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[FPL] WL 09-10 Discussion - Page 2

Forum Index > BW General
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Athos
Profile Blog Joined February 2008
United States2484 Posts
January 20 2010 17:35 GMT
#21
I finally broke the top 50 last round. I'm hoping that Savior puts on a good show for winner's league like he did last year.
SuperArc
Profile Blog Joined March 2009
Austria7781 Posts
January 20 2010 18:10 GMT
#22
On January 21 2010 02:32 mahrgell wrote:
Will Lineups still be announced before during WL? If so, when can the LU for 1st week be expected?


tomorrow
Snow - future of protoss! :) Nada = baller
So no fek
Profile Blog Joined June 2005
United States3001 Posts
January 20 2010 18:42 GMT
#23
I had an absolutely terrible run last season, due to some bad starting decisions, and overall inactivity. I had Skyhigh on my anti-team (I know, what kind of CJ fan am I?), because he was slumping for a bit, then as soon as he started doing well, I switched him for Stork, because it had looked like he was in a bit of a slump himself. Sure enough, immediately after that, Stork started owning up everything. And I was too lazy to really look into everything, so I kept my team as it was for the whole season, past that one trade or two.
#1 Shuttle fan - TeamLiquid CJ Entusman #36 BW4lyfe
GaliKo
Profile Joined November 2009
Canada207 Posts
Last Edited: 2010-01-20 20:19:02
January 20 2010 20:16 GMT
#24
I'm extremely excited for this as I get a kick out of TL events, but how exaclty do you guys prepare for this, what goes through your mind when you create your teams?

Like hell I can't figure out whats the difference between choosing one team over the other, never mind players..
ItsBigfoot
Profile Blog Joined December 2009
United States432 Posts
Last Edited: 2010-01-20 20:53:39
January 20 2010 20:47 GMT
#25
going off the luxury chaos theory, he shouldn't be priced 5$, he should be 3-4, somewhere in the middle of his normal 1-5

I mean, he's not guaranteed nor expected to play like a 5, and five puts him high enough where you can't just buy him as a filler. you'd be betting full price on something that might not get full value.

it's a luxury i can't afford
Kal Fighting!
Hier
Profile Blog Joined November 2009
2391 Posts
January 20 2010 20:52 GMT
#26
I don't understand how this works (1st timer), seems a bit broken to me.

Do you GAIN points when a player on your anti-team loses? Or is it a straight up downhill? Don't see an answer to that anywhere.

This fantasy is for R3 WL only, right? How can trades be of any value if we don't know who is going to play how many games (unless a commonly used player hits a slump and you just want to get rid of him).

Since we can assume that some players will get to play MUCH more often than others, seems the only logical way to go is to pick 2-3 godly players that are sure to play OFTEN (and win often), and as for the rest just get players that are surely never going to play, the price of which is 0-1. This will maximize the quality of the players you can buy. There is no compensation of any kind for imbalanced play times.

As for the anti-team, if they don't bring you points when those players lose, then why not just pick players that never get to play, and never experience a loss of points due to them winning?
"But on a more serious note..." -everyone on this forum at some point.
ItsBigfoot
Profile Blog Joined December 2009
United States432 Posts
Last Edited: 2010-01-20 21:06:22
January 20 2010 21:04 GMT
#27
On January 21 2010 05:52 Hier wrote:
I don't understand how this works (1st timer), seems a bit broken to me.

Do you GAIN points when a player on your anti-team loses? Or is it a straight up downhill? Don't see an answer to that anywhere.

This fantasy is for R3 WL only, right? How can trades be of any value if we don't know who is going to play how many games (unless a commonly used player hits a slump and you just want to get rid of him).

Since we can assume that some players will get to play MUCH more often than others, seems the only logical way to go is to pick 2-3 godly players that are sure to play OFTEN (and win often), and as for the rest just get players that are surely never going to play, the price of which is 0-1. This will maximize the quality of the players you can buy. There is no compensation of any kind for imbalanced play times.

As for the anti-team, if they don't bring you points when those players lose, then why not just pick players that never get to play, and never experience a loss of points due to them winning?


in the last league, you gained points for an anti-teams loss, in this, it's kinda impossible for them to go negative since winner's league scoring is 1 for showing up and -1 for losing, so technically it's downhill only

also, the downside of picking flash/jaedong/stork and 3 1 pointers is that you only have 3 sources of points max, and if someone else on their team (jangbi/violet/hiya) beats 2-3 players, they get one win tops, and outside of jaedong the top players aren't even guaranteed to play.

The trick is to get mid priced (you can get 1 8+ player if you're frugal elsewhere) players who you think will do better than expected, particularly those on teams where they'll see more play. that way you get players putting up flash-like numbers, while having enough money to fill your team out with decent players instead of fillers worth 1-2 points.

and anti-team has a minimum number of points you have to use, so you have to pick at least someone good. 13 points means that at worst you pick flash, a 1 and a 2
Kal Fighting!
TwoToneTerran
Profile Joined March 2009
United States8841 Posts
January 20 2010 21:07 GMT
#28
Just imagine WL as a large series of ace games that are less valuable than past ace games. You don't know exactly who is playing, but you can get a general idea given a team's make up, the map, and who's likely to be playing on that map when the time comes to send someone else out.

If scoring is anything like last time, when someone on your anti team loses and their team loses, you will indeed gain one point. It's not a lot but it's nice to not gain points more than get a scraggly one.

You can't pick players that never get to play because of the 13 point limit. Sure it'd be nice to grab 2 ace players who never get air time, but ehn you need a 11 point player -- which is impossible, since 10 is the highest starting value. It's better to go for longshots who arelikely to lose in the unpredictable format of WL than grab whoever you think might not play.

There's also plenty of reason not to grab godly players and a bunch of scrubs -- the bunch of scrubs could end up losing, you still need to pick a team which is usually the most important scoring pick, and you'll fall behind to people who took the risk of getting maybe, say, one top tier player and a few middling players capable of all killing -- remember last WL, the twins Yarnc and Luxury were the first to all kill and both are fairly cheap this season. Are you willing to gamble on them not playing similarly and just going for "shoe ins," ? Because a lot of people have a Bisu/Flash/Jaedong team and unless your anti team is perfect, you're just gonna end up in the low 200s with absolutely no trading power because more than half your team is pointless.

FPL is won with trades, for the most part. So a small pack of expensive players may net you a lot of gross points, but it'll hurt you in the long run.
Remember Violet.
Carnivorous Sheep
Profile Blog Joined November 2008
Baa?21245 Posts
January 20 2010 21:18 GMT
#29
Reading luxury chaos theory made me laugh haha.
TranslatorBaa!
Hier
Profile Blog Joined November 2009
2391 Posts
January 20 2010 21:33 GMT
#30
Well, what I was trying to emphasize is not going for an imbalance of win % players (1 player with 90% win rate and 1 player with 10% win rate), but going for an imbalance of play times (1 player guaranteed to play 1-4 games per week and 1 player guaranteed to play 0 games per week). As a bonus if you pick a player who never plays but is on the team you chose (that wins often), then he will bring you points without even playing.

As for the anti-team, yes I forgot about the $13 limit, but regardless of that; one would want to go for players who play rarely, rather than players who play badly. This protects you from any unforeseen winning streaks.

I guess all in all, I slightly dislike the fact that a player will gain a point JUST for appearance. This a) protects that player from losing points (unless the team lost) and b) shifts the focus from player ability to player appearance rate.
"But on a more serious note..." -everyone on this forum at some point.
ItsBigfoot
Profile Blog Joined December 2009
United States432 Posts
Last Edited: 2010-01-20 21:55:32
January 20 2010 21:54 GMT
#31
On January 21 2010 06:33 Hier wrote:
Well, what I was trying to emphasize is not going for an imbalance of win % players (1 player with 90% win rate and 1 player with 10% win rate), but going for an imbalance of play times (1 player guaranteed to play 1-4 games per week and 1 player guaranteed to play 0 games per week). As a bonus if you pick a player who never plays but is on the team you chose (that wins often), then he will bring you points without even playing.

As for the anti-team, yes I forgot about the $13 limit, but regardless of that; one would want to go for players who play rarely, rather than players who play badly. This protects you from any unforeseen winning streaks.

I guess all in all, I slightly dislike the fact that a player will gain a point JUST for appearance. This a) protects that player from losing points (unless the team lost) and b) shifts the focus from player ability to player appearance rate.


but here's the thing, you don't know anything outside the first player. you could just pick flash and expect him to all-kill every team, but if he gets played last and luxury/violet show up with their game faces on, you just wasted a third of you team. and yeah, you can pick some random on kt who never sees play, but you'd only be getting 1 point per game, compared to someone plays and wins a game, who gets 3 (appearance, win, loss, team win). which might not seem like much, but it's 300% more and that adds up over time (11 games in and it's 11 points to 33 points)

and you can do that with anti team, but the unplayed players are worth next to nothing, so you'd have to take a big gamble on a 8-10$ player to pull it off.
Kal Fighting!
Hot_Bid
Profile Blog Joined October 2003
Braavos36401 Posts
January 20 2010 22:13 GMT
#32
for all of you who think luxury is overpriced, put him on your anti-team, i dare you
@Hot_Bid on Twitter - ESPORTS life since 2010 - http://i.imgur.com/U2psw.png
Phelix
Profile Blog Joined July 2008
1931 Posts
January 20 2010 22:47 GMT
#33
Good information on the Luxury Chaos Theory, Hot_Bid. It seems that when Luxury fails, Yarnc succeeds, and vice versa. At least that's what I think.

Usually teams have 2-3 strong players, and that the 4th player in the potential lineup is the hardest part to guess. With no race restrictions, the picture becomes more clear, such as SKT not having to use Zergs, or Woongjin not having to use Terrans. Betting on that 4th appearance is my strategy this season, as well as having solid all-around players. Teams are more balanced this season.

As for trading, I feel that it is not as important in Winner's League, because things happen in hot/cold streaks within a match. The only reason I would trade is if the team sends out the same player twice in one week. Of course, you can take this opinion with a grain of salt, as I am one of the worst traders.
Venture Capital is better off spent on lottery tickets rather than investing in E-Sports; you'll get a far better return. The difference is simple: Koreans are tryharding at the game, foreigners are tryharding in real-life.
thopol
Profile Blog Joined May 2008
Japan4560 Posts
January 20 2010 22:54 GMT
#34
I think I'm going to use the same strategy that gave me success last time. I will put players I like on my team, which will end up being strongly weighted to follow STX's success or failure. I will put players I dislike on my antiteam, and hopefully Fantasy keeps doing so delightfully poorly.
Crunchums
Profile Blog Joined December 2008
United States11144 Posts
January 20 2010 23:29 GMT
#35
Lineup appearances from last round by team:
+ Show Spoiler +
Bisu - 11
BeSt - 8
fantasy - 7
n.Die_soO - 7
Canata - 6
Thezerg - 2
s2 - 2
Hyuk - 1

HiyA - 11
Jaedong - 10
Killer - 10
Spear - 5
PerfectMan - 4
ggaemo - 2
BackHo - 1
Sky[kaL] - 1

EffOrt - 11
Movie - 10
sKyHigh - 9
Hydra - 5
sAviOr - 3
Iris - 2
Nbs - 2
Snow - 1
Orion - 1

Really - 11
Action - 9
UpMaGiC - 8
GosI[Flying] - 7
hyvaa - 4
SangHo - 3
Tester - 2

Calm - 11
Kal - 11
hero - 8
Hwasin - 5
FrOzean - 5
Shuttle - 2
Bogus - 1
Last - 1

RorO - 11
Mind - 9
Pure - 9
Shine - 7
LuCifer - 2
BaBy - 2
Midas - 2
NaDa - 1
Major - 1

Leta - 11
HoGiL - 8
YellOw[ArnC] - 6
Horang2 - 5
type-b - 4
go.go - 3
SeCret - 3
HakSoo - 1
Tazza - 1
herb - 1
Justin - 1

ZerO - 11
free - 9
Kwanro - 6
MVP - 6
GuemChi - 3
Neo.G_Soulkey - 2
Special - 2
PianO - 2
Crazy-Hydra - 2
hOn_sin - 1

Violet - 11
Flash - 10
Luxury - 8
HoeJJa - 4
815 - 4
fOrGG - 2
FireFist - 2
Stats - 1
Tempest - 1
Barracks - 1

JangBi - 10
Stork - 10
firebathero - 6
great - 5
oDin - 5
TurN - 4
M18M - 1
Miracle - 1
Juni - 1
Brave - 1

Sea - 10
HyuN - 9
Light - 8
han - 8
Jaehoon - 4
Saint - 2
Peace - 2
Pusan - 1

RuBy - 9
DarkElf - 8
YellOw - 7
GoRush - 6
Anytime - 5
Much - 4
Reach - 2
Casy - 2
XellOs - 1
brood war for life, brood war forever
motbob
Profile Blog Joined July 2008
United States12546 Posts
January 21 2010 00:29 GMT
#36
On January 21 2010 07:13 Hot_Bid wrote:
for all of you who think luxury is overpriced, put him on your anti-team, i dare you

You know what?? I think I will!!!! So there!!
ModeratorGood content always wins.
Jackal03
Profile Joined October 2009
Brazil7469 Posts
January 21 2010 00:32 GMT
#37
i hope oz becomes jaedong oz again

BW is back
Kenpachi
Profile Blog Joined August 2009
United States9908 Posts
January 21 2010 00:33 GMT
#38
when i click Barracks' ID in the FPL, i get a protoss that retired
Nada's body is South Korea's greatest weapon.
Kyuukyuu
Profile Blog Joined January 2009
Canada6263 Posts
January 21 2010 00:38 GMT
#39
damn players are all hella expensive. seems not worth it to have a decent player that can go 50-50 with most A-class gamers (+2 win -1 loss) because it'll cost me 4-6 points when I can just get a scrub on a good team and go for team win points :\
Nevuk
Profile Blog Joined March 2009
United States16280 Posts
January 21 2010 00:58 GMT
#40
Flash's theory apparently is that Luxury is only decent during odd-numbered rounds.
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