• Log InLog In
  • Register
Liquid`
Team Liquid Liquipedia
EDT 16:21
CEST 22:21
KST 05:21
  • Home
  • Forum
  • Calendar
  • Streams
  • Liquipedia
  • Features
  • Store
  • EPT
  • TL+
  • StarCraft 2
  • Brood War
  • Smash
  • Heroes
  • Counter-Strike
  • Overwatch
  • Liquibet
  • Fantasy StarCraft
  • TLPD
  • StarCraft 2
  • Brood War
  • Blogs
Forum Sidebar
Events/Features
News
Featured News
Maestros of the Game: Week 1/Play-in Preview12[ASL20] Ro24 Preview Pt2: Take-Off7[ASL20] Ro24 Preview Pt1: Runway132v2 & SC: Evo Complete: Weekend Double Feature4Team Liquid Map Contest #21 - Presented by Monster Energy13
Community News
LiuLi Cup - September 2025 Tournaments2Weekly Cups (August 25-31): Clem's Last Straw?39Weekly Cups (Aug 18-24): herO dethrones MaxPax6Maestros of The Game—$20k event w/ live finals in Paris53Weekly Cups (Aug 11-17): MaxPax triples again!15
StarCraft 2
General
Production Quality - Maestros of the Game Vs RSL 2 Geoff 'iNcontroL' Robinson has passed away #1: Maru - Greatest Players of All Time Heaven's Balance Suggestions (roast me) Maestros of the Game: Week 1/Play-in Preview
Tourneys
RSL: Revival, a new crowdfunded tournament series Chzzk MurlocKing SC1 vs SC2 Cup Sea Duckling Open (Global, Bronze-Diamond) Maestros of The Game—$20k event w/ live finals in Paris LiuLi Cup - September 2025 Tournaments
Strategy
Custom Maps
External Content
Mutation # 489 Bannable Offense Mutation # 488 What Goes Around Mutation # 487 Think Fast Mutation # 486 Watch the Skies
Brood War
General
ASL20 General Discussion BGH Auto Balance -> http://bghmmr.eu/ BW General Discussion Victoria gamers Pros React To: herO's Baffling Game
Tourneys
[IPSL] ISPL Season 1 Winter Qualis and Info! [Megathread] Daily Proleagues Is there English video for group selection for ASL Small VOD Thread 2.0
Strategy
Simple Questions, Simple Answers Muta micro map competition Fighting Spirit mining rates [G] Mineral Boosting
Other Games
General Games
Stormgate/Frost Giant Megathread General RTS Discussion Thread Nintendo Switch Thread Path of Exile Warcraft III: The Frozen Throne
Dota 2
Official 'what is Dota anymore' discussion
League of Legends
Heroes of the Storm
Simple Questions, Simple Answers Heroes of the Storm 2.0
Hearthstone
Heroes of StarCraft mini-set
TL Mafia
TL Mafia Community Thread Vanilla Mini Mafia
Community
General
US Politics Mega-thread Russo-Ukrainian War Thread The Games Industry And ATVI Canadian Politics Mega-thread European Politico-economics QA Mega-thread
Fan Clubs
The Happy Fan Club!
Media & Entertainment
[Manga] One Piece Anime Discussion Thread Movie Discussion! [\m/] Heavy Metal Thread
Sports
MLB/Baseball 2023 2024 - 2026 Football Thread Formula 1 Discussion TeamLiquid Health and Fitness Initiative For 2023
World Cup 2022
Tech Support
Computer Build, Upgrade & Buying Resource Thread High temperatures on bridge(s)
TL Community
The Automated Ban List TeamLiquid Team Shirt On Sale
Blogs
Collective Intelligence: Tea…
TrAiDoS
A very expensive lesson on ma…
Garnet
hello world
radishsoup
Lemme tell you a thing o…
JoinTheRain
RTS Design in Hypercoven
a11
Evil Gacha Games and the…
ffswowsucks
INDEPENDIENTE LA CTM
XenOsky
Customize Sidebar...

Website Feedback

Closed Threads



Active: 1380 users

[ASL8] Ro8 Preview PT.2 - Lights Out!

Forum Index > BW General
9 CommentsPost a Reply

[ASL8] Ro8 Preview PT.2 - Lights Out!

Text byBLinD-RawR
Graphics byv1
August 11th, 2019 06:45 GMT
logo


Time to wrap up the Ro8 and see who's truly worth their salt in this tournament. ASL8 has thrown us so many surprises with players like Sacsri, Action, and Light wowing us while great players like Jaedong and Mini simultaneously disappointing us. To put it simply: no one could have predicted the tournament we have now. As things are getting hot and we reach the boiling point, the question lingers: does experience trump all, or is it time for someone new to bring the heat?

Let's get to the predictions!


Table of contents

  • Intro
  •  
  • Video Recaps
  •  
  • Light vs Flash
  • Rain vs Sacsri
  •  
  • (Wiki)Liquipedia


Video Recaps








Match 1 Recap

In The Way of Glory



With (T)Flash himself confirming ASL8 might be his last tournament due to injuries accrued over his 13-year-long tenure in professional StarCraft, fans are sure to rally to the studio in droves to support the greatest gamer of all time in his (possibly) last competitive foray. With three OSL, three MSL, and three ASL titles under his belt, will the scene get to see God Young Ho reign supreme one last time? Standing in his way in the Ro8 is TvZ prodigy Light, who (quite frankly) has seen better days. Having attempted a switch to Protoss not long ago, the 29 year old Terran barely squeaked through to the quarterfinals of ASL8 by not throwing as hard as his opponents.

If (T)Light were to face off against a Zerg of high regard, I'm sure there'd be a clear argument to make for Light's chances, but lady the luck seems to have grimaced in disdain rather than smile, for Light's opponent is the most decorated player in the entire history of Brood War. Light has only played two TvTs in the entire history of the ASL: a 1-0 over JyJ in ASL8 and a quick 0-1 loss to Flash in ASL6. While his 60-37 record in sponsored TvT matches in 2019 isn't shabby by any means (a respectable 61.9% win rate), it doesn't even come close to how well Flash does in this matchup, which is 57-15 in 2019. That's a whopping 79.2% win ratio. That's 11.1% better than the second best TvTer in sponmatches in 2019, Shinee. Flash also happens to have the highest winrate in TvT in the ASL: 73.9% with a 17-6 mapscore. Suffice it to say the stats aren't exactly in Light's favor.

There's nothing less enticing than the prospect of having to try and build a case for an underdog in as predictable a matchup as the TvT mirror. What exactly does Light have going for him? Quite frankly, I can't find anything. There are a number of external factors that could come into play though. Flash has been putting off his mandatory military service for quite some time, he's apparently getting serious with his bird, and his shoulder and wrist-related injuries are proving too severe for him to continue practicing at the current rate. What if Effort's victory over the Ultimate Weapon in the grand final of ASL6 was the tipping point, the end of an unmatched reign of dominance in professional StarCraft?

Whatever the outcome, I'm confident Flash's statements regarding his future in esports were not just a clever ploy or some publicity stunt aimed at boosting viewership. I got into StarCraft with the release of SC2 in the summer of 2010. The likes of BoxeR, iloveoov, TheMarine, or ElkY were legends of yore, still present, but not quite so. Flash had already asserted himself as the best of the best. And I'm sure I wasn't alone in thinking that things are going to be different this time and that Flash isn't going to fade into obscurity. Nothing lasts forever, though, and the heroes of my teens are now paving the way for a new wave of pros that obviously won't have the same effect on my perception of StarCraft as the people I grew up watching did. They'll be someone else's heroes.

But there will be time for similar musings once we've actually waved goodbye to the reign of Flash. For now...yeah, this quarterfinal is going to be a bludgeoning.


(T)Flash wins 3-0 and advances to the Ro4!


Match 2 Preview

Rubicon



After ending up—to his delight, no doubt—with three other Protoss players in the Ro16, (P)Rain now has to make history and defeat a Zerg in the Ro8 of the ASL. While his opponent on Tuesday made headlines just by virtue of qualifying and is nowhere as intimidating as Larva or Effort, Rain would do well to prepare for this match.

PvZ is historically Rain's weakest matchup, which clearly shows in ASL Seasons 4 and 6. Online, he’s lost 8 of his 12 games versus Zerg in August (most of them to ZerO) and barely managed to break even in 68 games since July. However, Rain is still a formidable adversary in an offline best-of setting. He likes to mix gateway and forge openings, he has the sneakiest of Dark Templar. and he is wary enough to survive trickery and roll the opponent with formidable macro. Most importantly, he has immense big stage experience, probably forgot what it’s like to have to play qualifiers, and is one of two players to be crowned both ASL and KSL champion...which leads us to the next problem: the disparity in experience might lead to underestimation and recklessness. We’ve seen Rain overextend and take unfavorable exchanges time and again versus Zerg, and as it turns out, Rain’s greatest enemy on Tuesday may be himself.

(Z)Sacsri advanced to the Ro16 last season just to be defeated by Rain in a really peculiar game on Whiteout, so history could be considered against him. His online record against Rain is also negative (2-3), and his total record vs Protoss is sitting at 45.5% since July. But the quality of his games so far in the tournament belies his mediocre online statistics.

Sacsri is undoubtedly the dark horse of this tournament by surprising everybody defeating Flash in the Ro24 and topping his group. He then capitalized on his considerable ZvZ prowess and advanced to his first elimination match after beating Soulkey. Altogether, he calmly defended a 2-gate against GuemChi, brilliantly denied Flash’s scout and then defeated him with great tactical usage of burrow, ruthlessly punished an unorthodox Reaver/Dragoon build from Horang2, and impressed us with his micro against Soulkey. All those games provided glimpses of a solid tournament player that could stand up to the best. But are glimpses of good early defense and brilliant tactics enough to overcome the difference in experience? We don’t know if Sacsri has the mechanics to try and contest Rain’s formidable macro late game, and in a Bo5 series, pulling off a good hydra bust or ling all-in once won’t be enough.

Rain chose to veto Multiverse from the mappool, whereas Sacsri banned Block Chain. This leaves us with Overwatch, Neo Ground Zero, Neo Sylphid, Tripod and Neo Blood Ridge to be played in that particular order. Overwatch can be considered a Protoss-friendly map through both geography and statistics (54.5%) and suits Rain’s macro forte. On Neo Ground Zero, the balance is statistically skewed towards Zerg at 56.3% with its flanking potential and dubious third gas prospects for Protoss. Neo Sylphid is the most balanced map in the pool across all matchups and Protoss versus Zerg is no exception.

Tripod’s circular nature and backdoor mechanics make it a tough map for Protoss versus Zerg, and so far no obvious solution has been found for the problems these features present, as both Mini and Horang2 lost to Zerg early- and mid-game aggression. Last comes Neo Bloody Ridge, a map with pretty much balanced stats in the matchup and features that allow for a variety of strategies and maybe slightly favor Hive-tech Zerg. Rain, however, presents us with a statistical anomaly on that map and has lost all five sponsored games he’s played in the matchup.

With all that being said, the pressure is still very much on Sacsri to perform. Taking out a top player like Flash with a specialized, well-executed build in a Bo1 is no small feat, but a Bo5 series with arguably the best player in the world right now is an entirely different beast. Without disregarding the considerable improvement Sacsri’s demonstrated, I am highly skeptical that he can pull off a win against Rain in the stressful environment that is a televised offline best-of series in the elimination stage of a premier tournament. Should Rain not fail to scout, lose a series of mind games or grossly underestimate his opponent, he’s the strong favorite here, and a clean sweep is not at all unlikely. I expect him to come prepared and not fall victim to hubris.


(P)Rain wins 3-0 and advances to the Ro4!





Writers: TaardadAiel, Ziggy
Graphics: v1
Editors: EsportsJohn

Facebook Twitter Reddit
Brood War EICWoo Jung Ho, never forget.| Twitter: @BLinDRawR
TL+ Member
Wonk
Profile Joined March 2017
546 Posts
August 11 2019 07:47 GMT
#2
I expect sacsri to take maybe one game off rain, but I wouldn't be surprised at 2 3-0s this week
BisuDagger
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
Bisutopia19250 Posts
August 11 2019 10:24 GMT
#3
On August 11 2019 16:47 Wonk wrote:
I expect sacsri to take maybe one game off rain, but I wouldn't be surprised at 2 3-0s this week

Agreed. These are some pretty huge mismatches. Given this might be the end for Flash, I want him to crush everyone lol
ModeratorFormer Afreeca Starleague Caster: http://afreeca.tv/ASL2ENG2
SlayerS_BunkiE
Profile Blog Joined May 2009
Canada1707 Posts
Last Edited: 2019-08-11 14:34:53
August 11 2019 14:34 GMT
#4
On August 11 2019 19:24 BisuDagger wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 11 2019 16:47 Wonk wrote:
I expect sacsri to take maybe one game off rain, but I wouldn't be surprised at 2 3-0s this week

Agreed. These are some pretty huge mismatches. Given this might be the end for Flash, I want him to crush everyone lol

I cant remember anyone actually winning his farewell tournament though.. also no one has ever won a league 4 times?
iloveby.SlayerS_BunkiE[Shield]
TiQ.SinGi
Profile Joined December 2004
Norway385 Posts
Last Edited: 2019-08-11 15:40:08
August 11 2019 15:39 GMT
#5
Rain vs Sacsri will be interesting in terms of what openings they will choose. Curious to see if Sacsri opts for some type of busts/all-inns, drop-play variations or if he will stick to macro-mode. Personally, I think he would be better off mixing it up, keeping Rain guessing/in the dark as much as possible. I also agree with the argument of a bo5-series/grand stage favouring Rains experience. Rain's macro is also on point, if he gets the ball running, get his tech-tree up and going, templars, psi-storms, upgrades, corsair-fleet etc. I think Sacsri will be in for some trouble. However, Rain is known for losing his head some times, I remember a series vs Larva where he threw countless protoss warriors to their deaths of Larvas sim-city again and again. But its a different Rain now, and I think he will take the series 3-1.

As for the question of league titles the most a person has won a particular premier title is 3 times (4 golden mouse winners in OSL- Nada, July, Jaedong & Flash). MSL 3 time winners: Nada, iloveoov, savior, Bisu & Flash.
In ASL Flash is the only one with 3 titles and the only one winning all three back-to-back.

So Flash can make history (again). Hoping for Flash finals (vs Snow)



“Approved attributes and their relation to face make every man his own jailer; this is a fundamental social constraint even though each man may like his cell.” -Goffman
Akio
Profile Blog Joined January 2019
Finland1838 Posts
August 12 2019 10:59 GMT
#6
I think FlaSh vs Rain semis is almost guaranteed, but still expect Sacsri to bring some cool builds and maybe take a game or even two from Rain.
Mine gas, build tanks.
TornadoSteve
Profile Joined March 2018
1062 Posts
August 12 2019 12:31 GMT
#7
Best shot for sascri is to go for long macro games, if he does just that, who knows what can happen
I think Rain will win, but thats far from being a walk in the park imho
M3t4PhYzX
Profile Joined March 2019
Poland4200 Posts
August 12 2019 13:01 GMT
#8
That was a very nice TvT series!

must watch for Terran mirror fans.
odi profanum vulgus et arceo
BisuDagger
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
Bisutopia19250 Posts
August 13 2019 00:51 GMT
#9
On August 12 2019 22:01 M3t4PhYzX wrote:
That was a very nice TvT series!

must watch for Terran mirror fans.

Agreed. And that casting analysis was at its best too.
ModeratorFormer Afreeca Starleague Caster: http://afreeca.tv/ASL2ENG2
fearthequeen
Profile Joined November 2011
United States787 Posts
August 13 2019 06:54 GMT
#10
Rain vs Sacsri seems very unpredictable. Definitely don't expect a 3-0. Slight edge to Rain's preparation/mind game skills, but all else is about equal.

NAKR`flying
Please log in or register to reply.
Live Events Refresh
[BSL 2025] Weekly
18:00
#13
LiquipediaDiscussion
Maestros of the Game
17:00
Group Stage - Group C
ComeBackTV 1188
CranKy Ducklings517
IndyStarCraft 282
BRAT_OK 147
CosmosSc2 92
Rex83
EnkiAlexander 71
LiquipediaDiscussion
[ Submit Event ]
Live Streams
Refresh
StarCraft 2
IndyStarCraft 282
BRAT_OK 147
CosmosSc2 92
Rex 83
Temp0 62
ForJumy 1
StarCraft: Brood War
LaStScan 127
Dewaltoss 98
sSak 95
sas.Sziky 31
NaDa 13
IntoTheRainbow 9
Noble 8
Dota 2
The International59927
Dendi1069
Fuzer 253
420jenkins232
League of Legends
JimRising 327
Counter-Strike
Fnx 1252
Stewie2K442
Heroes of the Storm
Khaldor190
Other Games
Grubby3615
FrodaN2053
summit1g1683
fl0m1292
ToD436
KnowMe294
Hui .179
Sick0
Organizations
StarCraft 2
Blizzard YouTube
StarCraft: Brood War
BSLTrovo
sctven
[ Show 19 non-featured ]
StarCraft 2
• printf 83
• musti20045 45
• Adnapsc2 4
• Kozan
• Migwel
• sooper7s
• AfreecaTV YouTube
• intothetv
• IndyKCrew
• LaughNgamezSOOP
StarCraft: Brood War
• FirePhoenix4
• STPLYoutube
• ZZZeroYoutube
• BSLYoutube
Dota 2
• masondota2558
League of Legends
• Doublelift3061
Other Games
• imaqtpie805
• Shiphtur198
• tFFMrPink 19
Upcoming Events
OSC
1h 39m
RSL Revival
13h 39m
Cure vs Bunny
Creator vs Zoun
Maestros of the Game
20h 39m
Maru vs Lambo
herO vs ShoWTimE
BSL Team Wars
22h 39m
Team Hawk vs Team Sziky
Sparkling Tuna Cup
1d 13h
Monday Night Weeklies
1d 19h
The PondCast
4 days
Online Event
5 days
BSL Team Wars
5 days
Team Bonyth vs Team Dewalt
BSL Team Wars
5 days
[ Show More ]
Maestros of the Game
6 days
Cosmonarchy
6 days
Bonyth vs Dewalt
[BSL 2025] Weekly
6 days
Liquipedia Results

Completed

Proleague 2025-09-02
SEL Season 2 Championship
HCC Europe

Ongoing

Copa Latinoamericana 4
BSL 20 Team Wars
KCM Race Survival 2025 Season 3
BSL 21 Qualifiers
ASL Season 20
CSL 2025 AUTUMN (S18)
LASL Season 20
RSL Revival: Season 2
Maestros of the Game
Chzzk MurlocKing SC1 vs SC2 Cup #2
BLAST Open Fall 2025
BLAST Open Fall Qual
Esports World Cup 2025
BLAST Bounty Fall 2025
BLAST Bounty Fall Qual
IEM Cologne 2025
FISSURE Playground #1

Upcoming

2025 Chongqing Offline CUP
BSL Polish World Championship 2025: Warsaw LAN
BSL Season 21
BSL 21 Team A
EC S1
BLAST Rivals Fall 2025
IEM Chengdu 2025
PGL Masters Bucharest 2025
Thunderpick World Champ.
MESA Nomadic Masters Fall
CS Asia Championships 2025
ESL Pro League S22
StarSeries Fall 2025
FISSURE Playground #2
TLPD

1. ByuN
2. TY
3. Dark
4. Solar
5. Stats
6. Nerchio
7. sOs
8. soO
9. INnoVation
10. Elazer
1. Rain
2. Flash
3. EffOrt
4. Last
5. Bisu
6. Soulkey
7. Mini
8. Sharp
Sidebar Settings...

Advertising | Privacy Policy | Terms Of Use | Contact Us

Original banner artwork: Jim Warren
The contents of this webpage are copyright © 2025 TLnet. All Rights Reserved.