DISCLAIMER: Analysis below is not meant to convey any opinion of mine. You can interpret it however you see fit yourself.
I've basically used the KeSPA ranking from TLPD and calculated the percentage difference betwee first rank and second rank, first rank and third rank.
To summarise:
1st to 2nd rank difference 1. NaDa, 41.12%, Feb 2004 2. NaDa, 38.62%, Dec 2003 3. NaDa, 37.53%, Mar 2004 4. iloveoov, 36.61%, Jan 2005 5. iloveoov, 34.01%, Dec 2005 6. BoxeR, 31.58%, Jan 2002 7. NaDa, 31.06%, Jan 2004 8. iloveoov, 31.05%, Nov 2005 9. BoxeR, 29.28%, Oct 2002 10. sAviOr, 29.02%, Jul 2007 ... 12. Jaedong, 28.45%, Aug 2009
1st to 3rd rank difference 1. sAviOr, 92.19%, Mar 2007 2. NaDa, 79.62%, Dec 2003 3. NaDa, 79.55%, Feb 2004 4. NaDa, 70.89%, Mar 2004 5. NaDa, 68.72%, Jan 2004 6. sAviOr, 67.86%, Apr 2007 7. sAviOr, 62.40%, May 2007 8. sAviOr, 59.54%, Jun 2007 9. NaDa, 56.34%, Apr 2004 10. Jaedong, 55.90%, Aug 2009 ... 16. BoxeR, 48.21%, Dec 2002 ... 26. iloveoov, 39.71%, Feb 2005
For full image see inside spoiler - it's pretty big. + Show Spoiler +
Edit: calculating the standard deviation from the average of the top 30 is probably a more accurate measure, but will require more time. If someone could send me the database, the analysis would take a lot less time.
Cool write up. Wow Savoir had 92% more points than thrid place? Just shows how close everyone is right now (Bisu, JD, Flash, effort, maybe even iris) with JD's points only 28% more than thrid
On August 02 2009 03:18 Ideas wrote: oh man it's so cool how JD/flash/bisu/stork have been trading #1 KESPA for so long with each other (almost 2 years!).
its this crazy post-sAviOr era no bonjwa no order!
On August 02 2009 03:44 ghostWriter wrote: Holy shit 92.19% for savior? That's ridiculous...
Wow.... bonjwa...... but yea, JD isn't close to bonjwa yet imo, either we see JD dominant for a long period of times as well as winning of individual leagues and such, can we see him bonjwa....
Of course beating Bisu and Flash up many many times works too.... but not like a close record...
Cool beans, but I think the domination over the 2nd position means a lot more than domination over the 3rd. In Mar 2007 Savior and Nada were just the best players around, period. IMO these numbers reflect different eras and shouldn't really impact the Jaedong bonjwa debate (although I'm sure people will try to use this to hold off the inevitable).
if jaedong wins both individual leagues, he'll pull ahead by so much, he'll definitely be as dominant as, and in fact, probably more dominant than NaDa and sAviOr from a KeSPA ranking perspective. Two individual league is 1k points i think? That means he'll be over 4k points and bisu still around 2500, and the third place will still be around 2000.
This really goes to show how truly dominating players like NaDa and Savior were in their primes. These days everyone is hung up on ELO, but ELO has suffered from a lot of inflation (perhaps because there are more KeSPA sanctioned games today than in the past, thus providing more opportunities for top players to prove their skill?) over the years, so it fails to achieve it's goal of comparing the strengths of gamers relative to their respective eras.
Good job. really intresting to see that stats. I hope that will end the OMG 3000 POINTS JAEDONG BONJWA discussion to a rest. Atleast untill after proleague/OSL/MSL.
On August 02 2009 03:48 kanu_knl wrote: Does any one know the reason why Boxer's points jumped from 2398 in Jan-03 to 921.5 in Feb-03?
i'm gonna assume kespa made a huge change in their point system
I already answered it in the August '09 Kespa thread
Anyway, yes - they changed the system. Up until January '03 it was an all time ranking, players could only win points, but not lose any. In February '03 it became a 12 months ranking (point distribution for certain achievements might also have changed, no idea).
On August 02 2009 09:31 Fluffy Pingu wrote: if jaedong wins both individual leagues, he'll pull ahead by so much, he'll definitely be as dominant as, and in fact, probably more dominant than NaDa and sAviOr from a KeSPA ranking perspective. Two individual league is 1k points i think? That means he'll be over 4k points and bisu still around 2500, and the third place will still be around 2000.
This is true. You get a 500 pts bonus for winning a league I think it was... plus the fact that you won games against relatively tough opponents most likely. Huge boost.
Well we all know the bonjwas pretty much dominated. I think the most interesting thing about this graph is the fact that July held number 1 for a good year with a 28.1% 1st-2nd difference at one point. That's a lot better than I thought
I think I'll definitely update this with standard deviations when I have time. It is a much more accurate measure of how someone performs against the rest of the field (not just No. 2 or No. 3 player).
Crazy, Jaedong knocking off Nada's 1st-2nd differential, and coming up strong on the 1st-3rd differential as well.
Oh well, it's only to be expected when someone goes on monster runs in starleagues. He's got all the statistical makings of a bonjwa, he's just missing that feeling of dominance that I doubt will ever happen again.
wooah Jaedong with the biggest 1st to 2nd rank difference ever?! nice... I haven't been following starcraft long enough to call anyone the b-word, statistically however he is definitely up there now.
On September 01 2009 18:43 TwoToneTerran wrote: Crazy, Jaedong knocking off Nada's 1st-2nd differential, and coming up strong on the 1st-3rd differential as well.
Oh well, it's only to be expected when someone goes on monster runs in starleagues. He's got all the statistical makings of a bonjwa, he's just missing that feeling of dominance that I doubt will ever happen again.
Don't worry, I'm sure that after he gets his break and has everything with Hwaseung settled and has a decent pay, the feeling will come. In my opinion, his death face when he's really playing at his best is scarier than any bonjwa ever was.
On September 01 2009 18:43 TwoToneTerran wrote: Crazy, Jaedong knocking off Nada's 1st-2nd differential, and coming up strong on the 1st-3rd differential as well.
Oh well, it's only to be expected when someone goes on monster runs in starleagues. He's got all the statistical makings of a bonjwa, he's just missing that feeling of dominance that I doubt will ever happen again.
Don't worry, I'm sure that after he gets his break and has everything with Hwaseung settled and has a decent pay, the feeling will come. In my opinion, his death face when he's really playing at his best is scarier than any bonjwa ever was.
Nada definitely did. Nal_rA's MSL and OSL wins didn't even share any dates.
MSL: First game's date: 2003-04-17 - Last game's date: 2003-07-19 OSL: First game's date: 2003-12-12 - Last game's date: 2004-03-21
They were won really close together, though, which was a feat for Protoss at the time, especially considering no protoss had won the MSL before.
Nada's:
MSL: First game's date: 2002-10-15 - Last game's date: 2003-01-18 OSL: First game's date: 2002-11-15 - Last game's date: 2003-02-14
Amusingly, Nada beat Chojja both times for that. Does that mean Chojja is the only dual silver winner for one season, as well?
edit: Yep, I'm pretty sure he is. Stork had MSL silver before his OSL silver, Reach's MSL silver came at the same time as his OSL gold (another impressive feat, but not quite as good as Nada's).
So, Nada is the only dual gold winner, while Chojja is the only dual silver winner, both in the same season. Talk about a dominant pair for that brief period.
On June 10 2010 04:43 jalstar wrote: % difference between 1st and 2nd
1. Jaedong, 68.26%, Nov 2009 2. Jaedong, 63.30%, Oct 2009 3. Jaedong, 55.33%, Dec 2009 4. Jaedong, 54.77%, Sep 2009 5. Flash, 41.91%, Jun 2010 6. NaDa, 41.12%, Feb 2004 7. NaDa, 38.62%, Dec 2003 8. NaDa, 37.53%, Mar 2004 9. Flash, 37.27%, May 2010 10. iloveoov, 36.61%, Jan 2005
I expect August/September 2010 to show up there. Remember that Kespa rank is a past year performance measurement. The % difference between 1st and 2nd will jump sharply when the Bacchus '09 win falls out of Jaedong's record.
Jaedong had such a huge lead in those months because at the time, his closest competitor in game quality, Bisu, had a nasty habit of dropping out of one league or another in the group stages.
The late 09 Kespa ranks reflect mid 2009 when everyone was horribly inconsistent. Leta, Stork, Flash, Bisu, Effort, and fantasy were considered to be the top players besides Jaedong, yet the three finalists besides Jaedong were Yarnc, Calm, and Kwanro.
On June 10 2010 05:04 jalstar wrote: The late 09 Kespa ranks reflect mid 2009 when everyone was horribly inconsistent. Leta, Stork, Flash, Bisu, Effort, and fantasy were considered to be the top players besides Jaedong, yet the three finalists besides Jaedong were Yarnc, Calm, and Kwanro.
Yeah. That was really a rank that was created by horrible maps. In generally the bigger the difference in the rank does not mean tat one was playing very good but far more reasonable would be to say tere were no good opponents. The recent starleagues were mosty crap(movie, yarnc, kwanro anyone?) even in times of the protoss dominance I thought the individuals sucked although they had an ridicoulusly high skill level. Now all Ps suck at pvz even more than usual and most real contenders fall out far too early(stork bisu fantasy) and leave either Flash or JD to be taking the title. Say what you whant but the last MSL and OSL finals both had a low display of skill. Getting run over by zerglings so easily? Trying to rush Hive without units? And loosing to the same build 3 times in a row? Is that the best Starcraft has to offer?
On August 02 2009 03:08 xMiragex wrote: where is bisu!? /end bisu fanboy troll comment
nice to see these numbers
see inside the spoiler tag. but to answer your question: Bisu is not even close!
I would kindly disagree with that sir. Bisu may not have had perennial dominance, but he saved sc. One of the matchups was broken and he fixed it. Without him Flash and Jaedong wouldnt exist because nobody would follow sc anymore due to imba. Now being rebalanced bc of BISU we still get epic games. / End Bisu fanboy rage
On August 02 2009 03:08 xMiragex wrote: where is bisu!? /end bisu fanboy troll comment
nice to see these numbers
see inside the spoiler tag. but to answer your question: Bisu is not even close!
I would kindly disagree with that sir. Bisu may not have had perennial dominance, but he saved sc. One of the matchups was broken and he fixed it. Without him Flash and Jaedong wouldnt exist because nobody would follow sc anymore due to imba. Now being rebalanced bc of BISU we still get epic games. / End Bisu fanboy rage
I think he was saying that numbers wise bisu was not close.
not that bisu was a worthless player to starcraft
he is a good player to have on FPL antiteam though, just saying
On August 25 2017 13:42 danielias wrote: Can someone add Flash stats?
If it is the top spots you are interested in, Jaedong's points in November 2009 has the highest discrepancy between itself, and the points of the next highest player on the rankings (Bisu). Flash's points in November 2010 has the highest discrepancy between itself, and the points of the third highest player on the rankings (FanTaSy).
When Jaedong was in his prime, there was a severe shortage of players who were truly great in both the individual leagues, and the ProLeague, both of which were vital in terms of getting a good placement in the KeSPA rankings. There was nobody who was consistently challenging him for the top spot across all platforms.
In 2010, despite Flash having a better much performance than Jaedong did in 2009, the fact that Jaedong was reaching all those finals, while also being the second best performing player in the ProLeague, made Jaedong the only player in history to have over 3000 points in the KeSPA rankings and not be ranked first in the standings. It is easier to tell how further ahead Flash was ahead of everyone else by checking the difference between him, and the third highest ranked player on the KeSPA rankings at the time.
On August 25 2017 13:42 danielias wrote: Can someone add Flash stats?
If it is the top spots you are interested in, Jaedong's points in November 2009 has the highest discrepancy between itself, and the points of the next highest player on the rankings (Bisu). Flash's points in November 2010 has the highest discrepancy between itself, and the points of the third highest player on the rankings (FanTaSy).
When Jaedong was in his prime, there was a severe shortage of players who were truly great in both the individual leagues, and the ProLeague, both of which were vital in terms of getting a good placement in the KeSPA rankings. There was nobody who was consistently challenging him for the top spot across all platforms.
In 2010, despite Flash having a better much performance than Jaedong did in 2009, the fact that Jaedong was reaching all those finals, while also being the second best performing player in the ProLeague, made Jaedong the only player in history to have over 3000 points in the KeSPA rankings and not be ranked first in the standings. It is easier to tell how further ahead Flash was ahead of everyone else by checking the difference between him, and the third highest ranked player on the KeSPA rankings at the time.
On August 25 2017 13:42 danielias wrote: Can someone add Flash stats?
If it is the top spots you are interested in, Jaedong's points in November 2009 has the highest discrepancy between itself, and the points of the next highest player on the rankings (Bisu). Flash's points in November 2010 has the highest discrepancy between itself, and the points of the third highest player on the rankings (FanTaSy).
When Jaedong was in his prime, there was a severe shortage of players who were truly great in both the individual leagues, and the ProLeague, both of which were vital in terms of getting a good placement in the KeSPA rankings. There was nobody who was consistently challenging him for the top spot across all platforms.
In 2010, despite Flash having a better much performance than Jaedong did in 2009, the fact that Jaedong was reaching all those finals, while also being the second best performing player in the ProLeague, made Jaedong the only player in history to have over 3000 points in the KeSPA rankings and not be ranked first in the standings. It is easier to tell how further ahead Flash was ahead of everyone else by checking the difference between him, and the third highest ranked player on the KeSPA rankings at the time.
Thanks for the info.
What do you think about savior stats?
The comparison is less straight forward if you include sAviOr into the conversation. Jaedong and Flash had both their career peaks under very similar set of circumstances, and the way KeSPA allocated points was basically the same in 2009, and 2010, unless I am mistaken.
However, sAviOr reigned supreme during in era where ProLeague schedule was not as extensive, and KeSPA had a different formula for allocating their points. As far as I know, the reason why sAviOr failed to secure the number one spot in December 2006, despite having excellent performances in the ProLeague, and the MSL, was because KeSPA used reward more points for winning the OGN StarLeague, than for winning the MSL (I think their reasoning was because OGN StarLeague had a bigger overall prize pool back then).
I think KeSPA rankings had the decay system for quite some time, where results that's over a year old are no longer counted. So let's compare their results by a time frame of one year's worth of competition.
The ProLeague schedule was vastly different for a player competing in 2006, and a player competing in 2009. For example. Jaedong was the best performing ProLeague player with 17 ProLeague victories (sAviOr was the second best with 16 ProLeague victories) for the 2006 season, however, that performance would barely make the top 40, in the more recent 2008/2009, or 2009/2010 seasons. It simply is not a fair comparison.
The only thing that's consistent is that sAviOr, Jaedong, and Flash all competed in six individual leagues that took place over a year long period, half of them being the OGN StarLeague, and half of them being the MSL. Let's ignore the fact that during sAviOr's era, MSL had a smaller overall prize pool than the OGN StarLeague.
sAviOr: 3 championships out of 6 participations
Shinhan OGN StarLeague S1: Eliminated in the offline qualifiers Pringles MSL S1: 1st Shinhan OGN StarLeague S2: Eliminated in the offline qualifiers Pringles MSL S2: 1st Shinhan OGN StarLeague S3: 1st GomTV MSL S1: 2nd
Jaedong: 3 championships out of 6 participations
Lost Saga MSL: Round of 32 Batoo OGN StarLeague: 1st Bacchus 2009 OGN StarLeague: 1st Avalon MSL: Round of 4 EVER 2009 OGN StarLeague: Round of 8 NATE MSL: 1st
Flash: 4 championships out of 6 participations
EVER 2009 OGN StarLeague: 1st NATE MSL: 2nd Korean Air OGN StarLeague: 2nd Hana Daetoo MSL: 1st Big File MSL: 1st Korean Air OGN StarLeague: 2nd
What Flash achieved during his peak is objectively superior to what both sAviOr and Jaedong achieved within the same space of time. There is a reason why Jaedong stayed around 3,000 points during his peak, while Flash stayed around 4,000 points during his. The only reason why Jaedong had a large difference between himself, and the second best player on the KeSPA rankings, isn't because Jaedong peak was more impressive than Flash's peak, it was because Jaedong was a much more competent supporting cast to Flash's tales of glory, than Bisu was for Jaedong's.
In the same vein, the huge difference in the number of points sAviOr had compared to Iris, who was the the third highest ranked player in March 2007, can be attributed partly to sAviOr's excellence, and partly because the third best player at the time in terms of KeSPA ranking points simply wasn't all that impressive compared to some of the other third ranked players over the years.
Take a look at these hypothetical situations, for example:
There are 6 tournaments. You get 10 points for winning, and 5 points for placing second.
Situation 1
Tournament 1: Player A beats Player B Tournament 2: Player A beats Player B Tournament 3: Player A beats Player B Tournament 4: Player A beats Player B Tournament 5: Player A beats Player B Tournament 6: Player A beats Player B
Player A has 60 points, Player B has 30 points. Player A has 100% more points than the second best player.
Situation 2
Tournament 1: Player A beats Player C Tournament 2: Player A beats Player D Tournament 3: Player E beats Player A Tournament 4: Player F beats Player G Tournament 5: Player H beats Player I Tournament 6: Player J beats Player K
Player A has 25 points, Player E has 10 points. Player A has 150% more points than the second best player.
I would personally say that Player A has done way better in Situation 1, but by the virtue of everybody else sucking so much and being one hit wonders, Player A actually has 150% more points than the second best player despite only winning two tournaments, instead of winning them all.
On August 25 2017 13:42 danielias wrote: Can someone add Flash stats?
If it is the top spots you are interested in, Jaedong's points in November 2009 has the highest discrepancy between itself, and the points of the next highest player on the rankings (Bisu). Flash's points in November 2010 has the highest discrepancy between itself, and the points of the third highest player on the rankings (FanTaSy).
When Jaedong was in his prime, there was a severe shortage of players who were truly great in both the individual leagues, and the ProLeague, both of which were vital in terms of getting a good placement in the KeSPA rankings. There was nobody who was consistently challenging him for the top spot across all platforms.
In 2010, despite Flash having a better much performance than Jaedong did in 2009, the fact that Jaedong was reaching all those finals, while also being the second best performing player in the ProLeague, made Jaedong the only player in history to have over 3000 points in the KeSPA rankings and not be ranked first in the standings. It is easier to tell how further ahead Flash was ahead of everyone else by checking the difference between him, and the third highest ranked player on the KeSPA rankings at the time.
Thanks for the info.
What do you think about savior stats?
The comparison is less straight forward if you include sAviOr into the conversation. Jaedong and Flash had both their career peaks under very similar set of circumstances, and the way KeSPA allocated points was basically the same in 2009, and 2010, unless I am mistaken.
However, sAviOr reigned supreme during in era where ProLeague schedule was not as extensive, and KeSPA had a different formula for allocating their points. As far as I know, the reason why sAviOr failed to secure the number one spot in December 2006, despite having excellent performances in the ProLeague, and the MSL, was because KeSPA used reward more points for winning the OGN StarLeague, than for winning the MSL (I think their reasoning was because OGN StarLeague had a bigger overall prize pool back then).
I think KeSPA rankings had the decay system for quite some time, where results that's over a year old are no longer counted. So let's compare their results by a time frame of one year's worth of competition.
The ProLeague schedule was vastly different for a player competing in 2006, and a player competing in 2009. For example. Jaedong was the best performing ProLeague player with 17 ProLeague victories (sAviOr was the second best with 16 ProLeague victories) for the 2006 season, however, that performance would barely make the top 40, in the more recent 2008/2009, or 2009/2010 seasons. It simply is not a fair comparison.
The only thing that's consistent is that sAviOr, Jaedong, and Flash all competed in six individual leagues that took place over a year long period, half of them being the OGN StarLeague, and half of them being the MSL. Let's ignore the fact that during sAviOr's era, MSL had a smaller overall prize pool than the OGN StarLeague.
sAviOr: 3 championships out of 6 participations
Shinhan OGN StarLeague S1: Eliminated in the offline qualifiers Pringles MSL S1: 1st Shinhan OGN StarLeague S2: Eliminated in the offline qualifiers Pringles MSL S2: 1st Shinhan OGN StarLeague S3: 1st GomTV MSL S1: 2nd
Jaedong: 3 championships out of 6 participations
Lost Saga MSL: Round of 32 Batoo OGN StarLeague: 1st Bacchus 2009 OGN StarLeague: 1st Avalon MSL: Round of 4 EVER 2009 OGN StarLeague: Round of 8 NATE MSL: 1st
Flash: 4 championships out of 6 participations
EVER 2009 OGN StarLeague: 1st NATE MSL: 2nd Korean Air OGN StarLeague: 2nd Hana Daetoo MSL: 1st Big File MSL: 1st Korean Air OGN StarLeague: 2nd
What Flash achieved during his peak is objectively superior to what both sAviOr and Jaedong achieved within the same space of time. There is a reason why Jaedong stayed around 3,000 points during his peak, while Flash stayed around 4,000 points during his. The only reason why Jaedong had a large difference between himself, and the second best player on the KeSPA rankings, isn't because Jaedong peak was more impressive than Flash's peak, it was because Jaedong was a much more competent supporting cast to Flash's tales of glory, than Bisu was for Jaedong's.
In the same vein, the huge difference in the number of points sAviOr had compared to Iris, who was the the third highest ranked player in March 2007, can be attributed partly to sAviOr's excellence, and partly because the third best player at the time in terms of KeSPA ranking points simply wasn't all that impressive compared to some of the other third ranked players over the years.
Take a look at these hypothetical situations, for example:
There are 6 tournaments. You get 10 points for winning, and 5 points for placing second.
Situation 1
Tournament 1: Player A beats Player B Tournament 2: Player A beats Player B Tournament 3: Player A beats Player B Tournament 4: Player A beats Player B Tournament 5: Player A beats Player B Tournament 6: Player A beats Player B
Player A has 60 points, Player B has 30 points. Player A has 100% more points than the second best player.
Situation 2
Tournament 1: Player A beats Player C Tournament 2: Player A beats Player D Tournament 3: Player E beats Player A Tournament 4: Player F beats Player G Tournament 5: Player H beats Player I Tournament 6: Player J beats Player K
Player A has 25 points, Player E has 10 points. Player A has 150% more points than the second best player.
I would personally say that Player A has done way better in Situation 1, but by the virtue of everybody else sucking so much and being one hit wonders, Player A actually has 150% more points than the second best player despite only winning two tournaments, instead of winning them all.
Wow, thank you so much, such an exquisite writing and analysis. You need a Blog to share ideas!
I was reading your reply with this music
I think savior and flash are the greatest sc players of all time.
EPT![[image loading]](http://img219.imageshack.us/img219/410/kespa.png)
