim that one could predict the outcome of the next game, I explicitly stated that it is not possible, I was talking about the estimate of a player's perfomance in the long run, given sufficiently large sample size. That's how projections in baseball nowadays work. They project a player's whole season (400-500 plate appearances), although baseball is probably better suited for analysis than BW matches.

I would also disagree with you on your claim that prediction is not possible based on previous data. There's such thing as statistical learning which is applied to many spheres. E.g. if the size of tumor strongly correlates with the fact whether this tumor is malign or benign, we can make a sufficiently accurate prediction that if a person has a tumor of certain size, there's a good chance it will be malign/benign. Sorry for the offtop, just to illustrate the point.


This discussion is way too philosophical, to be honest. Not a bad thing, but all points are valid logically and impossible to prove, since at a certain level EVERYTHING is unpredictable, including my own involvement with this thread. A roof tile may fall on my head when I leave home. I really hope not, though.


This is actually a pretty argued topic.

One strong belief is that at a certain level everything is completely predictable and determined. If you know all the initial conditions of the universe of all particles, and apply the laws of physics to them, there is only one way they can behave and thus one possible outcome.
EffOrt and Soulkey Hwaiting!
L_Master
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
United States8017 Posts
October 18 2017 19:18 GMT
#181
On October 19 2017 04:15 Skybrod wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 19 2017 03:54 L_Master wrote:

On the other hand we absolutely can use past results to predict the chances of a particular outcome. If Flash beat's Bisu 65% of the time, you're right it doesn't mean Flash WILL beat Bisu this time in a single game, a Bo5, or even a Bo99. What it does mean is that Flash's odds of winning against Bisu in a Bo5 are about 77%.

Interestingly, if you assume Flash's WR is an even 70% his odds of winning from Ro8 on out are about 60%. His chances of winning the tournament from the Ro16 are a little trickier because group stage is not a Bo5, but would likely be around 45%.



I guess what he is trying to say is that the outcome of a single game or a short series of games cannot be predicted accurately on the basis of the previous data, and that is true.


I think that would just be a matter of semantics and what you consider to be "accurate" then. If accuracy means perfect predictions, then definitely not. But if accuracy is some agreed upon value, then it's possible to be accurate.
EffOrt and Soulkey Hwaiting!
TaardadAiel
Profile Joined May 2017
Bulgaria750 Posts
October 18 2017 19:25 GMT
#182
On October 19 2017 04:17 L_Master wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 19 2017 03:55 TaardadAiel wrote:
On October 18 2017 21:36 Skybrod wrote:
On October 18 2017 20:12 IntoTheStorm wrote:
On October 18 2017 19:49 Skybrod wrote:
although if Larva sometime in the future amasses 1000 recorded games vs. Flash and 1000 vs. Bisu, maybe it will be possible then.


No, it would still not be possible, regardless of the sample size, 1000 or 10000 games vs a said player. You would only know that Larva has won like 40% of the past games vs Bisu.Or 50%, 60%, whatever. You can not predict the outcome of the next game based on that. It should be clear to everyone.
There is randomness, there are other things that affect how a player plays a game, there is health, there is attitude at the time of the game, there is mentality - too many factors to reliably predict anything. And this is the beauty of all competition - it is unpredictable, rare events do happen and influence the outcome of competition. This unpredictability is what bookmakers make their money off of.
For spectators like us, this quality of the games is amazing - to not know when the favorite will slip, this is what makes every sport (electronic of physical) attractive to me. This is why I watch muay thai matches - there is this dude, he is probably better but does it mean an auto win? No, the other guy is there to challenge and test him. He might connect with an elbow or a head kick, you never know.


I did not claim that one could predict the outcome of the next game, I explicitly stated that it is not possible, I was talking about the estimate of a player's perfomance in the long run, given sufficiently large sample size. That's how projections in baseball nowadays work. They project a player's whole season (400-500 plate appearances), although baseball is probably better suited for analysis than BW matches.

I would also disagree with you on your claim that prediction is not possible based on previous data. There's such thing as statistical learning which is applied to many spheres. E.g. if the size of tumor strongly correlates with the fact whether this tumor is malign or benign, we can make a sufficiently accurate prediction that if a person has a tumor of certain size, there's a good chance it will be malign/benign. Sorry for the offtop, just to illustrate the point.


This discussion is way too philosophical, to be honest. Not a bad thing, but all points are valid logically and impossible to prove, since at a certain level EVERYTHING is unpredictable, including my own involvement with this thread. A roof tile may fall on my head when I leave home. I really hope not, though.


This is actually a pretty argued topic.

One strong belief is that at a certain level everything is completely predictable and determined. If you know all the initial conditions of the universe of all particles, and apply the laws of physics to them, there is only one way they can behave and thus one possible outcome.


That would be true if you had all the information, though. I meant it more practically. And regarding particle behavour, I've always thought Brownian motion is a stochastic process, implying random variables. But I'm no physicist or statistician or mathematician and this is getting really off-topic.
WriterReV hwaiting!
Skybrod
Profile Joined January 2010
Russian Federation19 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-10-18 19:30:25
October 18 2017 19:28 GMT
#183
On October 19 2017 04:18 L_Master wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 19 2017 04:15 Skybrod wrote:
On October 19 2017 03:54 L_Master wrote:

On the other hand we absolutely can use past results to predict the chances of a particular outcome. If Flash beat's Bisu 65% of the time, you're right it doesn't mean Flash WILL beat Bisu this time in a single game, a Bo5, or even a Bo99. What it does mean is that Flash's odds of winning against Bisu in a Bo5 are about 77%.

Interestingly, if you assume Flash's WR is an even 70% his odds of winning from Ro8 on out are about 60%. His chances of winning the tournament from the Ro16 are a little trickier because group stage is not a Bo5, but would likely be around 45%.



I guess what he is trying to say is that the outcome of a single game or a short series of games cannot be predicted accurately on the basis of the previous data, and that is true.


I think that would just be a matter of semantics and what you consider to be "accurate" then. If accuracy means perfect predictions, then definitely not. But if accuracy is some agreed upon value, then it's possible to be accurate.


What I mean is the same that you said: the result of flipping a coin 5 times in a row will fluctuate greatly from the expected result, even if this coin is "loaded" (like in Flash vs. Bisu probably). In other words, we should expect almost anything out of BO5, where Bisu and Flash play, but if they played another 1000 games, then we would expect Flash to be winning 55% of the time (or some other percentage).

Correct me, if I am wrong, but that's how I understand these percentages (my knowledge in this area is quite limited).
conTAgi0n
Profile Blog Joined November 2009
United States335 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-10-19 04:44:32
October 19 2017 04:21 GMT
#184
Well if we want to get really philosophical, one could argue from Hume's problem of induction that predictions of the future based on observations of the past are never logically valid.

Speaking a little more practically, taking the W/L percentage across 6 months of spon matches is meaningful and worthwhile, but is unreliable as an approximation of win probability for upcoming Bo5 ASL matches. There are just way too many relevant factors that it doesn't account for. Some basic examples:
  • A lot can change over 6 months. Players and player match ups are dynamic. Suppose player A has a 20:80 WL ratio against player B for the first 3 months, but an 80:20 WL ratio for the latter 3 months. Just looking at the overall 6 month ratio would suggest the players are dead even, which is misleading. Consider a somewhat extreme analogy: taking the average exchange rate of the American dollar against the Euro over the last 20 years would not be a good way to predict what the exchange rate will be next month.

  • Maps also matter a lot. Suppose player A has great winrates on the maps in the current map pool, but low winrates on the maps in the previous map pool. If player A mostly played against player B on those previous maps, then their WL ratio will likely make things look worse for player A than they really are.

  • Aggregate match-by-match WL statistics may not accurately reflect a player's performance in series play. Some players are better than others at planning for a BoX format, and some players have BoX winrates that are higher or lower than their winrates across individual matches might lead you to expect. (EDIT: I should mention that yes, I realize that a player having X% winrate across individual matches does not imply an X% winrate in Bo5 format. To state my point more precisely, the outcome of games in a BoX are not necessarily independent events, and therefore should not be calculated as Bernoulli trials.)

There are plenty of other factors you could come up with besides these as well. Point is, it's not merely a problem of sample sizes. This sort of data aggregation is just too coarse to serve as a surrogate for win probability in upcoming ASL matches.
EsportsJohn
Profile Blog Joined June 2012
United States4883 Posts
October 19 2017 04:39 GMT
#185
What world am I living in? Of course past statistics are useful for predicting the outcome of a match next week. People can and do successfully predict matches all the time.

What is going on with you guys? It's like the laws of physics have suddenly changed on TL.
StrategyAllyssa Grey <3<3
Eywa-
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
Canada4876 Posts
October 19 2017 05:04 GMT
#186
On October 19 2017 13:21 conTAgi0n wrote:
[*]Aggregate match-by-match WL statistics may not accurately reflect a player's performance in series play. Some players are better than others at planning for a BoX format, and some players have BoX winrates higher than their individual match winrates. For example, in ASLs 1-3 from the Round of 8 on, (T)Flash has won 18 out of 27 individual matches (67% winrate), but 6 out of 7 Bo5s (86% winrate).

Well, statistically speaking, your BoX winrate should always be further from the 50% line than your actual win rate, the phenomenon you're describing can be easily calculated as seen below... With a 67% win rate, you should win 78% of Bo5 series (I would argue that 7 is a low sample size, therefore 8% is still an acceptable margin for error).

WWL 1-0 67%
WWL 2-0 45% 1-1 44% 0-2 11%
WWL 3-0 30% 2-1 44% 1-2 22% 0-3 4%
WWL 3-1 29% 2-2 29% 1-3 7%
WWL 3-2 19% 2-3 10%

Win ~78%
Loss ~21%

I'm not saying that there is no such thing as someone who is good at BoX, but the stats that you bring don't prove that Flash is good at BoX, it just shows that he's performing at roughly the same rate as his normal win rate in BoX matches. It's possible that some players under perform in a BoX, throwing off the stats slightly, but those are likely to be the exception, not the rule.
Being mannered is almost as important as winning. Almost...
conTAgi0n
Profile Blog Joined November 2009
United States335 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-10-19 05:22:31
October 19 2017 05:14 GMT
#187
On October 19 2017 13:39 EsportsJohn wrote:
What world am I living in? Of course past statistics are useful for predicting the outcome of a match next week. People can and do successfully predict matches all the time.

What is going on with you guys? It's like the laws of physics have suddenly changed on TL.

Of course statistics are useful, but they are also frightfully easy to misuse. I'm sure you've heard the adage, "there are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics". You don't have to doubt the very concept of statistics to question the suitability of a simple 6 month WL ratio to serve as an estimate for outcomes of the upcoming matches. It's possible that a more fine-grained statistical analysis would be necessary for an acceptable level of reliability.

On October 19 2017 14:04 Eywa- wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 19 2017 13:21 conTAgi0n wrote:
[*]Aggregate match-by-match WL statistics may not accurately reflect a player's performance in series play. Some players are better than others at planning for a BoX format, and some players have BoX winrates higher than their individual match winrates. For example, in ASLs 1-3 from the Round of 8 on, (T)Flash has won 18 out of 27 individual matches (67% winrate), but 6 out of 7 Bo5s (86% winrate).

Well, statistically speaking, your BoX winrate should always be further from the 50% line than your actual win rate, the phenomenon you're describing can be easily calculated as seen below... With a 67% win rate, you should win 78% of Bo5 series (I would argue that 7 is a low sample size, therefore 8% is still an acceptable margin for error).

WWL 1-0 67%
WWL 2-0 45% 1-1 44% 0-2 11%
WWL 3-0 30% 2-1 44% 1-2 22% 0-3 4%
WWL 3-1 29% 2-2 29% 1-3 7%
WWL 3-2 19% 2-3 10%

Win ~78%
Loss ~21%

I'm not saying that there is no such thing as someone who is good at BoX, but the stats that you bring don't prove that Flash is good at BoX, it just shows that he's performing at roughly the same rate as his normal win rate in BoX matches. It's possible that some players under perform in a BoX, throwing off the stats slightly, but those are likely to be the exception, not the rule.

Damn you're fast. Yeah, I realized I explained my point poorly, and after I did the math I realized that I also picked a bad example, so I updated my post accordingly. Looks like I wasn't fast enough though. The point I was trying to make was that outcomes of individual matches in a BoX are not necessarily independent, and so they can't necessarily be calculated as Bernoulli trials, as you have done here (since independence of outcomes of individual trials is a fundamental assumption for Bernoulli trials).
Ej_
Profile Blog Joined January 2013
47656 Posts
October 19 2017 09:51 GMT
#188
Probability is a lie, you can't prove that I won't flip heads next 10000 tosses!
"Technically the dictionary has zero authority on the meaning or words" - Rodya
darktreb
Profile Joined May 2007
United States3016 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-10-19 10:09:01
October 19 2017 10:08 GMT
#189
On October 18 2017 11:37 L_Master wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 18 2017 08:33 SlayerS_BunkiE wrote:
I think if its against bisu, hero has as good a chance as soulkey. And bisu has a better chance against flash than most people wld like to admit.
And mind isn't a freebie for flash either. Would be a big upset but mind has a real shot.


Yep. I think in all honesty Bisu might have the best chance against Flash of anyone in this tournament. Certainly his chances are at a minimum at least as good as SK/EffOrt/Larva would have had.


Of course Bisu has the best chance against Flash of anyone left. I don't think it's even close. An elite Protoss will always have a better chance than Zerg or Terran players against Flash. It's like Shuttle once said, any good Protoss has a puncher's chance against Flash on any given day. And Bisu, while deservingly maligned for underperforming at times in individual leagues, is by far the best and most experienced player outside of Flash remaining.

Bisu "seems" to struggle against Flash, but that's largely relative to the general expectation that the best Protoss shouldn't struggle against Terran, and relative to the high expectations people have for Bisu, one of the most accomplished and talented players of all time. So his chances against Flash become underrated. Whereas with like Soulkey or Larva, since it's ZvT not PvT, and since they aren't held to as high of expectations, they become slightly overrated when it comes to chances vs Flash due to having had some memorable performances against him in the past.

Put another way, I would bet anything that if you forced him to be 100% honest, Flash would say he's more worried about facing Bisu than all the other remaining players put together.
ajmbek
Profile Joined November 2008
Italy460 Posts
October 19 2017 13:07 GMT
#190
On October 19 2017 18:51 Ej_ wrote:
Probability is a lie, you can't prove that I won't flip heads next 10000 tosses!


But I can what is the % that your coin is giving a fake result based on the results of thous 10.000 flips.
Sic iter ad astra
Normal
Please log in or register to reply.
Live Events Refresh
Stormgate Nexus
14:00
Stormgate Launch Days
BeoMulf291
TKL 214
IndyStarCraft 184
Liquipedia
[ Submit Event ]
Live Streams
Refresh
StarCraft 2
Reynor 453
SpeCial 127
goblin 20
uThermal 0
StarCraft: Brood War
Britney 43340
Bisu 3678
Shuttle 2361
Mini 874
Soulkey 490
ggaemo 430
Snow 307
ZerO 240
Soma 216
Hyuk 134
[ Show more ]
sSak 130
sorry 111
Leta 90
ToSsGirL 76
soO 49
Sharp 42
Nal_rA 40
Aegong 36
sas.Sziky 29
zelot 22
scan(afreeca) 18
ajuk12(nOOB) 16
Rock 16
Terrorterran 12
Backho 11
Sacsri 9
IntoTheRainbow 9
SilentControl 9
JulyZerg 8
ivOry 4
Stormgate
BeoMulf291
TKL 214
IndyStarCraft 184
DivinesiaTV 12
Dota 2
Gorgc6737
Dendi2011
Counter-Strike
pashabiceps515
flusha386
byalli313
fl0m203
Heroes of the Storm
XaKoH 100
Other Games
gofns7218
hiko883
Beastyqt538
crisheroes401
Hui .383
B2W.Neo367
DeMusliM339
KnowMe322
RotterdaM273
Fuzer 200
ArmadaUGS110
QueenE51
Trikslyr49
ZerO(Twitch)17
Organizations
StarCraft 2
WardiTV1352
Blizzard YouTube
StarCraft: Brood War
BSLTrovo
sctven
[ Show 16 non-featured ]
StarCraft 2
• poizon28 38
• davetesta19
• AfreecaTV YouTube
• intothetv
• Kozan
• IndyKCrew
• LaughNgamezSOOP
• Migwel
• sooper7s
StarCraft: Brood War
• FirePhoenix13
• BSLYoutube
• STPLYoutube
• ZZZeroYoutube
Dota 2
• WagamamaTV810
League of Legends
• Nemesis3024
• Jankos972
Upcoming Events
uThermal 2v2 Circuit
12m
DaveTesta Events
8h 12m
The PondCast
18h 12m
WardiTV Summer Champion…
19h 12m
Replay Cast
1d 8h
LiuLi Cup
1d 19h
uThermal 2v2 Circuit
1d 23h
RSL Revival
2 days
RSL Revival
2 days
uThermal 2v2 Circuit
2 days
[ Show More ]
CSO Cup
3 days
Sparkling Tuna Cup
3 days
uThermal 2v2 Circuit
3 days
Wardi Open
4 days
RotterdaM Event
5 days
RSL Revival
6 days
Liquipedia Results

Completed

ASL Season 20: Qualifier #2
FEL Cracow 2025
CC Div. A S7

Ongoing

Copa Latinoamericana 4
Jiahua Invitational
BSL 20 Team Wars
KCM Race Survival 2025 Season 3
BSL 21 Qualifiers
HCC Europe
BLAST Bounty Fall Qual
IEM Cologne 2025
FISSURE Playground #1
BLAST.tv Austin Major 2025
ESL Impact League Season 7
IEM Dallas 2025

Upcoming

ASL Season 20
CSLPRO Chat StarLAN 3
BSL Season 21
BSL 21 Team A
RSL Revival: Season 2
Maestros of the Game
SEL Season 2 Championship
WardiTV Summer 2025
uThermal 2v2 Main Event
Thunderpick World Champ.
MESA Nomadic Masters Fall
CS Asia Championships 2025
Roobet Cup 2025
ESL Pro League S22
StarSeries Fall 2025
FISSURE Playground #2
BLAST Open Fall 2025
BLAST Open Fall Qual
Esports World Cup 2025
BLAST Bounty Fall 2025
TLPD

1. ByuN
2. TY
3. Dark
4. Solar
5. Stats
6. Nerchio
7. sOs
8. soO
9. INnoVation
10. Elazer
1. Rain
2. Flash
3. EffOrt
4. Last
5. Bisu
6. Soulkey
7. Mini
8. Sharp
Sidebar Settings...

Advertising | Privacy Policy | Terms Of Use | Contact Us

Original banner artwork: Jim Warren
The contents of this webpage are copyright © 2025 TLnet. All Rights Reserved.