There's this iphone game I've been playing that keeps bothering me because I don't know if the math makes sense to me.
Here's the problem:
For $5, I have the chance of getting one of the following items:
Common - 55%
Uncommon - 30%
Rare - 10%
Epic - 5%
So the way I see it.. for $5, I have a 5% chance to get the epic (best items). So to obtain an epic, it will cost me on average $100 ($5/0.05). By this math, I consider these items to be "worth":
Common - $9.09
Uncommon - $16.67
Rare - $50
Epic - $100
First off, is this a good way to determine what these items are worth? Also keep in mind that every time I spend $5, I will get an item guaranteed. When I think about it this way, wouldn't I consider a Common to be worth $5? But if that's the case, how do I determine the worth of the other items using this logic? My mind gets blown to pieces at this point as I don't know how much an item is worth! Help!
[EDIT] Actually there is a part 2 to this problem. I was going to save it for later, but might as well do it now.
So let's look at only the epic items, since that's what everyone wants to get.
There are 4 epic items in this pack. When you are awarded an epic, you basically have a 25% chance to get the specific epic you want. So on average, to get a specific epic, you would need to spend $400 right? ($100 to get an epic, divide by 0.25 to get the specific epic). But the thing is, at $400, you will have gotten 1 of each epic on average. So can I still say that the specific epic is worth $100 (part 1), or is it worth $400 (part 2), or somewhere in-between?