EPTI began my first Liquibet two or three seasons ago & almost won first place if not for a critical vote I got wrong at the end :\ I just wanted to share a few tips on the patterns I've gathered over the past year or so ^^ the irony is that I'll probably start losing my rank after writing this ^^;
There is a huge emphasis on predicting upsets in the Liquibet. CruiseR won last season's Liquibet with 64.35% accuracy. Sixty-four percent. For every two matches he predicted correctly, he missed one. And he won. In general terms, those are pretty shitty odds.
General Ideas
- Risky Behavior -- You can't be afraid to take the risk for an upset. It's always possible for a potential landslide rape to become an upset. Remember, sixty-fucking-four percent for first place last season. Plus, it's such a good feeling hitting upsets that everyone misses, but that shouldn't undermine a player's dominance in a particular Starleague.
- Ranking -- Being 1st is relative to the decisions of everyone else. If everyone had a one percent chance of correcting guessing the winner and you, five, you'd still be first place by the end of the season despite your shitty guess rate. By blindly following what everyone else is choosing, you're not going to end up at any significant ranking, just like everyone else. Recognize that most people don't take risks and end up nowhere, and recognize when an upset can definitely happen and few people will go for it. Conversely, don't go for the underdog for a majority of the games.
- Popular Belief -- Just don't listen. When the average TLer starts hitting at least 75% in accuracy, start listening -_-;
- Bias -- Even though it's obvious, think with your head, not your heart. That means removing all bias you've accumulated over the past years, i.e. players lose their edge. People always "vote with their hearts" (which is essentially just wistful thinking) and then complain about their ranking or the players later on. Don't do that shit.
- Chance -- Most of the TL population playing the liquibet would fare better by flipping a coin, which is kinda sad -_- For fun, make a secondary TL account and vote for the opposite player from your main account. There's a pretty good chance it'll do better than your main account.
- Research -- Even though it seems that luck dictates much of Liquibet, there's a reason why the top rankers consistently rank high season after season. You have to hit those upsets. Hopefully, every choice you make will be more thoroughly thought out than hastily chosen.
The Process
- Which of the Players is more dominating/streaking currently?
- Is any Player overrated? underrated? in the specific match-up?
- Read the user comments.
- Look for high rankers' explanations for their decisions.
- Who does the general TL population think will win? (Why are they wrong?)
- Weigh the Players' styles & experience.
- Ponder all these ideas until you have a decision.
- Has the Player been practicing this MU or ignoring it for another MU?
Additional Info
- Mirror Match-ups -- There are tons of upsets in MM's. Go for the underdog unless the favorite is just too dominating, and even then be wary.
- Unknown vs. Unknown -- These are retarded so I pick the lesser known (because most people pick the one they recognize), or I choose T>Z, Z>P, P>T (or whatever the current match-up stats dictate).
