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On January 26 2010 14:40 blade55555 wrote:
For the post saying about flash who could be using his time for school will Jaedong could be doing the same thing along with every other progamer out there, that was a horrible argument/comment.
By your logic, since Jaedong got tens of thousands dollars more than Flash from an unfair ruling, maybe that will go towards helping to pay Jaedong's tuition for school in the future whereas Flash got the short end of the stick?
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Sucks for what happend but i think after you look at all the facts... it was fair... sucks but fair.
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Well, the latest Flash interview is a total contradiction to everything the op has analyzed (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=110899). Flash says in the interview:
"I'm not saying this because I lost, but I seriously was at a decent situation at that point. That's why it made me so depressed. After the finals a lot of people told me while practicing that “You were at a decent situation” which made me angrier."
Two things from this quote:
1) Flash believed he was in a good situation when the blackout hit, contrary to all the poor analysis in this thread that claimed he wasn't
2) He then says, "After the finals a lot of people told me while practicing that 'You were at a decent situation'" "A lot of people while practicing" implies other pros he was practicing with.
The op's analysis in this thread could not have been anymore short sighted.
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On January 27 2010 07:18 StarcraftMan wrote:
Well, the latest Flash interview is a total contradiction to everything the op has analyzed (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=110899). Flash says in the interview:
"I'm not saying this because I lost, but I seriously was at a decent situation at that point. That's why it made me so depressed. After the finals a lot of people told me while practicing that “You were at a decent situation” which made me angrier."
Two things from this quote:
1) Flash believed he was in a good situation when the blackout hit, contrary to all the poor analysis in this thread that claimed he wasn't
2) He then says, "After the finals a lot of people told me while practicing that 'You were at a decent situation'" "A lot of people while practicing" implies other pros he was practicing with.
The op's analysis in this thread could not have been anymore short sighted.
brilliant analysis! the other guy and people consoling him say that he was not boned, that is irrefutable evidence that disproves "the poor analysis in this thread." The mods should close this thread and purge it for spreading such horrible lies!
For the record, I am neither supporting nor condemning Kespa's decision. I just think it's funny that you honest to god believe that because Flash believes he was in a decent situation, that invalidates the tireless efforts to objectively analyze the scenario in this thread. Just think about how often you feel like you're doing fine in a game of BW just to have your opponent roll you 3 minutes later.
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On January 27 2010 07:18 StarcraftMan wrote:
Well, the latest Flash interview is a total contradiction to everything the op has analyzed (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=110899). Flash says in the interview:
"I'm not saying this because I lost, but I seriously was at a decent situation at that point. That's why it made me so depressed. After the finals a lot of people told me while practicing that “You were at a decent situation” which made me angrier."
Two things from this quote:
1) Flash believed he was in a good situation when the blackout hit, contrary to all the poor analysis in this thread that claimed he wasn't
2) He then says, "After the finals a lot of people told me while practicing that 'You were at a decent situation'" "A lot of people while practicing" implies other pros he was practicing with.
The op's analysis in this thread could not have been anymore short sighted.
So Flash's practice partners (and friends) didn't tell him " sorry Flash you were done"... of course they will tell him he was still in it, Especially if he tells them he thought he was. Who would go up to FLash (after this heartbreak) and actually tell him he LOST and get over it. There is some good analysis in this thread showing the advantage in favor of Jaedong. But it's not that far of a stretch for the hottest gamer in the world to think "i was in a decent situation" even though he was losing. A decision had to be made.
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On January 27 2010 07:31 Mogwai wrote:
brilliant analysis! the other guy and people consoling him say that he was not boned, that is irrefutable evidence that disproves "the poor analysis in this thread." The mods should close this thread and purge it for spreading such horrible lies!
For the record, I am neither supporting nor condemning Kespa's decision. I just think it's funny that you honest to god believe that because Flash believes he was in a decent situation, that invalidates the tireless efforts to objectively analyze the scenario in this thread. Just think about how often you feel like you're doing fine in a game of BW just to have your opponent roll you 3 minutes later.
Yes, and all these people are a better player than Flash, ROFL. So they must know the situtation better than Flash, who was at the console, who was the one playing the game, who knew what was currently being built, and who simply understands the game better than any of these so called "theory craft" analysts.
The funniest part is all these "theory craft" analysts claim Flash was seconds away from calling GG when the truth is, Flash was not even close to calling GG. It shows you how wrong the "theory analysts" are!
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Flash did not have complete information. Also, motbob is a lot lessed biased toward Flash than Flash or his friends are.
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On January 27 2010 07:51 TwoStep wrote:
Flash did not have complete information. Also, motbob is a lot lessed biased toward Flash than Flash or his friends are.
You know, when some "theory craft" analysts in this thread claim that the game was 99.9% in Jaedong's favor, you would think Flash would not claim he was in a "decent situation" when the blackout came. Because a 0.01% chance of winning is not in a "decent situation."
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On January 27 2010 07:49 StarcraftMan wrote:Show nested quote +On January 27 2010 07:31 Mogwai wrote:
brilliant analysis! the other guy and people consoling him say that he was not boned, that is irrefutable evidence that disproves "the poor analysis in this thread." The mods should close this thread and purge it for spreading such horrible lies!
For the record, I am neither supporting nor condemning Kespa's decision. I just think it's funny that you honest to god believe that because Flash believes he was in a decent situation, that invalidates the tireless efforts to objectively analyze the scenario in this thread. Just think about how often you feel like you're doing fine in a game of BW just to have your opponent roll you 3 minutes later. Yes, and all these people are a better player than Flash, ROFL. So they must know the situtation better than Flash, who was at the console, who was the one playing the game, who knew what was currently being built, and who simply understands the game better than any of these so called "theory craft" analysts. The funniest part is all these "theory craft" analysts claim Flash was seconds away from calling GG when the truth is, Flash was not even close to calling GG. It shows you how wrong the "theory analysts" are!
Do you even play Starcraft? Maybe you should watch the game and pay attention to all the analysis that has been done instead of just saying "Oh Flash was in a good position because he said so. You guys are all wrong."
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On January 27 2010 08:00 De4ngus wrote:Show nested quote +On January 27 2010 07:49 StarcraftMan wrote:On January 27 2010 07:31 Mogwai wrote:
brilliant analysis! the other guy and people consoling him say that he was not boned, that is irrefutable evidence that disproves "the poor analysis in this thread." The mods should close this thread and purge it for spreading such horrible lies!
For the record, I am neither supporting nor condemning Kespa's decision. I just think it's funny that you honest to god believe that because Flash believes he was in a decent situation, that invalidates the tireless efforts to objectively analyze the scenario in this thread. Just think about how often you feel like you're doing fine in a game of BW just to have your opponent roll you 3 minutes later. Yes, and all these people are a better player than Flash, ROFL. So they must know the situtation better than Flash, who was at the console, who was the one playing the game, who knew what was currently being built, and who simply understands the game better than any of these so called "theory craft" analysts. The funniest part is all these "theory craft" analysts claim Flash was seconds away from calling GG when the truth is, Flash was not even close to calling GG. It shows you how wrong the "theory analysts" are! Do you even play Starcraft? Maybe you should watch the game and pay attention to all the analysis that has been done instead of just saying "Oh Flash was in a good position because he said so. You guys are all wrong." of course he plays starcraft. his name is STARCRAFTMAN.
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On January 27 2010 07:51 TwoStep wrote:
Flash did not have complete information. Also, motbob is a lot lessed biased toward Flash than Flash or his friends are.
I'm sure Flash and his practice partners/coaches watched the VOD so they have all the info we have + actually being in the game.
And I also like how Flash and all of his practice partners (he has many practice partners outside of KTR) are apparently so biased/clearly didn't watch the game that Motbob's OP is obviously more informed. :/.
I really think if Flash felt his chances were as low as some said (99.9% obviously a huge exhadduration) then he would just say "yeah I was probably going to lose but even then the shock of the refs choice surprised me so much that blah blah blah" instead of what he actually did say.
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On January 27 2010 08:04 Vasoline73 wrote:
[I really think if Flash felt his chances were as low as some said (99.9% obviously a huge exhadduration) then he would just say "yeah I was probably going to lose but even then the shock of the refs choice surprised me so much that blah blah blah" instead of what he actually did say.
Yup, that's my point. The op claims that Flash had a 15% chance to win which is quite ridiculous because Flash would have least acknowledged Jaedong had the advantage if he had a a measlely 15% chance to win. Flash's statement clearly shows he was comfortable with his "decent situation" before the blackout and there was alot of game left to be played - contrary to all the "theory craft" analysts who claim there was no game left to be played and it was a 99.9% done deal.
The worst part about it is, Flash mentally conceded the series after the ruling by KESPA, as per his comments:
"When they decided that Jaedong won the match, I knew deep down inside I will lose the finals. Any progamer in my shoes would've lost the whole thing too after the decision."
Game 4 was just a formality at that point.
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United States11393 Posts
On January 27 2010 08:14 StarcraftMan wrote:
The worst part about it is, Flash mentally conceded the series after the ruling by KESPA, as per his comments:
"When they decided that Jaedong won the match, I knew deep down inside I will lose the finals. Any progamer in my shoes would've lost the whole thing too after the decision."
Game 4 was just a formality at that point.
Nice job quoting from an interview but then conveniently missing what he himself had to say about game 4.
- At game 4 you played worse than usual. Was it because of you previous game?
▲ The whole decision done by kespa really got me down. However, I cannot blame my 3rd set for losing the 4th set. Regardless of the outside factors, 4th set was a pure loss. That is why after the 4th set I went up to Jaedong hyung and congratulated him as soon as possible.
But I still felt empty because of the refs
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So yes, because Flash is a better pro-gamer than we are, our objective analysis goes to shit.
Because he SAID he was in a decent decision, then he clearly was, as he clearly was not running out of minerals, JD clearly lost his base at 7, and Flash was clearly about to roll over JD with his invincible 5 base macro. >_>
Look, the fact of the matter is that Flash was in a horrible position, not decent, not bad, horrible. Z was about to run off 6 gas, his all-in had failed, he ran out of minerals for his main (soon his nat), and needed all he could to defend his min-only natural. He had ~32 marines, while JD had defilers+ultralisks with 5/2 ups.
But hey, what do I know? Clearly, objectivity goes out the door compared to Flash's opinion. I mean, after all, the Pros are always right. ALWAYS.
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On January 27 2010 08:35 ghrur wrote:
So yes, because Flash is a better pro-gamer than we are, our objective analysis goes to shit.
You mean the same objective analysis that claimed Flash was seconds away from calling GG?
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The thing is Flash had no knowledge of JD's situation. And obviously players like to think they're still in the game for as long as they can. No player would have gg'd if they were in Flash's position - think about it, you killed his third and came very close to killing the double gas. In Flash's mind, he was doing ok, just needed to regroup for possibly another attack. But then you have to realize that he was soon going to be on only 6 mineral patches while JD had 5 gas and was still expanding when the game ended.
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The problem with such a major decision is that without info on food count, and resources it is strongly speculative. Yes jaedong had a 2 base lead on flash and more gas but A) the 7 o clock was being constantly harassed and was not at full drone saturation and B) the observer never click on the 4 o clock and so there is no way to know how saturated this base was either.
A theory.... considering flash was relentlessly attacking jaedong's expansion I would not be surprised if JD focused mainly on trying to pump troops from his 5 hatcheries rather than drones to try to keep up with flash's non stop m&m vessels.
At 18:50 looking at the mini map flash was still streaming a large force 5 seconds before the black out (both mnm and vessels) so he may not have had the same input but he was still maintaining a good output from his banked resources. At the same moment the observers are looking at jaedong's troops streaming in to the 7 oclock and it seems to be 4 zerglings 2 ultras and 4 scourge, a rather small force for a 4 base zerg woudn't you say?? To be honest army wise it seems pretty tied, I would say the key would be the micro of the scourge vs science vessels. If flash decided to expand to the 12 oclock it would be hard for JD to break it as his army would have to travel a long distance to reach the new base and it would leave him exposed to a counter on his many under-protected bases. This is just my theory.
As I said in the beginning it is all circumstantial, for this reason i believe it was a mistake to simply give the advantage to JD without solid evidence to back it up.
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On January 27 2010 11:02 QuakerOats wrote:
The thing is Flash had no knowledge of JD's situation. And obviously players like to think they're still in the game for as long as they can. No player would have gg'd if they were in Flash's position - think about it, you killed his third and came very close to killing the double gas. In Flash's mind, he was doing ok, just needed to regroup for possibly another attack. But then you have to realize that he was soon going to be on only 6 mineral patches while JD had 5 gas and was still expanding when the game ended.
Exactly.
Also these debates/trolls/flames are retarded.
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On January 28 2010 11:55 gmsts wrote:
The problem with such a major decision is that without info on food count, and resources it is strongly speculative. Yes jaedong had a 2 base lead on flash and more gas but A) the 7 o clock was being constantly harassed and was not at full drone saturation and B) the observer never click on the 4 o clock and so there is no way to know how saturated this base was either.
A theory.... considering flash was relentlessly attacking jaedong's expansion I would not be surprised if JD focused mainly on trying to pump troops from his 5 hatcheries rather than drones to try to keep up with flash's non stop m&m vessels.
At 18:50 looking at the mini map flash was still streaming a large force 5 seconds before the black out (both mnm and vessels) so he may not have had the same input but he was still maintaining a good output from his banked resources. At the same moment the observers are looking at jaedong's troops streaming in to the 7 oclock and it seems to be 4 zerglings 2 ultras and 4 scourge, a rather small force for a 4 base zerg woudn't you say?? To be honest army wise it seems pretty tied, I would say the key would be the micro of the scourge vs science vessels. If flash decided to expand to the 12 oclock it would be hard for JD to break it as his army would have to travel a long distance to reach the new base and it would leave him exposed to a counter on his many under-protected bases. This is just my theory.
As I said in the beginning it is all circumstantial, for this reason i believe it was a mistake to simply give the advantage to JD without solid evidence to back it up.
Right before the blackout Jaedong had a couple ultra's some lings like you said with some scourge and 2 defilers with energy. Also if you look at the minimap flash was retreating back to his mineral only.
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Firstly... Jaedong's 3rd gas at the 3 o'clock position isn't up and operational until 15min 40sec... so other than about 3.5 minutes of mining time on the top right base Jaedong has been on 2 gas to Flash's 2 gas. So in other words for roughly 12 minutes of the game Jaedong was economically behind.
His 4th gas at the 7 o'clock position didn't start mining until 16min 20sec... and JD pulled his drones off gas at 16min 35sec to help fend off Flash's army (which is either a huge mistake by JD, or more likely a testament to the fact that he's running low on reinforcing units)...
As for his supposed 5th gas the hatchery at the 1 o'clock position didn't even finish until 18min 33sec and no extractor had even been started... so thats at least another 40 seconds, from whenever it starts to build that the gas is up.
According to EvoChamber's top notch analysis...
Flash's] first refinery finished at 3:20, his second refinery at 7:40. Gas mines at 100 units every 20 seconds. This leaves Flash at the time of the blackout with 400 gas left in his main geyser and 1700 gas left at his natural geyser.
However, if you look at both sides of the coin...
[Jaedong's] first refinery finished at 3:40, his second refinery at 4:40. Gas mines at 100 units every 20 seconds. This leaves Jaedong at the time of the blackout with 500 gas left in his main geyser and 800 gas left in his natural geyser.
Therefore in just over 2.5 minutes Jaedong would be down 2 geysers. Moreover, it's important to note that Zerg Ultra/Ling + Defilers are more than twice as gas demanding as SK Terran.
By my count Flash killed 22 Ultralisks, 9 Mutalisks, 2 Defilers and about a control group or more of Scourge (albeit most of them died killing Science Vessels)... not factoring in the 2 Ultralisks that were at practically no health, and all the gas intensive upgrades... Jaedong had spent over 5000 gas... which is the equivalent of 20 minutes on 3 bases... however, for the first 3 minutes Jaedong was on zero gas... and other than the final few minutes... and another few minutes when his top right base was mining gas... Jaedong spent most of the roughly 20 minute game on 2 geysers. In other words, for about 12 minutes of game, Jaedong was behind. Not only that but, once you factor in all the upgrades (probably close to 1.5-2k gas) and the gas intensive units that were still alive (at least 3 Ultras, 2 defilers, and a bunch of scourge... i.e. ~1000 gas)... Jaedong was very very low on gas.
Furthermore, if you notice on the minimap in Flash's base where his ramp is... you will notice a steady stream of units rallying from his Barracks to his natural expansion every 20 seconds. Also you will notice that every 80 seconds you will see 2 Science Vessels rallying from his Starports, to his natural expansion. At 18min and 18seconds you will see that his Barracks produce approximately 12 units (based on the fact that Flash had 12 production Barracks at his main) that rally to his natural expo... and at 18min and 38seconds you will see the same thing... in this time if you look closely there are also 2 Science Vessels that are produced and head to the same rally point.
You can claim that Flash was retreating at the end, however... if you notice very closely at the final split seconds of the match, there are a group of units about to leave Flash's base. Therefore it is logical to assume that he was only backing off his force to regroup with the reinforcements before initiating the assault once again. Counting the 3 vessels, 13 marines and 8 medics that Flash had outside of JD's bottom left base... and the ~24 units and 2 Science Vessels he had at his natural expansion... it is easy to assume that 39 marines, 8 medics, and 5 science vessels (2 of which would have had enough energy to irradiate) could have beaten Jaedong's rag-tag army of 3 Ultras (2 of which were one foot in the grave), 6 zerglings, and 2 defilers... with 2 support sunkens.
Granted I am a big Jaedong fan and was cheering for him... and who knows, maybe he could have pulled it off... reinforced his small army with say 12 - 20 zerglings and gotten really lucky... or sacrificed his bottom left base to counter Flash's new expansion... but the fact of the matter is that not only is it pretty absurd to say that Jaedong had an 85% chance to win... it would be generous to give him 50/50.
With no map control and a very small standing army, Flash could and would have expanded very easily... and once the bottom left base fell Jaedong would have been behind yet again.
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EPT
