The Round of 16 pretty much was a brilliant and the group of death absolutely delivered in terms of games as highlighted by Simplistik. Meanwhile BisuDagger and BLinD-RawR look ahead into the the first two games in the Ro8 featuring a return to form from Queen who has been missing the Ro8 for 4 seasons now going up against the hardest working protoss player in the scene BeSt and A rejuvinated Jaedong facing off against Zerg's worst nightmare in Light.

GLHF!

Liquipedia

7 Surprise Stalemate
Group D Losers Set 3, herO vs Rush, on Eclipse
Rush pulls out a damaging hidden barracks opening. Marines kill a few drones and zerglings and a bunker goes up. hero scrambles to morph two sunken colonies. And then...



The sunkens can't reach the bunker, and the bunker is out of range of the hatchery. So everyone just stares at each other. Before the next sunken finishes, Rush makes a move and we actually get to see two SCV's finish off the injured sunken.



Even though herO holds, Rush gets a decent advantage, and he rides it all the way to victory. A somewhat disappointing showing for herO, but Rush's late surge means we get a balanced Ro8. Although I don't imagine many people fancy him to take down Soulkey...


6 Group C's PvZ Bonanza
What are the odds of getting a group with two Zerg and two Protoss players and getting exactly zero mirror matches? Who cares! We got three solid hours of back and forth PvZ, with a little something for everyone. Ling busts, hydra pressure, corsair fleets, muta harass, long games, short games, huge armies, storms, defilers. And, of course, DT's.



The quality of the games varied somewhat, but every player brought something to the table. Sure, Bisu didn't win any game, but I don't think he played as badly as the TL reaction suggested. The group could've fizzled out, but instead we were treated to the game of the week right at the end (see below).

And if Group C wasn't enough PvZ for you, there was another high quality game in Group D as well. And we have Best vs Queen to look forward to, with a plausible Soulkey vs Rain/Snow semi to follow. Looks like the Holy Wars are back on!


5 Queen's Hold Lurkers
Group C, Match 2, Bisu vs Queen on Metropolis

In his opening match, Bisu gets out on the map with a strong zealot-templar army. Protoss has the upgrade advantage. Since Bisu opened gate first and has not thrown away any zealots in the early game, they push back Queen's hydras decisively. And, even though two templars get sniped early, there are still five storms left, enough for a crippling blow against the Zerg third or natural. But a clutch of Lurkers burrows seconds before the Protoss force arrives...



With this sneaky templar swipe, Queen seizes back the momentum, and ultimately the victory. The result of this match foreshadows the rest of the players' games. Queen carries on winning and returns to the bracket stage for the first time in some time. While Bisu's prolonged absence from the game catches up with him as he goes out on three straight losses.


4 Snow's reaver does too much.
Group D Match 1, Snow vs Rush, on Metropolis
We all know that Snow is good God with reavers. But it can be a bit predictable, and Terrans have been getting better at dealing with it. In this game, Rush was in a great position. He gets a quicker expansion. Vultures find the proxy robotics facility at 9 o'clock and soften up the zealots a little. Although Snow does manage to trap the vultures with a surprising zealot hold on the ramp.



By the time the shuttle arrives Rush has three well-positioned turrets, a bunker with three marines and two tanks, with one more in production. He even buys some time with his vultures causing trouble in the Protoss natural, diverting attention by destroying probes. This allows the third tank to roll off the assembly line.

But it doesn't matter. Snow has elevatored in two dragoons. The reaver blows up the forward turret. Then the marines. Then the next turret. Meanwhile the dragoon and zealots have killed one tank and start on the next. Scarabs start blowing up SCV's.



Two goliaths finish eventually and push the shuttle out. But, when all is said and done, that reaver collected 14 kills and put Snow in a great position for the mid-game.

Rush tries a tank push to get back into the game, but of course it gets cleared up by reavers. And after that, the result is never really in doubt.




3 Mini causes chaos.
Group D Winners Set 2, Snow vs Mini, on Deja Vu SE
This game hangs in the balance for a fairly long time. Both players have reavers. Mini tries to put on pressure, but it's hard to break through against Snow's micro. Eventually Mini missteps and Snow gets a slightly better engagement.



On the way out of that position, Mini loses his reaver-shuttle and most of those dragoons. This allows Snow to set up a contain and take a third base to build his lead. Mini responds by doing what he does best in situations like this: cause as much chaos as possible. He starts with a successful drop into Snow's natural, which evens up the supplies. Another drop seconds later does a lot of damage.



And immediately after that two more shuttles hit Snow's third base and almost take down the nexus. A crazy sequence of reaver-hit-n-runs follows and somehow Mini comes out narrowly ahead. The disruption is the opportunity he needs. And with many goons banked up at home Mini breaks out of the contain. Snow hangs in there with a nice flanking move, but his dragoons are being driven back.

Mini's force pushes into Snow's third. But in a small moment of mis-micro, Mini loses his shuttle and both reavers. His remaining dragoons get sandwiched and ground down. Classic Mini.



Snow moves on to the bracket stage in first place. And Mini ends up falling apart in the Losers Match against Rush. He ad libs a failed two-shield-battery rush and things go downhill from there.



A somewhat sad end, but not entirely unexpected for the Janus-toss. Better luck next time.


2 Mini's Sair-Reaver Masterclass
Group D Match 2, herO vs Mini, on Metropolis
But before Mini collapses, he brought us an incredible game. This match is between the Protoss with the highest PvZ winrate, and the Zerg with the second highest ZvP winrate in ASL. Mini is the last Protoss that has managed to get Soulkey to match point. (Before imploding, as he will here once things start going wrong against Snow.) Ever since herO beat Bisu in the SSL11 final, he has lost only a single offline series against Protoss, namely against Best, all the way back in ASL2. In 2017.

But best of 1's are different. And Mini came prepared. I'm not sure I've ever seen a build like this. Protoss opens gateway first, builds one zealot and then starts warping in a nexus on 20. Without ever sending out a probe scout.



Is it the minerals narrowing the ramp that make this work? Four zerglings arrive, but they get literally nothing done. At 3:30, Mini still has not left the quadrant he spawned in. One of the zealot was a little forward, so maybe he has an idea where the lings came from. To the untrained eye it looks like Mini must surely be map-hacking. His first two zealots walk in a straight line to herO's third, based on only the tiniest sliver of scouting information.



Like any self-respecting Zerg, herO goes for a 3-hatch hydra play. But unbeknownst to him, he's up against reavers. Cannons are ready to meet the hydras and the first reaver starts floating across the map. Throughout all this several zealot sorties have seriously slowed down the Zerg economy.

The first reaver attack fails fairly badly, but the hydras can't be everywhere, so several overlords fall to the increasing corsair numbers. As a result Protoss is pulling ahead economically. Now with shuttle speed done, the second reaver does a lot more damage, blowing up at least seven hydras, some larvae and an egg, while the corsairs again cause trouble at the natural.

And then we see the full beauty of the plan unfold. This map is almost custom made for reaver-ing.



herO is off balance and stumbling around while Mini lands punch after punch. A band of zealots hit the third, with two reavers as backup, just when most of the Zerg army is across the map. The result is a complete bloodbath. And herO never recovers.



GG!

Man, I really love Mini. He doesn't play the cleanest, and he does fall apart with alarming frequency, but for sheer entertainment value, nobody does it better.




1 Game of the Week
Group C, Final Set 3, Rain vs Action, on Pole Star.
The outcome of Group C comes down to the final game on Pole Star. Both players have already played five games. Momentum is probably with Action, after winning the previous game and beating Bisu convincingly.

Nothing too crazy happens in the opening. Zerg goes for over-pool into 3-hatch hydra, but Rain has a decent read. The first three hydralisks are greeted by four cannons.



Action transitions into the midgame after hydras pick off the forge. One corsair keeps tabs on what the Zerg is up to. Rain's preparation is showing through some subtle build-order variation. His robo is much quicker than we have seen, and for the first time during the entire group, a dark archon is summoned.



As expected, Rain builds up a goon-heavy mid-game force, while Action goes into a 4-base battle Zerg style. When the Protoss army arrives near the Zerg expansions, the mutalisks dive in, looking for some juicy templars.



But they end up getting juiced by maelstrom instead. Templars land some incredibly damaging storms, but the Protoss army gets trapped, surrounded and wiped out. Now Zerg is a base up with slightly more supply. How often have we seen this be the end for Protoss?

Of course, Action has won many ZvP's like this, so he wills the swarm forward. If he can deny his opponent a fourth base, or get a good contain, the game is as good as over. But, somehow, the Protoss force manages an orderly retreat behind storm cover.



The swarm tries to overwhelm the Protoss bases, but Rain splits his army expertly. Cannons and dragoons hold the fourth, while templars protect the natural.



This costly failed attack evens the odds. Action responds by starting to take the bottom left corner, but a big enough Protoss contingent gets in to deny the base.



Meanwhile, probes have efficiently finished off the minerals at the main and third. Surprisingly, the Protoss units in the bottom right manage to get out and join up with the main force.

To make up for lost time, Action takes a base towards the Protoss corner. He also has access to dark swarm and plague now. We are 20 min into the game and neither player has skimped on upgrades. Protoss is on 3-0-3 while Zerg ground has just hit 3-2. Rain keeps up the pressure on the Zerg economy by stomping the new base at 8 o'clock.



The Protoss army doesn't manage to get out quickly, due to some lurkers cutting off the retreat. And the swarm can leverage this opportunity to spill across the map with hydras and cracklings to tear down the Protoss fourth, while at the same time denying the top right.

To make matters worse for Rain, Action also manages to secure 4 o'clock, which will ultimately put him two bases up. Protoss can be very efficient (there is a 29 kill archon), but that's probably too much.



Things are looking more and more grim for Protoss. The third base is mining out. The army is quite small. Some damaging plagues land. Lings pick off templars.

But Rain isn't done yet with this season. At 26 min, he assembles his first shuttle and warps in one dark templar. Behind this he starts a nexus at 1 o'clock. The first storm drop is decent, but the shuttle gets shot down. Zerglings run around the Protoss army and deny the warping nexus.



And then the magic happens. The DT slips across the entire map undetected and chops up all 13 drones at 5 o'clock. And in true Zeratul-style, that same dark templar then wanders through the 4 o'clock base and takes up a position behind the minerals in the bottom right, just outside of overlord vision. And then a fresh clutch of drones arrives...



We know how this ends. Poor drones. Zeratul gets another few drones at the next base before moving on to Protoss Valhalla. This is it for Action. He needs to cripple the Protoss economy now, or Rain will get an overwhelming advantage. And so all remaining Zerg units converge towards 1 o'clock.

And once again Rain slowly stalls the advance while retreating behind storms. But he starts running out of units. One defiler makes it to to the base and two dark swarms go up over the cannons. Some lurkers manage to get under. But the last remaining storms and zealots clear up.

This will be Queen’s first Ro8 since ASL15, a shocking 2 years of under performing including dropping out from seeded spot into losing in the Ro24 into failing to qualify for one season.

Had he beat Mind in the Ro8 of ASL15 then he would have ended up facing BeSt and probably made it to the finals(would have most likely won too, by beating JyJ).

For BeSt this will be the absolute test of his historically weak PvZ, while we are a long way from the good ol’ days of Dohsairs and BeSt vs Zerg = autolose we are still firmly within the confines of shaky showings offline, having lost to Jaedong just in the Ro16 and BTS in the opener of their Ro24 match even though did get him back on the final game.

Online BeSt’s ZvP win rate is about as expected with a 44.4%(44-55 since February)

Queen on the other hand has made it this far on the back of his ZvP. Aside from his opening match in the Ro24 against Skey, he has beaten Stork in the winner’s game of the Ro24 and then went on to absolutely clear his Ro16 group matches against Rain and Bisu, completely outclassing both of them.

Much like his offline performance, his online results also show himself to be doing pretty well in ZvP with a 60.5%(92-60 since February).

Although it should also be noted that of these protoss players BeSt is easily the most active at the highest level opponent that Queen has faced this season and at least the last few times they played online, BeSt has won more than he lost.

Looking at the maps gives us a good picture of their confidence levels as well.

Queen picked Metropolis(Set 1), Dominator SE(Set 3) and Radeon(Set 5)

Honestly Queen could have picked any 3 maps and felt like he had the advantage because the entire map pool favors Zerg in varying degrees. It would be up to BeSt to come up with the more carefully crafted strategies, Queen just needs to play his normal game.

BeSt picked Eclipse(Set 2), Death Valley(Set 4) and Deja Vu SE(Set 6)

No surprises that BeSt picked Eclipse as fast as he could, its the most played map and one that he’s extremely confident of beating Queen on despite its recent stats. Death Valley is a shocking pick, the map has only been played 8 times in the matchup online since it was introduced and only one TvZ so far in the actual ASL, I have no idea what BeSt has cooked up for it but it better be worth it especially if he ends up being down 0-3 at this point. Deja Vu SE had all its changes affecting terran matchups and nothing really done to affect PvZ where it remains more zerg favored.

Pole Star(set 7)
This map once again favors zerg but slightly less than most other maps, but it is unlikely we’ll ever reach this point.

By all accounts Queen should win, Maps favor him, experience favors him, the matchup itself favors him. But there is always going to be a chance that he chokes when the chips are down, he lost to Shuttle in a very important Proleague Super Ace match recently. Then again he is facing BeSt who is a biggest choke artist than everyone else left in the ASL(Snow included).

Queen to Advance to the Ro4!

In December, 2012, the stage was set for an epic proleague series. MBCGame HERO would be sending out players against Hwaseung OZ. The map, Acradia, was to be next and MBC already had a 3 to 1 lead.

It was time for MBC to send out their newly minted best Terran player. This Terran, during SKY2006 Proleague R2, was becoming the strongest player on the entire team. He qualified for the Shinhan Bank OSL, GOMTV MSL S1, and would eventually qualify for OSL season3 too. 2006 marked one this Terran’s best years ever and this player was named, Light.

Meanwhile, Hwaseung OZ needed to get a grip on this series. Looking to the bench there was just one option. Sitting on the sidelines was a young 16 year old who had only won his first proleague game April 30th of this very same year. Between April and this moment, the young Zerg player had defeated NaDa, GoRush, July, and iloveoov. This player was about to win rookie of the year, but to do so he would have to show his nettle against the up-coming Terran, Light. The Zerg player of course, was Jaedong.

The game itself played out wonderfully. Light would show early bio pressure, forcing Jaedong to build 3 sunkens and a third base before even getting spire tech. Light’s pressure between marines and firebats forced Jaedong to skip over making mutas entirely and invest in lurker play instead. Taking advantage of Light’s poor detection tech, Jaedong quickly applies a frontal assault on Light’s base. In response, Light simultaneously backdoors with a dropship. Light’s drop success pushes Jaedong back and the middle of the map is open for the taking. With the use of Lings, Lurkers, and scourge, Jaedong hangs on until dark swarm tech comes to his aid. Light applies pressure again at 3 locations using dropships while trying to hold his tank position in the middle. Jaedong is just too relentless in the middle. Both players are trying to not let the other one breath. In the end Light’s SK Terran wasn’t strong enough for Jaedong’s gripping ultra-play and Jaedong would win.

To stress just how good these players are, Jaedong went 10-1 in that season of ProLeague and Light would have a perfect record as ace. During the Kespa era, these players would end with an 11- 12 head to head record just barely favoring Jaedong.

There’s a reason why this bit of history is so important. We are nearly 20 years from the point at which these two players faced off. Yet here they are, in the 19th Season of ASL, competing for a coveted spot in the final four of one of the most stacked ASL tournaments ever. It’s just awing how much adversity these two players have overcome to be able to face each other today and we all need to appreciate that as much as possible when they play each other April 29th. We are witnessing two great legends, who have brought us two decades of great games duke it out in what will be a long and hard fought series.

This is a best of 7, so let’s take a quick look at the maps and try to predict who will advance.

Game 1: Dominator SE
This map has a high success rate for Zergs in the ZvT matchup. It offers a good advantage for muta play and Jaedong’s micro is looking strong. Expect him to jump out the gate looking for a muta play victory with the hope of avoiding mid to late game play.

Jaedong takes game 1

Game 2: Deja Vu SE
Depending on scouting, Light should really look to do aggressive bunker play at Jaedong’s natural. Light should be preparing builds that prevent the Zerg macro engine from reving up.

Light takes game 2.

Game 3: Radeon
This is another map that feels designed for Jaedong’s style of Zerg. The variety of attacks on the natural can range from Mutas, Lurkers, or even guardian play. Light will have to play great defense to escape here.

Jaedong takes game 3.

Game 4: Pole Star
This feels like yet another map in which Jaedong should have the upper hand. Given that Light hasn’t had the same level of TvZ he had 15 years ago, Jaedong’s top form should lead him through this

Jaedong takes game 4.

Game 5: Metropolis
This map play much more into Light’s style of play. With shorter distances between spawn and Light’s marine control, he should be able to take this one.

Light takes game 5.

Game 6: Death Valley
Six games is a lot for Jaedong, who has lacked stamina in recent times. His best chance is to aim for a short fast game. Jaedong probably has a build picked out based on his health at this point. Expect a short gritty battle the puts Jaedong into the final 4.

Jaedong takes game 6.

Jaedong Advances To The Ro4!

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Writers: BLinD-RawR, Simplistik, BisuDagger
Graphics: v1
Editors: BLinD-RawR