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Renamed To ASL20 General Discussion.
WARNING: Contains Spoilers |
With the Ro24 over, what did you think of it? Any groups caught your interest? A map you loved or hated? A player who surprised you or shocked you? What do you think the Ro16 groups will look like? anything about the Ro24 you thought was interesting, talk about it here!
some of my thoughts
+ Show Spoiler +
For me Bisu showed up a bit more well put together than in previous seasons. It might be too early to call but he seemed to deal with Speed quite well, albeit Speed put himself into a difficult situation with his choice of BO. Word is he increased the size of his BW client window, and that he might have switched to a wireless mouse on Flash's advice. Could this have been holding him back for all these past seasons? I am really curiois to find out in the Ro16 where he will be tested for real. High expectations from him which I usually don't have.
similarly SoMa looked in great shape. His multitasking, macro, and micro all looked superb in his two games. whichever group he goes into, probably as one of the last to be picked, i am confident he will get out and go to Ro8. possibly at the expense of a first seed in that group.
Jaedong likewise looked more solid. decisive and confident. Two things he seemed to be lacking in prior years when you could see self-doubt in his play. He even talked about his self-doubt on stream and in interviews. If regaining his confidence is what is required for him to ascend yet again, I hope this season is the one where he stays confident for long enough to get far into the tournament.
Calm and Hyun I expected to show up out of shape because their activity was very low going into the qualifiers, and remained low after. I was not wrong. Their play looked uninspired and sloppy. And if there is one thing you can't be in ZvZ it is being sloppy. ZvZ in particular exposes your discipline and physical preparedness. Once again feels like their spots in ASL were wasted on them. Would have much rather seen two players who put in more work to show up in peak condition. Harsh words but sadly it is true.
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One question first: do we need spoilers here ?
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On August 28 2025 21:41 prosatan wrote:
One question first: do we need spoilers here ?
Surely not. Who in their right mind would open this thread if they're trying to avoid spoilers?
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On August 28 2025 21:50 pseudosignal wrote:Show nested quote +On August 28 2025 21:41 prosatan wrote:
One question first: do we need spoilers here ? Surely not. Who in their right mind would open this thread if they're trying to avoid spoilers?
agree 100% pseudosignal!
ok then: i am sad for hero , happy for JD and Bisu.
I knew Royal won't make it and i wouldn't bet any money on BTS! But good for him
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And i also found out that RO24 groups are made and not random!
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On August 28 2025 21:52 prosatan wrote:
And i also found out that RO24 groups are made and not random!
how so? i thougt its tiered based but still random system - i.e anyone from t1 can match with anyone from other tiers?
as for the results - only real surprise for me was hero going out like he did, i mean he was in ro16 for like 10 season in a row and constantly also making ro8/ro4?
my fav player JD did well, and as Artosis mentioned - he is in very good shape recently, i feel he can win vs anyone but light right now(yes even vs SK), hope he keeps his form and increases the amount of practice, because ASL is a long tournament.
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Larva surprised me. He really didn't look to be in great condition and I was convinced it was Ample's year to advance - not because of the ladder rating but because of the clear work he's put into his play.
JYJ looked unwell. Expected Speed to beat Bisu tbh.
Mini is hilarious. An amazing player who makes CPL tier mistakes. I truly love his clown show games.
Rush kinda underperformed it feels like. But credit where it's due - Jaedong is in monster mode. I'd be more excited but we already have a bunch of god Zergs. Guess hero threw to balance the universe.
Dunno what to think of BarrackS. Could be a dark horse but capable of feats of transcendent retardation. He's a Terran Mini lol
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On August 28 2025 22:02 Zografa wrote:Show nested quote +On August 28 2025 21:52 prosatan wrote:
And i also found out that RO24 groups are made and not random! how so? i thougt its tiered based but still random system - i.e anyone from t1 can match with anyone from other tiers? as for the results - only real surprise for me was hero going out like he did, i mean he was in ro16 for like 10 season in a row and constantly also making ro8/ro4? my fav player JD did well, and as Artosis mentioned - he is in very good shape recently, i feel he can win vs anyone but light right now(yes even vs SK), hope he keeps his form and increases the amount of practice, because ASL is a long tournament.
i swear i read it here on TL ! and i wasn't surprised because how else you get a group full of zergs??
and yes , i know that every group must have tier 1 , 2 , and 4 players..
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On August 28 2025 22:26 prosatan wrote:Show nested quote +On August 28 2025 22:02 Zografa wrote:On August 28 2025 21:52 prosatan wrote:
And i also found out that RO24 groups are made and not random! how so? i thougt its tiered based but still random system - i.e anyone from t1 can match with anyone from other tiers? as for the results - only real surprise for me was hero going out like he did, i mean he was in ro16 for like 10 season in a row and constantly also making ro8/ro4? my fav player JD did well, and as Artosis mentioned - he is in very good shape recently, i feel he can win vs anyone but light right now(yes even vs SK), hope he keeps his form and increases the amount of practice, because ASL is a long tournament. i swear i read it here on TL ! and i wasn't surprised because how else you get a group full of zergs?? and yes , i know that every group must have tier 1 , 2 , and 4 players..
if anything group full of zergs is not confirming the argument of rigged groups, why would they do such a thing? its boring for viewers and u cant actually create meaningful advantage for someone with todays zvz(as seen even hero, tier 1 lost vs tier4 zerg.
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Netherlands5066 Posts
My thoughts about the rest of the tournament to come, which is not really answering OP.
+ Show Spoiler +
Soulkey has a lot of power in making last Ro16 changes, therefore we can expect him to advance Ro8.
Because of previous ASL results Soulkey is still the favourite to go to the finals (and win).
Who else do I expect to survive the Ro16?
Best, he's also a top seed with power and has made Ro8 often enough.
Who won't survive Ro16?
BTS, Sharp, Barracks, Speed
I'm still not convinced of Speed, I don't believe he's better than peak Sharp. nor are BTS and BarrackS.
This leaves 10 possible contenders to fill out the Ro8:
Soma, JD, Effort, Larva, Bisu, Light, Snow, Queen, Mini, Rush
Who do I not see winning ASL:
Queen, Snow, Light, Rush.
Queen in Ro24 looked so bad...
Snow & Light are supposedly slumping a bit as of late.
Rush just seems incapable, honestly. If it wasn't for last season, Best would be on this list as well.
Effort can win the whole thing as long as he dodges Bisu, Snow and Mini
JD can beat anyone in the Ro8 but Effort.
Soma seems strong, but his previous ASL results don't look convincing.
I don't see Larva surviving ZvZ in his current form, maybe vs Queen.
Now back to my first paragraph: If Soulkey will be a finalist again. Who can beat him?
My top picks would be, in order: Effort, Best, Bisu, Soma, JD, Mini.
Soulkey doesn't appear to be looking as hot if I check his MPL results.
Snow and Light would be my bias favourites to reach the Ro4, but TMNT convinced me they're too busy being dads, hence I also don't name them as contenders to beat Soulkey in a final, even though I can totally see either one beat Soulkey.
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On August 28 2025 23:20 Peeano wrote:My thoughts about the rest of the tournament to come, which is not really answering OP. + Show Spoiler +
Soulkey has a lot of power in making last Ro16 changes, therefore we can expect him to advance Ro8.
Because of previous ASL results Soulkey is still the favourite to go to the finals (and win).
Who else do I expect to survive the Ro16?
Best, he's also a top seed with power and has made Ro8 often enough.
Who won't survive Ro16?
BTS, Sharp, Barracks, Speed
I'm still not convinced of Speed, I don't believe he's better than peak Sharp. nor are BTS and BarrackS.
This leaves 10 possible contenders to fill out the Ro8:
Soma, JD, Effort, Larva, Bisu, Light, Snow, Queen, Mini, Rush
Who do I not see winning ASL:
Queen, Snow, Light, Rush.
Queen in Ro24 looked so bad...
Snow & Light are supposedly slumping a bit as of late.
Rush just seems incapable, honestly. If it wasn't for last season, Best would be on this list as well.
Effort can win the whole thing as long as he dodges Bisu, Snow and Mini
JD can beat anyone in the Ro8 but Effort.
Soma seems strong, but his previous ASL results don't look convincing.
I don't see Larva surviving ZvZ in his current form, maybe vs Queen.
Now back to my first paragraph: If Soulkey will be a finalist again. Who can beat him?
My top picks would be, in order: Effort, Best, Bisu, Soma, JD, Mini.
Soulkey doesn't appear to be looking as hot if I check his MPL results.
Snow and Light would be my bias favourites to reach the Ro4, but TMNT convinced me they're too busy being dads, hence I also don't name them as contenders to beat Soulkey in a final, even though I can totally see either one beat Soulkey.
The biggest threat to SK has always been ZvZ. In the other 2 matchups I don't really see anyone beating him in a bo series.
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Netherlands5066 Posts
On August 29 2025 00:32 bochs wrote:Show nested quote +On August 28 2025 23:20 Peeano wrote:My thoughts about the rest of the tournament to come, which is not really answering OP. + Show Spoiler +
Soulkey has a lot of power in making last Ro16 changes, therefore we can expect him to advance Ro8.
Because of previous ASL results Soulkey is still the favourite to go to the finals (and win).
Who else do I expect to survive the Ro16?
Best, he's also a top seed with power and has made Ro8 often enough.
Who won't survive Ro16?
BTS, Sharp, Barracks, Speed
I'm still not convinced of Speed, I don't believe he's better than peak Sharp. nor are BTS and BarrackS.
This leaves 10 possible contenders to fill out the Ro8:
Soma, JD, Effort, Larva, Bisu, Light, Snow, Queen, Mini, Rush
Who do I not see winning ASL:
Queen, Snow, Light, Rush.
Queen in Ro24 looked so bad...
Snow & Light are supposedly slumping a bit as of late.
Rush just seems incapable, honestly. If it wasn't for last season, Best would be on this list as well.
Effort can win the whole thing as long as he dodges Bisu, Snow and Mini
JD can beat anyone in the Ro8 but Effort.
Soma seems strong, but his previous ASL results don't look convincing.
I don't see Larva surviving ZvZ in his current form, maybe vs Queen.
Now back to my first paragraph: If Soulkey will be a finalist again. Who can beat him?
My top picks would be, in order: Effort, Best, Bisu, Soma, JD, Mini.
Soulkey doesn't appear to be looking as hot if I check his MPL results.
Snow and Light would be my bias favourites to reach the Ro4, but TMNT convinced me they're too busy being dads, hence I also don't name them as contenders to beat Soulkey in a final, even though I can totally see either one beat Soulkey.
The biggest threat to SK has always been ZvZ. In the other 2 matchups I don't really see anyone beating him in a bo series.
That's fair. I think Soulkey is a bit overrated, especially since Best almost took him out. If Best can reach match point so can Bisu and Mini, who are no strangers to PvZ and playing best ofs.
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For me, having so many of the old dogs showing such great form was the story of the RO24.
Larva, Bisu, Jaedong, EffOrt, and Soma all looked absolutely fantastic. Every single one of those players should scare the piss out of the seeds.
Then you have Queen, Mini, Rush, BarrackS, Sharp and Speed making it out. Queen and Mini obviously being the scariest of the 2nd placers. The tournament looks stacked. BTS (True) is the only guy who didn't look all too impressive to get out of the Ro24 but his risky all-inish mind-game style that gives me Shine-vibes still poses a threat to anyone.
I'm looking forward to the Ro16.
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Roaring Currents is an interesting map and whoever vetoes it is a coward. I don't think that there haven't been nearly enough games played on it for anyone to actually make any reasonable evaluations of it in terms of balance and from how I've seen it play out in its occasional game in the daily pro leagues there are good arguments in favor of every race in almost any match up.
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The guy that wrote that SK is overrated based on last finals vs Best. Are you serious???
Sk literally gifted games on weird all ins, and weird risky plays, but once he just played normally, no chance for best. A Best that supposedly was playing like the best version of himself, with mental strength like never before. We can say Sk is crumbling, but to say that SK is overrated is non sense.
Adding to that he isnt only a 4 Time ASL champion in a row, but also a KSL champion. Title wise he is literally the most successful player in the modern broodwar era… The only thing that diminishes his accomplishments are the fact, that players like Flash, Last, Larva, past peak Rain, Soma and Effort for some time, and there is some form of perception or like situation where people feel that the missing of these stars and the perceived fluctuation of some tops players somehow allowed SK to be this dominat or break through.
Though Flash was already declining, and all these other players maybe were not declining or just couldnt keep up with the increase of SK and his consistency.
I mean it is hard to say that the general level of players is decreasing, when there are docent of top new players under them conistently trying to break through.
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On August 28 2025 22:07 pseudosignal wrote:
Larva surprised me. He really didn't look to be in great condition and I was convinced it was Ample's year to advance - not because of the ladder rating but because of the clear work he's put into his play.
JYJ looked unwell. Expected Speed to beat Bisu tbh.
Mini is hilarious. An amazing player who makes CPL tier mistakes. I truly love his clown show games.
Rush kinda underperformed it feels like. But credit where it's due - Jaedong is in monster mode. I'd be more excited but we already have a bunch of god Zergs. Guess hero threw to balance the universe.
Dunno what to think of BarrackS. Could be a dark horse but capable of feats of transcendent retardation. He's a Terran Mini lol
larva is smart and practices a lot of hours unlike rain who is probably smarter but doesn’t practice nearly as much
barracks is the new forgg
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Netherlands5066 Posts
"The guy" and then asking if I'm serious with 3 questions marks. I'm not basing SK being a bit (you forgot this part) overrated on just the last finals vs Best. Also lol at using past peak Rain for your argument and doing Soulkey dirty like that.
Are you serious???
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I think Soulkey is not gonna win this season. No particular reason. Just feel like the odds of winning 5 in a row is too slim, especially when there are so many Zergs and he may not be the best motivated after 4 peat, plus he's not lookin amazing online recently (although he never did, online)
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I don't see the Soulkey dominance anymore; I'm not sure if he's getting a bit worse or if others are getting better. JD is on a tear, though. His play lately has been such a joy to watch. His aggressive style might not be as consistent a way to win as Soulkey's approach, but it is surely more fun to watch.
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On August 29 2025 08:45 TMNT wrote:
I think Soulkey is not gonna win this season. No particular reason. Just feel like the odds of winning 5 in a row is too slim, especially when there are so many Zergs and he may not be the best motivated after 4 peat, plus he's not lookin amazing online recently (although he never did, online)
Soulkey did have periods where he looked amazing online, but these periods were never right before an ASL. Soulkey always gets into peak form whenever it is his time to play. Last four seasons he got progressively better online the deeper he got into the tournament, allegedly because his motivation increases along with his activity. What is different however is that after the first three wins he had a more dominant 2 months after in his online play. This time around the two months after he was not as dominant, and he was less active. We could take this as a sign of losing his competitive drive. I'd say it is too early to say, but it is not impossible.
Also his two only competitors over these past two years, Light, and SnOw, and for the last season a peaking Best who doesnt count for this specific comparison, are at their lowest points of activity in years. Whether this decreased activity will hurt their performance or whether it was just enough to stay in form is something we will find out in the ro16.
on paper this season is due to above reasons the perfect season for someone else to take the throne. SoMa, Bisu, Jaedong, Queen specifically come to mind with how the maps are rather zerg favored. Even Larva has a chance because his activity level is insanely high.
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4 Zergs in semifinals it is.
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Those who made it
Mini , D+
Larva, TRUE C-
Speed, ZerO C
Sharp C+
n/a B-
Rush, effOrt B
Bisu B+
BarrackS A-
Jaedong A
soma A+
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I just noticed that every Terran who advanced out of the round of 24 did so by winning a TvT in the final match. That's not a great sign for their success going forward.
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The data I collected suggested that JyJ, hero, and Royal are not doing as well as we'd typically exoect, and the results bore that out. Not only did all of them get eliminated - none of them looked very good in their games.
The data also indicated that Jaedong and Mong were going to be a lot better than they'd been in previous seasons, and I think that was borne out as well. Jaedong looked excellent. Mong didn't advance, but he looked very respectable despite it being a tough group. If he had been the Tier 3 player in A,B, F, or maybe even C, I think he could've made it.
There were a couple surprises for me. Stork and sSak sucked. Stork statistically looked like a very solid TvT player over the last 9 months. He's about even with Rush, Barracks, and sSak and beating Royal handily. He did not look good at all against Ample. I didn't expect sSak to advance, but I didn't expect him to look as shaky as he did.
Looking forward to Ro16, my guess is that Soulkey and Best will split Barracks and Speed in some order, Snow will pick Rush like he did last time, and Light will get to feast on True or Larva (and, if he can get them to go along with it, both). I will be surprised if Light does not end up with an all Zerg group.
All of these Zergs advancing is obviously a huge problem for Soulkey. I do not think he will be able to avoid a ZvZ in Ro16 (he will probably to throw Mini, Bisu, or Rush at the Zerg in his group to snipe them). Queen and Soma are favored against him, and Effort and Jaedong are both serious threats. I still think he's the odds on favorite to win the tournament, but he hasn't looked this vulnerable since his first championship run.
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United States10182 Posts
On August 29 2025 23:04 zutt0 wrote:
The data I collected suggested that JyJ, hero, and Royal are not doing as well as we'd typically exoect, and the results bore that out. Not only did all of them get eliminated - none of them looked very good in their games.
The data also indicated that Jaedong and Mong were going to be a lot better than they'd been in previous seasons, and I think that was borne out as well. Jaedong looked excellent. Mong didn't advance, but he looked very respectable despite it being a tough group. If he had been the Tier 3 player in A,B, F, or maybe even C, I think he could've made it.
There were a couple surprises for me. Stork and sSak sucked. Stork statistically looked like a very solid TvT player over the last 9 months. He's about even with Rush, Barracks, and sSak and beating Royal handily. He did not look good at all against Ample. I didn't expect sSak to advance, but I didn't expect him to look as shaky as he did.
Looking forward to Ro16, my guess is that Soulkey and Best will split Barracks and Speed in some order, Snow will pick Rush like he did last time, and Light will get to feast on True or Larva (and, if he can get them to go along with it, both). I will be surprised if Light does not end up with an all Zerg group.
All of these Zergs advancing is obviously a huge problem for Soulkey. I do not think he will be able to avoid a ZvZ in Ro16 (he will probably to throw Mini, Bisu, or Rush at the Zerg in his group to snipe them). Queen and Soma are favored against him, and Effort and Jaedong are both serious threats. I still think he's the odds on favorite to win the tournament, but he hasn't looked this vulnerable since his first championship run.
When did Stork start race picking TvT?
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Pretty sure even sSak himself was happy with his own performance
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On August 29 2025 04:38 Peeano wrote:
"The guy" and then asking if I'm serious with 3 questions marks. I'm not basing SK being a bit (you forgot this part) overrated on just the last finals vs Best. Also lol at using past peak Rain for your argument and doing Soulkey dirty like that.
Are you serious???
Sorry, i got triggered for no actual reason.
I was rambling around like i do see many people do here. And wanted to do the same, i will try to be more polite and send reasonable post on this website.
Have a nice day.
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TBH i wanted to see TY make the next round.... i'm expecting spicy things from him, such as TvP 4 or 5 rax similar to how scan used to do sometimes, using his sc2 championship level baneling split micro to spread m&m vs reaver scarabs
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On August 29 2025 21:19 TornadoSteve wrote:
Those who made it
Mini , D+
Larva, TRUE C-
Speed, ZerO C
Sharp C+
n/a B-
Rush, effOrt B
Bisu B+
BarrackS A-
Jaedong A
soma A+
Hard disagree on Jaedong. I didn't watch all of the ro24 games but I watched the first 4 groups and imo Jaedong's wins were extremely suspect. He could easily have lost all of his games, he was throwing so hard mid-late game and not playing up to quality. His early/early-mid game was great but he started to fall apart after and only his early advantage let him win. Very suspect multitasking was the big issue. He couldn't even put mutas into standby and then do something else then go back to mutas effectively. I think it's extremely plausible that he doesn't make ro8.
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On August 30 2025 07:45 Kaal wrote:Show nested quote +On August 29 2025 21:19 TornadoSteve wrote:
Those who made it
Mini , D+
Larva, TRUE C-
Speed, ZerO C
Sharp C+
n/a B-
Rush, effOrt B
Bisu B+
BarrackS A-
Jaedong A
soma A+ Hard disagree on Jaedong. I didn't watch all of the ro24 games but I watched the first 4 groups and imo Jaedong's wins were extremely suspect. He could easily have lost all of his games, he was throwing so hard mid-late game and not playing up to quality. His early/early-mid game was great but he started to fall apart after and only his early advantage let him win. Very suspect multitasking was the big issue. He couldn't even put mutas into standby and then do something else then go back to mutas effectively. I think it's extremely plausible that he doesn't make ro8.
I find you a bit hard on Jaedong since he could have ended the game vs Rush much earlier if he wanted to. Remember, this was a bo1, pretty sure in a bo5 he would have not hesitated in going all in on 2 bases, Rush had no eco at all. As I see it, he obviously decided to play it safe securing the win with the advantage he got with his early harass. At some point the timing was tight, especially with that nydus on third but in the end, everything went according to plan. JD always was in ctrl of the game. And I think it is reassuring to see him opting for this kind of strat because it shows that he is confident in his skill even vs an opponent which is supposed to be better than him.
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great ro24, but a bit afraid the ro8 and forwaard is going to be a zerg fiesta
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Larva proved me wrong. Glad he made it.
As for the Ro16 onwards, I won't be surprised if it ends up as a Zerg fiesta. a lot of the zergs are looking good now. Hope soulkey is ready since from what I understand, the mirror matchup is also his weakest.
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With 8 zergs in the Ro16 , a ZvZ final is looking inevitable. Not sure who has the best vZ right now for T/P. Snow? Light?
As far as I can tell ZvZ is basically a coin toss between all pros right now, everyone is pretty much on equal footing.
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On August 31 2025 00:07 Ideas wrote:
With 8 zergs in the Ro16 , a ZvZ final is looking inevitable. Not sure who has the best vZ right now for T/P. Snow? Light?
As far as I can tell ZvZ is basically a coin toss between all pros right now, everyone is pretty much on equal footing.
Statistically, over the last 9 months, it's Light then Rush then Snow/Sharp.
Light is 59.2% across top Zergs (Soulkey, Hero, Action, Queen, Jaedong, Soma, Effort). Rush is 56.7%, Snow is 53.6%, Sharp is 53.5%.
If you dig deeper into the records, Light looks even more impressive because a relatively large chunk of his games are against Soulkey and a relatively small chunk of his games are against Jaedong and Action. Rush looks a little less impressive because he's basically farming Hero and Jaedong.
The interesting thing is that the best vZ winrates are the Zergs themselves. Soma is 63.6%, Queen is 62.9%, and Jaedong is 61.1%. For reference, Soulkey is at 48%, Effort is at 50%, True is at 31.8%, and Larva is at 30%. The sample sizes for ZvZ are small (~20 games for most of these guys), so we can't read too much into this, but it supports the notion that we're in for a very Zerg-heavy Ro8.
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I would only look at stats for games played on the current map pool because that's what's going to be played and it represents more recent form.
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On August 31 2025 01:39 RogueTheGOAT wrote:
I would only look at stats for games played on the current map pool because that's what's going to be played and it represents more recent form.
That would work well for players who play a ton, like Rush and Mini, but it would leave you with too little data for most players. You could say that that just goes to show that a data-based approach doesn't make any sense and we're better off with the eyeball test, and maybe we are (I'm not a good enough player to apply the eyeball test). But if you want a data-based approach, you need some way of filling in those gaps. You can either bring in ladder games or extend the window backward a little, and I think extending the window back makes more sense.
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On August 31 2025 01:39 RogueTheGOAT wrote:
I would only look at stats for games played on the current map pool because that's what's going to be played and it represents more recent form.
With all due respect, I think pros play the game outside of the convention mapmakers intend the games to go.
We both saw SK vs Best finals last game. The new KnockOut is aimed to balance that. However, pros can easily play outside the convention.
Group C winners match between Soma and Bisu demonstrated this perfectly. You can hear the narrative change live as Tastosis says @1 hour 4 minutes, "This map is a solution to that" to @1hour 17 minutes, "here's the problem: it is very hard for Dragoons to break the contain here".
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On August 29 2025 08:45 TMNT wrote:
I think Soulkey is not gonna win this season. No particular reason. Just feel like the odds of winning 5 in a row is too slim
How many times someone won in a row doesn't change the chances of winning, other than psychologically (so if anything, it improves them since everyone is a bit more scared)
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Stork looks washed. The new maps are producing pretty exciting games.
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On August 31 2025 16:10 prototype. wrote:
Stork looks washed. The new maps are producing pretty exciting games.
Stork has been there for so long, there are ups and downs. Right now he looks kind of weak, but he still qualified for an ASL, which is a dream for a lot of extremely strong players, and he might just need to reset to perform very well again.
I don’t think we will see him in a Ro4 or something, but there is no reason why he couldn’t be a force to be reckoned with if he decides to put on the hours.
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The maps have been bringing interesting games. And upsets. Good for the tourney and the scene
On August 31 2025 01:01 zutt0 wrote:Show nested quote +On August 31 2025 00:07 Ideas wrote:
With 8 zergs in the Ro16 , a ZvZ final is looking inevitable. Not sure who has the best vZ right now for T/P. Snow? Light?
As far as I can tell ZvZ is basically a coin toss between all pros right now, everyone is pretty much on equal footing. Statistically, over the last 9 months, it's Light then Rush then Snow/Sharp. Light is 59.2% across top Zergs (Soulkey, Hero, Action, Queen, Jaedong, Soma, Effort). Rush is 56.7%, Snow is 53.6%, Sharp is 53.5%. If you dig deeper into the records, Light looks even more impressive because a relatively large chunk of his games are against Soulkey and a relatively small chunk of his games are against Jaedong and Action. Rush looks a little less impressive because he's basically farming Hero and Jaedong. The interesting thing is that the best vZ winrates are the Zergs themselves. Soma is 63.6%, Queen is 62.9%, and Jaedong is 61.1%. For reference, Soulkey is at 48%, Effort is at 50%, True is at 31.8%, and Larva is at 30%. The sample sizes for ZvZ are small (~20 games for most of these guys), so we can't read too much into this, but it supports the notion that we're in for a very Zerg-heavy Ro8.
That's interesting. Light being the best tvz'r is no surprise but even against SK ? They need to run over alot of zergs in the groups lol
On August 31 2025 16:10 prototype. wrote:
Stork looks washed. The new maps are producing pretty exciting games.
On August 30 2025 06:11 Crimson)S(hadow wrote:
TBH i wanted to see TY make the next round.... i'm expecting spicy things from him, such as TvP 4 or 5 rax similar to how scan used to do sometimes, using his sc2 championship level baneling split micro to spread m&m vs reaver scarabs
I really wanted TY to make it too but lets be real here. Aint no way you are replicating the sc2 splitting in bw so easily considering how lack of responsiveness bw units are lol
TY isnt gonna change bw micro considering he isnt the only sc2 to bw player around who had decent success
Also bio is so bad vs reaver lol
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On August 31 2025 21:22 goody153 wrote:The maps have been bringing interesting games. And upsets. Good for the tourney and the scene Show nested quote +On August 31 2025 01:01 zutt0 wrote:On August 31 2025 00:07 Ideas wrote:
With 8 zergs in the Ro16 , a ZvZ final is looking inevitable. Not sure who has the best vZ right now for T/P. Snow? Light?
As far as I can tell ZvZ is basically a coin toss between all pros right now, everyone is pretty much on equal footing. Statistically, over the last 9 months, it's Light then Rush then Snow/Sharp. Light is 59.2% across top Zergs (Soulkey, Hero, Action, Queen, Jaedong, Soma, Effort). Rush is 56.7%, Snow is 53.6%, Sharp is 53.5%. If you dig deeper into the records, Light looks even more impressive because a relatively large chunk of his games are against Soulkey and a relatively small chunk of his games are against Jaedong and Action. Rush looks a little less impressive because he's basically farming Hero and Jaedong. The interesting thing is that the best vZ winrates are the Zergs themselves. Soma is 63.6%, Queen is 62.9%, and Jaedong is 61.1%. For reference, Soulkey is at 48%, Effort is at 50%, True is at 31.8%, and Larva is at 30%. The sample sizes for ZvZ are small (~20 games for most of these guys), so we can't read too much into this, but it supports the notion that we're in for a very Zerg-heavy Ro8. That's interesting. Light being the best tvz'r is no surprise but even against SK ? They need to run over alot of zergs in the groups lol Show nested quote +On August 31 2025 16:10 prototype. wrote:
Stork looks washed. The new maps are producing pretty exciting games. Show nested quote +On August 30 2025 06:11 Crimson)S(hadow wrote:
TBH i wanted to see TY make the next round.... i'm expecting spicy things from him, such as TvP 4 or 5 rax similar to how scan used to do sometimes, using his sc2 championship level baneling split micro to spread m&m vs reaver scarabs I really wanted TY to make it too but lets be real here. Aint no way you are replicating the sc2 splitting in bw so easily considering how lack of responsiveness bw units are lol TY isnt gonna change bw micro considering he isnt the only sc2 to bw player around who had decent success Also bio is so bad vs reaver lol
speaking of bio vs reaver: does anyone have a working VOD of that awesome game between kal and forgg in the arena MSL? https://tl.net/tlpd/korean/games/9269_ForGG_vs_Jila/main
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On August 29 2025 00:46 Peeano wrote:
That's fair. I think Soulkey is a bit overrated, especially since Best almost took him out. If Best can reach match point so can Bisu and Mini, who are no strangers to PvZ and playing best ofs.
7 games is a small sample size
a player who has 40% win rate vs. another player in any given game will win a bo7 around 29% of the time
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So many people talking about Soulkey not appearing strong online lol. I think after winning 4 ASL's in a row, Soulkey knows what hes doing as far as his practice regiment and approach goes... maybe someday everyone will learn that the pros know better than casuals on a forum.
Jaedong looks better than he has in years, but I won't get my hopes up until he delivers.
Light and Snow doing Light and Snow things, being better than everyone except one person as it's been for a while now.
Jaedong and Soma are potentially the only really new surprises that could throw a wrench into things for me.
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On September 01 2025 04:35 bw2ku wrote:
So many people talking about Soulkey not appearing strong online lol. I think after winning 4 ASL's in a row, Soulkey knows what hes doing as far as his practice regiment and approach goes... maybe someday everyone will learn that the pros know better than casuals on a forum.
Jaedong looks better than he has in years, but I won't get my hopes up until he delivers.
Light and Snow doing Light and Snow things, being better than everyone except one person as it's been for a while now.
Jaedong and Soma are potentially the only really new surprises that could throw a wrench into things for me.
What about Effort? You know what, Effort and Jaedong never competed at peak form. They only have 7 games in total with 3-4 split.
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Netherlands5066 Posts
On September 01 2025 04:35 bw2ku wrote:
So many people talking about Soulkey not appearing strong online lol. I think after winning 4 ASL's in a row, Soulkey knows what hes doing as far as his practice regiment and approach goes... maybe someday everyone will learn that the pros know better than casuals on a forum.
Jaedong looks better than he has in years, but I won't get my hopes up until he delivers.
Light and Snow doing Light and Snow things, being better than everyone except one person as it's been for a while now.
Jaedong and Soma are potentially the only really new surprises that could throw a wrench into things for me.
You're a casual on a forum. We're all speculating, because no one can predict the future or look into the minds of pros. Anyway, if Soulkey knew what he was doing, I wouldn't expect Best to make it to match point before SK did. Yet that happened.
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On September 01 2025 06:22 Peeano wrote:Show nested quote +On September 01 2025 04:35 bw2ku wrote:
So many people talking about Soulkey not appearing strong online lol. I think after winning 4 ASL's in a row, Soulkey knows what hes doing as far as his practice regiment and approach goes... maybe someday everyone will learn that the pros know better than casuals on a forum.
Jaedong looks better than he has in years, but I won't get my hopes up until he delivers.
Light and Snow doing Light and Snow things, being better than everyone except one person as it's been for a while now.
Jaedong and Soma are potentially the only really new surprises that could throw a wrench into things for me. You're a casual on a forum. We're all speculating, because no one can predict the future or look into the minds of pros. Anyway, if Soulkey knew what he was doing, I wouldn't expect Best to make it to match point before SK did. Yet that happened.
I'm aware I'm a casual, while you all seem to not be aware of that fact, that's the thing. SK has won 4 ASL's in a row... in a row. Nobody has ever done that, even with all the diminishing of this accomplishment saying "oh but this era isn't as competitive/no teamhouses" blah blah blah....
"The best player in the world doesn't know what he was doing because he didn't clean sweep the runner-up" is just foolish talk. Lord, listen to yourself lol.
Of course people are allowed to/will speculate, its just completely asinine to talk like the 4peat ASL champion doesn't know what they need to do to be in champion shape...
As far as Effort goes, Effort is very, very capable of being a complete monster. He's just highly inconsistent, and that's why I'm not onboard the Effort train nowadays.
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Overall, an exciting, high-quality round of 24.
A. I thought Larva was going to win, but not in that fashion. It looked like he had never been away from ASL.
B. Bisu getting slack for his PvT doesn't make sense to me, it was always great. His PvZ/PvP were just godlike.
C. Really expected Mini to win his group, but I guess soma trained very hard in the military.
D. Happy for Effort, he always had this agressive and clean gameplay which still translates well to modern ZvZ. Disappointed in Calm, he can play better than this, especially ZvZ.
E. I feel like Jadeong is improving each time I see him, clearly putting in a lot of work, but his late-game was not convincing at all, being unable to keep up mechanically. I hope he can get himself a ro4 spot though.
F. Uhhhh... yeah. This group sadly put a black cloud above the ro24 with a ton of suspect turn of events. Whatever caused hero to play the way he did... I'm waiting for an explanation.
G. The new maps are great! More Roaring Currents, please 
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Netherlands5066 Posts
On September 01 2025 07:36 bw2ku wrote:Show nested quote +On September 01 2025 06:22 Peeano wrote:On September 01 2025 04:35 bw2ku wrote:
So many people talking about Soulkey not appearing strong online lol. I think after winning 4 ASL's in a row, Soulkey knows what hes doing as far as his practice regiment and approach goes... maybe someday everyone will learn that the pros know better than casuals on a forum.
Jaedong looks better than he has in years, but I won't get my hopes up until he delivers.
Light and Snow doing Light and Snow things, being better than everyone except one person as it's been for a while now.
Jaedong and Soma are potentially the only really new surprises that could throw a wrench into things for me. You're a casual on a forum. We're all speculating, because no one can predict the future or look into the minds of pros. Anyway, if Soulkey knew what he was doing, I wouldn't expect Best to make it to match point before SK did. Yet that happened. I'm aware I'm a casual, while you all seem to not be aware of that fact, that's the thing. SK has won 4 ASL's in a row... in a row. Nobody has ever done that, even with all the diminishing of this accomplishment saying "oh but this era isn't as competitive/no teamhouses" blah blah blah.... "The best player in the world doesn't know what he was doing because he didn't clean sweep the runner-up" is just foolish talk. Lord, listen to yourself lol. Of course people are allowed to/will speculate, its just completely asinine to talk like the 4peat ASL champion doesn't know what they need to do to be in champion shape... As far as Effort goes, Effort is very, very capable of being a complete monster. He's just highly inconsistent, and that's why I'm not onboard the Effort train nowadays.
"i'm gonna "quote" this guy as if he said clean sweep. Everyone will surely point and laugh at him."
Lord, listen to yourself lol
No one here is saying Soulkey is not the facourite. Some people are just saying he's not as hot as some casual on a forum claims he is.
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On September 01 2025 13:39 Peeano wrote:Show nested quote +On September 01 2025 07:36 bw2ku wrote:On September 01 2025 06:22 Peeano wrote:On September 01 2025 04:35 bw2ku wrote:
So many people talking about Soulkey not appearing strong online lol. I think after winning 4 ASL's in a row, Soulkey knows what hes doing as far as his practice regiment and approach goes... maybe someday everyone will learn that the pros know better than casuals on a forum.
Jaedong looks better than he has in years, but I won't get my hopes up until he delivers.
Light and Snow doing Light and Snow things, being better than everyone except one person as it's been for a while now.
Jaedong and Soma are potentially the only really new surprises that could throw a wrench into things for me. You're a casual on a forum. We're all speculating, because no one can predict the future or look into the minds of pros. Anyway, if Soulkey knew what he was doing, I wouldn't expect Best to make it to match point before SK did. Yet that happened. I'm aware I'm a casual, while you all seem to not be aware of that fact, that's the thing. SK has won 4 ASL's in a row... in a row. Nobody has ever done that, even with all the diminishing of this accomplishment saying "oh but this era isn't as competitive/no teamhouses" blah blah blah.... "The best player in the world doesn't know what he was doing because he didn't clean sweep the runner-up" is just foolish talk. Lord, listen to yourself lol. Of course people are allowed to/will speculate, its just completely asinine to talk like the 4peat ASL champion doesn't know what they need to do to be in champion shape... As far as Effort goes, Effort is very, very capable of being a complete monster. He's just highly inconsistent, and that's why I'm not onboard the Effort train nowadays. "i'm gonna "quote" this guy as if he said clean sweep. Everyone will surely point and laugh at him." Lord, listen to yourself lol No one here is saying Soulkey is not the facourite. Some people are just saying he's not as hot as some casual on a forum claims he is.
Albeit Soulkey always gave terrific series. The one with Royal, then JyJ, then Snow, then Sharp, Rain, Best. There is a pattern here. He always macros first. Clean sweep is not his style. You might call him playing slower than a regular zerg.
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I had a dream where this season also concluded with a BeSt vs SK final and it ended up exactly with the same outcome as the previous one.
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i srsly need to touch some grass lOLRFL but this is what i think happens today.
A
Soulkey
Barracks
soma → Sharp
Mini
B
Best
BTS
effOrt
Bisu
C
SnOw
Sharp → soma
Rush
Jaedong
D
Light
Larva
Speed
Queen
 
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I was hyped for the matchups listed in the calendar until I realised it was just group selection, oops
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On September 01 2025 06:22 Peeano wrote:Anyway, if Soulkey knew what he was doing, I wouldn't expect Best to make it to match point before SK did. Yet that happened.
again, winning 3 games against SK can happen even if you're not favored against him
if BeSt has a 40% win rate against SK, he's expected to win three games out of seven 58% of the time
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On September 01 2025 15:04 gravity wrote:
I was hyped for the matchups listed in the calendar until I realised it was just group selection, oops
lol banned
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On September 01 2025 15:09 iopq wrote:Show nested quote +On September 01 2025 06:22 Peeano wrote:Anyway, if Soulkey knew what he was doing, I wouldn't expect Best to make it to match point before SK did. Yet that happened. again, winning 3 games against SK can happen even if you're not favored against him if BeSt has a 40% win rate against SK, he's expected to win three games out of seven 58% of the time
if best has 40% wr vs SK, his chances of winning bo7 are less than 1 in 3, winning 3 games and losing 4-3 gives another ~15% to that, so best winning 3+ games in a bo7 vs SK is around 45%
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On September 01 2025 14:40 RogerChillingworth wrote:i srsly need to touch some grass lOLRFL but this is what i think happens today. ASoulkey Barracks soma → Sharp Mini BBest BTS effOrt Bisu CSnOw Sharp → soma Rush Jaedong DLight Larva Speed Queen
First pick of the group leader can't be switched, so in this case Soulkey can't swap Soma with Sharp but can swap Rush with soma (unless SnOw do pick Rush first like previous season)
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On September 01 2025 18:19 BoesFX wrote:Show nested quote +On September 01 2025 14:40 RogerChillingworth wrote:i srsly need to touch some grass lOLRFL but this is what i think happens today. ASoulkey Barracks soma → Sharp Mini BBest BTS effOrt Bisu CSnOw Sharp → soma Rush Jaedong DLight Larva Speed Queen First pick of the group leader can't be switched, so in this case Soulkey can't swap Soma with Sharp but can swap Rush with soma (unless SnOw do pick Rush first like previous season)
BUTTER MY BISCUIT
ok he swaps for Speed then
God are they just gonna speak Korean the whole time? ? ?
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konadora
Singapore66201 Posts
lol BTS is quite funny
he tried to get SK to pick him but SK didn't want to risk losing in a ZvZ, so he appealed to BeSt, and BeSt said they're somewhat of a rival, and BTS said if BeSt chooses him, he will be BeSt's dog for the day
then Best was asked if he's decided, and he said "yes, Taesu (BTS), go put your name there" and BTS immediately ran over to put his name into group B lmao
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konadora
Singapore66201 Posts
Snow: "I saw how close Group B were, so I want to pick someone I can be close with and have some great chit-chats."
Q: "What about Sharp?"
Sharp: "Lately your results have been... yeah... so do you want to practice a bit with me?"
Snow shakes his head
Sharp: "Oh, not me? Ah okay..." 
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konadora
Singapore66201 Posts
Snow saying he wants to pick a Terran because there arent many Ts left, and he wants Zergs to be left behind so they'll all fight each other
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konadora
Singapore66201 Posts
Snow saying he wanted to pick Barracks but since he was taken, he decided to pick someone easy so he picked Sharp
Sharp was pissed (jokingly) and said he'll pick players he doesnt want to face lol
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konadora
Singapore66201 Posts
Effort: "pick me if you're looking to get eliminated' LOL
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Thanks for translating konadora 
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konadora
Singapore66201 Posts
Bisu: "It's okay if Light picks me. After all, as of late, I'm ahead in our head-to-head. 1 to 0."
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konadora
Singapore66201 Posts
Light: "I haven't played seriously in the last 3 months, but looks like these players have gotten very cocky. I'll punish them all"
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konadora
Singapore66201 Posts
Light: "I was planning on picking a T so I can guarantee myself into Ro16, but Speed was appealing himself very strongly today"
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konadora
Singapore66201 Posts
Larva: "I wanted to get into a group with a couple of big names, but looks like I got into a group with a bunch of no-names... (dissing on Light being a forgotten ASL winner LOL) guess I'll just do my best"
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snow picks sharp and sharp picks jd, lol this one already interesting :D
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konadora
Singapore66201 Posts
Sharp picked JD over Effort because he says Effort is annoyingly strong against him, whereas JD is still more manageable
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konadora
Singapore66201 Posts
Rush: "Can I also be Best's dog? Pick me please?"
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little detail i noticed - the ASL champs have stars on their tracksuits symbolizing the number of wins they have
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Soulkey can't dodge ZvZ anymore.
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+ Show Spoiler +Poor Soulkey he has to contend with 2 really strong zergs and barracks lmao
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konadora
Singapore66201 Posts
SK said that he felt betrayed by everyone lmao
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Tough group for the champ. Can't believe I'm saying this but I don't think he's making it out.
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I'm rooting for soma and effort now
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konadora
Singapore66201 Posts
Mini: "I practiced with Larva for Ro24 and honestly he was kinda bad? Yet he talks so much here"
Larva: "Is he forgetting about our past? I think practice results don't mean anything. Man, now I wanna face him instead"
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konadora
Singapore66201 Posts
Effort: "I know how to win Soma anyway, so send me anywhere and pair me with anyone, I don't care"
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konadora
Singapore66201 Posts
Effort: "I rarely lose ZvZ in ASL. Leave me here in this group with you (SK) and you'll be in trouble"
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konadora
Singapore66201 Posts
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konadora
Singapore66201 Posts
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might as well put razer in the sponsors category too, asl
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That's kind of the only switch that can benefit Soulkey, so now he can still dodge ZvZ. Just beat Barracks, and Rush is more than expected to beat Effort, then you can play ZvT again.
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Soulkey dodged a bullet lol.
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konadora
Singapore66201 Posts
all the players there win the entire razer bundle wtf lol
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Mini so mentally blocked against SnOw, but favored against JD and Sharp I think. Other groups are a bit meh. Honestly pretty balanced. I'd be surprised if there were many upsets.
Getting to swap a player out of your group as the former champion is pretty busted.
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ALLEYCAT BLUES50245 Posts
these are some tough groups wow
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Many thanks Kona !!!! 
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Group C is the strongest ? maybe...
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Thanks for the translation kona. Also effort talked about a promise he made to someone maybe Soma? I did not get it. What was it about?
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Jd got it rough but hope he pulls it off
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What exactly was the SK swap?
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ALLEYCAT BLUES50245 Posts
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I don't know if there are any groups where I would feel confident about the chances of Terran players in the round of 16 considering I was not particularly impressed with their round of 24 performances, but I'd project 1.5 Terran to make the round of 8 with a decent chance of that rounding down.
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Not quite enough Zerg for a full Ro8...
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Interesting effort didn’t go til round three. SK once again manufactured a pretty soft group for himself. Group C is by far the toughest. Group B should be killer too. Light and Soma seem a class above in Group D.
A: SK and Rush
B: Best and Queen
C: snow and JD
D: Light and Soma
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On September 01 2025 23:05 Simplistik wrote:
Not quite enough Zerg for a full Ro8...
If they get 7, then ASL 21 needs to be full island maps with none of the bullshit they add to make them "balanced" which typically swings them hard in Zerg's favor.
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Netherlands5066 Posts
Thanks Kona! It's nice to read a good summary of what was said like this!
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Effort:"Pick me if you want to lose" Why can't more players have that confidence
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So.. who's playing who in the first bo1's?
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These are really sick looking groups, especially group C. Phew..
Hope for some awesome games!
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On September 02 2025 06:02 M3t4PhYzX wrote:
So.. who's playing who in the first bo1's?
Top seed against first pick would be my guess. So SK vs Barracks etc
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On August 29 2025 17:40 RJBTVYOUTUBE wrote:Show nested quote +On August 29 2025 08:45 TMNT wrote:
I think Soulkey is not gonna win this season. No particular reason. Just feel like the odds of winning 5 in a row is too slim, especially when there are so many Zergs and he may not be the best motivated after 4 peat, plus he's not lookin amazing online recently (although he never did, online) Soulkey did have periods where he looked amazing online, but these periods were never right before an ASL. Soulkey always gets into peak form whenever it is his time to play. Last four seasons he got progressively better online the deeper he got into the tournament, allegedly because his motivation increases along with his activity. What is different however is that after the first three wins he had a more dominant 2 months after in his online play. This time around the two months after he was not as dominant, and he was less active. We could take this as a sign of losing his competitive drive. I'd say it is too early to say, but it is not impossible. Also his two only competitors over these past two years, Light, and SnOw, and for the last season a peaking Best who doesnt count for this specific comparison, are at their lowest points of activity in years. Whether this decreased activity will hurt their performance or whether it was just enough to stay in form is something we will find out in the ro16. on paper this season is due to above reasons the perfect season for someone else to take the throne. SoMa, Bisu, Jaedong, Queen specifically come to mind with how the maps are rather zerg favored. Even Larva has a chance because his activity level is insanely high.
How are the maps zerg favored?? lmao
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On September 02 2025 14:22 Shinokuki wrote:Show nested quote +On August 29 2025 17:40 RJBTVYOUTUBE wrote:On August 29 2025 08:45 TMNT wrote:
I think Soulkey is not gonna win this season. No particular reason. Just feel like the odds of winning 5 in a row is too slim, especially when there are so many Zergs and he may not be the best motivated after 4 peat, plus he's not lookin amazing online recently (although he never did, online) Soulkey did have periods where he looked amazing online, but these periods were never right before an ASL. Soulkey always gets into peak form whenever it is his time to play. Last four seasons he got progressively better online the deeper he got into the tournament, allegedly because his motivation increases along with his activity. What is different however is that after the first three wins he had a more dominant 2 months after in his online play. This time around the two months after he was not as dominant, and he was less active. We could take this as a sign of losing his competitive drive. I'd say it is too early to say, but it is not impossible. Also his two only competitors over these past two years, Light, and SnOw, and for the last season a peaking Best who doesnt count for this specific comparison, are at their lowest points of activity in years. Whether this decreased activity will hurt their performance or whether it was just enough to stay in form is something we will find out in the ro16. on paper this season is due to above reasons the perfect season for someone else to take the throne. SoMa, Bisu, Jaedong, Queen specifically come to mind with how the maps are rather zerg favored. Even Larva has a chance because his activity level is insanely high. How are the maps zerg favored?? lmao
Bridged expansions are z>>p,t. For PvT it helps if expansion is small; for terran, large expansions.
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Gah. Why is mini always in stupid groups with Snow. I have 2 Protoss hopes and they’re always threatening each other. This is a Zerg heavy asl. Give me mini PvZ gah. So annoyed. Mini in group B is perfect. Don’t waste the Ro8 on best.
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On September 01 2025 20:29 konadora wrote:Ro16 final group
A: Soulkey and Rush
B: Queen and Bisu
C: SnOw and Jaedong
D: SoMa and Light.
I will be wrong about these predictiona as usual.
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Mini recently played 9 games against Jaedong and only lost to some dumb all-ins. Personal bias aside, Mini looks stronger. JD even skipping spire and full sending it, so Mini rocked sair/reaver and made like it was a 90s Arnold movie and 360-snapped jd's neck so hard it unscrewed off and like bounced out of the dude's house like a basketball. And then Mini shot it from his window with a fucking crossbow and it exploded. It was unbelievable.
I'm hoping people actually cook some shit up and don't just walk in expecting their morning coffee to work against former champions. SnOw, Light, Bisu, Rush, etc. tend to play a normal game and eventually get sat on. Maybe SnOw's the exception.
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On September 02 2025 18:24 RogerChillingworth wrote:
Mini recently played 9 games against Jaedong and only lost to some dumb all-ins. Personal bias aside, Mini looks stronger. JD even skipping spire and full sending it, so Mini rocked sair/reaver and made like it was a 90s Arnold movie and 360-snapped jd's neck so hard it unscrewed off and like bounced out of the dude's house like a basketball. And then Mini shot it from his window with a fucking crossbow and it exploded. It was unbelievable.
I'm hoping people actually cook some shit up and don't just walk in expecting their morning coffee to work against former champions. SnOw, Light, Bisu, Rush, etc. tend to play a normal game and eventually get sat on. Maybe SnOw's the exception.
He often does plenty of all ins and/or timing push during these bo7 matches which are inconsequent and a good playground to try out stuff. He opened hatch 12 so many times. It is highly unlikely that he will play this way for ASL imo.
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Mini is one of those players that almost always does something crazy in his ASL matches. Even if he's not the best P, he's so fun to watch.
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On September 02 2025 23:57 Ideas wrote:
Mini is one of those players that almost always does something crazy in his ASL matches. Even if he's not the best P, he's so fun to watch.
Is it me, or is he going to get streamrolled by Snow?
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On September 03 2025 00:18 mtcn77 wrote:Show nested quote +On September 02 2025 23:57 Ideas wrote:
Mini is one of those players that almost always does something crazy in his ASL matches. Even if he's not the best P, he's so fun to watch. Is it me, or is he going to get streamrolled by Snow?
SnOw usually wins PvP iirc. He uses to be weaker than Mini at it, but he has evolved.
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What surprises me is there is equal chance of True progressing into the round of 8 versus all the prime suspects in Group C not making it out. It is just an unprecedented group selection, in my opinion.
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How are the maps zerg favored?? lmao
thats how the games are currently playing out in KCM, DPL & ASL
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On September 03 2025 01:42 mtcn77 wrote:
What surprises me is there is equal chance of True progressing into the round of 8 versus all the prime suspects in Group C not making it out. It is just an unprecedented group selection, in my opinion.
I feel like since Ro16 has Bo3s there's a far lower chance for true to succeed than in Ro24. But who knows.
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I think these are all well-balanced groups with lots of ASL winners and finalists (11/16). Nothing like last season's stacked group of Snow, Rush, Mini and hero.
Jaedong has a good chance to get through to Ro8. He can out-micro Snow and Mini and should be ok with Sharp.
Speed can probably upset someone in his group.
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On September 03 2025 02:23 Ideas wrote:Show nested quote +On September 03 2025 01:42 mtcn77 wrote:
What surprises me is there is equal chance of True progressing into the round of 8 versus all the prime suspects in Group C not making it out. It is just an unprecedented group selection, in my opinion. I feel like since Ro16 has Bo3s there's a far lower chance for true to succeed than in Ro24. But who knows.
Oh, you are right. One wrong step and he is back in the preliminaries. What ever, I hope he isn't short on build orders.
I seriously cannot see him lasting more than 5 minutes with Best. Best plays like prime Stork these days.
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That's a phenomenal group for Bisu. hsi PvP is actually the only matchup where he's not lost an extra step and is secretly Best's worst matchup by a mile these days. The maps are ok against Z's for P this season. I have Queen and Bisu coming through in that group.
Absolute shame Mini and Snow have to fight it out in that group. I think these maps are really good for them and they are the strongest P's in this tournament due to the distribution of the Top16(a lot of Z, then T, then very few P).
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On September 03 2025 02:41 polgas wrote:
I think these are all well-balanced groups with lots of ASL winners and finalists (11/16). Nothing like last season's stacked group of Snow, Rush, Mini and hero.
Jaedong has a good chance to get through to Ro8. He can out-micro Snow and Mini and should be ok with Sharp.
Speed can probably upset someone in his group.
SnOw's Micro is better than Jaedong's. Jaedong's going to have to rely on map advantages and decisiveness.
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I saw his games lately and it ain't so bad. His muta control is quite good against Rush. He can snipe those templars easy.
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ALLEYCAT BLUES50245 Posts
Jaedong's biggest advantage is that he's in a group where he has the mental edge, everyone else has choked mega hard over the years.
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On September 03 2025 12:10 BLinD-RawR wrote:
Jaedong's biggest advantage is that he's in a group where he has the mental edge, everyone else has choked mega hard over the years.
idk if calling SnOw losing ONLY to Soulkey for the past 3 seasons, in quarter or Semi, counts as choking mega hard. Specifically considering the mental aspect was exactly Jaedong's weakness in the past ten seasons. If anything Jaedong might not have the mental edge. It is too early to call.
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On September 03 2025 06:03 oxKnu wrote:
That's a phenomenal group for Bisu. hsi PvP is actually the only matchup where he's not lost an extra step and is secretly Best's worst matchup by a mile these days. The maps are ok against Z's for P this season. I have Queen and Bisu coming through in that group.
Absolute shame Mini and Snow have to fight it out in that group. I think these maps are really good for them and they are the strongest P's in this tournament due to the distribution of the Top16(a lot of Z, then T, then very few P).
I am wondering why you think this map pool is good for pvz? I hear artosis say this but not why. When I look at the numbers for high level matches ( asl pl KCM) p has no winning maps atm.
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Terran and Protoss are both getting absolutely destroyed by Zerg in KCM race wars right now.
Wouldn't be surprised to see Top 4 all Zergs.
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On September 03 2025 22:03 Postaljester_ wrote:Show nested quote +On September 03 2025 06:03 oxKnu wrote:
That's a phenomenal group for Bisu. hsi PvP is actually the only matchup where he's not lost an extra step and is secretly Best's worst matchup by a mile these days. The maps are ok against Z's for P this season. I have Queen and Bisu coming through in that group.
Absolute shame Mini and Snow have to fight it out in that group. I think these maps are really good for them and they are the strongest P's in this tournament due to the distribution of the Top16(a lot of Z, then T, then very few P). I am wondering why you think this map pool is good for pvz? I hear artosis say this but not why. When I look at the numbers for high level matches ( asl pl KCM) p has no winning maps atm.
It only takes 15 minutes from gamestart for him to backtrack on his words.
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On September 03 2025 22:03 Postaljester_ wrote:Show nested quote +On September 03 2025 06:03 oxKnu wrote:
That's a phenomenal group for Bisu. hsi PvP is actually the only matchup where he's not lost an extra step and is secretly Best's worst matchup by a mile these days. The maps are ok against Z's for P this season. I have Queen and Bisu coming through in that group.
Absolute shame Mini and Snow have to fight it out in that group. I think these maps are really good for them and they are the strongest P's in this tournament due to the distribution of the Top16(a lot of Z, then T, then very few P). I am wondering why you think this map pool is good for pvz? I hear artosis say this but not why. When I look at the numbers for high level matches ( asl pl KCM) p has no winning maps atm.
The maps aint that good for zergs.. espeially knockout and the island map. Nowadays zergs usually win via hydra bust or ling runbys. If they can't pull that out well they have to go standard and P usually wins if it goes standard. Zerg always "has" to do something to pull ahead or beat with all semi all-in strats. This is what soma has been complaining years. Y'll just don't see it. Now compare it to non-pro zvps where doing these semi all in strats are extremely hard to pull in maps that basically guarantee perfect simcity for Ps and they give you 1v1 spots for zlot vs lings.
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On September 04 2025 05:19 Shinokuki wrote:Show nested quote +On September 03 2025 22:03 Postaljester_ wrote:On September 03 2025 06:03 oxKnu wrote:
That's a phenomenal group for Bisu. hsi PvP is actually the only matchup where he's not lost an extra step and is secretly Best's worst matchup by a mile these days. The maps are ok against Z's for P this season. I have Queen and Bisu coming through in that group.
Absolute shame Mini and Snow have to fight it out in that group. I think these maps are really good for them and they are the strongest P's in this tournament due to the distribution of the Top16(a lot of Z, then T, then very few P). I am wondering why you think this map pool is good for pvz? I hear artosis say this but not why. When I look at the numbers for high level matches ( asl pl KCM) p has no winning maps atm. The maps aint that good for zergs.. espeially knockout and the island map. Nowadays zergs usually win via hydra bust or ling runbys. If they can't pull that out well they have to go standard and P usually wins if it goes standard. Zerg always "has" to do something to pull ahead or beat with all semi all-in strats. This is what soma has been complaining years. Y'll just don't see it. Now compare it to non-pro zvps where doing these semi all in strats are extremely hard to pull in maps that basically guarantee perfect simcity for Ps and they give you 1v1 spots for zlot vs lings.
Knockout is good for zerg though. Very good terrain for lurkers and chokepointing.
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On September 03 2025 23:22 ScoutWBF wrote:
Terran and Protoss are both getting absolutely destroyed by Zerg in KCM race wars right now.
Wouldn't be surprised to see Top 4 all Zergs.
Oh yeah but i'm still hoping we get a more balanced final 8 and final 4 with consideration of tournament form. Sometimes players can get smashed in online matches and ladder but show up in the tournament proper and vice versa
Not only for this broodwar but even other esports too it is not an uncommon occurance
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