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Data analysis on 70 million replays - Page 4

Forum Index > BW General
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Soft_General_5023
Profile Joined December 2023
156 Posts
Last Edited: 2025-11-23 17:35:16
November 23 2025 17:34 GMT
#61
On November 23 2025 09:47 tankgirl wrote:
just give scv 40 hp already

how many more decades we gotta keep doing this?


that would be funny, snow would win pvt even before reavers
Soft_General_5023
Profile Joined December 2023
156 Posts
Last Edited: 2025-11-23 17:35:02
November 23 2025 17:34 GMT
#62
.
doktordingerdonger
Profile Joined October 2025
143 Posts
November 24 2025 02:02 GMT
#63
Here is the deal you guys all fail to see: Every race on the backfoot the first 15 minutes are playing exactly those builds to get to the position in order to have a higher winrate the next 15 minutes.

You think zerg likes to go third base and then defend with mutas and then go lurkers, with every little fuckup being GG?

This being said, Tesagi across the board.
Kraekkling
Profile Blog Joined June 2007
764 Posts
Last Edited: 2025-11-24 13:40:21
November 24 2025 03:05 GMT
#64
This being said, Tesagi across the board

I mean that's not a wrong conclusion, but I think it shouldn't be the last one to draw from all of this.

Something I repeatedly think about is how the in-game timer was the most influential change which BW:Remastered gave to the game. It was not the HD graphics, neither the ladder system, even though both were great additions!

The in-game timer seems like such a tiny and trivial addition, but it gave us a most important tool: measurability.

Suddenly, everyone was able to consistently measure and track their progress. Benchmarks for builds were developed. "With this build, you need to hit X supply at Y minutes." It became much more obvious that specific spawns allowed to hit certain timings, while others didn't, which made us update the left-side mineral lines.

Because build benchmarks became targets, optimizations everywhere increased. I think it's hard to overstate how much the general skill level improved because these things became easily quantifiable. Some optimizations even led to completely new developments in the meta game in some matchups.

Coming back to Tesagi, balance and maps: there's a lot of variance all around, both for maps but also for specific spawns. Tiny changes can adjust or flip the balance. If we can reliably measure and understand such effects, we will also be able control them.
(*^^)(^*)
Jealous
Profile Blog Joined December 2011
10403 Posts
Last Edited: 2025-11-24 03:18:01
November 24 2025 03:17 GMT
#65
AFAIK this info was available well before RM. In fact, there were timestamps in Liquipedia for certain builds like TvZ 3 siege 1 vessel push before RM IIRC. Yes, it made the timer more readily available for use, but if anything it just made noobs like us foreigners have easier tools to get better rather than changing pro meta IMO. Maybe I missed some news in the wake of the timer, but its introduction didn't feel revolutionary to me on the pro level, just the level with which we plebs can understand and measure things they already seemed to know?
"The right to vote is only the oar of the slaveship, I wanna be free." -- бум бум сучка!
Kraekkling
Profile Blog Joined June 2007
764 Posts
November 24 2025 03:55 GMT
#66
A specific example would be the evolution of many builds for Zerg, which were previously deemed suboptimal due to lost larva. Which overall was downstream of mining optimizations. There's a nice thread by iopq on this. Since the availability of such builds shifted, Terrans had to adjust how often they 8-raxed. I'm sure there are other examples.

But it should be already sufficient to consider the fact that it took us a stupidly long time to notice and act on mining differences between left- and right-side spawns.

Still, this is kinda beneath my main point, which is that it's useful to be able to measure and quantify things that are relevant for balance.
(*^^)(^*)
Jealous
Profile Blog Joined December 2011
10403 Posts
November 24 2025 04:48 GMT
#67
On November 24 2025 12:55 Kraekkling wrote:
A specific example would be the evolution of many builds for Zerg, which were previously deemed suboptimal due to lost larva. Which overall was downstream of mining optimizations. There's a nice thread by iopq on this. Since the availability of such builds shifted, Terrans had to adjust how often they 8-raxed. I'm sure there are other examples.

But it should be already sufficient to consider the fact that it took us a stupidly long time to notice and act on mining differences between left- and right-side spawns.

Still, this is kinda beneath my main point, which is that it's useful to be able to measure and quantify things that are relevant for balance.

I've seen the iopq thread so I know what you're talking about. And true, mineral boosting and L v R became better understood after RM. Thanks for elaborating!
"The right to vote is only the oar of the slaveship, I wanna be free." -- бум бум сучка!
RJBTVYOUTUBE
Profile Joined December 2023
Netherlands1328 Posts
November 24 2025 10:44 GMT
#68
Game timers are most influential because plugins were banned from competition. it allowed much greater precision in planning out algorithms because there was now certainty in replicatability from practice to competition. Also over time as pros play more they just learned and experimented more as more time allows for more of both. We also must not forget Remastered came out in august 2017. ASL season 1 was in June 2016. The ASL era has been around for almost as long as Kespa existed. During the first 7 years of Kespa they were still figuring out the core meta. P and Z were played in ways that would just not work in today's state of play.
JDON MY SOUL!
FinalGame
Profile Joined March 2013
Canada28 Posts
November 24 2025 12:46 GMT
#69
The in-game timer seems like such a tiny and trivial addition, but it gave us a most important tool: measurability.

Suddenly, everyone was able to consistently measure and track their progress. Benchmarks for builds were developed. "With this build, you need to hit X supply at Y minutes." It became much more obvious that specific spawns allowed to hit certain timings, while others didn't, which made us update the left-side mineral lines.


Hopefully I snipped correctly, if not my bad.

Man back when I used to play pre-timer I had gotten so accustomed to playing so often my track of measurement for builds back then (at least very early game) was how far along the music was while in-game vs my opponent, lol.
Stuff goes here! Who would've thought!
Dakota_Fanning *
Profile Joined January 2008
Hungary2371 Posts
Last Edited: 2025-11-24 19:36:00
November 24 2025 19:29 GMT
#70
Enthused by this nice analysis today I also added 1v1, 2v2, 3v3 and 4v4 location stats to all maps over RepMastered. These contain games of all races, and all games (not just Blizzard ladder games).

For example 투혼 1.4 1v1 locations:

1 v 4, 880k games, 52% win ratio
1 v 8, 879k games, 52% win ratio
4 v 11, 879k games, 50% win ratio
1 v 11, 877k games, 52% win ratio
4 v 8, 877k games, 49% win ratio
8 v 11, 872k games, 50% win ratio

Based on this data, top right location (1) is the favored, and bottom right (4) is the most unfavored location.

Polypoid 1.75 as an another example seems more balanced regarding starting locations.
And Eclipse 1.2 also seems almost perfectly balanced in this regard.
https://repmastered.icza.net
Kraekkling
Profile Blog Joined June 2007
764 Posts
November 24 2025 22:08 GMT
#71
Very nice, this is also interesting data I think.

Although I'm not fully sure how to best interpret when it's averaged down to a single number.

What I mean is that if split by matchup, there would be differences which we don't see otherwise. For example, on Eclipse 1.2

TvT: top better
TvZ: about even
TvP: top better
ZvZ: bottom better
ZvP: bottom better
ZvT: about even
PvP: even
PvZ: bottom better
PvT: top better

but if average it all out, it's again "balanced"
(*^^)(^*)
Jealous
Profile Blog Joined December 2011
10403 Posts
Last Edited: 2025-11-25 08:41:46
November 25 2025 01:56 GMT
#72
On November 25 2025 04:29 Dakota_Fanning wrote:
Enthused by this nice analysis today I also added 1v1, 2v2, 3v3 and 4v4 location stats to all maps over RepMastered. These contain games of all races, and all games (not just Blizzard ladder games).

For example 투혼 1.4 1v1 locations:

1 v 4, 880k games, 52% win ratio
1 v 8, 879k games, 52% win ratio
4 v 11, 879k games, 50% win ratio
1 v 11, 877k games, 52% win ratio
4 v 8, 877k games, 49% win ratio
8 v 11, 872k games, 50% win ratio

Based on this data, top right location (1) is the favored, and bottom right (4) is the most unfavored location.

Polypoid 1.75 as an another example seems more balanced regarding starting locations.
And Eclipse 1.2 also seems almost perfectly balanced in this regard.

Thanks for this, I had just asked for pairwise analysis of spawn locations in another thread, so either this is a fortuitous coincidence or I should be thanking you for looking into it after seeing it

Unsurprised to see 1 v 4 be the most popular and 8 vs 11 the least given that one ladder bug we had! I said something dumb; FS 1 V 11.
"The right to vote is only the oar of the slaveship, I wanna be free." -- бум бум сучка!
XenOsky
Profile Blog Joined March 2008
Chile2358 Posts
Last Edited: 2025-11-25 02:04:46
November 25 2025 02:04 GMT
#73
protoss players are just bad and can't win asl based on their lack of skill and inteligence
...

..

.

.


wait...
ἡ τῆς Νεμέσεως τάξις
Kraekkling
Profile Blog Joined June 2007
764 Posts
Last Edited: 2025-11-25 02:53:09
November 25 2025 02:52 GMT
#74
Unsurprised to see 1 v 4 be the most popular and 8 vs 11 the least given that one ladder bug we had!

what was the ladder bug?
(*^^)(^*)
doktordingerdonger
Profile Joined October 2025
143 Posts
November 25 2025 03:09 GMT
#75
On November 25 2025 11:04 XenOsky wrote:
protoss players are just bad and can't win asl based on their lack of skill and inteligence
...

..

.

.


wait...


Them not winning balances out protoss being easy.

Math checks out
XenOsky
Profile Blog Joined March 2008
Chile2358 Posts
November 25 2025 03:14 GMT
#76
On November 25 2025 12:09 doktordingerdonger wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 25 2025 11:04 XenOsky wrote:
protoss players are just bad and can't win asl based on their lack of skill and inteligence
...

..

.

.


wait...


Them not winning balances out protoss being easy.

Math checks out



says terran user
ἡ τῆς Νεμέσεως τάξις
Dakota_Fanning *
Profile Joined January 2008
Hungary2371 Posts
November 25 2025 07:45 GMT
#77
On November 25 2025 07:08 Kraekkling wrote:
Very nice, this is also interesting data I think.

Although I'm not fully sure how to best interpret when it's averaged down to a single number.

What I mean is that if split by matchup, there would be differences which we don't see otherwise. For example, on Eclipse 1.2

TvT: top better
TvZ: about even
TvP: top better
ZvZ: bottom better
ZvP: bottom better
ZvT: about even
PvP: even
PvZ: bottom better
PvT: top better

but if average it all out, it's again "balanced"


Of course these location stats are not to be taken for granted. Matchup plays a huge role when determining the actual win rate for a given location combination. But I think it's still interesting: a well balanced map should have a 50% win rate overall (overall meaning averaging games of all matchups) for all location combinations, or at least target to get close to it as much as possible, unless separate map versions are made for different matchups.

Also this locations stats addition to RepMastered are not just for 1v1 games and are not just for ladder maps: they are for all maps and for 1v1, 2v2, 3v3 and 4v4. A lot of us play regularly or occasionally team games, often with and against random races, and this might give a clue what to expect on start.
https://repmastered.icza.net
Cryoc
Profile Joined July 2011
Germany914 Posts
November 25 2025 07:48 GMT
#78
On November 25 2025 11:52 Kraekkling wrote:
Show nested quote +
Unsurprised to see 1 v 4 be the most popular and 8 vs 11 the least given that one ladder bug we had!

what was the ladder bug?

For some time during remastered, the starting locations were no longer random after a Blizzard patch. But I am pretty sure, it was always 1 vs 11 on FS (location 1 vs location 2).
http://www.twitch.tv/cryoc
iopq
Profile Blog Joined March 2009
United States1187 Posts
November 25 2025 07:57 GMT
#79
On November 24 2025 02:34 Soft_General_5023 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 23 2025 09:47 tankgirl wrote:
just give scv 40 hp already

how many more decades we gotta keep doing this?


that would be funny, snow would win pvt even before reavers

What's wrong with that? Other races can't just repair one defensive building forever and hold a much larger army. You act like not losing for the first ~6 minutes should be a given if you play Terran
Jealous
Profile Blog Joined December 2011
10403 Posts
November 25 2025 08:36 GMT
#80
On November 25 2025 16:48 Cryoc wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 25 2025 11:52 Kraekkling wrote:
Unsurprised to see 1 v 4 be the most popular and 8 vs 11 the least given that one ladder bug we had!

what was the ladder bug?

For some time during remastered, the starting locations were no longer random after a Blizzard patch. But I am pretty sure, it was always 1 vs 11 on FS (location 1 vs location 2).

Correct, misspoke, my bad. It was indeed 1 vs. 11 on FS.
"The right to vote is only the oar of the slaveship, I wanna be free." -- бум бум сучка!
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