by BigFan

One of the hardest groups to predict this SSL, group E was full of many surprises. In particular, Olympus, a player who hasn't participated in any recent tournaments showed that he was able to hang out and best some of the other players in this group. The first game between Iris and Pure took place on Circuit Breaker. Pure opened with a proxy gate and tried to put some pressure on the factory expand of Iris. However, Iris was steadfast in his defense, easily repelling the attack before going for a greedy style that saw him keep up and at times, surpass Pure's base count. After Pure managed to take down Iris' fourth base, Iris marched towards his expansion and took major engagements through great positioning and sniping of high templars to win the game. The other game between hero and Olympus was also played on Circuit Breaker. Olympus played standard with a forge FE while hero opted for safe play in pool first. Both players were pretty passive for the most part aside from some failed speedlot attacks by Olympus. Once these were deflected, hero counterattacked with a large group of zerglings and hydras which hit right before storm was finished researching to easily take the game:


This led to a winners match confrontation between hero and Iris on Neo Jade. Iris opted for proxy factory while hero went for an expansion pool opening. Though Iris did get some drone kills with his vultures, hero was able to survive the attack and teched up for mutalisks. With exceptional mutalisk micro, he kept on reducing Iris' army while his own zergling/hydra army grew larger. Eventually, he busted the front of Iris' expansion and strolled into the main afterwards to advance in first place. The losers match saw Olympus go up against Pure on Neo Jade. Olympus decided to go for aggression with his early zealots and used pylon shenanigans which caught Pure offguard. He followed this up with a 3 gate which hit the perfect timing as Pure was trying to expand. Olympus caused a lot of damage and took his own expansion behind the attack. He repelled a dark templar drop from Pure and smashed his large army into Pure's expansion to advance to the final match:


The final showdown of the group was between Iris and Olympus on New Heartbreak Ridge. Iris opened with a rax factory while Olympus went for double gateways. Both players expanded and teched up. Olympus tried to attack from the back entrance but was stopped in his tracks. Several times, Iris tried to deny Olympus' expansions but his attacks were staved off through some amazing engagements and mine explosions. With a much smaller army left, Iris defended while taking his third, however, against the might of continuous attacks from Olympus, he conceded.

by BigFan

The last group of the Ro24 featured established veteran players such as ZerO, Movie, Jaehoon and the second highest ranked Fish Server player, Sharp. Sharp faced off against Movie in the first game on Circuit Breaker. He opened with a barracks then factory and got a bunker for defense. He went for a greedy play style, matching and even surpassing Movie's base count on the back on good vulture harass that kept Movie on the defense. Sharp eventually pushed towards the center easily brushing aside Movie's paltry attacks and took the game once he made it to Movie's expansion. The next matchup took place between ZerO and Jaehoon on the same map. Jaehoon opened with a forge FE then added a robo for reavers while ZerO opened with a pool double expand build. Despite trying his best, Jaehoon made a lot of mistakes and had to tap out due to ZerO's impeccable defense and solid unit control which netted him several shuttle snipes, corsair and zealot kills:


In the winners match, ZerO played Sharp on Neo Jade for the opportunity to advance in first place. Sharp decided to go for a proxy factory and starport while ZerO opened started with an expansion pool build. For a moment, it looked like Sharp will be the one advancing, however, some slight mis-control on his part and a perfect sunken timing by ZerO helped cement his defeat (gif). The losers match saw a clash of two Protoss players, Movie and Jaehoon on Neo Jade. Both players opened with a similar build, however, Jaehoon opted for an expansion adding a robo soon after while Movie decided to go for a robo and 3 gates. Movie was easily able to overwhelm during engagements and took the win.


A chance at redemption, Movie shone in his game play against Sharp on New Heartbreak Ridge. After going up to two gates against the factory expand opening of Sharp, Movie was easily able to walk with several goons past Sharp's bunker. Through some impressive micro, he took out several tanks, marines and shut down the expansion completely while claiming his own. He eventually expanded again to grab a third as Sharp tried to recover. A zealot drop on tanks in Sharp's main while simultaneously attacking the re-established expansion with a large group of goons was all that Movie needed to claim victory much to Sharp's dismay.

The round of 24 had some nail biters, teeth grinders, and hair pullers. Practically anything that could cause self inflicting pain occurred during these matches. For those of you who missed out on this fun, here are the absolute must sees!

Right off the bat, the Ro16 begins with an incredibly difficult group A, with perhaps only group D rivaling it for the title of “Group of Death”. Three out of the four group A foursome are in the top 10 of the Elo. Two of the four advanced far into the last SSL, including the champions of SSL 10, sSak, and HungryApp Starz League/KSL, Mind. Add SSL Ro16 participant Movie and a former Starleague champion rounding into peak form, EffOrt, to the mix, and sparks are bound to fly.

sSak has been relatively quiet since winning the SSL last season, dabbling in small online tournaments with mixed results, losing to ZerO a handful of times. sSak continues to stream very regularly, sitting atop both the latest Power Rank and the current Fish server rankings while frequently participating in sponsored matches. A 250-300 APM player, his TvT is as strong as there is in the post-KeSPA scene, with very solid TvP and above average, but vulnerable, TvZ play. Fortunately for sSak, the group features two Terran and only one Zerg.


Movie has largely disappeared from the scene, much like Killer and Kwanro, relegated to only making appearance at the big money tournaments. Having streamed sparingly, it’s difficult to assess his form. From the Ro24 matches, he had some trouble against a solid Terran and was unable to expand or macro nearly as hard as Sharp, but came back with early aggression to earn his later two wins. His strongest match-up remains PvZ, but finds himself in a group with two strong Terran opponents. Playing so infrequently, can Movie dig into his reserve of experience to power his way through the mid and late games? That remains to be seen.

Mind has remained very active since the SSL and victory at the KSL, playing frequently at smaller tournaments with varying success. While he took the victory at the HoSic SL, he has been eliminated by Protoss players in several of such leagues. Mind is an interesting paradox, with his TvZ play among the strongest in the scene, his TvT is far more mediocre and his greatest vulnerability, as he endured at the Terran-centric SSL 10. Fortunately, Mind’s TvP is quite robust, as he will depend on a victory over Movie to advance in this group.

EffOrt has stormed up the Elo rankings and the Afreeca scene with a large audience and brought a flair to the largely imbalanced TvZ results we’ve seen in the post-KeSPA era. With some success at the small online tournaments, winning the 41 Maki SL, EffOrt has also endured defeat to Zerg and Terran opponents at the Draemong and Seaside leagues. EffOrt’s undeniably the most potent ZvT force active today, complemented by strong ZvP play. His ZvZ, alas, is mediocre and remains his biggest vulnerability, but fortunately group A finds him with two Terran and no Zerg opponents.


Group A has all the makings of a classic that will require extra sets in overtime to settle:

• sSak should have a sure-win over Mind, but lose to EffOrt. sSak has been actively practicing during his stream and should be able to overcome a rusty Movie, particularly on any map aside from HBR. 2-1 to tiebreaker.
  
• Movie will have difficulty with both Terran just as we saw in the Ro24, who will both be anticipating some cheese play, particularly on HBR. Assuming Movie prepares, his only victory may be against EffOrt, else he’ll be exiting with a 0-3 record.
  
• Mind is likely to lose to sSak. As for the other two opponents, Mind could very well defeat both Movie and EffOrt on any of the three standard 4-player maps, with HBR more of a toss-up; I'm inclined to think he'll only take one of the two, most likely Movie. 2-1 to tiebreaker.
  
• EffOrt should defeat sSak soundly, with Movie and Mind more of a toss-up. Assuming one win out of the two, mostly likely Mind, EffOrt should also make it to the tiebreaker at 2-1.

In the tiebreaker, sSak will most likely defeat Mind while EffOrt will likely defeat sSak. This scenario then benefits EffOrt, who is left to determine his own fate against Mind -- if he wins the ZvT battle, he advances directly, but even if EffOrt loses to Mind, the threesome would just repeat the tiebreaker. It may take an extra round or two, but EffOrt will break through eventually.

EffOrt and sSak to advance.

Group B, on the surface, seems like a straightforward prediction with the SSL 10 silver medalist Last and the streaking ZerO, but we mustn’t forget about a well-prepared Olympus or the dark horse, Killer. Once again, three players from the Elo top 10 will duke it out.

Last built a name for himself with his play at SSL 10, but he has continued to build on it at smaller tournaments like the PianO SL and Draemong. Although he did not win either, he advanced to the latter stages in both. His TvT is virtually unrivaled in the post-KeSPA scene, and his impressive 400 APM and long hours toiling away on Fish has substantially improved his TvP and TvZ.


Olympus is very much an unknown to the scene, but has impressed against the underprepared Sea and Pure in earlier rounds. He has particularly feasted on HBR to harass and macro his way to resounding PvT victories, and may very well be a force against Last. His PvZ has left much to be desired, and ZerO and Killer will be not be slouches.

Killer’s largely been absent from the scene, not streaming for months at a time, but has resumed activities over the past few weeks. Putting his 350 APM on display during sponsored Afreeca matches, he has shown his title of Mini-Dong is still valid, particularly in the ZvZ match-up. If he delves deep into his experience bank, his ZvP can also be virtually unrivaled, but that remains to be seen, as we saw how vulnerable he was to a well-prepared Sea.KH in the Ro24. Killer’s ZvT will forever be his weakest match-up, but fortunately, there’s only one Terran in this group.

ZerO has remained strong since his KSL third place victory and even briefly ascended to the #1 position on Elo. Although he has not claimed the championship at any recent smaller leagues, he enters the Ro16 with a superb 61% winrate since the start of 2015. The only player seemingly capable of beating ZerO consistently in league play has been Sea, with ZvT his most vulnerable match-up. Although not quite at the top of the echelon in either ZvP or ZvZ, he has been more than serviceable over the past several months.


To break it down:

• ZerO is certain to defeat Olympus. Last and Killer, however, will be more challenging. Last may well have the upper hand on traditional four player maps such as Circuit Breaker, where the Terran won’t need to expand far from home. Meanwhile, anything can happen in a Bo1 against Killer. Expect ZerO to take at least one of the two, 2-1 or 3-0.
  
• Last should have his way against Killer and perhaps Olympus, if he sufficiently prepares for HBR. ZerO may well be more of a challenge, but two wins will ensure Last at least a spot in a tiebreaker, if not advancing outright. 2-1.
  
• Killer should easily beat Olympus, even if he isn't quite in top form, while likely losing to Last. ZerO will be a toss-up -- if Killer wants a shot at a tiebreaker situation, he will need to practice hard, but seeing how lackadaisical he has been of late, I don’t see it happening. 1-2.
  
• Olympus' underdog fairy-tale journey ends in the Ro16. Two strong ZvPers will seal his fate, and barring the performance of an unprepared Last, Olympus may well endure an 0-3 end.

ZerO and Last to advance.

Featuring Mong, free, Hyuk and GuemChi. Another group featuring a somewhat straight forward prediction with Mong and free being on a higher tier than Hyuk and GuemChi, but it remains to be seen what can happen with a bit of preparation from the the latter two leading to a tiebreak situation.

Since the last SSL, Mong has been on a similar boat as sSak, making it to the Ro8 of Terror Starleague and losing to hero (1-2) and the Ro4 of Draemong Starleague losing to Jaehoon (2-3), both of which were pretty close series. Mong will have his TvP skills tested this round by free and GuemChi in this group and, while Mong did knock free out in the Ro8 of the last SSL, things may not be the same this time around. His TvZ on the other hand, may prove to be more than a match for Hyuk.


Advancing from the Ro24, free showed some excellent PvT skills against Ample, who gained a reputation on Afreeca as a Protoss sniper and shows why his PvT is not to be trifled with. His PvP at the moment is also pretty solid and should be considered the better player against GuemChi and while he did lose to EffOrt in the winner’s game of their Ro24 group, he did 3-0 ZerO in the Draemong Starleague in a very convincing manner (even making a scout in their last game ) showing that Hyuk won’t be his biggest worry.


Ro24 Group D winners Hyuk and GuemChi end up in the same group again with the odds against them even higher, unlike their Ro24 opponents Mong and free have no obvious weaknesses and are a lot more active in the scene, Hyuk’s saving grace is that he has shown that he can play against Protoss, especially against GuemChi and although it was a Bo3, GuemChi did take a set against Mong in the Draemong Starleague, so he may have a chance.

• Mong needs get his TvP in gear especially against free, HBR is going to be the terror map for him seeing how its affected the match-up in tournament. Most probably going to 3-0 or advance in a tiebreaker.
  
• free might catch a great opportunity if he encounters Mong on HBR but otherwise should make it off by beating Hyuk and GuemChi. 2-1 or advance in a tiebreaker.
  
• Hyuk should beat out GuemChi, but its unlikely that he’d fare well against Mong or free regardless of map. 1-2.
  
• Depending on preparation, GuemChi might take a game of Mong, especially if he plays him on HBR but the odds are against him against both free and Hyuk. 0-3 but could force a tiebreaker situation but fail to advance or even be a part of it.

Mong and free to advance

Where the D stands for Death, or at least it's as much a group of death as Group A, Group D features HiyA, Bisu, hero and Larva with the group gearing towards a tie-break situation, the question remains is who sits out of it?

Coming from his Ro24 victory Bisu once again shares his group with Larva and two far tougher opponents, but the odds, as always, are in his favor with BvZ still alive and kicking and has already shown his dominance to both Zerg recently with Larva in the Ro24 and hero in the Terror SL where he took a 3-1 victory against him in the semifinals. His PvT has also been shown to be up to the S-Class standards and HiyA who does have great TvP may not be able to handle Bisu. Honestly the biggest threat to Bisu in the SSL right now is his upcoming Military Service enlistment date.



HiyA’s achievements post SSL10 were making to the Ro8 of Draemong Starleague and the Finals of the 41 Maki Starleague. His TvZ is still his best match-up but most of his tournament victories against Zerg this year has been against Larva (who luckily happens to be in this group) and one Bo3 against EffOrt. His TvP is also similar with Jaehoon and Shuttle being his biggest victims, neither of whom hold a candle to Bisu.



hero’s case is quite peculiar in a very late-2011-BeSt-esque way since the last SSL he has traded some of his ZvP prowess to improve his ZvT, thus losing to players like Jaehoon and free in a Bo3 series (with a career 72% ZvP win-rate), but beating Mong in a Bo3 and 3-0ing Sea in a Bo5 to win the Shark Seaside Tournament, a trade-off like that makes it harder to deal with Bisu but it does make him a threat to HiyA and even with his subpar ZvZ, Larva’s ZvZ is far worse.

Larva has it the worst of all. Having to be in the same group as Bisu again, even with his best ZvP match-up, he's been given the hardest possible challenge. Then add HiyA, against whom he has a deplorable record, and he still has an challenging match-up of ZvZ against hero.

• No one in the group seems to be a threat to Bisu except maybe hero with good preparation, or if Larva pulls a 3 Hatch Hydra against him on HBR and somehow makes it work, but it's unlikely. 3-0 for Bisu, but if forced into a loss will most likely still advance in a tiebreaker.
  
• HiyA beats Larva easily and is definitely favored against hero even with his improving ZvT. 2-1 for HiyA, Most likely to advance after Bisu in a tiebreaker.
  
• The only way hero can advance from this group is if he wins 2 games and doesn’t force a tiebreaker, especially if it’s a tiebreaker that might involve both Bisu and HiyA.
  
• Larva needs a miracle. He might have a chance against Bisu considering he's playing him on HBR, but he can still very easily fall to him and the rest of the group.

Bisu and HiyA to advance