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Who were the unluckiest finalists within the context of the match-up they had to play in the finals of a major tournament, especially the chance the map pool gave them in terms of winning?
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This is all the possible ways a best-of-five series can end in triumph for a player in question. Given the order of the maps, I will attempt to calculate which player was given the least chance of being able to win the finals, by tallying the all possibilities of the ten combinations listed above.
The record of the player in question will be excluded from the match-up record for each of the maps, because I wanted to know the possibility of any other player of the same race being able to win, because one player winning it all may skew the statistics a little too much for my liking.
Without further ado, here are the top ten unluckiest players in terms of which match-up they played in the finals, and the chance the map pool gave them within the context of that specific match-up, without actually taking into account the records of the players in question, but rather looking at the entire records of everybody else.
1. JangBi in Lost Saga MSL
![[image loading]](http://pds.joins.com/news/component/htmlphoto_mmdata/2009/03/19/htm_200903191005100107000001070100-001.jpg)
Map order: Neo Harmony, Carthage, Destination, Byzantium 2, Neo Harmony
PvZ win rate on Neo Harmony excluding JangBi's records: 14.29%
PvZ win rate on Carthage excluding JangBi's records: 25%
PvZ win rate on Destination excluding JangBi's records: 42.86%
PvZ win rate on Byzantium 2 excluding JangBi's records: 30.61%
The possibility of protoss zerg player not named JangBi winning this series: 9.95%
Comments: Holy shit. I totally forgot about the map pool imbalance that Lost Saga MSL had in terms of the protoss-versus-zerg match-up. I mistakenly thought it was the second place curse that JangBi used to have that held him back, but quite clearly the map pools were ridiculously hard for him as well. Quite clearly, I should have noticed problems with the map pool if sAviOr out of all people could defeat Bisu in a straight-up match. With the circumstances giving JangBi a mind-boggling single digit expected win rate, it is astounding how that particular narrative wasn't driven home more, especially since how map pool problems were always addressed when it affected more popular players such as Jaedong, sAviOr, or Flash. I guess this tournament goes to show the chasm in power of fan-driven narratives between popular players, and those who were neglected in terms of attention from the general public. I'm certainly guilty of it.
2. Jaedong in Arena MSL
![[image loading]](http://file.instiz.net/data/file/20131224/8/d/1/8d1c31201a641a266fe03b77afba655e.jpg)
Map order: Colosseum, Othello, Tiamat, Athena, Colosseum
ZvT win rate on Colosseum excluding Jaedong's records: 36%
ZvT win rate on Othello excluding Jaedong's records: 29.31%
ZvT win rate on Tiamat excluding Jaedong's records: 0%
ZvT win rate on Athena excluding Jaedong's records: 40%
The possibility of any zerg player not named Jaedong winning this series: 12.87%
Comments: One of the most bullshit map pool for a major individual tournament finals I have found thus far. Not only was the entire map pool unfavaourable for the zerg race, one of the maps, Tiamat, was an abomination that didn't allow any hope for the zerg against the terran race. fOrGG took his teammate down with surgical precision in a clean 3-0 sweep, and some people at the time pointed to this tournament as to why sAviOr was superior to Jaedong, due to the fact that Jaedong was unable to overcome the difficulty of his situation.
3. Stork in EVER 2007 OGN StarLeague
![[image loading]](http://thumbnail.egloos.net/600x0/http://pds18.egloos.com/pds/201009/01/62/b0086762_4c7e306c40528.jpg)
Map order: Persona, Katrina, Fantasy II, Blue Storm, Persona
PvZ win rate on Persona excluding Stork's records: 0%
PvZ win rate on Katrina excluding Stork's records: 60.33%
PvZ win rate on Fantasy II excluding Stork's records: 50%
PvZ win rate on Blue Storm excluding Stork's records: 49.35%
The possibility of protoss zerg player not named Stork winning this series: 14.89%
Comments: One of the few cases where I seriously regretted taking the records of the player in question out of the equation. Although it is undeniable that Persona was a god-awful map, taking out Stork's records leaves us with just one protoss-versus-zerg match played by TheROCK, who isn't exactly the sole protoss representative everybody hoped for. What makes this entry a little problematic is the fact that the rest of the map pool was quite good for the protoss race. The combination of Persona being played in both games one and five, the general imbalance it had as a map, and the tiny sample size of matches it had during its short stint as a map used in a professional setting, created the perfect storm for boosting Stork way up the list. What's ironic is that despite the huge statistical ramifications Persona had as a map for my particular formula to rank the misfortunes of various finalists, Stork ended up winning both his protoss-versus-zerg matches on this map: one against Jaedong in the group stages, and his sole victory in the finals versus Jaedong. Even with the horrible balance issues that Persona had, I personally don't think this finals warrants a placing as high as this.
4. July in Shinhan 2005 OGN StarLeague
![[image loading]](http://contents.dt.co.kr/images/201001/2010012002019922733002.jpg)
Map order: Pioneer Period, Ride of Valkyries, Sin 815, Rush Hour 2, Pioneer Period
ZvT win rate on Pioneer Period excluding July's records: 16.67%
ZvT win rate on Ride of Valkyries excluding July's records: 51.06%
ZvT win rate on Sin 815 excluding July's records: 40%
ZvT win rate on Rush Hour 2 excluding July's records: 42%
The possibility of any zerg player not named July winning this series: 19.80%
Comments: One of the more over-looked finals in terms of how lopsided the map pool was for one player. July only had one favourable map in the form of Ride of Valyries, and the rest of the map pool was horrible, especially the map chosen to be played twice if the series went that far, Pioneer Period, noted for its incredibly close starting positions. iloveoov stomped July to the ground, and even defeated July on Ride of Valyries after an incredibly nail-biting game.
5. FanTaSy in Bacchus 2010 OGN StarLeague
![[image loading]](http://pds13.egloos.com/pds/200907/14/00/f0024400_4a5c35aa3585b.jpg)
Map order: Gladiator, Aztec, Pathfinder, Icarus, Gladiator
TvP win rate on Gladiator excluding FanTaSy's records: 27.27%
TvP win rate on Aztec excluding FanTaSy's records: 30.43%
TvP win rate on Pathfinder excluding FanTaSy's records: 33.33%
TvP win rate on Icarus excluding FanTaSy's records: 52.83%
The possibility of any terran player not named FanTaSy winning this series: 21.78%
Comments: I initially overlooked how FanTaSy managed to overcome all odds to defeat Stork on incredibly difficult set of maps, with Icarus being the sole battleground where the terran race was favoured against the protoss race. Stork repeated his mistake of being incredibly complacent with his build orders with the knowledge that the map pool was quite favoured towards him, something he should have learned from his crushing defeat versus Flash in the finals for Bacchus 2008 OGN StarLeague. One of the most incredible against-the-odds performances from any player in history, and FanTaSy succeeds in being the only terran player on this list.
6. Stork in Incruit OGN StarLeague
![[image loading]](http://www.segye.com/content/image/2008/11/02/20081102000433_0.jpg)
Map order: Chupung-Ryeong, Medusa, Return of the King, Plasma, Chupung-Ryeong
PvT win rate on Chupung-Ryeong excluding Stork's records: 18.75%
PvT win rate on Medusa excluding Stork's records: 55.56%
PvT win rate on Return of the King excluding Stork's records: 41.75%
PvT win rate on Plasma excluding Stork's records: 43.75%
The possibility of any protoss player not named Stork winning this series: 23.87%
Comments: In a strange reversal of fortune, Stork was the one with the severe map pool disadvantage against FanTaSy this time round. Chupung-Ryeong, the map that was used for both games one and five, was an extremely potent map for the terran race, and a nightmare for most protoss players. Stork was an odd-ball, being undefeated on this map versus the terran race, as well as gathering more number of victories than the rest of the protoss players added together.
7. sAviOr in Shinhan OGN StarLeague S3
![[image loading]](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/3/32/Shinhan3winner.png/260px-Shinhan3winner.png)
Map order: Longinus 2, Neo Arkanoid, Reverse Temple, Hitchhiker, Longinus 2
ZvT win rate on Longinus 2 excluding sAviOr's records: 37.79%
ZvT win rate on Neo Arkanoid excluding sAviOr's records: 24.29%
ZvT win rate on Reverse Temple excluding sAviOr's records: 32.86%
ZvT win rate on Hitchhiker excluding sAviOr's records: 48.67%
The possibility of any zerg player not named sAviOr winning this series: 24.57%
Comment: The only zerg player on this list to truly overcome the bullshit map pool, sAviOr had to battle against one of the worst map pools in memory as far as zerg-versus-terran goes, and somehow managed to miraculously overcome some of the best terran players of his era in the form of Midas, Iris, and NaDa. One of the most electrifying performances of any gamer in history, especially in terms of a single match-up. The most satisfying zerg-versus-terran storyline the professional Brood War scene has ever created thus far, from which most of sAviOr's legacy is built around.
8. Jaedong in BigFile MSL
![[image loading]](https://t1.daumcdn.net/news/201009/03/fomos/20100903202504890.jpeg)
Map order: Polaris Rhapsody, Odd-Eye 3, Fighting Sprit, Triatholon
ZvT win rate on Polaris Rhapsody excluding Jaedong's records: 34.48%
ZvT win rate on Odd-Eye 3 excluding Jaedong's records: 16.67%
ZvT win rate on Fighting Spirit excluding Jaedong's records: 46.67%
ZvT win rate on Triatholon excluding Jaedong's records: 53.85%
The possibility of any zerg player not named Jaedong winning this series: 26.39%
Comment: Jaedong had numerous battles against Flash, but the only best-of-five series between the two that went to full five games had its battleground take place on a map pool that was less than optimal in terms of balance. A close series that sparked a lot of heated arguments between fans of Jaedong and Flash, some of which I remember being in the thick of.
9. YellOw in Coca-Cola OGN StarLeague
![[image loading]](http://file.instiz.net/data/file/20131220/5/f/7/5f77369c767243f492d605deae41284d.png)
Map order: Neo Hall of Vahalla, Neo Jungle Story, Neo Legacy of Char, Ragnarok, Neo Hall of Vahalla
ZvT win rate on Neo Hall of Vahalla excluding YellOw's records: 29.17%
ZvT win rate on Neo Jungle Story excluding YellOw's records: 39.39%
ZvT win rate on Neo Legacy of Char excluding YellOw's records: 84.21%
ZvT win rate on Ragnarok excluding YellOw's records: 0%
The possibility of any zerg player not named YellOw winning this series: 27.04%
Comment: Aside from Neo Legacy of Char, the saving grace for YellOw, the rest of the maps were some of the worst maps ever created, and YellOw would go on to win all the maps that the rest of the zerg race succeeded in having a win rate over 30% in, but lost both his games on Neo Hall of Vahalla, and of course, Ragnarok, a lock-in for one of the worst maps of all time. A series that gave birth to the most celebrated rivalry of all time, but one that also sparked conspiracy theories about whether Ongamenet gave BoxeR the preferential treatment due to his star status.
10. FanTaSy in Jin Air OGN StarLeague
![[image loading]](http://www.newscj.com/news/photo/201109/95740_74853_5346.jpg)
Map order: Pathfinder, La Mancha, Gladiator, Neo Bloody Ridge, Pathfinder
TvP win rate on Pathfinder excluding FanTaSy's records: 33.33%
TvP win rate on La Mancha excluding FanTaSy's records: 40.28%
TvP win rate on Gladiator excluding FanTaSy's records: 27.27%
TvP win rate on Neo Bloody Ridge excluding FanTaSy's records: 60.61%
The possibility of any terran player not named FanTaSy winning this series: 29.33%
Comments: FanTaSy was constant fixture for the last three OGN StarLeagues, despite the map pool being less than optimal versus in the terran-versus-protoss match-up. FanTaSy managed to play on map pools that gave better odds than the season before, but JangBi wasn't going to fall for the same traps that his more naive teammate fell into. FanTaSy was able to push JangBi to the brink, but it wasn't enough to overcome an in-form JangBi on this difficult set of maps apart from Neo Bloody Ridge.
I tried to make this list as comprehensive as possible, but this is by no means set in stone, and there could be a plethora of finals that had lopsided map pools for a certain player that I've glossed over by mistake. I'll edit the list as time passes by if I come across any finals that had even more of a map pool issue for a certain player.
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Fascinating stuff. It made me want to go through all those games again, many of which I have never seen. Sweet read.
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I think you should have mentioned the game numbers in brackets at least (if you already took the time to research), these percentages can be misleading, can`t they?
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On November 29 2017 21:55 noname_ wrote:
I think you should have mentioned the game numbers in brackets at least (if you already took the time to research), these percentages can be misleading, can`t they?
I didn't think it would be worth mentioning, but here's the possibility of a non-Jaedong zerg winning the finals of Arena MSL given the order of the maps:
Map order: Colosseum, Othello, Tiamat, Athena, Colosseum
ZvT win rate on Colosseum excluding Jaedong's records: 36%
ZvT win rate on Othello excluding Jaedong's records: 29.31%
ZvT win rate on Tiamat excluding Jaedong's records: 0%
ZvT win rate on Athena excluding Jaedong's records: 40%
A) WWW: 0.36 x 0.2931 x 0 = 0
B) WWLW: 0.36 x 0.2931 x 1 x 0.4 = 0.0422064
C) WWLLW: 0.36 x 0.2931 x 1 x 0.6 x 0.36 = 0.022791456
D) WLWW: 0.36 x 0.7069 x 0 x 0.4 = 0
E) WLWLW: 0.36 x 0.7069 x 0 x 0.6 x 0.36 = 0
F) WLLWW: 0.36 x 0.7069 x 1 x 0.4 x 0.36 = 0.036645696
G) LWWW: 0.64 x 0.2931 x 0 x 0.4 = 0
H) LWWLW: 0.64 x 0.2931 x 0 x 0.6 x 0.36 = 0
I) LWLWW: 0.64 x 0.2931 x 1 x 0.4 x 0.36 = 0.027012096
J) LLWWW: 0.64 x 0.7069 x 0 x 0.4 x 0.36 = 0
(A+B+C+D+E+F+G+H+I+J) x 100 = 12.8655648 (%)
The same excruciatingly dull process was used to calculate the possibility of a series win for the rest of the finals also. Once the numbers were I achieved, I deleted all the work-up leading up to it because I never wanted to see those numbers again, but you could check the numbers yourself in case there are any errors, if that is what you wish for.
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On November 29 2017 15:20 Letmelose wrote:
Comment: Jaedong had numerous battles against Flash, but the only best-of-five series between the two that went to full five games had its battleground take place on a map pool that was less than optimal in terms of balance.
Guess you forgot ASL S2 semi-final. Jaedong vs Flash ended 2-3, which means they played two times to full five games. Or do you talk about finals only?
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Uh, you misunderstood me. I meant the win/loss ratios for specific maps, for example: Colosseum: 18(t)-10(z), 35% z win excluding JD and prior the finals.
+ Show Spoiler +Your calculations feel like they`re not linked Brood War but rather.... XCOM. 
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On November 29 2017 23:13 oEkY wrote:Show nested quote +On November 29 2017 15:20 Letmelose wrote:
Comment: Jaedong had numerous battles against Flash, but the only best-of-five series between the two that went to full five games had its battleground take place on a map pool that was less than optimal in terms of balance. Guess you forgot ASL S2 semi-final. Jaedong vs Flash ended 2-3, which means they played two times to full five games. Or do you talk about finals only?
I guess I should have mentioned that this topic is exclusive to events that took place when professional Brood War was active.
I personally believe what goes on today is a vastly different realm of competition, where Shuttle is a champion of the most prestigious tournament available, and Bisu is not. Discussions over what happened in the ASL is a topic for another time. I am of the opinion that there is no continuum here, because professional Brood War, and competitive Brood War are entirely different beasts, and deserve a distinction when discussed.
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Do you know kind sir anything about (in the times of OSL/MSL) were there any attempts to implement doulbe eliminiation?
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On November 29 2017 23:46 noname_ wrote:
Do you know kind sir anything about (in the times of OSL/MSL) were there any attempts to implement doulbe eliminiation?
MBC Game tried to differentiate themselves from Ongamenet by implementing extensive usage of the double elimination system from 2003 to 2006 (Stout MSL ~ Pringles MSL S2), possibly because they wanted repeat champions associated with the MBC Game brand, which is why players such as NaDa, iloveoov, and sAviOr all made a name for themselves in leagues hosted by MBC Game during this era.
MBC Game had a tendency to go for more generic map pools, as well as using various methods that seemed to make it easier for defending champions to sustain their level of form, whereas leagues hosted by Ongamenet were more volatile in nature. It seemed to me that Ongamenet had much less concern for which players made it to the finals, perhaps due to the fact that they were less chained to star power in order to have commercial success, as shown by the huge commercial success of Daum OGN StarLeague, one of the most viewed Brood War tournaments of all time.
I don't think it is a coincidence that out of the nine consecutive seasons of MSL where the double elimination format had a significant part, we only had five champions (Nal_rA, iloveoov, GoRush, sAviOr, and ChoJJa). Ongamenet never had a time frame where only five champions were birthed from nine consecutive seasons of OGN StarLeague.
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Interesting that Jaedong comes up two times here, with a little bit more luck he should have won at least one of these finals.
Now that you did this it would be interesting to look at the big title winners (the bonjwas, Jaedong, Bisu, etc) and look how favored their race was in each finals. Not saying you have to do that, just a thought (maybe i will look into that later on)
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On November 30 2017 01:48 The_Red_Viper wrote:
Interesting that Jaedong comes up two times here, with a little bit more luck he should have won at least one of these finals.
Now that you did this it would be interesting to look at the big title winners (the bonjwas, Jaedong, Bisu, etc) and look how favored their race was in each finals. Not saying you have to do that, just a thought (maybe i will look into that later on)
I checked a few more tournaments, and made changes to the original list.
Bisu doesn't really have a non-mirror finals where he faced a really terrible map pool. Here is Flash's most famous tournament finals where he had to overcome a bad map pool.
+ Show Spoiler +Flash in Bacchus 2008 OGN StarLeague
Map order: Blue Storm, Katrina, Troy, Fantasy, Blue Storm
TvP win rate on Blue Storm excluding Flash's records: 50.51%
TvP win rate on Katrina excluding Flash's records: 44.04%
TvP win rate on Troy excluding Flash's records: 41.67%
TvP win rate on Fantasy excluding Flash's records: 42.62%
The possibility of any terran player not named Flash winning this series: 42.27%
It's a really time consuming process, but I'll eventually get the list accurate, I hope.
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Your blogs are always a joy to read. Thanks!
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On November 29 2017 22:15 Letmelose wrote:Show nested quote +On November 29 2017 21:55 noname_ wrote:
I think you should have mentioned the game numbers in brackets at least (if you already took the time to research), these percentages can be misleading, can`t they? I didn't think it would be worth mentioning, but here's the possibility of a non-Jaedong zerg winning the finals of Arena MSL given the order of the maps: Map order: Colosseum, Othello, Tiamat, Athena, Colosseum ZvT win rate on Colosseum excluding Jaedong's records: 36% ZvT win rate on Othello excluding Jaedong's records: 29.31% ZvT win rate on Tiamat excluding Jaedong's records: 0% ZvT win rate on Athena excluding Jaedong's records: 40% A) WWW: 0.36 x 0.2931 x 0 = 0 B) WWLW: 0.36 x 0.2931 x 1 x 0.4 = 0.0422064 C) WWLLW: 0.36 x 0.2931 x 1 x 0.6 x 0.36 = 0.022791456 D) WLWW: 0.36 x 0.7069 x 0 x 0.4 = 0 E) WLWLW: 0.36 x 0.7069 x 0 x 0.6 x 0.36 = 0 F) WLLWW: 0.36 x 0.7069 x 1 x 0.4 x 0.36 = 0.036645696 G) LWWW: 0.64 x 0.2931 x 0 x 0.4 = 0 H) LWWLW: 0.64 x 0.2931 x 0 x 0.6 x 0.36 = 0 I) LWLWW: 0.64 x 0.2931 x 1 x 0.4 x 0.36 = 0.027012096 J) LLWWW: 0.64 x 0.7069 x 0 x 0.4 x 0.36 = 0 (A+B+C+D+E+F+G+H+I+J) x 100 = 12.8655648 (%) The same excruciatingly dull process was used to calculate the possibility of a series win for the rest of the finals also. Once the numbers were I achieved, I deleted all the work-up leading up to it because I never wanted to see those numbers again, but you could check the numbers yourself in case there are any errors, if that is what you wish for.
You need to learn Excel
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United Kingdom12022 Posts
With the incruit OSL you forgot to mention it was in 2008 
Cool article though! One finals I'd like to add is FanTaSy in the tving OSL in 2012. Damn Jangbi T_T
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On November 30 2017 17:07 Qikz wrote:With the incruit OSL you forgot to mention it was in 2008 Cool article though! One finals I'd like to add is FanTaSy in the tving OSL in 2012. Damn Jangbi T_T
Let's see. I actually didn't think the map pool wasn't that terrible compared to some of the map pool discussed in this list. I'll take Jin Air OGN StarLeague as a point of reference.
Jin Air OGN StarLeague
Map order: Pathfinder, La Mancha, Gladiator, Neo Bloody Ridge, Pathfinder
TvP win rate on Pathfinder excluding FanTaSy's records: 33.33%
TvP win rate on La Mancha excluding FanTaSy's records: 40.28%
TvP win rate on Gladiator excluding FanTaSy's records: 27.27%
TvP win rate on Neo Bloody Ridge excluding FanTaSy's records: 60.61%
TVing OGN StarLeague
Map order: Neo Ground Zero, Neo Sniper Ridge, Neo Electric Circuit, Gladiator, Neo Ground Zero
TvP win rate on Neo Ground Zero excluding FanTaSy's records: 45.45%
TvP win rate on Neo Sniper Ridge excluding FanTaSy's records: 55.56%
TvP win rate on Neo Electric Circuit excluding FanTaSy's records: 45.45%
TvP win rate on Gladiator excluding FanTaSy's records: 27.27%
Both leagues were indeed quite difficult from a terran perspective, but I would venture that the odds of a non-FanTaSy terran player winning either series would be close to, or even over 30%, which would prevent it from being included on the list.
I crunched the numbers, and decided to add FanTaSy's exploits for Jin Air OGN StarLeague to the list. FanTaSy was somebody who had to play the usually unfavoured terran-versus-protoss match-up for the vast majority of his five finals, and he fought bravely against the Samsung Khan protoss players, both of whom were known for the protoss-versus-terran mastery. Stork was the more predictable of the two, but even he decided to break out of character for Incruit OGN StarLeague, being more crafty with his build orders and style to counter-act the map pool disadvantage he had. Stork actually had one of the worst mind games of all time when he felt like he had the advantage coming into a series, and would prepare the most predictable, unimaginative build orders which explains the numerous instances he got sweeped 0-3 in what was his best match-up by far.
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Amazing research!
I wonder if the finals that Flash participated in had a significant map pool advantage for terran or not
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United States10170 Posts
On December 05 2017 03:36 LG)Sabbath wrote:
Amazing research?
I wonder if the finals that Flash participated in had a significant map pool advantage for terran or not
Terrans cant have bad maps. Tesagi confirmed. Every map is tank imba. O.O
Great post as always Letmelose. Why hasn't this guy gotten a blue star yet?
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On December 05 2017 03:36 LG)Sabbath wrote:
Amazing research?
I wonder if the finals that Flash participated in had a significant map pool advantage for terran or not
Well, at the risk of over simplifying things, FanTaSy had the greatest peak of his career when the map pool used in individual leagues were kind of bad for terran-versus-protoss (maps such as Pathfinder, Aztec, and Gladiator), and on top of that he had to continually face-off against arguably the greatest protoss-versus-terran specialists of his generation in Stork and JangBi under those circumstances.
Flash, played six out of his eight finals in 2010, when the map pools weren't all that bad in the terran-versus-zerg match-up due to maps such as Odd-Eye, Polarish Rhapsody, and Ultimatum, and he faced off against arguably the greatest zerg-versus-terran specialists of his generation in Jaedong and EffOrt for five of those finals.
BigFile MSL was probably the worst out of the lot, which is why it makes it onto the top ten list, with three out of the four semi-finalists being terran players, and Jaedong being the sole zerg representative out of the final four. However, that one final where Flash had an overwhelming advantage over Jaedong does not necessarily represent the status quo for what kind of situation Flash under for the majority of his career finals.
Take Korean Air OGN StarLeague S2, for example:
Flash in Korean Air OGN StarLeague S2
Map order: Eye of the Storm, Polaris Rhapsody, Grand Line SE, Flight-Dreamliner, Eye of the Storm
TvZ win rate on Eye of the Storm excluding Flash's records: 51.06%
TvZ win rate on Polaris Rhapsody excluding Flash's records: 58.82%
TvZ win rate on Grand Line SE excluding Flash's records: 56.36%
TvZ win rate on Flight-Dreamliner excluding Flash's records: 33.33%
The possibility of any terran player not named Flash winning this series: 50.30%
I mean, Flash still had a slight edge over Jaedong in terms of the map pool here too, probably due to the fact that Flight-Dreamliner, the incredibly positionally imbalanced map (if you spawned at the bottom as terran versus zerg, it was pretty much a guaranteed defeat, although Flash thankfully spawned at the top during the finals), was used in game four, which is like the least statistically relevant game in a best-of-five. If that map was used for games one and five, for example, it would have statistically swung things around in Jaedong's favour.
The two finals where Flash had to play the terran-versus-protoss match-up had him at a statistical disadvantage, although the numbers weren't as extreme as some of the statistical disadvantage FanTaSy had to face.
Flash played the majority of his finals versus the zerg race, which has been historically speaking, the easier match-up for the terran players, while FanTaSy had to face protoss players for all but one of five finals during his professional career. Map pools play certainly play a part, but which match-up is played in the finals plays a large role as well, since finding overwhelmingly difficult map pools used in major individual league finals, for the terran race in the terran-versus-zerg match-up in particular, is quite harder than finding difficult map pools for the terran race in the terran-versus-protoss match-up.
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EPT
