|
Renamed To ASL20 General Discussion.
WARNING: Contains Spoilers |
With the Ro24 over, what did you think of it? Any groups caught your interest? A map you loved or hated? A player who surprised you or shocked you? What do you think the Ro16 groups will look like? anything about the Ro24 you thought was interesting, talk about it here!
some of my thoughts
+ Show Spoiler +
For me Bisu showed up a bit more well put together than in previous seasons. It might be too early to call but he seemed to deal with Speed quite well, albeit Speed put himself into a difficult situation with his choice of BO. Word is he increased the size of his BW client window, and that he might have switched to a wireless mouse on Flash's advice. Could this have been holding him back for all these past seasons? I am really curiois to find out in the Ro16 where he will be tested for real. High expectations from him which I usually don't have.
similarly SoMa looked in great shape. His multitasking, macro, and micro all looked superb in his two games. whichever group he goes into, probably as one of the last to be picked, i am confident he will get out and go to Ro8. possibly at the expense of a first seed in that group.
Jaedong likewise looked more solid. decisive and confident. Two things he seemed to be lacking in prior years when you could see self-doubt in his play. He even talked about his self-doubt on stream and in interviews. If regaining his confidence is what is required for him to ascend yet again, I hope this season is the one where he stays confident for long enough to get far into the tournament.
Calm and Hyun I expected to show up out of shape because their activity was very low going into the qualifiers, and remained low after. I was not wrong. Their play looked uninspired and sloppy. And if there is one thing you can't be in ZvZ it is being sloppy. ZvZ in particular exposes your discipline and physical preparedness. Once again feels like their spots in ASL were wasted on them. Would have much rather seen two players who put in more work to show up in peak condition. Harsh words but sadly it is true.
|
One question first: do we need spoilers here ?
|
On August 28 2025 21:41 prosatan wrote:
One question first: do we need spoilers here ?
Surely not. Who in their right mind would open this thread if they're trying to avoid spoilers?
|
On August 28 2025 21:50 pseudosignal wrote:Show nested quote +On August 28 2025 21:41 prosatan wrote:
One question first: do we need spoilers here ? Surely not. Who in their right mind would open this thread if they're trying to avoid spoilers?
agree 100% pseudosignal!
ok then: i am sad for hero , happy for JD and Bisu.
I knew Royal won't make it and i wouldn't bet any money on BTS! But good for him
|
And i also found out that RO24 groups are made and not random!
|
On August 28 2025 21:52 prosatan wrote:
And i also found out that RO24 groups are made and not random!
how so? i thougt its tiered based but still random system - i.e anyone from t1 can match with anyone from other tiers?
as for the results - only real surprise for me was hero going out like he did, i mean he was in ro16 for like 10 season in a row and constantly also making ro8/ro4?
my fav player JD did well, and as Artosis mentioned - he is in very good shape recently, i feel he can win vs anyone but light right now(yes even vs SK), hope he keeps his form and increases the amount of practice, because ASL is a long tournament.
|
Larva surprised me. He really didn't look to be in great condition and I was convinced it was Ample's year to advance - not because of the ladder rating but because of the clear work he's put into his play.
JYJ looked unwell. Expected Speed to beat Bisu tbh.
Mini is hilarious. An amazing player who makes CPL tier mistakes. I truly love his clown show games.
Rush kinda underperformed it feels like. But credit where it's due - Jaedong is in monster mode. I'd be more excited but we already have a bunch of god Zergs. Guess hero threw to balance the universe.
Dunno what to think of BarrackS. Could be a dark horse but capable of feats of transcendent retardation. He's a Terran Mini lol
|
On August 28 2025 22:02 Zografa wrote:Show nested quote +On August 28 2025 21:52 prosatan wrote:
And i also found out that RO24 groups are made and not random! how so? i thougt its tiered based but still random system - i.e anyone from t1 can match with anyone from other tiers? as for the results - only real surprise for me was hero going out like he did, i mean he was in ro16 for like 10 season in a row and constantly also making ro8/ro4? my fav player JD did well, and as Artosis mentioned - he is in very good shape recently, i feel he can win vs anyone but light right now(yes even vs SK), hope he keeps his form and increases the amount of practice, because ASL is a long tournament.
i swear i read it here on TL ! and i wasn't surprised because how else you get a group full of zergs??
and yes , i know that every group must have tier 1 , 2 , and 4 players..
|
On August 28 2025 22:26 prosatan wrote:Show nested quote +On August 28 2025 22:02 Zografa wrote:On August 28 2025 21:52 prosatan wrote:
And i also found out that RO24 groups are made and not random! how so? i thougt its tiered based but still random system - i.e anyone from t1 can match with anyone from other tiers? as for the results - only real surprise for me was hero going out like he did, i mean he was in ro16 for like 10 season in a row and constantly also making ro8/ro4? my fav player JD did well, and as Artosis mentioned - he is in very good shape recently, i feel he can win vs anyone but light right now(yes even vs SK), hope he keeps his form and increases the amount of practice, because ASL is a long tournament. i swear i read it here on TL ! and i wasn't surprised because how else you get a group full of zergs?? and yes , i know that every group must have tier 1 , 2 , and 4 players..
if anything group full of zergs is not confirming the argument of rigged groups, why would they do such a thing? its boring for viewers and u cant actually create meaningful advantage for someone with todays zvz(as seen even hero, tier 1 lost vs tier4 zerg.
|
Netherlands5198 Posts
My thoughts about the rest of the tournament to come, which is not really answering OP.
+ Show Spoiler +
Soulkey has a lot of power in making last Ro16 changes, therefore we can expect him to advance Ro8.
Because of previous ASL results Soulkey is still the favourite to go to the finals (and win).
Who else do I expect to survive the Ro16?
Best, he's also a top seed with power and has made Ro8 often enough.
Who won't survive Ro16?
BTS, Sharp, Barracks, Speed
I'm still not convinced of Speed, I don't believe he's better than peak Sharp. nor are BTS and BarrackS.
This leaves 10 possible contenders to fill out the Ro8:
Soma, JD, Effort, Larva, Bisu, Light, Snow, Queen, Mini, Rush
Who do I not see winning ASL:
Queen, Snow, Light, Rush.
Queen in Ro24 looked so bad...
Snow & Light are supposedly slumping a bit as of late.
Rush just seems incapable, honestly. If it wasn't for last season, Best would be on this list as well.
Effort can win the whole thing as long as he dodges Bisu, Snow and Mini
JD can beat anyone in the Ro8 but Effort.
Soma seems strong, but his previous ASL results don't look convincing.
I don't see Larva surviving ZvZ in his current form, maybe vs Queen.
Now back to my first paragraph: If Soulkey will be a finalist again. Who can beat him?
My top picks would be, in order: Effort, Best, Bisu, Soma, JD, Mini.
Soulkey doesn't appear to be looking as hot if I check his MPL results.
Snow and Light would be my bias favourites to reach the Ro4, but TMNT convinced me they're too busy being dads, hence I also don't name them as contenders to beat Soulkey in a final, even though I can totally see either one beat Soulkey.
|
On August 28 2025 23:20 Peeano wrote:My thoughts about the rest of the tournament to come, which is not really answering OP. + Show Spoiler +
Soulkey has a lot of power in making last Ro16 changes, therefore we can expect him to advance Ro8.
Because of previous ASL results Soulkey is still the favourite to go to the finals (and win).
Who else do I expect to survive the Ro16?
Best, he's also a top seed with power and has made Ro8 often enough.
Who won't survive Ro16?
BTS, Sharp, Barracks, Speed
I'm still not convinced of Speed, I don't believe he's better than peak Sharp. nor are BTS and BarrackS.
This leaves 10 possible contenders to fill out the Ro8:
Soma, JD, Effort, Larva, Bisu, Light, Snow, Queen, Mini, Rush
Who do I not see winning ASL:
Queen, Snow, Light, Rush.
Queen in Ro24 looked so bad...
Snow & Light are supposedly slumping a bit as of late.
Rush just seems incapable, honestly. If it wasn't for last season, Best would be on this list as well.
Effort can win the whole thing as long as he dodges Bisu, Snow and Mini
JD can beat anyone in the Ro8 but Effort.
Soma seems strong, but his previous ASL results don't look convincing.
I don't see Larva surviving ZvZ in his current form, maybe vs Queen.
Now back to my first paragraph: If Soulkey will be a finalist again. Who can beat him?
My top picks would be, in order: Effort, Best, Bisu, Soma, JD, Mini.
Soulkey doesn't appear to be looking as hot if I check his MPL results.
Snow and Light would be my bias favourites to reach the Ro4, but TMNT convinced me they're too busy being dads, hence I also don't name them as contenders to beat Soulkey in a final, even though I can totally see either one beat Soulkey.
The biggest threat to SK has always been ZvZ. In the other 2 matchups I don't really see anyone beating him in a bo series.
|
Netherlands5198 Posts
On August 29 2025 00:32 bochs wrote:Show nested quote +On August 28 2025 23:20 Peeano wrote:My thoughts about the rest of the tournament to come, which is not really answering OP. + Show Spoiler +
Soulkey has a lot of power in making last Ro16 changes, therefore we can expect him to advance Ro8.
Because of previous ASL results Soulkey is still the favourite to go to the finals (and win).
Who else do I expect to survive the Ro16?
Best, he's also a top seed with power and has made Ro8 often enough.
Who won't survive Ro16?
BTS, Sharp, Barracks, Speed
I'm still not convinced of Speed, I don't believe he's better than peak Sharp. nor are BTS and BarrackS.
This leaves 10 possible contenders to fill out the Ro8:
Soma, JD, Effort, Larva, Bisu, Light, Snow, Queen, Mini, Rush
Who do I not see winning ASL:
Queen, Snow, Light, Rush.
Queen in Ro24 looked so bad...
Snow & Light are supposedly slumping a bit as of late.
Rush just seems incapable, honestly. If it wasn't for last season, Best would be on this list as well.
Effort can win the whole thing as long as he dodges Bisu, Snow and Mini
JD can beat anyone in the Ro8 but Effort.
Soma seems strong, but his previous ASL results don't look convincing.
I don't see Larva surviving ZvZ in his current form, maybe vs Queen.
Now back to my first paragraph: If Soulkey will be a finalist again. Who can beat him?
My top picks would be, in order: Effort, Best, Bisu, Soma, JD, Mini.
Soulkey doesn't appear to be looking as hot if I check his MPL results.
Snow and Light would be my bias favourites to reach the Ro4, but TMNT convinced me they're too busy being dads, hence I also don't name them as contenders to beat Soulkey in a final, even though I can totally see either one beat Soulkey.
The biggest threat to SK has always been ZvZ. In the other 2 matchups I don't really see anyone beating him in a bo series.
That's fair. I think Soulkey is a bit overrated, especially since Best almost took him out. If Best can reach match point so can Bisu and Mini, who are no strangers to PvZ and playing best ofs.
|
For me, having so many of the old dogs showing such great form was the story of the RO24.
Larva, Bisu, Jaedong, EffOrt, and Soma all looked absolutely fantastic. Every single one of those players should scare the piss out of the seeds.
Then you have Queen, Mini, Rush, BarrackS, Sharp and Speed making it out. Queen and Mini obviously being the scariest of the 2nd placers. The tournament looks stacked. BTS (True) is the only guy who didn't look all too impressive to get out of the Ro24 but his risky all-inish mind-game style that gives me Shine-vibes still poses a threat to anyone.
I'm looking forward to the Ro16.
|
Roaring Currents is an interesting map and whoever vetoes it is a coward. I don't think that there haven't been nearly enough games played on it for anyone to actually make any reasonable evaluations of it in terms of balance and from how I've seen it play out in its occasional game in the daily pro leagues there are good arguments in favor of every race in almost any match up.
|
The guy that wrote that SK is overrated based on last finals vs Best. Are you serious???
Sk literally gifted games on weird all ins, and weird risky plays, but once he just played normally, no chance for best. A Best that supposedly was playing like the best version of himself, with mental strength like never before. We can say Sk is crumbling, but to say that SK is overrated is non sense.
Adding to that he isnt only a 4 Time ASL champion in a row, but also a KSL champion. Title wise he is literally the most successful player in the modern broodwar era… The only thing that diminishes his accomplishments are the fact, that players like Flash, Last, Larva, past peak Rain, Soma and Effort for some time, and there is some form of perception or like situation where people feel that the missing of these stars and the perceived fluctuation of some tops players somehow allowed SK to be this dominat or break through.
Though Flash was already declining, and all these other players maybe were not declining or just couldnt keep up with the increase of SK and his consistency.
I mean it is hard to say that the general level of players is decreasing, when there are docent of top new players under them conistently trying to break through.
|
On August 28 2025 22:07 pseudosignal wrote:
Larva surprised me. He really didn't look to be in great condition and I was convinced it was Ample's year to advance - not because of the ladder rating but because of the clear work he's put into his play.
JYJ looked unwell. Expected Speed to beat Bisu tbh.
Mini is hilarious. An amazing player who makes CPL tier mistakes. I truly love his clown show games.
Rush kinda underperformed it feels like. But credit where it's due - Jaedong is in monster mode. I'd be more excited but we already have a bunch of god Zergs. Guess hero threw to balance the universe.
Dunno what to think of BarrackS. Could be a dark horse but capable of feats of transcendent retardation. He's a Terran Mini lol
larva is smart and practices a lot of hours unlike rain who is probably smarter but doesn’t practice nearly as much
barracks is the new forgg
|
Netherlands5198 Posts
"The guy" and then asking if I'm serious with 3 questions marks. I'm not basing SK being a bit (you forgot this part) overrated on just the last finals vs Best. Also lol at using past peak Rain for your argument and doing Soulkey dirty like that.
Are you serious???
|
I think Soulkey is not gonna win this season. No particular reason. Just feel like the odds of winning 5 in a row is too slim, especially when there are so many Zergs and he may not be the best motivated after 4 peat, plus he's not lookin amazing online recently (although he never did, online)
|
I don't see the Soulkey dominance anymore; I'm not sure if he's getting a bit worse or if others are getting better. JD is on a tear, though. His play lately has been such a joy to watch. His aggressive style might not be as consistent a way to win as Soulkey's approach, but it is surely more fun to watch.
|
On August 29 2025 08:45 TMNT wrote:
I think Soulkey is not gonna win this season. No particular reason. Just feel like the odds of winning 5 in a row is too slim, especially when there are so many Zergs and he may not be the best motivated after 4 peat, plus he's not lookin amazing online recently (although he never did, online)
Soulkey did have periods where he looked amazing online, but these periods were never right before an ASL. Soulkey always gets into peak form whenever it is his time to play. Last four seasons he got progressively better online the deeper he got into the tournament, allegedly because his motivation increases along with his activity. What is different however is that after the first three wins he had a more dominant 2 months after in his online play. This time around the two months after he was not as dominant, and he was less active. We could take this as a sign of losing his competitive drive. I'd say it is too early to say, but it is not impossible.
Also his two only competitors over these past two years, Light, and SnOw, and for the last season a peaking Best who doesnt count for this specific comparison, are at their lowest points of activity in years. Whether this decreased activity will hurt their performance or whether it was just enough to stay in form is something we will find out in the ro16.
on paper this season is due to above reasons the perfect season for someone else to take the throne. SoMa, Bisu, Jaedong, Queen specifically come to mind with how the maps are rather zerg favored. Even Larva has a chance because his activity level is insanely high.
|
4 Zergs in semifinals it is.
|
Those who made it
Mini , D+
Larva, TRUE C-
Speed, ZerO C
Sharp C+
n/a B-
Rush, effOrt B
Bisu B+
BarrackS A-
Jaedong A
soma A+
|
I just noticed that every Terran who advanced out of the round of 24 did so by winning a TvT in the final match. That's not a great sign for their success going forward.
|
The data I collected suggested that JyJ, hero, and Royal are not doing as well as we'd typically exoect, and the results bore that out. Not only did all of them get eliminated - none of them looked very good in their games.
The data also indicated that Jaedong and Mong were going to be a lot better than they'd been in previous seasons, and I think that was borne out as well. Jaedong looked excellent. Mong didn't advance, but he looked very respectable despite it being a tough group. If he had been the Tier 3 player in A,B, F, or maybe even C, I think he could've made it.
There were a couple surprises for me. Stork and sSak sucked. Stork statistically looked like a very solid TvT player over the last 9 months. He's about even with Rush, Barracks, and sSak and beating Royal handily. He did not look good at all against Ample. I didn't expect sSak to advance, but I didn't expect him to look as shaky as he did.
Looking forward to Ro16, my guess is that Soulkey and Best will split Barracks and Speed in some order, Snow will pick Rush like he did last time, and Light will get to feast on True or Larva (and, if he can get them to go along with it, both). I will be surprised if Light does not end up with an all Zerg group.
All of these Zergs advancing is obviously a huge problem for Soulkey. I do not think he will be able to avoid a ZvZ in Ro16 (he will probably to throw Mini, Bisu, or Rush at the Zerg in his group to snipe them). Queen and Soma are favored against him, and Effort and Jaedong are both serious threats. I still think he's the odds on favorite to win the tournament, but he hasn't looked this vulnerable since his first championship run.
|
United States10250 Posts
On August 29 2025 23:04 zutt0 wrote:
The data I collected suggested that JyJ, hero, and Royal are not doing as well as we'd typically exoect, and the results bore that out. Not only did all of them get eliminated - none of them looked very good in their games.
The data also indicated that Jaedong and Mong were going to be a lot better than they'd been in previous seasons, and I think that was borne out as well. Jaedong looked excellent. Mong didn't advance, but he looked very respectable despite it being a tough group. If he had been the Tier 3 player in A,B, F, or maybe even C, I think he could've made it.
There were a couple surprises for me. Stork and sSak sucked. Stork statistically looked like a very solid TvT player over the last 9 months. He's about even with Rush, Barracks, and sSak and beating Royal handily. He did not look good at all against Ample. I didn't expect sSak to advance, but I didn't expect him to look as shaky as he did.
Looking forward to Ro16, my guess is that Soulkey and Best will split Barracks and Speed in some order, Snow will pick Rush like he did last time, and Light will get to feast on True or Larva (and, if he can get them to go along with it, both). I will be surprised if Light does not end up with an all Zerg group.
All of these Zergs advancing is obviously a huge problem for Soulkey. I do not think he will be able to avoid a ZvZ in Ro16 (he will probably to throw Mini, Bisu, or Rush at the Zerg in his group to snipe them). Queen and Soma are favored against him, and Effort and Jaedong are both serious threats. I still think he's the odds on favorite to win the tournament, but he hasn't looked this vulnerable since his first championship run.
When did Stork start race picking TvT?
|
Pretty sure even sSak himself was happy with his own performance
|
On August 29 2025 04:38 Peeano wrote:
"The guy" and then asking if I'm serious with 3 questions marks. I'm not basing SK being a bit (you forgot this part) overrated on just the last finals vs Best. Also lol at using past peak Rain for your argument and doing Soulkey dirty like that.
Are you serious???
Sorry, i got triggered for no actual reason.
I was rambling around like i do see many people do here. And wanted to do the same, i will try to be more polite and send reasonable post on this website.
Have a nice day.
|
TBH i wanted to see TY make the next round.... i'm expecting spicy things from him, such as TvP 4 or 5 rax similar to how scan used to do sometimes, using his sc2 championship level baneling split micro to spread m&m vs reaver scarabs
|
On August 29 2025 21:19 TornadoSteve wrote:
Those who made it
Mini , D+
Larva, TRUE C-
Speed, ZerO C
Sharp C+
n/a B-
Rush, effOrt B
Bisu B+
BarrackS A-
Jaedong A
soma A+
Hard disagree on Jaedong. I didn't watch all of the ro24 games but I watched the first 4 groups and imo Jaedong's wins were extremely suspect. He could easily have lost all of his games, he was throwing so hard mid-late game and not playing up to quality. His early/early-mid game was great but he started to fall apart after and only his early advantage let him win. Very suspect multitasking was the big issue. He couldn't even put mutas into standby and then do something else then go back to mutas effectively. I think it's extremely plausible that he doesn't make ro8.
|
On August 30 2025 07:45 Kaal wrote:Show nested quote +On August 29 2025 21:19 TornadoSteve wrote:
Those who made it
Mini , D+
Larva, TRUE C-
Speed, ZerO C
Sharp C+
n/a B-
Rush, effOrt B
Bisu B+
BarrackS A-
Jaedong A
soma A+ Hard disagree on Jaedong. I didn't watch all of the ro24 games but I watched the first 4 groups and imo Jaedong's wins were extremely suspect. He could easily have lost all of his games, he was throwing so hard mid-late game and not playing up to quality. His early/early-mid game was great but he started to fall apart after and only his early advantage let him win. Very suspect multitasking was the big issue. He couldn't even put mutas into standby and then do something else then go back to mutas effectively. I think it's extremely plausible that he doesn't make ro8.
I find you a bit hard on Jaedong since he could have ended the game vs Rush much earlier if he wanted to. Remember, this was a bo1, pretty sure in a bo5 he would have not hesitated in going all in on 2 bases, Rush had no eco at all. As I see it, he obviously decided to play it safe securing the win with the advantage he got with his early harass. At some point the timing was tight, especially with that nydus on third but in the end, everything went according to plan. JD always was in ctrl of the game. And I think it is reassuring to see him opting for this kind of strat because it shows that he is confident in his skill even vs an opponent which is supposed to be better than him.
|
great ro24, but a bit afraid the ro8 and forwaard is going to be a zerg fiesta
|
Larva proved me wrong. Glad he made it.
As for the Ro16 onwards, I won't be surprised if it ends up as a Zerg fiesta. a lot of the zergs are looking good now. Hope soulkey is ready since from what I understand, the mirror matchup is also his weakest.
|
With 8 zergs in the Ro16 , a ZvZ final is looking inevitable. Not sure who has the best vZ right now for T/P. Snow? Light?
As far as I can tell ZvZ is basically a coin toss between all pros right now, everyone is pretty much on equal footing.
|
On August 31 2025 00:07 Ideas wrote:
With 8 zergs in the Ro16 , a ZvZ final is looking inevitable. Not sure who has the best vZ right now for T/P. Snow? Light?
As far as I can tell ZvZ is basically a coin toss between all pros right now, everyone is pretty much on equal footing.
Statistically, over the last 9 months, it's Light then Rush then Snow/Sharp.
Light is 59.2% across top Zergs (Soulkey, Hero, Action, Queen, Jaedong, Soma, Effort). Rush is 56.7%, Snow is 53.6%, Sharp is 53.5%.
If you dig deeper into the records, Light looks even more impressive because a relatively large chunk of his games are against Soulkey and a relatively small chunk of his games are against Jaedong and Action. Rush looks a little less impressive because he's basically farming Hero and Jaedong.
The interesting thing is that the best vZ winrates are the Zergs themselves. Soma is 63.6%, Queen is 62.9%, and Jaedong is 61.1%. For reference, Soulkey is at 48%, Effort is at 50%, True is at 31.8%, and Larva is at 30%. The sample sizes for ZvZ are small (~20 games for most of these guys), so we can't read too much into this, but it supports the notion that we're in for a very Zerg-heavy Ro8.
|
I would only look at stats for games played on the current map pool because that's what's going to be played and it represents more recent form.
|
On August 31 2025 01:39 RogueTheGOAT wrote:
I would only look at stats for games played on the current map pool because that's what's going to be played and it represents more recent form.
That would work well for players who play a ton, like Rush and Mini, but it would leave you with too little data for most players. You could say that that just goes to show that a data-based approach doesn't make any sense and we're better off with the eyeball test, and maybe we are (I'm not a good enough player to apply the eyeball test). But if you want a data-based approach, you need some way of filling in those gaps. You can either bring in ladder games or extend the window backward a little, and I think extending the window back makes more sense.
|
On August 31 2025 01:39 RogueTheGOAT wrote:
I would only look at stats for games played on the current map pool because that's what's going to be played and it represents more recent form.
With all due respect, I think pros play the game outside of the convention mapmakers intend the games to go.
We both saw SK vs Best finals last game. The new KnockOut is aimed to balance that. However, pros can easily play outside the convention.
Group C winners match between Soma and Bisu demonstrated this perfectly. You can hear the narrative change live as Tastosis says @1 hour 4 minutes, "This map is a solution to that" to @1hour 17 minutes, "here's the problem: it is very hard for Dragoons to break the contain here".
|
On August 29 2025 08:45 TMNT wrote:
I think Soulkey is not gonna win this season. No particular reason. Just feel like the odds of winning 5 in a row is too slim
How many times someone won in a row doesn't change the chances of winning, other than psychologically (so if anything, it improves them since everyone is a bit more scared)
|
Stork looks washed. The new maps are producing pretty exciting games.
|
On August 31 2025 16:10 prototype. wrote:
Stork looks washed. The new maps are producing pretty exciting games.
Stork has been there for so long, there are ups and downs. Right now he looks kind of weak, but he still qualified for an ASL, which is a dream for a lot of extremely strong players, and he might just need to reset to perform very well again.
I don’t think we will see him in a Ro4 or something, but there is no reason why he couldn’t be a force to be reckoned with if he decides to put on the hours.
|
The maps have been bringing interesting games. And upsets. Good for the tourney and the scene
On August 31 2025 01:01 zutt0 wrote:Show nested quote +On August 31 2025 00:07 Ideas wrote:
With 8 zergs in the Ro16 , a ZvZ final is looking inevitable. Not sure who has the best vZ right now for T/P. Snow? Light?
As far as I can tell ZvZ is basically a coin toss between all pros right now, everyone is pretty much on equal footing. Statistically, over the last 9 months, it's Light then Rush then Snow/Sharp. Light is 59.2% across top Zergs (Soulkey, Hero, Action, Queen, Jaedong, Soma, Effort). Rush is 56.7%, Snow is 53.6%, Sharp is 53.5%. If you dig deeper into the records, Light looks even more impressive because a relatively large chunk of his games are against Soulkey and a relatively small chunk of his games are against Jaedong and Action. Rush looks a little less impressive because he's basically farming Hero and Jaedong. The interesting thing is that the best vZ winrates are the Zergs themselves. Soma is 63.6%, Queen is 62.9%, and Jaedong is 61.1%. For reference, Soulkey is at 48%, Effort is at 50%, True is at 31.8%, and Larva is at 30%. The sample sizes for ZvZ are small (~20 games for most of these guys), so we can't read too much into this, but it supports the notion that we're in for a very Zerg-heavy Ro8.
That's interesting. Light being the best tvz'r is no surprise but even against SK ? They need to run over alot of zergs in the groups lol
On August 31 2025 16:10 prototype. wrote:
Stork looks washed. The new maps are producing pretty exciting games.
On August 30 2025 06:11 Crimson)S(hadow wrote:
TBH i wanted to see TY make the next round.... i'm expecting spicy things from him, such as TvP 4 or 5 rax similar to how scan used to do sometimes, using his sc2 championship level baneling split micro to spread m&m vs reaver scarabs
I really wanted TY to make it too but lets be real here. Aint no way you are replicating the sc2 splitting in bw so easily considering how lack of responsiveness bw units are lol
TY isnt gonna change bw micro considering he isnt the only sc2 to bw player around who had decent success
Also bio is so bad vs reaver lol
|
On August 31 2025 21:22 goody153 wrote:The maps have been bringing interesting games. And upsets. Good for the tourney and the scene Show nested quote +On August 31 2025 01:01 zutt0 wrote:On August 31 2025 00:07 Ideas wrote:
With 8 zergs in the Ro16 , a ZvZ final is looking inevitable. Not sure who has the best vZ right now for T/P. Snow? Light?
As far as I can tell ZvZ is basically a coin toss between all pros right now, everyone is pretty much on equal footing. Statistically, over the last 9 months, it's Light then Rush then Snow/Sharp. Light is 59.2% across top Zergs (Soulkey, Hero, Action, Queen, Jaedong, Soma, Effort). Rush is 56.7%, Snow is 53.6%, Sharp is 53.5%. If you dig deeper into the records, Light looks even more impressive because a relatively large chunk of his games are against Soulkey and a relatively small chunk of his games are against Jaedong and Action. Rush looks a little less impressive because he's basically farming Hero and Jaedong. The interesting thing is that the best vZ winrates are the Zergs themselves. Soma is 63.6%, Queen is 62.9%, and Jaedong is 61.1%. For reference, Soulkey is at 48%, Effort is at 50%, True is at 31.8%, and Larva is at 30%. The sample sizes for ZvZ are small (~20 games for most of these guys), so we can't read too much into this, but it supports the notion that we're in for a very Zerg-heavy Ro8. That's interesting. Light being the best tvz'r is no surprise but even against SK ? They need to run over alot of zergs in the groups lol Show nested quote +On August 31 2025 16:10 prototype. wrote:
Stork looks washed. The new maps are producing pretty exciting games. Show nested quote +On August 30 2025 06:11 Crimson)S(hadow wrote:
TBH i wanted to see TY make the next round.... i'm expecting spicy things from him, such as TvP 4 or 5 rax similar to how scan used to do sometimes, using his sc2 championship level baneling split micro to spread m&m vs reaver scarabs I really wanted TY to make it too but lets be real here. Aint no way you are replicating the sc2 splitting in bw so easily considering how lack of responsiveness bw units are lol TY isnt gonna change bw micro considering he isnt the only sc2 to bw player around who had decent success Also bio is so bad vs reaver lol
speaking of bio vs reaver: does anyone have a working VOD of that awesome game between kal and forgg in the arena MSL? https://tl.net/tlpd/korean/games/9269_ForGG_vs_Jila/main
|
On August 29 2025 00:46 Peeano wrote:
That's fair. I think Soulkey is a bit overrated, especially since Best almost took him out. If Best can reach match point so can Bisu and Mini, who are no strangers to PvZ and playing best ofs.
7 games is a small sample size
a player who has 40% win rate vs. another player in any given game will win a bo7 around 29% of the time
|
So many people talking about Soulkey not appearing strong online lol. I think after winning 4 ASL's in a row, Soulkey knows what hes doing as far as his practice regiment and approach goes... maybe someday everyone will learn that the pros know better than casuals on a forum.
Jaedong looks better than he has in years, but I won't get my hopes up until he delivers.
Light and Snow doing Light and Snow things, being better than everyone except one person as it's been for a while now.
Jaedong and Soma are potentially the only really new surprises that could throw a wrench into things for me.
|
On September 01 2025 04:35 bw2ku wrote:
So many people talking about Soulkey not appearing strong online lol. I think after winning 4 ASL's in a row, Soulkey knows what hes doing as far as his practice regiment and approach goes... maybe someday everyone will learn that the pros know better than casuals on a forum.
Jaedong looks better than he has in years, but I won't get my hopes up until he delivers.
Light and Snow doing Light and Snow things, being better than everyone except one person as it's been for a while now.
Jaedong and Soma are potentially the only really new surprises that could throw a wrench into things for me.
What about Effort? You know what, Effort and Jaedong never competed at peak form. They only have 7 games in total with 3-4 split.
|
Netherlands5198 Posts
On September 01 2025 04:35 bw2ku wrote:
So many people talking about Soulkey not appearing strong online lol. I think after winning 4 ASL's in a row, Soulkey knows what hes doing as far as his practice regiment and approach goes... maybe someday everyone will learn that the pros know better than casuals on a forum.
Jaedong looks better than he has in years, but I won't get my hopes up until he delivers.
Light and Snow doing Light and Snow things, being better than everyone except one person as it's been for a while now.
Jaedong and Soma are potentially the only really new surprises that could throw a wrench into things for me.
You're a casual on a forum. We're all speculating, because no one can predict the future or look into the minds of pros. Anyway, if Soulkey knew what he was doing, I wouldn't expect Best to make it to match point before SK did. Yet that happened.
|
On September 01 2025 06:22 Peeano wrote:Show nested quote +On September 01 2025 04:35 bw2ku wrote:
So many people talking about Soulkey not appearing strong online lol. I think after winning 4 ASL's in a row, Soulkey knows what hes doing as far as his practice regiment and approach goes... maybe someday everyone will learn that the pros know better than casuals on a forum.
Jaedong looks better than he has in years, but I won't get my hopes up until he delivers.
Light and Snow doing Light and Snow things, being better than everyone except one person as it's been for a while now.
Jaedong and Soma are potentially the only really new surprises that could throw a wrench into things for me. You're a casual on a forum. We're all speculating, because no one can predict the future or look into the minds of pros. Anyway, if Soulkey knew what he was doing, I wouldn't expect Best to make it to match point before SK did. Yet that happened.
I'm aware I'm a casual, while you all seem to not be aware of that fact, that's the thing. SK has won 4 ASL's in a row... in a row. Nobody has ever done that, even with all the diminishing of this accomplishment saying "oh but this era isn't as competitive/no teamhouses" blah blah blah....
"The best player in the world doesn't know what he was doing because he didn't clean sweep the runner-up" is just foolish talk. Lord, listen to yourself lol.
Of course people are allowed to/will speculate, its just completely asinine to talk like the 4peat ASL champion doesn't know what they need to do to be in champion shape...
As far as Effort goes, Effort is very, very capable of being a complete monster. He's just highly inconsistent, and that's why I'm not onboard the Effort train nowadays.
|
Overall, an exciting, high-quality round of 24.
A. I thought Larva was going to win, but not in that fashion. It looked like he had never been away from ASL.
B. Bisu getting slack for his PvT doesn't make sense to me, it was always great. His PvZ/PvP were just godlike.
C. Really expected Mini to win his group, but I guess soma trained very hard in the military.
D. Happy for Effort, he always had this agressive and clean gameplay which still translates well to modern ZvZ. Disappointed in Calm, he can play better than this, especially ZvZ.
E. I feel like Jadeong is improving each time I see him, clearly putting in a lot of work, but his late-game was not convincing at all, being unable to keep up mechanically. I hope he can get himself a ro4 spot though.
F. Uhhhh... yeah. This group sadly put a black cloud above the ro24 with a ton of suspect turn of events. Whatever caused hero to play the way he did... I'm waiting for an explanation.
G. The new maps are great! More Roaring Currents, please 
|
Netherlands5198 Posts
On September 01 2025 07:36 bw2ku wrote:Show nested quote +On September 01 2025 06:22 Peeano wrote:On September 01 2025 04:35 bw2ku wrote:
So many people talking about Soulkey not appearing strong online lol. I think after winning 4 ASL's in a row, Soulkey knows what hes doing as far as his practice regiment and approach goes... maybe someday everyone will learn that the pros know better than casuals on a forum.
Jaedong looks better than he has in years, but I won't get my hopes up until he delivers.
Light and Snow doing Light and Snow things, being better than everyone except one person as it's been for a while now.
Jaedong and Soma are potentially the only really new surprises that could throw a wrench into things for me. You're a casual on a forum. We're all speculating, because no one can predict the future or look into the minds of pros. Anyway, if Soulkey knew what he was doing, I wouldn't expect Best to make it to match point before SK did. Yet that happened. I'm aware I'm a casual, while you all seem to not be aware of that fact, that's the thing. SK has won 4 ASL's in a row... in a row. Nobody has ever done that, even with all the diminishing of this accomplishment saying "oh but this era isn't as competitive/no teamhouses" blah blah blah.... "The best player in the world doesn't know what he was doing because he didn't clean sweep the runner-up" is just foolish talk. Lord, listen to yourself lol. Of course people are allowed to/will speculate, its just completely asinine to talk like the 4peat ASL champion doesn't know what they need to do to be in champion shape... As far as Effort goes, Effort is very, very capable of being a complete monster. He's just highly inconsistent, and that's why I'm not onboard the Effort train nowadays.
"i'm gonna "quote" this guy as if he said clean sweep. Everyone will surely point and laugh at him."
Lord, listen to yourself lol
No one here is saying Soulkey is not the facourite. Some people are just saying he's not as hot as some casual on a forum claims he is.
|
On September 01 2025 13:39 Peeano wrote:Show nested quote +On September 01 2025 07:36 bw2ku wrote:On September 01 2025 06:22 Peeano wrote:On September 01 2025 04:35 bw2ku wrote:
So many people talking about Soulkey not appearing strong online lol. I think after winning 4 ASL's in a row, Soulkey knows what hes doing as far as his practice regiment and approach goes... maybe someday everyone will learn that the pros know better than casuals on a forum.
Jaedong looks better than he has in years, but I won't get my hopes up until he delivers.
Light and Snow doing Light and Snow things, being better than everyone except one person as it's been for a while now.
Jaedong and Soma are potentially the only really new surprises that could throw a wrench into things for me. You're a casual on a forum. We're all speculating, because no one can predict the future or look into the minds of pros. Anyway, if Soulkey knew what he was doing, I wouldn't expect Best to make it to match point before SK did. Yet that happened. I'm aware I'm a casual, while you all seem to not be aware of that fact, that's the thing. SK has won 4 ASL's in a row... in a row. Nobody has ever done that, even with all the diminishing of this accomplishment saying "oh but this era isn't as competitive/no teamhouses" blah blah blah.... "The best player in the world doesn't know what he was doing because he didn't clean sweep the runner-up" is just foolish talk. Lord, listen to yourself lol. Of course people are allowed to/will speculate, its just completely asinine to talk like the 4peat ASL champion doesn't know what they need to do to be in champion shape... As far as Effort goes, Effort is very, very capable of being a complete monster. He's just highly inconsistent, and that's why I'm not onboard the Effort train nowadays. "i'm gonna "quote" this guy as if he said clean sweep. Everyone will surely point and laugh at him." Lord, listen to yourself lol No one here is saying Soulkey is not the facourite. Some people are just saying he's not as hot as some casual on a forum claims he is.
Albeit Soulkey always gave terrific series. The one with Royal, then JyJ, then Snow, then Sharp, Rain, Best. There is a pattern here. He always macros first. Clean sweep is not his style. You might call him playing slower than a regular zerg.
|
I had a dream where this season also concluded with a BeSt vs SK final and it ended up exactly with the same outcome as the previous one.
|
i srsly need to touch some grass lOLRFL but this is what i think happens today.
A
Soulkey
Barracks
soma → Sharp
Mini
B
Best
BTS
effOrt
Bisu
C
SnOw
Sharp → soma
Rush
Jaedong
D
Light
Larva
Speed
Queen
 
|
I was hyped for the matchups listed in the calendar until I realised it was just group selection, oops
|
On September 01 2025 06:22 Peeano wrote:Anyway, if Soulkey knew what he was doing, I wouldn't expect Best to make it to match point before SK did. Yet that happened.
again, winning 3 games against SK can happen even if you're not favored against him
if BeSt has a 40% win rate against SK, he's expected to win three games out of seven 58% of the time
|
On September 01 2025 15:04 gravity wrote:
I was hyped for the matchups listed in the calendar until I realised it was just group selection, oops
lol banned
|
On September 01 2025 15:09 iopq wrote:Show nested quote +On September 01 2025 06:22 Peeano wrote:Anyway, if Soulkey knew what he was doing, I wouldn't expect Best to make it to match point before SK did. Yet that happened. again, winning 3 games against SK can happen even if you're not favored against him if BeSt has a 40% win rate against SK, he's expected to win three games out of seven 58% of the time
if best has 40% wr vs SK, his chances of winning bo7 are less than 1 in 3, winning 3 games and losing 4-3 gives another ~15% to that, so best winning 3+ games in a bo7 vs SK is around 45%
|
On September 01 2025 14:40 RogerChillingworth wrote:i srsly need to touch some grass lOLRFL but this is what i think happens today. ASoulkey Barracks soma → Sharp Mini BBest BTS effOrt Bisu CSnOw Sharp → soma Rush Jaedong DLight Larva Speed Queen
First pick of the group leader can't be switched, so in this case Soulkey can't swap Soma with Sharp but can swap Rush with soma (unless SnOw do pick Rush first like previous season)
|
|
|
On September 01 2025 18:19 BoesFX wrote:Show nested quote +On September 01 2025 14:40 RogerChillingworth wrote:i srsly need to touch some grass lOLRFL but this is what i think happens today. ASoulkey Barracks soma → Sharp Mini BBest BTS effOrt Bisu CSnOw Sharp → soma Rush Jaedong DLight Larva Speed Queen First pick of the group leader can't be switched, so in this case Soulkey can't swap Soma with Sharp but can swap Rush with soma (unless SnOw do pick Rush first like previous season)
BUTTER MY BISCUIT
ok he swaps for Speed then
God are they just gonna speak Korean the whole time? ? ?
|
konadora
Singapore66357 Posts
lol BTS is quite funny
he tried to get SK to pick him but SK didn't want to risk losing in a ZvZ, so he appealed to BeSt, and BeSt said they're somewhat of a rival, and BTS said if BeSt chooses him, he will be BeSt's dog for the day
then Best was asked if he's decided, and he said "yes, Taesu (BTS), go put your name there" and BTS immediately ran over to put his name into group B lmao
|
konadora
Singapore66357 Posts
Snow: "I saw how close Group B were, so I want to pick someone I can be close with and have some great chit-chats."
Q: "What about Sharp?"
Sharp: "Lately your results have been... yeah... so do you want to practice a bit with me?"
Snow shakes his head
Sharp: "Oh, not me? Ah okay..." 
|
konadora
Singapore66357 Posts
Snow saying he wants to pick a Terran because there arent many Ts left, and he wants Zergs to be left behind so they'll all fight each other
|
konadora
Singapore66357 Posts
Snow saying he wanted to pick Barracks but since he was taken, he decided to pick someone easy so he picked Sharp
Sharp was pissed (jokingly) and said he'll pick players he doesnt want to face lol
|
konadora
Singapore66357 Posts
Effort: "pick me if you're looking to get eliminated' LOL
|
Thanks for translating konadora 
|
konadora
Singapore66357 Posts
Bisu: "It's okay if Light picks me. After all, as of late, I'm ahead in our head-to-head. 1 to 0."
|
konadora
Singapore66357 Posts
Light: "I haven't played seriously in the last 3 months, but looks like these players have gotten very cocky. I'll punish them all"
|
konadora
Singapore66357 Posts
Light: "I was planning on picking a T so I can guarantee myself into Ro16, but Speed was appealing himself very strongly today"
|
konadora
Singapore66357 Posts
Larva: "I wanted to get into a group with a couple of big names, but looks like I got into a group with a bunch of no-names... (dissing on Light being a forgotten ASL winner LOL) guess I'll just do my best"
|
snow picks sharp and sharp picks jd, lol this one already interesting :D
|
konadora
Singapore66357 Posts
Sharp picked JD over Effort because he says Effort is annoyingly strong against him, whereas JD is still more manageable
|
konadora
Singapore66357 Posts
Rush: "Can I also be Best's dog? Pick me please?"
|
little detail i noticed - the ASL champs have stars on their tracksuits symbolizing the number of wins they have
|
Soulkey can't dodge ZvZ anymore.
|
+ Show Spoiler +Poor Soulkey he has to contend with 2 really strong zergs and barracks lmao
|
konadora
Singapore66357 Posts
SK said that he felt betrayed by everyone lmao
|
Tough group for the champ. Can't believe I'm saying this but I don't think he's making it out.
|
I'm rooting for soma and effort now
|
|
|
konadora
Singapore66357 Posts
Mini: "I practiced with Larva for Ro24 and honestly he was kinda bad? Yet he talks so much here"
Larva: "Is he forgetting about our past? I think practice results don't mean anything. Man, now I wanna face him instead"
|
konadora
Singapore66357 Posts
Effort: "I know how to win Soma anyway, so send me anywhere and pair me with anyone, I don't care"
|
konadora
Singapore66357 Posts
Effort: "I rarely lose ZvZ in ASL. Leave me here in this group with you (SK) and you'll be in trouble"
|
konadora
Singapore66357 Posts
|
|
|
konadora
Singapore66357 Posts
|
might as well put razer in the sponsors category too, asl
|
That's kind of the only switch that can benefit Soulkey, so now he can still dodge ZvZ. Just beat Barracks, and Rush is more than expected to beat Effort, then you can play ZvT again.
|
Soulkey dodged a bullet lol.
|
konadora
Singapore66357 Posts
all the players there win the entire razer bundle wtf lol
|
Mini so mentally blocked against SnOw, but favored against JD and Sharp I think. Other groups are a bit meh. Honestly pretty balanced. I'd be surprised if there were many upsets.
Getting to swap a player out of your group as the former champion is pretty busted.
|
ALLEYCAT BLUES50596 Posts
these are some tough groups wow
|
Many thanks Kona !!!! 
|
Group C is the strongest ? maybe...
|
Thanks for the translation kona. Also effort talked about a promise he made to someone maybe Soma? I did not get it. What was it about?
|
Jd got it rough but hope he pulls it off
|
What exactly was the SK swap?
|
|
|
ALLEYCAT BLUES50596 Posts
|
I don't know if there are any groups where I would feel confident about the chances of Terran players in the round of 16 considering I was not particularly impressed with their round of 24 performances, but I'd project 1.5 Terran to make the round of 8 with a decent chance of that rounding down.
|
Not quite enough Zerg for a full Ro8...
|
Interesting effort didn’t go til round three. SK once again manufactured a pretty soft group for himself. Group C is by far the toughest. Group B should be killer too. Light and Soma seem a class above in Group D.
A: SK and Rush
B: Best and Queen
C: snow and JD
D: Light and Soma
|
On September 01 2025 23:05 Simplistik wrote:
Not quite enough Zerg for a full Ro8...
If they get 7, then ASL 21 needs to be full island maps with none of the bullshit they add to make them "balanced" which typically swings them hard in Zerg's favor.
|
Netherlands5198 Posts
Thanks Kona! It's nice to read a good summary of what was said like this!
|
Effort:"Pick me if you want to lose" Why can't more players have that confidence
|
So.. who's playing who in the first bo1's?
|
These are really sick looking groups, especially group C. Phew..
Hope for some awesome games!
|
On September 02 2025 06:02 M3t4PhYzX wrote:
So.. who's playing who in the first bo1's?
Top seed against first pick would be my guess. So SK vs Barracks etc
|
On August 29 2025 17:40 RJBTVYOUTUBE wrote:Show nested quote +On August 29 2025 08:45 TMNT wrote:
I think Soulkey is not gonna win this season. No particular reason. Just feel like the odds of winning 5 in a row is too slim, especially when there are so many Zergs and he may not be the best motivated after 4 peat, plus he's not lookin amazing online recently (although he never did, online) Soulkey did have periods where he looked amazing online, but these periods were never right before an ASL. Soulkey always gets into peak form whenever it is his time to play. Last four seasons he got progressively better online the deeper he got into the tournament, allegedly because his motivation increases along with his activity. What is different however is that after the first three wins he had a more dominant 2 months after in his online play. This time around the two months after he was not as dominant, and he was less active. We could take this as a sign of losing his competitive drive. I'd say it is too early to say, but it is not impossible. Also his two only competitors over these past two years, Light, and SnOw, and for the last season a peaking Best who doesnt count for this specific comparison, are at their lowest points of activity in years. Whether this decreased activity will hurt their performance or whether it was just enough to stay in form is something we will find out in the ro16. on paper this season is due to above reasons the perfect season for someone else to take the throne. SoMa, Bisu, Jaedong, Queen specifically come to mind with how the maps are rather zerg favored. Even Larva has a chance because his activity level is insanely high.
How are the maps zerg favored?? lmao
|
On September 02 2025 14:22 Shinokuki wrote:Show nested quote +On August 29 2025 17:40 RJBTVYOUTUBE wrote:On August 29 2025 08:45 TMNT wrote:
I think Soulkey is not gonna win this season. No particular reason. Just feel like the odds of winning 5 in a row is too slim, especially when there are so many Zergs and he may not be the best motivated after 4 peat, plus he's not lookin amazing online recently (although he never did, online) Soulkey did have periods where he looked amazing online, but these periods were never right before an ASL. Soulkey always gets into peak form whenever it is his time to play. Last four seasons he got progressively better online the deeper he got into the tournament, allegedly because his motivation increases along with his activity. What is different however is that after the first three wins he had a more dominant 2 months after in his online play. This time around the two months after he was not as dominant, and he was less active. We could take this as a sign of losing his competitive drive. I'd say it is too early to say, but it is not impossible. Also his two only competitors over these past two years, Light, and SnOw, and for the last season a peaking Best who doesnt count for this specific comparison, are at their lowest points of activity in years. Whether this decreased activity will hurt their performance or whether it was just enough to stay in form is something we will find out in the ro16. on paper this season is due to above reasons the perfect season for someone else to take the throne. SoMa, Bisu, Jaedong, Queen specifically come to mind with how the maps are rather zerg favored. Even Larva has a chance because his activity level is insanely high. How are the maps zerg favored?? lmao
Bridged expansions are z>>p,t. For PvT it helps if expansion is small; for terran, large expansions.
|
Gah. Why is mini always in stupid groups with Snow. I have 2 Protoss hopes and they’re always threatening each other. This is a Zerg heavy asl. Give me mini PvZ gah. So annoyed. Mini in group B is perfect. Don’t waste the Ro8 on best.
|
On September 01 2025 20:29 konadora wrote:Ro16 final group
A: Soulkey and Rush
B: Queen and Bisu
C: SnOw and Jaedong
D: SoMa and Light.
I will be wrong about these predictiona as usual.
|
Mini recently played 9 games against Jaedong and only lost to some dumb all-ins. Personal bias aside, Mini looks stronger. JD even skipping spire and full sending it, so Mini rocked sair/reaver and made like it was a 90s Arnold movie and 360-snapped jd's neck so hard it unscrewed off and like bounced out of the dude's house like a basketball. And then Mini shot it from his window with a fucking crossbow and it exploded. It was unbelievable.
I'm hoping people actually cook some shit up and don't just walk in expecting their morning coffee to work against former champions. SnOw, Light, Bisu, Rush, etc. tend to play a normal game and eventually get sat on. Maybe SnOw's the exception.
|
On September 02 2025 18:24 RogerChillingworth wrote:
Mini recently played 9 games against Jaedong and only lost to some dumb all-ins. Personal bias aside, Mini looks stronger. JD even skipping spire and full sending it, so Mini rocked sair/reaver and made like it was a 90s Arnold movie and 360-snapped jd's neck so hard it unscrewed off and like bounced out of the dude's house like a basketball. And then Mini shot it from his window with a fucking crossbow and it exploded. It was unbelievable.
I'm hoping people actually cook some shit up and don't just walk in expecting their morning coffee to work against former champions. SnOw, Light, Bisu, Rush, etc. tend to play a normal game and eventually get sat on. Maybe SnOw's the exception.
He often does plenty of all ins and/or timing push during these bo7 matches which are inconsequent and a good playground to try out stuff. He opened hatch 12 so many times. It is highly unlikely that he will play this way for ASL imo.
|
Mini is one of those players that almost always does something crazy in his ASL matches. Even if he's not the best P, he's so fun to watch.
|
On September 02 2025 23:57 Ideas wrote:
Mini is one of those players that almost always does something crazy in his ASL matches. Even if he's not the best P, he's so fun to watch.
Is it me, or is he going to get streamrolled by Snow?
|
On September 03 2025 00:18 mtcn77 wrote:Show nested quote +On September 02 2025 23:57 Ideas wrote:
Mini is one of those players that almost always does something crazy in his ASL matches. Even if he's not the best P, he's so fun to watch. Is it me, or is he going to get streamrolled by Snow?
SnOw usually wins PvP iirc. He uses to be weaker than Mini at it, but he has evolved.
|
What surprises me is there is equal chance of True progressing into the round of 8 versus all the prime suspects in Group C not making it out. It is just an unprecedented group selection, in my opinion.
|
How are the maps zerg favored?? lmao
thats how the games are currently playing out in KCM, DPL & ASL
|
On September 03 2025 01:42 mtcn77 wrote:
What surprises me is there is equal chance of True progressing into the round of 8 versus all the prime suspects in Group C not making it out. It is just an unprecedented group selection, in my opinion.
I feel like since Ro16 has Bo3s there's a far lower chance for true to succeed than in Ro24. But who knows.
|
I think these are all well-balanced groups with lots of ASL winners and finalists (11/16). Nothing like last season's stacked group of Snow, Rush, Mini and hero.
Jaedong has a good chance to get through to Ro8. He can out-micro Snow and Mini and should be ok with Sharp.
Speed can probably upset someone in his group.
|
On September 03 2025 02:23 Ideas wrote:Show nested quote +On September 03 2025 01:42 mtcn77 wrote:
What surprises me is there is equal chance of True progressing into the round of 8 versus all the prime suspects in Group C not making it out. It is just an unprecedented group selection, in my opinion. I feel like since Ro16 has Bo3s there's a far lower chance for true to succeed than in Ro24. But who knows.
Oh, you are right. One wrong step and he is back in the preliminaries. What ever, I hope he isn't short on build orders.
I seriously cannot see him lasting more than 5 minutes with Best. Best plays like prime Stork these days.
|
That's a phenomenal group for Bisu. hsi PvP is actually the only matchup where he's not lost an extra step and is secretly Best's worst matchup by a mile these days. The maps are ok against Z's for P this season. I have Queen and Bisu coming through in that group.
Absolute shame Mini and Snow have to fight it out in that group. I think these maps are really good for them and they are the strongest P's in this tournament due to the distribution of the Top16(a lot of Z, then T, then very few P).
|
On September 03 2025 02:41 polgas wrote:
I think these are all well-balanced groups with lots of ASL winners and finalists (11/16). Nothing like last season's stacked group of Snow, Rush, Mini and hero.
Jaedong has a good chance to get through to Ro8. He can out-micro Snow and Mini and should be ok with Sharp.
Speed can probably upset someone in his group.
SnOw's Micro is better than Jaedong's. Jaedong's going to have to rely on map advantages and decisiveness.
|
I saw his games lately and it ain't so bad. His muta control is quite good against Rush. He can snipe those templars easy.
|
ALLEYCAT BLUES50596 Posts
Jaedong's biggest advantage is that he's in a group where he has the mental edge, everyone else has choked mega hard over the years.
|
On September 03 2025 12:10 BLinD-RawR wrote:
Jaedong's biggest advantage is that he's in a group where he has the mental edge, everyone else has choked mega hard over the years.
idk if calling SnOw losing ONLY to Soulkey for the past 3 seasons, in quarter or Semi, counts as choking mega hard. Specifically considering the mental aspect was exactly Jaedong's weakness in the past ten seasons. If anything Jaedong might not have the mental edge. It is too early to call.
|
On September 03 2025 06:03 oxKnu wrote:
That's a phenomenal group for Bisu. hsi PvP is actually the only matchup where he's not lost an extra step and is secretly Best's worst matchup by a mile these days. The maps are ok against Z's for P this season. I have Queen and Bisu coming through in that group.
Absolute shame Mini and Snow have to fight it out in that group. I think these maps are really good for them and they are the strongest P's in this tournament due to the distribution of the Top16(a lot of Z, then T, then very few P).
I am wondering why you think this map pool is good for pvz? I hear artosis say this but not why. When I look at the numbers for high level matches ( asl pl KCM) p has no winning maps atm.
|
Terran and Protoss are both getting absolutely destroyed by Zerg in KCM race wars right now.
Wouldn't be surprised to see Top 4 all Zergs.
|
On September 03 2025 22:03 Postaljester_ wrote:Show nested quote +On September 03 2025 06:03 oxKnu wrote:
That's a phenomenal group for Bisu. hsi PvP is actually the only matchup where he's not lost an extra step and is secretly Best's worst matchup by a mile these days. The maps are ok against Z's for P this season. I have Queen and Bisu coming through in that group.
Absolute shame Mini and Snow have to fight it out in that group. I think these maps are really good for them and they are the strongest P's in this tournament due to the distribution of the Top16(a lot of Z, then T, then very few P). I am wondering why you think this map pool is good for pvz? I hear artosis say this but not why. When I look at the numbers for high level matches ( asl pl KCM) p has no winning maps atm.
It only takes 15 minutes from gamestart for him to backtrack on his words.
|
On September 03 2025 22:03 Postaljester_ wrote:Show nested quote +On September 03 2025 06:03 oxKnu wrote:
That's a phenomenal group for Bisu. hsi PvP is actually the only matchup where he's not lost an extra step and is secretly Best's worst matchup by a mile these days. The maps are ok against Z's for P this season. I have Queen and Bisu coming through in that group.
Absolute shame Mini and Snow have to fight it out in that group. I think these maps are really good for them and they are the strongest P's in this tournament due to the distribution of the Top16(a lot of Z, then T, then very few P). I am wondering why you think this map pool is good for pvz? I hear artosis say this but not why. When I look at the numbers for high level matches ( asl pl KCM) p has no winning maps atm.
The maps aint that good for zergs.. espeially knockout and the island map. Nowadays zergs usually win via hydra bust or ling runbys. If they can't pull that out well they have to go standard and P usually wins if it goes standard. Zerg always "has" to do something to pull ahead or beat with all semi all-in strats. This is what soma has been complaining years. Y'll just don't see it. Now compare it to non-pro zvps where doing these semi all in strats are extremely hard to pull in maps that basically guarantee perfect simcity for Ps and they give you 1v1 spots for zlot vs lings.
|
On September 04 2025 05:19 Shinokuki wrote:Show nested quote +On September 03 2025 22:03 Postaljester_ wrote:On September 03 2025 06:03 oxKnu wrote:
That's a phenomenal group for Bisu. hsi PvP is actually the only matchup where he's not lost an extra step and is secretly Best's worst matchup by a mile these days. The maps are ok against Z's for P this season. I have Queen and Bisu coming through in that group.
Absolute shame Mini and Snow have to fight it out in that group. I think these maps are really good for them and they are the strongest P's in this tournament due to the distribution of the Top16(a lot of Z, then T, then very few P). I am wondering why you think this map pool is good for pvz? I hear artosis say this but not why. When I look at the numbers for high level matches ( asl pl KCM) p has no winning maps atm. The maps aint that good for zergs.. espeially knockout and the island map. Nowadays zergs usually win via hydra bust or ling runbys. If they can't pull that out well they have to go standard and P usually wins if it goes standard. Zerg always "has" to do something to pull ahead or beat with all semi all-in strats. This is what soma has been complaining years. Y'll just don't see it. Now compare it to non-pro zvps where doing these semi all in strats are extremely hard to pull in maps that basically guarantee perfect simcity for Ps and they give you 1v1 spots for zlot vs lings.
Knockout is good for zerg though. Very good terrain for lurkers and chokepointing.
|
On September 03 2025 23:22 ScoutWBF wrote:
Terran and Protoss are both getting absolutely destroyed by Zerg in KCM race wars right now.
Wouldn't be surprised to see Top 4 all Zergs.
Oh yeah but i'm still hoping we get a more balanced final 8 and final 4 with consideration of tournament form. Sometimes players can get smashed in online matches and ladder but show up in the tournament proper and vice versa
Not only for this broodwar but even other esports too it is not an uncommon occurance
|
On September 03 2025 22:03 Postaljester_ wrote:Show nested quote +On September 03 2025 06:03 oxKnu wrote:
That's a phenomenal group for Bisu. hsi PvP is actually the only matchup where he's not lost an extra step and is secretly Best's worst matchup by a mile these days. The maps are ok against Z's for P this season. I have Queen and Bisu coming through in that group.
Absolute shame Mini and Snow have to fight it out in that group. I think these maps are really good for them and they are the strongest P's in this tournament due to the distribution of the Top16(a lot of Z, then T, then very few P). I am wondering why you think this map pool is good for pvz? I hear artosis say this but not why. When I look at the numbers for high level matches ( asl pl KCM) p has no winning maps atm.
Generally, maps that allow for safe thirds or allow for air-play favor Protoss a bit over Zerg. So the remark mainly means that these type of seasons are good chances for Protoss to advance far in the tournament.
The map-pool is overall diverse enough, so I don't think it's a big deal but I remember the seasons with FS/CB clones where P was clearly the most disadvantaged race in the field.
Artosis says a lot of bullshit when he talks about Protoss.
|
On September 04 2025 19:12 RJBTVYOUTUBE wrote:Show nested quote +On September 04 2025 05:19 Shinokuki wrote:On September 03 2025 22:03 Postaljester_ wrote:On September 03 2025 06:03 oxKnu wrote:
That's a phenomenal group for Bisu. hsi PvP is actually the only matchup where he's not lost an extra step and is secretly Best's worst matchup by a mile these days. The maps are ok against Z's for P this season. I have Queen and Bisu coming through in that group.
Absolute shame Mini and Snow have to fight it out in that group. I think these maps are really good for them and they are the strongest P's in this tournament due to the distribution of the Top16(a lot of Z, then T, then very few P). I am wondering why you think this map pool is good for pvz? I hear artosis say this but not why. When I look at the numbers for high level matches ( asl pl KCM) p has no winning maps atm. The maps aint that good for zergs.. espeially knockout and the island map. Nowadays zergs usually win via hydra bust or ling runbys. If they can't pull that out well they have to go standard and P usually wins if it goes standard. Zerg always "has" to do something to pull ahead or beat with all semi all-in strats. This is what soma has been complaining years. Y'll just don't see it. Now compare it to non-pro zvps where doing these semi all in strats are extremely hard to pull in maps that basically guarantee perfect simcity for Ps and they give you 1v1 spots for zlot vs lings. Knockout is good for zerg though. Very good terrain for lurkers and chokepointing.
Again, soma negated that by saying it's hard to even get to that kinda spot in the first place. The negation of 973 hydra and 1v1 zlot vs ling gaps in many expos make the match up so much harder for zvp. To further support this. As of right now 9/4/2025, it's sitting at 49.4% win rate for zvp and that's with top tier zergs such as soulkey, soma, queen, jd, and larva all overperforming. Can you imagine zvp being less than 50% in this day and age where every maps are like easily 53%+. There is a reason why soma hates to play on this map. He also said Litmus is a map where you force the z to go all in because if it goes mid/late game it's usually a loss. This was a good map for zerg but mapmakers made it hard for zergs to do a ling run by at the back-end. Let's not even mention the island map. Another 48% win rate for zvp.
The only good map for zvp is polestar, sitting in at 52.3% but zvt is at 40%. Once again, maps are not that good for zergs this season. I can't even imagine what non-pro zergs have to do when all pro zergs are relying on hydra busts/ling-allins to pull their wins.
Source is from eloboard.com map stats btw.
|
I'm really hoping JD can go all the way this year.
|
On September 05 2025 08:49 Shinokuki wrote:Show nested quote +On September 04 2025 19:12 RJBTVYOUTUBE wrote:On September 04 2025 05:19 Shinokuki wrote:On September 03 2025 22:03 Postaljester_ wrote:On September 03 2025 06:03 oxKnu wrote:
That's a phenomenal group for Bisu. hsi PvP is actually the only matchup where he's not lost an extra step and is secretly Best's worst matchup by a mile these days. The maps are ok against Z's for P this season. I have Queen and Bisu coming through in that group.
Absolute shame Mini and Snow have to fight it out in that group. I think these maps are really good for them and they are the strongest P's in this tournament due to the distribution of the Top16(a lot of Z, then T, then very few P). I am wondering why you think this map pool is good for pvz? I hear artosis say this but not why. When I look at the numbers for high level matches ( asl pl KCM) p has no winning maps atm. The maps aint that good for zergs.. espeially knockout and the island map. Nowadays zergs usually win via hydra bust or ling runbys. If they can't pull that out well they have to go standard and P usually wins if it goes standard. Zerg always "has" to do something to pull ahead or beat with all semi all-in strats. This is what soma has been complaining years. Y'll just don't see it. Now compare it to non-pro zvps where doing these semi all in strats are extremely hard to pull in maps that basically guarantee perfect simcity for Ps and they give you 1v1 spots for zlot vs lings. Knockout is good for zerg though. Very good terrain for lurkers and chokepointing. Again, soma negated that by saying it's hard to even get to that kinda spot in the first place. The negation of 973 hydra and 1v1 zlot vs ling gaps in many expos make the match up so much harder for zvp. To further support this. As of right now 9/4/2025, it's sitting at 49.4% win rate for zvp and that's with top tier zergs such as soulkey, soma, queen, jd, and larva all overperforming. Can you imagine zvp being less than 50% in this day and age where every maps are like easily 53%+. There is a reason why soma hates to play on this map. He also said Litmus is a map where you force the z to go all in because if it goes mid/late game it's usually a loss. This was a good map for zerg but mapmakers made it hard for zergs to do a ling run by at the back-end. Let's not even mention the island map. Another 48% win rate for zvp. The only good map for zvp is polestar, sitting in at 52.3% but zvt is at 40%. Once again, maps are not that good for zergs this season. I can't even imagine what non-pro zergs have to do when all pro zergs are relying on hydra busts/ling-allins to pull their wins. Source is from eloboard.com map stats btw.
Soma on knockout:
6-6 vs p
15-6 vs t
Action:
2-0 vs P
2-4 vs T
Queen:
10-6 vs P
10-19 vs T
Effort:
6-2 vs P
4-4 vs T
Larva: (feels like some data is missing for larva....)
2-3 vs P
0-2 vs T
Jaedong:
6-4 vs P
7-3 vs T
Hero:
3-5 vs P
5-6 vs T
Soulkey:
5-9 vs P
7-3 vs T
Total:
38-35 vs P
50-47 vs T
Marginally Zerg favored amongst top zergs.
|
On September 05 2025 10:27 RJBTVYOUTUBE wrote:Show nested quote +On September 05 2025 08:49 Shinokuki wrote:On September 04 2025 19:12 RJBTVYOUTUBE wrote:On September 04 2025 05:19 Shinokuki wrote:On September 03 2025 22:03 Postaljester_ wrote:On September 03 2025 06:03 oxKnu wrote:
That's a phenomenal group for Bisu. hsi PvP is actually the only matchup where he's not lost an extra step and is secretly Best's worst matchup by a mile these days. The maps are ok against Z's for P this season. I have Queen and Bisu coming through in that group.
Absolute shame Mini and Snow have to fight it out in that group. I think these maps are really good for them and they are the strongest P's in this tournament due to the distribution of the Top16(a lot of Z, then T, then very few P). I am wondering why you think this map pool is good for pvz? I hear artosis say this but not why. When I look at the numbers for high level matches ( asl pl KCM) p has no winning maps atm. The maps aint that good for zergs.. espeially knockout and the island map. Nowadays zergs usually win via hydra bust or ling runbys. If they can't pull that out well they have to go standard and P usually wins if it goes standard. Zerg always "has" to do something to pull ahead or beat with all semi all-in strats. This is what soma has been complaining years. Y'll just don't see it. Now compare it to non-pro zvps where doing these semi all in strats are extremely hard to pull in maps that basically guarantee perfect simcity for Ps and they give you 1v1 spots for zlot vs lings. Knockout is good for zerg though. Very good terrain for lurkers and chokepointing. Again, soma negated that by saying it's hard to even get to that kinda spot in the first place. The negation of 973 hydra and 1v1 zlot vs ling gaps in many expos make the match up so much harder for zvp. To further support this. As of right now 9/4/2025, it's sitting at 49.4% win rate for zvp and that's with top tier zergs such as soulkey, soma, queen, jd, and larva all overperforming. Can you imagine zvp being less than 50% in this day and age where every maps are like easily 53%+. There is a reason why soma hates to play on this map. He also said Litmus is a map where you force the z to go all in because if it goes mid/late game it's usually a loss. This was a good map for zerg but mapmakers made it hard for zergs to do a ling run by at the back-end. Let's not even mention the island map. Another 48% win rate for zvp. The only good map for zvp is polestar, sitting in at 52.3% but zvt is at 40%. Once again, maps are not that good for zergs this season. I can't even imagine what non-pro zergs have to do when all pro zergs are relying on hydra busts/ling-allins to pull their wins. Source is from eloboard.com map stats btw. Soma on knockout: 6-6 vs p 15-6 vs t Action: 2-0 vs P 2-4 vs T Queen: 10-6 vs P 10-19 vs T Effort: 6-2 vs P 4-4 vs T Larva: (feels like some data is missing for larva....) 2-3 vs P 0-2 vs T Jaedong: 6-4 vs P 7-3 vs T Hero: 3-5 vs P 5-6 vs T Soulkey: 5-9 vs P 7-3 vs T Total: 38-35 vs P 50-47 vs T Marginally Zerg favored amongst top zergs.
Wow that’s crazy underperforming given that these are supposed to be killers.. I also love how you brought up effort to make this stats in favor of your argument. Effort is borderline god tier participating in K league lmao. He plays against people worse than shuttle like tulbo. I can't even take this seriously and I'm not sure what you're arguing when all z pros are kinda dissatisfied with state of the maps for zvp.
|
imagine having a 49,4% zvp win rate and complaining about balance, because SOMA says so. If he says so, he must be right. If Stork will say that this map is heavily P favored, I will believe that. When a zerg user complains about his own race, it doesn't have much weight.
|
On September 05 2025 14:57 Bonyth wrote:
imagine having a 49,4% zvp win rate and complaining about balance, because SOMA says so. If he says so, he must be right. If Stork will say that this map is heavily P favored, I will believe that. When a zerg user complains about his own race, it doesn't have much weight.
I trust soma, queen, soulkey more than anyone for zerg takes because they have played these maps the most and looked for ways to abuse and win vs protoss. I ain't trusting anyone like stork, shuttle, or even you (non-pro). Not sure why you're bringing up stork. He's washed. I don't see any same complaints from other protoss because it's pretty easy for them to beat zerg in a straight up standard game but lose because of their own mistakes (i.e early game ling busts or underestimating hydra busts). The same cannot be said for zergs when it literally feels like the maps are against them (bad simcity wall, 1v1 tight gap allowing for zlot to fight 1v1 vs lings, high ground advantage for p simcity on knockout to prevent 973?? LOL and wide chokepoints. The biggest one that's been in trend is the wide chokepoints which force zergs to go for heavy hydra lurk army and maneuvering around the map with 400+ apm to prevent goon/zlot/temp army going straight to z base at 12 min mark). It used to work when z was forced to adopt this style but as p got used to it, zergs focus so much on mineral optimization and look for ways to damage p early so that they can avoid straight up standard game. Take a look at all the zvps played by soma or queen in a bo9/bo13 vs snow/best/bisu. It's hard to beat P in a standard game... all the enhancements that map makers gave to protoss allow for protoss to get away with some greedy strats which snowball into p having faster tech and eco.. Even the bo9 that soma played vs snow.. soma won 4 games with either ling busts or hydra busts. Any games that went cleanly into standard.. soma lost.
Also If ZvT was also at 50% zergs would be fine with that 49.4% zvp but zvt is at like sub 40%, putting zerg stats at around below 45%.. not sure what you're aruging here? Like zergs will accept 49% zvp if it means even 49% zvt..
Who am I to believe for map balance? Random foreigners like you or top tier pros who make living off on finding the best ways to win?
|
Group A looks pretty sick
|
On September 05 2025 15:03 Shinokuki wrote:Show nested quote +On September 05 2025 14:57 Bonyth wrote:
imagine having a 49,4% zvp win rate and complaining about balance, because SOMA says so. If he says so, he must be right. If Stork will say that this map is heavily P favored, I will believe that. When a zerg user complains about his own race, it doesn't have much weight. I trust soma, queen, soulkey more than anyone for zerg takes because they have played these maps the most and looked for ways to abuse and win vs protoss. I ain't trusting anyone like stork, shuttle, or even you (non-pro). Not sure why you're bringing up stork. He's washed. I don't see any same complaints from other protoss because it's pretty easy for them to beat zerg in a straight up standard game but lose because of their own mistakes (i.e early game ling busts or underestimating hydra busts). The same cannot be said for zergs when it literally feels like the maps are against them (bad simcity wall, 1v1 tight gap allowing for zlot to fight 1v1 vs lings, high ground advantage for p simcity on knockout to prevent 973?? LOL and wide chokepoints. The biggest one that's been in trend is the wide chokepoints which force zergs to go for heavy hydra lurk army and maneuvering around the map with 400+ apm to prevent goon/zlot/temp army going straight to z base at 12 min mark). It used to work when z was forced to adopt this style but as p got used to it, zergs focus so much on mineral optimization and look for ways to damage p early so that they can avoid straight up standard game. Take a look at all the zvps played by soma or queen in a bo9/bo13 vs snow/best/bisu. It's hard to beat P in a standard game... all the enhancements that map makers gave to protoss allow for protoss to get away with some greedy strats which snowball into p having faster tech and eco.. Even the bo9 that soma played vs snow.. soma won 4 games with either ling busts or hydra busts. Any games that went cleanly into standard.. soma lost. Also If ZvT was also at 50% zergs would be fine with that 49.4% zvp but zvt is at like sub 40%, putting zerg stats at around below 45%.. not sure what you're aruging here? Like zergs will accept 49% zvp if it means even 49% zvt.. Who am I to believe for map balance? Random foreigners like you or top tier pros who make living off on finding the best ways to win?
well they brings Stork ( because he is only the one Protoss from pros who is blaming the balance or i missinformed but i only know him ) comparated so far Jaedong, Soulkey,Soma,Calm, ggaemo. btw Queen said something about balance ? i just not heard from him i not say he is not say anything about this I'm just interestng. so the results: Stork > JD,SK,Soma,Calm,ggaemo so lets belive In Stork i quess.
|
where is your sense of humor guys )
Simply put Bisu instead of Stork there, so u're not enraged.
Anyway Shinokuki in your position I would:
- trust map's statistics
- blame zvt match up not being close to 50%
|
It's true even Bisu laughing too hardly when Stork talked about the balance :D
|
Cant wait for my brother TMNT to bring the paper
|
Like zergs will accept 49% zvp if it means even 49% zvt..
I totally agree with the principle that if ZvT is about 40%, then ZvP should be about 60% to compensate for that.
But at the same time, Protoss have been accepting sub 50% (mostly 45-47%) in both matchups for years, that it has become the norms for a so-called "standard, balanced" map.
That's the issue: ZvP at ~55% is considered normal for Zerg, so when it becomes ~50%, which technically is balanced, it's considered hard for Zerg. And that sparks these kinds of debate.
Bonyth has the right take in all of this: instead of saying maps are hard for Zerg in ZvP, let's blame the imba ZvT. Terran favored maps are the culprit, why are P and Z fighting with each other?
|
with rather small sample sizes based around a small group of players, we also have to account for individuals affecting winrates disproportionately. SoMa and Queen rewpectively provide most of the data in the TvZ on knockout sample set. In addition who did they play?
For the ZvP dataset.
Effort vs YSC tends to favor Effort, thus providing a biased dataset that instead of providing useful insights, just shows Effort > YSC most of the time. Likewise, Soulkey has a negative winrate vs Protoss on Knockout. But who did he play? SnOw, Best, and Bisu. The overal trend for the past few months is that Best, and SnOw tend to 50/50 sets back and forth vs soulkey. Soulkey's contribution is moreso a reflefction of his performance vs specifically Best and Snow and is due to its small sample size actually statistically insignificant. Due to the small sample size, the same twonplayers, and the alleged winrate of the map being so close to 50%, we can within this small sample size get wildly uneven winrates, because it is much more subject to individual form. Queen plays the same few people but has 10-6 record on Knockout in PvZ. Again, Best, SnOw, and Bisu as the main opponents. All it takes is a bad or a good week to completely skew the data.
Example: since posting the data yesterday, SoMa has won 4 knockout games in a row vs Bisu and SnOw. that alone puts the map over 50% winrate again. But before those games he had lost 4 in a row on Knockout.
note:made a correction.
|
It looks to me the data is not being update regularly. Larva by himself should be putting those scores way worse. Funny enough today he destroyed Mini badly lol. But even that is not enough to improve the amount of series i have seen him getting destroyed.
And in total fairness its ok for him to have those scores after being out of competitive for a long time. So taking him as someone to prove a map is bad or good is not something i will use as proof.
|
On September 05 2025 21:35 TMNT wrote:
That's the issue: ZvP at ~55% is considered normal for Zerg, so when it becomes ~50%, which technically is balanced, it's considered hard for Zerg. And that sparks these kinds of debate.
💯
Also Zergs don't have excuses for sub-50 ZvT, if anything that just shows their incompetence not map imbalance. Just look at Soulkey.
|
it's too early to tell whether the new maps are imbalanced because of the low data samples but it doesn't seem like we're gonna see any WRs above 60% in the end
I think even if the new maps turned out to be p>z for whatever reason, it would be fine since we had so many seasons of z>p and t>z maps
Pole Star is clearly a terran map though but noone seems to care about that one
|
On September 05 2025 23:59 bochs wrote:Show nested quote +On September 05 2025 21:35 TMNT wrote:
That's the issue: ZvP at ~55% is considered normal for Zerg, so when it becomes ~50%, which technically is balanced, it's considered hard for Zerg. And that sparks these kinds of debate.
💯 Also Zergs don't have excuses for sub-50 ZvT, if anything that just shows their incompetence not map imbalance. Just look at Soulkey.
I agree. Same with PvZ, if one race fares worse, it is due to worse current meta. It is up to players to make up their build orders.
|
It's time for...
Match-up specific maps!
It's obviously just too difficult, maybe even impossible to design maps that work well in all six match-ups and that are balanced across the three non-mirrors.
So instead of trying to do the impossible, we could make some match-up specific maps and slowly tweak them to get the balance/playstyle right.
|
On September 06 2025 12:24 Simplistik wrote:
It's time for...
Match-up specific maps!
It's obviously just too difficult, maybe even impossible to design maps that work well in all six match-ups and that are balanced across the three non-mirrors.
So instead of trying to do the impossible, we could make some match-up specific maps and slowly tweak them to get the balance/playstyle right.
??????????????????????? What the FUCK?
Anyway. Why not have 2 awesome, weird maps in the pool that have a 40-60 and 60-40 and you have to play them both! BALANCED. Wait, is that what you were saying? I couldn't tell.
Also, can't call PvZ imbalanced until more Protoss use dark archons. Remember the matchup was unplayable and then Bisu shat down everyone's esophagus with the phaser unit and the cloaked sword guy???
Dark archon is very unexplored. Yes I know it slows things down, but everyone says that's the way to play PvZ anyway. The biggest argument I've heard against it is that it's too hard to control. YOU GOT 500 APM. Shibal. Stop making so many dragoons, those units fucking suck. I also want to see more 2 stargate into reaver.
Who's gonna step up. Who's it gonna be. Mini lost to larva 0-99 yesterday. It's time to THINK. DIFRNT.
Sincerely,
person who doesn't even play the game
but seriously
|
yeah wait hold on. if you have a 40-60 and 60-40 for every matchup that's too many maps. but it's on the right track. i CAN FEEL IT. Like instead of matchup specific maps, maybe matchup specific map POOL. Holy shit????
Literally spent 5 seconds thinking about this. Let me cook.
edit: yeah wtf that's not bad (spent another minute on it). Like for a competitive PvZ match, you have at least 2 relatively weird and cool maps the players must play on that are let's say, at worst, 40-60/60-40 win rates. Then there are, depending on the series length, 3 more standard maps that all matchups are playing on. In a bo7, fuck man, you can have 4 relatively weird/cool maps and 3 standard maps. You can play with the ratios. How fucking SICK would that be. Holy shit you could even theme them... like a PvZ you got some Aiur shit goin on. This is the best idea. Blizz I'm avail. owner69@hotmail, send me mssg.
Like srsly dudes, srsly. This game could be even cooler if we continued to be creative with maps and these maps could not be vetoed. Just have to come up with the right system to implement it.
|
![[image loading]](https://tl.net/staff/R1CH/Happy2.gif)
i will post this here and i hope i will need it when JD is playing
|
On September 06 2025 12:24 Simplistik wrote:
It's time for...
Match-up specific maps!
It's obviously just too difficult, maybe even impossible to design maps that work well in all six match-ups and that are balanced across the three non-mirrors.
So instead of trying to do the impossible, we could make some match-up specific maps and slowly tweak them to get the balance/playstyle right.
I disagree. I said it before, mapmakers can't manipulate matchup weights. Best they can do is increase distance in which case better players exploit it better. You get impossible builds like hatchery first.
|
I don't think its worth the hassle to have maps for each of the matchups but maybe we could have a special map for mirror matches only
a map that is only played in ZvZ, TvT and PvP could look very very different from what we're used to since race balance is not an issue
basically almost infinite design freedom
but I'm not sure whether people would be willing to learn and play these maps
|
On September 06 2025 12:24 Simplistik wrote:
It's time for...
Match-up specific maps!
It's obviously just too difficult, maybe even impossible to design maps that work well in all six match-ups and that are balanced across the three non-mirrors.
So instead of trying to do the impossible, we could make some match-up specific maps and slowly tweak them to get the balance/playstyle right.
But it's not impossible to make maps that "work well" for all 6 mu's, as it's been done for a very long time? It's not reasonable to replace one map with 6 maps that are tweaked for a perfect 50/50 result.
|
On September 07 2025 04:09 Kraekkling wrote:
I don't think its worth the hassle to have maps for each of the matchups but maybe we could have a special map for mirror matches only
a map that is only played in ZvZ, TvT and PvP could look very very different from what we're used to since race balance is not an issue
basically almost infinite design freedom
but I'm not sure whether people would be willing to learn and play these maps
I think people are just not that drawn to mirror match ups. On one hand maybe because of the luck factor, and maybe because it is just not as interesting to see the same units interact with each other.
I mean there is a reason why ZvT is basicly the match- up that draws all the eye balls.
The prime times of Flash vs JD. Specificy MassBio vs Zerg.
Even ZvP is called boring because of Hydra Busts, TvPs Terran push heavy deciding.
Further, i dont think having 50/50 maps will make the game better, it will make the games more boring.
And if there is perfect way to play the game each game, than there is no point in playing the game.
I think making possible to play different strategies even vs the same race is what makes the game watchable, interesting, engaging. There should be the focus of the map makers.
And not some perfect balance based on fished stats out of some korean microwave, that some pro uses to heat his meals between games.
|
On September 05 2025 15:03 Shinokuki wrote:Show nested quote +On September 05 2025 14:57 Bonyth wrote:
imagine having a 49,4% zvp win rate and complaining about balance, because SOMA says so. If he says so, he must be right. If Stork will say that this map is heavily P favored, I will believe that. When a zerg user complains about his own race, it doesn't have much weight. I trust soma, queen, soulkey more than anyone for zerg takes because they have played these maps the most and looked for ways to abuse and win vs protoss. I ain't trusting anyone like stork, shuttle, or even you (non-pro). Not sure why you're bringing up stork. He's washed. I don't see any same complaints from other protoss because it's pretty easy for them to beat zerg in a straight up standard game but lose because of their own mistakes (i.e early game ling busts or underestimating hydra busts). The same cannot be said for zergs when it literally feels like the maps are against them (bad simcity wall, 1v1 tight gap allowing for zlot to fight 1v1 vs lings, high ground advantage for p simcity on knockout to prevent 973?? LOL and wide chokepoints. The biggest one that's been in trend is the wide chokepoints which force zergs to go for heavy hydra lurk army and maneuvering around the map with 400+ apm to prevent goon/zlot/temp army going straight to z base at 12 min mark). It used to work when z was forced to adopt this style but as p got used to it, zergs focus so much on mineral optimization and look for ways to damage p early so that they can avoid straight up standard game. Take a look at all the zvps played by soma or queen in a bo9/bo13 vs snow/best/bisu. It's hard to beat P in a standard game... all the enhancements that map makers gave to protoss allow for protoss to get away with some greedy strats which snowball into p having faster tech and eco.. Even the bo9 that soma played vs snow.. soma won 4 games with either ling busts or hydra busts. Any games that went cleanly into standard.. soma lost. Also If ZvT was also at 50% zergs would be fine with that 49.4% zvp but zvt is at like sub 40%, putting zerg stats at around below 45%.. not sure what you're aruging here? Like zergs will accept 49% zvp if it means even 49% zvt.. Who am I to believe for map balance? Random foreigners like you or top tier pros who make living off on finding the best ways to win?
Bonyth isnt some random foreigner. Give him the respect he deserves. And even Zergs players have agreed that hydra busts were kind of a problem for ZvP making it a bit to easy for Zerg at times.
Further, as we know it wasnt this the purpose. SK winning 4 in a row, everyone was on the train that maps should be antizerg.
|
On September 07 2025 05:43 Stopthevirtualaddict wrote:Show nested quote +On September 07 2025 04:09 Kraekkling wrote:
I don't think its worth the hassle to have maps for each of the matchups but maybe we could have a special map for mirror matches only
a map that is only played in ZvZ, TvT and PvP could look very very different from what we're used to since race balance is not an issue
basically almost infinite design freedom
but I'm not sure whether people would be willing to learn and play these maps I think people are just not that drawn to mirror match ups. On one hand maybe because of the luck factor, and maybe because it is just not as interesting to see the same units interact with each other. I mean there is a reason why ZvT is basicly the match- up that draws all the eye balls. The prime times of Flash vs JD. Specificy MassBio vs Zerg. Even ZvP is called boring because of Hydra Busts, TvPs Terran push heavy deciding. Further, i dont think having 50/50 maps will make the game better, it will make the games more boring. And if there is perfect way to play the game each game, than there is no point in playing the game. I think making possible to play different strategies even vs the same race is what makes the game watchable, interesting, engaging. There should be the focus of the map makers. And not some perfect balance based on fished stats out of some korean microwave, that some pro uses to heat his meals between games.
Bringing hydrabusts into the same sentence as tvz is not accurate. If zerg has hydralisks you know it is at the point of no return. You cannot win with hydralisks against terran. It is low eco build for survival when terran has outplayed zerg in the game.
|
Basically since everything previously stated unworkable has worked in pro hands, what I want next is ensnaring queens. Zerg has God awful time against Dark Archon Maelstorm which is tier 3 and take 100 mana. Queens are tier 2 and only take 75 mana. Also, queens have fastest speed and the area is 4*4, twice larger than psionic storm. Basically queens are high templars on adrenal glands upgrade. Why they haven't been used is beside me.
Some crazy strategy would involve skipping spire to develop hydralurker + queen ensnare midgame bust, earlier than defilers, yet that much faster to execute.
PS: napkin math time; the entire hydralisk tree plus 1 queen with ensnare research costs the same as 7 mutalisks. I think hydralisks and lurkers with a single queen can exert more pressure than 7 mutalisks.
PS 2: 7 mutalisks are equal to less than 5 hydralisks, however against marines they are equal to 9 hydralisks. Delving deeper, that was the attack rate comparison. However defensively, mutalisk still have an edge. Past 10 however, zerg quickly runs out of gas since it takes three times less gas to make 13 hydralisks vs 10 mutalisks, so it would take equal amount of gas for zerg to make +3 mutalisks past the initial 7 that 13 hydralisks would cost. Zerg only has a small units weakness with hydralisks which the queens sort out. With mutalisks as I said, you would need a much slower ramp up past the initial 7 and zerglings to go along with mutalisks. If we were to double army size with mutalisks, you could have 4 times as many hydralisks if you hadn't. Coupled with ensnare, you could run away with the game very easily.
TL;DR: The entire build tree takes 1000/1000 which is the same as 10 Mutalisks and 1/3 of that is the gas cost of 13 Hydralisks, so at 10 Mutalisks & 13 Hydralisks, 13 Mutalisks & 26 Hydralisks, the gas cost is the same.
|
I'm so happy matchmakers take our comments seriously. I mean JyJ and ASL15. That 7th game on 76... hopefully there will be another lucky strike. Those are game defining moments. I haven't been this optimistic for terran since the bgh shit that has been plaguing the tournament for decades. Time for some slayers boxer nostalgia!
|
Anyone know why the ASL host is new this season?
|
ALLEYCAT BLUES50596 Posts
The previous host is pregnant.
|
|
|
|
|
On September 08 2025 13:21 mtcn77 wrote:
Basically since everything previously stated unworkable has worked in pro hands, what I want next is ensnaring queens. Zerg has God awful time against Dark Archon Maelstorm which is tier 3 and take 100 mana. Queens are tier 2 and only take 75 mana. Also, queens have fastest speed and the area is 4*4, twice larger than psionic storm. Basically queens are high templars on adrenal glands upgrade. Why they haven't been used is beside me.
Some crazy strategy would involve skipping spire to develop hydralurker + queen ensnare midgame bust, earlier than defilers, yet that much faster to execute.
PS: napkin math time; the entire hydralisk tree plus 1 queen with ensnare research costs the same as 7 mutalisks. I think hydralisks and lurkers with a single queen can exert more pressure than 7 mutalisks.
PS 2: 7 mutalisks are equal to less than 5 hydralisks, however against marines they are equal to 9 hydralisks. Delving deeper, that was the attack rate comparison. However defensively, mutalisk still have an edge. Past 10 however, zerg quickly runs out of gas since it takes three times less gas to make 13 hydralisks vs 10 mutalisks, so it would take equal amount of gas for zerg to make +3 mutalisks past the initial 7 that 13 hydralisks would cost. Zerg only has a small units weakness with hydralisks which the queens sort out. With mutalisks as I said, you would need a much slower ramp up past the initial 7 and zerglings to go along with mutalisks. If we were to double army size with mutalisks, you could have 4 times as many hydralisks if you hadn't. Coupled with ensnare, you could run away with the game very easily.
TL;DR: The entire build tree takes 1000/1000 which is the same as 10 Mutalisks and 1/3 of that is the gas cost of 13 Hydralisks, so at 10 Mutalisks & 13 Hydralisks, 13 Mutalisks & 26 Hydralisks, the gas cost is the same.
I've been saying it for years. Zergs need to incorporate 1 queen and parasite into their ZvT matchups. Parasite the first science vessel. Ez GG
|
terrans will counter with restoration gg
|
Just gonna say it here... Effort is the man.
Oozes confidence, has the highest win rate in ASL out of any player except Flash (higher than Soulkey)
IMO has more potential than Soulkey as well. Soulkey's ZvZ I feel like is still a coin flip, but I would give Effort winning odds
against literally everyone except Mini
|
|
|
Sharp was willing to play Roaring Currents against Larva, so there is a slight chance that it sees play in Group C. I'm not sure what the pro evaluation is on it in TvP, especially since the last two daily pro league TvP games I saw on it featured proxy gateways that were scouted and then handled terribly by the Terran.
|
On September 12 2025 08:31 polgas wrote:
Anyone know why the ASL host is new this season?
She's married to a pro player too (an old dota 2 pro player)
|
|
|
Very interesting play-offs coming up. Hope for some sick games.
Protoss FIGHTING!
|
lmao there's a decent chance top4 is all protoss
|
On September 17 2025 22:14 seRapH wrote:
lmao there's a decent chance top4 is all protoss
I'd say that 1 Protoss in the ro4 is more likely than 4.
|
I missed the sale of tickets to see ASL live. A horror story I prefer to keep for myself, but if you intend to do it be prepared, it sold out in 15seconds, don't even think about a laptop without mouse and trying to take 2 tickets.
I will be in Seoul for the match 1 (barracks vs best) and match 2 (snow vs effort).
So now I can only ask, how I could go to see one of the matches, I'm ready to pay a higher price, to go in front of studios waiting for people to not show up, anything.
The probability that someone that got an extra spot in one the matches is near 0, since there's like 70seats lol, but I will try my luck asking everywhere. Maybe there's a way, maybe Koreans are reselling them somewhere?
If there's something I can do, let me know, I've been watching brood war before YouTube was a thing, where we shared 70mo vods on internet that took a day to DL, from now until my trip there, it will be my life mission to find a spot in one of these matches
|
On September 18 2025 19:20 PlzTicketSir wrote:
I missed the sale of tickets to see ASL live. A horror story I prefer to keep for myself, but if you intend to do it be prepared, it sold out in 15seconds, don't even think about a laptop without mouse and trying to take 2 tickets.
I will be in Seoul for the match 1 (barracks vs best) and match 2 (snow vs effort).
So now I can only ask, how I could go to see one of the matches, I'm ready to pay a higher price, to go in front of studios waiting for people to not show up, anything.
The probability that someone that got an extra spot in one the matches is near 0, since there's like 70seats lol, but I will try my luck asking everywhere. Maybe there's a way, maybe Koreans are reselling them somewhere?
If there's something I can do, let me know, I've been watching brood war before YouTube was a thing, where we shared 70mo vods on internet that took a day to DL, from now until my trip there, it will be my life mission to find a spot in one of these matches
Goodluck on your journey to get some tickets.
That aside. out of the 8 remaining, how would you rank them on terms of skills/powerlevel?
Soma
SnOw
Bisu
Best
EffOrt
Mini
Larva
Barracks
Marginal differences in skill.
|
I don't think it matters its more about the matchups.
I see Snow going to final if he can pass Effort.
On the other side I feel like Soma is ready to go to final.
|
On September 18 2025 20:36 PlzTicketSir wrote:
I don't think it matters its more about the matchups.
I see Snow going to final if he can pass Effort.
On the other side I feel like Soma is ready to go to final.
SnOw vs SoMa will be hype.
|
*Posted it again award*
By the way - Do we know the map order for each of the ro8 pairs already?
Cheers.
|
All I know is: Barracks is gonna win this season.
Get that gold for Terran.
|
That game a few ASLs ago i think RO16 it was, Barracks almost killed Mini with a vulture drop and Mini almost pulled a come back with dts / scans snipe
This series will be good.
If i was Barracks, I would cheese a bbs or something on the first game. It can break Mini right off the bat
|
Im not sure ive ever looked forwar this much for a ro8, and im a terran player. Epic matchups.
|
On September 19 2025 19:03 A.Alm wrote:
Im not sure ive ever looked forwar this much for a ro8, and im a terran player. Epic matchups.
Last season had equally good matchupa to be honest. Last season also had honestly the best best of sets in ASL history.
SnOw vs Soulkey
Queen vs Best
Best vs Soulkey
Light vs Best
The other sets from past seasons that are on par or come close would be:
ASL16: Rush vs Soulkey, Soulkey vs JyJ come close, but not on par.
ASL15: HerO vs JyJ
ASL14: RoyaL vs Soulkey and Rush vs HerO
ASL13: Rain vs SoMa and Soma vs Bisu
ASL12: Mini vs Rush
ASL11: Mini vs Larva
|
ASL 6 clear all of those respectfully. Specially when you consider that was the so called Tesagi era.
Effort vs Last
Effort vs FlaSh
is proly the most memorable series in ASL history.
 AfreecaTV/StarCraft League Remastered/6
|
19 was more about the quantity of epic sets. Bo7 contributes to that in a way, too.
|
damn it was still bo5 back then
|
The ling burrow sequence will be engraved in my memory forever.
|
This seasons R16 is kinda amazing.
Also Larva is so goddamn impressive. He doesnt just spam click he's just a smart player.
|
On September 19 2025 03:12 M3t4PhYzX wrote:
*Posted it again award*
By the way - Do we know the map order for each of the ro8 pairs already?
Cheers.
If you didn't see, someone added it to the ASL 20 page on Liquipedia.
Every Protoss player chose Roaring Currents as either their first or second choice, so it is guaranteed to be played in every series.
|
Looking at the RO8 I have a strong feeling this will be Snow's first ASL. I'm super hyped for this bracket.
|
zerg will win asl 20
|
Guys, can anyone please translate the map order for soma vs Best and Bisu vs Larva? I would be very thankful 
Cheers!
|
ALLEYCAT BLUES50596 Posts
its updated on liquipedia
ASL/20
|
Yeah, I knew that. I see only 6 maps per series though, instead of 7.
Oh well.. thanks, anyway.
|
Puh, that snow vs effort series.
First game was so good…
And the rest was basically, one player came prepared, the other had his homework leaked online. Mindgamed, strategy found out, while not even starting it. Totally outclassed.
|
Haha this is gold reading how people dissect every match, every player swap, and even micro-decisions makes me nostalgic for that brood war scene. Also, “Mini is hilarious… amazing player who makes CPL tier mistakes” made me actually laugh out loud.
|
After what happened in Best and Snow's series vs Soulkey last ASL, the protoss race and the protoss fans deserve a Best vs Snow final to battle it out who is the alpha protoss atm
|
On September 25 2025 02:33 Stopthevirtualaddict wrote:
Puh, that snow vs effort series.
First game was so good…
And the rest was basically, one player came prepared, the other had his homework leaked online. Mindgamed, strategy found out, while not even starting it. Totally outclassed.
Yeah, the contrast between the first set and the other four was quite stark. First I was worried for Snow, then I was laughing in disbelief.
|
On September 26 2025 00:00 Simplistik wrote:Show nested quote +On September 25 2025 02:33 Stopthevirtualaddict wrote:
Puh, that snow vs effort series.
First game was so good…
And the rest was basically, one player came prepared, the other had his homework leaked online. Mindgamed, strategy found out, while not even starting it. Totally outclassed. Yeah, the contrast between the first set and the other four was quite stark. First I was worried for Snow, then I was laughing in disbelief.
Effort had a gameplan for every map. The problem is Snow is just too good. He won on the weirdest map, and the other maps weren't weird enough to overcome the disparity in raw skill.
Don't get me wrong, I think Effort is the greatest ZvT player of all time. But ZvP was never his most notable matchup.
|
On September 26 2025 03:05 ThunderJunk wrote:Show nested quote +On September 26 2025 00:00 Simplistik wrote:On September 25 2025 02:33 Stopthevirtualaddict wrote:
Puh, that snow vs effort series.
First game was so good…
And the rest was basically, one player came prepared, the other had his homework leaked online. Mindgamed, strategy found out, while not even starting it. Totally outclassed. Yeah, the contrast between the first set and the other four was quite stark. First I was worried for Snow, then I was laughing in disbelief. Effort had a gameplan for every map. The problem is Snow is just too good. He won on the weirdest map, and the other maps weren't weird enough to overcome the disparity in raw skill. Don't get me wrong, I think Effort is the greatest ZvT player of all time. But ZvP was never his most notable matchup.
He likely had a gameplan, however it was thwarted in the early game and never mattered. His responses Snow's openings were simply not what he would have done in the past. Meanwhile his ZvP is only not talked about because who was the mega PvZ threat during his peak really? But he has had plenty of games where he setup to play PvZ just like he played PvT back then and he won those matches, long brutal macro games that eventually forced his opponents hand or had such an economic advantage that there was no way for them to overcome what he had. But I don't think his PvT "skill" was what lead him to beat flash, it was not being short sighted no forced muta or lurker plays, but instead more drones more hatcheries, more defense, more economy until he could use his APM to spread you out so thin you couldn't maintain your 3rd or 4th or 5th base.
Snow though clearly improved, and I appreciate the use of underutilized reavers.
|
On September 26 2025 00:00 Simplistik wrote:Show nested quote +On September 25 2025 02:33 Stopthevirtualaddict wrote:
Puh, that snow vs effort series.
First game was so good…
And the rest was basically, one player came prepared, the other had his homework leaked online. Mindgamed, strategy found out, while not even starting it. Totally outclassed. Yeah, the contrast between the first set and the other four was quite stark. First I was worried for Snow, then I was laughing in disbelief.
Yeah after game 1
I really thought Effort had a chance then Snow reminded us he is Snow LOL
There aint no Soulkey stopping that dude now. Although apparently he has terrible head to head against Soma so we will see. Otherwise i'm feeling nobody can stop him this tournament
|
On September 26 2025 03:05 ThunderJunk wrote:Show nested quote +On September 26 2025 00:00 Simplistik wrote:On September 25 2025 02:33 Stopthevirtualaddict wrote:
Puh, that snow vs effort series.
First game was so good…
And the rest was basically, one player came prepared, the other had his homework leaked online. Mindgamed, strategy found out, while not even starting it. Totally outclassed. Yeah, the contrast between the first set and the other four was quite stark. First I was worried for Snow, then I was laughing in disbelief. Effort had a gameplan for every map. The problem is Snow is just too good. He won on the weirdest map, and the other maps weren't weird enough to overcome the disparity in raw skill. Don't get me wrong, I think Effort is the greatest ZvT player of all time. But ZvP was never his most notable matchup.
These days it's more about luck than skill. '' the disparity in raw skill '' u cant say this from these games. game 2,3 was nexus first which was big advantage for Snow( this is why u saw 4 lings try to run because zerg have do something) if u are not x2-x3 better then, gg as zerg. On Litmus the probe drill and saw hydra was a huge and little bit lucky moment from Snow because the lings in this time here on his main so could have easily caught his probes (2) and if catch probably gg for Snow. The last game well i dont wanna say what EffOrt feels on the moment and why he played that what he played but it was the first mistake from him( its true 1:3 probably doesnt matter ) i mean if u are not better than your opponent 2x-3x then just not play macro game in zvp because then this will be C vs S u have to do something early or mid game. And his zvp was same god level as his zvt i think but ya nowadays Snow probably way better but not from these games.
|
BO advantages are certainly underrated.
But beyond that...Effort played great in game one, but last game was underwhelming.
I know he can multitask much better. It's not rare to see him play turtle style and then just destroy P's, attacking four places at one with runby cracklings and drops, to the point that the P just isn't fast enough to storm all screens simultaneously. When he plays like that, he can beat anyone with hive, at least on maps that aren't 2 player where there just isn't as much action to be had.
Instead, he kinda kept attacking at one place at the same time, maybe two, while not really spending his money. The counterattacks were also often late, starting to move across the map when Snow was already hitting his own bases.
Effort did not regain top form yet, and probably wasn't in a great condition on the day.
Snow didn't look that impressive, either. Soma will eat him alive.
|
On September 26 2025 20:54 Soulforged wrote:
BO advantages are certainly underrated.
But beyond that...Effort played great in game one, but last game was underwhelming.
I know he can multitask much better. It's not rare to see him play turtle style and then just destroy P's, attacking four places at one with runby cracklings and drops, to the point that the P just isn't fast enough to storm all screens simultaneously. When he plays like that, he can beat anyone with hive, at least on maps that aren't 2 player where there just isn't as much action to be had.
Instead, he kinda kept attacking at one place at the same time, maybe two, while not really spending his money. The counterattacks were also often late, starting to move across the map when Snow was already hitting his own bases.
Effort did not regain top form yet, and probably wasn't in a great condition on the day.
Snow didn't look that impressive, either. Soma will eat him alive.
i fear you are living in 2010 zvp era. Games are not really like that anymore.
|
I have got to be real with you guys.
It's killing me that the next game are next week. I need them now. I need my Ro4 Barracks v SnOw match. I need Soma Bisu.
|
On September 26 2025 20:54 Soulforged wrote:
BO advantages are certainly underrated.
But beyond that...Effort played great in game one, but last game was underwhelming.
I know he can multitask much better. It's not rare to see him play turtle style and then just destroy P's, attacking four places at one with runby cracklings and drops, to the point that the P just isn't fast enough to storm all screens simultaneously. When he plays like that, he can beat anyone with hive, at least on maps that aren't 2 player where there just isn't as much action to be had.
Instead, he kinda kept attacking at one place at the same time, maybe two, while not really spending his money. The counterattacks were also often late, starting to move across the map when Snow was already hitting his own bases.
Effort did not regain top form yet, and probably wasn't in a great condition on the day.
Snow didn't look that impressive, either. Soma will eat him alive.
Snow lookes very impressive to me. His cost efficiency was absurd in most of the games. He was getting more results in terms of minerals/gas spent vs minerals/gas killed than anyone else.
|
On September 26 2025 18:52 sas.Sziky wrote:Show nested quote +On September 26 2025 03:05 ThunderJunk wrote:On September 26 2025 00:00 Simplistik wrote:On September 25 2025 02:33 Stopthevirtualaddict wrote:
Puh, that snow vs effort series.
First game was so good…
And the rest was basically, one player came prepared, the other had his homework leaked online. Mindgamed, strategy found out, while not even starting it. Totally outclassed. Yeah, the contrast between the first set and the other four was quite stark. First I was worried for Snow, then I was laughing in disbelief. Effort had a gameplan for every map. The problem is Snow is just too good. He won on the weirdest map, and the other maps weren't weird enough to overcome the disparity in raw skill. Don't get me wrong, I think Effort is the greatest ZvT player of all time. But ZvP was never his most notable matchup. These days it's more about luck than skill. '' the disparity in raw skill '' u cant say this from these games. game 2,3 was nexus first which was big advantage for Snow( this is why u saw 4 lings try to run because zerg have do something) if u are not x2-x3 better then, gg as zerg. On Litmus the probe drill and saw hydra was a huge and little bit lucky moment from Snow because the lings in this time here on his main so could have easily caught his probes (2) and if catch probably gg for Snow. The last game well i dont wanna say what EffOrt feels on the moment and why he played that what he played but it was the first mistake from him( its true 1:3 probably doesnt matter ) i mean if u are not better than your opponent 2x-3x then just not play macro game in zvp because then this will be C vs S u have to do something early or mid game. And his zvp was same god level as his zvt i think but ya nowadays Snow probably way better but not from these games.
I think you have a decently fair point here. I do also think though that Effort deciding never to go hatch-first in the series is a bit telling about how he felt his chances were against Snow in "Honorable macro games".
|
Maybe.
My mind isn't really going to 2010 when I say that though, but to an occasional stream/proleague/ladder game with flashes of mechanical brilliance from players like Effort or JD. Those games make me think again that the matchup is more about multitasking than mind games.
But they don't really maintain those peaks anymore.
Meanwhile, Soma seems to maintain it.
I guess we'll see.
|
On September 27 2025 04:17 ThunderJunk wrote:Show nested quote +On September 26 2025 18:52 sas.Sziky wrote:On September 26 2025 03:05 ThunderJunk wrote:On September 26 2025 00:00 Simplistik wrote:On September 25 2025 02:33 Stopthevirtualaddict wrote:
Puh, that snow vs effort series.
First game was so good…
And the rest was basically, one player came prepared, the other had his homework leaked online. Mindgamed, strategy found out, while not even starting it. Totally outclassed. Yeah, the contrast between the first set and the other four was quite stark. First I was worried for Snow, then I was laughing in disbelief. Effort had a gameplan for every map. The problem is Snow is just too good. He won on the weirdest map, and the other maps weren't weird enough to overcome the disparity in raw skill. Don't get me wrong, I think Effort is the greatest ZvT player of all time. But ZvP was never his most notable matchup. These days it's more about luck than skill. '' the disparity in raw skill '' u cant say this from these games. game 2,3 was nexus first which was big advantage for Snow( this is why u saw 4 lings try to run because zerg have do something) if u are not x2-x3 better then, gg as zerg. On Litmus the probe drill and saw hydra was a huge and little bit lucky moment from Snow because the lings in this time here on his main so could have easily caught his probes (2) and if catch probably gg for Snow. The last game well i dont wanna say what EffOrt feels on the moment and why he played that what he played but it was the first mistake from him( its true 1:3 probably doesnt matter ) i mean if u are not better than your opponent 2x-3x then just not play macro game in zvp because then this will be C vs S u have to do something early or mid game. And his zvp was same god level as his zvt i think but ya nowadays Snow probably way better but not from these games. I think you have a decently fair point here. I do also think though that Effort deciding never to go hatch-first in the series is a bit telling about how he felt his chances were against Snow in "Honorable macro games".
Effort went hatchery first on Dominator.The thing about going hatchery first these days is that canon Rush is a real issue cuz of the spots that prevent drones to effectively fight it back. So sometimes even if you defend it you can be in a real bad spot. I dont personally blame him for no trying it more. Could have been interesting to see more 9pool from him tho. That proly would have worked against Snow mindgames better. But this is also easier to say when the series are done and we know the result. Cuz him having go 9pool multiple times and then snow going forge first instead of Nexus is also the other side of the coin that put zerg also in economic distress. Thats the thing with this risky build orders. This series this worked fantastic for Snow. But could have been terrible if he was facing 9pool.
|
On September 27 2025 07:57 Soulforged wrote:
Maybe.
My mind isn't really going to 2010 when I say that though, but to an occasional stream/proleague/ladder game with flashes of mechanical brilliance from players like Effort or JD. Those games make me think again that the matchup is more about multitasking than mind games.
But they don't really maintain those peaks anymore.
Meanwhile, Soma seems to maintain it.
I guess we'll see.
Yeah but the reality of zvp these days is not that at all. Yeah sure sometimes it happens. i remember a game of Jaedong vs Snow that Snow for some reason didnt push JD for 12 minutes and allowed him to get to 60 drones in 8 minutes and from there it was horde after horde of units until he tap out. But the mechanical level is not that far from each other these days where you find a Protoss overwhelmed by zerg units. It has to be that either he is super behind or there is an insane level disparity like lets say Effort vs Tyson or Effort vs YSC. But from the top guys specially on these new maps era that everything is so easy to wall. Every expansion is so easy to defend. And almost no defensive positions for zerg player to setup a 4 base. Is pretty rare to see a protoss just freaking out cuz there are many units.
|
Is there a kcm megathread ? That recent KCM by speed and snow is kinda impressive
Speed has real potential I just dont see him do such thing in ASL somehow
|
On September 26 2025 03:05 ThunderJunk wrote:Show nested quote +On September 26 2025 00:00 Simplistik wrote:On September 25 2025 02:33 Stopthevirtualaddict wrote:
Puh, that snow vs effort series.
First game was so good…
And the rest was basically, one player came prepared, the other had his homework leaked online. Mindgamed, strategy found out, while not even starting it. Totally outclassed. Yeah, the contrast between the first set and the other four was quite stark. First I was worried for Snow, then I was laughing in disbelief. Effort had a gameplan for every map. The problem is Snow is just too good. He won on the weirdest map, and the other maps weren't weird enough to overcome the disparity in raw skill. Don't get me wrong, I think Effort is the greatest ZvT player of all time. But ZvP was never his most notable matchup.
his zvp winrate always was better tham his zvt though. Anyway, I hate seeing effort falling low against lower class player because he didnt put the effort into it, no pun intended. I wonder if he will ever go all out again in the future, but i doubt. Looks like soma is the future now, he never had his moment of glory.
|
Mini is better than Barracks
|
On September 28 2025 10:01 Azhi_Dahaki wrote:
Mini is better than Barracks
If he were, he wouldn't have taken such a huge risk in game 7. Going Nexus first in the final game of a series says he doesn't think he would win a straight up game.
|
On September 28 2025 10:15 RogueTheGOAT wrote:If he were, he wouldn't have taken such a huge risk in game 7. Going Nexus first in the final game of a series says he doesn't think he would win a straight up game.
Nexus first is a very common Mini thing on 4 player maps. Barracks and Mini are about equally good. Just statistic variations alone means one of the two will win a best of set, and that winrates will fluctuate up and down. Most players are about equally good and only a few are real true outliers who consistently win. Even with 55%/45% win rates someone can win or lose 5-10 in a row against a worse or better player given the sample size is big enough.
|
On September 28 2025 19:56 RJBTVYOUTUBE wrote:Show nested quote +On September 28 2025 10:15 RogueTheGOAT wrote:On September 28 2025 10:01 Azhi_Dahaki wrote:
Mini is better than Barracks If he were, he wouldn't have taken such a huge risk in game 7. Going Nexus first in the final game of a series says he doesn't think he would win a straight up game. Nexus first is a very common Mini thing on 4 player maps. Barracks and Mini are about equally good. Just statistic variations alone means one of the two will win a best of set, and that winrates will fluctuate up and down. Most players are about equally good and only a few are real true outliers who consistently win. Even with 55%/45% win rates someone can win or lose 5-10 in a row against a worse or better player given the sample size is big enough.
Everyone and their mother knew that Mini was going Nexus first. The better player does not employ a strategy that has a 33% of working and that 33% being spawn position luck. A player takes that gamble if and only if they don't think they can win without a massive advantage.
|
On September 27 2025 07:57 Soulforged wrote:
Maybe.
My mind isn't really going to 2010 when I say that though, but to an occasional stream/proleague/ladder game with flashes of mechanical brilliance from players like Effort or JD. Those games make me think again that the matchup is more about multitasking than mind games.
But they don't really maintain those peaks anymore.
Meanwhile, Soma seems to maintain it.
I guess we'll see.
The game has changed. They didn't have mineral boosting back, then. It is a wonderful kaleidoscope of timeline like, the game comes with its timestamp meta data. I do like old games, but sometimes you need to look into the future.
These new maps could bring back a Boxer of sorts into the terran roster. Speed learns pretty quick. I give him a shot.
|
On September 20 2025 09:37 RogueTheGOAT wrote:Show nested quote +On September 19 2025 03:12 M3t4PhYzX wrote:
*Posted it again award*
By the way - Do we know the map order for each of the ro8 pairs already?
Cheers. If you didn't see, someone added it to the ASL 20 page on Liquipedia. Every Protoss player chose Roaring Currents as either their first or second choice, so it is guaranteed to be played in every series.
Really, though, is that a thing? I haven't seen many protoss players utilising the map like they are supposed to.
|
On September 28 2025 22:24 RogueTheGOAT wrote:Show nested quote +On September 28 2025 19:56 RJBTVYOUTUBE wrote:On September 28 2025 10:15 RogueTheGOAT wrote:On September 28 2025 10:01 Azhi_Dahaki wrote:
Mini is better than Barracks If he were, he wouldn't have taken such a huge risk in game 7. Going Nexus first in the final game of a series says he doesn't think he would win a straight up game. Nexus first is a very common Mini thing on 4 player maps. Barracks and Mini are about equally good. Just statistic variations alone means one of the two will win a best of set, and that winrates will fluctuate up and down. Most players are about equally good and only a few are real true outliers who consistently win. Even with 55%/45% win rates someone can win or lose 5-10 in a row against a worse or better player given the sample size is big enough. Everyone and their mother knew that Mini was going Nexus first. The better player does not employ a strategy that has a 33% of working and that 33% being spawn position luck. A player takes that gamble if and only if they don't think they can win without a massive advantage.
If you talk about gamble then Barracks' BBS is way more of a gamble than Mini's Nexus first.
Nexus first can survive against any Terran openings other than proxy BBS.
The proxy BBS that Barracks did loses against any Protoss openings other than Nexus first, and even with Nexus first, it still has 33% chance to fail if Mini spawned top left.
|
On September 29 2025 07:24 TMNT wrote:Show nested quote +On September 28 2025 22:24 RogueTheGOAT wrote:On September 28 2025 19:56 RJBTVYOUTUBE wrote:On September 28 2025 10:15 RogueTheGOAT wrote:On September 28 2025 10:01 Azhi_Dahaki wrote:
Mini is better than Barracks If he were, he wouldn't have taken such a huge risk in game 7. Going Nexus first in the final game of a series says he doesn't think he would win a straight up game. Nexus first is a very common Mini thing on 4 player maps. Barracks and Mini are about equally good. Just statistic variations alone means one of the two will win a best of set, and that winrates will fluctuate up and down. Most players are about equally good and only a few are real true outliers who consistently win. Even with 55%/45% win rates someone can win or lose 5-10 in a row against a worse or better player given the sample size is big enough. Everyone and their mother knew that Mini was going Nexus first. The better player does not employ a strategy that has a 33% of working and that 33% being spawn position luck. A player takes that gamble if and only if they don't think they can win without a massive advantage. If you talk about gamble then Barracks' BBS is way more of a gamble than Mini's Nexus first. Nexus first can survive against any Terran openings other than proxy BBS. The proxy BBS that Barracks did loses against any Protoss openings other than Nexus first, and even with Nexus first, it still has 33% chance to fail if Mini spawned top left.
Come on, not everyone knows who you are on TL. Some people might just read your post and actually believe it, lol. Your serious tone when spitting those foolishs affirmations is off the chart. Calm down, bro
|
On September 29 2025 07:24 TMNT wrote:Show nested quote +On September 28 2025 22:24 RogueTheGOAT wrote:On September 28 2025 19:56 RJBTVYOUTUBE wrote:On September 28 2025 10:15 RogueTheGOAT wrote:On September 28 2025 10:01 Azhi_Dahaki wrote:
Mini is better than Barracks If he were, he wouldn't have taken such a huge risk in game 7. Going Nexus first in the final game of a series says he doesn't think he would win a straight up game. Nexus first is a very common Mini thing on 4 player maps. Barracks and Mini are about equally good. Just statistic variations alone means one of the two will win a best of set, and that winrates will fluctuate up and down. Most players are about equally good and only a few are real true outliers who consistently win. Even with 55%/45% win rates someone can win or lose 5-10 in a row against a worse or better player given the sample size is big enough. Everyone and their mother knew that Mini was going Nexus first. The better player does not employ a strategy that has a 33% of working and that 33% being spawn position luck. A player takes that gamble if and only if they don't think they can win without a massive advantage. If you talk about gamble then Barracks' BBS is way more of a gamble than Mini's Nexus first. Nexus first can survive against any Terran openings other than proxy BBS. The proxy BBS that Barracks did loses against any Protoss openings other than Nexus first, and even with Nexus first, it still has 33% chance to fail if Mini spawned top left.
Players can and should make choices that maximize their expected outcome. Since it was game 7, let's say that the baseline chance of winning is 50% (I'm assuming the map is not particularly favored either way since neither player picked it), and therefore, anything that results in a higher than 50% chance of winning is a smart play.
If you say that there was a 75% of Mini doing a Nexus First, then .75 * .66 = 49.5%.
Let's say that BBS against any build other than Nexus first has a 10% win rate if placed on the correct side of the map. That's .25 * .66 * .1 = 1.65%
49.5% + 1.65% = 51.15%
If you say that there was a 90% of Mini doing a Nexus First, then .90 * .66 = 59.4%.
.1 * .66 * .1 = 0.66%
59.4+0.66 = 60.1%
Barracks's decision to go for a BBS was a gamble in the sense that it largely took the results out of his hands, but it was not a risky play as it maximized his chance of victory. If you could tell a player going into a game 7 that if they do X that they'll have a 60.1% of winning, the only reason to NOT make that choice is that the consequences of losing and being clowned online could outweigh the benefits of winning the series.
|
On September 29 2025 08:12 RogueTheGOAT wrote:Show nested quote +On September 29 2025 07:24 TMNT wrote:On September 28 2025 22:24 RogueTheGOAT wrote:On September 28 2025 19:56 RJBTVYOUTUBE wrote:On September 28 2025 10:15 RogueTheGOAT wrote:On September 28 2025 10:01 Azhi_Dahaki wrote:
Mini is better than Barracks If he were, he wouldn't have taken such a huge risk in game 7. Going Nexus first in the final game of a series says he doesn't think he would win a straight up game. Nexus first is a very common Mini thing on 4 player maps. Barracks and Mini are about equally good. Just statistic variations alone means one of the two will win a best of set, and that winrates will fluctuate up and down. Most players are about equally good and only a few are real true outliers who consistently win. Even with 55%/45% win rates someone can win or lose 5-10 in a row against a worse or better player given the sample size is big enough. Everyone and their mother knew that Mini was going Nexus first. The better player does not employ a strategy that has a 33% of working and that 33% being spawn position luck. A player takes that gamble if and only if they don't think they can win without a massive advantage. If you talk about gamble then Barracks' BBS is way more of a gamble than Mini's Nexus first. Nexus first can survive against any Terran openings other than proxy BBS. The proxy BBS that Barracks did loses against any Protoss openings other than Nexus first, and even with Nexus first, it still has 33% chance to fail if Mini spawned top left. Players can and should make choices that maximize their expected outcome. Since it was game 7, let's say that the baseline chance of winning is 50% (I'm assuming the map is not particularly favored either way since neither player picked it), and therefore, anything that results in a higher than 50% chance of winning is a smart play. If you say that there was a 75% of Mini doing a Nexus First, then .75 * .66 = 49.5%. Let's say that BBS against any build other than Nexus first has a 10% win rate if placed on the correct side of the map. That's .25 * .66 * .1 = 1.65% 49.5% + 1.65% = 51.15% If you say that there was a 90% of Mini doing a Nexus First, then .90 * .66 = 59.4%. .1 * .66 * .1 = 0.66% 59.4+0.66 = 60.1% Barracks's decision to go for a BBS was a gamble in the sense that it largely took the results out of his hands, but it was not a risky play as it maximized his chance of victory. If you could tell a player going into a game 7 that if they do X that they'll have a 60.1% of winning, the only reason to NOT make that choice is that the consequences of losing and being clowned online could outweigh the benefits of winning the series.
I never understood why mini did that on Radeon of all games. It was an auto win if he did nexus first on game 2@Roaring Currents. I cannot believe nobody noticed that map is anti greed punish proof due to the way the map is structured. Map awareness seems lacking this season, or I'm reading too much into this.
|
On September 29 2025 08:19 mtcn77 wrote:Show nested quote +On September 29 2025 08:12 RogueTheGOAT wrote:On September 29 2025 07:24 TMNT wrote:On September 28 2025 22:24 RogueTheGOAT wrote:On September 28 2025 19:56 RJBTVYOUTUBE wrote:On September 28 2025 10:15 RogueTheGOAT wrote:On September 28 2025 10:01 Azhi_Dahaki wrote:
Mini is better than Barracks If he were, he wouldn't have taken such a huge risk in game 7. Going Nexus first in the final game of a series says he doesn't think he would win a straight up game. Nexus first is a very common Mini thing on 4 player maps. Barracks and Mini are about equally good. Just statistic variations alone means one of the two will win a best of set, and that winrates will fluctuate up and down. Most players are about equally good and only a few are real true outliers who consistently win. Even with 55%/45% win rates someone can win or lose 5-10 in a row against a worse or better player given the sample size is big enough. Everyone and their mother knew that Mini was going Nexus first. The better player does not employ a strategy that has a 33% of working and that 33% being spawn position luck. A player takes that gamble if and only if they don't think they can win without a massive advantage. If you talk about gamble then Barracks' BBS is way more of a gamble than Mini's Nexus first. Nexus first can survive against any Terran openings other than proxy BBS. The proxy BBS that Barracks did loses against any Protoss openings other than Nexus first, and even with Nexus first, it still has 33% chance to fail if Mini spawned top left. Players can and should make choices that maximize their expected outcome. Since it was game 7, let's say that the baseline chance of winning is 50% (I'm assuming the map is not particularly favored either way since neither player picked it), and therefore, anything that results in a higher than 50% chance of winning is a smart play. If you say that there was a 75% of Mini doing a Nexus First, then .75 * .66 = 49.5%. Let's say that BBS against any build other than Nexus first has a 10% win rate if placed on the correct side of the map. That's .25 * .66 * .1 = 1.65% 49.5% + 1.65% = 51.15% If you say that there was a 90% of Mini doing a Nexus First, then .90 * .66 = 59.4%. .1 * .66 * .1 = 0.66% 59.4+0.66 = 60.1% Barracks's decision to go for a BBS was a gamble in the sense that it largely took the results out of his hands, but it was not a risky play as it maximized his chance of victory. If you could tell a player going into a game 7 that if they do X that they'll have a 60.1% of winning, the only reason to NOT make that choice is that the consequences of losing and being clowned online could outweigh the benefits of winning the series. I never understood why mini did that on Radeon of all games. It was an auto win if he did nexus first on game 2@Roaring Currents. I cannot believe nobody noticed that map is anti greed punish proof due to the way the map is structured. Map awareness seems lacking this season, or I'm reading too much into this.
Mini did go for a 12 Nexus on Roaring Currents.
Barracks went for a tech build because the meta in daily proleague has evolved to feature a LOT of double proxy gates.
|
On September 29 2025 08:45 RogueTheGOAT wrote:Show nested quote +On September 29 2025 08:19 mtcn77 wrote:On September 29 2025 08:12 RogueTheGOAT wrote:On September 29 2025 07:24 TMNT wrote:On September 28 2025 22:24 RogueTheGOAT wrote:On September 28 2025 19:56 RJBTVYOUTUBE wrote:On September 28 2025 10:15 RogueTheGOAT wrote:On September 28 2025 10:01 Azhi_Dahaki wrote:
Mini is better than Barracks If he were, he wouldn't have taken such a huge risk in game 7. Going Nexus first in the final game of a series says he doesn't think he would win a straight up game. Nexus first is a very common Mini thing on 4 player maps. Barracks and Mini are about equally good. Just statistic variations alone means one of the two will win a best of set, and that winrates will fluctuate up and down. Most players are about equally good and only a few are real true outliers who consistently win. Even with 55%/45% win rates someone can win or lose 5-10 in a row against a worse or better player given the sample size is big enough. Everyone and their mother knew that Mini was going Nexus first. The better player does not employ a strategy that has a 33% of working and that 33% being spawn position luck. A player takes that gamble if and only if they don't think they can win without a massive advantage. If you talk about gamble then Barracks' BBS is way more of a gamble than Mini's Nexus first. Nexus first can survive against any Terran openings other than proxy BBS. The proxy BBS that Barracks did loses against any Protoss openings other than Nexus first, and even with Nexus first, it still has 33% chance to fail if Mini spawned top left. Players can and should make choices that maximize their expected outcome. Since it was game 7, let's say that the baseline chance of winning is 50% (I'm assuming the map is not particularly favored either way since neither player picked it), and therefore, anything that results in a higher than 50% chance of winning is a smart play. If you say that there was a 75% of Mini doing a Nexus First, then .75 * .66 = 49.5%. Let's say that BBS against any build other than Nexus first has a 10% win rate if placed on the correct side of the map. That's .25 * .66 * .1 = 1.65% 49.5% + 1.65% = 51.15% If you say that there was a 90% of Mini doing a Nexus First, then .90 * .66 = 59.4%. .1 * .66 * .1 = 0.66% 59.4+0.66 = 60.1% Barracks's decision to go for a BBS was a gamble in the sense that it largely took the results out of his hands, but it was not a risky play as it maximized his chance of victory. If you could tell a player going into a game 7 that if they do X that they'll have a 60.1% of winning, the only reason to NOT make that choice is that the consequences of losing and being clowned online could outweigh the benefits of winning the series. I never understood why mini did that on Radeon of all games. It was an auto win if he did nexus first on game 2@Roaring Currents. I cannot believe nobody noticed that map is anti greed punish proof due to the way the map is structured. Map awareness seems lacking this season, or I'm reading too much into this. Mini did go for a 12 Nexus on Roaring Currents. Barracks went for a tech build because the meta in daily proleague has evolved to feature a LOT of double proxy gates.
Wow, wow, at that point(3:40) tasteless guessed, then why would you not double proxy barracks cheese? He let it slip and mini did it on game 7 again and lost both games. Just wow...
PS: looks like mini had the map advantage and squandered it. All he had to do was play a normal core dragoon opening. He even had the option to take the bridge and do a little early aggression. Then he sent dragoons to the natural, reaver to the island. It sounds wrong the more I put it to words.
|
On September 29 2025 08:19 mtcn77 wrote:Show nested quote +On September 29 2025 08:12 RogueTheGOAT wrote:On September 29 2025 07:24 TMNT wrote:On September 28 2025 22:24 RogueTheGOAT wrote:On September 28 2025 19:56 RJBTVYOUTUBE wrote:On September 28 2025 10:15 RogueTheGOAT wrote:On September 28 2025 10:01 Azhi_Dahaki wrote:
Mini is better than Barracks If he were, he wouldn't have taken such a huge risk in game 7. Going Nexus first in the final game of a series says he doesn't think he would win a straight up game. Nexus first is a very common Mini thing on 4 player maps. Barracks and Mini are about equally good. Just statistic variations alone means one of the two will win a best of set, and that winrates will fluctuate up and down. Most players are about equally good and only a few are real true outliers who consistently win. Even with 55%/45% win rates someone can win or lose 5-10 in a row against a worse or better player given the sample size is big enough. Everyone and their mother knew that Mini was going Nexus first. The better player does not employ a strategy that has a 33% of working and that 33% being spawn position luck. A player takes that gamble if and only if they don't think they can win without a massive advantage. If you talk about gamble then Barracks' BBS is way more of a gamble than Mini's Nexus first. Nexus first can survive against any Terran openings other than proxy BBS. The proxy BBS that Barracks did loses against any Protoss openings other than Nexus first, and even with Nexus first, it still has 33% chance to fail if Mini spawned top left. Players can and should make choices that maximize their expected outcome. Since it was game 7, let's say that the baseline chance of winning is 50% (I'm assuming the map is not particularly favored either way since neither player picked it), and therefore, anything that results in a higher than 50% chance of winning is a smart play. If you say that there was a 75% of Mini doing a Nexus First, then .75 * .66 = 49.5%. Let's say that BBS against any build other than Nexus first has a 10% win rate if placed on the correct side of the map. That's .25 * .66 * .1 = 1.65% 49.5% + 1.65% = 51.15% If you say that there was a 90% of Mini doing a Nexus First, then .90 * .66 = 59.4%. .1 * .66 * .1 = 0.66% 59.4+0.66 = 60.1% Barracks's decision to go for a BBS was a gamble in the sense that it largely took the results out of his hands, but it was not a risky play as it maximized his chance of victory. If you could tell a player going into a game 7 that if they do X that they'll have a 60.1% of winning, the only reason to NOT make that choice is that the consequences of losing and being clowned online could outweigh the benefits of winning the series. I never understood why mini did that on Radeon of all games. It was an auto win if he did nexus first on game 2@Roaring Currents. I cannot believe nobody noticed that map is anti greed punish proof due to the way the map is structured. Map awareness seems lacking this season, or I'm reading too much into this.
I have a strong suspicion that the pros whose livelihood partially depends on them knowing the map well enough (particularly in the final RoX stages of tournaments) have more map awareness than you do.
For example, perhaps 12 Nexus is the default strategy for a reason? Maybe Protoss can and should get an early lead on this map to prevent something worse from happening later? Mini probably won 70%+ of his practice games using this strategy, against other pro players who were also trying to figure out the map, maybe he knew more than a random poster on TL who doesn't play the game at a high level?
Everyone makes mistakes. Appeals to authority are not proof. I know all of this, but somehow it seems more likely to me that he had a good idea of what he was going to do and why on this map, and that it was likely better than your understanding of the dynamics of the pro scene even if Mini ended up losing Game 7.
|
On September 29 2025 11:22 Jealous wrote:Show nested quote +On September 29 2025 08:19 mtcn77 wrote:On September 29 2025 08:12 RogueTheGOAT wrote:On September 29 2025 07:24 TMNT wrote:On September 28 2025 22:24 RogueTheGOAT wrote:On September 28 2025 19:56 RJBTVYOUTUBE wrote:On September 28 2025 10:15 RogueTheGOAT wrote:On September 28 2025 10:01 Azhi_Dahaki wrote:
Mini is better than Barracks If he were, he wouldn't have taken such a huge risk in game 7. Going Nexus first in the final game of a series says he doesn't think he would win a straight up game. Nexus first is a very common Mini thing on 4 player maps. Barracks and Mini are about equally good. Just statistic variations alone means one of the two will win a best of set, and that winrates will fluctuate up and down. Most players are about equally good and only a few are real true outliers who consistently win. Even with 55%/45% win rates someone can win or lose 5-10 in a row against a worse or better player given the sample size is big enough. Everyone and their mother knew that Mini was going Nexus first. The better player does not employ a strategy that has a 33% of working and that 33% being spawn position luck. A player takes that gamble if and only if they don't think they can win without a massive advantage. If you talk about gamble then Barracks' BBS is way more of a gamble than Mini's Nexus first. Nexus first can survive against any Terran openings other than proxy BBS. The proxy BBS that Barracks did loses against any Protoss openings other than Nexus first, and even with Nexus first, it still has 33% chance to fail if Mini spawned top left. Players can and should make choices that maximize their expected outcome. Since it was game 7, let's say that the baseline chance of winning is 50% (I'm assuming the map is not particularly favored either way since neither player picked it), and therefore, anything that results in a higher than 50% chance of winning is a smart play. If you say that there was a 75% of Mini doing a Nexus First, then .75 * .66 = 49.5%. Let's say that BBS against any build other than Nexus first has a 10% win rate if placed on the correct side of the map. That's .25 * .66 * .1 = 1.65% 49.5% + 1.65% = 51.15% If you say that there was a 90% of Mini doing a Nexus First, then .90 * .66 = 59.4%. .1 * .66 * .1 = 0.66% 59.4+0.66 = 60.1% Barracks's decision to go for a BBS was a gamble in the sense that it largely took the results out of his hands, but it was not a risky play as it maximized his chance of victory. If you could tell a player going into a game 7 that if they do X that they'll have a 60.1% of winning, the only reason to NOT make that choice is that the consequences of losing and being clowned online could outweigh the benefits of winning the series. I never understood why mini did that on Radeon of all games. It was an auto win if he did nexus first on game 2@Roaring Currents. I cannot believe nobody noticed that map is anti greed punish proof due to the way the map is structured. Map awareness seems lacking this season, or I'm reading too much into this. I have a strong suspicion that the pros whose livelihood partially depends on them knowing the map well enough (particularly in the final RoX stages of tournaments) have more map awareness than you do. For example, perhaps 12 Nexus is the default strategy for a reason? Maybe Protoss can and should get an early lead on this map to prevent something worse from happening later? Mini probably won 70%+ of his practice games using this strategy, against other pro players who were also trying to figure out the map, maybe he knew more than a random poster on TL who doesn't play the game at a high level? Everyone makes mistakes. Appeals to authority are not proof. I know all of this, but somehow it seems more likely to me that he had a good idea of what he was going to do and why on this map, and that it was likely better than your understanding of the dynamics of the pro scene even if Mini ended up losing Game 7.
It has been years since we had an island map. Last was in 2023. This harkens back to when terran was king at the beginning of starcraft as an esports. We would have battlereports of wraith builds beating pure terran mech. All I'm saying is these are exciting times with dusty old retro gameplay back in the spotlight. Stuff that will prove unwieldy to a pro might be just what you need. Remember, we had lots and lots of zerg pros commentating queens need too much apm to be utilised during the kespa days, yet here we are.
You are saying two things at once: everyone makes mistakes, and they know better. I don't think they know better all the time... When we root for them, we know their strengths and pitfalls. I'm saying this is new territory. We haven't even witnessed any zergs play with guardians holding the bridge over the bay. The map is too fast paced for any serious deep dive.
|
On September 29 2025 07:56 TornadoSteve wrote:Show nested quote +On September 29 2025 07:24 TMNT wrote:On September 28 2025 22:24 RogueTheGOAT wrote:On September 28 2025 19:56 RJBTVYOUTUBE wrote:On September 28 2025 10:15 RogueTheGOAT wrote:On September 28 2025 10:01 Azhi_Dahaki wrote:
Mini is better than Barracks If he were, he wouldn't have taken such a huge risk in game 7. Going Nexus first in the final game of a series says he doesn't think he would win a straight up game. Nexus first is a very common Mini thing on 4 player maps. Barracks and Mini are about equally good. Just statistic variations alone means one of the two will win a best of set, and that winrates will fluctuate up and down. Most players are about equally good and only a few are real true outliers who consistently win. Even with 55%/45% win rates someone can win or lose 5-10 in a row against a worse or better player given the sample size is big enough. Everyone and their mother knew that Mini was going Nexus first. The better player does not employ a strategy that has a 33% of working and that 33% being spawn position luck. A player takes that gamble if and only if they don't think they can win without a massive advantage. If you talk about gamble then Barracks' BBS is way more of a gamble than Mini's Nexus first. Nexus first can survive against any Terran openings other than proxy BBS. The proxy BBS that Barracks did loses against any Protoss openings other than Nexus first, and even with Nexus first, it still has 33% chance to fail if Mini spawned top left. Come on, not everyone knows who you are on TL. Some people might just read your post and actually believe it, lol. Your serious tone when spitting those foolishs affirmations is off the chart. Calm down, bro
Have you ever made a post with actual content?
|
On September 29 2025 08:12 RogueTheGOAT wrote:Show nested quote +On September 29 2025 07:24 TMNT wrote:On September 28 2025 22:24 RogueTheGOAT wrote:On September 28 2025 19:56 RJBTVYOUTUBE wrote:On September 28 2025 10:15 RogueTheGOAT wrote:On September 28 2025 10:01 Azhi_Dahaki wrote:
Mini is better than Barracks If he were, he wouldn't have taken such a huge risk in game 7. Going Nexus first in the final game of a series says he doesn't think he would win a straight up game. Nexus first is a very common Mini thing on 4 player maps. Barracks and Mini are about equally good. Just statistic variations alone means one of the two will win a best of set, and that winrates will fluctuate up and down. Most players are about equally good and only a few are real true outliers who consistently win. Even with 55%/45% win rates someone can win or lose 5-10 in a row against a worse or better player given the sample size is big enough. Everyone and their mother knew that Mini was going Nexus first. The better player does not employ a strategy that has a 33% of working and that 33% being spawn position luck. A player takes that gamble if and only if they don't think they can win without a massive advantage. If you talk about gamble then Barracks' BBS is way more of a gamble than Mini's Nexus first. Nexus first can survive against any Terran openings other than proxy BBS. The proxy BBS that Barracks did loses against any Protoss openings other than Nexus first, and even with Nexus first, it still has 33% chance to fail if Mini spawned top left. Players can and should make choices that maximize their expected outcome. Since it was game 7, let's say that the baseline chance of winning is 50% (I'm assuming the map is not particularly favored either way since neither player picked it), and therefore, anything that results in a higher than 50% chance of winning is a smart play. If you say that there was a 75% of Mini doing a Nexus First, then .75 * .66 = 49.5%. Let's say that BBS against any build other than Nexus first has a 10% win rate if placed on the correct side of the map. That's .25 * .66 * .1 = 1.65% 49.5% + 1.65% = 51.15% If you say that there was a 90% of Mini doing a Nexus First, then .90 * .66 = 59.4%. .1 * .66 * .1 = 0.66% 59.4+0.66 = 60.1% Barracks's decision to go for a BBS was a gamble in the sense that it largely took the results out of his hands, but it was not a risky play as it maximized his chance of victory. If you could tell a player going into a game 7 that if they do X that they'll have a 60.1% of winning, the only reason to NOT make that choice is that the consequences of losing and being clowned online could outweigh the benefits of winning the series.
Your calculations are probably correct but doesn't it rely heavily on the chance of Mini going Nexus first more than 75%?
For the record I thought Mini would go Nexus first in that game too but you can't pin that chance down to a number like 75% to justify your choice of going BBS. A gamble is still a gamble.
If Mini built a Gateway in that game, the narrative would change totally and we'd be discussing how Barracks was not confident in his skills and had to resort to cheese. The correct read is what RJBTV said, it's just statistical variations. All of them gamble to different degrees in a series. You win some you lose some. And it just happens that Barracks won game 7 there.
|
I do like Mini a lot and tbh don't care much for Barracks but I have to say BBS in the deciding seventh game is both a giga brain and infinite size balls move
praise where praise is due
|
On September 29 2025 23:05 TMNT wrote:
you can't pin that chance down to a number like 75%
Yes, you can. That's exactly the definition of probability from the Bayesian perspective (subjective degree of belief), as opposed to the frequentist definition based on hypothetical long-run frequencies.
FWIW, you don't need to assume a single, exact probability of mini going nexus first, you can build a curve of probability of BBS resulting in victory given different probabilities of Mini going nexus first, etc, Which is what Rogue did (albeit just with two values).
|
On September 30 2025 00:11 laurasad wrote:Show nested quote +On September 29 2025 23:05 TMNT wrote:
you can't pin that chance down to a number like 75%
Yes, you can. That's exactly the definition of probability from the Bayesian perspective (subjective degree of belief), as opposed to the frequentist definition based on hypothetical long-run frequencies. FWIW, you don't need to assume a single, exact probability of mini going nexus first, you can build a curve of probability of BBS resulting in victory given different probabilities of Mini going nexus first, etc, Which is what Rogue did (albeit just with two values).
I know, but the win probability for BBS is only more than 50% when the probability of Mini going Nexus first is more than 75%. That's what I mean. He chose 75% as a number to demonstrate that but that default assumption means Mini has to go Nexus first 3 out of every 4 games, which probably isn't true.
You can do the same kind of calculation for Mini's Nexus first opening and compare the numbers with the BBS opening, and Mini's opening will be considered the "safer" one.
I dont know why it has to be turned into a complicated matter like this. It's very obvious from a practical point of view: the more risky, gamble-ish builds get played less often. BBS is played less than Nexus first for that exact reason.
|
On September 30 2025 00:59 TMNT wrote:Show nested quote +On September 30 2025 00:11 laurasad wrote:On September 29 2025 23:05 TMNT wrote:
you can't pin that chance down to a number like 75%
Yes, you can. That's exactly the definition of probability from the Bayesian perspective (subjective degree of belief), as opposed to the frequentist definition based on hypothetical long-run frequencies. FWIW, you don't need to assume a single, exact probability of mini going nexus first, you can build a curve of probability of BBS resulting in victory given different probabilities of Mini going nexus first, etc, Which is what Rogue did (albeit just with two values). I know, but the win probability for BBS is only more than 50% when the probability of Mini going Nexus first is more than 75%. That's what I mean. He chose 75% as a number to demonstrate that but that default assumption means Mini has to go Nexus first 3 out of every 4 games, which probably isn't true. You can do the same kind of calculation for Mini's Nexus first opening and compare the numbers with the BBS opening, and Mini's opening will be considered the "safer" one. I dont know why it has to be turned into a complicated matter like this. It's very obvious from a practical point of view: the more risky, gamble-ish builds get played less often. BBS is played less than Nexus first for that exact reason.
As far as I know, Mini had played 2 game 7s prior to his series against Barracks. Against Larva he did a proxy 2 gate. Against Rush he went Nexus first. He has very much decided that when the pressure is highest that he does NOT want to play a "normal" game. He could have come to that conclusion based on the idea that he would expect his opponents to play extremely standard in that situation because you look bad if you gamble and lose, so he's using that to get an advantage.
BBS is played less than Nexus first because a player typically plays BBS to counter a Nexus first. Unless the opponent is Mini and it is a 4-player map or one that does not encourage aggression, a Terran player does not maximize their chances of winning by going BBS because they can't expect their opponent to go Nexus first.
This discussion started with the statement that Mini is a better player than Barracks and me countering that a better player does not take the risk of going Nexus first in a win or go home situation. If Mini thought he was better than Barracks, he plays a more standard build and builds small advantages into a win. Barracks took what was on paper a risk, but was realistically his best play from an objective standpoint.
|
On September 30 2025 02:27 RogueTheGOAT wrote:Show nested quote +On September 30 2025 00:59 TMNT wrote:On September 30 2025 00:11 laurasad wrote:On September 29 2025 23:05 TMNT wrote:
you can't pin that chance down to a number like 75%
Yes, you can. That's exactly the definition of probability from the Bayesian perspective (subjective degree of belief), as opposed to the frequentist definition based on hypothetical long-run frequencies. FWIW, you don't need to assume a single, exact probability of mini going nexus first, you can build a curve of probability of BBS resulting in victory given different probabilities of Mini going nexus first, etc, Which is what Rogue did (albeit just with two values). I know, but the win probability for BBS is only more than 50% when the probability of Mini going Nexus first is more than 75%. That's what I mean. He chose 75% as a number to demonstrate that but that default assumption means Mini has to go Nexus first 3 out of every 4 games, which probably isn't true. You can do the same kind of calculation for Mini's Nexus first opening and compare the numbers with the BBS opening, and Mini's opening will be considered the "safer" one. I dont know why it has to be turned into a complicated matter like this. It's very obvious from a practical point of view: the more risky, gamble-ish builds get played less often. BBS is played less than Nexus first for that exact reason. As far as I know, Mini had played 2 game 7s prior to his series against Barracks. Against Larva he did a proxy 2 gate. Against Rush he went Nexus first. He has very much decided that when the pressure is highest that he does NOT want to play a "normal" game. He could have come to that conclusion based on the idea that he would expect his opponents to play extremely standard in that situation because you look bad if you gamble and lose, so he's using that to get an advantage. BBS is played less than Nexus first because a player typically plays BBS to counter a Nexus first. Unless the opponent is Mini and it is a 4-player map or one that does not encourage aggression, a Terran player does not maximize their chances of winning by going BBS because they can't expect their opponent to go Nexus first. This discussion started with the statement that Mini is a better player than Barracks and me countering that a better player does not take the risk of going Nexus first in a win or go home situation. If Mini thought he was better than Barracks, he plays a more standard build and builds small advantages into a win. Barracks took what was on paper a risk, but was realistically his best play from an objective standpoint.
Is it me, or are there two camps of pros and both Barracks and Mini are in the danger group. Soulkey is in the safe opener group, same with Best and Snow. We could deliberate on this, I truly wish it was more elaborate, but I see no way out of this. It just doesn't seem all that complicated to me.
|
On September 30 2025 02:27 RogueTheGOAT wrote:
This discussion started with the statement that Mini is a better player than Barracks and me countering that a better player does not take the risk of going Nexus first in a win or go home situation. If Mini thought he was better than Barracks, he plays a more standard build and builds small advantages into a win. Barracks took what was on paper a risk, but was realistically his best play from an objective standpoint.
The probability issue aside, you forgot to take into account players' style when they make those decisions. We are talking about Mini.
This is not the first time he did something like that. Case in point: ASL14 Ro24 - elimination match - Bo1 - 3 player map (Sylphid), but he went Nexus first against Sacsri - a Ro24 quality player that he could easily beat with any opening he wanted. Even this season in the Ro24 elimination match against sSak, he chose a DT build that could get him eliminated if sSak just held. He just likes to take risk for no reason.
|
Well, well, well. We'll get a fresh ASL champion!
|
All 4 round of 16 group winners advanced to the round of 4. That hasn't happened since ASL season 10 in 2020 which was Flash's random season.
|
On October 01 2025 23:10 RogueTheGOAT wrote:
All 4 round of 16 group winners advanced to the round of 4. That hasn't happened since ASL season 10 in 2020 which was Flash's random season.
Cool observation.
|
So in case that Bisu actually beat Soma and Snow beat barracks. How is that final looking like ? Has Bisu any chance to beat Snow at protoss vs protoss ? Since i almost never watch pvp i have no idea if Bisu can put a challenge vs Snow.
|
On October 02 2025 22:07 [sc1f]eonzerg wrote:
So in case that Bisu actually beat Soma and Snow beat barracks. How is that final looking like ? Has Bisu any chance to beat Snow at protoss vs protoss ? Since i almost never watch pvp i have no idea if Bisu can put a challenge vs Snow.
Snow is the better PvP player judging from the eye test, no question, but the margin in this match up is so thin (unless you're Best) and BO luck decides a lot of the games so he's only slightly favorite against Bisu.
In terms of stats, lifetime record sees Snow 35-29 Bisu (it's mirror, they don't play each other ever , unless they are forced to) and actually 3-4 in 2025, so not much to digest. Snow beat Bisu convincingly 3-0 in ASL17 though.
|
yeah and it's still the case. SnOw is very likely to sweep the series or win 4-1. From what i've seen, Bisu is trying to cheese SnOw in most of their encounters.
|
Is there a particular reason why there are 3 weeks between the first round of 8 match and the first round of 4 match this season compared to the standard 2?
|
On October 09 2025 00:03 RogueTheGOAT wrote:
Is there a particular reason why there are 3 weeks between the first round of 8 match and the first round of 4 match this season compared to the standard 2?
Korean holiday week.
|
On October 09 2025 00:23 RJBTVYOUTUBE wrote:Show nested quote +On October 09 2025 00:03 RogueTheGOAT wrote:
Is there a particular reason why there are 3 weeks between the first round of 8 match and the first round of 4 match this season compared to the standard 2? Korean holiday week.
Makes sense.
|
On October 09 2025 01:41 RogueTheGOAT wrote:Show nested quote +On October 09 2025 00:23 RJBTVYOUTUBE wrote:On October 09 2025 00:03 RogueTheGOAT wrote:
Is there a particular reason why there are 3 weeks between the first round of 8 match and the first round of 4 match this season compared to the standard 2? Korean holiday week. Makes sense.
Squirming with anticipation.
|
I would expect Snow vs Soma as the actual finals assuming Barracks and Bisu dont pull something out of the basket to take them out.
It's potentially the most interesting matchup too. Both players are basically hailed as the strongest of the race (with now soulkey out of the tourney and not like going full tryhard anymore) and both are uncrowned actually. Like so much expectation for both players to get a championship and them meeting in the finals would be really sick
|
I'll take Soma over Bisu, he looks unyielding at the moment, and we know he has the builds and mentality to carry Zerg on his own.
BarrackS over Snow as every Terran player and their vibe-coded AI agent is lining up to pump BarrackS, mechanical god, full of the best strats.
Protoss' weakness is in numbers. If it had been Best or Snow alone in the Ro4 from that race, I'd favor them for victory.
|
On October 10 2025 07:14 warandpeaches wrote:
BarrackS over Snow as every Terran player and their vibe-coded AI agent is lining up to pump BarrackS, mechanical god, full of the best strats.
I don't know if it works that way. Some of the players are friends with Snow. (e.g. Rush was on CJ Entus with him) Others are going to practice with Snow because they might need help practicing with a Protoss player in the future. Some might even decide to hide builds for daily proleagues because that's where they make a lot of their money.
|
Does the fact that soma has shown how he wants to play ZvP on the maps over the previous two series help SnOw or does the fact that he's been practicing that matchup so much overcome that?
|
how's snow's online matchups vs soma? whats his winrate
|
On October 15 2025 05:23 RogueTheGOAT wrote:
Does the fact that soma has shown how he wants to play ZvP on the maps over the previous two series help SnOw or does the fact that he's been practicing that matchup so much overcome that?
Neither. There are so many different stats + specific executions that can be tailored vs particular opponents that repeating a match up series means close to nothing imo. Regarding the practices, they play so much and have so much time that it evens out at the end
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/vwGBhsi.png)
![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/VtayJyL.png)
![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/U1K5XO2.png)
![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/pOSA8fr.png)
![[image loading]](https://i.giphy.com/6pJNYBYSMFod2.webp)
![[image loading]](https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/1407116689816158248/1412524274685837414/image.png?ex=68cb103e&is=68c9bebe&hm=7e09fea04fc6284ac1670629d3f5cd2bd40cc001b8cfa7b1afaf2a1f57272e99)
![[image loading]](https://stimg.sooplive.co.kr/NORMAL_BBS/7/15524207/877368c97bf868a4e.png)
